Please welcome GM Vice President of Treasurer, Investor Relations and Special Projects, Rocky
Gupta.
Good Good afternoon. I'm Rocky Kucher, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Welcome, everyone. We are very excited for you to hear the rapid progress we are making and the significant growth opportunities we have at GM. For those of you who've joined us here live, thank you.
I know for many of you here, our EV Day right here in March of last year was probably your last business trip before the pandemic. And then for some of you today, this may be your first time back on the road. So we really appreciate you making the effort to be with us here today. Our leadership has put together a great program, and we believe it will make your trip worthwhile. Now safety is the top priority at GM, And we've taken extensive measures to ensure this event is as safe as possible.
As part of this, we are following strict COVID protocols established by Corporate Medical Director. If you have any questions about this, please feel to speak to me or anyone on the GM team. Also, please take a moment to see where the exits are located so that in case of an emergency, you can access them quickly. We're also broadcasting this live via webcast. And I want to thank everyone joining us remotely.
The presentation materials will be posted on the Investor Relations website at the conclusion of today's broadcast. Note our forward looking statements. All of the discussions today, including the Q and A will be governed by this language. In addition, please see our disclosure on the vehicles and technology you will see today and our statement on non GAAP financial measures. So now without further ado, I'm proud to introduce GM's Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Mary Barra.
Well, hello, everyone, and welcome to General Motors' 2021 Investor Day. We are so excited to be hosting this event in person. So for those of you in the room, like Rocky said, thank you for making the trip And investing the time. But we do know that travel is not easy right now. And for some, it wasn't even an option.
So we appreciate everyone that is participating virtually. As we all continue to navigate the pandemic, The work the GM team has done to connect people to what matters has never been more important. And that's why today you will see unprecedented urgency, decisiveness, agility and breadth In our culture, our strategy, our execution and our determination to own the opportunities before us. General Motors is delivering the technologies that redefine how people and goods are moved. Our commitment to a vision of a world with 0 crashes, 0 emissions and 0 congestion has placed us ahead of much of the competition.
In electrification, with more than 30 EVs planned by 2025, including options for every price point and lifestyle. Software enabled services with an existing installed base of 16,000,000 connected vehicles already on the roads in the U. S. And Canada alone And autonomy with Super Cruise and Cruise. Our early investments in these three secular growth trends have transformed GM from automaker to platform innovator, a transformation that is Expected to double our revenue by 2,030, while also expanding our margins.
Based on vehicle sales and financing service revenue growth And more than $80,000,000,000 in new incremental revenues from software enabled services and new businesses like Cruise, BrightDrop, GM Defense and OnStar Insurance. We are going to walk you through our strategy to unlock this significant growth creation throughout the day and tomorrow. For now, I'm going to touch on a few of the key highlights. It all starts with beautifully designed and executed vehicles like those around me. We will grow profits from our core products while we capture Your number one EV market share in the U.
S. The Ultium EV platform allows GM to flexibly scale and realize our ambitions to put everyone in an EV. Investments in software and services, including Ultifi, will redefine vehicle ownership. And the reinvention of our digital channels will allow for a seamless customer experience, opening up $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 in additional annual revenues and significantly increasing our margins over the next 10 years. In addition, we have leadership from level 2 to level 5 autonomy.
Our ADAS to AV capabilities will unlock Massive data and revenue opportunities, while offering many people their first experience of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle. GM's unique combination of these attributes fueled by a culture of innovation will unlock new business opportunities. GM has the ability to scale with speed and quality because of our manufacturing capability and our manufacturing assets. We will convert more than 50% of our manufacturing footprint in North America and China to EV production by 2,030. At the center of this strategy are customers.
For years, General Motors has sold more vehicles in the U. S. Than any other automaker. And we are number 1 or number 2 in many other markets around the world, providing an installed base of loyal customers And a huge incremental growth opportunity to deliver software enabled services to that base. As our services go beyond the vehicle, GM customers will no longer be limited to just GM vehicle owners, but whatever customer we are serving, GM will use its hardware and software platforms to improve their daily experience, leading everyone on the journey to an all electric future.
Transformation and innovation have been part of the DNA of this company for over 100 years. General Motors was first incorporated in 190 8. And even then, our founders anticipated an incredible future of transportation. Their pioneering spirit that they demonstrated still inspires us today. It is the energy behind our vision of 0 crashes, 0 emissions and 0 congestion and the driving force behind expectations and redefine GM.
We have changed the world before and we're going to do it again. In these efforts, we are guided by our Board of Directors, which exemplifies our commitment to diversity and excellence. Individuals with experience of transformative change across a range of industries and a shared commitment to sustainability inclusivity. Yesterday, we announced the appointment of our newest board member, Anil Bushri, co founder and co CEO of Workday. Anil is a leading software innovator and a product visionary.
And like many members of our board, Anil is committed also to making A positive difference in this world. Alongside our board, our leadership team is the strongest it's ever been. A powerful mix of automotive, digital and other industry experience. We have proven leaders who are helping GM seize new opportunities By innovating on top of our existing core competencies, we are attracting talent at every level of the organization. We were early to embrace a culture that empowers employees to work how and where they can have the biggest impact.
We call it work appropriately. This exponentially increases the pool of talent that we can recruit, and we have seized the moment. More than 40% of our executive hires are from technology companies and 80% of our hires in the last year Our millennials are Gen Zs with an increasing number who are working in geographical tech hubs around the country and in some cases, the world. People with deep technology and digital experience who are joining us because of our vision and the way we work. People like our new Chief Digital Officer, Edward Coomer, who brings experience of building successful digital businesses and customer experiences.
He is an exciting addition to our executive team. When we announced our aspiration to be the world's most inclusive company And then again, when we announced plans to be carbon neutral by 2,040 and our aspiration to have all light duty vehicles be EV by 2,035, We received messages from people who wanted to join GM because they recognize the opportunity to affect positive change Far beyond the reach of many companies. We continue to build upon our commitment to positive change By independently validating our progress to meet the science based targets for Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. By investing in a $25,000,000 climate equity fund to help ensure that the people and communities most affected by climate change are not left behind And investing in anchor part as an anchor partner in breakthrough energy catalysts to help develop the technologies necessary for the country to achieve Net 0 emissions by 2,050. And we just announced that we are advancing our commitment to source 100% renewable energy to power U.
S. Facilities from 2030 now to 2025. ESG is not just a complement to our business strategy, It is foundational and fully integrated with our business strategy. Our role is not just to direct our own company's transformation, But to lead and influence others, to set standards that others will follow and to take everyone on the journey to a more equitable, a safer, All electric future. So let's talk about GM's strategy for growth that our leaders will unpack throughout the day.
Beautifully designed and executed vehicles are the first way we will affect change, and we will continue to improve our core product portfolio, Attracting more people into our ecosystem and putting everyone in an EV. I said that GM has transformed from automaker to platform innovator. As Mark will show, our products, our vehicles, they are platforms for growth and innovation. We've seen this transformation already occur in other areas like smartphones. Phones are no longer just hardware devices.
They are platforms for new software and services that have transformed some smartphone providers' revenue and margin profile. GM is currently designing and executing the most beautiful product portfolio, a product I've seen in my career, And not just the EV future lineup. As we roll out our next generation of EVs, we will continue to improve our ICE vehicles, Serving customers who rely on GM with experience they will also find on EVs, helping them embrace that transition To an all electric future and strengthening their commitment to General Motors and our ecosystem. We're able to do this because of the investments in hardware and software that we've made. Ken will walk you through updates in our Altium EV platform strategy.
Altium's ability to accept and automatically recalibrate itself to new battery chemistry safeguards our platform investments while we advance the science. The unique modularity and flexibility of the Altium platform opens opportunities beyond our own vehicles. Altium together with the Hydratech Fuel Cell platform Gives GM the potential to make planes, trains and automobiles and even boats into a 0 mission products. Now we have another key enabling platform, Ultifi. Ultifi is a software platform that will be shared across All GM brands, both ICE and EVs.
AltaPlay is made possible by the investments we made in General Motors' Vehicle Intelligence Platform, VIP for short. And this will unlock the ability to scale new software and services rapidly and securely across our entire fleet, Allowing customers to update their vehicles, to upgrade performance, download new content over the air And while establishing a new app based ecosystem across all of our products, marking the transition from software enabled to software defined vehicles. Hardware still matters, but through software, we will unlock new opportunities and experiences for our customers Just as the smartphone apps use the cameras and a phone and sensors to deliver new experience, we can do much more. A modern smartphone has 4 cameras and maybe a dozen sensors. A modern vehicle like the Cadillac Lyric Has up to 15 cameras and more than 100 sensors on board.
Imagine the features and functions we can unlock as Altify reimagines And what experiences the hardware can enable. And because UltaPhi will be available to future VIP enabled vehicles, It will be a key element of our strategy to keep improving our ICE portfolio while also helping create experiences that attract customers to our EVs. Together, Ultium and Ultifi provide a dual platform advantage that will allow GM to rapidly scale growth. Now alongside electrification and software enabled services, Autonomy completes the trifecta of technologies and platforms, transforming our product portfolio. We shared autonomous concept designs at CES this year and you will see more from us next year at CES.
Autonomous transportation, including personal autonomous vehicles and aerial mobility, they represent a significant opportunity, And we are leaders in this space. Cruise, the self driving startup majority owned by General Motors is leading the way in level 4 and 5 autonomy. And with in some cases, the most difficult driving conditions in the country where they're working right now, the streets of San Francisco. In addition, we are strengthening our current product portfolio with level 2 autonomy from Super Cruise. Super Cruise true hands free driver assistance technology outperforms all competitors in independent consumer testing.
We already are making money from Super Cruise from a subscription perspective. But as this technology comes to 22 vehicles by 2023, It promises even higher revenues based on the ability to offer new features and functionality to compatible vehicles over the air. And today, we announce Ultra Cruise. Ultra Cruise takes us one step closer to our goal of enabling hands free driving 95% of the time. We believe that when Ultra Cruise rolls out in 2023, It will be the most advanced Level 2 ADAS system in production use with even more valuable subscription opportunities.
New subscription revenues will be one of the largest contributors to our digital growth strategy. Alan Wetzler has been a key architect of that strategy since joining GM from Publicis Sapient just over a year ago. Alan will walk you through the details of the $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 a year opportunity in software and services. GM's 25 year leadership in connected services has really laid the foundation for our future digital growth, providing the data, the insights and the e commerce platforms that will power new services, new businesses and new revenues. And as we've learned from the resurgence from many traditional retailers, e commerce fulfillment is greatly aided by a physical footprint.
Our dealers and our dealer network are a competitive advantage for General Motors. They are critical to our commitment to put Customers at the center of our strategy. They're already located in key communities across the country and the globe, and we are working together To transform our customer experience, dramatically reduce cost and improve both of our margins. And as we've seen with new market entrants, when they fail to deliver on the post sales experience, we know having a physical presence for sales and servicing is an important part of what the customer wants. Customers can engage with us in whatever way they choose, whether 100% online, in a dealership or in any combination, which they will do with our new digital retail platform.
Now Pam Fletcher leads our global innovation organization, which was set up to incubate new startups within GM. Pam is going to share some examples today from her team, but the fact is we are innovating in almost every area of the company, From how we attract talent to how we integrate technology that now allows our designers to do things in hours days versus weeks months. Pam oversees around 20 startups right now of various sizes and maturity levels. The total addressable market of those startups Ranges from $3,000,000,000 for the smallest to $500,000,000,000 for the largest. The global innovations team's mission is clear.
It's to disrupt any industry where we see an opportunity to do things better as well as to open new markets like areal mobility. 2 of the disruptive examples Pam will expand on today are GM Defense and OnStar Insurance. In both of these examples, GM has the ability to rapidly scale and disrupt the industry using existing technology investments and core GM Now one business that's already graduated from our incubation process is BrightDrop, and we are excited to have Travis Katz Join us from Redpoint Ventures as CEO and President of BrightDrop. Travis is a Silicon Valley software entrepreneur who is moving Bright Drop from concept to commercialization. This is a perfect example of innovation tied to our vision Because it's not just a fleet of electric delivery vans, but a total mobility solution for last mile delivery.
Now one business I know you're going to be very eager to hear about is Cruise. We all know that Cruise has huge value creation potential. Their pioneering work developing fully autonomous technologies has attracted investment from Walmart, Microsoft, Honda and SoftBank. Dan Ammons, CEO of Cruise, will be here today to talk about near term commercialization of Cruise Ridesharing Services. Now a key enabler of our ability to successfully pivot is our ability of the manufacturing organization to operate with speed and agility, while maintaining quality that is core to our brand.
That first infantry squad vehicle for GM Defense was delivered at record speed. The EV600 from BrightDrop is the fastest vehicle program to market in GM's history. Manufacturing is a core competency for GM. Gerald Johnson and his team make it look easy, but trust me, our manufacturing scale is an enormous competitive advantage for General Motors. Finally, today, Paul will talk about the financial underpinnings of our transformational growth plan.
He will address the economics of our connected EV future and how our model is enhanced with the opportunity to grow higher margins and reoccurring revenues. He will also provide more detail on the potential of our new businesses and the overall investment in capital allocation plan. As you can see, we have multiple drivers of long term growth, and I have never been more confident We're more excited about the opportunities ahead. We are building ICE and electric vehicles that will be the best vehicles we've ever delivered. Vehicles that become platforms for growth and will redefine customer experiences and expectations.
We are delivering hardware that will help put everyone in an EV going beyond our own core portfolio. We're creating software enabled services, including the development Ultifi. And we're extending our lead in automated driver assistance with Ultra Cruise and further commercializing Super Cruise. And with Cruise, we are defining the commercialization strategies for Level 4 autonomy. We We're launching businesses that will bring new customers and new revenues to GM.
And thanks to GM Manufacturing, we're able to do this at scale with Speed, agility and quality. I said it earlier, but it's worth repeating. We have changed the world before, and we're doing it again. So thank you very much, and I hope you enjoy the rest of the afternoon.
Please welcome GM President, Marc Royce.
Well, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you, Mary. It was great, and as always, and thank you for joining us today. We really appreciate it. As Mary said, General Motors is well positioned for growth. I'm going to talk about the ways we're going to achieve that growth even as we transform the company to breakthrough to an all electric future.
We're going
to drive growth in many ways following our strategic vision, leveraging our advanced vehicle and software platforms And executing our plan with the advantages of our massive scale, our loyal customer base and that will grow as we expand with our portfolio. Let me briefly summarize the plan, and the rest of today's speakers will present the details, and you'll see most of it in action Tomorrow at Milford, which is very exciting. But we will invest in our core vehicles and grow that side of the business. We will keep them fresh and cutting edge to sustain the powerful business we already have and to continue to deliver profitability and cash flow to fund the future. We have our Ultium platform in place, and we're building out the EV fleet, which will drive meaningful growth As we heard to and head to 30 EVs by 2025.
Most importantly, that EV portfolio that we're putting together will be the And the broadest in the business with great entries from affordable high volume segments up to the top of the line. I'll show you what that means in terms of growth and portfolio mix in a moment, but the important thing to keep in mind Is that as we roll out the first of our new generation of EVs, they'll represent incredible incremental growth. Many buyers will be new GM customers. We have a market leading platform on the software side, the foundation upon which we will build a host of software enabled services that will grow revenue quickly And steadily. The vehicle intelligence platform that Mary mentioned is what enables Ultifi, the operating system that in turn Enables the continuous and seamless delivery of software features and services to the customer.
On top of that, We have a number of new businesses that will see us entering new markets and fueling our growth trajectory, including our AV business led by Cruise, which will drive significant value creation. Let me start with our portfolio mix. As we scale up to an EV portfolio that has enough breadth And vying to rival the margins in our current lineup, we're going to keep improving the most popular vehicles that customers love. Our ICE vehicles, especially our very profitable trucks and SUVs, are funding the future, as I have said many times before. They're still a part of the transformation growth strategy that we put together for this company.
This is truly a unique advantage we have And the ability to be agile and flexible and to accommodate consumer demand as we transition from ICE to EV. What you see behind me here is our future, and most of them will be on the road by 2025 as part of our 30 Global EV launches by 2025 and all of them, by the way, were purpose built from the ground up to be EVs. But as we prepare for that, we're improving the vehicles we have on the road right now. Case in point, it's not just the EVs that will get the advanced Software. Our ICE vehicles will get the same apps, features and improvements that our customers will value, and each one represents a revenue opportunity.
Another example, we're doing a mid cycle enhancement on our full size pickups and SUVs. And in 2025, when we launch the next generation, It will include new powertrains with major improvements in efficiency and performance. The creative innovation that underpins our EVs will eventually help drive tailpipe emissions down to 0 and that will also make our ICE vehicles significantly more efficient As we make that transition. An example of that efficiency improvement, the next engine portfolio update in our next generation full size trucks We'll deliver better than a 10% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to today's offerings. The mid cycle enhancement we launched for model year 2022 Has a 5.8% reduction in greenhouse gas, and the next gen models in 'twenty five are expected to have a further 4.7% reduction.
So while we're improving our ICE vehicles, we'll be growing our EV portfolio significantly, as you can see here. Our EV portfolio will grow quickly with new entries in a wide variety of segments. We'll likely be ahead of the infrastructure early on in the transition, Which is another reason we're working so hard to encourage and foster infrastructure growth in as many places as we can. We started down the path to all electric. We made a crucial decision to invest in a dedicated all electric platform and architecture That will have scale, flexibility and solid profitability.
And that's what we have in Ultium. We didn't just take our ICE pickup truck architecture and convert it to an EV. That's what other OEMs are doing, but we've moved way beyond that. Now, we're on our 3rd generation battery electric vehicle platform, a truly dedicated EV from the ground up approach. Simply put, we're able to do things that you just can't do if all you're doing is stuffing a battery into a system, into an existing vehicle.
That decision to invest in 100% dedicated platform gives us a distinct advantage versus other OEMs, and I'll tell you why. We have great flexibility in terms of design, engineering and packaging. The Ultium platform is hugely versatile And that frees up our design team from the constraints of an ICE platform, allowing them to create stunning vehicles That look unique and suit our brands. Its flexibility allows us to create a huge breadth of vehicles off of the same platform From a high volume compact vehicle or crossover to a large luxurious truck like the GMC Hummer EV. That leads to huge economies of scale and great cost savings as we go into production.
We can also include many features and enhancements in our dedicated EV platform that our competitors simply can't offer in a retrofit vehicle. A great example of that is our Silverado EV's 4 wheel Steer capability in its massive 24 inches wheels and tires. And today, we're also showing its stunning glass roof for the first time. We'll reveal the rest of it to the world at CES in January. I got to tell you, I'm so excited to show everybody this truck.
You can see it here, but we haven't been able to show the whole world quite yet. So I really don't think you're going to see another similarly equipped EV pickup on the market for a while, And that's just the beginning, for Silverado E. We won't just have one technological marvel of an electric pickup built From the ground up as a dedicated EV, we'll have 2, including the GMC Sierra EV pickup that you see here. And just like what we have with our ice pickups today, 2 fantastic entries in the biggest segment and the market representing 2 distinct brands and customer bases. I'd say no one will be able to touch us in the battery electric truck space.
