Good morning, and welcome to the Highwoods Properties Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, February 6, 2019. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brendan Merana.
Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Joining me on the call this morning are Ed Fritsch, Chief Executive Officer Ted Klink, President and Chief Operating Officer and Mark Mulhern, Chief Financial Officer. As is our custom, today's prepared remarks have been posted on the web. If any of you have not received yesterday's earnings release or supplemental, they're both available on the Investors section of our website at highwoods.com. On today's call, our review will include non GAAP measures such as FFO, NOI and EBITDAre.
Also, the release and supplemental include a reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Forward looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed at length in our press releases as well as our SEC filings. As you know, actual events and results can differ materially from these forward looking statements. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward looking statements. I'll now turn
the call to Ed. Thank you, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. To state the obvious, it's been a volatile couple of months in the financial markets as the Dow, RMZ, interest rates and other financial indicators have whipsawed. Volatility in the financial markets is nothing new. In fact, it seems to be the new norm.
When looking back a year ago, there was a volatile start to 2018, although the trend lines were opposite. It's easy to get swept up in the headlines and day to day movements in the financial markets. However, economic fundamentals, as reflected in the unemployment rate and job creation, remain conducive to growth, matches the conditions we've seen on the ground in BBD OfficeVille, where fundamentals remain solid. We continue to experience healthy demand from customers and prospects. New supply risks are generally in check across our footprint and rents continue to rise.
We had a lot of discussion last year about Amazon's HQ2 search, especially after 4 of our cities were included in their whittled down list from 238 to a final 20. The ultimate HQ2 search turned out to be what we call HQ2.5, following Amazon's announcement that it split the requirements among New York, Metro DC and Nashville, where it will put an operation center. To put this Nashville job growth announcement in perspective, Amazon's plan to add 5,000 new jobs is the single largest office using job expansion announcement is the single largest office using job expansion announcement in Nashville's history. And on a per capita basis, 5,000 new office jobs in Nashville is a greater increase than the 25,000 new jobs Amazon will create in New York. Amazon's Nashville offices will be housed beside our now underway Asurion project and our 1100 Broadway development site, where we can build up to 1,200,000 square feet.
Needless to say, we remain jazzed about the outlook for Nashville. Overall, as evidenced by our strong leasing stats posted in the 4th quarter, with GAAP rent spreads of up 20.2% and net effective rents 6.3% above our trailing 5 quarter average. We're pleased with the performance and encouraged by the outlook of our portfolio. We continue to see strong interest for expansion and relocation space from users leveraging the business friendly environments, high quality of life and moderate cost of living enjoyed across our markets. Turning to our results, 2018 was a solid year for our company.
1st, we delivered per share FFO of $3.45 near the high end of our original outlook of $3.35 to 3.47 Same property cash NOI growth was 0.7 percent or 1.1% when adjusting for Q4 2018 dispositions not included in our original forecast. This compares to our original range of 1% to 2%. Cash NOI growth was impacted by higher than expected concessions, driven by earlier than expected sizable future year renewals, which sets us up for better growth going forward. During the year, we achieved rent spreads on 2nd gen office leases of +4 percent on a cash basis and plus 19% on a GAAP basis, while keeping leasing costs consistent with prior trends. 2nd, we announced $285,000,000 of 98.3 percent pre leased development, delivered $85,000,000 that was 99.6 percent leased and increased the pre leasing on our pipeline by signing 1,000,000 square feet of 1st gen leases.
Our $691,000,000 pipeline is now 93% pre leased. Development continues to be a key growth engine for our company. 3rd, we continue to color portfolio with the sale of $86,000,000 of non core properties. 4th and finally, we improved the balance sheet while investing heavily in our development pipeline and replenishing our land bank without issuing any shares on the ATM. We were able to maintain our debt to EBITDA ratio at 4.75 times.
In the Q4, we delivered FFO of $0.86 per share. Our same property cash NOI growth during the quarter was +1.5 percent, which includes the full quarter impact of Fidelity's move out at 11000 Weston in Raleigh. We leased a healthy 918000 square feet of 2nd gen office at positive cash rent spreads of 5.8% and GAAP rent spreads of 20.2%. Portfolio occupancy finished the year at 91.9% towards the upper end of our most recent outlook. As a result of our continued strengthening cash flow bolstered by improving rents and development deliveries, we increased our dividend for the 3rd consecutive year to an annualized rate of $1.90 per share.
