Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQ: GPRE · Real-Time Price · USD
16.82
+0.36 (2.19%)
At close: Apr 28, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
17.12
+0.30 (1.78%)
Pre-market: Apr 29, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT
← View all transcripts

Jefferies 2023 Industrials Conference

Sep 7, 2023

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

It's my pleasure to introduce Todd Becker, President and CEO of Green Plains. I guess maybe before I get started, if you just wanna maybe sort of set the stage, in terms of, you know, where Green Plains is at, and then we'll dive in.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah, thanks, and thanks for having us another year back at Jefferies Conference. We appreciate, as always, being included. So we're in the middle of our transformation, and we're making great progress towards our goals in 2024 and 2025 that we've laid out several years ago on putting new technology around our asset base to increase our availability of high-quality ingredients, really built on 4 pillars of protein, oil, sugar, and decarbonization. The protein, we're in the middle of our build schedule. We still have several projects still to build. We're waiting for permits, but we put five projects up with 1 under construction. Then we bought a technology company really to liberate and create value out of the products that we grind every day.

On the oil side, the phenomenon around renewable diesel and what's happening there on renewable oils and low-carbon—we have a low-carbon feedstock that we try to continue to liberate more oil out of the kernel as well. Our clean sugar business is just kicking off. We are in the middle of our first build. Should be mechanically complete by the end of the year, as outlined, and going into the first quarter for startup, and we have a lot of interest in that product. And then decarbonization, which is a bit of a 25 story, but you know, there's some really good things happening around there as well, and then some other ancillary things that we're doing, and then the fundamental backdrop of our base business as well is solid as well.

So, I mean, we're, we're enthusiastic about the end of the year and, and how we're gonna finish up and going into 2024 and really start to show some of the results of what we've been planning for several years. So we appreciate that.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

So maybe let's start with the ramp in Ultra-High Protein. Can you give an update on what, you know, the, the amount of capacity you've converted and where you're at in terms of shipping product, I mean, in terms of, like, the tonnage? How are you thinking about the ramp in tonnage over the, say, the next three years?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah. So we've converted five of our own plants, about 560 million gallons converted already, and we have 180 million gallons under construction with our partnership with Novozymes, or with Tharaldson, which we have a 50/50 joint venture in. We're waiting for permitting in Illinois to come through, so we can get another project built there. Fairmont permitting, we have a couple different projects around there that we're finalizing our idea on that, so we can get that project off and running and try to get that built.

And then we had two of our smaller plants in Superior and in Fergus Falls, where what we're trying to do is come up with maybe an MSC light-type operation, 'cause from a standpoint of an investment in a smaller plant with the size of the technology that has to be put there, you know, it's much better to put a larger plant. But the guys at Fluid Quip are starting to think about what did we learn on the first 5 installations, and what are we gonna do on the next five installations, and what can we save from a capital perspective? What can we save from an operating perspective? What have we learned that we can do better the next time around in terms of yield and equipment and capacity?

We think there's some MSC light opportunities in terms of the smaller plants, but also to really drive costs out of our next several builds to get more capital efficient on those as well. But even more so than that, what we're really excited about is what we've learned in these first five installations. And thinking that we were gonna get 3 pounds per bushel or 3.5 pounds per bushel, in Wood River, as they came out of their shutdown, we've been achieving as high as five pounds per bushel and 4.5 pounds pretty steadily, which now we can take those learnings and apply them to other areas.

So it's been a bit of a journey and a bit of a process, but what we're seeing and how we're thinking about even rolling with our learnings at one plant to the next plant, to the next plant, we're really optimistic about where we're at in terms of product and product sales. You know, when we built these plants to start, we had kind of a customer. We didn't know where this product was gonna go, and we built a lot of inventory thinking to get ready to prime the market on 50% protein. Well, that worked really well because we actually had it to sell when the market opened up for it, and now every day we sell our product, and we have very little inventory sitting around. Everything that we produce, we get sold.

The fundamentals have improved on corn relative to soybean meal, so that has helped a little bit as we kinda think about kinda going forward with the rest of this year and into next year in terms of acres shifting around in the corn, advantaging our inputs versus our outputs. And so, you know, it's those type of things that we've learned that now we get to apply to everything else that we do from now on. So when we think about moving into 60% protein, or we think about how are we gonna roll out sugar, or what are we gonna do with other products, we learned a lot when you roll out a new technology and you roll it out in quantity, and how to prime a market and how to think about a market.

