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Earnings Call: Q3 2014

Aug 27, 2014

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Fiscal 2014 Third Quarter Earnings Results and 1st 6 Months of Fiscal 2014 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Your host today is Laurence A. Mendel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of HIFO Corporation.

Certain statements made in this call will constitute forward looking statements, which are subject to risks, and contingencies. HEICO's actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by those forward looking statements as a result of factors including, but not limited to, lower demand for commercial air travel or airline fleet chains or airline purchasing decisions, which could cause lower demand for our goods, services, product development or product specification cost and requirements, which should cause an increase to our cost to complete contracts, governmental and regulatory demand, export policies and restrictions, reductions in defense, space or homeland security spending by U. S. And or core customers or competition from existing and new competitors, which could reduce our sales, our ability to introduce new products and product pricing levels, which could reduce our sales or sales growth, product development difficulties, which could increase our product development costs and delay sales our ability to make acquisitions and achieve operating synergies from acquired business customer credit risk, interest and income tax rates and economic conditions within and outside of the aviation, space, medical, telecommunications and electronic industries, which could negatively impact our cost and revenue and defense budget cut, which could reduce our defense related revenue.

Those listening to this call are encouraged to review all of HEICO's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, but not limited to, filings on Form 10 ks, Form 10 Q and Form 8 ks. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, further events or otherwise, except to extent required by applicable law. Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mimble.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much and thank all of you on this call for joining us. We welcome you to the HEICO 3rd quarter fiscal 14 earnings announcement telecom. I'm Larry Mendelson. I'm Chairman and CEO of HEICO Corporation, and I'm joined here this morning by Eric Mendelson, HEICO's Co President and President of HEICO's Flight Support Group Victor Mendelson, HEICO's Co President and President of HEICO's Electronic Technologies Group Tom Irwin, HEICO's Senior Executive Vice President and Carlos Macau, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Before reviewing our Q3 operating results in detail, I would like to take a few minutes to summarize the highlights of another record setting quarter.

Our consolidated 3rd quarter fiscal 2014 net sales and net income represent record quarterly results, driven principally by record sales within Electronic Technologies and continued year over year growth in net sales within our Flight Support Group. Consolidated net sales, operating income and net income in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 also represent record results, principally driven by record net sales and operating income within Flight Support and Electronic Technologies. I would like to point out that in spite of some people, investors believing that the FUD is off the rose in terms of aerospace, commercial aerospace, HEICO's annual sales to the commercial aerospace industry have increased by over $100,000,000 in the last 12 months and approximately 60% of that is from organic growth. Consolidated Q3 fiscal 2014 net income and operating income are up 15% and 4%, respectively, on a 9% increase in net sales over Q3 of fiscal 2013. Consolidated net income and operating income in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 are up 23% and 17%, respectively, on a 16% increase in net sales over the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013.

Consolidated net income per diluted share increased 14% to $0.49 per share in the Q3 of fiscal 2014, up from $0.43 in the Q3 of fiscal 2013. Our ETG group set an all time quarterly net sales record in the Q3 of fiscal 20 14, improving 17% over the Q3 of fiscal 2013. And that increase principally reflects organic growth of about 9% and additional net sales contributed by a fiscal 2013 acquisition. Cash flow provided by operating activities increased by 38% to $127,200,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 and that was up from $92,300,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. As of July 31, 14, the company's net debt to shareholders' equity ratio was 49% with net debt, which we say is total debt less cash of $365,400,000 In June 14, a subsidiary of our Flight Support Group acquired certain assets and liabilities of Quest Aviation Supply and that is a niche supplier of parts, predominantly PMA parts to repair thrust reversers on various aircraft engines.

In July of 2014, we paid our 72nd consecutive semiannual cash dividend since 1979 and that dividend was at the rate of $0.06 per share. In July 14, we were pleased to report that Forbes Magazine had named HEICO as one of the world's 100 Most innovative growth companies for 2014, making HEICO the only company listed in that category under Aerospace and Defense. The recognition is a true testament to the expertise and innovative spirit of our more than 4,000 team members and I express my deepest appreciation for their remarkable efforts and their dedication. While this is the first time that HEICO has been included in the selection of the best performing companies under $10,000,000,000 in market cap, it complements the 7 years that HEICO has been included in either list of and President of HEICO's Flight Support Group, and he will discuss and President of HEICO's Flight Support Group and he will discuss the results of that group.

Speaker 3

Thank you. The Flight Support Group's net sales increased 6% to $191,600,000 in the Q3 of fiscal 2014, up from $181,300,000 in the Q3 of fiscal 2013. The increase in the Q3 of fiscal 2014 is attributed to additional net sales of $6,500,000 from a fiscal 2013 acquisition as well as organic growth of approximately 2%. The organic growth in the Q3 of fiscal 2014 principally reflects increased market penetration from new product offerings, further building upon our 17% organic growth posted in the Q3 of fiscal 2013. The organic growth in the Q3 of fiscal 2014 consists of strong net sales growth within our aftermarket replacement parts and repair and overhaul services product lines, partially offset by softer demand for certain defense related products in our specialty products lines.

The Flight Support Group's net sales increased 19% to a record $568,000,000 in the 9 months of fiscal 2014, up from $475,600,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. The increase in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 resulted from organic growth of approximately 12 percent as well as additional net sales of $37,700,000 from a fiscal 2013 acquisition. The strong organic growth in the Flight Support Group principally reflects new product offerings in favorable market conditions in the commercial aerospace sector resulting in net sales increases in our aftermarket replacement parts and repair and overhaul services product lines and our specialty product lines. Over the past 12 months, the Flight Support Group's organic growth has exceeded 10%, which we estimate to approximate 1.5x to 2x the market growth. The Flight Support Group's operating income increased 5% to $34,200,000 19% to a record $103,300,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, respectively, up from $32,600,000 $87,200,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013, respectively.

