Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Garrett's Technology and Investor Day. Thank you for coming over today. It's great to see a full house. I am Cyril Grandjean. I will be your host for today. Before we start, please review carefully the disclaimers, which will govern the presentation today. We will include forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measure. That being said, let's look at today's presenters. With us today, we have Garrett senior leadership team, Olivier, Sean, Craig, Nils, Mark, and Eric will walk you through our strategy and growth path for the coming years. Let's have a quick look into the agenda. During the first part, the team will explain once again our technology differentiation and will touch on our different technologies and product portfolio. During the second part, or, sorry, before the second part, we'll take a 15-minute coffee break downstairs.
When we come back, you will hear Sean Deason and Olivier Rabiller wrapping up. We will move to a Q&A. There will be just one Q&A at the very end of the session. Please keep all your questions until then. We will wrap up at around 11:30 A.M., we invite you to join us for lunch, even more importantly, we invite you to visit our booth. The team here really did a great job in putting together an exhibition, this exhibition has countless Garrett products. You can really see the broad portfolio of products we have on turbo, on display, we have turbos between 1.4 liter and 150 liter, really the full range. We also have numerous zero-emission technologies products. The latest products we've developed and for which we received awards recently.
You can see our E-Cooling solution, compare also with incumbents solutions. You will see our E-Powertrain, and you can see the masterpiece, at least from a logistics perspective, the HanDe E-Axle. Believe me, it wasn't easy to fit that part into this building. It's 600 kilogram and almost 2 meter wide. With that, let me hand over to Olivier to go through the great Garrett story.
Good morning, everyone. That's great to be here this morning. That's great to see a number of faces that have been following the company for a long time. A lot of you may ask, why is it that Garrett is organizing an investor day in what looks like, at least in some regions, like a turmoil for the automotive industry? Well, we want to give you the perspective of where Garrett is going. Since the last investor day that we did in October 2023, a lot of things have happened. You know that the forecast that we are having at that time for BEV is down. Plug-in hybrids, range extended vehicles are up, which means more turbo. There is a higher need for power generation, which means more turbos as well.
At the same time, in 2023, we had shared with you a lot of the new products that we were working on, but at that time it was a lot of mock-ups, it was a lot of PowerPoints, a lot of drawings. Maybe some of you at that time say, "Well, are they really going to do that?" The second reason why we are meeting today is not only because of the macros that are interesting, and we need to update you on that, but because we are very tangible products and I really invite you to visit the booth to see that a lot of them are going into production at the beginning of next year. Next year at this time, we'll be in production with these products.
The last piece, and the last reason why we are together is because we've been doing a lot of announcements for the last 6 months to a year. We felt it was the right opportunity for us to unpack that for you in a cohesive way so that you understand the way all these announcements are building the future of the company. With that, let's remind what is the mission of Garrett. Garrett is a technology disruptor. Our game is to work on differentiated technology. We are not there just to be present in automotive. We are just not there to be present just in industrial. We bring solutions to the marketplace that are different, and where only a few people can either do what we do or understand what we do. That's what Garrett is about.
With that, because you've been waiting for it, let me give you a little bit of the perspective versus what we said in 2023. The picture of the company, you know it. All of that, most of you know what is on the slide. We are working with pretty much all the car makers, all the engine makers around the world. We have a deep reputation of technology disruptor, which means they can rely on us when they plan to expand the portfolio. When we go to them and we say, "We want to expand the portfolio, we have an idea to bring," whether it's E-Cooling, E-Powertrain, we are credible. This you knew it. Maybe one information you did not know, because we did not unpack it that way so far, is that a lot of people consider that we are a pure passenger vehicle company.
Today, already, 46% of what we do in this company is outside of the passenger vehicle industry. Where does it lead us? 6 points we want you to take away from this presentation today. The first one is that this company is set for growth, and I will come back to that. We are planning for a 5% revenue CAGR over the next 5 and 10 years. We are feeding a differentiated portfolio away from turbo. We had already announced in October 2023 that we would be $1 billion outside of turbo by 2030. We confirmed that number, and now we are setting the path for $2.5 billion by 2035. We are ramping up in zero emission mobility. As I've said at the beginning, a number of the technologies we'll be talking about today will be in production by 2027.
It's not a dream, it's not a PowerPoint, it's real. We are expanding into industrial. This was the point of many announcements we've been doing, including last week when we announced our deal with Ingersoll Rand. Something that, at the time in 2023, was not as obvious as today. We are planning to have a revenue on turbo in 2035 that will be higher than 2025. For maybe some of you, maybe nobody, was thinking that we are melting ice cube. The ice cube doesn't melt that much. Last but not least, you are accustomed to the fact now this company is delivering. When we say something, we deliver. We are set up to deliver. Let's start first with revenue growth.
We wanted to highlight a little bit for you what we see as a trajectory for the company versus what was the trajectory two years and a half ago. The CAGR, as I've said before, is 5%, in excess of 5% for 2030, 2035. In light gray on the screen, you have where we were in October 2023. As you can see now, our forecast is higher than that. The point to consider on the right-hand side is that if today 46% is outside of passenger vehicle, it will be in excess of 50% in 2030, and even growing from that point in 2035. Yes, we are on the growth path in our core industry that initially was a little bit struggling. We are having the turbo industry that is quite favorable, and on top of that, our growth initiatives are paying off.
As I've introduced, we are a technology company. We are not going to electric because electric is fun. By the way, most of electric is not differentiated today. The battery is raw material. This is not differentiation. We go for differentiation, whether it's in electric mobility or whether it's in the industrial space. Differentiation, disruption. We do that in a smart way, and Craig, I'm sure, will do a fantastic job explaining to you the way we have been developing and combining building blocks in the company that are differentiated to then do differentiated product and bring that to the marketplace in a very efficient way. Let me pick up just the example there of electric mobility. We talk about E-Powertrain for passenger vehicle, E-Powertrain meaning the full electric motor plus the inverter, plus the gearbox for commercial vehicle, E-Cooling compressors, and fuel cell compressors.
You have on the vertical side, the technologies, the building blocks that we've been developing in the company and the way we apply them across the product portfolio. 6 launches and counting from there in 2027, and a big ramp-up that will happen between now and after 2030. By the way, 60% of the revenue we generate on zero-emission technology will come from something else than passenger vehicle, whether it's commercial vehicle, on highway, off highway, and industrial applications. Let's focus a little bit on the industrial side of the business. We've said a few months back that already in 2025, we were doing in excess of $100 million of revenue on industrial, primarily today on turbo for industrial applications.
Genset, whether it's for data center or whether it's for other kinds of power gen systems that you need to support a grid that is struggling more and more. It goes further than that. The E-Cooling compressor, we get through the detail of the usage, but a lot of usage across data center, building HVAC, and recently announced battery energy storage systems. The one we've announced last week, which is this time not cooling compressor, but air compressor, providing air to manufacturing plants and working on a very interesting product within just around. In excess of $100 million 2025, growing at double digit, in excess of $500 million by 2030. The trajectory from there, Sean will back that, $850 million by 2035. As we said, turbo, stronger for longer. Mark will get through the mechanics of that.
If you combine a lower battery electric vehicle penetration with a higher penetration for plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicle, with the fact that on those vehicles, the percentage of turbo is higher than on pure ICE. Combined to the fact that on top of that, there is more technology needed, and then ultimately combined with the recovery of the commercial vehicle industry that has been in a trough for quite some time, we expect that the industry by 2030 will be 9 million more turbos per year than the forecast we had at the end of 2023. Obviously, we expect to take our fair share of that 9 million units. You know the company for its financials as well.
I think since 2018, we've been able to prove again and again that the setup of the company with a unique variable cost focus, a low CapEx intensity that is specific to us, is positioning us to deliver across the cycle in a very strong way. We are proud. We like performance. That motivates us every day. At the end of the day, a number to keep in mind. Between now and 2030, meaning the next 5 years, we'll generate in excess of $2 billion of free cash flow. Gives a lot of optionality for us and for you as we return a significant part of that to our shareholders. The story of Garrett is a story of transformation.
This may have been missed a little bit, but since a lot of you have been loyal to the company, have been following us for quite some time, you may remember when we spun off in 2018, when at that time, diesel turbos was the biggest part of the revenue of the company. God knows some people may have thought at that point in time, "My God, these guys will collapse. It's moving to gasoline. Diesel is moving away. There is no way they will sustain the margin, and there is no way they will sustain the revenue in this company." We've been transforming the company. We've been doing exactly what we told you in 2018. We've become the leader in gasoline turbocharging. We've been leveraging the advance that we are having on variable geometry technology, and the numbers are showing exactly what we said at that time.