Other features like the HUMMER EV's Crab Walk or WTF, Careful with that or watch the freedom mode, are more examples of the competitive advantage of our EV dedicated hardware and our advanced software. In fact, all of this, whether our manufacturing expertise in economies of scale or our dedicated LTM platform or our Ultifi software advantages, It all represents our competitive advantage over other OEMs as well as our startups and the newcomers into the business. And by the way, I'll give you another advantage we have over the startups, a big built in very loyal customer base, In fact, the most loyal in the industry. In fact, earlier this year, when IHS Markit announced the results of the 25th Annual Automotive Loyalty Awards, General Motors was again the top manufacturer for automotive loyalty in the United States. This is the 6th year in a row that GM came out on top in the overall loyalty of the manufacturer category and the 17th time in the last 25 years.
Now that's loyalty that the other OEMs simply do not have. And most startups have no customer base at all. But we do and we intend to bring our customers along with us to EVs, give them exactly what they want and make their transition convenient, Smooth and seamless. The reason we'll be able to make their transition so seamless is Ultifi, the other half of our dual platform strategy together with Altium. Ultifi and the apps it enables will help give our customers the most convenient EV ownership experience possible.
And let them move swiftly and surely through the entire ecosystem whether they're looking for an available fast charger or the quickest route to get to 1. And it goes way beyond just those examples to multiple apps, services, some subscriber base and some not. Our approach with Ultifi, like Ultium, is vertically integrated. You'll recall that our EV strategy involves vertical integration from the ground up For our dedicated EV and AV platforms. We'll have the rights to all of that technology and intellectual property involved And the development and the build of the components ourselves, the battery packs together with our long term partner LG Energy Solution, but also the battery chemistry And the electric motors.
That also means we'll be able to license technology and sell components to other interested parties. In fact, we are today. That will be another source of potential new business revenue, one we've already begun leveraging with the likes of Honda and others. The slide that Mary showed earlier illustrates our growth strategy and she said our innovative culture is our foundation. And Pam Fletcher will speak to that later today and truly it is.
On top of that, we have our manufacturing leadership, Including our scale and expertise, leadership that gives us competitive advantages and quality and cost. And Gerald Johnson will cover this and much more. And speaking of manufacturing, we'll make more news out there soon when we announce a new dedicated battery electric truck Assembly Facility, so stay tuned for that. The next rung is what I consider the heart of everything, Our vehicle lineup. You have to have great vehicles that people want and love before you can have anything else.
Our path to great vehicles include our core expertise, designing and engineering world class vehicles with style, Size and price point that people want, in other words, creating real value for our customers. Then we have our EV platform, Ultium, Which enables, as I described, flexible and agile portfolio creation to multiple brands and multiple segments. It's here where we find the nerve center, VIP, which I mentioned before, which has lightning fast processing power It enables Ultifi and everything else, including all the software services that rest on top of it. Ultifi will enable and empower customers to update their experiences continuously with desirable features, third party integrations and regular More frequent over their updates. It will redefine vehicle ownership in ways we've never seen before and in some cases Ways we haven't even thought of yet.
That's the capability built in. These experiences are broad and Bonifil And can include vehicle features like Crab Walk or Super Cruise or other driver systems, safety, security features, Climate and comfort options, personal themes and EV ownership experience elements like battery and charging details, the charger locations, Maps and payment options and much, much more. This next generation combination of processing power and software prowess is what will shift all of the margins. We believe it will open up a huge revenue opportunity for us, one measured in tens of billions. And by the way, we already have a head start in some of this.
We have been applying this knowledge to both ICE vehicles and current EVs ever since we launched the 1st gen of VIP 2 years ago, which enables OTA updates and our current software features. The top layers of this growth and strategy chart are really just the tip of the iceberg. You'll hear more about today all the revenue opportunities unlocked by this approach and how the integration of our hardware and software Creates unique experiences for each and every vehicle. That's our strategy, the dual platform approach And we're going to be relentless in this execution. That's how we'll get to a 1000000 EVs on the road in 2025.
That's how we'll take more U. S. EV market share than anybody else. That's how we'll lead and that's how we'll win. We know that the EV market overall is going to grow rapidly because we're going to create it.
We have conducted hundreds of research studies to gauge consumer interest And EVs and they've all shown that it's way up. In the past 4 years, consumer interest in EVs has risen by 65%. Another key driver of EV adoption once customers are considering them is styling, Exterior and in steer, which have won high marks for the future GM vehicles that we've tested in consumer clinics. In fact, the Cadillac Lyric Tested higher for design than any new vehicle we've ever tested before in our history. It was called futuristic, interesting and unexpected.
It's as fun to drive as it is to look at. Believe me, we are out the proving grounds driving this. And I got to tell you, the car has immediate presence. It's what Cadillac Should be and will be. And you'll notice that 30 seconds into the trip.
It's fast and it handles beautifully. In the recent tour of the production Lyric, we heard things like, now that's a Cadillac. And to me, that is music or lyric to my ears. The press was very enthusiastic. MotorTrend said color is impressed with what Cadillac's team has done with the Lyriq from a styling standpoint.
We'll see how it performs from a dynamic and performance perspective, but if it's anywhere near as impressive in those areas, Cadillac's first EV is primed To be an out of the gate success. Rob Report said inside designers gave the Lyric high quality handcrafted materials that far surpassed Tesla's Spartan cabins. And a writer for the website electric.co said, at $60,000 my biggest question is, Will GM make enough of these? I'm glad the media realized what a compelling product Lyric is and what it's priced to move, But we know that we're going to need lower prices and higher volumes to get where we want to be, and we're going to have both. The Chevrolet crossover you see up here It's an Equinox EV or the equivalent, and it's part of our 30 EVs by 2025.
This Chevy will be a high volume play when it arrives, priced at approximately $30,000 Equinax is currently our 2nd best selling nameplate by the way. And so that's some really serious volume right now at a really good price point. We also have a Blazer EV That will be an affordable high volume entry as well. And we're working on something else even below those from a price standpoint, but we aren't prepared to discuss the details But when we do it, we're going to take the same no compromises approach we took with all the other ones. We're going to build nothing short of the best EVs on the planet because of our dedicated EV platform, Ultium, from High volume plays to Buick crossovers to GMC and armored trucks all the way up to the Cadillac Celestiq.
And they'll all be exquisitely handcrafted and styled inside just like the Lyric and just like the Celestiq will be. In Celestiq, our designers have created a stunning vehicle with a dramatic presence, a low profile and rearward proportion With 4 wheel steer capabilities and an all glass roof to name just a couple of things. And anyone who doesn't think We're all in on EVs. You need to come and take a closer look at these. I would ask you to do all that when you have a chance.
And I
ask you all to pay close attention as the rest of the day's speakers go into a deeper dive about our competitive advantages and the new business opportunities we are pursuing. This slide shows our road map to long term growth. As you can see, the first step Is the restructuring and transformation. Then we have several milestones along the way. ICE cars where we have ended various Unprofitable vehicle programs.
ICE crossovers where our next generation models will launch with higher EBIT and margins, And that's why we're reinvesting in them. ICE Trucks, we will likewise invest to continue our strong market performance and assure Our profitability in doing so. EVs will create a splash with our first LTM entries like the Hummer EV, The Cadillac Lyric and follow-up with volume entries to build momentum, market acceptance and share. The AVs and crews, which we believe will ramp up revenue and EBIT quickly after commercialization. And the same goes for BrightDrop, What you'll hear about more details on that soon as well as the other business opportunities we'll leverage like GN Defense, OnStar Insurance And other software data and subscription services and these will lead us to the revenue and profitability targets that Mary just described to you.
As she said, General Motors is at the tipping point to a new phase of growth. We'll invest in our core products as well as our growth strategy And to fund our future. Our EV portfolio will be the best and broadest in the industry, And we will deliver software enabled experiences that redefine the ownership experience and unlock significant new revenue streams. We have multiple new business opportunities that leverage our technology and will drive significant revenue. We made the decision and the commitment more 3 years ago to lead in EVs, while others were investing in hybrids or being non committal about full EVs.
And since then, we've been upfront and transparent with you about what we plan to do and we've been doing it, Not just talking about doing it. We have 2 battery plants already under construction. In fact, I was in the Wartstown plant here about a month ago. I got to say I've been on a lot of assembly plants, but this plant is something to behold. It is just unbelievable, and it's ready to come online.
So We are launching 2 battery electric vehicles in the next 12 months, both off of a dedicated EV architecture, Both built at assembly facilities by thousands of skilled workers, many of whom have been with us for years. And we have many, many more EVs to come as you've seen. We have created an EV culture and have programs in place to train our employees and dealers To prepare them for an all electric future. In short, we are well positioned to break through and win. I think what you'll see and hear this afternoon and tomorrow will back that statement up and more.
I can't wait to think to hear what you have to think. I got to tell you, I've been around I've been in the company, I've been in the industry all of my career. I have never been in a time in this company when I feel like We are going to break through and we are transforming something very special and looking to the future. We're no longer just a hardware company. We are a hardware software customer service connected vehicle company.
I got to tell you, I wake up every day and I feel better about things than I ever have in this company. And I'm so excited to come to work every day. I just wanted to tell you that because this time, this is our time, and we're going to break through. So thank you so very much for your attention. And now, I'd like to introduce Ken Morris.
Thank you.
Good afternoon. I'm going to talk about the hardware we're using on our journey to 0 emissions. In 2016, the advanced work began on Altium, The technology platform that will help GM transform the future of mobility with the same revolutionary effect on our culture That the automobile itself had more than a century ago. The Ultium platform is a pathway to growth and profitability. As part of our platform advantage, it forms a symbiotic relationship with our revolutionary Ultifi software platform and vehicle operating system.
Together, they offer pioneering customer experience initiatives designed to drive greater sales and revenue opportunities with even greater margins. You'll hear more about the Altify next, but first, I'm going to talk about how the Altium platform is the key to GM's zero zero zero vision And how our strategic system of technology, innovation, supply chain control and vertical integration Will help us do it quicker at a lower cost and more sustainably. I'm also going to share some breaking news about initiatives and agreements that will help us We have unprecedented control over the need for key materials in our battery cells, motors and power electronics production. These moves will help ensure supplies as we scale up EV production, will further reduce costs and take our sustainability to the next level. There's news on the charging front too as we continue to expand Ultium Charge 360 with its unparalleled integration of charging networks, Products and services for retail and fleet customers.
We see all new opportunities beyond personal and shared mobility As EV adoption rates increase and the charging networks expands, commercial applications, portable power and charging solutions for large Transportation and Other Industries as well as additional licensing opportunities offer all new untapped revenue streams. Those are the headlines. Let's walk through the details, starting with the exciting news about our Aldiant platform supply chain and material sourcing. We're putting the final touches on a supply agreement with the semiconductor manufacturer Wolfspeed to source silicon carbide wafer and die materials for our next Generation Power Electronics. Silicon carbide semiconductors can be up to 50% more energy efficient than traditional semiconductors.
We're also going to need more rare earth materials for the magnets that are integrated within the motors of our Aldiant Drive units. For that, we are collaborating with General Electric Company, acting through its GE Renewable Energy Business As adjacent industry customers to support the development of a secure rare earth magnet value chain. We're also focused on secure, sustainable and scalable partnerships for the raw materials required for our battery cells. We're pursuing strategic supply agreements for lithium, nickel and cobalt, and we'll share details when they're finalized. These initiatives help us take more control over our destiny and ultimately deliver both higher quality and more affordable vehicles to our customers.
As you can see on the graph, we've reduced Altium costs by 40% as compared to our current battery system. This was accomplished through manufacturing efficiencies, material cost reductions and an optimized integration strategy. We'll achieve a 60% reduction in our next generation audio based EVs in the coming years through increased vertical integration with the local with the local production of our own batteries, new chemistry in the next gen batteries that would deliver greater energy density at a lower cost, The economies of scale as EV adoption rates and vehicle production increase rapidly through the decade and our battery production capacity grows to match them. We believe that we will soon have one of the most vertically integrated supply chains for battery production in the industry. We will accomplish this by manufacturing them ourselves.
This reduces material costs, streamlines operating equipment efficiency, Improves first time quality and reduces waste for recycling. In fact, we have a plan to recycle material from our battery manufacturing process, Keeping it out of the landfills and returning it to the supply chain. We also want to ensure that all of our batteries will be used to the fullest extent of their lives And are recycled at a positive value. Today, we refurbish and recycle 100% of the batteries returned to us And feed the lessons from service in the future designs to reduce waste even more and increase lifetime performance and value. To really move the needle on battery cost reductions, we are focused on strategic breakthroughs with our electrochemistry.
Lithium metal and silicon anode cells have greater density than conventional anodes, allowing the battery to store more energy in the same volume. To speed development of these high energy, cost efficient cells, we are bringing battery development and manufacturing labs together under one roof At the all new Wallace Battery Cell Innovation Center, named for Bill Wallace, a pioneer and leader of GM's advanced battery technologies. The superstructure of this new 300,000 square foot facility is up here at the Warren Tech Center, and it will open in less than a year. As we scale up vehicle production, our battery costs will come down. And later, Gerald will discuss how our manufacturing operations will enable GM scale EV production like no other company.
Additionally, as our electrochemistry technology advancements deliver greater energy density, The savings of scale will only increase. We'll be able to power our vehicles with smaller battery packs filled with fewer cells that are produced at a lower cost. For the widespread adoption of BVs, GM understands that a convenient and robust charging experience is fundamental. Altium Charge 360 is our solution that supports EV owners, dealers and fleets. It integrates our mobile apps, charging networks, services and products to deliver the best charging experience for GM EV owners at home, At work or on the go.
GM customers also have access to more than 85,000 public charging stations across the U. S. And Canada. We have 7 ChargePoint operators integrated in our app and recently signed agreements with 2 more as well as PlugShare To enhance our data and the customer experience with real time charger status and integrated payments. A year ago, GM also announced an investment with EVgo to accelerate charging infrastructure build out by adding 2,700 DC fast charging stations With every site featuring 350 kilowatt chargers.
Today, GM is announcing an increase in our investment in charging infrastructure Reliable level 2 in fast charging with the superior customer experience of Odium Charge 360. This investment We'll accelerate infrastructure build out across home, workplace and public charging throughout the U. S. And Canada and is a Key enabler for GM's EV adoption. GM is leading the industry with turnkey charging solutions for its dealers, Fleets and customers.
In June, we introduced an industry first complementary turnkey home installation service, allowing Chevy Bolt owners to charge a home at 5 times the speed of a standard household outlet. Altium Charge 360 also matches our fleet customers with preferred providers who offer turnkey and full service charging solutions to accelerate the conversion of ICE fleets to EVs. In addition to fleet and facility management tools, It also integrates OnStar Vehicle Insights and BrightDrop's fleet and asset management platform. Our redesigned GM mobile apps Integrate all of our Altium Charge 360 offerings and provide an intuitive mobile experience, including convenient route planning And the option to purchase additional products and services. Tomorrow, you'll get a sneak peek of GM's new Ultium charging products, Another expansion of our business.
Otium also offers unmatched potential to power not only our vehicles, But the 0 emissions aspirations for others, expanding the reach and revenue opportunities for our unique and adaptable technology platform. These are new untapped revenue streams that will contribute to GM's profitable growth strategy while helping solidify our position as a leader In the pathway to a 0 emissions future, 2 main technologies are needed: Batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. They complement each other, so we can apply 1 or both technologies to suit almost any need, Which is why GM is investing in both Altium batteries and Hydrotech fuel cells. In the future, battery electric propulsion systems such as Altium We'll take the place of applications currently served by gasoline engines. And similarly, diesel engine applications will likely migrate to hydrogen fuel cells.
There have been a number of announcements recently around this, so it's worth a recap of 3 of them Navistar, Wabtec and Lever Aerospace. Our agreement with Navistar to supply Hydratech fuel cell power cubes for its R8 Series fuel cell EV has game changing potential for the trucking industry, And we're very excited about the prospects. Earlier this year, we announced a collaboration to develop and commercialize Ultium battery technology 25 fuel cell systems per locomotive to help pave the way for 0 emissions rail transportation. We are still in the beginning stages here, but progress is underway. This year, we also announced an agreement with Lieber Aerospace in France To apply Hydrotech Technology along with GM supplied controls and software to develop a hydrogen fuel cell power generation demonstrator system For aircraft.
In addition to those three exciting initiatives, we continued to progress in our collaboration with Honda. As we previously announced, GM and Honda are collaborating on 2 Odeon based EVs and the fully autonomous origin. And we're exploring even more transportation and industrial applications, including defense and marine, And we will share respective agreement details in the near future. This approach to leveraging and licensing our power and propulsion technologies Extends a decades long and profitable legacy as an engine supplier for boats, generators and just about anything with wheels. Through Ultium, we can do the same with our electrification technology.
GM is committed to putting everyone in an EV, and Ultium is how we're going to do The increased supply chain control we are building with our own battery cells along with next generation technology advances We'll drive down battery costs over the next few years to about the same cost as our combustion engines. Indeed, Aldium is the foundation for a new era in mobility leadership and the base for GM's EV revenue strategy. We will win with both. Thank you for your time. Now I'd like to introduce Scott Miller.
Thanks, Ken. I'm Scott Miller, Vice President of our software defined vehicle. With over 20 years of working in software, I'm very excited to tell you talk to you today about our Ultifi platform. If Altium is how we scale our EV ambitions, Altify will be how we scale our software and service ambitions. Today, all vehicles contain millions of lines of code.
That's how you open a window by pushing a button or check tire pressure from your dashboard. That software has historically been embedded into many control modules. And as electronics have grown, we've added over 80 modules distributed across the vehicle. These are real time control modules. While this approach has its advantages, such as secure and reliable control, it's rigid and it takes time to add new capability.
That's why we're introducing Ultifi, a new Linux based software platform built in house. It enables us to separate the Software from the hardware on the vehicle with a direct interface to the embedded controls and the cloud. This layered approach Is architected for rapid and continuous software updates, giving developers the opportunity to access both the vehicle capabilities And integrate cloud services in the most flexible and fastest way possible. It also allows frictionless off board data communication to integrate our fleet with the cloud, while also maintaining industry leading cybersecurity. This is how we're converting our vehicles into platforms for software in service delivery, unlocking value for customers and for GM.
To implement, we start by separating our software from the embedded This is done by reworking our embedded controls in adding a software extraction layer that communicates With all of the electronic control units, think of it as a kind of powerful hub for all the vehicle systems. The step is foundational And enables all of the vehicles, all of the vehicle sensors and controls to be available as services for the developers to work with. Next, we add a service oriented layer, which allows GM to create new features leveraging the vehicle's own capabilities And by integrating cloud based services. This layer will be version controlled and released as a common platform across our fleet. And it will be updated for many years after the vehicle purchase.