The increase in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 principally reflects the aforementioned net sales growth. The Flight Support Group's operating margin was 17.9% and 18.2% in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 respectively and was comparable to the operating margins of 18% 18.3% in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. Now, I would like to introduce Victor Mendelson, Co President of HEICO and President HEICO's Electronic Technologies Group to discuss the results of the Electronic Technologies Group.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Eric. The Electronic Technologies Group's net sales increased 17% to a record $102,100,000 and 12% to a record $279,300,000 in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, respectively, up from $87,400,000 $250,200,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013 respectively. The increase in both the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 reflects additional net sales of $6,800,000 $19,000,000 respectively from 2013 acquisition and organic growth of 9% and 4%, respectively. The Electronic Technologies Group's organic growth in both the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 reflects increased demand for their product offerings across substantially all of the markets the ETG serves. The Electronic Technologies Group's operating income was $21,500,000 in both the Q3 of fiscal 20142013 and increased 9% to $62,500,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, up from $57,300,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013.

The increase in the 1st 9 months fiscal 2014 reflects the previously mentioned net sales growth, partially offset by a less favorable product mix. Furthermore, during the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, we reduced the estimated contingent consideration and impaired certain intangible assets associated with the previously referenced fiscal 2013 acquisition. The impact of these adjustments, net of lower than expected operating income from the fiscal 2013 acquisition, resulted in a $0.05 $0.10 benefit in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014. The reduction to contingent consideration effectively means that we will note that we no longer believe it is probable that a significant earn out payment will be made to the previous owners of Lusiks. We believe the long term outlook for Lusiks, which is a strong and profitable business, remains attractive despite the short term backlog hurdles and general lumpiness of demand seen from time to time in the commercial satellite industry.

The ETG's operating margin was 21% and 22.4% in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, respectively, as compared to 24.6% and 22.9% in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013, respectively. Operating margins remained strong, but decreased in the Q3 of fiscal 2014 due to the previously mentioned less favorable product mix, including the overall impact of the fiscal 2013 acquired business. I'll turn the call back over to Larry Mendelson. Thank you, Victor. Moving into some of the details, diluted earnings per share.

Consolidated net income per diluted share increased 14% to $0.49 and 21% to $1.32 in the 3rd quarter and the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014, respectively. And that was up from $0.43 1 $0.09 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013 respectively. The increase in the 3rd quarter and the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 principally reflects the previously mentioned consolidated sales growth as well as the net benefits from the previously referenced ETG acquisition. Depreciation and amortization expense increased by $2,600,000 $10,400,000 in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 respectively, up from $9,500,000 and twenty $5,900,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of 2013 respectively. The increase in both periods principally reflects higher amortization expense of intangible assets recognized in connection with our fiscal 2013 acquisitions.

R and D expense increased 15% 20% to 9.9 $28,300,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 'fourteen respectively, up from 8.5% and 23.5% in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013 respectively. Significant ongoing new product development efforts are continuing at both Flight Support and ETG as we continue to invest between 3% 4% of each sales dollar into new product development in order to support our future growth strategies. SG and A expenses increased 8% to $53,200,000 and 7 percent to $145,700,000 in the 3rd quarter and first 9 months of fiscal 2014 respectively, up from $49,100,000 and $136,500,000 in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013, respectively. The aforementioned increases in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 were principally due to additional costs incurred to support the higher net sales volumes. In addition, these increases were partially offset by the previously mentioned net impact of the adjustments to contingent consideration and impairment losses related to the write down of certain intangible assets.

SG and A expenses as a percentage of net sales were 18.3 17.3 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 as compared to 18.4 and 18.9 in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. The decrease in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 principally reflects the previously mentioned net impact of adjustments to contingent consideration and impairment losses related to the write down of those intangible assets. Interest expense in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 was $1,400,000 $4,200,000 and that was up from $1,100,000 $2,500,000 in the Q3 and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. The increases principally reflect a higher weighted average balance recent acquisitions and payment of special cash dividends. Other income in the Q3 9 months of fiscal 2014 was not significant.

Our effective tax rate in the Q3 of fiscal 2014 decreased to 23.4%, down from 26.6% in the Q3 of fiscal 20 13. The effective tax rate in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 20 14 increased slightly to 29.7 percent from 29.5% in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. The decrease in the effective tax rate in the Q3 of 2014 is principally attributed to the impact of the previously mentioned reduction in accrued contingent consideration and that is non taxable. Our full year combined tax rate and non controlling interest rate expressed as a percentage of pre tax income is now anticipated to be approximately 39%. Net income attributable to non controlling interest was $4,000,000 $13,500,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 and that was compared to $5,800,000 $16,200,000 in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013.

The decrease in net income attributable to non controlling interest in the 3rd quarter and 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 reflects the purchase of certain non controlling interest during fiscal 2014, which resulted in lower allocations of net income to non controlling interest. Now moving on to our balance sheet and cash flow. Our financial position and cash flow remain extremely strong. Cash flow provided by operating activities increased by 38 percent to $127,200,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2014 and that was up from $92,300,000 in the 1st 9 months of fiscal 2013. That reflected the impact of favorable changes in working capital, increase in earnings and the impact of certain non cash adjustments and we continue to expect cash flow provided by operating activities to approximate $160,000,000 in fiscal 2014.

As a comment, one of the analysts reported today that our actual cash earnings was 200% of reported operating income. So we think that's a pretty good result. And I can tell you that our banks and anybody who's looking at our balance sheet and our ability to generate quality earnings has been very, very impressed and happy with that. The working capital ratio, that's current assets divided by current liabilities was a strong 3.2 times as of July 31, 2014. That was up from 2.7 as of October 31, 2013.