30% variable geometry on gasoline in 2025. We've done all that preserving the revenue of the company and growing it, which means that if you take away the decrease of the diesel industry, and we'll tell you why with Mark, it doesn't matter for us anymore. The underlying growth that we've generated in this company by pushing to gasoline is huge. We've done all that by investing into new capabilities for Garrett in electrification, supporting all the growth now that will carry the company moving forward. Garrett is a transformation story. It has been a transformation story until now, and now it's a transformation story moving forward, and we know how to do that. Just to wrap up my first part, this is probably the slide I like the most.
Think about where we were at the beginning, the top line, and maybe on the top line, we were mostly on the right-hand side. Think now about the field that we have opened to ourselves, where we want to bring differentiation. Once again, we are not doing that to become an industrial business. We are doing that or because we want to become an electric business. It's because we found opportunities to differentiate. A lot of you have heard me saying on conference calls that I am convinced that the speed at which the transformation of the automotive industry has pressured the company to develop technology at scale is an opportunity for some players to disrupt outside of the automotive industry.
This is exactly what we are doing today, and I'm convinced that over the next few minutes, Craig will tell you everything about the way we are driving that. Thank you.
Okay, good morning, everybody. I hope you will recognize that's a great testimonial from our customers on how they've recognized and they value the power of our technology and our innovation. I'm Craig Balis. I'm the CTO for Garrett, and I'm pleased to be back up on stage after nearly three years because we've got a great story to tell you about technology. In 2023, we've delivered not only everything that we said from 2023, but we've accelerated the rollout of new disruptive products and technologies. Most of you, I think, will recognize our right to play and our right to win in turbocharging. You may have questions about our ability to succeed in other areas. You may question if we have the technology, if we have the know-how, if we have the differentiation to succeed and win in things like industrial E-Cooling.
You may have questions on how we roll out our portfolio so quickly and so rapidly. You may have questions about how we do it without doubling our R&D investment. Finally, I know some of you have questions, what is our moat? How do we hold back and stay ahead of competition with all of these new technologies? Over the next few minutes, I'm going to try to explain all of those points to you. Technology differentiation has always been at the core of Garrett's DNA, going all the way back to the start of our business from aerospace in 1955. You've seen it in our mission statement. We focus on technology differentiation that can solve tough problems for our customers in efficiency, in emissions, and deliver to them unique value.
It's always been the engine behind our turbocharger growth, and it will be the engine behind our great future in turbocharging as well. We've grown beyond that. We now have additional technology that we've been investing in and developing for more than 15 years. Oil-free foil bearings, high-speed electric motors, high-speed power electronics, advanced control software. This is now our portfolio of technologies that's powering the step change in our portfolio and accelerating the rollout of our new products, not only for zero-emission vehicles, but also for the industrial space. What you would see from our track record is a great track record of innovation. What you see in the future is we're accelerating that with a step change of rollout of new products. Our customers recognize that, and that's why they turn to Garrett when they're looking for technology leadership. Our turbocharger business was born from aerospace.
A turbocharger is essentially jet engine technology. That's how we started and how we were spun off from aerospace, because of that base in technology. What do I mean by that? A turbocharger is a high-speed turbo compressor. What does that mean? Turbo compressor means you have a turbine wheel connected by a shaft to a compressor wheel spinning very fast. It's spinning very fast because it's pumping air. It's pumping air at high volume and at high pressure ratio. In the case of an engine, which is the diagram you see on the page, that means we have hot exhaust coming out of the engine, spinning the turbine wheel, which by the shaft is then spinning the compressor wheel. The compressor wheel is pressurizing the air into the engine by a factor of almost six times.
You squeeze more air into the engine, you can squeeze more fuel into the engine. You put more fuel and more air in the engine, you get more power. Because it's a smaller engine, it's also more efficient. That's what we mean when we say boosting an engine with our technology. That technology is extremely difficult to master. That turbocharger is spinning at up to 300,000 RPM, 300,000 revolutions per minute. To put that in perspective, when you're driving down the highway, the wheels on your car are spinning at about 1,000 revolutions per minute. Our turbocharger is spinning 300 times faster than that. When that turbocharger is spinning, if you look at the outer edge of the compressor wheel, that outer rim is moving at more than two times the speed of sound. Because it's moving so fast, we have to balance it very precisely.
Spinning at 300,000 RPM, our turbochargers make less vibration than the cell phone in your pocket. It's a lot of manufacturing technology and know-how, in addition to engineering, that goes behind to make that happen. All of these technologies are what power the differentiation in our turbochargers. Those same technologies translate into our new products that we'll show you a bit later. When we talk about Garrett being based on a jet engine technology, this is what we mean. These technologies are very difficult to master. We have mastered them, and we've not only mastered the technology, but we master them at high volume scale and production. Very difficult to do and very difficult for others to duplicate what we can do here. Behind that technology, equally important for us and also a differentiator for us, is how we develop that technology.
To push the boundaries of that technology, we also push the boundaries of the engineering science and the engineering tools. This gives us the tools where we can advance the state of the art of that technology. What you see on this page are just a few of the tools that we work on. We have a portfolio of more than 50 proprietary design, simulation, and AI tools that we use in our design process. To just give you a few examples, we use AI machine learning to optimize the aerodynamics of our compressor wheels. Many of you know that AI, one of the key success factors of anything in AI, is the being able to train it, the massive amounts of data that you need to train AI to make it effective.
We have decades of design experience, we have mountains of test data, and we have the technical experts who can tune and guide those models so we can develop and use those models to not only move faster in our design, but to continue to advance the state-of-the-art of performance. Another example I can give you is multiphysics simulation. What does that mean, multiphysics simulation? When we take those high-speed motors that I'll talk about in a little bit, you need to balance several different physics to make that motor work. Because it's spinning at high speed, there's a lot of mechanical stress on the motor. Because it's very compact, you need to manage the heating and the cooling of that motor.
Because you're optimizing the performance, as you're trying to optimize that mechanical stress and the heating and cooling of the motor, you also need to optimize its electromagnetic performance, how it actually works in terms of converting electricity into motion. You need to be able to simulate all of those things together to be able to optimize the high-speed motors that we use in our products. Those are just a few examples of the things that are in our toolkit and allow us to continue to advance the state of the art in our technology. These are not capabilities that you can develop overnight. These tools, this library of more than 50 tools that we have, are based on decades of designs that we have in our library. They're based on hundreds of design standards, proprietary design standards that we have internally.
They're based on terabytes of proprietary data that we have, and they are tuned and guided by the expert knowhow that we have in our specialists. When you put all of that together, it's a differentiator for Garrett, and it's something that's very difficult for somebody else to duplicate and catch up. We are the leader in turbo, but not only in terms of the size of our business, but in the portfolio that we have in terms of our products and our technologies. That portfolio gives us a unique advantage when we're looking to expand our range of turbochargers and our range of technology. I talked to you about the technology that's in our turbocharger, the turbocompressor technology that's inside, and I've explained to you some of the design tools that we use to advance the state of the art.
We couple those 2 things together with our unmatched portfolio breadth. It gives us a multiplier power that allows us to rapidly expand our turbocharger range and the technology in our turbochargers. What do I mean by that when I say that unmatched portfolio giving us multiplier power? We have in our library thousands of designs of compressor wheels and turbine wheels. We have in our library hundreds of designs of shaft and bearing systems. We have in our library hundreds of materials in our material database. We can reach into that and use that to expand our portfolio. If you look at a product like our MEG turbocharger, if you started from 0, if you started from scratch, it would take you 5 years or more to develop that turbocharger and the line of turbos for that.
In our case, we were able to start from the day we started to the day we had prototypes on the test stands at customers in 12 months. It's not only the cycle time that was fast, the performance we delivered significantly outperformed the incumbent supplier on that engine. We could move fast and we could bring differentiated technology. How did we do that? Well, it's in these tools that I was explaining to you in the prior page. In the case of that MEG turbocharger, I mentioned to you we have AI machine learning tools for compressor aerodynamic design.
We took those tools, we took that database of thousands of our compressor wheels, and we could scale it up because the MEG's a bigger turbo, so we could use those tools to scale up the compressor wheel, and then we could use those tools to tune the compressor wheel to give the right performance for the kind of engines that our MEG turbocharger is used on. We did the same with the turbine wheel, we did the same with the shaft system, and all the rest of the turbocharger. With that, we've been able to move very quickly. You've seen us do it, and you heard Olivier talk about it, our pivot to gasoline, our leadership in gasoline VNT, and now with our MEG turbocharger.