This is Ultifi, a common end to end platform Where new software and applications can be securely developed and over the air updated to millions of vehicles at once. This is the point where vehicles that have for many years been enabled by software now become defined by it. On our new platform, we'll architect software into services, which are specific functions that will be used to create new applications. Once we establish a service, it will be common for all vehicles. This is an incredibly powerful strategy that allows us to develop changes once And distribute to all vehicles.
Mary mentioned earlier the 15 cameras and more than 100 sensors and functions that would be available in the Cadillac Lyric. I'll just think about with Ultifi in service orientation, we can find nearly unlimited ways to combine all of these to create new customer experiences. Vehicle sensors, signals and actuators can be accessed by application program interfaces, APIs, From the software platform and used to develop new features to improve existing ones. For example, Rain sensors in the windshield wipers can be accessed by API to activate traction control. Even better, exterior vehicle cameras Can be used to provide real time dash cam capabilities with content automatically uploaded to the cloud or Those same cameras can be used to adjust teen driver settings for extra caution in a school zone.
Similarly, internal cameras can be used for facial recognition To start the engine or those same cameras could be used to automatically activate child locks when a child is in the rear seat. If you're a parent with teenagers and toddlers at the same time, you can really appreciate that feature. All of these services can be reconfigured into new applications Without disturbing their original function. It's like being able to turn on your TV and lights at the same time at home using a voice assistant Without disturbing the ability to separately use a switch or a remote control. The reusability of these services Rapidly improves our software development time and allows our in house software resources to be focused on creating new value.
And just like a smartphone, because Altify is Linux based, one of the most widely used platforms by developers, We have the potential to give authorized third party developers access to create new content for our customers. Thanks to the flexibility of the Ultifi architecture, the time needed to develop new applications for the vehicle can be reduced from years 2 weeks and delivered over the year. For the owner, it means the ability to customize the vehicle how they want it. They'll be able to upgrade the vehicle performance, download new content and personalized settings all from the dashboard or their mobile app. Another benefit of Ultifi is ability to access software services by continuous cloud based connectivity.
This opens the possibility for integrated software experiences between devices. For example, when a secondary driver approaches the car, Comfort settings can automatically adjust to the personal preferences saved in that driver's mobile app. Or similarly, as the car approaches the garage, the garage door opens And the lights turn on in the house. Imagine the infinite possibilities of adding cloud services to further improve vehicle capabilities. For example, with a weather app or weather service, we can automatically close the windows or the sunroof before it starts to rain.
If you ever left your windows open in a rainstorm, we'd like that. It's a seamless integration of the vehicle into the wider Digital Ecosystem. The ability for vehicles to communicate with one another and with the surrounding infrastructure is key to unlocking our vision to 0 crashes in 0 congestion. Because the software was developed and is owned by GM, rather than being licensed from an independent A software vendor, GM has control of the data coming off the vehicles. And therefore, we can apply our strict security and privacy standards.
Data that is collected by the vehicle, processed at the edge and used for constant evolution and improvement of onboard vehicle algorithms, resulting in better and safer driving and new customer experiences. Data exchange will be frictionless between the vehicle and off board. Frictionless means configurable and contextual data selection. What that allows us to do is Create precise data analytics. For example, when we notice that for drivers takeovers or Trends for driver takeovers of our Super Cruise system, we could quickly tailor our data snapshots to enable rapid improvements.
Frictionless also means unlocking the power of our fleet with a crowd sourced and automized data streaming off these vehicles. This network data allows GM to create valuable cloud services that will improve our customers' experience and safety. Think about it. GM will have accurate real time information about current weather or road conditions Because our fleet of vehicles is constantly processing that data through their onboard sensors all across the U. S.
With our installed base, we will have the data to create icy road warnings, weather maps or real time traffic insights. No other company can match that level of insight. And when continuous 5 gs connectivity becomes available, We can start to explore opportunities to off board some of the computing requirements. The critical computing for active safety and performance will always stay on board, But many other uses of AI and machine learning can be off boarded, which allows us to do more with the compute already on the vehicle. We're just scratching the surface of what's possible with edge services.
But things like real time traffic condition alerts Where local scene providers for automated driving are very real and they're coming. Pam Fletcher is going to talk more about some of the ways the global team is leveraging that data later. The ability to rapidly and securely scale new software and services across the GM fleet will transform The vehicle ownership experience and GM's relationship with our customers. With Altify in place, we empower customers to personalize their vehicles, Purchase new content and access performance upgrades for years after the initial vehicle purchase. We unlock advanced subscription capabilities, Turning the vehicle into a content platform and increasing the lifetime value of the vehicle to the customers while capturing more of that value for GM.
And by offering Optifi across our range of next generation vehicles, we provide a bridge between our ICE and our electric vehicle customers. In our opinion, no other company will have this level of software flexibility, development speed across so large a fleet. Extended GM's lead in the software enabled services in introducing an era of software defined vehicles to millions of our customers. Thank you. Now I'd like to introduce Alan Wexler.
Thank you.
Hi, everyone. I'm Alan Wexler, responsible for innovation and growth within General Motors. Mary, Mark and Scott I've all hit on how software is fundamentally changing our business, both within and beyond the vehicle. There has been a paradigm shift In virtually every industry, driven by new technologies and consumer empowerment. With the advent of EVs, Our shift is now accelerating.
So for this next portion, we'll dig deeper on what we see as the digital opportunity and how we're approaching it. We'll also share with you how we're incubating new businesses, and then we'll do a deep dive on one business we're super proud of, Bright drop. So taken together, you'll see that we are laser focused on new avenues for growth. So I'm not a car guy in the traditional sense, but I am a digital person. And the reason why I joined General Motors is because the most exciting digital opportunity Lies in this industry, specifically lies within this company, and our time is now.
So as you've heard this afternoon, Our move to EVs and AVs opens up so many other opportunities for us. It gives us a chance to rethink our vehicle as a platform Innovator overnight. We're able to do this because we've been laying the foundation with our connected services for 25 years. So like the best platform innovators, it means we'll monetize our data and also use the data to shape new services And build entirely new businesses. So what is our framework for going after this opportunity?
Why do we have the right to win? And how will we monetize it? That's what I'll move to next. So over the last 2 years, we've made great strides in our transformation, And I'd like to take you through 2 things right now. The first, our customer ecosystem, and that includes the digital platforms that underpin it.
And second, our $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 growth opportunity. So here you see the framework that depicts how we think about customer offerings, Also our channels and our digital commerce platforms. On top of that, you'll see our back office system that really supports all of this. And to unlock growth and to do it at scale, we are applying software innovation to every layer of this ecosystem, Protecting our customers' privacy and security along the way. So while compelling physical product offerings are clearly critical, There's no question about that.
Obviously, our vehicles but also our parts and services. Our business model is shifting, And software and services are our white space. So next up, we have our channels. So all of our 5 channels are in the process of currently being refreshed as well as integrated, so we can meet our customers on their terms in a way that best serves their needs. So one example of this is our all new mobile app.
So launched in April, The app receives monthly updates with new features, functions and software upgrades. It is beautiful. It has a simple and intuitive user interface, and our customers just love it. So the back office portion of the ecosystem, as I referred to earlier, is highlighted at the bottom here. We are transforming our back office to a cloud based architecture, which is customer centric.
Our data management architecture combined with an AI decision engine allows us to recognize an individual customer, Their wants and needs at every single touch point we have with them. This enables us to interact with our customers in a personalized way, Cross selling throughout all five channels. So the back office can often be underappreciated. However, its simplicity and convenience are at the core of what helps us create a sticky customer experience. And then in the middle, we have our 3 digital commerce platforms.
These enable us to pull the entire ecosystem together. Let me walk you through them. So first, let's take the digital retail platform, as affectionately known as DRP. And this is what makes the sale of an electric vehicle 100% online, in store or anything in between. So it means we'll take advantage of a modern retail approach and also capitalize on the full strength of our network of 4,000 dealers.
So in collaboration with our dealer councils, we've studied this detail retail the digital retail model, excuse me, in detail. And together With our dealers, we're working to transform our customer experience at a dramatically reduced cost and with improved margins. We're also partnering with Techheon to develop the DRP that combines the ability to shop, purchase as well as finance 100% online. So we are committed to meeting all our customers where they are on their terms And helping them on this journey to an all EV future. Together, we will scale EVs and AVs And our software enabled services at a pace that has never before seen in this industry.
Next up, we have our omnichannel platform. So this is really for all onetime purchases, including physical goods as well as digital products. This is a platform for customers to shop when and where they want on a desktop, on a mobile device, in vehicle screens through non store advisor As well as in a store. So I'm going to take you through 3 examples that demonstrate the breadth of the features that will be available. 1st, Super Cruise enhancements, one of the most exciting near term over the air updates.
Select owners of model year 'twenty one or newer vehicles with Super Cruise will be able to buy new capabilities and features That weren't available to them at the initial time of purchase, like automatic lane change as well as trailering. These customers can keep evolving their vehicles at the leading edge of technology, which is a step change in our relationship with our customers. So a very different type of onetime purchase is personalization themes, something that will start with the launch of the Cadillac Lyriq. With personalization themes, our customers can download in vehicle screen themes to represent their mood or personality From an always fresh catalog ever changing. And then, of course, our parts and accessories.
The core of this platform provides an exponential growth opportunity from where we are today. Our accessories business is already selling over 5,000 parts and products And soon, we will add over 70,000 parts and products to this catalog. So with 87 Of the U. S. Population within 10 miles of a GM dealership, our omnichannel approach mirrors that of the most successful retailers in any business.
So whether it's super cruise, themes or accessories, we will make it as simple and appealing as possible for our customers to continuously Approve their ownership experience. And finally, the subscription services platform. This is the bedrock for growth opportunity in recurring revenue as well as as well as great services for our customers. We have a 25 year history a 25 year history in the subscription business with over 6,000,000,000 global customer interactions to date. So this platform supports vehicle based subscriptions like OnStar and is also being expanded to support our growth initiatives in the future, both in the vehicle as well as beyond.
Today, we're sharing with you some of our KPIs for our Connected Services business For the first time, so pay attention. We have 16,000,000 vehicles on the road in the U. S. And Canada, 4,200,000 paying customers for our subscription services today. And in 2021, We project nearly $2,000,000,000 in subscription service revenue with a global EBIT margin in excess of 70%.
For scale and profitability, that puts our current subscription business in the same league as leading companies like Netflix, Peloton, Spotify and others. You will see specific comparisons with those companies tomorrow. Within the subscription services, one metric we're keenly focused on currently is customer share of wallet. We know our products and services don't exist in a vacuum. We must compete constantly for customers' time as well as dollars.
We've developed models of future customer purchase patterns and pricing strategies for a growing list of products and services, which includes over the air updates. We've just conducted a study with several 1,000 consumers to gauge the response To a range of connected products and services, and we've drilled down on attitudes towards subscriptions in the automotive space and beyond For different segments of customers we will attract. And we have found that the average willingness To select multiple services is high. Consumers chose multiple features and service concepts. When offered 45 different options, On average, they chose 25 different products and services.
And with that, the average willingness to spend on future services is also high. In fact, our research indicates that with the right mix of compelling offerings, customers are willing to spend $135 per month on average for products and services. Let me break that down for you. So by 2,030, we will have a connected car park of 30,000,000 vehicles in the U. S.
Based on our portfolio of offerings, we see a serviceable addressable market for General Motors of $80,000,000,000 From this $80,000,000,000 opportunity, we believe we can generate additional incremental revenue Of $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 of that is from insurance. The remainder is comprised of onetime purchases as well as subscriptions. So beyond OnStar, What are the subscription services that we'll be targeting? A lot. For example, Maps Plus, it's an OTA navigation solution that gives some customers Who don't have embedded NAV in their vehicle's navigation capabilities.
It does this with Alexa voice control, with music streaming and a seamless Integrated user experience. Or for commercial customers, we have offerings like OnStar Vehicle Insights That delivers a comprehensive fleet solution to both GM and non GM mixed fleets. Just this service alone meets the needs of a massive market, hundreds of thousands of connected fleet vehicles with data from millions of trips In 100 of millions of miles, all of that data provides huge monetization opportunities. We stand apart for the scale of data that we have to work with, and we plan to leverage it. So both MAPS plus and OnStar Vehicle Insights are in the market already, and the team will share more detail with you this week with some impressive early KPIs.
Just as exciting is the pipeline of upgrades and services to come. It is a huge range of options that are built around the customer. You can see some of the categories here on the screen. Everything from smartphone safety and security services like crisis assistance To smart vehicle services like driving behavior insights as well as coaching to vehicle performance features like the 0 to The acceleration software upgrade. Also interior and exterior connected camera capabilities, park assist, Audio enhancements, more personalized interior themes, hands free driving systems and a range of vehicle apps including services like traffic light, Speed management.
There is so much coming and we are building on an established foundation of connected vehicles, Years of insights from data and services that our customers value and approved proven track record of commercial results. So that lays out our customer ecosystem framework, the digital platforms that underpin it as well as the revenue opportunity. Our digital opportunity and strategy is crystal clear. We are moving incredibly fast in service of our customers. We are connecting value chains and capitalizing on adjacencies, and we were able to do this because of our deep technology capability And because we know how to execute exceptionally well.
And to move even faster in the digital space, we've just announced the creation of a new dedicated digital organization. This purpose built team is structured around our digital lines of business. Each As a dedicated commercial leader, accountable for all aspects of the P and L and the execution. On the same team and in service of these digital lines of business, we will have our digital product managers, our customer experience team and a dedicated software development team. By bringing these critical groups together as one team, we will move fast.
We'll do it in service of our customers with clear accountability for business results that we're sharing with you today. And to lead this team, as Mary mentioned earlier, Edward Coomer will be joining us. Edward brings proven digital and e commerce expertise From industries and brands known for superior customer experience as well as exceptional results, companies like Nordstrom, Disney as well as limited brands. Edgar will report to Mark. Software enabled services will transform our business model, make no doubt.
As a team, we have a common purpose, our growth strategy as our compass and a purpose built organization To realize this transformational opportunity. So before I pass it to Pam, I just want to share a quick personal story. I joined GM about 14 months ago After spending a career helping companies deal with disruption, helping them transform, primarily because of digital. And When I started, one of the first things I did is about a month in, I was invited to visit the Flint heavy duty truck facility. And I tell you, I was in awe.
Like what I experienced that day, I've never seen anything like it, in my life. And leaving that day, I Call Mark, and I spoke to him just to share my experience. And Mark stopped me in my tracks and said, Alan, I just want to thank you for taking the time and going to this facility. I'm thinking because it's not my day job that I should have taken a vacation day. I was that blown away by what I've seen.
And when I reflect back over the last 14 months and spending my career dealing with companies and industries all over the world and industries outside of this one As well, I'm just I'm blown away with what I'm seeing, whether it's the products that we're building, it's the scale and the speed in which we're doing it, It's the services that we're building on top of these products as well as the services that go beyond our products. It's the technology we're inventing. It's the culture that we have, starting with our values and behaviors, with our vision and with our purpose. I've never seen anything like it In my career, it gives me all of these things. I'll add to it.
We have a great leader, and we have a great leadership team that is connected With a common mission that respects each other, moves fast and moves with purpose. I've never seen anything like it in my career, and I am incredibly proud To be part of this next chapter of helping GM lead the transformation for our industry. So with that, I'm going to hand it over to Pam.
Thanks, Alan. Good afternoon. I'm Pam Fletcher, Vice President of Global Innovation at General Motors. And our team's mission is to disrupt industries by incubating new high growth businesses for GM, helping the company to enter new markets, Attract new customers and grow new revenue streams. To put it simply, we are the place to ideate and grow bright ideas.
Today, I'll highlight 2 great businesses we currently have in market, OnStar Insurance and GM Defense, and even one that's just Emerging, we've code named it internally Future Roads. Each year, we evaluate hundreds of ideas, but only incubate about the top 10%. That process is led by our accelerator team, which filters each idea to assess the potential opportunity based on things like total addressable market And GM's right to win, along with other factors like potential time line and cost to commercialize. One very important consideration is whether existing GM core competencies deliver a competitive advantage. Our access to commercialized technologies, proprietary data insights, innovative products and services, Manufacturing leadership and more allow us to rapidly scale while most new market entrants are still building foundations.
If an idea advances through our filters, we begin incubating the business in a test and learn environment to ensure we have a novel solution. Then we move to launching and scaling when stage gates are met. We currently have around 20 start ups in our pipeline, which includes 5 we've Successfully taken to market, and that pipeline continues to grow. One emerging business that has already Gained great momentum is OnStar Insurance. In just 10 months, OnStar Insurance became available in 38 states, And we plan to operate in all 50 states by 2022, early 2022, in fact.
This will represent one of the fastest nationwide rollouts of an auto insurance product. And to lead this effort, GM has hired Andrew Rose as President of OnStar Insurance. Andrew comes to us with many years of expertise, Starting with traditional insurers as well as an entrepreneur where he founded and led 2 insurtech startups. There are 3 key advantages that will enable OnStar Insurance's growth. 1st, access to customers at moments that matter 2, superior data And 3, the GM Ecosystem.
To address the first, the insurance industry spends almost $10,000,000,000 on advertising annually. GM has access to customers at the most important moments in vehicle ownership, Purchase, service and our ongoing operation, which means we do not have to spend 1,000,000,000 of dollars to get their attention. 2nd, superior data. Thanks to the data coming from GM vehicles, we have a greater potential to better assess driver risk than a High quality contextual data versus the cell phone data used by insurers without large connected car fleets. And finally, GM's ecosystem.
We believe that by integrating OnStar Insurance with other elements of the GM ecosystem, We can create an ideal, more seamless customer experience from vehicle purchase and throughout ownership. You will begin to see our vision for an integrated insurance solution come to life starting with the launch of the Cadillac Lyric. This integrated experience will use vehicle data to offer premiums based on personal driving behaviors. That means fair pricing and rewarding customers for opting into enhanced safety packages when they purchase a vehicle, Subscribe to OnStar Insurance or upgrade to a new service over the year. We plan to include OnStar Insurance seamlessly into the vehicle purchase process.
We also plan to transform the claims process. For example, we have the potential to know when a vehicle has been in a crash and the level of damage. We could start the claims process immediately and even order parts and get them to your local dealer for repair, A process that takes oftentimes 5 weeks for a traditional insurer could potentially take seconds for OnStar Insurance. We estimate that OnStar Insurance will have a $6,000,000,000 plus revenue opportunity by 2,030 from premiums of GM vehicles alone. Not to mention the revenue growth that can drive into other parts of the organization by helping to sell safety and security services, Enhanced vehicle features, GM Genuine Parts and certified service.
Now let's talk about GM Defense. GM Defense is well positioned to win in the government and defense markets by providing commercially developed solutions at scale, far more quickly than has been done in the past. The Department of Defense is prioritizing a transition to a commercial model and we are helping to accelerate this because of our investments in integrated vehicles, power and propulsion, mobility and autonomy. GM has hired a defense industry expert, Steve Dumont, as President of GM Defense. Steve comes to us with decades of defense experience from his time in uniform to leadership roles in the defense private sector.
