Hi, thank you everybody for joining us again. As our day continues, really excited to have Gates Industrial joining us, and who better than their CEO, Ivo Jurek? He's been with the company now through the journey, coming out as a separate company, a lot of heavy lifting, and of course the setback around the pandemic was obviously unforeseen. Kind of coming out of that, and hopefully the COVID issue is mostly behind us, let's hope. Other issues afoot when it comes to Fed, to geopolitical, so a lot we can talk about. Ivo, first, just obviously thank you for taking the time. I'll turn it to you if you have any kind of opening remarks, things that you want to make sure investors hear about Gates, some key initiatives that you're thinking about, and then I'll be happy to take it from there with questions.
Terrific, thanks. Thanks for inviting me, and always a pleasure to participate at your conference, David. Look, you know Gates has had an interesting journey since the IPO. We have, for a good measure, gone through what I think somebody termed as a President Trump China recession. Once the recession started coming, breaking through, we go straight into a global pandemic, and we've been operating over the last couple of years in a very, very interesting operating environment. You know when I take a look in particular over the last couple of years, so maybe the last two years of the pandemic, you know Gates has performed very, very well throughout 2020 into 2022. You know we like to compare ourselves to a premium industrial peer group, so some of the much higher multiple industrial multinational industrial companies.
You know when I take a look at 2019, and sorry, when I take a look at 2020 and 2021, you know Gates kind of performed very much in line with a premium industrial peer group in 2020. That peer group was down 8%-9% core, Gates was down about 8.6% on core, so right smack in the middle. When you take a look at 2021, we have delivered, despite all the difficult impediments that everybody had to deal with, we have delivered 21% core growth in 2021. Nothing to be ashamed of while that same industrial peer group of premium peers have delivered about a 13% core growth. You know we feel good about how we have positioned the company. We have delivered terrific results.
We have delivered record level of revenues for the company in its history in 2021, and nearly record level of profitability. The company is in very good shape. Over the last three years or so, we have positioned the company to take advantage of a number of secular growth trends that we believe will be with us for a very long time. I've spoken a lot about chain to belt opportunity for the company. Meanwhile, we have kind of segmented that opportunity into personal mobility and micro mobility based chain to belt that has continued to deliver terrific, terrific results just over the last four years. Basically coming from about $20 million of revenue in 2018 timeframe to nearly 4% of the total company revenue. You know, do the math, about $140 million, so terrific amount of growth over that period of time and continue to accelerate.
The industrial diversified industrial opportunities with displacing the industrial chain by Gates highly precision engineered carbon reinforced belting that offers tremendous amount of not only ESG benefits, but operating benefits for the companies that adopt our solutions. We are very optimistic about those secular type opportunities. Frankly, exiting 2021, we've exited with the markets, the end markets that we participate in a very good shape. Perhaps all markets with the exception of participation in automotive OEM markets are in expansionary period of time. We are very well positioned to take opportunity on those growth trajectories, you know, as soon as we start seeing much greater breakout of the impediments that everybody's facing vis-à-vis raw material, COVID, and logistics and distribution. You know, in a nutshell, we feel good about where we sit.
I think we have a great set of opportunities out there over the midterm, and we are really excited about being able to share those with our investors and with the analyst community in greater detail next Tuesday in New York in the Grand Hyatt at Park Hyatt during our investor day.
Yeah, no, that'll be great. I will definitely be in attendance. Regarding Russia, Ukraine, just to level set everybody, can you give us a sense of direct exposure? Are you voluntarily shutting down sales in those parts of the world? How does it also maybe filter through your supply chain? Maybe it's a tier two, tier three, tier four that's having greater challenges to get nickel or whatever the raw material might be. Just curious how you're sitting down with your operating folks and getting that feedback and maybe some tactics that you're taking.