And so, you know, but otherwise, I mean, the product's well-accepted. We continue to talk to new customers around the world. We continue to ship product into new markets and new species, and no, we're excited about the future.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

In the past, when you've talked about the profitability, you've often used you know, the metaphor of the J Curve and getting to a certain profit contribution based on the concentration. But you've also talked about changing plant design and throughput and changing the formulas, you know, adding in other ingredients or changing the crop to get a higher protein crop or, you know, the partnership with Syngenta to get a more digestible crop. So can you give a sense for when you think about that J Curve chart that you've used over the years, how where do you really think you're gonna end up on that?

If you've fully loaded all the different technology levers you've talked about, where should we be thinking you end up in four or five years?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah, I mean, we think the J Curve opportunity still exists. So when we outlined the J Curve, we outlined a bunch of different protein levels, and so where were we gonna settle in? We knew when we were gonna build these systems, 50 pro is really nice, 50% protein is really nice, but 60% protein is our capability. So we knew we were gonna end up up on the J Curve further, but first thing we have to do is get really good at making the first product, and then thinking about the time that it takes to get into these higher value products. So, for example, now we're starting to think about moving up the J Curve into that 60% protein market. And so we laid out a 3-5-year timeline to do that.

We had good success early on to actually make 60 pro. We learned a lot, and so today, in Wood River, for example, they're running a full commercial 60 pro runs at this point, production runs. And just because we do have small sales on for Q4, but we also know we have to make products so we can prime the market. We're thinking about our goals in 2024 and how we learned about getting product to market in 50% protein, we're going to apply to 60% protein, which means make a little extra 60 pro, get ready to sell it, get ready to ship it. But we are shipping some 60 pro commercially in Q4 and trying to put on some more sales and really getting ourselves ready for 2024.

Now, when we think about that J Curve, you know, what we laid out was 50, 52, 54, 58, 60, 70, almost like literally to fish meal.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

And so, well, first step is going to be, let's get to 60 pro. Let's think about our corn gluten meal analog, which trades at a spread to soybean meal. Let's get into that market next, but then let's think about, now, how do we achieve greater than those type of values? And moving up the J Curve, that'll come through our partnership with Novozymes, which is stronger than ever. Those, you know, those type of things that we're working together on to think about new products. What can we do in fermentation? What can we do with some of the stuff that we've been working on and changing what this product does? You know, adding in certain peptides or something like that, what we've been working-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... on for several years as well. So there's so much more to do there, but our first step, next step up, is to hit the 60 pro market. A bit of a corn gluten meal analog, maybe getting into a little bit higher than that, relative to that. It's a pretty wide spread today between corn gluten meal and fish meal, just because of what's happening down in South America. So we think we're in a really good place. We're in a lot of conversations for 2024 and even 2025 right now for 60% protein inclusion rates, and we'll see what we can hopefully get done. It just takes a long time. This is while the commercial groups like to buy the product, that's the first step.

Then you've got to get through regulatory, you've got to get through nutrition, you've got to get through advertising, promotion, packaging in a lot of these companies, if you want to go into pet food, and we're making good progress in aquaculture as well. So we're really excited, but we think next year will be a step to a bigger 60% protein program. That's really where these, these assets start to really return in terms of IRRs and, and return on invested capital. And so, no, we're excited about it, but we are making our progress, and we're just starting our way up this J Curve.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

And then given the kind of accounting lags, the drop through to our EBITDA is probably more back half of 2024 and 2025. Is that-

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Well, no, I mean, I think right now, where we're at and with our plants running well again, I mean, they're... You know, we had a little bit of tough time in the second quarter with our plants, that we've kind of gotten through some of those tough times. The plants are running, running pretty well. We continue to have a few little problem children, but nothing that's dramatic. So we're starting to see really good contribution from protein in, in-- or good contribution from protein in Q3. We think our, we'll have probably our best quarter of contribution in Q4, where we can start to really talk to the market about what the contribution is.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Because that's really been a question, is, "When are you going to show us?" And we think kind of this end of Q3, Q4 is really where we start to see our plants running well. We're producing on average, somewhere around 800 tons a day. We think we could get that to 1,000 tons a day, potentially through yield and through some higher run rates. You know, at ± any day, but I think that's really will be kind of the end of the. As we get into the third and into the fourth, we can really start to talk to the market about real contribution from these sales. We'll get some 60 pro shipped in the fourth quarter.