Days sales outstanding, DSOs and receivables are down to 47 days on July 31 and that's down from 50 days as of October 31, 2013. As you know, we continue to closely monitor all receivable collection efforts and we watch the granting of credit very carefully. No one customer accounted for more than 10% of sales, net sales. Our top 5 customers represented about 16% of consolidated net sales. As you can see, not a concentration at all and in both the Q3 of fiscal 2014.

Inventory turnover rate improved to 108 days as of July 31, 2014. That's down 3 days from 111, which it was at October 31, 2013. Net debt to shareholders' equity ratio was 49% as of July 31, 2014. And as I said before, net debt of 365.4% principally incurred to fund fiscal 2013 acquisitions and the purchase of certain non controlling interest earlier this year. We have no significant debt maturities until fiscal 2019 and we plan to utilize our financial flexibility to aggressively pursue high quality acquisition opportunities.

Now the outlook. As we look ahead to the remainder of fiscal 2014, we continue to anticipate growth within flight support, commercial, aerospace, aftermarket replacement parts and repair and overhaul services product lines, partially offset by declines in some of our defense products within our specialty products lines. We anticipate softer demand in ETG's defense products during the Q4, partially offset by a net increase in demand within the other markets served by ETG. During the remainder of fiscal 2014, we plan to remain focused on new product development, further market penetration, executing acquisition strategies and maintaining our financial strength. Based upon our current economic visibility, we are increasing our estimate of fiscal 2014 year over year growth in net income to 14% to 16%, up from our prior growth estimate of 12% to 14%.

We estimate fiscal 2014 year over year growth in net sales at 12% to 14%. Our full year fiscal 2014 consolidated operating margin should approximate 18%, CapEx about $20,000,000 depreciation and amortization expense approximately 49,000,000 dollars and cash flow from operations approximately $160,000,000 That is the extent of my prepared comments. And at this time, I would like to open the floor for questions from our callers. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your first question comes from the line of JB Grove with D. A. Davidson.

Speaker 4

Can you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

I can hear you. Yes.

Speaker 4

Great. Hey, Larry. Hey, JP. Quick one for Eric. Eric, can you kind of remind us of what the military mix is in FSG?

I mean, I think it sounds like what you said is that the commercial side was pretty strong still. So just trying to get a feel for what the drag was from the military markets?

Speaker 3

Well, we don't good morning, JB. We don't break out by segment our quarterly results on product lines. However, the military is a minority of what we do. I can tell you that the shortfall in military sales was really as a result of certain primarily foreign military contracts slipping to the right. We are in receipt of the purchase orders.

So we do have the business, but as you know, sometimes with foreign military sales, there can be a little bit of a delay due to the bureaucracy and the number of people involved in there. So we do anticipate making those shipments, but they just got delayed a little bit. But we can't we don't break out as a percentage of the overall. Flight support sales.

Speaker 4

Okay. Tim, I'll probably back into it. Then just had a sort of conceptual question, Eric. I mean, given the fact that traffic's been really good and margins at airlines have been decent and profitability has been pretty strong for 5 years. I mean, do you is it I mean, I guess it would be normal when margins are pressured for the phone for PMA to ring pretty significantly.

Do you notice when margins are higher and profitability is better at the airlines that maybe they back off on using PMA or give me your thoughts on that?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think normally we always say that we gain market share in financial downturns. That's when airlines realize they've got a focus on cost. So I think in general, what happens is when markets turn down, we get more parts approved more quickly. And then as the markets recover, we benefit from that.

I think that our issue this quarter was we had such strong organic growth last year in Q3 of, I don't know, some 17%. And I think if you look at what we had organic growth in our first and second quarters of this year, it was really off the charts at our Q1 organic growth was about 19% in Flight Support Group. 2nd quarter was 15% last year, Q3 was 17% and Q4 was 14%. So we've got such tough comps that we are up against. And really, I think it's more just a matter of consolidating those sales.

We come out with some new products. We get them sold. The customers need to burn off a little bit of inventory and then we're back selling some more stuff. But I can tell you, I was very proud of being able to hold on to those big gains that we reported and say over the last past year in organic growth and being able to build on top of it. So the airlines remain very focused on cost savings.

We're doing very well in that area. I can also tell you just as a little bit of color, last week I met with our aftermarket sales and operations teams for just about the entire week. And I can tell you that I've never been more impressed with those people and with the projects that we've got in process and their strategies. And the fact that we have this team now that over the last 20 years has been integrated and is working incredibly, incredibly well together and embracing this culture. So I'm very optimistic going forward that they will continue to find opportunities as are they.

Speaker 4

That's helpful, Eric. Thanks. I'll hop back in the queue.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Tyler Hajde with Sidoti and Company.

Speaker 5

Hey, everyone. Just a follow-up to JB's question on specialty products in the defense markets. Maybe you could talk about kind of your expectations for that product line. Do you think that area has stabilized? And I'm also kind of curious maybe as a follow on is, if you were to back that out, what would the organic growth what would the organic growth have looked like within the commercial aftermarket this quarter?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Tyler. This is Eric. As we I think we put in the press release, the organic growth was strong and was higher in the commercial parts market as compared to the defense and industrial markets. We all know that the defense sales can be rather lumpy.

This is a great business. We really liked being in those businesses and the returns are very good. We've got some incredible people and products, but it does sometimes generate lumpiness in the same in the industrial markets. So we're still very optimistic. We're very committed to those markets.