Yeah, I think it's a great question. First of all, I would be remiss if I didn't share the horror under which we watched the atrocities that are unwinding in Ukraine. I think it's absolutely uncalled for, and it is a terrible situation. That being said, we have a very diminished amount of revenue that we generate in the region, very low single digit, low single digit amount of revenue that we generate out of Russia and Ukraine. We have been very proactively looking at, frankly, getting ourselves to a position where we are no longer supplying anything in advance of the sanctions to that region. We don't believe that the amount of revenue we generate is material, and we do not rely on any raw material supply out of Russia for the products that we manufacture.
You know our exposure is reasonably limited, again, very low single digits in terms of revenue exposure and no material dependency on raw material supply out of Russia.
Okay. Given though that situation, unfortunately, is also causing a little, let's say, sustainability to some of the inflation that might have been more than transitory already, this obviously gives it maybe even a little more fuel to that fire. How does that make you think about when you can get price cost back to being margin neutral, not just price cost neutral, but margin neutral? If you can take us through the timing on that and maybe some of the recent events, how that impacts the calculus.
Yeah. David, we have been, I think, pretty realistic about what we believe we will see with inflation in 2022. Obviously, we have seen that inflation ramp up quite significantly in the second half of 2021. You know we did manage to be price material economics neutral, so not margin neutral, but certainly price material economics neutral. We've had a little bigger gap in Q4 that certainly impacted our operating margins in Q4, and we've anticipated and we've guided for a compression of margins through Q1 as well. We believe that Q4 and Q1, certainly Q1 of 2022, will be kind of the peak of the impact that we will see on our margin vis-à-vis inflation. We've anticipated that we'll continue to see energy spikes.
We certainly are going to be very proactive to manage any further increases in energy costs globally that we may see as a result of this invasion, unlawful invasion into Ukraine. Should we start seeing a dramatic acceleration beyond what we have planned on, we will continue to roll up more pricing. Absent that, we anticipate that our pricing, certainly in the second half of 2022 and as we exit 2022, should be adequate for us to be margin neutral vis-à-vis inflation that we have seen and we are seeing at this point in time. We have enough price that we have rolled in. Pricing has been rolling in from the beginning of Q1, from the beginning of January. It will take a few more months before it ramps up through all the channels, all the customers globally.
We believe that Q1 of this year is going to be the most impacted quarter of the year. As we exit Q1 into Q2, we will start getting more positive on price material economics as well as margin economics.
That said, while 2Q is better than margins in aggregate, EBITDA margin still down year over year in 2Q, but you're still comfortable and given the comp, I think people would hope so, right? Third quarter, your margin should back to being up year over year. Is that fair?
That's how we envisage, David, that it will develop. Now, obviously, again, back to your point, should inflation ramp up further, we will continue to take prices and we'll continue to adjust for inflation as we see fit.
When it comes to your product being so replacement channel centric, it's easy for me to sit here and say, hey, that, I mean, somebody's belt breaks on a car. I mean, you can charge what you want. I mean, you obviously have, if not number one, clearly one of the very top brands in the industry by far. You just would think it'd be a fairly easy market. I appreciate it, Jurek. There were some timing issues and trying to work with customers on, don't try to get an October 15th or November 1 increase if you're going to have one in January.
The reaction that you can have if inflation works against you, the mechanism now that we're not around a year-end issue, if I told you your costs were going to surprise you by 50 basis points come 2Q or 3Q, how quickly can you get that in? Again, being a replacement channel, it's easier for me to say than you'd execute, but I would think it wouldn't be that challenging to get a price increase through.
Look, it isn't really how challenging is the price to get through the channel. I think that the channel understands and is more than receptive in being able to take whatever inflation is rolling through the manufacturer's database. You know, the complexity gets in when you start talking about repricing the entire price book. You know, we supply tens of thousands of SKUs to these replacement channel customers, and it's about the mechanics of being able to get all the right pricing so that they can take the price to shelf on their end. You know, we still believe that 90 days is the right timing for us to be able to get these pricing into the shelf at our customers.
