You know, thank you, everybody. Super happy to be up here with Brooks Mallard, CFO at Gates, and then Rich Kwas, VP of Investor Relations. You know, thank you both for coming to the conference. You know, maybe starting off high level, you know, can you just, you know, give an update on what you're seeing across the business lines, you know, the various end markets? You know, company's pretty diversified. And then does anything stand out from a regional perspective when you look across the business?
Yeah. I would say it's mostly what we thought it would be when we had our last earnings call. You know, we knew on the industrial OEM side, you know, there was softness there, particularly in the off-highway, so, you know, construction and ag, and I think you've seen that play out kind of largely as we thought it would. You know, I think the additional piece there is we saw pretty early that the automotive OEM piece was softening as well, and that's not a big part of our business anymore. It's less than 10% of our overall business, and so, you know, that's... You know, that was something that we saw happening in the second half.
I think on the industrial replacement side, again, you know, it's, you know, as PMI is below 50 and, you know, the manufacturing activity remains relatively muted, that's kind of where we thought it would be. You know, our automotive replacement business has done well. You know, continues to be kind of a strength of the business as we work through the first half, and don't see that changing. We've got some of the business wins we've talked about there, and we'll get into that a little bit later, and then from a geography perspective, I think, again, largely what we thought it was gonna be, right? Kind of softness in North America, softness in EMEA, so not a lot different than what we thought it was gonna be.
Yeah, appreciate it. You know, I guess, you know, for the end markets that have been softer, you know, you called out the off-highway, you know, industrial, like we've seen everywhere, has been-
Mm-hmm.
-has been pretty soft. You know, are there anything that you guys are seeing, you know, that kind of give you confidence that those business lines are returning to growth in 2025?
Yeah. I would say the one area that we feel like we're seeing the channel inventory get better, and as we look at some of the program wins we've had, and as we look out into 2025, we feel good about the mobility business, that the mobility business will be, you know, something that we can, you know, start to see growth again, especially as we, you know, we get against some fairly easy comps. You know, I would say for everything else, that we're kind of waiting and see. You know, it's, you know, they're still, you know, trolling along the bottom here, and so I think, like everyone else, we're waiting to see when that inflection point happens.
You know, I would say we've said this a couple of times, and I'll say it again, we don't expect a lot of help there in 2025. When you talk about the industrial OEM, off-highway stuff, I don't think we're thinking that gets a ton better maybe in the short term here, so.
You know, like, when you look across the business, do you see, like, where are the business lines, you know, maybe outside of mobility, where you do have confidence-
Yeah
... you know, in the next twelve months, things getting better?
Yeah. Well, look, I think there's some growth, growth areas of the business that we feel good about, right? I mean, we talked about the mobility business. You know, the Chain- to -Belt initiative, we continue to think we're gonna have growth opportunities there. You know, not only. So we had really attacked that in two ways. One is, with our industrial replacement channel partners, we look at conversions from Chain -to -Belt there, and try to grow our market share. And then we also are looking at the machine OEMs. You know, how do we convert chain drives to belt drives upfront in the machine building process? And so we continue to think the Chain- to -Belt is gonna, you know, be a growth vector for us.
You know, data centers is a new kind of nascent technology that you know or a nascent, I think, application that takes advantage of our existing technology, including, you know, electronic water pumps, which were really developed, you know, in the electric vehicle space, and we've taken that application and used that in our ability to, you know, convey, you know, fluid through almost any application, and so as data centers move from air-cooled to liquid-cooled, we think that's an opportunity, you know, for us to grow, and then I think on the replacement channel side of things, both industrial and automotive, you know, we continue to think we have opportunities to take share there.
You know, I had referenced the two big wins we had in the U.S., you know, one with an existing customer, one with a new customer on the automotive replacement side. You know, we continue to think we can expand our market share and our market presence in places, you know, where we've been for a long time, like North America and EMEA. You know, we've grown our China automotive franchise, automotive replacement franchise, nicely. That's become a very nice business for us. We think we can continue to grow that business. And then also, you know, when you think about some up-and-coming developing economies like India, where the vehicles in operation are just starting to get to a point, you know, where it's meaningful, you know, we think we can continue to grow there.