I think you'll start to see that drop down, especially in 2024, as we think about the full year 2024 with Tharaldson JV coming online. We should have pretty good, or a really good look into what those contributions will be from protein.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Okay. So the Clean Sugar platform, you now have a line of sight to starting to ramp up production. Can you talk a little bit about... At one point, we had talked about, sort of the plan being to wait until you had a co-located industrial biotech partner or somebody who really wanted, like, a dirtier sugar but could then commercialize it into some downstream product. What's your current thinking on how you're going to commercialize the Clean Sugar?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah, so we're finishing our Clean Sugar build this year for mechanically complete by the end of the year is our goal, and we're on track at this point to hit that. Start up some in Q1, and hopefully, it's not a frozen January, but we think we should be able to start up some early in Q1 and kind of ramp from there. We've been in significant discussions for several years, not just with co-location partners, but really with our industry, from food through industrial. And so we're going to start first with industrial sales, shipping out of that plant in Shenandoah. It'll be able to make somewhere between kind of 200 or 250 million pounds of dextrose.

And then from there, we have to really think about how fast can we ramp and expand it to 500 million pounds, because the demand is there for the product and is there for the product to be shipped. You don't, you do not have to have a co-location partner-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Just to sell dextrose. In fact, most of dextrose gets shipped somewhere on the planet. It doesn't all get just over the fence. That would be great, but that's not. That's kind of a down the road build. Somebody's going to say: hey, let's. But we could build to suit.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

What's very interesting about Green Plains, when we talk to industrial co-location partners, we will build to suit. So what-- Here's our 10 sites. Where do you want it? We can build it there. And then what's important at that site? Does it have rail access, river access? You know, what's the power? Is it wind? Is it solar? Is it nuclear? Whatever it's going to be, like, how do we think about the CI scores? Is it on a pipeline? Isn't it on a pipeline? So co-location is going to be a really great thing, but right now, the sugar we produce, there's enough demand that we'll be able to ship all that sugar, mostly via rail.

It's going to end up in everything from, to start, industrial uses, but by the end to middle of next year, when we're shipping it and we get food safe, food certified, which we have already done that in New York, then we'll start to hit beverage markets, candy markets, food markets, pancake syrups. They all use this type of dextrose, 95 DE and 43 DE. We can make that product, and we're excited about—we're really excited to get into it. We think by the time we start up in January, we'll have sales on the books, we'll have customers booking our product. We're in discussions with many, many customers from all of the different aspects of demand, and to bring 200 million pounds of sugar to market will not be disruptive.

To bring 500 million pounds of sugar to the market will not be disruptive to what's going on out there. There's just enough new demand out there. Second question we get asked a lot is: do you have low CI sugar? Yes, we do. We have low CI dextrose. We continue to get validation of that. And so because they're getting questions, "I need a low CI chemical process made out of dextrose," that they're doing today with dextrose anyway. So-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Between those couple of things, then, I think we're at its advantage Green Plains from a, from a dextrose standpoint.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

As you're approaching mechanical completion, have you seen anything to suggest that the initial conversion economics of 30%-40% cost advantage is on track, or is it a ... You know, how do you think about what the arbitrage is going to look like?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

I think when Fluid Quip was rolling this out pre our acquisition, the bragging was, "We can make it a lot cheaper," right?

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Yep.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

That means people expected to buy a lot cheaper. Our goal at Green Plains is we wanna sell it at the market.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

So we are not out there talking about, "Oh, we make it this much cheaper, and we can sell it this much cheaper." So, do we have a cost advantage? Yes, we have a cost advantage. Is it, is it something we're gonna pass on? We want to sell our dextrose at the market. We wanna be competitive with what comes out of a wet mill, but other than that, we actually think we have an advantage from a low CI perspective before we even decarbonize the platform. So from our standpoint, we feel like when you take a look at the base, equivalent ethanol margin structure that we laid out when we first did this investment, we said we think the base historically was around $0.65 a gallon equivalent ethanol margin, all in. We're actually seeing better numbers than that on paper today.