Since the beginning of 2017, our dividend is up 12%, which is in addition to the $0.80 per share special dividend we declared in December of 2016. In last night's earnings release, we provided our initial 2019 per share FFO outlook of $3.44 to $3.56 with a midpoint of 3.50 There are a number of items that impacted our year over year growth rate, including the $11,000 Western duration fee received in 2019 that won't repeat in 2019 the increased G and A expense attributable to certain in house leasing costs that are now expensed but were previously capitalized and late in 2018 dispositions. Adjusting for these items, our FFO per share growth in 2019 would be 3.8% at the midpoint of our outlook. A few of the other major items in our outlook include same property cash NOI growth of 2% to 3%, which Mark will provide more color on. Our dispositions outlook is $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 which represents a relatively typical year of sales activity for us.
Our acquisition outlook has a low end end of 0 and a placeholder of $200,000,000 at the high end. This range may sound familiar since it's the same we provided for the past 2 years. Given the wall of capital available to acquire BBD located assets, there haven't been quality buildings available at the risk adjusted returns we feel would be acceptable to our shareholders. Lastly, our development outlook is $100,000,000 to $375,000,000 We continue to have conversations with several large anchor prospects that give us confidence towards the likelihood of announcing more projects in 2019. Also, last evening, we announced we will develop GlenLake 7, a 41,000,000 dollars 126,000 square foot office building in West Raleigh.
This will be the 5th building in our GlenLake campus. The existing four buildings, which encompass more than 600,000 square feet, are 98% occupied. The project will break ground in the Q2 of 2019 with scheduled to be completed in the Q3 of 2020 and a targeted stabilization date in the Q4 of 'twenty one. The project is 28% pre leased based on Hywad's intention to occupy approximately 35,000 square feet upon completion. We already have interest from prospects, which gives us additional confidence of meeting our projected stabilization date.
In addition, our most recent delivery in GlenLake stabilized in the beginning of 2017, two quarters ahead of pro form a and an NOI some 10% above our original underwriting. Our success at GlenLake and other recent modest sized spec projects we started in Raleigh, notably 751 Corporate Center and 5000 Center Green, were factors in our decision to start GlenLake 7. In closing, I applaud our team for their dedicated efforts throughout 2018, especially in posting impressive GAAP and cash rent growth numbers, inking a whopping 1,000,000 square feet of re lets and capturing 1,000,000 square feet of 1st gen leases. We are excited to kick off 2019 with a 3rd consecutive dividend increase and improved organic growth outlook and sustained optimism around our development platform, including our 2019 scheduled deliveries of $195,000,000 encompassing 551,000 square feet that are 100% pre leased.
I'll now turn the call over to Ted. Thanks, Ed, and good morning. After over a year of HQ2 suspense, we're excited Amazon selected Nashville for its operations center of excellence. This speaks to the strength of the Nashville market and it will be next door to our 553,000 square foot Asurion headquarters development and our 1100 Broadway site where we can build up to 1,200,000 square feet of office. Amazon's announcement is just one of the many stories shining a spotlight on our Southeastern footprint, which benefits from high quality of life, low business costs and access to well educated talent pools.
We expect continued interest in our markets as economic fundamentals remain strong. Demand is healthy across our footprint, while supply remains generally in check. In addition to healthy market fundamentals, we are optimistic about our portfolio and exploration outlook. We made meaningful progress in 2018, reducing future near term rollover risk by locking in several large 2019 2020 renewals. At year end 2018, our 2019 expirations represented 8.9% of annualized cash revenue, which is approximately 110 basis points below where the average was the prior 2 years.
Turning to the 4th quarter. We had strong leasing, evidenced by beating our prior 5 quarter averages on several fronts. 384,000 square feet of new second generation leases was a 65% beat. $16 per square foot net effective rents was a 6.3% beat. 20.2 percent GAAP rent spreads was a 330 basis point beat and 5.8 percent cash rent spreads was a 3 40 basis point beat.