You know, we have the blueprint on how to grow, like we did in China, and so we'll apply that to some of these developing economies and see if we can't grow there.
Yeah, and maybe digging in, you know, a little bit more on those organic growth drivers. You know, like you said, the company's kind of laid out mobility, industrial Chain -to- Belt, and data center as-
Mm-hmm
... you know, kind of the critical pillars of organic growth.
Mm-hmm.
You know, just maybe starting with mobility, you know, when we look out over twelve months, is that really just a function of the end market starting to turn, you know, or are there, you know, Gates-specific actions that are also, you know, contributing to that?
Yeah, I think it's both, right? So I think the certainly, there was a buildup of inventory in the channel, and we're seeing that flow out and starting to see the orders come in again for the existing business. But we've had a lot of really nice program wins in twenty twenty-four. And so when these programs get up and running in twenty twenty-five, as the inventory gets to a more normalized position, you know, we expect to see incremental growth there as well. So we'll feel pretty good about that. Chain -to -Belt?
Yeah, I guess on the Chain-to-Belt, can you maybe just talk about how uptake is there? What's the value proposition to the customer?
Mm-hmm.
And then maybe the other side of that is, you know, what's the pushback?
Yeah
... that customers, you know, kind of give?
Yeah. Well, you know, start with the pushback, there's always a cost of conversion, right? And so, you know, there's a cost of conversion. However, you know, there are certain applications where it just makes a lot of sense, you know, for a belt drive versus a chain drive. You know, it's quieter, you know, it doesn't require lubrication, so it's cleaner, it's more energy efficient. And so, you know, we've seen, you know, if you go vertical market by vertical market, right, we've seen some penetration in things like pharma, material handling, you know, food and beverage, and it's really a process of going vertical by vertical and developing, you know, and creating wins for yourself, and then kind of cutting and pasting them across that vertical, right? And showing, you know, what your capability there.
And look, you know, most of the applications that we win these designs in have a very strong payback, right? And so once you kind of get in and you show them what the strong payback is, and they see what the application is, it can kind of roll on top of itself like that.
Yeah, and I appreciate that. Then, maybe going to data center.
Mm-hmm.
You know, can you just, you know, maybe talk about, you know, the value add that you guys are providing in data center? You mentioned liquid cooling, you know, still relatively early days there, but-
Mm-hmm
... you know, how are conversations with customers going on the data center side?
Yeah. So, you know, we've-- I think we, you know, we just announced a new hose package for specifically for, you know, liquid cooled data centers. There was a press release we did yesterday. You know, in addition to developing, you know, some new technologies around fluid conveyance, which is the hoses, so you think about, you know, regular fluid conveyance, and then you think about metal-free, right? So you have metal-free hoses, so you don't leach metals as the fluid moves through. You think about things like halogen-free that we're developing, so it doesn't leach, you know, other chemicals from the hose as it moves through the data centers. And so there's different applications just in the fluid conveyance. You know, another big value that we bring is, you know, the electronic water pumps.
You know, again, we developed that as part of our you know battery electric vehicle technology you know in particular for the replacement business. But as you move in these different powers or you know the different power outputs of some of these different electronic water pumps, that lends itself very nicely to the application of pumping the water through the liquid-cooled data center, right? And then we have some belt applications, right, for some precision HVAC precision cooling that goes on in a data center that fit in very nicely as well. And so it's technology that we've developed over time for it with a new application, and so a little bit of tweaking, and it develops very nicely for that application.
Yeah. Chris, I was just gonna add just that on the electronic water pump. Think about the packaging and the efficiency. We can have it in a smaller package, and it's more powerful and more efficient relative to the competition. And so that's one of the advantages that we bring to the table. That's, you know, courtesy of our material science capabilities.
Right.
I think that's something, when you look at our whole package, that, you know, some people may have, you know, water pumps, and some people may have fluid conveyance, but we have all of them-
And-
and the couplings as well.
When you're going to data centers, you know, being able to provide both, do you feel like that's a differentiator when you're talking to customers?
We do. And, like you said earlier, it's nascent, right? But we, you know, we're starting to develop these different packages, you know, selling packages that include all the different pieces of the puzzle, right? And so as we're going out and starting to sell them to all these different, you know, kind of constituents within the, you know, data center universe, you know, they see the value that we bring to the table.