This is a unique advantage for Garrett that comes from the breadth of our portfolio and the decades of experience that we have. Our technology goes beyond turbo compressors. Turbo compressor is a foundation for everything we do, but over the last 15 years, we've been investing in four other technology pillars that you see on this page. These have all been developed organically at Garrett. They've been developed organically at Garrett because we looked outside when we looked for high-speed motors, when we looked for oil-less foil bearings. We could not find them. Nobody had the technology that was at the performance level we needed to scale at the level we needed for our business, so we had to invent them. We've been doing that for 15 years. These technologies have been developed, put into production, and industrialized at high volume scale already by Garrett.
Our oil-free foil bearings were the first to take that technology and put it in high volume mobility scale. Oil-free foil bearing means when your shaft is spinning, instead of spinning on a cushion of, or a film of oil, it's spinning, literally flying on a cushion of air. That's the technology that exists in aerospace. We took it, we re-engineered it, and developed it at mobility scale. High-speed electric motors, you know in automotive companies, they're doing motors, but a typical automotive motor is running at less than 20,000 RPM. We are running at 200,000 RPM, 10 times faster. To drive such a fast motor, we need high-speed power electronics. To control such high-speed power electronics, we need advanced control software. None of those things existed, we had to invent all of those for our technology.
These technology pillars are the basis of all of our products in our portfolio expansion. They're the key to our differentiation, and they're also areas that are very difficult to replicate. You may find some companies that are trying to do some of these things. At Garrett, we do all of these things. We've proven all of these things. We've put them all in production. We've industrialized all of them at scale, and we do all of that together. That's what makes Garrett unique. We leverage those five technology pillars to drive the technology differentiation inside our products. You're going to hear more about that from Nils in his presentation, speaking about our new products. Those technologies are allowing us to drive products that have higher power, lighter weight, smaller size, and better efficiency. Those technology pillars also have another benefit for us.
We are reusing them across our products, we can leverage them to accelerate the expansion of our portfolio. I can show you how that looks on this page. You see the technology pillars. You see different products. These products have very different applications. Fuel cell compressor, pushing the air into a hydrogen fuel cell. Industrial air compressor, providing the hot, clean, high-pressure air to a factory. Industrial E-Cooling, compressing the refrigerant in an HVAC system. Very different use cases, very different applications. They're all built up of the same technology pillars. We've been able to take what we've developed and proven in our fuel cell compressor and use it to rapidly expand our portfolio.
When you saw in the introduction, we talk about our business expanding from motion to power to cooling, I think you see it very well demonstrated on this page, how that works and how we're able to do that with our technology. Some of you have asked me, what is our credibility to move into a space like industrial E-Cooling? Do we have the technology? Are we able to differentiate? Well, the answer is in how we've built up the technology inside those products. We are using technology building blocks that have been developed and proven in our other products to do that. For example, we have a common software platform that we use across all of our products.
It's been developed first in our e-boosting product line, but we use that same software platform inside our E-Powertrain, and we are using that same software platform inside our industrial E-Cooling compressor. Oil-less foil bearings, I spoke about that. We've developed that technology, we put it in production, and we've proven it out in our fuel cell compressors. We've produced and put in the field thousands of oil-less foil bearings. We have hundreds of trucks running on the road demonstrating the performance and the durability of our foil bearings. That provides the platform of the oil-less technology we need for our E-Cooling compressor. Our E-Powertrain, which is starting production next year, has provided the high-speed motor and the power electronics that power that machine. Using these building blocks is how we've been able to move with high credibility and with disruptive technology into industrial E-Cooling.
It won't surprise you that I'm talking regularly to experts in this new field. It's part of my job, and most of us are mostly doing the same. What might surprise you is some of the things that they've told me. Several people in the industry have said, "We know what Garrett can do. We know the technology you have at Garrett." They know our technology pillars, and they said it was only a matter of time before we would enter this space, and now you can see why. To deliver all of these products and technology, we have successfully transformed our R&D organization. We now have more than 500 engineers working on these electrical products, and as we've built up that organization, we've balanced it very carefully because we want to keep our culture of technology differentiation.
We've complemented external hires with also internal transfers and reskilling of our people. You might expect to develop all of those technologies, we would have to double our R&D. We've transformed not only the technology that we develop, but we've transformed how we develop that technology. If you take a look at the turbocharger industry over the last years, it's become much more efficient. It's become more efficient because of the engine consolidation that's happening at our customers. What do I mean by that? I mean, our customers have fewer variants of engines to support the same production volume. Years ago, a high-volume program at a customer may be 200,000 engines a year of a specific variant. Now it's often more than 1 million. That means they're putting more volume on fewer variants. Fewer variants of engines means fewer variants of turbos.
Our turbocharger R&D scales with the number of turbocharger variants. We can now support a bigger turbocharger business with fewer variants, and therefore fewer R&D, while we still continue to extend our technology and portfolio in turbocharging. Some of the tools I talked about earlier give us not only allow us to push the boundaries of technology, but they also give us benefits in cycle time and engineering effort. We can move faster with fewer resources to develop our products. The reuse of those technology pillars that I talked about also drives efficiency in how we do the engineering development. When you put all of those things together, you end up with 3 results. First, we are able to spend less R&D on turbo while continuing to extend our technology leadership and our portfolio in turbo.
Secondly, we are able to fully fund all of the new products for zero emission in industrial applications. Third, we are able to do that by keeping our R&D efficient at less than 5% of revenue. I've tried to explain to you how we're driving transformation in the technology and how we develop that technology at Garrett. Next, Nils and Mark will show you how that transformation is driving the growth of our business. I'll hand it over to Nils now.
Well, good morning everyone. Now that Craig has introduced to you our unique technology pillars, let's talk about our products and how we leverage these technology pillars into our unique, differentiated, and in many ways, disruptive product portfolio. I will start today by introducing you to our differentiated portfolio for the zero emission vehicle space. I'll guide you through our, in many ways, disruptive product portfolio for the industrial space, and then hand it over to Mark, who will talk to you about our turbo business and why we are so confident that turbo is not only there for longer, but will also be stronger for Garrett. With this, let's jump into our zero-emission vehicle portfolio. This comprises our high-speed E-Powertrain, our fuel cell air compressors, and our E-Cooling compressors for mobility. If you look at Garrett, we are all about technical differentiation.
We strive to solve technology challenges with differentiated solutions that provide unique customer value that customers are willing to pay for. That's exactly what we are doing with our zero-emission product portfolio. We have been able, since we met here last time, which was roughly 3 years ago, not only to bring about the products that we had committed to deliver them in terms of designing them and making them real, and you see them downstairs, we've also been relentlessly working to convince global customers. We have convinced multiple customers in the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle space of the value of our product and succeeded to win multiple production awards for our full zero-emission vehicle portfolio, putting us into production in 2027 with all our products. What's more and particularly exciting for me to share today, we are accelerating.
We are seeing more and more customers that understand the value of our product and designing them into the next generation of their vehicles. Not only do we see us on the path to our ambition for 2030 that Olivier was mentioning, we see further acceleration propelling us to more than $2 billion of sales with these products by 2035. Let's look at them in more depth. What you'll find is our portfolio covers the full mobility space. We can do passenger vehicle, we can do CV. We focus on the higher power needs, higher-end applications. Let's start looking at our first product, our high-speed E-Powertrain. You've heard Craig talking about our technology. We are uniquely able to control very high-speed rotary machines. That's exactly what we are applying in our high-speed E-Powertrain. We are applying an e-motor that spins twice as fast as the industry average.
What that does, most importantly, provides much more power in a much smaller E-Powertrain package. What's more, it is a product that needs significantly less material content than existing solutions. You need significantly less copper, less aluminum, less magnets, and less rare earth materials in our E-Powertrain technology, which, as you can imagine, is a big deal in the current geopolitical environment. What's more, if you're reducing material content by 30%, you are reducing the cost of your product significantly versus mainstream product. That's exactly the benefits of our product that are making us successful and that are bringing more and more OEMs to us, mentioning to us that high-speed E-Powertrains are the superior E-Powertrain technology. Let's look at commercial vehicles. That is a general rule that I want to give you today.
The higher the power needs of an application, the bigger the benefit of Garrett's high-speed technology. Obviously, a Class A truck needs a lot of power, that's where we fit and strive the most. What you'll find is that we have unique ability to improve the energy efficiency while reducing the weight of the e-beam, you see it downstairs, which enables us to improve the total cost of ownership of a vehicle. That's the big value we bring for the commercial vehicle space. As you know, total cost of ownership is the key buying criterion for operators of commercial vehicles, we help the OEMs to get there, which explains the excitement that we are seeing from this industry for our commercial vehicle E-Powertrain. We have scored already 2 production awards, both starting next year, with many more to come.