Already, Steve and his team are fielding questions for innovative solutions from around the world. In June of 2020, GM Defense was awarded a $214,000,000 contract to build the U. S. From the U. S.
Army to build the infantry squad vehicle, a light and agile all terrain troop transporter. ISVs are purpose built vehicles designed to carry 9 soldiers across almost any battlefield, but with the many benefits of the commercially developed Chevrolet Colorado ZR2. We delivered the first production ISVs to the army in 120 days after the contract award and stood up the production facility in just over 90 days after breaking ground. Thanks to GM's world class manufacturing capabilities and proven commercial off the shelf innovations. We were also able to develop an electric ISV concept in 90 days to show the Department of Defense how GM can lead them into an all electric future.
The swiftness of these events is not customary in the traditional defense industry and showcases a distinct competitive advantage for GM Defense. The U. S. Department of State also recently awarded GM Defense a contract to develop and validate the next generation heavy duty SUVs for use around the world. For this contract, GM Defense will provide the government with a purpose built heavy duty Suburban.
This program will provide a 10 year production opportunity for thousands of vehicles. So looking ahead, GM Defense's growth strategy is focused on building franchises. The ISV is our first franchise and we will Have the potential to grow that initial contract of $214,000,000 to over $1,000,000,000 in revenue over a period of years As we evolve that product to new use cases and new customers around the globe. Our Heavy Duty Suburban win initiates a second Franchise where we plan to take the initial heavy duty suburban development contract valued at $36,000,000 and develop that into a production program that could generate $500,000,000 new $500,000,000 of new business within 24 months. And then we see a great opportunity to expand that Product again to new use cases for other U.
S. And allied government departments driving even greater growth. GM Defense has an immediate TAM that exceeds $25,000,000,000 At this early stage, we see a path to $1,000,000,000 in annual revenue by 2030 enabled by existing and near term franchises that are aligned with GM's technology investments. This is the foundation for growing a multibillion dollar business. We are also leveraging our software enabled Service capabilities into new business opportunities.
The OnStar Guardian platform extends the safety and security of OnStar beyond the vehicle. We recently announced a new extension of OnStar Guardian that works with compatible Alexa devices, so people can connect to OnStar if they're having an emergency at home. We've launched OnStar Vehicle Insights, which uses vehicle data to provide actionable insights to fleet managers and drivers that can help maximize a fleet's efficiency and reduce total cost of ownership. OnStar Vehicle Insights supports almost all fleets regardless of manufacturer and will expand to support new customer segments like dealers. Ultimately, it will become a one stop shop customer experience that combines telematics, Cost of Ownership Insights, GM Financial, Parts, Invoicing, Insurance, Remarketing, Disposal Activities.
Finally, Global Innovation has an all new software enabled start up in the works, which we've internally called Future Roads. Future Roads is a software platform that uses anonymized vehicle data to deliver actionable insights to government agencies, so they can take better, more cost effective steps to create safer and better maintained communities. Future Roads is currently conducting a paid pilot of its first safety product, which provides risk scoring, Crash hotspots and seat belt usage insights after which we plan to officially launch and scale and probably give it a new name too. Next year, we have an aggressive plan to release additional Future Roads products like Road weather reporting, pothole locations, road roughness and more. Just to give you an idea of the cost savings for customers, Their failure to spend $1 in road repair today creates a $7 cost later.
When you add up the opportunities of OnStar Guardian, OnStar Vehicle Insights, Future Roads, we estimate a growth opportunity of over 10,000,000 subscribers by 2,030. The global innovation team's aim is to provide a constant pipeline of potential new revenue streams, Drawing on GM core competencies to deliver growth much faster than traditional venture capitalists or incubator startups. And we're doing just that. Tomorrow, I'm excited for you to get a deeper look into OnStar Insurance, GM Defense and Future Roads. And now I'd like to introduce Travis Katz, who will share an update on our recently graduated business from innovation, BrightDrop.
Welcome, Travis.
All right. Thank you, Pam. Hello, everyone. I'm Travis Katz. I'm the President and CEO of BrightDrop.
At BrightDrop, we are reimagining delivery for an all electric future, building smarter, Cleaner and more efficient solutions for last mile logistics. As Pam just mentioned, BrightDrop is a great example of GM's ability to incubate startup ideas into full fledged businesses, bringing new revenue streams and new growth opportunities to the company. More importantly, BrightDrop is the perfect embodiment of the company's 0 vision. With our all electric delivery vans, We will help reduce emissions from last mile delivery, the hidden footprint of e commerce. And with our software and our electrically propelled containers, We can dramatically reduce congestion and help make our streets safer, both for pedestrians and for drivers.
BrightDrop leverages the investment streams making an electrification, software defined vehicles and autonomy to not only build a substantial business, but to deliver a brighter future for all of us. At the same time, we structured Brighttop to operate as a technology startup, developing high-tech solutions that will enable the companies that power e commerce to grow. Now let's talk about e commerce. I don't need to tell you that e commerce is massive and the challenges of the pandemic have only served to And accelerate its importance in people's lives. From parcels to groceries, retail sales from e commerce totaled 4 $1,000,000,000,000 in 2020.
That was up 27% from the year before and nearly 3x what it was in 2015. This growth is not expected to slow. Global e commerce is expected to grow an additional 76% to 7.4 $1,000,000,000,000 by 2025. Why am I telling you this? BrightDrop's focus on delivery positions the company to not only benefit transition to electric vehicles, but to grow as e commerce grows.
Yet while this explosive growth creates an amazing business opportunity, It's also creating real life challenges. Delivery companies are struggling to keep pace. They're facing labor shortages, Unprofitable routes and challenges hitting the ever increasing bar of consumer expectations. Delivery companies have also set their own aggressive And they're actively seeking ways to reduce their carbon footprints and reduce their impact on urban congestion. At BrightDrop, we are taking these challenges head on, developing holistic solutions that will help these companies continue to scale And in doing so, we will reshape an industry.
BrightDrop is creating an entire portfolio of first to last mile solutions, From electric delivery vehicles to electrically propelled containers to software and services. The solutions leverage cutting edge technology to help delivering logistics companies move products more efficiently, while driving down costs and reducing emissions and congestion. The BrightDrop EV600 was purpose built for delivery. Our designers spent hundreds of hours in the field with delivery drivers On real routes, studying the ergonomics and how they move packages to develop a vehicle that helps make their jobs easier, safer and more efficient. Our GM estimated range of 250 miles allows delivery companies to cover nearly any route with confidence.
And our segment leading safety features help promote driver safety and pedestrian safety while our vehicles are on the road. But the EV600 is not just a vehicle. It's a platform around which we're building an ecosystem. Our EP1 electrified containers allow companies to move goods efficiently over short distances, say from the warehouse to the vehicle or from the vehicle to the front door. Their electric propulsion means they can carry almost 200 pounds of cargo almost effortlessly, meaning a courier can serve an entire apartment building in a Rather than making 5 trips back and forth with a hand truck, massively increasing efficiencies.
So how big a deal is this? As we've shared previously in pilots, FedEx Express was able to handle 25% more packages per day using the EP1 without increasing their labor force, 25%. Our data shows these efficiencies will not only save customers money, But it will also enable delivery companies to dramatically reduce curbside dwell time, reducing congestion and helping to make our streets safer. But most importantly, all of our products are connected Internet of Things devices. And BrightDrop Software will provide delivery companies Leveraging AI and machine learning with these connected devices, BrightDrop has the potential to revolutionize last mile delivery In the same way the shipping container revolutionized global freight, massively improving efficiencies and safety and creating a sustainable path for e commerce to grow.
So I'm an entrepreneur by background. I joined BrightDrop from the venture capital world after a career founding and scaling successful software companies, including trip.com, a company I led to a successful exit in 2017. I'm passionate about technology. But as a parent, I'm also deeply concerned about the impacts of climate change on our children's future. For me, Bipetrop offers an incredible opportunity to take the technology skills that I honed in Silicon Valley and the resources at GM's disposal And not only transform another industry, but to do so in a way that creates a brighter future for all of us.
To get us there, we're assembling an amazing team of technology leaders, some of whom you'll meet tomorrow. With executives joining us from startups like Lyft, Neo, Google and Uber, who bring cutting edge expertise in software, robotics and autonomy that will help us redefine an industry. And as I've mentioned, we structured BrightDrop to operate as a separate startup under the GM umbrella. This innovative structure enables us to operate with the agility, That's like Ultium and Ultifi as well as GM's amazing ability to execute at scale. We believe this combination gives us Powerful advantages over both traditional OEMs and startups.
It's how we plan to deliver our first EV 600s to FedEx Express in December, Less than a year after launching the business. The EV600 will be the fastest vehicle to market in GM's at just 20 months from conception to delivery. Our ability to leverage Ultium and GM's manufacturing is allowing us to scale quickly while ensuring product quality and the ability to keep vehicles on the road that fleet customers demand, backed by service they can trust and part support for the full life of the assets. And last week, we were thrilled to unveil the newest vehicle in our lineup, the EV410. This midsize van is designed to electrify smaller payload deliveries and services From online grocery delivery, a massively growing market, to telecom.
It will help companies like Verizon, we are very proud to announce We'll be the 1st customer to integrate the EV410 into their fleet to meet their own aggressive climate goals while opening up exciting new growth opportunities for the BrightDrop business. Tomorrow, you'll get more details on our product development roadmaps. We believe BrightDrop can capture the winning share and Last Mile Delivery, a new market with a TAM of more than $250,000,000,000 This is a total greenfield opportunity for General Motors. BrightDrop will be able to capture market share through focus, offering a truly comprehensive solution for last mile delivery, addressing customer pain points that can't be met with a generic cargo van while plotting a sustainable path for the future. As we mentioned earlier, we are on track to deliver our first unit to FedEx Express by the end of this year despite the pandemic.
And we're excited to share more with you tomorrow and early next year at CES. And now the moment you've been waiting for,
Thank you. Please welcome Cruise CEO, Dan Ammann.
Hi, everyone. Good to see you all here. Since we're coming back From break, I thought I'd begin with a quick audience survey just to get everybody engaged here. So can I have a show of hands, please, from everybody Who would like to have more time in their day? Yes, that was an easy one, right?
Keep your hands raised if Any of the following things have a positive connotation for you: saving money, saving the planet and saving lives. Okay. That's great. So that most of you have hands up there. And that makes all of you eligible and likely Cruise customers Because that's what we're going to be delivering.
And it's really important now because we are close, very close To offering our first driverless rides to passengers on the streets of San Francisco, very close. And when we do that, we're going to be doing that completely in line with our mission. And our mission is really simple, and that's to deliver Transportation that's better than what you have today at a lower cost, at a lower price. And when we talk about better transportation, we're talking about more safe And what's happening on the roads today, we're talking about a better user experience than you can have today and making it better for the planet, reducing congestion, reducing emissions in our cities and doing all of that at a lower cost than your transportation alternatives that you have today. So better transportation at a lower cost.
So the question is that gives rise to a question, which is how will consumers React to this, how will users react to their first fully driverless ride experience? And so we unsurprisingly were curious about this ourselves. And so much earlier this year, right at the beginning of the year, we invited some members of the public to come in and take driverless rides. This was on closed course testing Just to see what that human reaction is the first time that people go in a driverless car. And so we'll share some snippets of that For you here just to give a little bit of perspective.
So enjoy this and listen carefully to some of the comments that the folks make.
I'm going to give that
to you. And then when you're ready, you can hit start
So far, this is nice and smooth.
Slowing down properly for turns, accelerating. I
All right.
So we have a baseline of not worse than the subway from the very beginning. Obviously, we're continuing to iterate and improve on the experience that Everybody has, but it's nice to get that initial impression from people. So where are we on the Cruise journey? We think about the journey as having 3 main phases to it. Over the last several years from 2015, 'sixteen time frame Through the end of last year, we were clearly very much in an R and D phase.
This is all about building up the core technology And trying to solve that engineering challenge of a generation of building a self driving system that can drive with a human or better level of performance. And we first reached that threshold for the first time late last year, and that's what allowed us to begin fully driverless testing On the streets of San Francisco, which began around October, November of last year. And that marks the beginning of the next phase of the Cruise journey, Which we refer to as early commercialization. And so what we're doing during that phase, which is really 2021 In 2022, is we're taking that first minimum viable level of driverless technology that allowed us To go drive with us on public streets and to turn that into a product that people want to use. So to get to Minimum viable product and into a good level of product market fit by the end of 2022.
And the reason that that's so important and so important we do it on that time line is that the beginning of 2023 is when the cruise origin starts production, and that will mark the end of this early commercialization phase and the beginning of what we refer to internally as our rapid Scaling phase because the Cruise Origin is such a powerful platform and vehicle for us to really scale up the business And to do it profitably. So again, 3 phases: R and D phase that took us through the beginning of driverless testing at the end of last year 2021 2022 early commercialization, building that minimum viable product, taking that to a product market fit And then entering rapid scaling phase with the launch of Cruise Origin in 2023. So what's enabled us to make this really rapid rate of progress has been an investment and a fundamental belief that we have at Cruise, Which is rate of improvement is what is going to give rise to our core competitive advantage. And so we've had a huge team of people working on building what we refer to here as product number 1, which is our end to end fully driverless AV system.
But one of the things that we realized early on Is that this is the first time building a fully driverless AV system is really the first time that AI is getting deployed, cutting edge AI is getting deployed Into the physical world, into the real world. First time that AI is really intersecting with robotics. And so what we discovered Is that a lot of the tools that are necessary to build that system just didn't exist. And so we had a choice With that, we could either put more and more engineers on trying to solve and build product number 1 or we could make an investment, as turned out to be a large investment, In building a development platform necessary to have AI and robotics develop together in a closed loop system Iterating rapidly. And what that's done is really supercharged the rate of progress that we've made on product number 1.
So rather than just piling more engineers on product number 1, we give them tools that make them 10x or 20x or 100x more effective. And it turns out, I think, and we'll learn more about this in the future, that, that development platform most likely has uses above and beyond Solving AV Autonomy in the first instance. So look out for more on that down the road. So let's get more detailed on the rate of progress and what that means. Let's look at some specific data here.
So what you see on the scatterplot for folks in the room here is the safety performance measured in miles per safety critical event of our AV system over the last 3 plus years. And what you can see, just taking a quick glance at the chart, It's very steady progress up into the right in terms of improving safety performance. And this is our safety performance across the entire 7x7 City of San Francisco, 24 hours a day. But what you should also note here is that This chart is on a log scale. So the linear trajectory that you see up into the right here is actually exponential performance.
And from the bottom of the chart to the top of the chart is a 1000x improvement in performance, 3 lots of 10x improvement in performance. So you can see that we've been improving the performance of our AV system at a very steady, very exponential Rate of improvement, and we've been doing it without major regressions and doing it in a very, very steady, very consistent way. And as you can see, we're now entering into the realm of human driver performance at the top of the chart here. We expect this trend and this trajectory to continue Far out into the future and deliver more and more upside. But this is the this is what building that platform, that development platform has allowed us to do is to improve our performance at this rapid rate.
So it's one thing to look at this on a chart and see an engineering metric and the rate of progress there. It's another thing to see what this looks like out on the road. So I'm going to show you a video here of a few situations, a few events that our car has experienced On the streets of SF over the last few weeks, all of these are fully autonomous mode. All of these are pretty complex situations. The car successfully navigates them.
But the thing that I'd ask you to look out for is the very nuanced and human like behavior and the very smooth driving And the interpretation of the scene and what's going on around the car and how the car handles those situations. What you'll see on the video on the top half of the video is the output of one of our development tools. And you'll see a plan view of the car and all the other agents around it and Predictions of what all those other agents are going to do. And then on the bottom half, you will see the camera view, video view from inside of the car. So with that, here we go.
So pretty complex scene, navigating around. And again, the level of nuance, Narrow gaps, the behavior of other cars, who's going to pull ahead when. This looks like a pretty straightforward scene, but it quickly turns into a More complicated and nuanced one here. And again, it's all about understanding what's happening and predicting what other agents are going to do and planning accordingly. A pretty tricky construction scene here, human controlling traffic.
Waiting for a car to come through the other way. Moving ahead. Here's another scene, sort of looks deceptively simple and actually a lot of different cars doing unexpected things here. And again, the smoothness and just human very human like driving behavior. This one is one of my favorites.
This is sort of a multidimensional challenge. Crossing Market Street at Rush Hour. And if you look carefully after that merge, you'll see once we enter the intersection, the White actually turns yellow and some pedestrians start crossing ahead of us where we see that and then we're able to Pick a gap between the pedestrians and safely carry on through. So it's a for those of you that have might have been in the car A couple of years ago, pre COVID, if you remember that experience and then you go on it today, it is absolutely night and day. And the level of smoothness and nuance of Ride It's really awesome.
We're going to have a Tech Day, it's called Under the Hood, on November 4, And we'll be sharing a lot more detail about what's been going on behind the scenes to enable that level of performance there. Kyle Vogt, Cruise Founder and CTO, I will be hosting that. So if you'd like to listen into that, it's primarily for recruiting purposes. But if you'd like to listen into that, please reach out through either gmir or email .com, and we'll get you the ability to listen into that. Okay.
So let's take a step back and just Expand a bit more on our overall approach to autonomy. The goal obviously in the medium to longer term For everybody working on this is to get to low cost generalized autonomy. We want fully autonomous driving. We want it to work everywhere, and we want it to be really inexpensive. So there are a couple of different ways that you can approach that problem.
You can start with a really low cost system like an L2 system and try to work your way up from a performance point of view. Or you can take the approach that we've taken, which is to say we're going to try and solve the performance piece first. We're going to try and get the human out of the loop first. And then once we've solved that, we can start to optimize on some of the other parameters. And in fact, the approach we took is even a bit more extreme than that.
What we did is we said we want to get the human out of the loop as quickly as possible, and we want to do that in one of the most complex driving environments You can imagine, which is downtown San Francisco. So we set the bar incredibly high from a performance point of view. And in order to have a shot at solving that, we then relaxed a bunch of other constraints. So we said we're going to throw as much compute as we possibly can at the problem. We're going to throw as many sensors as we need to at the problem.
We're going to use high definition maps to help get there. And we're going to put in place a geofence if we need to, to sort of optimize around that. And so what we did then was to work really hard on driving the level of performance up that 1000x improvement that you saw To get to the point where we can take the human out of the loop. And unsurprisingly, along the way of driving up that performance, we A lot of unknown unknowns, unanticipated problems, things we hadn't thought would happen along the way. And that's why we felt it was so important to solve that Part of the equation first to get to the point where we know we can take the human out of the loop and do that safely.