And when you look at sugar at, you know, $0.24-$0.26 a pound, as well as dextrose there, that those margins are significantly higher than that. But relative to the base, what we laid out, we're still on track and very good with those numbers. And so, no, I don't think we have to do anything on price relative to anything other than market. And then from there, I think the margin structure is very strong.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

And then on carbon sequestration, can you give an update on the progress with Summit? And also, you're thinking about doing carbon sequestration at the sites that Summit is not gonna be attached to.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah. So right now, we have five sites on Summit, and we're excited about what their progress they've made. You know, they continue to get right of way at a much higher level than some of their competitors. They have their pore space in North Dakota. They've got some permitting they've got to get done now in each of the different states. I think they've got Iowa right now. They're gonna go back into North Dakota, and they have 30 days to go back again, or 30 or 40 days, for a little bit of rerouting. And our- we're highly confident that that Summit gets built and, and, you know, and especially with the amount of right of way that they have at this point.

You know, listen, you hear a lot of things in the press, and even getting turned down in North Dakota, for us, that wasn't really stressful because, you know, when you look at that, it's really just they get to go back in 30 or 40 days. And it was really about, "Hey, reroute it a little bit here. Listen to us," and we think they're gonna on a path to a potential approval there. They've got good support from the governor. So our view is for the five plants that we have on Summit, you know, we're highly probable that that'll get built and the other 3 plants in Nebraska. You know, that's not. That's on a different project, and that, for the most part, that project's already built.

So I think what we want people to understand about Green Plains is when you look at Nebraska and, and you look at could be advantaged, at least in early 2025, be shipping already on a carbon pipeline and getting that type of, that type of credit, the 45Z, just for our Nebraska plants, if we're operating in 2025, is $100-$120 million of opportunity for our shareholders. And I think that's not. I don't think that's being appreciated quite enough relative to how we're thinking about that. If that pipeline starts shipping in 2025, which we have a high expectation that it will, that's a significant uplift to anything we've been talking about in carbon. So we're really excited about that.

Almost to the point where you have to say, how do you wanna look at your Nebraska assets versus other assets? Because those are gonna... We believe those will be advantaged first, and then Summit after that, and then whatever comes after that. So we still believe we have an advantaged position in carbon. And then in our Indiana facility, we're looking at a project there as well and some partnerships to take that carbon out of Indiana and sequester it as well, and we're down the road on that. Nothing to announce just yet, except to say that we're in discussions, and we think there's some opportunities there. And then we have Illinois and Tennessee, which we have to come up with a bit of carbon solution.

You know, if you think about one carbon solution for them is to locate Clean Sugar there.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Because you don't, you're not gonna emit carbon when you make that much dextrose. So those could be two sites where potentially, if there's not a pipeline solution or a sequestration or a rail solution, which we think rail carbon actually is gonna be interesting as well down the road, maybe you build your next Clean Sugar facility there as well.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

So, I guess three things on the ethanol side. One is, you mentioned the core business is solid, and I think kind of most, you know, people have a very kind of jaded view of the core ethanol business. So can you talk a little bit about the margins outlook for the back half of the year, what you've been able to lock in? Let's start with that.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

So, we've seen margins stay strong in the last half of the year, and looks like the fundamental data would tell you that it probably will stay strong and potentially get stronger. As we go through the end of the year, we're at significantly lower in stocks than we were last year. We're producing about 1 million barrels a day. I think the market gets lulled into the fact that when ethanol produces 1.1 million barrels a day, that you can do that every day. I'd say you could probably do it 5% of the time as an industry, and after that, you just really start to reach the limitations of the capability of the industry, even though there's significantly more on paper production capability.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

But I think where we're at right now, when you kinda look at distillates, and you look at ethanol stocks and you look at driving demand, we had great driving demand last week, and you look at kind of where we're at relative in the cycle, you know, I hate to say it, but I mean, it looks pretty good. I don't hate to say it, it's one of those things where every time I say it, I get myself in trouble, but actually, ethanol looks pretty good in the kind of going forward through the end of the year. So, you know, I think we're running well. We're running better than we were in Q2. Our plants are running, you know, not without a little bit of twists and turns every day just 'cause they're getting older.

But in general, we're grinding, grinding a lot of corn. Our goal is to make 2.5 million gallons a day, 800-1,000 tons of protein a day, 900,000 pounds of oil a day, and if we could hit those targets, then we get to take advantage of this expansion in margins, and we're able to get some of that, especially in Q4 with the weaker corn basis. The United States has a very interesting opportunity, I think, for ourselves and the industry, and we'll see what happens there as well. But you still gotta get that corn basis to move. You still gotta get the farmer to come out of the combine and sell you that corn.