Let me quickly talk about our partner, HanDe Axle. HanDe Axle is part of one of the largest industrial conglomerates in China. This conglomerate owns globally leading commercial vehicle players like Sinotruk or Shaanxi. HanDe Axle already today is by far the largest commercial vehicle axle maker in China, in Asia, and they are quickly expanding well beyond Asia. We have a very strong partner here. We are very proud of this award, and that sets us up for very strong growth in the commercial vehicle space with our E-Powertrain product. Let's move to our next product, the fuel cell air compressor. As you know, this was our first product for the zero emission vehicle space. We, as Garrett, have built the broadest portfolio in the industry.
We have shown that we can produce the most efficient and best performing fuel cell compressors, and we are set up with our portfolio to benefit from this industry as it takes off. As you see, there is still interest for fuel cell technology, especially if you look into Asia or into the commercial vehicle space. What is more important here for today, it provides us with the fundamental basis, experience, and credibility for compression technologies way beyond fuel cell. This is the springboard we are using to venture into mobility cooling compressors and HVAC cooling compressors. Let's talk about our mobility cooling compressor. If you're looking at our e-mobility cooling compressor, what you'll find, it's a centrifugal machine, which is entirely oil-free, leveraging our unique foil bearing technology.
What that does is it provides twice the cooling power of currently existing scroll technologies that is applied in the automotive industry, and it does this with 10% higher energy efficiency and less noise. Let's look at a commercial vehicle example to explain why this matters. A commercial vehicle, as you know, has a very large battery if you want to go electric. The issue with these batteries is they are heating up if you're trying to fast charge them or if you're trying to pull out a lot of energy because you need the power of your Class A truck. That's something where you need cooling. You don't want that battery to get too hot. Think about it. You're the driver of Class A truck going up the hill.
You don't want to be in a situation where you don't get the power of your battery and your electric motor because your battery is too hot. Similarly, you don't want to be the driver who's pulling in to fast charge your battery, then all of a sudden, you cannot fast charge because the battery is too warm. That's where we come in. Current scroll compressor technology does not provide enough cooling power for these application. That's where we, remember twice the cooling power, as Garrett come in. We solve this issue for commercial vehicles with our technology. We do this even with more energy efficiency, saving energy cost and improving total cost of ownership for these vehicles. That's really where the value of our technology comes from and why we are seeing so much interest.
What you'll find here, we are also here with awards. One of them is our partnership with Cling, where we will, starting next year, equip the buses of Yutong Bus, which is the global industry leader for buses with our cooling compressors. With this, I hope you share the excitement that we have for these differentiated products that we have for the mobility space. I would close here this section, but come to an equally exciting section talking about our disruptive products for the industrial space. Talking about the industrial products, and important here to say industrial is not a new business for Garrett. We've been in this business with our industrial turbos for a long time. These industrial turbos, as you know, go into industrial engines and gensets, but also into maritime applications.
We are adding to this now our breakthrough centrifugal cooling compressor that I'll talk about. As Olivier mentioned, we announced last week the launch of our breakthrough air compressors for industrial use that I'll also cover more. If you look today at Garrett, we are already selling or sold in 2025 more than $100 million worth of product into the industrial space with our turbos. We are, as I'll explain to you, very well positioned to benefit from the strong growth that is projected for the foreseeable future in that space. Think about all the gensets that will be needed for AI, but also primary power and other applications. This growth starting next year will be complemented by the launch of our HVAC compressors and our industrial cooling compressors. That is setting Garrett up for major growth with highly attractive business for the years to come.
As Olivier mentioned, we are seeing $500 million-plus in revenue in the industrial vertical by 2030, with further growth beyond, projecting $850 million worth of revenues by 2035 as more and more customers will start adapting our new technologies. Let's look into our product portfolio, starting with the industrial turbo. There, if you think about Garrett is the industry leader for turbo. You heard Craig explaining to you a lot about the different models, the simulation capabilities, and the design capabilities that our company has for turbos. It's that capability that allows us to produce the best performing and most efficient turbos of the industry. It's the very same capability that we are bringing to the industrial turbo space. Our turbos allow industrial engine makers to produce better performing, more fuel-efficient engines.
That has allowed us over the years to position with a lot of the key players in the genset industry. You find some of the names here on the slide. There are many more that we are working with. As you know, there will be strong growth for these gensets. You have the AI emergence with a lot of power needs for primary and backup power, but you also have increasing needs from critical infrastructure or even manufacturing sites that want to have uninterrupted power supply and are installing more and more of these backup power units. There is a lot for Garrett to come with this business, but there is more. We're extremely excited about this product. It's our industrial HVAC cooling compressor, which is a centrifugal, completely oil-free machine using our foil bearing technology. It's actually an interesting story.
We started originally, as you remember, 2.5 years ago, with cooling compressors more geared towards the automotive industry. We had the leaders of the HVAC industry coming quickly after we started with this to Garrett, asking us if we could expand our product offering to also cover the HVAC industry. We looked at it, we saw the fit and the value of our technology also in this space. Today, we have designed this product. We have it in our hands, we firmly believe that with this technology, we as Garrett have the opportunity to set a new industry standard for HVAC compressors. You have a product which is 10% and more energy efficient compared to existing solutions. Put that in perspective. You're talking, when you think about HVAC, about a rather mature industry where it's all about energy efficiency.
They are typically scrambling for 0.5%, 1% energy efficiency. They are moving now to Garrett, off the batch, they get 10% energy efficiency lift. That's huge. What's more, we have the foil bearing technology, so we are inherently oil-free. There is no costly maintenance. There is no performance degradation over time. There is clearly also a startup advantage of our technology that I'll talk about. There is a lot of value in that technology, and we can produce it, as Craig mentioned, with the scale, cost, quality of automotive. As we've been producing these foil bearings for over a decade now with our fuel cells, we have the credibility with the customers to go there. Now, we originally started with our initial partner Trane Technologies, focusing a bit more on the heat pumps and so-called rooftop units within the HVAC space, thinking also about chillers.
Since then, we have spoken and learned much more. We spoke to the key players of the industry, and we are seeing that our technology universally applies across different applications in the HVAC space. We can go to lower cooling powers as, for example, needed in computer room air conditioning units, so-called CRACs, where we are working actively with customers. We have announced the other week that we are working on battery energy storage units with our partner Yutong. Think about battery energy storage as one of these large containers with a lot of batteries to store energy access from renewable production, solar, wind, and so on. We are working with Yutong, which is the global leader in that space, and will start production next year. We've also seen that we can go much further up in terms of the cooling power.
You might have seen downstairs our IRC 68 cooling compressor. It's already a big compressor. We can go much bigger than that, and that enables us to enter the space for large chillers as required in hyperscale data center cooling, and we are actively working on that also with multiple customers. There is truly a huge demand and momentum for this technology. We've been asked a lot of questions about, "Okay, Garrett, but how does that really compare to existing technology?" Here a slide where I want to guide you a bit through that. What you find today in the HVAC space is mostly two compressor technologies. You find so-called scroll compressors, which are typically used for lower cooling power needs. You find for the higher cooling power needs, the so-called mech bearing-based centrifugal compressors.
Compared to both technologies, we have that energy efficiency advantage, which by itself is a huge advantage. There is more. We have that unique foil bearing. We are oil-free. We have no maintenance fees. We are much simpler to integrate into an HVAC system, saving the HVAC players money and time on their engineering side. We are less noisy, there is really a lot of value of that technology when you compare it with existing technologies, and that's why all the key HVAC players in the industry are coming to Garrett and want to work with us and put that product into their portfolio. I hope you share the excitement that we have on this product and see why this has the opportunity to set a new industry standard. Let's come to our latest addition in that space, which is our industrial air compressor.
Now, this one took a slightly different route. We have a very stringent and clear innovation process in our company. We have an incubation team that looks at the different opportunities we might have with our technology. We go through very clear stage gates in terms of what is the industry size, what's the size of the price? Could we fit with our technology? Can we differentiate enough and bring the value that we want to see? Does the business case for that technology hold? On this technology, we checked all the boxes. Our team had come to us telling us they believe they can reconfigure our fuel cell air compressor to a superior solution for industrial air compression, and we went through the processes, we checked the boxes.