And then we can start to optimize on things like operating domain and taking costs down and so on. And the bet that we're making essentially and we have a high level of confidence in is that we will be able to take costs down and open up operating domain Much more quickly in a much shorter time frame than it will take an L2 based system to make the performance improvements necessary To get to that generalized low cost autonomy. And so we've taken the performance first, cost another factor second path, We think that path is going to get to the place that we all want to go, more quickly than other approaches that you see on the road. On the chart that I showed earlier, the scatterplot, just to put that in a bit more context, if you think about an L2 system today and if you watch a YouTube video Of an L2 system and is driving in a city scene, for example, and it's 10 or 15 or 30 minutes between The driver having to intervene to avoid an incident, that level of performance would be off the bottom of the chart that I showed you.
The level of performance that we're at today, if you're watching a YouTube video of Cruise Car driving around San Francisco, you would have to watch a few 1000 hours A few thousand hours of footage or a few months you have to sit there and watch before you saw an incident caused by One of our vehicles in that time. So it's literally orders of magnitude, the performance difference, and we think that performance position operate without a human in the loop now. It is more expensive. And so the question becomes, how do you deploy that into a business successfully and profitably and grow a business off of that? And This is where the partnership between Cruise and GM becomes incredibly important.
So as most of you know today, we're operating a fleet of Bolt AVs That's our development fleet and that's also the vehicle fleet that we will initially commercialize with through this early commercialization period here. And so having that vehicle purpose built or purpose upgraded to support our AV system by GM And built in the factory and that level of reliability has been a huge advantage for us from a development point of view, but that's really just the beginning. The real game changer is the Cruise Origin. And the Cruise Origin is our purpose built vehicle for both ride hail and delivery, And that is the thing that allows us to commercialize this technology profitably and successfully in the near term because the Origin is built not just to have an awesome customer experience, But also to operate at a really low cost. And so the cost advantage of Origin relative to a retrofitted vehicle, even including our Bolt AV, It's about a 60% to 70% lower cost per mile relative to the retrofitted vehicle.
So that is a huge and unique cost advantage that we have. And that is going to allow us to scale up the business based on technology with a human out of the loop. Even though that technology carries a higher cost, we're able to amortize that cost over a high utilization fleet, high mileage vehicle and do that at a compelling cost point. But even that, so let's roll forward a little way and we have 1,000, tens of 1,000, 100 of 1,000 of Origins on the road. Even that's really just the beginning of the opportunity.
The second huge opportunity comes when we've taken the cost curve even further down, And we're now at a price point with full autonomy that we can deploy that into retail vehicles. So you can go to your local dealer and buy a car that has A Cruise L4 system capability inside of it and with the partnership with GM, obviously gives us a huge opportunity to turn that into a reality And to do that at really large scale. So we're going to grow the cruise fleet and then we're going to take the technology and deploy it even much more broadly than that So the Origin, as I said, is a unique vehicle. And it's pretty interesting if you step back and think about it that for all the activity, for all the effort, for all the companies that are working on AV, No one else has committed to build a purpose built vehicle for the task in large volume. No one else has committed to do that in large volume.
We've had a number of companies, some of our competitors have the foresight to realize that a purpose built vehicle is necessary to deliver the user experience that you want to have, But they haven't set those up in a way that they can be built at OEM scale. On the flip side, other competitors have said, we want to Have an existing production platform and the advantages of that, but are completely ignoring the need or the point that those vehicles don't serve The user case don't serve the user experience in anywhere near the way they need to. So with Origin, we have a unique multiyear lead And being the only company that's got a purpose built vehicle that can deliver really low cost point and a really awesome user experience And do that at OEM production scale. But the cost opportunity goes well beyond just the Origin and the Origin Vehicle platform. We're also working behind the scenes to take costs down on all the other components of the vehicle.
Here's an example of what we're doing on the compute side. Over 4 generations of compute, we'll be taking the cost down by more than 90%. More than 90%. So Our prior generation of compute that served us well over the last few years, we just retired that. We've just retrofitted our existing fleet with our current generation of compute.
That will carry us through to the beginning of production of Origin, which will take another big chunk of cost and more than a third of cost out again from there. And then when we get to a couple of years into Origin, we'll be at our next generation of compute again, which will take another big chunk of cost down. So if you go back to that 2 by 2 matrix, we've driven up the performance to a really high level, and we're working really aggressively Through Origin, through Compute, through everything else to move that down that cost curve and into that upper right hand corner here. One thing I would like call out here is another big investment that we're making at Cruise as in custom silicon. We have a couple major custom silicon programs underway.
And the reason I raise this here Again, this is another thing where the easy thing to do would be to continue to use off the shelf, but the right thing to do to drive costs down in the long run is to make the upfront investment necessary To get fully optimized hardware for everything that we need, so we can drive cost and performance exactly where we need it to go. And there'll be more to share on that at the Under the Hood event in November. Okay. So that's a little bit about the overall approach And what's got us to this point. So where are we right now?
So we're in the middle of this early commercialization phase. In San Francisco, we're doing Driverless testing, as you know, and we're about very soon going to move from that into offering rides to passengers, fully driverless rides to passengers. And then on the delivery side in Phoenix, we have a delivery pilot that's actually quickly ramping up into something more than a pilot With Walmart, that's going on right now, and that will move into a driverless mode a little bit later As we get later in the early commercialization stages here. So on the regulatory front, We are making really great progress. We need 6 permits in total to get to do paid ride hail Driverless in California.
We have 5 of the 6th. The 5th one, we just received late last week. And the next one we're just applying for now. We couldn't apply for the last one until we got the one that we just got. And we would hope to receive that last one In the early part of next year.
You'll also notice here that the number of permits issued is decreasing pretty rapidly as you go the page, so there are more than 50 companies that had driverless test permits for California Sorry, more than 50 that have driver and supervised test permits went down to about 8 companies that have driverless test permits. We think only probably 3 of those have actually been used. And now when we get down to the business end of things here, it's 1 or 2 or 3 companies, that have these permits. And of the 3 driverless deployment permits, the one that we just received last week, one of the other ones is for neuro, delivery only And the other one is for Waymo, but their driverless permit requires a safety driver. So I don't know how that works, but that's what it is.
So we're getting very close. Obviously, we need our last permit in order to charge for rides. Charging for rides is an important part of the business model. So we're looking forward To getting that permit and being able to move ahead with that. On the ride hails side, our approach to product Is to offer a fully vertically integrated service, so all the way from the customer, back through the entire AV and everything around that.
And The reason we think that's incredibly important is that will allow us to iterate that end to end experience incredibly rapidly. And so Just as we have with the core technology and driving an exponential rate of improvement there, we're going to be aiming to do the same thing and we're already doing it internally, Iterating that user experience with a new with a release every week and continuing to make really rapid improvements On that as well. And by controlling that entire end to end customer experience, we'll be able to do that quickly, gain all the insights And build what we think will be an amazing experience for our customers. On the delivery side, we've been growing this With Walmart over the last year or so, the partnership was put in place right around this time last year, October, November last year. Walmart made an investment, took an ownership stake in Cruise earlier this year.
And since then, we've been working together to ramp up Autonomous Deliveries, we have increased and added to our capabilities in order to be able to do this, and this is the benefit of operating In a different operating domain, so we've added 45 mile an hour driving capabilities. We've added things like parking lot navigation, so the AV can navigate all the way through So the Walmart parking lot to get loaded up and so on. We've done a few thousand deliveries already and just really getting started. So really Excited about this, really excited about the partnership with Walmart. Okay.
So that's sort of the current focus is This transition from minimum viable technology, minimum viable product, taking both delivery and ride hail to a point of product market fit By the end of next year and again, the reason that's so important is that the Origin begins production early in 2023, and we need to be ready For those Origins, as they start rolling off the line and ready to deploy those. So the Origin The Origin is awesome, right? The Origin has a for Doctor Who fans out there, you'll think it's TARDIS like when you see it tomorrow. It's got a huge amount of space on the inside, but a pretty small footprint on the outside. It's the same length as a Chevy Cruze, believe it or not.
But when you get inside, it's got an enormous amount of space. And one of the reasons that, that's so important is we wanted to create an environment where shared rides are actually enjoyable. If you've ever taken a shared ride in an Uber or something like that, you know it's not that awesome an experience. And if we want to have the impact that we want to have on congestion and so on, Then we wanted to make shared rides that are a great experience. And I think you'll when you sit in the Origin tomorrow, you'll absolutely understand what we're talking about there.
But the Origin is about more than just ride hail. The Origin also already has a delivery mode. We have a delivery unit that you can see on the left hand side here that we can take and slide in and out of the origin. So every origin can be converted from passenger mode To delivery mode multiple times if necessary inside of a 24 hour operating cycle, and that's going to be really important to drive utilization, And it's going to be really important to obviously optimize full use of the fleet. So passenger mode to delivery mode, All enabled by the spaciousness and functionality of the platform.
And looking beyond that, we're working on Mobility version, wheelchair accessible origin. Again, given the volume of space inside, these kinds of use cases become incredibly easy, And it allows us to fulfill our promise of making transportation available on better terms to people than they have it today. And so as much as the Origin delivers this awesome user experience and this incredible flexibility and functionality, As I said earlier, it also delivers that at a really low cost. And the reason that's become even more important is that Uber and Lyft prices, for example, Much higher today than they were, 50% higher today than they were pre COVID. And so our ability to Come in and deliver affordable transportation has only been enhanced by that.
But interestingly, notwithstanding those 50% higher prices, The rideshare companies are still not materially profitable today, and we think Origin will deliver a very different result for us. So let's take a quick look at the economics here. On the left hand side, you see a rough estimate of economics of a rideshare ride In San Francisco today, you're paying $5 a mile, probably more than that on average, for Arrive NSF today. And of that, the vast majority goes to the driver, the take rate by the driver, 75%, 80%. The balance goes to the rideshare company, and they spend that on funding their expenses and costs, and they basically break even.
So that's the math of that business today. Two fundamental differences in our model, the first being that we don't split the revenue. We get all the revenue. And then because we have a lower cost structure, we're able to charge less And make a profit. It's as simple as that.
We obviously keep all the revenue. We have a lower cost structure. We can charge less and make a profit. This $1.50 a mile that I'm showing you here, this is not a 10 years down the road thing. This is something that can happen really early on with the origin given the cost advantage And so the reason that's so important is the more we can drive costs down, the faster we can drive costs down, The more rapidly we can open up the TAM and open up additional markets.
So if ride hail and SF is $5 in top 5 cities, it's maybe $4 in It's $3 on a nationwide basis. And so we will be able to get into those markets really quickly. But where things get really interesting and the TAM gets really big That's when you start to get into where personal car ownership is at $1 a mile, in some places $0.60 a mile in others. So that's where we really open up the market opportunity. So we've obviously developed a bottoms up model and a set of projections.
Unfortunately, we're not in a position to share all of those with you today, but I can give you some directional guidance on how we think about this. So if you look at other companies that have Brought breakthrough products to very large markets and how quickly they have gotten to, say, dollars 50,000,000,000 in revenue. So Tesla will hit about $50,000,000,000 of revenue this year. If you look at AWS, a completely different example, but again, bringing a whole new product into an existing market, enterprise IT, cloud computing to enterprise IT, had $50,000,000,000 of revenue, in about 8 years. So Tesla was 9 years AWS, 8 years.
Uber, very relevant, obviously, on a gross bookings basis, not on a revenue basis. Uber had $50,000,000,000 of gross bookings in 6 years, and we see absolutely no reason why that is not achievable with what we're doing here. And if you want to look even more aggressively than that, if you look at iPhone, iPhone hit $50,000,000,000 of annual revenue in about 4 years. So it was pretty amazing. So the point being that there is we are bringing a better product at a lower cost into a really big market, And we expect to be able to scale the business incredibly rapidly inside of that.
So that's one thing to look at some top side estimates and say that's Interesting and $50,000,000,000 and that sounds great, but how are you going to do it? Like what is actually going to happen next? And how is this going to unfold? So as we think about the scaling of the cruise fleet, it won't surprise you probably that we're thinking about that exponentially, just like we think about everything else. And so we are focused on starting small, very small and then growing very rapidly just as we have in driving our overall performance.
And so in the very near term here, we'll be deploying sort of ones and then tens of AVs and starting that journey. And then through next year, on the Bolt platform, it will get up to 100. And so that's sort of the early commercialization phase here. And then when we roll into Origin early in 'twenty three, it starts to get more interesting. Then you're talking about 1,000 in the 1st year, and then you go to tens of 1,000.
And then within a couple of years after that, you're at 100 of 1,000. And so again, this idea of the ability to scale exponentially is something that we're very focused on. And all of our internal operational deployment plans at Cruise are built around exactly this 10x Kind of model, what needs to be true to deploy 1,000 AVs that's different than 100 or 10,000 that's different than 1,000 and understanding those Blockers in those Pareto's and burning those down so that we're in a position to scale. So a few different things that will help enable that as we go. The first is our tech road map.
So the same sort of engineering firepower that allows us that has allowed us to drive that exponential improvement that you saw And our core safety performance is the same engineering firepower that we can deploy to help the scaling. And so as our core Our performance improves, it will allow us to do things like open up the operating domain, add very bad weather capability, Add your highway speed and high speed driving and improve the flexibility of the total AV system to be deployed on other vehicles. And at the same time that we're improving those things, we'll also be driving down several other things. We'll be driving down the sensor count on the vehicle. As software performance improves, we can take down Sensor count, now that we're already know how to be at this greater than human level of performance.
We'll be reducing MAP dependence As we go over time, so you're going from a high dependence on MAX, reducing that over time reducing the remote assistance that our vehicles need when they need to call home For help to interpret or understand the situation and then also driving down cost very aggressively As we go. And all of that again is enabled by this kind of this internal machine that generates this exponential improvement and we can aim that at all of these areas. In addition, one crucial area that we've invested and continue to invest really heavily is an incredibly important tool for our ongoing development cycle, but it's also an incredibly important tool and will be an important tool To drive our ability to scale because what we can't do is go into a new market and then say, well, now we need to drive X 1000000 miles to prove that we're ready to go. We need to be able to do the vast majority of that work in simulation. The origin will be validated largely In simulation, the Origin is already driving autonomously in simulation and has been for quite some time even though it hasn't gone out Onto public roads yet.
So the investment in simulation is a critical tool to enable rapid scaling into other markets. And then on the operational side, there's a huge investment going on here as well. There's it's one thing to say we're going to have GM build 100 of thousands of AVs for us, but we need to be able to deploy those and actually operate them on the ground. So we've been building our talent base here. We've been incredibly lucky To hire Gil West, who was the COO of Delta Airlines to be Cruise's COO.
His job at Delta was to keep 200,000,000 passengers a year safe and happy, and that's the same job That he has accrues. And so we've built out the operating bench. But what we're not planning to do is to create a huge Labor intensive manual set of processes around this. What we very much want to do is to automate as much as we can and to give the team as many tools as they can just as we did on the engineering side to enable the fleet to be deployed in a very efficient kind of way. And ultimately, we want to get to point where the fleet is almost fully distributed where it's we rarely have to touch it at all.
And so one of the other keys to unlock that is something we call OPI, Which is other people's infrastructure, which is what we most like to use rather than building a lot of our own. So between the tech road map, Simulation to enable validation into new markets, infrastructure and operations and boots on the ground and tools and automation of that, Delivering that 10x continual exponential improvement and deployment that I described earlier, we think is very much within our reach. So what does all this mean? What is this all going to look like over the next few years? So over the next 12 to 24 months, the next 1 to 2 years, you will be able to push a button and get a ride with a very short ETA In a couple of major cities in the United States.
So this thing that we've all been waiting for, this thing that we've all felt is still sort of science fiction y to some extent is about to become science And that's a big deal. So that's the next 12 to 24 months. If you look out to sort of 3 to 4 years, We'll be deployed in multiple cities, multiple markets around the U. S. There'll be a number of people that are using Cruise as their primary mode of transportation We will open up capabilities like highway driving and inclement weather and things like that.
When you look out 5 to 6 years from now, we'll be in every place you can imagine around the United States and in multiple markets Around the world, our system will be driving in all conditions. Our system will be driving just about everywhere. Our costs will be down and be reaching parity or below parity of personal car ownership in a lot of places. Our technology will be starting to be deployed On to retail vehicles that people can go into their dealership and buy and will be scaling up that sort of new business model for us at that point in time. And when you look out beyond that, 8 to 10 years from now, I think we'll look back and we'll see that we've started to actually bend the curve On road safety in the United States and around the world, it will be a demonstrable change in the statistics, the horrifying statistics that we all see out there.
We will change the physical profile of our cities. Your parking spaces and all of the things that are set aside for the car And cities will be given back to the humans in the cities. Our cities will be cleaner and less congested, and people will have access to transportation that don't have access to transportation today. And I think what we'll also see 8 to 10 years from now is the impact that AI has had on the real world, Impact that AI has had on the real world and the impact it's had on transportation. And I think what we'll recognize Is that this is the huge really positive impact that AI can have, the intersection of AI and robotics.
And I think we'll look back sort of quaintly on when AI was sort of mostly about ad placement and social media feeds, and then we'll understand that the real impact is what happened in this next Iteration of AI deployed into the real world. At that time, Cruise will have the world's largest distributed supercomputer platform. We'll have the world's largest distributed mobile sensor platform. And I think the Cruise development platform for AI and robotics will be in use cases Well beyond just autonomy as we're thinking about it today. So we're all incredibly excited, really excited about what lies ahead.
We have an amazing team of people at Cruise. We have amazing partners and team of people at GM that are supporting us. And we're incredibly excited about not just 8 to 10 years from now, What's happening right now and what's going to be happening here in the next 6, 12, 18 months, and we can't wait to share it with you. Thank you very much.
Well, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for coming today and thanks for hanging in there with us. You've heard a lot this afternoon about how we're going to leverage our software expertise to create and take advantage of one revenue or new business opportunity after another. Well, now I get to update you on one of the most exciting applications of this strategy, our Super Cruise advanced driver assistance technology, As well as the next step in that area, which I'll talk about shortly. Before I do that, however, I'd like to echo some of my colleagues And reemphasize the importance of software at General Motors, especially from my perspective as Head of Global Product Development.
I must say GPD is quite the vantage point to watch GM transitioning from an automaker to a platform innovator. We have 15,000 software engineers and developers working every day on this crucial part of our company's transformation and growth strategy. They're focused on our new software platform, as Scott talked about, Ultifi, and the revenue opportunities it will bring, as well as other areas like autonomous driving, Propulsion, battery management, active safety, body controls, infotainment and many other parts of the business, and they're leading us into the future. In some ways, the future began back in 2017 when we first introduced Super Cruise on the Cadillac CT6. It became the industry's first truly hands free driver assistance technology and its success, its performance and its resonance with our customers has been well documented.
When surveyed, our CT6 customers told us that after having Super Cruise, more than 85% of them either would only consider Or would prefer having Super Cruise in their next vehicle. That's customer satisfaction. And since its introduction, more than 10,000,000 have been driven using Super Cruise on more than 200,000 miles of roads in the U. S. And Canada and counting.