Yeah, I mean, and clearly, you know, efficiency is everything-
Right
... to the data centers when it comes to, you know, energy efficiency. Is it the same competitors in data center that you see across your other served markets, or is it a very different competitor base?
No, I mean, we see, we see pretty similar competitors, you know, in terms of fluid conveyance. You know, I think the... You know, from the fluid conveyance side, I think kind of the differentiator, again, for us is the electronic water pump, and the efficiency we can bring with that, and then our ability to, you know, look at different applications and maybe do some different things for people based on what their application is.
Yeah. Maybe moving from organic growth to margins. You know, the company, you know, appears to be tracking very well to the 2026 margin targets that you guys have laid out. You know, can you just maybe talk about some of the opportunities that you see on the horizon and confidence in being able to continue to deliver that margin expansion?
Yeah. You know, first, let me talk about, you know, kind of material science, material savings. You know, as we went through, you know, some of the inflationary, you know, times we went through in 2022 and 2023, and some of the, you know, supply chain, you know, headwinds, material acquisition headwinds that you went through in 2022 and 2023, you know, that kind of reset our material cost base, and so, you know, we've really put our material science team to work to kind of look at, you know, formulations and compounds and how we do different things. We developed a, you know, a set of initiatives to really drive material costs out. I think that's been one of the big levers that's helped us.
You know, even as volumes have been, you know, you know, a tough putt here over the you know, 2023 and 2024, you know, we've driven incremental margins pretty nicely, right? And we've got a pretty good jumping-off point as we, you know, move through 2024 toward our path, you know, of 24%-25% EBITDA margins. And so that's been kind of one of the big levers that we've moved so far. You know, on our 80/20 initiative, we continue to use that to simplify the business and, you know, how do we optimize pricing and different things like that. So that's been a nice lever for us. And then I think, you know, the newest one we've just announced is, you know, the restructuring program. And so we haven't-...
You know, we weren't really specific, you know, we had a target out there, but we weren't specific on timing and what we were gonna do there. Now that we've kind of you know, looked at the timing, looked at you know, kind of what's going on in the markets, we you know, are able to pull that forward, and now we've got specific targets out there. You know, $40 million of savings, 40% of that will be in run rate as we exit 2025, and the balance, 60%, will be in run rate as we exit 2026. That's gonna be a nice lever, you know, to drive over a hundred basis points of incremental margin improvement over the next couple of years.
Yeah, I guess on that pulling forward of some of the investments that we saw, it doesn't change the overall size of the program?
No.
It's just that you guys are bringing it forward.
That, that's exactly right. I mean, the size of the program really hasn't changed. I think what we've done is we've pulled it forward, and then we've really kind of laid it all out where we're confident to go out and lay out these targets that, you know, that people can count on.
Yeah. You know, maybe turning to the replacement side of the business, and I guess maybe auto specifically, company's biggest served end market. You know, auto replacement, you know, it's been a good, healthy market. You know, cars are. You know, the affordability of cars has not been great. You know, I guess, what do you see on that market as you look out? And is it just a function of new vehicle production? Like, is that... You know, when new vehicle production goes higher, like, would you expect the replacement market to soften, or are there things that you're seeing that could keep it healthy?
No, I don't think so because, look, you know, the car park in general continues to get bigger, right?
Mm-hmm.
And so the number of cars out there gets bigger. The age of the car park continues to get higher, right? And so as long as the car park, you know, continues to age, and as long as the car park continues to grow in size, you know, as you add new vehicles to it, it really doesn't take anything away from our automotive replacement franchise. That doesn't figure into the calculus of it, right? And so while, you know, some may come on and some may go off, the market that we're serving continues to grow, and so we feel good about that.
Is there...
Sorry, well, then one more thing, and it's not just about the size of the market, right? We continue to think we have great opportunities, as I said earlier, to grow our market share on the AR side, both geographically and from where we are today. You know, we have great coverage overall, you know, upwards of 90% and high 90% in a lot of our biggest markets, and so, you know, we serve almost every car that's in operation.
And so we continue to believe we can grow our market share in places where, you know, we've been established for a long time, and we believe we can grow it geographically in some of the places that have emerging economies, where the vehicles in operation are growing to the point where it actually becomes a nice material tailwind for us.