But on paper, you know, those are some pretty strong margins out there. So right now we're pretty much open. You know, we don't talk much about our hedging program, but at this point, we're pretty well open to take advantage of some of these opportunities.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Can you then talk, in the medium term, the trade-off between the sugar production and the ethanol production? You know, how much ethanol could you take out of the market?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah, I think there's-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Do you-

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Like three components of how you get ethanol in the market or out of the market. First, we're gonna make ethanol. We're still gonna make ethanol, so we still have to deal with that. But, you know, every time we convert into sugar, we'll make less ethanol, but we'll also make less carbon. So you have to-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... decide how do you wanna kinda play that carbon versus ethanol versus sugar market? Our view is, you still wanna make sugar, right? It's, it's durable, it's repeatable, it's non-government policy. It's got a lot of, lot of really great things about it. But what it does do... So, for example, in Shenandoah, what we're learning is you build the 200-300 million pound sugar system, maybe going to 500 million pounds, you free up the back of that plant still. So you've got unused assets again. So do you just put a little more grind in to take advantage of the fact that you can earn money from carbon again? So while we would initially take off some ethanol off the market, you may put some back on just because you'll just add some grind, because it's very capital efficient to do that.

So I don't know that net sugar is gonna take a lot of ethanol off unless we convert a full plant, and then at that point, you know, how you, how are you gonna run it? But from us, I think we get the, we get the best of both worlds, right? I mean, we get durable, repeatable margins that from grinding corn, but then we're still gonna be fermenting alcohol, so we still get biogenic carbon, which is the easiest thing to sequester. So like, when we look at Shenandoah, our first goal to go from 200-500 million pounds, we, we need to do that. I would say, rather quickly at some point here and make that decision, and then decide where you're gonna build beyond that. But I...

What we'd like to see is, beyond the 500 million pounds in Shenandoah, when we build number two or number three, you know, we want to show the market that we're shipping, it's been accepted, we're getting the value for it, it's the same product, the margin is there, and I think the market will be very favorable towards that. So we think about kind of what we've come to this point, how do we add market cap going forward? It's kind of from, like, three things. It's gonna be 60 pro commercialization. It's gonna be clean sugar, proving to the market that we have a disruptive technology that we own and control, and then and then monetizing our decarbonization program. That's, we think, is the next step up, and some of that can come rather quickly.

Obviously, any good ethanol market would be helpful-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... as well, so.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Can you unpack your partnership with Shell?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

I mean, sure. So we started talking to Shell in late 2020, early 2021. They have a technology they've invested significant capital into, called Shell Fiber Conversion Technology, and it's out there, you can Google it. And what it does is it uses a chemical process to really liberate whatever is put into the reactor. So from our standpoint, what, you know, when they approached us, they said, "Hey, we can do all of this, but what we have is, much like comes out of a bottom of fermentation vessel, we have these solids. We need separation. Well, you guys have the world-class separation technology.

What if we actually put Shell Fiber Conversion Technology together with Fluid Quip separation technology and come up with a new 50/50 joint venture, by the way, that we use our process on—their process on the front, our process on the back, and liberate the rest of the kernel?" And so in the simplest form, if you start, you could drop a kernel corn in there and, and literally blow it apart into protein, oil, and sugar, and that's all that... You get all the oil, you get all high protein, and you get cellulosic sugars. That's at the simplest form. What we're gonna do in the first form is to post-MSC, take that flow that would traditionally be a distiller's grain.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

We're gonna put that into their reactors to start to liberate the rest of the protein, the rest of the oil, and get some cellulosic sugars out of it, that will then ferment back into the Gen 1 plant and get some cellulosic credit. So, you know, this cellulosic dream that people talk about, it could be real with the Shell technology, but it's a very different... Like, we don't need feed, we don't need stover to do it. We're just using our traditional stillage to just-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... to do it. But it really just liberates all of the, everything available. And by the way, it could be feedstock agnostic. No matter what you put in there, the technology should be able to blow apart all the components of protein, oil, and sugar. We're really excited about it. It's being built. It's in Shenandoah. It's a major project. We're gonna use our technology to separate it, and the great thing about it is if and when it works, we already have five or six MSC systems built that you could literally plop one of these next to it and just take advantage of it. So that capital has been spent already from our side of the equation, and then we just determine how to split up the rest of it. But it's really exciting, and it'll be operating next year.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Like, that's what most people didn't realize, is this thing was being built. It was a little bit of a top-secret project that, you know, they wanted to keep quiet, but we needed to hire some people, so we had to tell people what we were doing. This has been under construction, and it will be operating in 2024.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