I don't think that's really a surprise to most people given there's been some defense and industrial weakness in the economy lately, but we're very optimistic that it is going to prove to be and will continue to prove to be a very strong business. And again, we were stronger than over in the commercial markets as compared to the defense and industrial markets. Interesting. And I'm sorry. And again, if we look at our numbers, I mean, we still think that our organic growth is somewhere for the 9 months in the 1.5 to 2 times the industry growth.

So we still feel confident of our ability to outgrow the industry.

Speaker 5

Okay. So is it fair to say that you're kind of chalking up the weakness in specialty products more to lumpiness? And I guess where I'm going with this is, I know specialty products has been kind of a tailwind for you guys for at least the last couple of quarters. And I guess maybe what my concern is, is that now on the downswing?

Speaker 3

Well, no, no, I would not consider it to be on the downswing at all. Number 1, it can be lumpy. And number 2, when some contracts are pushed a little bit to the right, that impacts obviously when they're delivered. Again, we are in receipt of the POs, so it's not a matter of losing the business if you will, but the defense business can get pushed to the right in industrial products. Things are designed.

They have some shorter lifespans. There's switchovers in products. So as a result, those can be lumpy as well. But I wouldn't say it's any significant change to the business. Yes, we have done very well in the past on that and I anticipate we will continue to do well in the future on those programs as well.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Thanks for that color. And just lastly for me, was curious, if you could maybe shed a little bit more light on the Quest acquisition. First, I'm wondering what the contribution from Quest is to the guidance? And I'm also it just seems like a really good fit within your existing business.

I'm also curious about kind of the acquisition pipeline within FSG.

Speaker 3

Yes. It's again Quest was not a large business. It was a product line. It was basically a bolt on. It helps round out some of our products.

And frankly, it was a make versus buy on some of that stuff. We could have just as easily developed it, but we had the opportunity to go ahead and buy it. We think that it fits very well. We're very optimistic on the product line and the capability. As far as acquisitions, I can tell you the pipeline is quite full.

We're looking at a number of transactions at the moment. I can't go into what kind of businesses they are for competitive reasons and our competitors, I'm sure, are listening on this call. But we are looking at a number of companies out there.

Speaker 2

I would like to just this is Larry. I'd like to add a little bit of color to the acquisition questions because I'm sure somebody on this call is going to ask it. We are as Eric says, looking at a number of transactions. We are as you know as investors very disciplined in the way we buy companies. We do not pay 14 times or 12 times EBITDA for companies.

And we believe that when pricing interest rates rise a little bit and pricing becomes more reasonable, we'll be able to get more active. But saying that, we are still finding good companies at prices that we can afford and that can be accretive. We're spending a lot of time in the due diligence processes and we're not going to rush a closing of an acquisition in order to meet Wall Street expectation or hope and try to financially engineer our results. We're going to do due diligence in a very thorough manner the way we always do it and make sure that we're not buying a pig in the poke. And so we won't change that process and the strategy that we've used.

And it's the strategy has proven to be very, very good over the last 20 years. So I think the acquisitions will come, but it's going to take a little bit longer to complete the due diligence.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's great color. That's all I had. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Ernie Gersener with CJS Securities.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Ernie.

Speaker 7

Could you discuss the actions you've took or have taken in Q3 to resolve the issues at Lu6? And do you anticipate these will continue to impact your Q4 results?

Speaker 2

Yes. Arne, this is Victor. I'll answer the question. So at this point, Lusik's is profitable. It is a profitable business.

It's a very good business. It's a strong business. I think that a lot of the issues we saw in the first half of the year were washing out in the second in the third quarter, excuse me. And we anticipate LUC6 will be stronger as time wears on. That doesn't mean it won't be lumpy quarter by quarter.

In fact, that's really what I would expect. These are little longer cycle businesses. Companies like Lusix are a little longer cycle in nature than some of the other defense excuse me, space work that we do in some of our other companies. So from what I see out there and the order flow that's been coming in, which has been pretty good of late, I would say that those extreme issues we saw in the first half of the year seem to be behind us at this point.

Speaker 7

Great. My second question is just numerical. In guidance for the upcoming year, if I took the low end of your revenue growth, you give us an operating margin assumption. There's an implied tax rate given in that 39% that you mentioned before. The problem I have with that math is it would lead to net income growth well above the targeted level you gave us.

I don't know if you or Tom care to comment on it.

Speaker 6

Arne, this is Tom. I'm hearing in our guidance numbers at the high end range, I guess, what you're looking at as you're pointing out, roughly flattish with the Q4 last year. What we see in our near term outlook is continued strength on the commercial aerospace side and some continued uncertainty in the defense side relative to the Q4 last year. So that's going to have an impact on the reported margins because of the margin mix between FSG and ETG. And again, we in our guidance numbers, we try to be highly confident in those numbers.

We are always targeting to do better and that will continue to be the effort.

Speaker 7

Well, again, it's simple math. Again, if I put in around a 30% tax rate, even at the lower end, your net income growth would be between 19% 20%, well above what you've given us in the way of guidance. So I appreciate conservatism, but just the pure math doesn't work. It might be something we follow-up on offline.

Speaker 6

Yes, sure. I'm just saying, let's check how the computations, but again at the high end of the range you're looking at roughly flattish with the 4th quarter net income last year. So, I have to check to see what your modeling numbers are.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

Thanks Arne.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Julie Yates with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 9

Just to continue on that, I mean, the so the margin guidance of 18 percent suggests margins will bounce back in the 4th quarter. What are the drivers there? And how should we think about the margin trajectory from the levels we saw in the Q3 in both segments?

Speaker 6

Yes. Dewey, this is Tom O'Rourke. Again, in terms of our guidance numbers, we use an approximate 18% number and that's our best estimate. That would be a mix again of the flight support group and the FS excuse me, and the ETG group with the ETG group margins running higher than FSG. At approximately 18%, I think in terms of the math numbers, it might be still comparable to what they've been running the 9 month numbers, not a huge, huge change.