The feature is not only expanded to more models, but is added capability, due in part to our teams of engineers Who launched our vehicle intelligence platform that enabled improvements like these. Lane change on demand, Adjust your lane change lever, the vehicle looks for an opening on the road. If it's clear, moves over into that lane, cruises on by the slower traffic. And even better thing, automatic lane change. So now you've set your speed, you're cruising along in your middle lane, your vehicle approaches slower moving traffic, It automatically looks to see if there's an opening, moves over, passes the slower traffic, moves back.
I tell you, it's spectacular when you drive it. It's smooth, it's comfortable, terrific feature. Trailering, those of you who have Had some trailering experience? No, it's not quite as easy going as the regular driving experience. I'll tell you with Super Cruise, it's brilliant.
You're in control, that trailer and that vehicle move together. And then enhanced navigation, this is where you get to select more Super Cruise enabled roads. And these features will not just be available on 'twenty two models, but also back cast to select 'twenty one models using over the air updates, thanks to VIP. We'll have Super Cruise on 22 models by 2023 and add still more in the model years immediately following. And by the way, customers are paying more than $2,000 for this feature and loving it.
And it's going to get even better. I'm thrilled to announce today the next step is coming in 2023 and it's called Ultra Cruise. Ultra Cruise is a game changer. At launch, Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2,000,000 miles in the United of all driving scenarios and will eventually be available on every paved road in the U. S.
Ultra Cruise is not just a game changer in terms of what enables, Which is a door to door hands free driving experience, but a technological one as well, and it's been developed completely in house. It will be the premier ADAS system on the market in both capability and safety, and it's powered by a 5 nanometer compute architecture With processing capability future proof for years to come. The perception system uses 3 kinds of sensor, of course, Cameras, radar and like Super Cruise and we've also added LIDAR on the vehicle. The AI, which has been developed jointly by in North America and Israel fuses these sensory inputs to create a perception system that is extremely robust. The sensors are positioned to provide the AI a 4 dimensional 360 degree understanding of its surroundings.
The four dimensions are the 3 spatial dimensions as well as time. The addition of radar and lidar essentially provide a sense of touch to the AI to enable it to rationalize and augment the camera input. It's really important that you have all three of those. When it's dark, Foggy, raining or snowing or during one of the many unpredictable events that happen on the road that shouldn't be there, These additional inputs help the AI sense objects and conditions the cameras alone cannot. The sensor inputs are sent through our proprietary feature extraction AI stack, which is shown to the right of the car on the picture behind me.
These sensors use the information to build the AI's view of the world around the vehicle. Both GM and Cruise have studied lower content systems like vision only And believe they will not meet our performance and safety standards, the ones our customers expect and the ones all customers deserve. Speed drives us, but so does safety, and we will have both. So this is a video showing our Ultra Cruise dynamic display. This will be available in the line of sight of the driver when Ultra Cruise is in control of the vehicle.
The image is built upon the AI perception, Coordinates and route planning that I've been talking about, and it shows the driver what the system is seeing and planning to do. So, as you can see here, the vehicle operates, stops at stop signs. When the stop signs turn green, goes forward, pedestrians in the road, stops. And it continues through much like a fully capable level 4 system, but we have to have a driver, there is a supervisor, And this will work on 95% of the roads. It will be a terrific experience.
A lot of people will call this autonomous driving even though We will need a driver to supervise the vehicle. It will be a terrific experience. So Ultra Cruise will leverage the platform and VIP to enable the system to evolve over time, with more frequent updates, adding features, services and functions all over the air. This will not only help keep Ultra Cruise leading edge, but also allow GM to gather vital data to enhance performance both now and in the future. The combination of Ultra Cruise for premium offerings and Super Cruise for lower cost products will enable us to offer driver assistance technology Across price points and segments.
Both technologies represent value to the customer, both improving over time, both earning revenue for our company. In a sense, it's the same holistic approach we're taking with EVs, where we want everybody in, so we're offering a broad range of products across our portfolio To have EVs in every segment at every price point. Now Cruise, as Dan just discussed, is developing and launching a driverless, Fully autonomous level 4 vehicle and it's on a rapid path to commercialization. This is how we plan to be first And win and ride share, autonomous delivery and other AV services. Super Cruise and Ultra Cruise are advanced driver assist systems allowing GM to capture the lead in the retail market right now and in the future.
These systems add features and benefits over time to By customers what they want and will pay for. We, GM and Cruise, working together have the technology, the expertise, The scale to capture both the driver assistance the advanced driver assistance as well as the driverless AV market opportunities before anyone else. This is technology that will generate revenue for our company, that will make our customers' lives better and will change the world of transportation forever. So keep that in mind tomorrow as you experience Super Cruise and these other technologies firsthand. When it all takes flight for real, sooner than you might think, we're going to lead the way.
So thanks for your attention today. I hope you enjoy the rest of the program. And now I'd like to introduce Gerald Johnson.
Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for sticking with us. You may have heard it said before that manufacturing electric vehicles is insanely difficult. That's true for some. But for General Motors, it's a core competency and a competitive advantage.
With over 40 years of experience with General Motors in manufacturing, I will tell you confidently that our manufacturing strength is key to our growth strategy. It brings to life all of the innovative design and forward thinking ideas you've seen and heard here today. For more than a century, We've made real products for everyone through good times and bad, war and peace, pandemics and prosperity. It's this deep experience that allows us to pivot with agility and reallocate our manufacturing footprint to EVs, while continuing to improve safety, quality and cost. We have a transition road map focused on 5 elements: Our factories, our speed, our scale and flexibility, our people and our sustainability, That's what I want to share with you today.
Let me start out with our factories. To meet GM's ambitious EV transition, more than 50% Of our North America and China manufacturing footprint will be capable of EV production by 2,030. Globally, we are renovating vehicle assembly plants, converting our engine plants to battery pack facilities and building drive units at our transmission plants, Leveraging these established assets for EV production reduces capital expenditures up to $1,500,000,000 Per assembly plant versus an all new plant. Factory 0, our flagship EV production facility is the perfect example. Pre production for the GMC HUMMER EV pickup began last month, and we are on track to deliver the first vehicles to customers by the end of this year.
Rather than put shovels in the ground, build a new plant from scratch, we renovated our Detroit facility and ultimately repurposed about 80% Of the existing infrastructure and processing equipment. We didn't build walls. We didn't have to create a shipping yard. We didn't have to add utilities or build an infrastructure. We already have them.
We also retooled Factory 0 with the best and most advanced technology To build the highest quality, most efficient vehicles. In fact, we are continually leveraging new tools and innovating our processes in all of our plants. That includes auto closure installed in our body shops, automatic detection and repair in our paint shops and a fully connected paperless factory in our assembly shops, Always with an eye on safety, quality and efficiency. We've incorporated all of these systems and initiatives at Factory 0 and Still did it for 2 thirds of the capital required to build an all new plant. Similarly, we will utilize new FlexFab fixtureless bending, forming and welding along with additive processing.
They save costs because they eliminate fixed tooling and again reduce capital expenditures. By 2,030, we will have avoided up to $15,000,000,000 in capital costs by renovating versus building new. That number grows between $20,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 once we've transitioned our entire footprint by 100%. That's capital that can be redeployed more strategically for additional customer facing technologies, products and services. Now speed, really important in this business.
Along with our capital advantage, renovating our existing network of facilities also saves time. Speeding launch implementation to start production quicker, getting products to customers sooner. We announced the plan for Factory 0 in January 2020 And started preproduction within 20 months. While it was a very fast turnaround, some of our other plants will be converted even faster, Thanks to our concurrent build strategy. This allows us to build ICE and EV models in the same facility, significantly reducing downtime For greater overall efficiency.
Such quick conversions support a shorter development cycle, along with virtual Tools and parallel processing with our product development team and years of launch experience, we've been able to cut manufacturing launch time in half From approximately 2 years to just below 1 year. Greenfield construction, on the other hand, could take up to 4 years to go from site Preparation to vehicles actually rolling off the line. Take it from me, an all new plant also requires much more time and resources to validate, troubleshoot and synchronize processes. The fact that 80% of an assembly process for an EV is the same As what we do for ICE is also an enabler for speed. ICE or EV, they all have seats, they all have doors, they all have windshields and windshield wipers And many other common parts.
They process through body shops and paint shops in the same amount of time. In fact, we can produce or assemble an EV In the same amount of working hours it takes to produce an ICE vehicle today. Now for some companies that are still dipping their toes in this complex space, this is Unique and unusual, but for GM, we have refined and perfected our own standardized processes for decades. That means We will launch our EVs faster with superior quality and at a lower cost. Now we all know an all electric future is coming.
3rd party forecasts show widely varying penetration projections in the U. S. By 2,030, anywhere from 20% to more than 40%. And of course, we are aligned and supportive of the Biden administration goal of 50% EV sales by 2,030. Wherever the market goes though, we are prepared to accommodate even the most aggressive demand curve and adjust to uncertainties That will ultimately occur in the market over time.
Our footprint is able to morph with the market and preserve revenue opportunities for GM no matter the pace Or speed of EV adoption. This includes the anticipated growth you heard from Dan of Cruise AV Technology and the origin that will be built also at Factory 0. The bottom line is we built greater flexibility in our value chain and our manufacturing processes in order to adapt to EV and autonomous capacity that changes with customer adoption scenarios. This allows us to balance EV and ICE demand over the next decade. So at 2025, our North American EV vehicle assembly capacity will reach 20%, and it will climb to 50% by 2,030.
Over 3 years ago, we made the commitment to an EV future, And we strategized our transition. Some of our facilities such as Factory 0 and also our Orient facility will be dedicated EV producers, While others will serve dual roles like our Spring Hill, Tennessee plant, which will produce the all new Lyriq next year Alongside Cadillac ICE SUVs. By converting this existing plant for EV production, including adding an all new battery plant for the same property SpringHill will be a vertically integrated complex that saves time, cost and again, capital investment. Lyric production starts in 2022, and the Tennessee battery plant will start in 2023. The total investment for the plant conversion and the new battery plant is $4,000,000,000 compared to what would have been a significantly higher Total investment and much longer lead time for an all new facility.
It's another example of our concurrent production strategy that enables us to scale production Based on customer adoption curves, and we expect to scale the EV production faster than anyone. And by the way, Mark mentioned earlier a rider's question. At $60,000 will we be able to make enough lyrics? As the manufacturing lead, I will tell you hands down the answer is yes. The Altium platform further enables manufacturing scalability because we are able to commonize and streamline tooling and assembly processes across All of our assembly plants.
This drives greater flexibility within our manufacturing network and again with lower capital investments. Additionally, we will manufacture battery cells right here in the United States, bringing new capacity, new capabilities and new jobs. Each new facility will add 1100 new jobs. The decision to manufacture our own battery cells is an important factor in our EV success. And what you're seeing here on the screen is just a rendering of Lordstown Ultium plant, which is currently under construction.
It provides us with greater supply chain control and more efficient vertical integration while further increasing flexibility and scalability. It will give us unmatched battery cell capacity in the U. S, which is fundamental to the EV transition. Our first two battery plants in Lordstown, Ohio Spring Hill, Tennessee will have a combined capacity of 70 gigawatt hours. Lordstown will go online next year with SpringHill following in 2023.
We also add 2 additional battery factories By mid decade, doubling overall capacity and allowing us to accumulate cell manufacturing experience faster. The other key element of our success and competitive advantage is our people. Our people, they are experienced and skilled workforce. They are our greatest asset and a key advantage for us. It is essential for our EV transition for our people, more than 90,000 industrial problem solvers on our manufacturing team, Have 1,400,000 years of collective experience.
1,400,000 years of collective experience. They are managing on average 11 major launches every year, both ICE and EV, while others are still struggling to launch their first vehicle. We are building on that experience with the training that will deliver EV and AV launch success with safety, quality and speed, while continuing to drive down cost. As we execute our EV transition, this team will continue to deliver 3% to 5% productivity year over year. And in fact, we remain on track for best in class manufacturing costs as a percent of net sales at 7%.
And we'll do this while we continue to transition to an all EV future. That's the strength and competitive advantage of our people, And workforce to the EV transition also contributes to GM's pledge to go carbon neutral by 2,040. In fact, We announced last week that we are pulling ahead our commitment to 100% renewable energy for our U. S. Facilities by 5 years.
Thanks to faster progress at our facilities and with our energy suppliers, it's the 3rd time we've been able to pull ahead that target from 2,050 To 2030 and now to 2025. It's an exciting industry leading initiative, and I'll be go back to Factory 0 as a proof point. During its conversion, we reused or recycled almost every material that came out of it, including crushed concrete from the old floor. It was repurposed for temporary roads around the facility, while stormwater was recycled to reduce discharge costs and offset the cost of potable water. The treated stormwater will be used in cooling towers and the plant's fire suppression system.
The transformation also include initiatives that will be models for our other facilities, Including a large solar array that's capable of generating 500 kilowatt hours. That combined with our partnership with DTE, We will provide enough power to run the plant from renewable energy resources with an eye to eventually return power to the grid. Similarly, when the revamped Spring Hill plant starts producing the Cadillac Lyric next year, its power will come entirely From solar generated electricity supplied by the Tennessee Valley Authority. As we continue to renovate our existing facilities, We'll always take care of our environment, our forested areas and environmentally sensitive habitats. Again, using Factory 0 as a proof point, We maintain the 16 acre wildlife habitat that's home to monarchs and foxes and turkeys.
Decarbonization is a focus objective across All of our facilities because it's the right thing to do and because it's also good business. In conclusion, let me reiterate Why manufacturing is a core competency and competitive advantage for General Motors when it comes to our EV transition. As I discussed, Our roadmap is focused on 5 fundamental elements: our factories, which are a capital advantage compared to new construction, Freeing up resources that can be redeployed for other customer facing investments. Our speed of implementation, allowing us to get new products to customers sooner While supporting the shorter product development cycles necessary to convert to our EV portfolio, our industry leading scale and flexibility For unprecedented capability to meet demand curves and adoption rates. And again, most importantly, our people, An experienced workforce with 1,400,000 cumulative years of launching vehicles with safety, quality, speed and cost.
And we'll do all this sustainably with a drive to carbon neutrality that allows us to go with 100% renewably sourced energy in the U. S. Manufacturing By 2025, 25 years faster than our original projection. The bottom line is this. We recognize And are prepared for what will be a fundamental shift in mobility.
And led by our 0 vision driven by our agility, we will take our manufacturing leadership Into the EV transformation as well. Yes, for some manufacturing, I quote, is insanely difficult. But at General Motors, we've been doing exactly that every day for more than 100 years. And while I can't walk you all through Factory 0 today, I'm going to do the next best thing. Let me introduce you to our plant executive director of Factory 0, Jim Quick, who will give you a video tour of Factory 0.
The 48 months to be fully functional, factory 0 will go from 0 to vehicle production in less than half that time. We've also incorporated the To build the highest quality vehicles prioritizing safety. Whether it's job pacing screens for high-tech time operations, Wireless tethering or automated guide vehicle capabilities, nearly everything at Factory 0 is connected. Our greatest strength though remains our workforce with 2,200 manufacturing jobs right here at Factory 0. We're a part of more than the 90,000 industrial problem solvers that comprise our global manufacturing team.
We have 2nd and third generation employees here at the plant. They believe in an all electric future, and we're bringing everybody along with us. Vehicles produced here are built on the modular Altium platform, which is the heart of GM ZV strategy. Its flexibility sets the stage for everything we're going to build here at Factory 0, from the all new GMC HUMMER EV To the Chevrolet Silverado Electric Pickup Truck to autonomous vehicles such as the Cruise Origin, and that's just the beginning. The Altium platform further contributes to a strategic value chain shift across our manufacturing network because we're able to Commonized and streamlined tooling and assembly processes for numerous assembly facilities, driving greater flexibility within our manufacturing network Along with lower capital investments and greater efficiency.
Factory 0 is a significant step in realizing our vision for a future with 0 crashes, Zero emissions and 0 congestion. Pre production is underway for the GMC Hummer EV pickup as part of our validation process As we look forward to delivering the first vehicles to customers by the end of this year, while also preparing to build a fully autonomous cruise origin in preparation for commercialization In 2023, we're building on the success and applying key learnings from Factory 0 to our factories around the world to build the best EVs in the industry. With our factory footprint, our speed of implementation, our scale and flexibility, our people and our commitment to sustainability, We do not believe there is anyone better positioned than General Motors to lead the all electric future. Manufacturing is our strength and our competitive advantage.
Please welcome GM Chief Financial Officer, Paul Jacobson.
Thank you, Gerald, and thanks to everyone. Thanks to everyone who Joining us today, and I really appreciate Gerald and all the leaders being out here, projecting the confidence around these plans that we see today. The reality is this is an incredibly exciting time to be a part of the GM story as a customer, an investor, a stakeholder or an employee. I joined GM less than a year ago like several of the executives that you've heard from today. And like them, I've been amazed every single day about the opportunities that have stood ahead of us today.
I share with my team regularly how special it is that we're here At this iconic company, at this moment in history, it truly is a once in a generation opportunity and a once in a generation moment. I do believe that one day we're going to tell our grandchildren that we were here on the forefront of this transformational change because what is happening at General Motors There's nothing short of remarkable. So I invite you to lean in a little bit. I know it's been a long day and really take to heart A full summary of everything that you've heard today and over the last few hours because what you're going to hear from me is a vision of what we think is achievable Over the next decade, because we're just at the beginning of a significant transformation. So I ask you to buckle up Because our opportunity set is unmatched by anyone in the industry, startup or otherwise, and it all begins with the foundation of our vehicles and our focus on the customer.
As you've seen and as some of you will experience tomorrow, this is real. It is here and we are just at the beginning. My job today is really to bring all this together and paint a picture of exactly how special this is. You've heard a lot today about the platforms that are going to drive our growth. Mark talked about producing the best vehicles we've ever made in terms of beautiful designs and the broadest range to get everyone in an EV.
Gerald just talked about our significant manufacturing advantage and the fact that our assets represent an opportunity to scale to EVs cheaper and faster because of our vast footprint. Ken and Scott talked about the power and the versatility of GM's dual platform advantage. Alan talked about how we're going to capitalize on the substantial growth opportunity with high margin software and subscription services, including our digital retail platform and our e commerce opportunities. Pam and Travis talked about several new businesses that are going to drive incremental growth and value into the future. And finally, Dan and Doug talked about commercialization of cruise As well as Super Cruise and the newly announced Ultra Cruise.
When we combine our customer loyalty with the breadth of our portfolio And our world class manufacturing, we unlock scale benefits that are going to allow us to grow our existing business as well as incubate new business ventures. Our compelling EVs are going to drive growth while we build our higher margin recurring subscription revenues From tens of 1,000,000 of connected ICE and electric vehicles on the road. Look, I don't have to tell you The technology is rapidly changing before our eyes and changing this industry. Our initiatives in EV, AUV and Connected Vehicles are opening up a broad range of white space opportunities that have previously never existed For auto manufacturers, and that's why this is so exciting. But let me be very clear.
