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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 28, 2022

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Q1 2022 Garrett Motion Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now turn the conference over to Paul Blalock. Mr. Blalock, please go ahead.

Paul Blalock
VP of Investor Relations, Garrett Motion

Thank you, operator. Good day and welcome everyone, and thank you for joining the Garrett Motion first quarter 2022 financial results conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to mention that today's presentation and earnings press release are available on the Garrett Motion website at garrettmotion.com, where you will also find links to our SEC filings along with other important information about our company.

Turning to slide two, we note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Exchange Act. We encourage you to read the risk factors contained in our SEC filings, become aware of the risks and uncertainties in our business, and understand that forward-looking statements are only estimates of future performance and should be taken as such.

The forward-looking statements represent management's expectations only as of today, and the company disclaims any obligation to update them. Today's presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to describe the way in which we manage and operate our business.

We reconcile each of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, and you are encouraged to examine those reconciliations which are found in the appendix to both the press release and the slide presentation.

Also in today's presentation and comments, we may refer to light vehicle diesel and light vehicle gasoline products by using the terms diesel and gasoline only. With us today is Olivier Rabiller, Garrett's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sean Deason, Garrett's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand it over to Olivier.

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

Thanks, Paul, and welcome everyone to Garrett's first quarter conference call. I will begin my remarks on slide three, where we start with highlights for the first quarter. Garrett achieved strong first quarter performance in a challenging near-term environment, highlighted by a slower than anticipated light vehicle production recovery, stronger inflationary pressure and supply chain constraint impacting OEM production volume.

This created numerous difficulties for our employees and supply chain partners. I would like to thank everyone for their hard work and dedication in these circumstances. Our employees did a great job in managing through these challenges.

I would like to particularly thank our employees in China, and specifically in Shanghai, as we maintain production near capacity through great personal sacrifice during the ongoing lockdowns. This again demonstrates that our people are a key differentiator to our performance and the long-term success of Garrett.

Compared with last year, Q1 2022 net sales of $901 million were down 10% on a GAAP basis and 6% on a constant currency basis. The constant currency decline of 6% in Q1 2022 sales is approximately equal to or flat with estimated light vehicle production versus Q1 2021.

This is driven by the ongoing semiconductor shortage and other supply chain challenges impacting vehicle production globally, but even more in China. These short-term constraints do not impact the strength of underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles or the increased pace of turbo penetration.

Adjusted EBITDA of $146 million and the resulting adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% are also down from Q1 2021 due to the factors mentioned above, but trended upward from Q4 of last year as pricing pass-through initiatives and additional productivity offset inflation and increased supply chain costs.

This even considering our increased R&D investment into new technology for the future. Indeed, I'm proud of the performance we achieved as we have managed to offset the impact of lower vehicle production due to supply chain constraint and disruptions, but more importantly of higher costs driven by additional inflation. This is the result of candid discussions with our customers to find business solutions to recognize increasing costs, but also the result of additional productivity initiatives that we have implemented.

Garrett continues to improve its financial flexibility in the first quarter by prepaying an additional $197 million in Series B preferred stock as previously anticipated, and we increased the capacity of our revolving credit facility to $475 million, adding to our liquidity position, which increased to $788 million from $720 million in Q4 2021.

Lastly, including the remaining Series B preferred balance, Garrett ended the first quarter with a net debt to consolidated EBITDA coverage ratio of 1.88 times, down from 1.95 times in Q4 2021. Turning now to slide four.

I first want to reemphasize the point that the short-term OEM supply chain challenges do not impact the strong underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles that combine with increasing turbo penetration, driven by toughening emission standards and technology-driven turbo industry consolidation, paves the way for robust growth in revenue and share demand for the highly cash generative core business of Garrett.

This quarter, we are also happy to signal the first commercial launch of our industry-first E-Turbo technology on the Mercedes-AMG SL 43. This award-winning and innovative device highlights Garrett's remarkable progress in developing unmatched in-house capabilities in high-speed motors, power electronics, and controls, as well as our software capabilities inherent in electrified powertrain. This initial E-Turbo deployment is indeed expected to be followed by additional ones.

I am also very proud to report a very important business win that underlines both the advances we have made in the development of critical electric systems for fuel cell powertrains and the growing focus of our customers on hydrogen electric vehicles. In fact, we were just awarded a third-generation fuel cell compressor program from a major global OEM for a light commercial vehicle program that is expected to launch within the next 2-3 years.

The strength of the cash flow generation of our core business enables us to continue to invest in the future of our technologies for growth, offering potential technology differentiation and addressing the industry transformation. As mentioned during our prior earnings release, we plan to invest 50% of our 2022 R&D spend to new non-core turbo technologies.