There might be some upside, but there might be a little bit of downside too. Again, depending on the uncertainty, primarily in some of the higher margin defense electronic work.

Speaker 9

Okay. Are the specialty products margins higher margin than your aftermarket, your commercial aftermarket products?

Speaker 6

Within Life Support Group, the special product margins are good again for competitive reasons. We don't want to try to get too granular particularly with customers. But these typically the specialty products have been good margins. And when we added as clarification, when we added to that specialty product through brinehold last year, which began impacting the comps in this quarter. That's where the larger portion of defense component sales comes from.

So one of the earlier questions about the mix of specialty products, the defense component increased with the acquisition last May of Reinhold.

Speaker 9

Okay. Okay. And then just going back to the organic growth discussion. As organic growth is decelerating with the tough comps, can you help us calibrate expectations for FSG over the next several quarters? Should we kind of continue to expect the low single digit organic growth rate?

Speaker 6

Again, I think as Eric mentioned, we typically target within our FSG group and particularly the or commercial aerospace, 1.5 to 2 times the industry growth. And I guess it's so therefore that continues to be our target. The industry is going to grow mid single digits. We don't know what for sure what we have a crystal ball in terms of what the MROs stand and traffic etcetera, etcetera over the next 1 to 12 months are. But I think we're comfortable that we'll outperform the market.

Speaker 8

Julie, this is

Speaker 2

Larry. Historically, when we go back over a period of time and we don't take it quarter by quarter, the FSG Group has organic growth somewhere in the area of 10% to 14%. I just use a round number of 12%. So as Eric pointed out, we've had 17%. And I've said this to investors, 17% organic growth is not sustainable.

And similarly, if we have a 5% or say that is probably too low. I think somewhere between 10% 12% is a reasonable target for the organic growth, but it's going to fluctuate because when you're coming off of a very if you come out of a low period, all of a sudden, we've had some times where it's 20 some percent growth and totally unsustainable. But that's only comparing one period to another. If you look at in my opinion, if you look at the FSG Group and HEICO as a long term investment, I think that is a the numbers I just gave you are reasonable organic growth target.

Speaker 3

And Julien, this is Eric. Just to add, went back and looked at some of the historical numbers. In fiscal 2011, our organic growth in Flight Support was about 22%. And then in fiscal 2012, it was 4%. Then fiscal 2013 was above 9%.

So you can see that it fluctuates up and down and typically when you've got a very high organic growth rate, I mean, you can't continue to build upon that. Likewise, when it's lower, you've got the opportunity, obviously, on the upside. I can tell you though that as I mentioned in one of my other comments that in meeting for 4 days last week with our parts and repair sales and operating team. We have a tremendous number of products that are in the market in development right now. We're working with customers and we're very optimistic on the future of those products.

When we've got a great team, I think they're able to execute. They understand the market very well. They understand HEICO culture very well. I've never seen a group like this at HEICO before. We have, in my opinion, the best group that we have ever had by far in the history of the company in this market sector.

So I can tell you we're right now working on our budgets for fiscal 2015. Our fiscal 2015 year starts November 1. I don't have those budgets, so I don't have the numbers in front of me. But I can tell you that based on the caliber of these people and the

Speaker 6

culture that we've got and

Speaker 3

how they work together, I'm very optimistic that they're going to do quite well and beat whatever is going on in the market.

Speaker 2

Julie, one more comment for me. Historically, I have seen when the organic growth is low, it picks up and when it's very high, it drops. And it's a cyclical business and I have often said again to investors at meetings that there's a conflict between the aerospace cycle and the financial cycle. And the financial cycle is 12 months or 3 months if you go by quarter. And the aerospace cycle, the MRO cycle is somewhere between say 3036 months.

So within one MRO cycle of 36 months, you're going to have 3 financial cycles of 12 months. And I think the way I look at it is that we're going to have peaks and valleys and we're comparing it to a financial cycle to a natural business cycle and investing under those circumstances takes an adjustment to convert the financial to the actual business cycle. That's the result of my observation of running this company for the last 20 some years.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Julie.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with Canaccord Genuity.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Good morning. First, Victor, I wanted to ask you a question. I mean, a couple of years ago, you had similar situation not exactly the same as you're facing with LUSIX, but you had 3 d plus and now you've got the LUSIX and it sounds like it's a timing issue. But have your experience with some of these deals and the space market in particular maybe changed what you're looking for from an acquisition standpoint or maybe the attractiveness of some of these markets?

Or is it really timing and more of a short term issue?

Speaker 2

Good question. As a rule

Speaker 3

of thumb, no, I think,

Speaker 2

of course, as we gain more experience in space and understand the markets a little better, we fine tune the strategy as we go. But for example, in the case of 3 d Plus, that was a rough 1st 6 months, but that acquisition has turned into a home run. It is just a great business and I think we may even be able to drive more business to 3 d plus from some of our other space businesses and in fact vice versa. And I could see 3 d plus benefiting LUSIC as we get out probably a year from now or so. It's still a great market, but it is somewhat of a lumpy market.

If I had the choice to do it all over again to make these acquisitions, I'd make each one of them. They really are great businesses that can't be replicated. They are in very important niches, but one does have to look over kind of a longer period of time and sort of a longer cycle, which is a little more similar to the ETG as you used to know it a few years ago. I think we became a little more linear in our progression each year in terms of performance as opposed to as variable as it had been in the past. But I kind of look over the year, I think in some of the space businesses maybe over 2 years period to see how these perform.