We gave a small budget to our team and said, "Go ahead, build a prototype." We took that prototype and put it in 1 of our plants and were blown away by the results. Very, very high energy efficiency, good durability. We took that test data and that experience and brought it to the industry leaders, and that brought us to last week's announcement with Ingersoll Rand that wants to apply that technology across their portfolio. Now, let's talk a bit about air compression and what it really means. Air compressors are used across manufacturing and process industries. Think about industries like life sciences. Think about pharma, food and beverage. All these industry use the air compression for a multitude of applications. We've brought here 1 of the many examples that you find, which are so-called air knives.
What you're doing here is you're using compressed air to clean and dry products that you are manufacturing or processing in your plant. Think about pills being processed like this. Think about food being processed like this. Inherently, the advantage of our technology is we are oil-free. We can provide completely oil-free air for such compressors, which is an inherent benefit. If you think about pharma, food and beverage, you want that inherently clean air. Very important, we do this much more energy efficiently than current technology. It's not so commonly known, 10%-30% of the energy bill of an average manufacturing plant are used for air compression. We are saving 20% of that energy bill for the manufacturing setup.
That's huge benefit. That's the value we see in this technology, and that our partner Ingersoll Rand saw in that technology and why they are rolling it out. What's more, we also see this as a testimony for the optionality in our technology portfolio. We believe there is much more we can do with our compression technology and our technology building blocks. That's where our stringent innovation and incubation process comes in. I can assure you we are working on multiple additional venues. We will make sure that whatever we focus on are the right topics which create the highest shareholder value. With this, I would close the industrial section. I hope you share the excitement that we have towards this business, which really has the opportunity not only to bring a lot of growth, but also transformation for us.
I would hand it over at this point to Mark, who will talk about our turbo business and why we see much more revenue for longer from that business.
Morning. It's great to hear the customers talk about how we solve their problems. I'm responsible for the turbo business at Garrett, the backbone of Garrett. Over the next few minutes, I'm going to speak to you not just about the resilience of the turbo industry, but the growth story that we see for turbo. Turbo covers a broad range of applications. It's used everywhere internal combustions are used, engines are used, from small passenger vehicles to large commercial trucks, tractors, to big industrial generators. Turbo brings more power, better fuel efficiency, and helps lower emissions. Olivier already pointed out to you that for us, we're not just the number 1 player, but in 2035, we see the turbo business for Garrett bigger than it was last year. Let me unpack that a little bit for you. Back in 2023, when we forecasted the turbo business, we still forecasted growth.
If you look in the middle for 2030, we now see a higher growth than we did three years ago. A part of that is driven by the macros that Olivier highlighted, where we see more hybrids. Battery electric vehicles are not growing as fast as once anticipated, and there are more hybrids in passenger vehicles, and those hybrids are turbocharged. We also see growth on commercial vehicle. Olivier mentioned to you that when we look at our business today, we are a little more than 50% passenger vehicle. Commercial vehicle, industrial, and aftermarket, those businesses are growing. By 2030, those businesses will be more than 50% of our revenue, creating the long-term resilience that's going to position us for growth all the way to 2035. I'll go into those macros just a little more.
Olivier mentioned to you we see 9 million more turbos on the industry by 2030 compared to what we said in 2023. Big portion of that is coming from the reduced outlook on battery electric vehicle growth. We now see that growth replaced by hybrids. Those hybrids are turbocharged, and we see more turbocharged hybrids than we did 3 years ago. We see higher technology, more VNT technology on those turbocharged hybrid engines. On a commercial vehicle space, we are at a cyclical low right now, but the demand for infrastructure and the rising demand for energy, particularly on data centers, is driving continued growth on commercial vehicle out to 2030. We've got very favorable macro conditions for Garrett. When we look at our portfolio, we cover this wide range of applications, but we don't cover them with one technology.
We're solving customer problems. Those applications have different needs. Could be power, could be fuel efficiency, could be lower emissions, could be a combination of all of them. They require different technologies in our portfolio to address them, and we've been investing in just that. When we look at Garrett, we have the broadest turbo technology portfolio in the industry. We continue to invest in expanding that portfolio. You've seen the MEG downstairs. We also continue to invest in deepening the technology within that portfolio. In 2022, we launched the E-Turbo. On this application, E-Turbo is basically a motor on a turbocharger, and that motor helps the turbocharger accelerate faster, but it can also recover energy and put it back into the electrical system on a hybrid. This year, we launched an E-Compressor. It may sound simpler.
It's just a motor with a compressor. It can be used in conjunction with a turbo, like the example you see on the right-hand side with Mercedes-Benz on the S-Class. Using an eCompressor on this engine enables faster throttle response, which improves the drivability and the driver feeling for that vehicle. When we look at these investments, obviously strengthening the portfolio is leading to the greater business wins that you see. It's also leading to something else. Because the turbo is such an integral part of the engine, because it's such an expensive component on the engine, often sourcing awards are made well in advance of the vehicle launch. This is why we can already forecast out to 2028 that more than 80% of our revenue is contracted, which gives us good long-term visibility.
Part of that is coming from the growing scope we have on CV, where we've expanded the portfolio into MEG. Part of that is coming from the technology investment we've made on passenger vehicle into e-boosting. There are some examples you can already see. In the U.S., you have 2 examples on the screen. The first is the Chevrolet Silverado with a 3-liter diesel with a Garrett turbo. This is a benchmark for fuel efficiency on a full-size pickup truck. The second example, the Dodge Ram 1500 RHO. They replaced the V8 with a 6-cylinder turbocharged engine that has faster acceleration, better fuel efficiency. These are real examples today. This is the benefit that Garrett Turbo technology is bringing. Hybrids need them, too. We talked about the macro growth on hybrids. We talked about the turbocharged growth on hybrids.
There's a real example here that was announced at Beijing Auto Show just a few weeks ago. Volkswagen announced the ID. AERO. This vehicle has 1,000 miles of range, more than 1,600 kilometers. 250 miles of that come from the battery, which means 75% of the range of that vehicle comes from the turbocharged engine with the electrical powertrain. This means that the engine is responsible not just for powering the vehicle when the battery is dead and ensuring it has full capability, but it's also responsible for the range of the vehicle, which means the more efficient that engine is, the more the turbocharger enables the efficiency of that engine, the more range it has. On this application, it's using a Garrett VNT. It's not the first for it. In 2017, Volkswagen launched the first VNT mass production engine with a Garrett turbo. We've got a long history with them.
It's not ending with just the VNT technology, but we already see customers looking at our e-boosting technology to enable the next wave of fuel efficiency. Let me tell you a little bit about that. China is leading the way. In China, the customers recognized a long time ago that in hybrids, the engine played a key role in extending the range. They started paying attention to the efficiency of the engine. It's a bit of a strange phenomenon, but in China, in showrooms, always advertise the brake thermal efficiency of the engine, which many people would wonder, why are people paying such attention to an engineering definition? Well, a few years ago, the brake thermal efficiency of a gasoline engine was less than 40%. What this means is more than 60% of the energy in the fuel was wasted.
The first wave of range-extended electric vehicles had efficiencies in the low 40s, 42%. Customers who are paying attention, they always made technology investments to get to the next level. We started to see 43%, 44% enabled in part by VNT technology. There's a third wave coming where OEs are looking for benchmark fuel efficiency, levels that have never been reached before in mass production, approaching 50%. They require advanced combustion, and that advanced combustion is enabled by high technologies on the turbocharger side. In China, OEs value Garrett because our technology delivers performance for them. It's not just on passenger vehicle, but on commercial vehicle as well. We've got long-standing relationships with those OEs, and we continue to work closely with them. Let me tell you a little bit about diesel. Olivier touched on this earlier.
Back in 2018, diesel was about 40%, 45% of our revenue, and it was a risk because in Europe, passenger vehicle diesel was on decline. What we now see is most of that passenger vehicle diesel business has gone away, and what's remaining is light commercial vehicle. In light commercial vehicles, these are smaller diesel engines. The battery electric penetration on light commercial vehicle is fairly low, lower on passenger vehicles in general. It's a global business. It's 99% turbocharged, and Garrett is a leader in this industry. When we look at these applications, we already see them extending five, 10 years into the future. The decline we saw on small diesel engines is over. The diesel engine business that we now have will remain, and will remain resilient for the foreseeable future. Which brings me to commercial vehicles. It's a great business.
Customers here appreciate the value we bring in total cost of ownership, whether it's delivering more power to help the end user do more work, or more efficiency to reduce their fuel operating costs, or lower emissions to help them operate in restricted zones. Commercial vehicles value the benefit of turbocharger technologies. We see in this industry favorable macros, construction growth driven by infrastructure, mining driven by electrification and the demand for higher materials, and in power generation driven by demand for more and more energy. In all of these commercial vehicle industries, Garrett is either number 1 or number 2 player. We're well-established and have long-term relationships with the industry leaders in those particular verticals we show here. With this, I hope that you can believe me when I say to you that turbo is a resilient industry for us, but it's also a growth opportunity for Garrett.