Look, if there is a situation where we believe we need to do a much more dramatic set of steps, we can certainly do that much faster. Look, we ultimately price on shipment. As you know, we get pricing rectified, all the shipments that go post price increases get invoiced at the new pricing. You know, we have levers that we can pull in any emergency. You know, should we see more significant disruption in 2022 than what we have seen in 2021, we will do that. We also believe that, you know, our relationships are important. You know, there are relationships that have been built over, you know, 100 years of history as Gates Corporation. We value those, and we want to be effective and efficient in rolling pricing into the end market.
You know that's how we have, that's the decision we have taken in Q4, and we believe it was the right decision. We will certainly reasonably quickly catch up to the inflation that we have seen over the last, you know, 90 or 180 days.
I haven't gotten the impression supply chains are improving. Would you say they're at least going according to your plan this year? Thus, again, outside of any geopolitical shock on cost, the availability of your components so far that you need, the raw materials, would you say is no better, but you just give me the playbook. I know my pricing will kick in, and that's sort of the situation. Have you seen some pockets maybe it's improved or it's gotten worse?
Yeah, look, David, we actually are in a little bit maybe unique situation because we use highly engineered compounds. Many of these compounds, a number of these compounds actually have been impacted in 2021 by the Korean War Act that was enacted in combat of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have had more constraints that we have had to live with in 2021 from a number of very critical raw materials that we utilize in building our products. I'll say that the Korean War Act has expired at the end of December. On my call in Q4, on my Q4 earnings call, I stated that we're actually seeing some green shoots in raw material supply. We are starting to get somewhat cautiously optimistic that as we exit Q1, we will be in a much better situation than we have been in 2021.
Now, when I say green shoots, I didn't say we are off to the races. We've got to get that material into our factories, and we've got to position it in the factories of point of use. Things are improving, but they are not great yet. There are still raw material shortages, but I would say they are not as broad-based as what we have seen in 2021. We are more cautiously optimistic, and we believe that as we enter Q2 and we work through Q2, we should be in a much better situation than, frankly, what we have seen in the second half of 2021 in particular.
When I think about that and I think about your individual business segments, is there one of the two segments that should benefit most from those highly engineered compounds being more available? Is it the belt side, I mean, the PT power transmission business, or is it the FP or really no distinguishing feature between the two that would benefit?
David, there's no real distinguishing feature. I mean, I think that on one side, you could say that we have more benefits on the power transmission side. Unfortunately, some of the other constraints that we are still living with are also impacting the power transmission business. I would say net-net, it is hitting or it is improving across the portfolio in a measured, meaningful way for both of our product segments. We will still be dealing with some degree of material constraints, I think, well into 2022. Again, we've managed through significant constraints in 2021. We will certainly be managing through some of those that will remain in place, and some things will get easier. There are things that are getting easier, and we are, again, cautiously optimistic that things will be better for us as we enter Q2 of 2022.
If I have my numbers right, it seems like you're implying EBITDA margins flat for the year, right? Down year over year in the first half, growing in the second half. We come back to basically flattish margins year over year, EBITDA margins. Is there something distinguishing between PT and FP on their year over year? Like fluid maybe in a position to be up a little bit and PT is down? Can you give me a little color on how to think about the margins by segment?
Yeah, look, David, we don't necessarily guide by the segment, as you know, but both of these segments behave reasonably well in harmony with each other. As long as we can secure raw material, as long as we secure labor to be able to convert the raw material into finished goods, both of these segments will benefit. Again, both segments are getting a good level of pricing on the products that we merchandise to our customers. I would be expecting that maybe the growth is going to be a little better in fluid power in 2022. Look, we still believe that if you eliminate the comps, and the comps in the first half are also very difficult because we had two of the best quarters in a company's 110-year history in Q1 and Q2 of 2021. Comp is an issue.
You really didn't have lots of inflation in the first half of last year, and that inflation crept in in the second half of the year. As I indicated, we still believe that we're going to be challenged in the first half of the year with price material economics to a degree until we start getting the right side up in the second half of the year. The comp as well is an issue that comes to play in the first half, but I would say that I would look at both of these segments kind of more in harmony, and both will benefit.