It all begins with this dual platform With the Altium system, we've created a battery that has differentiated strategic value, which is going to allow us to create a variety of vehicles across multiple categories and multiple price points, and most importantly, do it quickly. This will not only drive down sell costs because of scaled production, but even more importantly, the versatility of Altium will allow us to Quickly increase our vehicles on the road to drive new subscription and over the air revenues that will be enabled by this software platform. These are meaningful economies of scale that GM is uniquely positioned to deliver. We've been unequivocal And our declaration that we will become the global leader in EVs. And today, we've shared more detail than ever before on how we're accomplishing this, On our way to selling 1,000,000 plus EVs in 2025, enabled by the diverse suite of vehicles across all price points, including some of the vehicles that you here our President can see around me and even more coming.
Our Altium platform, our planned battery capacity, Our compelling EVs, our high volume vehicles are going to help us drive to number 1 market share in EVs in North America. By doing so, we will have the largest connected vehicle park, which is only going to amplify Our recurring revenue opportunity going forward. In fact, we expect to have 30,000,000 connected vehicles on the road in the U. S. By 2,030, a majority of these are going to have the enhanced capabilities of our newest platform, Ultifi.
But the connected opportunities don't stop with the traditional retail customers as we have other compelling ideas in the incubation phase Within this innovation organization that you heard earlier. But it's important to know that this hasn't happened overnight. It's not a flash in the pan. It didn't just hit us. The reality is that we are here because we've been positioning ourselves for success against this very backdrop since 2015.
We've taken decisive actions to increase profitability and strengthen the business. We refocused our North America portfolio to our most profitable vehicle segments and exited unprofitable internal combustion engines markets, including Europe, India and Southeast Asia, importantly, while preserving the ability and the flexibility to reenter these markets with our EVs in the future. We leveraged a common global vehicle platform in other international regions to drive margin and cash flow improvements. The team identified and realized $4,500,000,000 in annual cost savings. Much of this has been reinvested into our EV transformation and our growth initiatives and our new businesses.
In 2016, this team made a visionary purchase of Cruise Automation with the goal of simply becoming the industry leader in autonomous technology. And today, we're leading the race to AV commercialization through this investment and through the talented team at Cruise. We streamlined our product development organization, allowing us to move faster with each new vehicle program To fully utilize this flexibility that Altium provides, this is going to allow us to drive an increased emphasis on software engineering capabilities. We've been taking aggressive actions to run the business through the pandemic and through these challenges that we're all seeing in the supply chain and these disruptions. This has allowed us to remain focused on the transformation And proudly even accelerating our pace earlier this year.
These decisive actions and investments over the last Several years have uniquely positioned GM to capitalize on the expanded opportunity that this technology shift is driving. It's greater today And the opportunities are greater than they've ever been for automotive companies. Simply stated, We're at an inflection point in which we have the opportunity to double our revenue by 2,030 while also expanding our margins. Let me repeat that to let it sink in. We have the opportunity to double our revenue by 2,030, while also expanding our margins.
But to truly understand how we're going to do that, we need to look at the components of our strategy. First, we expect To be able to grow our vehicle sales and financing services revenue in the 4% to 6% range annually, while expanding our margins through this transition. As Mark explained earlier, we're going to continue to capitalize on the strength of our franchises while growing our EV portfolio and our customer base. During this period, we're committed to moving with urgency, but also ensuring that we proceed with an equitable transition. While our full size truck and SUV portfolio will continue to serve as a funding mechanism as we move to an all electric future, We're also going to ensure that we are skilling the workforce, establish a robust charging infrastructure and keeping ICE vehicles available for our customers that need them for their work or their lifestyles.
We will balance our ICE portfolio through this period of rapid customer adoption, While EV revenue drives a substantial portion of our growth as we capture market share on the coasts as well as growing our EV pickup franchise. With GM Financial, we're also well positioned to grow our financing portfolio In supporting customers with how they want to finance their EV purchase and evolving with them as the market changes in new and creative ways. Our EV revenue is expected to grow approximately $90,000,000,000 in 2,030 as we launch several compelling EVs and high volume segments, some of which we've talked about today. These launches are going to be accelerating over the next several years As we deliver on our goal of offering more than 30 EVs by 2025. Look, that's exciting in its own right, But it really becomes more so when we assess what the connected vehicles and other new businesses are expected to deliver through the decade and even beyond as they create new growth opportunities.
As you can see, We envision a path where these businesses drive more than $80,000,000,000 in new incremental annual revenue. With most of this growth accelerating through the back half of the decade as we scale through EV transformation. First, we have Cruise. As you heard from Dan earlier, we see a period of rapid revenue growth from Cruise as they launch and scale their business over the next several years. By the end of the decade, Cruise has the potential to deliver $50,000,000,000 in annualized revenues.
AVs are an integral piece of the future of mobility and Cruise is a key element of GM's growth strategy. Our vertical integration strategy is a significant enabler for Cruise. The Cruise origin, GM's manufacturing capabilities And funding from GM Financial are going to enable Cruise to scale rapidly. And with an expected 1,000,000 mile vehicle useful life, Our integrated strategy will allow Cruise to achieve an operating cost of $1 per mile, as Dan talked about, as we deploy 100 of thousands of Origins globally. Next, we have software and subscription services.
GM is no longer a company that just sells vehicles. The Ultifi platform will create opportunities for customers to engage with us in new ways over the life of the vehicle through subscriptions and over the air updates. We're already generating significant revenue from software and services, and we see a much Steeper revenue growth trajectory in this space going forward with all the connectivity that we've talked about. For example, as Alan mentioned, our software and services business, Including OnStar already generates $2,000,000,000 of revenue and EBIT margins in excess of 70% today. We have millions of paying subscribers and we have an extensive team of software engineers that are developing new products And new technologies to reach new customers beyond the historical safety and services of OnStar, which is going to drive attachment rates up and create substantial revenue potential.
We believe, obviously, this is an area where revenue can continue to grow quickly by harnessing these new capabilities of the vehicle. We talked about Super Cruise, Ultra Cruise and the other connected vehicles features and services, Which are going to make the customer experience better over time and better on top of that and better on top of that. All of these are compelling technologies and customers have already told us that they are well worth paying for, which is informing our revenue growth estimates. In addition to these services, we can also leverage the connectivity of the vehicle to offer customers a better insurance product, as Pam mentioned. We believe that this can grow to a $6,000,000,000 revenue stream or more by 2,030.
When you combine that with the software and services, this represents The total revenue opportunity of $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 annually. But it's important to remember these ideas are just the beginning because we're considering data commercialization, battery applications and even more, Which we haven't talked about today. And then there's BrightDrop. As Travis told you, we see BrightDrop contributing more than $5,000,000,000 annually by mid decade. We've seen incredibly strong customer interest today with deliveries starting later this year.
We're already expanding production in 2023 at our CAMI facility, And we expect to deliver over 50,000 ELCVs by mid decade as we reach full production capacity. This is going to be incremental to our current vehicle sales and accelerate the pace at which we're able to scale our Altium platform. BrightDrop margins are expected to steadily improve as volumes increase and we anticipate they will approach 20% by mid decade. Later in the decade, we believe BrightDrop will see a lift in services from both the vehicle and the EP1 electric containers, providing high margin and consistent revenue to the business. And as we look to the end of the decade, we believe the BrightDrop business has the potential to generate over $10,000,000,000 in revenue because it is simply better for the delivery process and better for the planet, Which brings me to another point that I'd like to discuss, which is our ability to expand our impact on carbon emissions reduction through the Altium and Hydratech platforms.
As you heard earlier, we view Hydratech fuel cells as a significant long term opportunity And a complement to our Altium platform. We're leveraging over 50 years of fuel cell development experience and getting ready to scale production of our Gen 2 Hydratech Fuel Cell Power Cubes. As Ken also mentioned, we're excited about the opportunities in Class 7 and 8 trucks, locomotives, Aerospace and Marine, and we're working with others to develop more commercial applications. All of this technology is moving us towards our Carbon neutral commitment and our science based target goal of reducing our Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions more than 50% By 2,035 from 2018 base year. And with the versatility that we've demonstrated with Haltium and Hydratech, We can help reduce greenhouse gases from much more than just light duty vehicles, which is going to allow us to make an even bigger impact on the environment.
And this is on top of the announcement we made last week that we accelerated our renewable energy target for the U. S. By 25 years versus our original goal. We will now be 100% renewable in the U. S.
By 2025. These sustainability targets align with our aggressive growth and transformations plans that we've detailed, and we've backed it up with the investments to support it, Including investing $35,000,000,000 on EVs and AVs from 2020 through 2025. This is a significant amount of capital and investment and I'd like to take a moment to go into detail on how these are going to be allocated. We're going to spend $10,000,000,000 on battery and propulsion, research and development battery plants. This is essential.
We're partnering with others. We're doing our own research. We're controlling the manufacturing process and expanding aggressively. We'll invest $6,000,000,000 in crews with commercialization right around the corner. Nearly $20,000,000,000 in capital and engineering related to EV programs, including converting plants from ICE to EV, such as Factory 0, Or giving these plants the capabilities to produce both ICE and EVs such as Spring Hill as well as other new products.
In fact, 2 thirds of our total program investment will be for electric and autonomous vehicles. We expect capital spend, including investments in our Ultium JVs, to be in the $9,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 range over the medium term as we continue to transition from ICE to EV. But due to our strong earnings, our expanding margins, we expect to Fully fund these investments through internally generated funds.
At the
same time, our cash conversion is going to improve Through the decade, despite this elevated CapEx, and we expect to achieve a cash conversion rate of 80% to 90% as we get into the second half of the decade. And as we generate that cash flow, we remain committed to our capital allocation framework. Number 1, we are going to invest in the business. Number 2, we are going to maintain a strong investment grade balance sheet. And number 3, we're going to return cash to our shareholders.
We continue to invest in the business with the intention of driving our growth initiatives forward and seizing leadership in electric, autonomous and Vehicle Software Transformation, creating this once in a generation opportunity to invest in these areas. As a result, we believe our ROIC adjusted is going to continue to improve over the long term as our revenue expands into less cyclical subscription streams and that engage customers in our ecosystems. Our strong balance sheet has served us incredibly well through the years As we've navigated through volatility from recent events as well, which has allowed us to continue investing in our priorities while maintaining our investment grade rating. This is critical to our long term growth prospects. And when we consider returning cash to shareholders, we'll prioritize ways that will allow us to remain nimble And seizing the once in a generation opportunities that we've discussed today.
To wrap up, you've heard a lot today, And I'm excited for many of you to see this innovation in action tomorrow. We wanted to provide one simple page that highlights our Thesis, if you take nothing away, remember this. First, our transformation plan is expected to deliver compelling revenue growth. This includes a potential for nearly 50% compounded growth rate in software and new business revenues as well as 4% to 6% growth in our core auto business. 2nd, we have compelling platforms that will drive Our long term growth and success.
We'll be rolling out the broadest portfolio of electric vehicles in the industry based on our Altium platform, A unique competitive advantage creating more versatility at scale. We're becoming a leader in software enabled services enabled by our And with Cruise, we have a market leading position in autonomous services that as Dan articulated has the potential to deliver $50,000,000,000 in revenue annually by the end of the decade. 3rd, we have the opportunity to drive significant margin expansion. We believe our transformation can deliver margins of 12% to 14% consistently by the end of the decade With core auto business margins expanding as EVs scale and we ramp up our higher margin software and new business platforms, Which is also going to help us diversify our revenue base. We expect these revenues will be more recurring and less cyclical on a go forward basis, Reducing the historic volatility that we've seen.
In short and in closing, we're transforming GM from an automaker to a platform innovator. And in doing so, we're going to change the growth trajectory of our business. Of course, this won't all happen at once as we're in different stages across all of these platforms. But our long term strategies And our annual operating plans are going to be informed by these massive opportunities that you've seen today. We have a startup mindset, and we're continuously incubating new ideas and initiatives, which are going to lead to incremental value For you, our shareholders, over time.
I'm excited for you to see that startup mindset in action tomorrow as you experience this technology that's facilitating this exciting future. Thank you for your interest in GM. Thank you for joining us on our journey today. We are excited to execute on our road map and deliver on all of these visions in the months years to come. Before we take your questions, we're not going to get a chance to stretch and take a short break.
But I thank you for sticking with us today And really look forward to seeing many of you at dinner tonight and through the question and answer session. Thank you.
Our program will resume in 10 minutes with the GM leadership Q and A session.
Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Mike Heifler, Director of Investor Relations. I'm pleased to be joined on stage here with Mary, Mark and Paul. This session is going to run for 35 minutes. We're going to end at approximately 5 And we're really excited to take your questions and hear your feedback.
So please raise your hand if you have a question, And we will get a mic to you. Please state your name and your firm and please stand up.
Rod, please. Okay. Rod Lache with Wolfe Research. Thanks for hosting this. This was really, really impressive.
I had a couple of questions. First
of all,
This transition to software defined vehicles really looks like it can be transformative. And I'm wondering if you can maybe talk a little bit about The internal resources that the company has to actually make that happen. So what percentage of the vehicle software stack Are you capable of actually developing in house? Because there is this perception that the legacy OEMs are very dependent on Suppliers and cobbling together a lot of software and firmware and systems there. Is that something that's changing?
And then for Paul or maybe Dan, Dan Ammann, you put out some very bold numbers for what Cruise is going to become. I think one of the charts showed Like 100,000 vehicles by 2026,000,000,000 and 20,000,000,000 of revenue. Can you just talk a little bit about how you expect to finance this? Presumably, this is core to GM because it's consolidated, but maybe you can just elaborate a little bit about how that's going to evolve?
Go ahead, Scott.
Scott Miller, your first question is on resources I'd say there's 3 different levels of that. One of the keys to the success is the abstraction from our Current, we call it the mechatronics layer. It's our computers in the car right now. And that's being distributed through all of our software research Currently working on the vehicle, so in the area of 500 type of software resources for that. To build the platform itself and to maintain it, we probably have another 500 resources for that.
And then the cloud Support is in the neighborhood of 1,000. What is going to be interesting is how we scale Up to do all of the services in the app based resources for that. We expect that we will convert roughly, You want to guess 60% to 70% of our software resources are working on reintegration with our current system year to year. When we create this platform, it's going to stabilize our platform and allow that same that flipped reserves, 60% to 70% of our resources to focus on new value. So that's how we're looking at the resource picture for this.
So building the platform, 1500 to 2000. Once we get running and creating value or really get it all ramped up, I think we're going to shift most of our resources to this And be working on new value. So hopefully that answers.
Scott? Dan, you want to grab that other one? Yes, sure.
So Rod, good to see you. The question on how we're going to finance the fleet expansion at Cruise. One of the benefits of having friends in high places like Mr. Jacobson And Dan Burse at GMF is that we can access the GM balance sheet to help us with that. We actually announced Probably a couple of months ago now, a $5,000,000,000 credit line with GMF to enable the scaling up of the initial fleet.
And so that's something we can obviously look to expand. I do think a securitization market will evolve around this asset class as it proves itself out. So we have a really good Way to get going, the $5,000,000,000 sort of enabler to get the flywheel running on that, and then we would see this becoming something that can be really efficiently Financed as we go forward. So what we won't be doing is financing these vehicles using equity off of the Cruise balance sheet.
Rod, I would just add too to build on what Scott said, because Scott gave you the very specific for the Ultifi VIP Ultifi. We've recently just looked across the organization and roughly, globally, our salaried workforce, about 25% are software Research and Software Engineers working across many different areas of the company.
John?
It's Zach John Murphy from Bank of America. Also thanks for all the information today. I guess the first question is, when you think about that Expansion of revenue from $140,000,000,000 to I think Paul you were saying $275,000,000 to $315,000,000 by 2,030 as a potential. I mean, a lot of that seems like it's going to have to come from beyond the initial consumer, right, through services and connection And everything else you're working on. I'm just curious as you think about the life, you talk about the life of the vehicle, but in a life of vehicle, there's 4 to 5 owners.
You don't traditionally play that much beyond the first owner. So how are you going to run that connection to the second, third and maybe 4th or 5th owner Over time to capture that revenue stream downstream because that's what we're hearing from a lot of startups and that's kind of the angle they're taking.
Okay. Alan, you want to grab that?
Sure.
We studied that with the initial consumer research that we've been doing around the share of wallet and what Consumers are what people will pay on an ongoing basis. And actually, we took pretty conservative estimates around cancellation rates and people trying things and buying things. But The numbers that we came up with that I shared earlier around that 135 is a combination of products, parts and products and service that people will buy over time With a combination of subscriptions. And we looked at that, over the lifetime ownership of that vehicle Per customer and we foresee that to be extended beyond the initial owner.
Okay. And one other question, A lot of what you're saying here or some of what you're saying, not a lot, I mean, a lot of it is very unique. But we're hearing from a lot of different startups, particularly the EV automakers And they're taking different strategies and tax on manufacturing, the consumer experience. I'm just curious, Mary, as you look at sort of the competitive landscape potentially shifting With these companies being given tens of 1,000,000 of dollars, start up and are not worried about margins or return on invested capital. If you think any of them are actually doing anything that's good that you should replicate or there's anything that you're concerned about from a competitive landscape other than the fact that they have Almost no cost of capital, which is competitive advantage.
Is there anything that they're actually doing as far as running their business that you would want to replicate or concerned about Or how do you think about them?
Well, John, we look at every single person entering this space, and we look at them very seriously because good ideas can come from anywhere. Most, especially in the manufacturing space, in the direct to consumer, we've studied. And with what the capability that Gerald talked about that we have in manufacturing. We know how to do kind of the what some of them are doing, it's a very small factory, but it really It depends on the quantity you were doing. And we know the sweet spots for if you're doing a couple of 100,000, if you're doing 50,000 or if you're doing 10,000.
And we have different manufacturing Systems that scale that to modify the investment and actually the speed of how we start up. And I would say the other area, I really do believe that the work that we've done with our dealers and looking at what dealers want to be online whether they still want to have partially done in the dealership or have a more traditional experience. So we're going to serve the customer the way the customer wants to be served. But we've really gone in and looked at the tools and the processes that we're going to use. That's why the digital retail platform that you're going to get to see demoed tomorrow is So important because I really think it's going to lead to a world class customer experience.
So again, we look at every single competitor coming into our space. We don't take We think of all of them as a threat or as where an idea can come from. And As they do, we look and we adapt our strategy if we think it makes sense.
Upfront, Emmanuel.
Thank you very much. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. Great event. So thanks again. First question, very encouraging to see your margin targets for the core autos business being higher where they are now.
By 2,030, how would you think about it in the intermediary periods? What is the time line for EV profitability to reach parity with ICE? And then more generally, as it relates to what it does for earnings, Do you think earnings growth from here towards your target or are there years where the investments or the return profile may actually squeeze the overall company?
Yes. Thanks, Emmanuel, for that, and thanks for being here. And it goes for everybody as well. This is probably, I think, one of the seminal Questions that we face as a company that's transforming that the startups maybe don't from that standpoint. We understand the importance of it.
And I think what you Saw today or hopefully what you take away is the degree of focus on the pace of transformation across EV adoption, Right, because we have the inherent flexibility with the brand and the customer loyalty to adapt to that. So we've got plants that are capable of producing both. We've got Shorter conversion times that we can ramp up fast if we see that. And I think that flexibility is really key to maintaining and expanding that margin profile. So we don't see the dip trajectory that I think many people are fearing.