Yeah, I know. Makes a lot of sense. You know, the average vehicle in the U.S. seems to just get older every year.
Mm-hmm.
I imagine part of that is that, you know, as, you know, things get better-
Mm-hmm
... the useful life gets longer, but also we've been, you know, kind of underproducing for five years. Is there a sweet spot for age of vehicle?
I would say that's seven to 15 years-
Yeah
... for us, you know, seven to fifteen years. And like, you know, as, you know, over fifteen years, I mean, that's where it kind of starts to fall off.
Yeah.
But, you know, the average age keeps getting older, right?
Yeah.
And so.
One thing I think that was very interesting on the company's strategy in auto is that, you know, you guys have kind of tried to pull away from the OE market over time, but you really kept a strong foothold in the replacement market. Can you just talk about the strategy there? Because, you know, from the outside looking in, it seems like, you know, winning on the OE side, you know, kind of helps facilitate that replacement business?
Yeah
... at least at the dealership level.
Yeah. And that's really kind of a, you know, a little bit of a misnomer, right? You know, when you have coverage of, you know, all these different vehicles in operation, right? You have to have, you know, the ability to both do high volume, kind of low-mix manufacturing, but also you have to be able to do a lot of high-mix, low-volume manufacturing, right? And that doesn't necessarily lend itself to kind of, you know, hardcore automotive OE, right? Where you wanna do long runs of, you know, very similar products and, you know, turn everything very quickly and not keep a lot of inventories, right? And so from a manufacturing perspective, we're really good at that.
You know, we're really good at you know, keeping our inventories healthy and manufacturing things in an efficient way, and so things like that. In addition, you know, there's a product development side of this, where you look at all the vehicles in operation, how the fleet is aging, when do you need to have new products developed? And then you develop the product, and then you market it to all your distributors, and you talk about putting inventory positions in place. And so you try to time it perfectly, so when it starts to hit that seven-year age-
Yeah
... you've got all the inventories in place, all your distributors have all the inventories they need, the orders start to come in for these replacement parts, right? And everybody's happy. Right? And that's, you know, that's a tough calculus to do. I mean, that's a whole different kind of business than what OE business is, right? And so we feel like we've done very well with that, and so that's a big part of why, you know, we kind of focus on that side of the business. And it really doesn't impact, you know... The ability to win business in the automotive OEM space really doesn't impact our ability to continue to win in the automotive replacement space.
Chris, just an example to put a finer point on to Brooks, what Brooks said, twenty plus years ago or so, the company exited light vehicle OE engine hose, completely eliminated that, and that business is a very strong business for us currently, you know, twenty years later in the after-
... So, I mean, like, the-
Yeah
The correlation there, I think there's a misnomer that you have to be on these programs to be able to serve the aftermarket, and it's not accurate.
Yeah. No, I appreciate that. You know, kind of maybe thinking about some future developments in auto, you know, obviously, electric vehicles are coming. You know, maybe there's toppiness on the penetration, but they are coming. What does that mean for Gates?
Yeah. Well, look, you know, we've got automotive replacement coverage for a lot of the battery electric vehicles that are starting to hit kind of that seven-year age, and we're starting to see some sell-through electronic water pumps. We're starting to see a sell-through on electronic water pumps that we developed specifically for when the fleet would start to age, right? You know, it's gonna be a slow roll. The amount of electric vehicles in operation that are in our sweet spot-
Yeah
... is very small.
Not ready.
Right. And so, you know, we, you know, we've taken a very pragmatic view of it. We think we've invested in the right place, you know, and we invested in the right time to be ready for, you know, battery electric vehicles, as, you know, they come to the right age, and we're able to replace it. At the same time, you know, we wanna continue to make sure we have all the products and all, you know, high service levels, you know, ready for all of the internal combustion engine customers or the hybrid customers as well, 'cause that's gonna be a long-
Yeah
... it's gonna be a long time before that goes anywhere.
You know, I think the OEMs have tried to in-house the aftermarket for a long time. You know, they haven't. There hasn't been a ton of success. You know, Tesla, it seems like, has done a nice job of it. You know, does that... You know, given that you guys are so tied to the aftermarket, you know, if, like, what does that mean for Gates, if the OEMs, you know, are, you know, whether it's because these vehicles are now connected, there's more software, maybe things are more proprietary?