We are well-positioned to continue growing and be stronger for longer. With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to tell you what that means for the aftermarket.
Good morning. It is great to have the opportunity to tell you more about Garrett aftermarket business this morning. As Mark just highlighted, the turbo industry is going to get bigger for longer. This, along with the extension of our portfolio that Nils highlighted as well this morning, will directly benefit our aftermarket business. That business, which is already a great business, will be even more exciting in the future, and that is what I want to show you here. Let us start with a few facts about our business. We are the number one turbo brand in the aftermarket. We have more than 150 million vehicles and engines all around the world, on and off-road, that are fitted with Garrett turbochargers.
This number is only going to get bigger with the addition of all the vehicles that are manufactured and fitted with Garrett chargers in the different OEM plants. We have a very strong brand, attracting a lot of customer loyalty. Okay, the tattoo that you see at the center, that's not mine. Okay. That's not my forearm, but that's actually one of our customers. It's true. This creates a lot of value for us in the way we sell and we go to market there. The third thing that I'd like to highlight is that this is very much already a commercial vehicle business. More than 65% of our revenue come from light commercial vehicle, commercial vehicle, on and off highway, and industrials, and this number is only going to get bigger.
If we take the example of the industrial turbos, the MEG line that we are launching and ramping up with customers, for $1 of revenue generated on the OE side, we're getting $4 of aftermarket. That's the power of this range in terms of the aftermarket revenue. Now, let me tell you what are the ingredients that we use to run this business. The first thing to know is that turbo repair is an unfrequent, expensive, and critical repair. It's not like changing brake pads or a wiper. Okay? It is like heart surgery for the engine, and if you do heart surgery, you don't want to do it too many times. Okay?
That is why there is a lot of value in getting through this process of repair with a turbo that fits the requirements that were designed when the vehicle was launched, when the vehicle left the factory where it was built. We have developed a range of product offering that cover the entire life cycle of the vehicles from the time they leave the factory to 15-20 years, when we talk about passenger vehicles, and even longer, 30-40 years, when we talk about commercial vehicles or industrial engines. This range that you see from new, remanufactured, what we call Reman MaxLife for the older vehicles, share common ingredients. Original specifications, original components, using the same manufacturing plants as the OE turbos that are manufactured for OEM customers.
All of these create the performance, the reliability, the durability, and the quality that customers expect from the Garrett brand. As the turbo aftermarket is a very different business from the traditional wear and tear automotive aftermarket business, the turbo manufacturers have mostly focused, because it is a difficult product to develop and launch, and it is expensive as well, they mostly focus on their installed base. We serve mostly our installed base, and the other turbo manufacturers mostly serve their own installed base. Now, they have, and we have as well, developed a network of dedicated distributors that are focused on turbo and that are playing a big role into this aftermarket by assembling all the content from the different manufacturers and providing the services and the products to the garages and the mechanics that use these turbos for repair.
This is a very unique model that is very turbo-specific, that allows these distributors to be the extended arms of the turbo manufacturers, and they hold the inventory, they do the sales, they do the product marketing, they do the training, the education, and all the advice that mechanics and garages expect when they do a turbo repair. This is an efficient model that allows us to unearth great margins and that we want to leverage for the future development of our portfolio. In Garrett Aftermarket, we don't just do service replacement. We work on some very exciting initiatives as well. Starting on the left with performance. We have a range of high-performing turbos that we have developed and manufacture to fit the needs of performance enthusiasts and amateur racers. These turbos deliver from 250 to 4,000 horsepower.
If anybody's interested into an engine upgrade, I think we have a solution for you. Just come at our booth after this presentation, we'll find a way. This is the most complete performance lineup that exists for these amateur races and performance enthusiasts. We are also active in motorsports. Professional OE motorsports teams come and see us, and this is not a sponsorship initiative. We run this as a business, and we provide the technology and the support in turbo so that this team can win. We have been the technical partner of Ferrari F1 team since 2013. We have as well supported all the teams that have won the 24 Hours of Le Mans for the past 26 years. We expect in the next few days when the 2026 race will take place to add a 27th consecutive win into that.
It's just to show you the support and the technology that we can give to these professional teams, and I invite you again to see on our booth, we have some very interesting products to show, namely a Ferrari F1 turbo, not from this season. Confidentiality, of course, forbids us to show anything from this season, but from the last one, which is a great piece of technology. Lastly, we don't just do the aftermarket or the motorsports or the performance, but we look after some areas, some customers that do not have all the sophisticated needs in terms of development of a traditional automotive business, OEM. We are active in powersports. Powersports mean recreational vehicles, side-by-sides, jet skis, snowmobiles, where we are supporting these customers, and this is an area where the turbo intake is growing and represents another one for additional growth.
What I would like you to take away is that we have great opportunities for growth in our aftermarket business. Secondly, we have a model that is agile, that is efficient, that allows us to create great margin. Combination of growth opportunities, great margin, will make it an even greater business, and that's why we love it. Thank you for your attention. Now I turn it on to Cyril for further announcements. Thank you.
Thanks. Thank you, Eric. Thank you. A big thanks to all the team for a very insightful presentations. We now have a 15-minute break downstairs. Please be back at 10:45. Thank you
[Break]
All right. Hope everyone's caffeinated and ready to go. I hope you're super excited like I am about the growth trajectory this company has. Over the past 5 years, as Craig and Olivier and team were explaining, we've been working relentlessly to drive what now is turning into a growth story, and that is what's so exciting. More importantly, it's a diversified growth story. It's a shift, and it's an acceleration into new industries within our financial framework that will deliver profit and most importantly, and nearest and dearest to my heart, cash flow. We're going to do that as we drive this diversification forward into all these new industries, and we're going to talk a little bit about that. We saw in the earlier presentations the addressable market, what it meant, how it is.
With this diversification in sales, we are broadening and addressing new industries, which will in turn continue. This is not the end. This is the beginning. If we think about and put it all together, this slide is my favorite slide. It's my favorite slide, like it was Olivier's, but this one has the addressable industries on it. This is what's so exciting because this is just where we sit today. As several of the presenters alluded to, there is much more opportunity as we move forward. As we sit today, we see diversified sales growth that will be profitable and cash generative within our financial framework. Let's talk a little bit more of that. You've seen this slide earlier.
A lot of that growth is really exciting coming from the industrial space, which we see to be a half a billion dollars by 2030 and growing at a 20% plus CAGR. That's not the only thing that's growing. Everything else is growing. Mark talked about turbo. We looked at all the other verticals we operate in. It's extremely exciting, we are now a growth story, a 5% CAGR over the next decade that again, will be delivering profitability and cash flow within our financial framework. We've updated the ASP slide for you because I know it's important for your modeling. What you're seeing here are a few new products, but most importantly on the industrial level on the slide, the ranges are really wide.
We alluded to some of the cooling and the E-Powertrain solutions that are going for commercial vehicle and larger industrial applications. When we start to really look at things, the size of the machines we're dealing with at the upper end are massive and thus driving a massive ASP. I'm sure we'll have more on that as we proceed in the next 5 years. Garrett, I just have to remind everyone, is a high-performance company. It's high performance in its operations, but it's also a highly performing financial company. We deliver our financial results solidly and despite challenges across cycles. We've proven this time and time again in what has been a somewhat static environment in terms of overall vehicle production since COVID, but we have continued to deliver, and now we're really start seeing a firm path of growth.
You see our financial framework on the left-hand side of this slide, and we will adhere to that as we move forward, delivering our margins within the framework like we have today, maybe better, depending on how things go, and it will be cash generative. We will continue to operate in a CapEx-light environment. Let's talk a little bit about how we do that. Okay. It starts off with what Olivier talked about. We operate in an environment where we are not vertically integrated. What that does is drive a large supply base that we manage, and most of that supply base is in best-cost countries. In turn, we are also assembling and keeping only the quality critical and trade secret manufacturing processes in house. That allows us to constantly optimize as we're launching and innovating new products to do things better, more with less resources.
That all translates into a 5% year-over-year productivity that we're seeing from both supply base and operations. That also translates into our variable cost structure greater than 80%. That allows us to flex our cost structure as we deal with some of the cyclical impacts that we have seen in the past, such as tariffs, such as geopolitical disruptions, such as inflation, such as stagnant volumes. We've consistently delivered an increased margin over the past three to four years because we're able to flex our cost structure. Along with that, translates into a capital-light model, less than 3% of CapEx of sales. That also makes us nimble, and as you will see when you start to compare our adjusted EBIT to others, makes us superior and top of the industry. It doesn't stop there.