Speaker 8

Okay. No, that's helpful. And the organic growth within ETG, I think was a nice surprise in this quarter. Is that something as we think about on earlier comps were obviously the inverse of what FSG was facing. But as you go through the Q4 and into 2015, what do you think is a good sort of normalized organic growth rate in the near term for the ETG segment?

Speaker 3

Well, I would rather tell you to look at

Speaker 2

what I've always said historically out of ETG and that's organic growth in the sort of mid to low single digits organically from ETG and we're working to do higher. And I know over the last few years, we have done higher than that, but I'd rather not go out there and tell you to look for the higher numbers and for us to be unable to deliver. So I'm a little more comfortable sticking with that right now.

Speaker 8

Okay. Okay. No, that's reasonable. And then, Larry, you had great obviously, as you mentioned and you called out great cash flow generation in the quarter. Looks like you paid down some of the debt, at least for some of the near term.

As you think about cash flow for the rest of this year, any change in your priorities? And I

Speaker 2

know in the last few years

Speaker 8

you've considered a special dividend. Anything you can comment as you continue to generate such strong cash and considering the acquisition pipeline and how we should think about it?

Speaker 2

At this time, I really don't know. The question of dividends, we always bring up at the board meetings. Excuse me, that's a board decision. Of course, management will make recommendations. I did indicate earlier that we do have a few acquisition opportunities that were in due diligence right now.

So that's going to use a little bit of that money. But I think we'll just have to play it by ear and see what we do. The greatest concern that I have is cash flow, cash earnings and the quality of earnings as opposed to earnings per share. As you know, we can show great earnings per share, but no cash. And HEICO is a company that we historically have generated 140% to 180% of our net income has been cash.

And in this quarter, it was 200% or something. But we don't know what we're going to do with that cash. But if we have excess cash, we will seriously consider additional dividends and acquisitions. So the two uses of the cash will be acquisition and additional dividend. No change in the overall strategy.

Speaker 8

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then finally, Eric, I don't want to belabor this too much, but as you any color you can provide? I know within FSG segment, specifically on the PMA side, whether it be engine versus non engine?

Or is the ramp of the non engine business that you've talked about, whether it be interiors or maybe some of the more recent components and other systems you're looking at. Is that ramp going according to plan? Or are you seeing maybe any push to the right of the adoption of some of the newer product line?

Speaker 3

Ken, we're seeing, I would say, results consistent with our plans and consistent with what we have expected and what we've experienced in the past. No, there's not we haven't seen a push to the right. We think that there's very good opportunity in the products that we've got coming out. Yes, we've been saying now for many years that our non engine business is the majority is over 50% of our total PMA business. It continues to be very strong.

We have a tremendous focus in that area. Again, 15 years ago, we weren't even in that space. Today, we're a significant we're the largest player in that space and we're very optimistic on the future for it.

Speaker 8

All right. I'll stop there. Thank you very much.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Herbert Worthen with Green Power Inc.

Speaker 11

Good morning, Larry and very young children who I remember when they were just walking around as teenagers. Thank you for all you've done at HEICO. As you know, I'm your single largest individual shareholder for the last 20 plus years. And I thank the family for doing such a wonderful job and allowing us to be able to share the experience with you. I have a question that has to do with long term objectives or whether you have had some bites at the apple.

Have there been any inquiries about the purchase of HEICO to be bolted on to any of the other companies that might be interested in what you do each and every day?

Speaker 2

Herb, first of all, this is Larry. I thank you, 1, for your comments, 2, for your strong support over many years. And that support, as you have mentioned many times, has been well rewarded and you have done extremely well as a long term investor. And your mentality is a perfect HEICO investor because you happen to be a brilliant guy and a brilliant investor and not only in HEICO, but many other securities where you have the vision for the long term. To answer your question specifically, we really don't comment on questions about has HEICO been approached or selling the company and so forth and so on.

We really don't comment on that type of thing. If there is a serious approach, HEICO management would recommend to the Board if there's a price at which somebody wants to purchase HEICO and it's beneficial for all shareholders, we would certainly consider it. But to make a comment about being approached, we really don't make those comments unless something is truly on the table. So I can't comment on that.

Speaker 11

But you would not be opposed at the right number to be able to

Speaker 2

Absolutely not. Absolutely, we are all committed. Remember that the benefit that the Mendelson family gets from this and the same benefit that you get is in the ownership of equity shares. We're not in this for salary and benefits and so forth, but to build a strong company, which as we all know, we've been able to do over the past 20 some years. So if somebody comes with a generous offer, we are very happy to consider that offer.

We would talk to them and no, we're not an entrenched management at all.

Speaker 11

Well, thank you. And again, I want to thank you for allowing me to be one of your investors over the last 20 something years where you take a few $1,000,000 and turn it into 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars. Thank you very much from our family.

Speaker 2

And again, Herb, the thanks goes back to you because it's unique having a wonderful investor, a brilliant guy and a good friend in Herb Wertheim. So we appreciate your comments and your loyalty and we'll stay in touch. Thanks so much.

Speaker 11

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 12

Just a couple of housekeeping items. In terms of the earnings guidance or net income guidance for the remainder of the year, is there any additional earn out reversal baked into that guidance or any other items that whether it's a buyback of more than non controlling? Anything else out there that would sort of I guess dilute the quality of earnings for the remainder of the year?

Speaker 2

The answer is no. Okay.

Speaker 12

And then Victor on Lusiix, you said the business is profitable. I'm assuming the margins are still a drag to ETG. It sounds like the incoming orders are picking up, sounds like the backlog is growing. When do you expect that those margins would maybe get up to sort of in line or even possibly accretive to the ETG group?