To support this effort this quarter, we have opened additional electric lab capabilities in our main development hubs, but more importantly, we are recruiting more than 150 new engineers that are experts in electrification technologies.

This hiring success confirms the attractiveness of Garrett as a new technology provider, but also validates the credibility of the technology capabilities we have developed in the eyes of these electric experts joining our company. With that, I will now turn it over to Sean to provide more insight on our results.

Sean Deason
SVP and CFO, Garrett Motion

Thanks, Olivier, and welcome everyone. I will begin my remarks on slide five. Looking at the upper left-hand graph, Q1 of 2021 was the strongest sales quarter over the last five quarters for two reasons. One, it was largely before the semiconductor shortage, and Two, Q1 of 2021 had pent-up demand from the lifting of COVID lockdowns in 2020.

As Olivier just mentioned, Q1 of 2022 net sales were down 6% at constant currency from Q1 of 2021. As you can see here, the semiconductor shortage peaked in Q3 of 2021, which drove the lowest sales quarter for 2021, and sales have been on an upward swing since that low point on a sequential basis. Q1 2022 sales increased 5% from Q4 of 2021.

Turning to the right-hand side of the page, while adjusted EBITDA of $146 million in Q1 of 2022 decreased 17% from Q1 of 2021, it was up on a sequential basis by 13% from Q4 of 2021. Similarly, the Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% is down from 17.7% in Q1 of 2021. Importantly, our Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% improved 120 basis points sequentially from Q4 of 2021.

This performance highlights the ability of Garrett to manage core operations by flexing our variable cost structure and successfully pass through inflationary pressures. This is a key differentiator and competency for Garrett, and we will speak more on this point later in the presentation.

Lastly, in Q1 2022, adjusted free cash flow was $38 million, driven by lower volume and continued CapEx investments, which were higher due to carryover from 2021, which is typical in the first quarter. Turning to slide 6, you see our year-over-year net sales bridge for Q1 by product category.

As mentioned earlier, the continued impact of the ongoing semiconductor shortage weighed on vehicle production schedules and drove Q1 2022 gasoline, diesel, and commercial vehicle sales lower. Compared to the same period in the prior year, gasoline product sales decreased 5% at constant currency and were 40% of total net sales. Diesel product sales decreased 14% at constant currency and were 28% of sales, and commercial vehicles decreased 7% and represented 19% of sales.

On the positive side, strong aftermarket off-highway demand, particularly in North America and Europe, allowed this vertical to grow 19% year-over-year at constant currency and represented 12% of total sales. The strength of aftermarket and the fact that 32% of our first quarter sales were due to the more profitable verticals of commercial vehicle and aftermarket demonstrates the benefit of Garrett's well-diversified and broad portfolio of products.

Lastly, the overall FX impact hurt Q1 2022 sales by $36 million and is reflective of a weakening euro. Turning to slide seven, you see our Q1 to Q1 adjusted EBITDA bridge to Q1 2022. Although Q1 2022 volumes of 3.4 million units were up 4% sequentially from Q4 of 2021, they were down 10% from Q1 of 2021, primarily driven by a 43 million volume and FX related reduction, partially offset by product mix, the decline of which is due primarily to semiconductor shortages.

It is important to note that we still see a very strong underlying demand for light vehicles, which we expect to result in sustained future demand once the semiconductor and supply chain issues are resolved. While these macro headwinds presented challenges, we successfully flexed our variable cost structure to adapt to volatile production schedules, continued to deliver material and production productivity, and passed through inflationary pressures, resulting in a strong margin, even with an increased investment into R&D spending as planned.

In summary, Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $146 million led to a 16.2% adjusted EBITDA margin as we successfully offset inflationary pressures and a higher R&D spend through productivity pass-through efforts despite lower volumes and foreign exchange headwinds. On slide eight, you can see our adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow walk for Q1.

Looking at the right-hand side of the slide, you will see that Garrett's high working capital turnover has historically provided a source of cash on an annual basis, assuming a stable and increasing volume in sales environment. However, in Q1 of 2022, working capital was a slight use of cash of $7 million after being a source of $84 million of cash in Q4 of 2021 and $38 million in Q1 of 2021.

The slightly negative working capital result this quarter was due to supply chain constraints limiting OEM production, which drove inventories higher. Shifting to the left-hand side of the slide, you will see the Q1 2022 bridge from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow.