Mm-hmm.
Does that have any impact?
You know, I mean, our content, you know, tends to be for a battery electric vehicle. Our content is actually higher than it is on an internal combustion vehicle, right? And the reason is, you know, you have the electronic water pump, you know, which we think we do a really good job of.
Yeah.
And then you have all these branched hoses that go out and cool the inverters, and they cool the battery and different things like that, so there's a lot of hose in there. And again, you know, those are... You know, that's something that we've been doing for a hundred years very efficiently, right? Making all different kinds of fluid conveyance hose. And so, you know, we feel good about our position in terms of being able to have really strong market coverage around all these different electric vehicles. And that's just not, you know... I just don't think that's in the core -
Yeah
... of what some of the automotive OEMs do, like make hose.
Yeah.
Right? So.
They got,
Yeah
... bigger things to worry about. Does anyone in the audience have any questions that they would like to ask?
Thank you. I was curious, for the data center piece, what's your go-to-market for that, and how would what you're providing compete with other, like, HVAC kind of focused, data cooling companies like Vertiv?
Yeah. Well, I mean, look, those kind of the companies are the ones that we're gonna work with to supply air cooling technologies, right? And so whether it's aggregators, or chip manufacturers, or, you know, we have a partnership with a company called CoolIT as well. You know, we're gonna work with, you know, all these different companies, you know, as, you know, as this kind of application evolves, right? It's still pretty nascent in terms of how it's gonna work out. What we wanna make sure of is that we have the in-house expertise in terms of being able to interface, you know, with these different constituents, and the in-house product capability to serve all those customer needs, and so as these data centers start getting built, that we can win the spec positions as they start getting built, right?
Like I said, you know, we think we have a really competitive package of both, you know, data center-specific hose, and then we also have the additional, you know, really efficient electronic water pump that you can use in that application that we just got a head start on, right? We've been working on that for, you know, since battery electric vehicles came out, so we've got a head start on that.
Yeah, and just to clarify, we're, you know, really have, you know, significant content opportunity on the liquid-cooled side. There is some on the air-cooled side, but it's more significant.
Right
... on liquid cooled, so.
Yeah.
You know, you mentioned earlier, you talked about a couple or two specifically larger replacement wins.
Mm-hmm.
Can you just maybe talk more about those awards and, you know, what it could mean, you know, for, as a growth driver into 2025?
Right. So, you know, the one award with an existing core customer was our fluid power technology. And so, you know, we were working with them on expanding our coverage from a product line perspective, and we're now rolling that out. You know, another is a larger customer, where we started with the PT technology, and we've got additional, both geographic and product line expansion opportunities with that customer. And as you think about 2025, you know, 100 to 150 basis points of top-line growth we would expect for 2025 from those wins.
Got it. You know, we haven't really talked about on-road production down this year. You know, ACT does forecast a recovery as we look out into 2025, 2026. You know, how are your conversations with customers on the on-road side?
Yeah. Well, I mean, it's a relatively, you know, smaller part of our business. Again, I think we're kind of in a wait-and-see mode. I mean, I... You know, you hear some things about, you know, inventory levels being down and purchases being down, and maybe there being an uptick coming. We, you know, we want to be ready for that. You know, at the same time, you know, we're kind of taking a wait-and-see approach. You know, I think the, you know, we're, we are able to flex kind of through the cycle from a production perspective, and we will get, you know, some, you know, we're a short cycle business, so we get pretty good visibility when the worm starts to turn.
Yeah.
-you know, whatever the application is, and so we'll be ready for it.
Yeah.
No, just to add to that, we've actually outperformed versus what you see from a unit standpoint. We've picked up some share in certain geographies, so that's helped us in terms of a core growth standpoint.
Yeah. No, absolutely. You know, earlier, you were talking about, it sounds like the destock has largely run its course, and maybe there are some pockets, I think you said in ag and commercial construction. So I guess, where do you think Gates is in that destock cycle? And maybe what gives you confidence that a lot of the end markets are kind of starting to come out of it?