Speaker 2

It's difficult to say for sure. I could see that happening within the next year. I can't guarantee that, but I could see that happening within the next year. And also, by the way, keep in mind that amortization of intangibles, acquisition intangibles is a drag on our margins. And of course, that accounts for some of the reason for the gap between net income and cash flow and why you've got cash flow running at such so much greater than net income generally with us.

So that is that's a drag and we make acquisitions, certainly the newer ones, it takes a number of years for that intangibles amortization to run off versus companies we've had for a longer period of time. So as we make more acquisitions, one would generally expect the intangibles rate to take an increasing chunk, not huge, but increasing each year of the income. When we evaluate the businesses internally by the way,

Speaker 3

the way I look at it,

Speaker 2

I look at the businesses before amortization of intangibles. What is the true operating what are the true operating characteristics of the business? What is the cash that's coming out of each business? And what's the outlook for each business?

Speaker 12

Got it. And then just I think last quarter on LUSIC you were saying some of the satellite programs you had customers coming in making changes to designs, you had rework. I mean is that all in the rearview mirror? I think you said it was kind of some would slide into 4Q, I guess, restarting in 3Q and then 4Q. I mean, are you are those issues all in the rearview mirror now?

Speaker 2

Yes, you're referring to the rework issues and the change issues on existing programs. As far as I know, those are all in the rearview mirror and have been now for some months.

Speaker 12

Okay, perfect. And then just the last one, Eric. Can you give us a sense, FSG on a sequential basis from the Q2 to Q3, revenues were down. It sounds like most of the peer companies are seeing aftermarket expansion. I know you've got the tough comps on a year over year basis, but can you give us any color what you're seeing kind of sequentially or month by month in terms of

Speaker 3

to. If you take a look at our sales, I mean, as you know, we had a tremendous jump in the 3rd and

Speaker 6

the 4th quarters of fiscal

Speaker 3

fiscal 2013. And that strong sales continued into the first second quarters of fiscal 2014. If you look, yes, our 3rd quarter revenue in Flight Support Group is down about $3,000,000 compared to the 2nd quarter. But again, up very substantially from where we were in the early part of fiscal 2013. As my dad mentioned, our sales in Flight Support are up over $100,000,000 over the last 12 month period.

So I think that we've got tremendous growth, but we've just got some very tough comps that we've got in there. We did have some, as we mentioned before, we had some military contracts slip to the right. Again, we're in receipt of the POs, so it's not a matter of losing the business. It's more just sometimes those contracts get a little lumpy. And that's why we caution and we don't like to give we don't give quarter by quarter guidance because we really don't know.

And unlike some other companies, we don't game the system. When the sales come, that's when we show them, when the customer wants the product. And we're always focused or people are always focused on doing the right thing. So as a result, sometimes we just have a blowout quarter and I wish that it would be more linear, but it's just not and that's really how it falls out. But I wouldn't say that there's any material change in the outlook of the business or the products or anything.

As a matter of fact, I'm again much more optimistic in the quality of our people, the quality of the products and as they put together the budget for 15, I think they're going to do great things.

Speaker 2

I would this is Larry. I'd like to just go back to the Lucid questions and point something out that this whole accounting for Lucic's contingent earn out and reversal and everything is complicated accounting. However, I want to point out 2 things which are beneficial to us. Number 1, the earnout is cash. And so that means that we will not be paying or we estimate we will not be paying approximately $50,000,000 over 2 year period in an earn out.

So that's number 1. Number 2, the reversal of the liability for the earn out also reduces amortization of intangibles that would hit the P and L going forward. So at this moment, I can't predict what the net effect will be. But if Victor is correct, and I do believe he is correct, that LusiX begins to pick up and do better in the future, the earnings should come through stronger than they would have come through because there is less amortization that will go against those earnings. So it's a complicated calculation, but I am expecting that should be the result.

Speaker 12

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks a lot guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Konrad with Jefferies.

Speaker 13

Hi. It's actually Sheila. Sorry for the mix up. I just actually had a follow-up on ETG margins medium term. Should we see that go back to the 22% to 24% level as defense mix and LUSIC's rework works its way through?

Or is the medium term margin for ATG closer to 20% to 22%?

Speaker 3

Sheila, I would say I'm kind of looking

Speaker 2

in the midpoint of that entire range that you laid out there, kind of midpoint of the lower 20s.

Speaker 13

Okay. And the mix impact should anniversary itself through as we head into fiscal 2015?

Speaker 2

The mix impact anniversary itself

Speaker 13

Right. Because it's been I mean, I feel like for the last few quarters, we've had mix impact hit profitability and that's why we've seen the contraction year over year in addition to what's been going on at Lusiix. So that sort of works out, I guess.

Speaker 2

Yes. Sheila, it's difficult for me to really anticipate the mix, particularly as we get further out at this point. Of course, we haven't done completed the budgets for 2015 yet. So I just I'm not certain as to that answer. I would expect over time, we probably get back more toward our historical mix, But I can't be certain.

I don't want to give you a definitive answer on that until I'm

Speaker 13

certain. Yes. And I guess, Victor, just one more follow-up. In terms of the organic growth you saw in the quarter, sequentially, what markets improved the most?

Speaker 2

It was pretty much across the board. I wouldn't highlight any one of them. I think it's a particularly strong versus another.

Speaker 13

Okay. And then Eric, if you don't mind just one last question for you. In terms of scale dynamics, I know the business has been progressing really well, but some of the competitors have seen some industry dynamics change. Could you comment on that at all? And maybe who your big customers are and the success of that business?

Speaker 3

Yes. Sheila, we have to be careful obviously for competitive reasons. We said about speaking about any business or particular product line. But I can tell you Steel Dynamics is in the distribution business and it's extremely successful and has an incredible management team, a great list of principles, a great business strategy, which I believe is not able to be replicated by anybody else in the industry. This is a business that grew from a very small business by putting in the correct disciplines and over the last 20 5 years has just done exceptionally well.