Deducting the change in working capital, cash taxes, capital expenditures, including carryover spend from 2021 projects, cash interest, which includes factoring PIK notes and $11 million of Series B accretion related to the early retirement of $197 million of Series B shares, and the $20 million in employee bonus incentives related to 2021 all resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $38 million for Q1 of 2022. Overall, Garrett delivered positive adjusted free cash flow in a challenging environment while increasing CapEx and R&D spending as planned.

Turning now to slide nine, we ended Q1 2022 with expanded revolver capacity, increasing our available liquidity to $788 million, including $315 million in unrestricted cash and approximately $473 million in undrawn commitments. We also redeemed $197 million in Series B preferred stock, helping to further improve our leverage ratio.

Following the Q1 2022 payment, the present value of remaining scheduled redemption payments on the Series B shares is $204 million as of March 31, 2022. Importantly, including the Series B preferred stock, Garrett's net debt to consolidated EBITDA ratio declined to a coverage level of 1.88 times from 1.95 times in Q4 of 2021.

Lastly, during the quarter, we also repurchased 50,000 common shares and 197,000 Series A preferred shares, bringing the total equity repurchase since the plan was adopted during Q4 of 2021 to 21 million, leaving 79 million of available capacity under our buyback program. In summary, Garrett continued to deleverage and enhance our financial flexibility through an expanded revolver and positive free cash flow generation.

Turning now to slide 10, we provide our revised 2022 outlook as compared with our prior outlook issued in mid-February. For the full year of 2022, we are lowering our outlook to reflect supply chain constraints, which are driving lower global light vehicle automotive production for 2022, as well as FX rates, in particular, a weaker euro.

For global light vehicle auto production, our planning assumption is now flat to 2021 light vehicle production or approximately 77 million engines. To put our updated 2022 assumption of 77 million engines in context, the latest IHS low estimate for 2022 is 77.6 million engines, and the average for 2018 and 2019 was 91.8 million engines.

As such, our new 2022 outlook calls for the ranges you see on the slide that imply the following midpoints, net sales of $3.6 billion, net income of $273 million, adjusted EBITDA of $560 million, net cash provided by operating activities of $455 million, and adjusted free cash flow of $380 million. This guidance also assumes continued disruptions in Q2, possibly into early Q3, and then a recovery in the second half with a strong finish in the fourth quarter of 2022.

For greater detail, I point you to the reconciliations of each of these metrics to the nearest GAAP figure as shown in the appendix of this presentation. Turning now to slide 11, we show the adjusted EBITDA walk for our prior outlook versus our revised outlook.

As we have discussed earlier, on a full year basis and similar to our performance in the first quarter, we plan to continue to flex our variable cost structure to adapt to volatile light vehicle production schedules and mitigate current inflationary pressures through productivity and contracted pass-throughs.

Like we said on the last slide, the two main macro pressures that drive our lower adjusted EBITDA outlook are supply chain constraints at the OEMs, resulting in lower auto production volumes and a weaker euro. We expect these factors will persist in Q2 and possibly part of Q3 before beginning to improve.

Operationally, we are delivering on our commitment to mitigate inflation and plan to spend $18 million more on R&D related to investments in new technologies. When you compare the prior adjusted EBITDA guidance, the macro factors of lower supply chain-related production drives a $40 million reduction in FX, mainly a weaker euro now seen at $1.08 to the euro for the full year versus the prior assumption of 1.13, results in a reduction of $28 million.

As we noted earlier, we also see significant pent-up demand for light vehicles, which we believe will result in sustained growth for Garrett once supply chain constraints are resolved in the automotive industry. With that, I will now hand it back to Olivier for his concluding remarks.

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

Thank you, Sean. In summary, on slide 12, Garrett delivered solid results in Q1 of 2022, with net sales of $901 million. While this was a decrease of 6% at constant currency from the first quarter of last year, it was an increase of 5% over Q4 2021. The current automotive supply chain challenges are not impacting the strong underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles.

Additionally, the increasing turbo penetration and technology-driven turbo industry consolidation paves the way for robust growth in revenue and cash generation once the automotive industry supply chain normalizes. Garrett generated an adjusted EBITDA of $146 million with a margin of 16.2%, and this is a solid performance in light of the reduced production, increased inflation, and overall supply chain volatility.

It gives us confidence that we have the means to address inflation and supply chain challenges. We also reduced our net leverage to 1.88, including the Series B preferred stock from 1.95 at the end of 2021. This continued improvement in our balance sheet positions the company well for the future, and we ended Q1 of 2022 with $788 million in total liquidity, up from $720 million last quarter.