If the process works as designed, do you have a sense for how much it would improve your protein or corn oil yields?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Well, basically, you're getting all the corn oil. So if you think about a 56-pound bushel of corn, today, we liberate, in the Gen 1 process, 0.9 pounds, and we get another 0.2 or 0.3 pound uplift, and to get to 1.1 to 1.2, and-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

With the Fluker process, this will get to a full 1.6-1.7. All of it's done. When you think about high protein, right now, we get 3.5 pounds of high protein, and send 11 pounds back to make DDGS. You're basically gonna get 8 or 9 pounds of high protein, and send two or three pounds of syrup back, and then, which maybe you can anaerobically digest at that point.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

So-

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

It's all high-quality products at that point.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

And so you would get all of that on your existing capacity without... And so what would be the incremental investment?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Well, from our standpoint, we have invested in the MSC already, so depending on how we would do the investment, if and when it works, we would put one of these new systems next to an MSC plant at a Gen 1 plant. And so incremental investment, we haven't really outlined yet for anybody, but incremental revenue, if you think about it-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... just oil alone, you know, half a pound at a plant is $15 million-$20 million of incremental revenue. When you think about the incremental protein revenue, you can be talking about, instead of making, when today, a plant makes 300,000 tons of DDGs, with MSC, they make 230,000 tons of DDGs-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

... net after we get our high protein. If you think about, let's say you get 200,000 tons of that at a $200 premium, that's a $40 million incremental revenues. Now, there's costs associated. On top of that, you get some cellulosic credits for the small amount of cellulosic sugars that this machine produces as well. So net-net, it's got significant revenue uplift, and we've got to just look at what are the costs going to be associated with that. But it's very-- it's, from a standpoint of an ethanol, a traditional Gen 1 ethanol plant, it would be very accretive.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

You have the ramp to EBITDA over the next three-four years.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Mm-hmm.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

You have a potential longer-term opportunity in alcohol to jet, and you, you have a history of doing, you know, very successful asset investments and monetizations of assets. You know, so like, you know, I'm thinking, like, the terminals and the-

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Vinegar-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

The herd.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

We've got all the, yeah.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

All the adventures. So, so how do you see the business evolving? I mean, should we be thinking that it's going to become, become a sort of hit a certain EBITDA run rate, and then you're going to try and protect that EBITDA run rate, or is it going to be a, "Let's take the EBITDA and then create asset opportunities?

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Yeah, I, I mean, I think when you look at the last step-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

You have a unique opportunity set.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Well, I think the industry has a unique opportunity set as well because as we decarbonize alcohol, that is the first step to alcohol to jet. You have to have a decarbonized alcohol stream to make the product. There's four or five technologies that are out there that are interesting. They're all being in some form of commercialization at this point. It's a last half of the decade story. At Green Plains, we have our partnership with United and PNNL and Tallgrass. You know, that's being, that's being done right now. They're optimizing the catalyst. We. It doesn't take a lot of our time to do that 'cause that's all been funded and, and spent somewhere else. We don't have, we don't have that internal capability, so it doesn't take a lot of time today. That's a possibility of a technology.

There's the Axens technology, there's the Honeywell technology, there's LanzaJet. I mean, there's plenty of technologies being developed, and then there's some that will get built. So I don't think today we have to make a commitment on what we're going to do in alcohol-to-jet, except the first thing we need to do is decarbonize.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

That will increase the value of our product every single day. From there, the question is, how much of that will get diverted into jet versus transportation fuels, surface transportation fuels? And then, and then what does that do for the long-term margin and value of margin and value of these assets?

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Mm.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

Because if the jet fuel market is, quite frankly, insatiable-

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Yep

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

I mean, it could take all of what we do as an industry, and there's nothing left for, for motor cars, and that, that would be an interesting thing to happen. I think it just increases, right now, the value of the asset base totally across the industry, but also what we do at Green Plains with everything else that we're doing.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Okay, great. Well, thank you. I think we've run out of time.

Todd Becker
President and CEO, Green Plains

All right. Thank you.

Laurence Alexander
Managing Director, Equity Research, Jefferies

Very much.

Powered by