So I can tell you we're very optimistic on where the business is going And we think that there's a lot of fit with what HEICO does and the credibility that HEICO brings to the marketplace. So I'm not familiar with any specific industry dynamics that would negatively impact us. I think everything is very much going in our favor.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sheila.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Jamsieng with Gabelli.

Speaker 10

Hi, everyone. So I've got all my questions answered here. But I just have one question regarding just the growth rate for FSG. You say it was 1.5% to 2% the industry growth over the longer term period. But what are the drivers that caused that to go higher than that or below that trend line?

Speaker 3

Jim, that's a great question. When we look at our growth, it's primarily driven by the sales, the development of new products, which are sold to existing as well as new customers as well as additional sales of existing product to existing customers who are not buying those particular parts. So when we look at the number of aircraft that are being delivered, roughly half of them are for new growth, half of them are for replacement. So the ones that are for replacement, obviously, that takes away opportunity for us. But on the other hand, we've got roughly 95% of the fleet is aging by 1 year every year and the parts become even more expensive.

So I think that it's really the aging of the to answer your question, it's the aging of the existing fleet that gives us the opportunity. And that's why we're optimistic on the future of where we're headed. Our sales growth unlike other aftermarket firms is not impacted by the delivery of new material or new stocking for new deliveries, for example, 787. Our sales are the support of existing products. So if you look at the aftermarket of mature products, that's where we think that we're going to be able to grow 1.5 to 2 times the industry average.

And if you look historically, we've done that or better.

Speaker 10

Great. And then just lastly, how big is your specialty product line now in the FSG segment?

Speaker 3

Yes, we don't break out again due to competitive reasons. We don't break out the sales of the various business units within the reporting segments. We're not permitted to do that. And also we don't want to let our competitors know. But again, these businesses basically have grown out of what we're doing in the aftermarket side.

So there's some relationship there and we're very optimistic on the future of these businesses.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. That's all I have. See you in a couple of weeks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. See you in a few weeks. Thanks, Jim.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Levinson with Stifel.

Speaker 2

Hey, everybody.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, Steve.

Speaker 8

Just a question. With the increased role of leasing companies, I know that's not going to

Speaker 2

have an immediate effect, but

Speaker 8

do you see it as more of an opportunity in the future? Or do you see potential restrictions that they would have on parts and repair services as a headwind? Thanks.

Speaker 3

We see it as an opportunity. We've had to deal with this issue for over 10 years and we see it as a big opportunity. There are some very progressive lessors out there that want to give their customers competitive advantage to be able to use alternative material and we see that as a very positive trend. Again, I think HEICO is unique in the space because people have faith in HEICO's product line due to our quality reputation that frankly nobody else has in the industry. So we've seen very good success in that area.

We're making sure that we educate the airlines around the world about the alternatives and the opportunity that they've got in leasing. So I see it as a great

Speaker 1

question comes from the line of Michael Dudgeon with CRC Capital

Speaker 6

Group. Thanks for taking my questions. Just two quick ones. 1, we're seeing in the airline industry increasing move to part out older aircraft and Boeing is even talking about potentially going into that business. Is that something that competes with PMA parts more effectively than a new part?

Or is that something that are they dealing in areas that are not competitive with you?

Speaker 3

Yes. It's in areas that are primarily not competitive with us. Most of our PMA businesses are expendables, which are not typically recovered in a part out. We also do some parting out and some asset management services and we do that very successfully. So we're very up to date on the market and the market trends that are out there.

And we don't believe that there is a significant impact on our parts business. As far as Boeing getting into the space, I don't know whether they will or they won't, but I don't think it's going to have a really an impact on our business.

Speaker 6

And just one more quick one. I saw that one of your competitors, WENCOR, was sold to Warburg Pincus from Odyssey recently. And I was just wondering if you whether or not you looked at that and whether or not the reason if you did, whether you rejected it because it was too expensive or there was a size issue in terms of you're really more focused on bolt on acquisitions as opposed to something that was larger?

Speaker 3

Right. That's a good question and we've received that question from many investors. We're not permitted to comment on any specific acquisition as you can imagine due to possible confidentiality agreements. So I can't say whether we did look at it or we didn't look at it. But what I can tell you is various investors have mentioned to us that it went at a very high price about 15 times earnings.

And if you look at their product line and their capability and their reputation in the marketplace, 15 times earnings was certainly a price that was very aggressive. And personally speaking, if 1 quarter is worth 15 times earnings, my guess is HEICO is probably worth 25 times

Speaker 10

earnings.

Speaker 3

So, but it's we what we tend to do is we tend to look for businesses where there's going to be a very good cultural fit with the company, where they want to join HEICO, they want sell at a reasonable price. We all know that you can't get blood from a stone. And if something is sold at a very high price, that means invariably there's probably going to have to be adverse effects on employees, customers, suppliers and typically the people who sell businesses and work with HEICO are interested in continuing the growth of those companies and are very loyal to the people who remain behind and the customers. And it's really necessity for us to find those people who want to be part of the HEICO family. As we mentioned before, we've got a number of transactions that we're looking at that are a very good cultural fits with HEICO.

So I'm very optimistic that we can buy businesses below 15 times earnings.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Michael.

Speaker 1

And at this time, there are no questions in queue.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I would like to thank everybody who's participated in this call, comments and listeners alike. We look forward to hearing from you and speaking with you on the Q4 earnings call, which should be sometime in December. And in the meantime, if you do have any questions or comments, as you know, the management team here at HEICO is available by phone or email and please stay in touch with us. Again, thank you and have a good Labor Day weekend.

Speaker 1

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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