You're seeing that with some of the investments in the new trucks that are coming out That we've seen that are ICE vehicles, they are more efficient, but they're also what our customers are demanding today and what we've seen especially this year in terms of the sales And the quality of that. So I think that's going to help bridge that gap and help balance that while EVs are scaling because the real time period here is When do we get to the point where we're making EVs in mass quantities, even if it's cellular manufacturing the way that Gerald talked about? With the scalability in the Altium platform, we see that trajectory emerging as we get closer to the middle part of the decade over that time frame. And at the same time, We're also seeing ICE vehicles get a little bit more expensive as regulatory environments start to push towards more EV adoption. So It's important that we strike that balance, but I think that balance is also a unique competitive advantage that we have Because of our ability to flex within it.
And that's what you're going to see us managing as we get to that point by the middle part of the decade, in that sort of 5 ish to 10 years Time frame where we see EV parity hitting.
And then second question, Your goals are for $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 opportunity from software enabled services by the end of The decade, which is obviously a big number compared to the $2,000,000,000 that you disclosed today you're generating. Can you maybe share with us what sort of attach rates or average subscription payments you sort of Assumed in this and why you view this as the right base to look at?
Yes. So we've done extensive testing On this and customer surveys that are informing these. And Alan's been on top of all of that process as we look at it, Both historically is with the new data that we've got.
Yes. And I'd say the attach rates that we use were pretty conservative based on what we experienced today with So when I talked about the $80,000,000,000 serviceable addressable market and the $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 relative to that, it's similar to what we experienced today. We do fundamentally believe that there is much more potential because there's a paradigm shift obviously happening. We're not the only ones Who will have a subscription services business both within our industry and beyond. And we think the tolerance or the The attraction for our consumers and people with their willingness and desire to spend ongoing is there.
And one other thing I should say that we looked at with the study And it kind of gets to that last question that was asked as well is we looked at what people will buy one time, what people will buy on a monthly basis, what they will buy quarterly, what they will Annually, first time buyers versus latter time buyers. So we've studied all of that over the lifetime of the vehicle. But The basis for the attachment rate is similar to what we experienced with just our one product today.
And I think, Alan, just one other point on that Because this is the point that I was the most excited about is in the middle of those surveys, customers were stacking features on top of each other and they saw the Cumulative effect. It wasn't just, yes, I like that feature. No, I don't like this. It's I like this and I like this and I like this, Giving us the data to really go in and drive what we think customers are willing to spend because the marginal feature After you spent a good bit of money may not be as powerful as the first one, right? So that's what we need to make sure and We need to make sure that we've got the features that people are willing to pay and that they see the cumulative additive value proposition as they're going through that process.
And beyond the other thing I would just add is beyond the relationship with us. So we also ask people what they spend on subscription services for streaming And other things that they do in their lives. So we looked at it in the context to make sure we really understood And what consumers are they're getting themselves into over time in the context beyond their relationship with us and beyond their vehicles.
There are
a question in the back.
Yes. Jordan Heimowitz, Philadelphia Financial. Can you talk about the role of the dealer as you move towards an EV world Will all the sales continue to be through the dealer body? Or might there be separate GM brands created just for EVs as would Tesla to sell directly through those?
I think we talked a little bit about the digital retail model here today, which is very powerful. And so what you see in the Cadillac space, for instance, as we introduce EVs is there will be a different way available for people to buy different vehicles. And we call it buy my way. So there's still a section of the population that likes to go and test drive cars and see them on lots perhaps. But as things as COVID and the pandemic has taught us, we can sell right into the plant pipeline.
We can also Centralized, different combinations like we're doing when we introduced the HUMMER EV. So, there's you won't be able to go into a GMC Hummer store necessarily and see inventory of Hummers. You'll be able to order a Hummer and you may deliver it At a GMC dealer or at your home, but the dealer will help us deliver it to your home and the dealer will help us deliver it to the dealer if that's where you're going to do it. But the dealer and the piece of that that's involved is a competitive advantage for us frankly from a service standpoint. So and they do a good job in many of the ways people want It's not just all online.
I don't see us exclusively inventing a brand to go online. We just don't have the need for that. And we want to use that competitive advantage. And we want the dealer to change and have the flexibility and the agility to do anything The customer basically wants to do in buying a vehicle. So hopefully that makes sense.
Itay. Raise your hand, Itay. They can get a mic to you.
I'll move this way. Itay Michele from Citi. Thanks for the Two questions on AV. I think Dan in his presentation mentioned crews looking to go into retail sales for level 4 In 5 or 6 years, I'm curious if that is part of the Ultra Cruise program or separate program beyond Ultra Cruise? And if so, how does that factor into your financial targets in 2,030 and beyond.
And second, I think it was in Pam's presentation, she mentioned that you'll be offering Insurance discounts for take rates for ADAS systems, I'm curious if you have anything to share around numbers for what those Savings could be either with Super Cruise or Ultra Cruise in the future from an insurance perspective.
So Doug, do you want to kind of just take the Ultra Cruise PAB question.
Sure.
So as I talked about, Ultra Cruise is going to be a very capable It will require a driver to supervise it, and that's going to be out in a couple of years. So we think that's really going to catch Hold with our customers, you'll love driving your vehicle, etcetera. As Dan mentioned, the fully level 4 capable product Our focus would be that would come from Cruise. So we would integrate that into a GM vehicle and create a retail Personal autonomous vehicle. And we're going to do both.
We think that some customers will want Super Cruise, which will be almost Maybe standard by then. Everyone can get Super Cruise. So we're going to kind of play this out. Ultra Cruise would be a much more Up capable feature that you would add. And if you want to go full autonomous, then that's yet another one with the cruise technology.
So that's why Dan and I and Kyle and the team are working very closely, integrating as we're developing Ultra Cruise and Cruises on their focus. We're trying not to take them off their focus, but we're looking at integrating technologies where we can, where we can work together on things, where we can put GM's and Cruise's scale and leverage to do all of that. So then as we go forward, we'll have those options to go to retail with. And I'm not sure we have those projections in the 2030 numbers, Paul. I think that's just capability that we have.
So hopefully that answered the first question.
Yes, that's upside.
Yes. Thank you.
Ittai, thanks for the question. So you picked up very well on some of the ways that we think we can I'll work with consumers to get them a very fair price for their driving behaviors and for the Features and things that we know can make them even an even better driver. While I would love to share with you, what we found what I can tell you is, We already have validated insights that say that our data, it gives us very powerful Pricing capabilities or you could say risk assessment capabilities. So we had big expectations. It's exceeded our expectations, And we're just getting started.
And as we go deeper into contextual insights, we only see That ability to really understand risk growing even better. So I look forward to being able to tell you a pretty awesome story here as things unfold. Thanks.
Joe?
Thank you. It's Joe Spak from RBC Capital Markets. You talked a little bit about how you're thinking about the Impact from the transition from ICE to bev. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking along this plan pricing of bev relative to other Bev competition, because you talked about building a truck from the ground up, you talked about the scale that Altium brings. The implication is that you have a lower cost.
So do you plant your flag, grab some share? Or do you let that Sort of cost advantage sort of flow through to the margin?
It depends on the current segment and that would be a big reveal of our pricing strategy, which Not totally prepared to do here, but look, we're going to be aggressive, okay? And we have a lot of, I think voice of the customer on what people think around that. But at the core of adoption, depending on the segment and high volume, It's got to be a huge value, and it's got to be a creative value of design. Everything I went through today, that's value. And along with that goes range and price and warranty and all those things.
And we have to make a compelling Value for our customer. And we'll do that in every segment and every slot that we go in. The Lyric is under $60,000 you could argue. And you drive that against a Model Y or whatever. And we've got a vehicle here that is absolutely gorgeous.
We know that. It's the highest clinic in car we've ever done. It's Filled with technology including Super Cruise and the Ultium platform. It's got over 300 miles of range. I could go on and on.
That's a great value, and we're going to make money at it. So that's what we have to do. We have to do whatever segment we're in, including the Blazer and the Equinox over here, especially Those vehicles because a lot of those vehicles tend to be primary vehicles for families, and they use it in all different ways. And so that's the aim and the goal.
We will be aggressive. Yes.
Can I add one thing to that too, Mark? I mean because I want to challenge the thinking Around the question too, right? Because historically, that is the question because that was the value point at which we recognized our profitability and that Once it was gone, it was gone, right? But keep in mind, with the cost and the scale advantage that we have, the feature and the breadth of the vehicles, There's also a race here to get vehicles on the road because in a way that's where revenue streams begin, right? And that's a very transformative way of thinking about it.
So yes, the vehicles need to make their margin targets from that standpoint. But also the capabilities and the reinvestment as both Mary And Mark articulated, puts more vehicles on the road, which increases the revenue opportunities that we've talked about. So in a lot of ways, the model is very much changing from the way we thought about it before.
And then just on a from a manufacturing perspective, I thought that conversation is really interesting about Flexibility you have and how you even plan for a very wide range of outcomes, including very aggressive bev penetrations. If that does come to pass, Does that mean that there's a potential for some currently planned next gen ICE programs to be shelled and you move Faster to accommodate the EV demand?
I think it depends on which segment you're talking about and which brand. Cadillac is probably the most aggressive and because we really went to town on Making Cadillac something different than what it has been for the last 10 years or 20 years, however you want to look at it, but Very much the standard of the world again. And I think you see a couple of products here that lend itself to that. So I would say, we have flexibility on some of the iconic Products within Cadillac in terms of Escalade and things like that. But there's white space, where we haven't filled in the Cadillac portfolio before, Where we're going to go all EV and we're going to do that and truncate it.
But there's some adoption risk on some of the higher volume and higher Capacitized plants that we are flexible with. And so we'll use that flexibility to our advantage. And those won't both we have the ability to truncate those From an ICE to EV, but we don't have to. And so we were very flexible there. And Gerald's team has done a wonderful job.
The portfolio is laid out in that manner, to be able to take advantage of that flexibility.
Ryan?
Hi, Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan. Thanks for taking my question. Is there an update you can provide on the semiconductor shortage Firstly, how do you see the supply of chips tracking for the industry as a whole in the Q4 and beyond relative to the tight supply We saw in the second and third quarters. Secondly, how do you feel about your own ability to secure chips relative to the industry? Is it better?
Is it worse? And then thirdly, obviously, you're investing very heavily to in source battery cell capacity with LG. You talked about working to secure rare earth capacity. Would it ever make sense if you thought that the shorter situation were to prove longer lasting to invest to either in source or somehow otherwise secure Supply of chips. Thanks.
So from a long I'll answer the end of that question first. From a long term perspective, we are looking at a wide range of options To ensure we have the chips we need, also with the work that Scott's team is doing, there's a lot of work going on internally in Some partnership with Jeff Manufacturers for a little bit longer down the road. So we'll have more to say about that, because we think we're we've got some very innovative plans that we're doing. But we will work to have certainty around the supply we need to support the growth that we are targeting and aggressively going after. In the near term, I would say for Q3 for us, because COVID hit Southeast Asia so hard and specifically some of our chip Facilities, that was somewhat unexpected, as Paul talked about a little bit earlier in the quarter.
I'm really proud of our team though because we went in and worked with those Chip suppliers actually brought our safety protocols to their factories, so they could get up and running and do it in a safe for their employees and frankly the governments have worked together to support that. So I'm really proud of what the team did when Delta unexpectedly We hit some plants that we thought were past the constraint process. And so we're through that now. We see An improving situation in Q4, and then we see an improving situation as we get into next year. But there will be a tail to this As we go forward, and it's hard to say, I mean, there's so many people.
I've read so many articles that people talk with so much Certainty of exactly why what's happening with chips. And I bet you if you stood all of the CEOs of automotive companies In a row, they'd say, we wish we knew with that much certainty what everybody thinks is happening. It is a for the entire year, we have a team that's working around the clock. We pretty much all of the people in this room, we're on a weekly call making decisions because and I tell you there hasn't been a week where there hasn't been a surprise. Sometimes they're good surprises, sometimes they're not so good.
But what I'm really proud of and where I think we do have an advantage is our team, our engineering, manufacturing, Supply Chain and Sales and Marketing team, they work together every day to say, okay, if these are the chips we have, how do we properly allocate them To maximize either high demand or capacity constrained vehicles to optimize what General Motors can do to support our So I couldn't be more proud of our team. I think it's a competitive advantage. We're working to obviously improve our supply. And there's things we can do from a self help perspective and believe me we are. We don't go into great detail about it because frankly it's a tough situation out there and it's pretty competitive.
It's very helpful. Thanks. And then just lastly from me. Paul, you mentioned returning capital to shareholders. Just curious what the latest thoughts are.
I understand a Board decision, but relative to potentially reinstating the dividend, if you're thinking about that maybe any differently in the context of all the Great many no growth investment opportunities that you highlighted here today. Thank you.
Well, I think as we articulated earlier this year, we're waiting for Some stabilization across this chip situation and where we are. I think the number one objective that we started back in January When we first articulated this is we're going to lean into the transformation and we're going to fund this journey no matter what kind of volatility that we've seen. That's Clearly, the number one priority from this standpoint. But as we get into more stability, as Mary articulated, we'll have more information about how we're thinking about the dividend As part of that prioritization of returning capital to shareholders.
Colin?
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Colin Lang in Wells Fargo. Your target of 12% to 14% margins by 2,030, I guess I have trouble adding it up a bit. I mean, if your auto margins are around 10% and then you're talking about a $20,000,000,000 to $25,000,000,000 SaaS opportunity at over 70% margin.
I actually think it adds up to something over that $12,000,000,000 to $14,000,000 So are there other offsets? Or Am I thinking about it incorrectly?
Well, we're really managing this as part of this transformation across the board, right? So you've got Different take rates on EV as we get adoption going forward and as we see its subscription rates attach From that standpoint, so as we're building these businesses and incubating them, the 12% to 14% is our best view as to how we're thinking about where we can go over that journey. I think the one thing that's important to take away from these numbers is this is an evolution from this mindset. What you heard from the team is where we can see today The opportunity is accruing. And we're going to continue to update this along this journey.
And to the extent that we see more opportunities, we're not Going to stop because we hit 14% margins and say that was the top end of the range. That's just the visibility and kind of where we see things heading today.
And my second question, talking about EV cost priority, raw materials and batteries have really gone through the roof year to date. I mean, I guess, two thoughts here. Do you have secured long term supply chain to kind of mitigate some of that raw material spike? And any thoughts on I think some companies are talking about changing chemistries like LFP, that might be at a lower cost? And is that possible with the facilities you have?
Yes. You want
to take that, Ken?
Sure. So yes, I mean, one of the keys that kind of we bring to bear as a company is the As Gerald talked about manufacturing, the supply chain and the protection of supply chain, where it's going to come from, that's something our purchasing organization Has enormous strength then. And so
that's so a lot
of confidence there. As far as We look at all sorts of different combinations of electrochemistry, and we're not sure From a range standpoint, the customers in the U. S. Specifically would really be willing to look at a below a 300 mile range. We see it other places in the world where people do.
So we'll always keep an eye on it, and we'll always, really take the temperature of consumers to see As people really get used to EVs, will they recognize maybe for further usage 250 is okay? And that's where LFP type chemistries can come in. But we have done enough research in the U. S, we think right now it's going to have to be 300 miles minimum.
Matt.
Matt Portillo with Tudor Pickering. Maybe just starting out on Cruise, there's
an
inherent amount of significant value there for shareholders in the stock today. And I think the biggest question that we get most often is The path towards commercialization in the competitive environment. And I was hoping that you might be able to comment a bit more on the path to commercialization, Specifically, why there may be some limitations to the L2 systems in the market today? It looks like you clearly have a lead On the L4 side. And then I guess around the manufacturing and then the regulatory process, what will we need to see from here for because it really looks
So On the commercialization side, as I mentioned in my comments, from a regulatory point of view, We are very close, sort of one permit away from being in a position to charge for rides in San Francisco, and we would expect that to unfold for us In a matter of months here. And then the question is, obviously, the scaling. And I went through starting Sort of in ones and tens and then hundreds and then thousands of vehicles and ramping up the fleet like that. So just to recap that again, between now and the end of next year, we see ourselves in this sort of early commercialization phase where we're using our Bolt AV based fleet, demonstrating product market fit, having a product that people can actually Push a button, get a ride and use, but things start to really get interesting when the origin begins production in early 2023. So in that 1st year, we'll be building measured in 1,000.
In 2024, we'll be thinking about things measured in tens of 1,000, and it can ramp up pretty To 100 of 1000 from there. So as you think about the business model or the financial model around that, a very conservative number to use for revenue For a vehicle per year is like $100,000 and we think there's probably quite a bit of upside relative to that. And so You can do the math on Origins on the Road, as the fleet grows, what that revenue potential is. I took you through the cost advantage that we have Relative to obviously, relative to rideshare today, it's a huge advantage. But even relative to the approach that other AV players are taking With a retrofitted fleet, for example, or a very high cost purpose built vehicle, we think the Origin gives us a 60% to 70% cost per mile advantage Relative to those and the ability to scale that up.
And so it is really the situation where we're bringing a better product at a lower cost into a really big market. And so the internal thought process we have at Cruise around that is what are the what's the Pareto of things that can block us From scaling? Like what's the thing that stops us from just growing this vertically if that's how big the opportunity is? And that's why we've been thinking about this and approaching it on an Exponential basis. Relative to the L2s, again, as I mentioned, the there are different ways to get to this long term Goal or even medium term goal of generalized low cost full autonomy.
I think that's the thing that we're all shooting for. And you can take a path that we've taken of Figuring out how to actually solve that from a performance point of view to get the human out of the loop and then work on bringing the cost down Or you can start with a low cost system that's much less capable and make a bet that you're going to be able to close an order of magnitude's performance cap. And so we believe that our approach of actually taking this all the way to human out of the loop in a complex environment first And then working on cost and increasing and opening up the ODD and things like that is the path that will get us to that generalized low cost place, first of all.
And then just as a quick follow-up on the global market. You have a massive amount of scale in China specifically. Just curious how a lot of these strategies around AV shifts in software and subscription services might play out in that market as well?
If you look at the relationship between the two countries from a government perspective, especially as you look at technologies that need a lot of data, I think it's more and more intending that you're going to need a China based solution for China. That's why we just recently announced our partnership with Momenta in China. So again, working on it from that perspective. And similarly on the software and services, there's been a tremendous amount of work already done. And a lot of it conceptually will model what we do, but it might be different providers Or a different implementation just due to the laws in China, especially around private data, mapping information, etcetera, which is different than it is here.
We have the team looking at it closely, sharing lessons when we can, sharing the actual technology when we can, but obviously staying attuned to what's happening between the laws
Okay. Thank you for your questions. This concludes the webcast. Thank you for joining us. You will see portions of today's presentation posted to our IR website shortly.
In addition, we will post subject matter