Yeah. Well, look, I think, first, let's talk, you know, construction and ag. I don't know whether we're out of that yet, so let's wait and see kind of how that turns. You know, look, I mean, you know, we've had an extended period of time of lower industrial activity and low PMI, right? And so, you know, volumes have been tough, you know, for a while. And so, you know, we know that there's gonna be... You know, at some point, it's gonna start to pick up, right? At some point, it's gonna start to pick up. We feel pretty confident in some areas. I talked about mobility. We've got pretty good visibility to what's going on in the channel from a mobility perspective.
You know, we think that that's gonna start to the market's gonna start to come back there. Also, we've got some good program wins there, so we think the market's gonna start to come back there. You know, from a comps perspective, you know, I think we're running up against comps that are, you know, getting pretty close to the bottom. So when you look at some of the things that we think we're gonna grow, you know, the AR wins, you know, continue to take market share in AR, you know, mobility, mobility program wins, as well as mobility market. You know, we think there are some nice growth things that we can layer on for twenty twenty-five, even if some of the other markets-
Yeah
Continue to stay pretty stagnant.
Yeah.
So we feel pretty good about that.
You know, maybe to China, you know, feels like China's been a challenging market for everybody. You know, what are you seeing there? Any pockets of green shoots, anything to kind of be optimistic about when you look over at China?
Yeah. So, you know, look, I mean, like everyone else, you know, auto, you know, auto OEMs not doing great in China. You know, our industrial replacement business has seen some nice green shoots. You know, our China business overall is resilient. It's nicely profitable. The automotive replacement business, you know, remains, you know, a strength there. And so, you know, we've been able to weather through, you know, whether it's, you know, kind of some of the industrial OEM headwinds or now auto OEM headwinds, we've been able to find, you know, some nice green shoots of growth in different places, particularly on the replacement side, to help offset that, right? And so we feel like we're in a good position there to continue to capitalize on growth in the replacement markets, you know, for...
And continue to be able to expand our market presence there. And then when the OEM, you know, starts to turn, that'll be a nice tailwind for us as well.
I guess, you know, on that, you know, the green shoots or the relative strength you're seeing in replacement, I mean, is that just a function of replacement is more durable, more resilient business? Or, you know, is it, you know, is there share wins? Is there something going on with the channel that's allowing you guys to do that?
Yeah. Well, look, I think it's a combination of both, right? I mean, we've got a, you know, global, you know, product line. You know, we, we take a global view of all of our product lines, and, and we make them available kind of in a, in-region, for-region perspective, right? And so, you know, I think we, you know, we continue to expand our market presence, you know, both in terms of going out and winning business because we've got available product there. And then also, you know, you know, you know, not too different than automotive replacement, if, you know, OEM business is down, that means the other stuff, they're keeping in life a little bit longer-
Yeah
... right? There's an opportunity to get some growth there, right? And I think that's one of the great things about our replacement franchise, is it is a nice offset-
Yeah
... to if you see some weakness on the OEM side, you know, if you've got the right franchise, the right products, the right sales force, which I think we do, you can go out there and offset that and continue to grow.
Yeah. On last conference call, you guys were talking about, you know, some areas of cost pressure, some spots still feeling inflation.
Mm-hmm.
I guess, you know, kind of taking that and thinking about price cost moving forward, you know, is there an expectation that you guys are gonna stay price- cost positive? And how important is that to achieving some of the 2026 margin targets?
Yeah. Well, look, we always want to stay price- cost positive, right? And so, you know, two-thirds of our business is through distribution.
Yeah.
You know, pricing and distribution tends to be pretty sticky. In addition, you know, as we're, you know, we continue to grow, you know, and expand our 80/20 coverage across all geographies and all channels, you know, there's, you know, strategic pricing and pricing optimization programs that we're working with there. You know, we make a lot of SKUs. We make hundreds of thousands of SKUs, and so it's very important that we price optimally, you know, both on the, you know, front end of the higher volume stuff and then the long tail of lower volume stuff, right? And so we're gonna continue to work through that pricing optimization, and we feel like that's gonna be a tailwind as we move forward as well.
No, appreciate it. Well, we're up on the 30-minute.
Yeah.
Very much appreciated the time.
Yeah.
Love the conversation. Thank you, guys.
Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Appreciate having you out, man.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thanks for coming.