As Craig talked about, we also push down into our RD&E and SG&A. We are constantly looking to do more with less and be as optimized as we possibly can. Craig gave us some good examples of that on his slide. Let's talk about how we compare. As I mentioned, when we look at CV-focused peers of ours, we're at the top, right where we should be. At the same time, our free cash flow conversion is still much higher. These are very powerful numbers, and this is just where we sit today. If you take all the benefit that we're going to see as we go forward and grow at a 5% CAGR over the coming 10 years, to me, that means there's still a lot of valuation upside, especially as we see this industrial opportunity really taking hold.
Half a billion of industrial sales by 2030, growing at a 20% CAGR. All right? Over 50% of our revenue coming from non-passenger vehicle by 2030, which will expand as we move forward into 2035. For me, what you see here is just the start. By the way, these are based on today's stock price, effectively. In my mind, we still have plenty of upside. What have we been doing up to this point? Well, as you all know, we've been returning value to shareholders. This is a key component of our capital allocation strategy, and up to this point, we've returned that through share buyback and dividends and some occasional small de-levering. We're below 2 times net leverage. We're happy there. It's a great place to be. We've bought back 44% of our shares since 2023. 44%.
I wish we could've bought back more now that I think about it, but we did what we could. All right? We initiated a dividend that was competitive at the time, but still, it's another way to return value to shareholders. We expect to continue to stay within this framework of returning 75% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through buyback and dividend as we move forward. For me, this is an amazing story, and it's underpinned by growth. Growth amongst a diversified set of new industries that will continue to expand. This is what makes it so exciting for me. I think I'm going to now hand it over to Olivier to wrap it up.
Thank you, Sean. I like the slide with the comparison to the other industry sectors, showing the runaway. In this company, we are not excited about what we have done so far, as busy as we have been for the last eight years. We are excited about what's coming. This is what motivates us every day. This is why we wake up. Just to wrap it up, I'm coming back to a few points. It's clear that we are expanding outside of our base.
We are learning, we are finding more opportunities. It's real, as you can see, with a lot of SOPs, a lot of products that will get into the field over the next two years. I will not repeat everything that has been said by both Neets and Craig on this one. Just to remind you the six points we want you to take away from the presentation today. Growth, differentiated technology portfolio on track with what we said and accelerating after 2030. Ramping up zero emission technology for mobility. It's real. You will see the products downstairs. Expanding outside of the automotive industry in very promising industry sectors that quite frankly, we are not having all in mind a few years back.
A turbo industry that is stronger for longer, the 2035 bigger than 2025 gives you a little bit of the perspective, and consistently delivering because this company and the team I have with me is all about performance. Few more numbers before we close it. To remember for you for 2030, we understand that modeling is quite important for all of you. $5 million sales, in excess of $500 million sales in industrial. More than 50% of sales outside of the passenger vehicle industry. $2 billion or in excess of $2 billion on Turbo PV because it keeps on growing. We are not just moving away from that side. It's just we harvest the growth that is coming our direction, and we deliver more technologies. In excess of $2 billion of revenue on light commercial vehicle, commercial vehicle industry and aftermarket, and the $1 billion on the rest.
I hope it was the right rendezvous after 2023 so that we bring it back, show you the reality of the numbers, show you a perspective, and convince you about the investment and the runaway of that investment into Garrett. With that, I think we'll get to the Q&A session, and Cyril will come and organize the Q&A.
Thank you, Olivier. Now, while we are moving the seats, I invite all the presenters to come on stage for the Q&A. During the Q&A, if you have a question, please raise your hand, and Chris will be on one side of the room, I will be on the other side. Thank you.
Very good. Thank you.
Cool.
Yeah. Got it.
Okay. We have the first question.
Hey, guys, it's Jake Shull from BNP. Thank you for walking us through the various business lines. As you shift more into a commercial and industrial-focused company, can you talk about how you see your margin profile shifting over the next five and 10 years?
Shall I answer?
You might want to start.
All right. Well, as we mentioned in the deck, there could be a trend of margin expansion. We're cautious about this. Our margins are already very good today at 14.9% as a midpoint guide for 2026. For sure, as you start to see that mix shift over time, especially post-2030, as the industrial piece really starts to kick in, we should see some opportunity there.
Thank you. As we look at the industrial revenue targets, the $500 million in 2030 and $850 million in 2035, does that just cover your currently announced partnerships, or are you assuming additional wins going forward?
That's a very good question. It covers what we have been announcing so far. We may have some other ideas. We want to just get through those ideas in the robust process that we have for innovation before we get further.
Theoretically, if you came out in six months and announced another HVAC partnership, that would represent an area of upside.
No, let me put it back. This is our view of the opportunity we have on HVAC today. 2030 is tomorrow. That industry doesn't go always at the speed of the automotive industry. What I would say is that we keep on working on some other opportunities to develop our product range, and this is obviously not in our forecast because we did not commit to it yet.
Thank you.
Thank you, Jake. We now have the second question from James.
Hi, thank you. James Mulholland from Deutsche Bank. Again, to follow up on Jake's question there, appreciate you giving us that average sales price breakdown. As we think about margins, both current and future state, should we anticipate that some of these products are going to weigh on it a little bit as production ramps up, or based on your current cost structure, manufacturing footprint, is it fair to say that they should be accretive relatively out of the gate?
Well, we keep on with the statement we made from the beginning. Everything you've seen today is at or accretive to what we have today, and that's the spirit of it. The model that drive that is the same, which is we are not planning to turn with new innovation from low vertical integration. We are leveraging quite a bit the supply base. We have a supply base development team that nobody else is having at the same size. It's broader than the turbo industry, by the way. It's going across. That's the feedback of our customers. We'll keep on the same model, which is low vertical integration, flexibility, leveraging the suppliers each time they have the scale and the capabilities that are better than we have, and keeping that flexibility. We are operating in a world. The automotive world is cyclic.
We've set up the company, and it's not one year of work, it's tens of years of work in a way to resist through the cycles. It happens that we are a little bit a special animal in that respect in the automotive world, but we have the model we think fits the automotive world. When we get into the other areas where we are, we recognize you have some cycles as well. The model that is successful today, we think is the model that we need to keep on for the future. We are spending a lot of time today at re-questioning our investment, our CapEx, the working capital necessary to go after these opportunities. As you've seen with Eric, even the cost to serve in the aftermarket, which is very specific to us versus all the automotive aftermarket.
All of that is at the forefront of what we study every week. There is no point about us leaving that model.
Great. Thank you. Then just as a quick follow-up, with that material free cash flow generation that you outlined, beyond shareholder returns, of course. You're looking to enter into what I would call a couple of adjacencies. Is there an opportunity there for M&A? Would you look to acquire other technologies, maybe smaller companies that already have an established customer relationship to meet those targets? Conversely, if you continue to do it all in-house, should we expect a fairly material increase to R&D over the next year or two, and then probably it steadies out after that? Is that the right way to think about it?
These are two separated questions in my view. There is the way you develop your organic revenue. For that, I think Craig has done quite a good job highlighting the way we want to stay agile. We are in a world where now the point is about speed and agility. We are learning a lot, as you've seen from Asia, as an example. It's very good for us to be recognized as a winner in Asia because I'm convinced that you need to be winning to a certain extent in China to be relevant to the rest of the world. What applies to Garrett applies to all the industry. That's one piece.
Which is the way we win is about using or optimizing our RD&E that we put behind because it's not only money, but it's time, it's cycle time, it's the speed at which we answer the customer. One of the key reasons why we want this big program on commercial vehicle is that we were able to turn around a new idea and a new design in 48 hours. Meaning working at the same clock speed as the best in the world. Time, money, resources, all of that gets together. You need to be an efficient and agile company. That's for our organic growth. So far, we've not seen a limitation, or we've not set ourself a limitation into the budget. It's just that we want to make sure we get the right returns on what we invest. Okay? That will always be our limit.
Do we have the right returns on what we invest in RD&E? Your question about inorganic, it's true that when you look around, we have more inorganic opportunities. I would say we've always been, and it's not like we've done nothing. We've not done deals, but we've been very active since day one to study, screen, analyze opportunities on the M&A side. I'm sure at some point some will come. We are planning the same rigor about the M&A. Personally, I'm not a big fan about going out there and just buying a company for technology, especially a small one. I think I've explained that several times, and I think reality has proven us right. When you buy a small company, and we have stories of a few companies being bought close to us in Switzerland in the middle of the Valais.