Can you give us a little insight into China? I mean, I think if I'm going to have it right, maybe it's 11-12% of your revenues. Not huge, but clearly not immaterial. Can you give us a sense? We have a little more, I think, auto OE exposure there than maybe the average geography as you're still kind of building out that auto business. It's more of a replacement-focused business. Any insight you can give us on maybe how the government is signaling to your folks on the ground about kind of post-Olympics, post-Chinese New Year? Generally, for a lot of people, it's been a down market. I know China for you last year was up, I think, 19%, but I think it was down in the fourth quarter. Can you give us a little color on what you're seeing on the ground?
Sure. David, from a strategic perspective, we have spent, I would say, considerable effort to continue to build our industrial business and, frankly, our broader presence in replacement channels. I spent quite a bit of time over the last few years to talk about it, highlight that, and felt pretty bullish about what it is that we were doing. Our business in China in Q4 has been primarily impacted by a decline in automotive OEM and the construction equipment demand. Again, in the first fit channels. The auto OEM and the construction channel in Q4 were reasonably weak. Our growth initiatives are targeting diversified industrial and personal mobility and markets very much similar to what we have talked about more broadly from a company perspective. We have shown very good progress in China with those initiatives as well.
We see plenty of good opportunity there for those initiatives to ramp up. If I take a kind of look at the puts and takes, what we have a good level of confidence presently with China is that we can once again deliver a core growth kind of in that mid-single-digit level as we work through some of the impediments in the automotive business in the first half. I think that the situation is getting a little bit better maybe is a good way to characterize on the auto OEM side as we get past the Olympics and some of the restrictions that were layered in China in Q1 post-Chinese New Year.
We believe that the industrial activity is going to pick up in the second quarter, and that bodes well for our business and gives us even greater confidence that we will again deliver another year of positive core growth in China. China has been a very good business for us. It is a large economy. It's an economy. It's probably the largest industrial economy. I underline the word industrial. I believe that we have plenty of runway to continue to deliver growth and continue to scale up our business there. We do not really import anything out of China anywhere to any country outside of China. Everything that we have in China is for China. We believe that those opportunities to continue to capitalize on the growth in China are still very robust and remain intact.
Given the leverage you came out on the IPO over five years ago, right? I think it was five, six times levered, something like that. Now you're a lot more, I'd say, in a healthy position at 2.5, 2.6 times net debt to EBITDA. How should I think about your comfort with now really leaning forward with the balance sheet or just given, I mean, from the Fed to geopolitical, whatever it may be, right? COVID recedes, and we have other things to worry about. Where are you in your appetite to really use the balance sheet in 2022? Or is it a little more of a wait and see, kind of block and tackle more on the price cost and the margin? And then it's more of a 2023 story on maybe leaning forward with the balance sheet and another year of deleveraging, let's say?
Yeah. Look, I mean, as you said it very eloquently, we have not really had the balance sheet to put to work in a meaningful way over the last few years. I am really delighted that we got ahead of our time frame on delivering the company. That really speaks volumes about our ability to deliver cash flow, continue to grow the business, and continue to grow earnings. All of these three attributes helped us to deliver the business faster than what we've anticipated. That being said, we are now in a position to put the balance sheet to work. There are a tremendous amount of opportunities in terms of M&A.
Look, yes, maybe people are starting to ask themselves, "Hey, should I be doing M&A during an environment that may be somewhat problematic?" We believe that if the opportunities to add a good company into our portfolio are there, we will lean forward to do something. We also believe that our stock is undervalued. As you know, we have gotten an authorization to buy back over $200 million of shares of the outstanding shares in the marketplace. It will certainly continue to ensure that we do that. That being said, we continue to invest in our business in terms of organic growth. Again, I spoke a little bit about some of our situation vis-à-vis the growth opportunities that are out there. Generally speaking, the investment into organic growth initiatives is the one that's got the highest IRR. We will continue to prioritize that.
I think that there's room for us to do all three. We will not wait until 2023 to do a combination of them. We'll continue to ensure that we do the right thing and we return capital to shareholders as well as we invest in opportunities that will generate the highest return for our shareholders.