Indeed, we have revised our 2022 outlook to reflect essentially two macroeconomic factors, the weakening of the euro and the more pessimistic view for the 2022 light vehicle automotive industry production that we now expect to be approximately flat to 2021.

Our robust operational execution, even in these volatile times, and as demonstrated in Q1, will enable us to take advantage of any improvement on these points. I would like, once again, to thank our employees for their dedication in a volatile environment. Their contribution and flexibility drove another successful quarter of strong performance for Garrett. Operator, we are now ready, I think, to begin the Q&A session.

Operator

Yes. Thank you. At this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. The first question comes from Hamed Khorsand with BWS Financial.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

Hi. Sean, I had a housekeeping question, could you disclose how many units were sold this past quarter?

Sean Deason
SVP and CFO, Garrett Motion

We didn't disclose, but it was approximately 3.4 million turbos is what was sold, sale price.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

Okay, thank you. The question I had was, are you seeing anything different from the ordering habits of customers, or is it still volatile like it was in 2021? Have they just held back completely just given the macro factors going on?

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

That's a very interesting question because I think we were having a huge level of volatility, let's say Q3, Q4, 2021. We started the year with something that was a bit more stable. We had increased volatility into the quarter. I would say the level of volatility we see today in our demand is very close to what we had in Q3 last year and very close to what we had after the first wave of COVID.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

Okay.

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

We are back into the same. Quite frankly, that's what I'm hearing, not only from us, but from everyone in the industry.

Sean Deason
SVP and CFO, Garrett Motion

Hamed, just so you know, on slide eight, the working capital slide, we do disclose the quarterly volumes of the turbos.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

Okay. Just given that volatility comment, do you feel like it's different this time versus last year, or is it similar just given that, you know, some of this is with China lockdowns going on right now?

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

What we see is that, obviously, the lockdowns in China are not improving the situation. Overall, the main driver for the volatility of demand we see remains semiconductor shortages from what we see from our customers and the impact it has on them adjusting their production.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

My last question is, given the state of the weaker euro, is that changing your plans and how you spread out your investments in R&D, or is it still remaining mostly in Europe?

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

When it comes to our investment in R&D, we have a significant piece that is in Europe. By the way, it's getting weaker, so at the end of the day it makes it cheaper. We have not changed the way we are spreading our long-term investment in R&D across the globe because what we are looking for primarily is capabilities and expertise. We have not amended our strategy on that. As you can see from our results, we have not changed our mind about the level of investment that we are planning to do this year on R&D.

Hamed Khorsand
Principal and Director of Research, BWS Financial

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star then one if you would like to ask a question. All right, we have a question from Chris McIntyre with McIntyre Partnerships.

Chris McIntyre
CIO and Founder, McIntyre Partnerships

Hey, guys. I was wondering if you could just give a comment on how you guys are thinking about timing of buyback and sort of it seemed like you maybe slowed on the buyback pace during the quarter. Just any comments there would be helpful. Thank you.

Sean Deason
SVP and CFO, Garrett Motion

Sure. Well, one of the reasons we were a bit slower is 'cause we reported Q1 earnings, and then we got into the blackout period quite quickly. We were under some limitations in the blackout period in terms of the volumes we could buy back based on regulation.

We did make several amendments to the Series A certificate designation and the credit agreement that allow us for greater flexibility. Again, in these volatile times, we wanna see what cash flows look like in the coming quarters. We'll be making decisions on the level of buyback that we will take based on how the macros develop here in the next coming weeks.

Chris McIntyre
CIO and Founder, McIntyre Partnerships

Okay. Are you guys thinking about like a, an investor day at all, or what, you know, we still don't really have like a commitment to like capital levels and things like that, so I'm just getting a sense of timing then.

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

That's true. We are considering it, and we are reviewing a few options. We'll get back to all of our investors as soon as we have made up our mind about it.

Chris McIntyre
CIO and Founder, McIntyre Partnerships

Okay, great. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Once more, please press star then one if you would like to ask a question. All right, as we have no more questions, I would like to return the floor to management for any closing comments.

Olivier Rabiller
President and CEO, Garrett Motion

Well, thank you very much to everyone that has joined the call today. Indeed, the industry is facing some tough time. As we've demonstrated today, we've executed quite well in Q1, giving us the confidence about our plans for execution for the back end of the year, and to adjust to the external macroeconomic levers that we had to adjust to in Q1 and for the back end of the year.

With that, thank you all, and we'll keep you obviously posted about further instances if we do later on this year on investment day. We have a lot of things to share with everyone that we've shared today with new business, new initiatives, and we are obviously very happy to share more about that.

Operator

Thank you. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

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