You buy a company for technology, a company that's doing $50 million revenue. If you're a big company, the first thing you do is destroying that industry or that business because you buy small entrepreneurial house, you integrate into a big company. You don't want their business, you want their capabilities, so you don't care about their business. A small business compared to a big business usually doesn't resist in the long term. The guys that have been creating that wonderful small jewel, at the end of the day, they are leaving because they don't recognize themselves into a big company. You've been spending money for capabilities, and then you've been destroying that. I'm always very careful about the point of And there are countless examples in the automotive industry about doing that.
It doesn't mean that there should not be a company with scale, you've said channel access for us when we get to new industries and everything. I mean, the scope is quite wide, we go at that in a very disciplined way.
Great. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone. I'm going to follow up with another question on margins. You guys have, over the last few years, guided to 25% incremental margins, if I remember correctly, maybe 25%-30% incremental margins, which would imply maybe 300-500 basis points of margin expansion over the next 10 years. Call it 30-50 basis points a year. Looking at the makeup of the growth that you're talking about here, as a more industrial and commercial analyst, I would think that the industrial stuff should be very accretive to margins. You don't have the same price give back dynamics that you do in autos or anything like that. The value proposition that you're presenting there should demand a pretty good premium from your customers. Why wouldn't you be able to continue to generate that 25%-30% incremental margins on growth over the next 10 years?
That is the model. We need to see how the industrial opportunity evolves. Where we're looking right now, we don't necessarily see a significant footprint expansion needed. Actually expanding the footprint isn't really a big CapEx for us, it's more the lines. A lot of the lines and the tooling are customer-funded. That's, again, part of our capital-light model. Certainly we would expect incremental sales to come in at margins that are accretive, especially in the industrial space.
It is just at the end of the day, it will all vary depending on the, I hate to use that term that the finance team loved, which is mix. At the end of the day, it depends on the mix, and we have a lot of things in the water, and not everything will work at the same speed. We need to recognize that. Directionally, yes.
I would think that over the next 10 years, mix should be a plus, not a minus. Maybe just on the zero-emissions stuff. You guys have announced a couple of projects that start production in 2027. Can you talk about the path to $1 billion in 2030 and then to $2 billion in 2035? How we should think, I guess the first 5 years, the cadence of how that progresses, what kind of revenue you're assuming in 2027 from those projects, if you're prepared to disclose that yet, what the cadence is as we get to $1 billion from that in 2030? Thanks.
The 2027 is the beginning of production. Giving today, if you shift by 1 month or 2 months during the year, it can have quite a big impact on the way we plan for it. I don't think we'll give numbers right away on this 1. 1 thing I'd like you to keep in mind is that 5 years ago we gave a target 2 years and a half ago, we gave a target for 2030. Today, we are realizing that that target sits somewhere on the steep part of the curve. Quite frankly, depending on the way the curve is looking at, there can be a little bit of movement around that. The slope is steep. That's what you need to keep in mind.
That's where you see the acceleration, in particular post-2030. It's important to also note that all the announcements we're making, we're filling up to that 1 billion target. When we make an announcement, it's not incremental to the billion target. When we do get to that point, of course, we would look to communicate it. At this stage.
We are into the automotive industry, so at the end of the day, it's like for turbos. If I have one turbo on a car, I cannot put one at the front and one in the trunk to increase my revenue. Okay? That's the same. Once you are on an axle, you're becoming a prisoner of the platform success, the success of your customer and everything. There are usually viability around that. What we are giving you today is the best estimate we have.
We have one more question from Eric.
Eric Gregg, Forterra Advisory. Great presentation so far today. Thank you everyone. Just a few questions. 1, on E-Cooling compressor addressable market opportunity of potentially $7 billion that was mentioned. 2 things. 1 is how much has residential HVAC been thought about in terms of that addressable market opportunity? Also, can we be thinking that given the success in turbos at over 50% win rates, can we be looking forward to those types of win rates in these addressable market opportunities for the company?
Maybe I answer this one first. I'm super optimistic considering the traction we are having from all the customers spending a lot of time getting to us and lining up tests and everything for the product going forward with much more use case than what we had in mind at the beginning. At the beginning, we are not having in mind to go to CRACs. We are not having in mind to go to the super big chillers with product that are even bigger than what you have on the ground there. I'm enthusiastic. It's a little bit too early to commit to a win rate because I don't even know.
Even when we say it's a $7 billion addressable opportunity, quite frankly, we are much less mature at sizing up that opportunity versus the turbo industry, where we know all the engine programs, all the customers, and everything else. I would take that still with a pinch of salt. Maybe it's bigger. Let's see where we go, and let's be humble like we've been every time. We'll go at that one by one, win, develop relationship with customers, prove the case, launch, and so on.
Yes. Excuse me, coming to the question on residential. Look, what I mentioned in my presentation is true for us. We like to focus on where we are adding most value with our products, especially in the commercial and in the industrial HVAC space. That's where people focus a lot on total cost of ownership and energy consumption. Whereas residential are typically smaller machines. There's much more competition from Asia. That's why we are choosing our battles and are starting in the industrial and commercial space. That does not prevent that in the future we might look differently at this, but if we look at where we are the best fit and where we see the best returns for what we are doing, that's definitely that industrial and commercial space.
1 follow-up question. In terms of the CAGRs that you put out today, which were great and robust. Given that the commercial seems to be the highest potential CAGR over the next number of years, and given that that's the smallest part of the business right now, should we be expecting your top-line growth rates to, in theory, be accelerating over the next number of years? Are we going to see a big step-up here in the next certain period of time and then some kind of slow down? What do you think the complexion of that CAGR growth is going to look like over the next 5 to 10 years? Just high level.
Quite frankly, when we look at the next 10 years, when we did the computation, it was pretty stable in our forecast today, okay? With all the precautions that we are taking around it. It's true that it's smaller. It's having a higher CAGR. We are starting from a smaller base. We are also seeing growth on the turbo side. When you combine everything together, today, I would say we are at a point in time where we say it's pretty much more of a straight line if you put all the ins and out. Depending on the success we see on some of that, if we are more successful than what we anticipate, it can already get steeper because the ASP is higher, the volume is lower. We'll see where we go with that. At this stage, it's pretty much a continuous line.
Mason Boren, AWHL Capital. Eric, I think you talked about the aftermarket opportunity in MEG. I was wondering if, as you shift more into industrial, could you talk about the original product sale versus the aftermarket revenue stream opportunity across the different industrial applications?
Right. That's a very good question indeed. For MEG, which is bigger turbos, where we understand the technology there quite well. As I said, the aftermarket opportunity is much bigger than the OE revenue that is generated. Basically, you install the base and then there's a lot of maintenance operations that are coming every year, every 6,000, 10,000 hours of operation or more, that create opportunities for servicing these turbos. When we service these turbos, there is an element of selling components and service to the users of these industrial engines that will create a lot of revenues there. When it comes to HVAC systems, industrial HVAC or air compressor, our level of maturity of understanding the aftermarket of these devices is not at the same level. There will be opportunities for sure.
We're working with the partners that we engaged to frame our approach to the aftermarket of these devices. How we'll go to market, because an important component for servicing the aftermarket of this device come from the HVAC manufacturers themselves, okay? The OES channel is quite significant there. There will be some aftermarket revenues, and we've planned for that.
Fair to say that cooling would be the largest one, more than the mobility zero emission technologies.
I would say it's too early to say that. It's too early because, let's keep in mind that the point that Eric was making on industrial turbo is something we need to keep in mind. We are today, at the same time, building the install base, which is only 1 for 4 revenue opportunity in aftermarket. Something we did not say today, that was something we reported in our previous earnings, is that as we work on the OE side to put our turbos on new engines, we are working with Eric's team to identify re-sheet opportunities for the install base that has been served by some other players, that we start to grow faster that install base and replace already the competitor product. We are trying to jumpstart that.
It's not easy, because it requires, on the one hand, you need to have the best performing machine. On the other hand, you need to have a machine that's just matching what's in the field. We have two different products. We are doing that at the same time. We are also developing a network of distributors that are suited for that industrial stuff. I'm very pleased with the progress we are seeing there and the traction we are getting outside of the OE space. Quite frankly, for cooling, I would say we are learning. It's a different channel access. We have a lot of the capabilities internally to react to that if needs be. Today, we are relying on our partners to learn more about that industry.
Thank you.
We have one more question. Do we still have questions on that side? No more questions? This is concluding our Q&A for today. Thank you very much for all your questions. Please give a big round of applause to all our presenters on stage.