Is it fair to say from that answer that share repo is at least as high in a priority near-term as M&A?
Absolutely. It absolutely is. Look, David, you know we are carrying way too much cash on our balance sheet, and we do not need as much cash. We got plenty of opportunity to do a share repurchase as well as to M&A.
When it comes to M&A, when I think of your bigger initiatives, they feel more PT-centric. But when it comes to M&A, is that an oversimplification of also where you want to invest? Or do you feel your core strength maybe is more differentiation, more core PT than fluid power where you're just not quite as dominant as you are in PT in that fluid power space?
Yeah, look, I would say that maybe it feels that way because we have spoken about FP maybe from 2018 through 2019. We've made a major investment to scale up that business. And frankly, it's delivered very strong returns for us. I mean, our FP business last year grew 24%. I'll put that number out there against anybody. I'll also remind you that we are top three market shareholders in fluid power globally. We are actually one of the biggest market participants globally in FP. We believe that we've kind of spoke our piece. We are well-positioned. We revitalized the portfolio, and we execute on that strategy kind of as a run-rate strategy. We are in very good shape in FP.
We haven't really done all of the same amount of work in PT, and maybe that's why it feels like we talk more about the PT. We are revitalizing our portfolio, which we started a little bit later than we started on fluid power. We believe that that secular opportunity in chain to belt is so large that we've got to be laser-focused on execution. Frankly, we've got to make sure that we don't run out of capacity to be able to support the continued growth of a pipeline of opportunities and new business that we have won and have allocated to Gates over the next 18 months, which is quite substantial. Our focus on PT is to do just that, stay focused, and continue to execute and revitalize the portfolio. On FP, we're in a very good shape.
The factories that you've built that now finally have some tailwind to really fill them up, have they given you most of that benefit so far in the sense of, I mean, obviously, 2020 was unfortunate to have the factories ready to turn on, provide better margin, then the volume didn't show up. With the volume in 2021 and now the start of 2022, from here, is it more traditional operating leverage, or is there still a lot to go with those factories versus the legacy footprint? Are the new factories that much more profitable and still headroom to grow them up?
Absolutely. I think that the new factories gave us everything that we've anticipated, gave us the position and proximity to these markets. Look, we have grown really, really nicely in fluid power in Europe in particular, where that factory that we built in Poland has been the first factory that we had in the European community producing fluid power. That's delivering terrific results. Our factory in Mexico that we have doubled in size in 2018 has been delivering terrific results for us. We feel that those factories are doing exactly everything that we've anticipated. Again, remember, we have stated that we wanted to build those factories to scale up fluid power and give us an opportunity to reposition our manufacturing footprint to locations where it is easier to find people and to globalize our business. We have done just that.
We are very pleased with what happened. We believe that as price material economics are going to start leveling off at some point in time in the near-term future, we will see a very nice expansion of operating margins as well.
I'll leave with this. Is it fair to say you seem fairly comfortable with the numbers out there for the year and kind of how you're seeing it play out on, be it margin or revenue, however you get there? You seem pretty comfortable with kind of where the street is and how we're thinking about the numbers for 2022?
David, today, I absolutely am. What I have learned over the last two years is that there's always going to be the next challenge. We have got to be ready for it. I think that this organization, this company, the management team is ready to deal with the next challenge, although we would all like to see a degree of stability in the economics out there. We are very realistic about what is potentially going to occur in the near-term future. We will manage through it. We believe that we have a great business, highly engineered precision components that are critical in application that they are used and need replacement. That is a really wonderful position to be in.
We are very optimistic about 2022 and beyond what we can deliver in terms of servicing our customers, facilitating a transition to a more efficient manufacturing footprint for our customers, easier use of our products, and ultimately generating greater returns for our shareholders.
That's great. Look, I really appreciate you taking the time. Hopefully, you have some other good meetings the rest of today, and we'll be watching. I really appreciate it. We'll see you in person next Tuesday. That's great.
Thank you.
Thank you. Really appreciate it, Ivo. Have a great day. Thank you, everybody, for listening in.