Our 4th quarter same property cash NOI was positive 1.5% despite lower average occupancy compared to last year. This growth was driven by annual bumps on nearly all of our leases and solid rent spreads on commenced leases. In 2019, we expect same property NOI growth to accelerate over 2018. Our portfolio occupancy improved 60 basis points from the end of the Q3, mostly attributed to new starts in Tampa, Atlanta and Richmond. Our portfolio overall ended the year at 91.9% and 6 of our 9 divisions were above 92%.
Atlanta and Raleigh were the only 2 divisions where occupancy was below 90%. And given these are our 2 largest divisions by square footage, they represent sizable organic growth potential. After taking care of 3 of the 5 2019 expirations greater than 100,000 square feet earlier in 2018, we were only left with FAA and T Mobile going into the Q4 2018. The FAA lease is scheduled to expire in 4Q 2019, and we remain confident in signing a long term renewal. With T Mobile, we executed a short term extension, taking their 116,000 square foot lease through the end of the Q1 2020.
We now have 5 quarters before T Mobile vacates and given our lead time combined with a healthy parking ratio and efficient floor plate at Preserve 5, we expect good interest in the space. As is a normal pattern for us, we do expect occupancy to dip early in the year and then recover in the latter part of the year. We expect year end occupancy of 91.25 percent to 92.75 percent, with a midpoint of 92%. While early in the year, we feel good about the interest we're seeing in the few large vacancies in our portfolio. Now to our markets.
Atlanta posted positive net absorption of 331,000 square feet in the Q4, as reported by CBRE. We are tracking 3,300,000 square feet of development underway, which is around 30% pre leased. This approximates 2% of total stock. Midtown, rapidly growing in its appeal and vibrancy as evidenced by significant recent announcements, accounts for nearly half of this new supply. We signed 300,000 square feet of 2nd generation leases during the quarter with 16.9% GAAP rent spreads.
We continue to make progress releasing the 137,000 Square Foot FBI vacated in Century Center in 2018. As mentioned previously, we've re leased 32% and now have signed LOIs take us to 83%. We've also had strong leasing in Buckhead the past two quarters and are now stabilized at 1 and 2 Alliance and Monarch Tower. We're heavily focused on leasing up the remaining approximately 100,000 square feet in Monarch Plaza, where we're seeing significant interest. Lastly, Riverwood 200, which you may recall we started 39% pre leased, is currently 91.4% leased, up 120 basis points from the last quarter and is expected to stabilize in 2Q 'nineteen.
The overall Raleigh market garnered 944,000 square feet of positive net absorption during the quarter for Avison Young. Class A asking rates have increased 8% year over year and overall Class A market occupancy is unchanged over the same period, ending the year at 90%. There are 2,200,000 square feet approximately under of office space under construction, which is approximately 55% pre leased. This represents 4.5 percent of total stock and is spread across 6 submarkets. We signed 93,000 square feet of 2nd generation leases during the Q4 at robust GAAP rent spreads of 21.1%.
We have seen steady interest in the 178,000 Square Foot 11000 Weston property previously occupied by Fidelity. We have over 500,000 square feet of prospects, including both single building and multi customer users. We are encouraged by the level of interest we've seen and look forward to converting this space into signed leases. Our 751 Corporate Center development, which was 35.3% pre leased at announcement, is currently 98 point 4% leased, up from 87.6% at 3Q. The project will stabilize during the Q1 of 2019, more than a year ahead of pro form a.
Nashville posted positive net absorption of 181,000 square feet during the quarter, as reported by CBRE. Market occupancy ended the year at 90%, an improvement of 20 basis points from last quarter. We are currently tracking 2,500,000 square feet of competitive spec space, around 10% of competitive stock that is currently 17% pre leased. We expect approximately 1,000,000 square feet will deliver in 2019 is currently 39% pre leased. We signed 120,000 square feet of second generation leases at strong GAAP rent spreads of 32.1%.
As a reminder, Virginia Springs 1, which was 34% pre leased at announcement, is now 100% leased and will be placed in service during the Q1, more than a year ahead of pro form a. Lastly, Tampa experienced positive net absorption of 136,000 square feet for the year, as reported by Cushman Wakefield. This was driven by strong gains in Westshore and Downtown, partially offset by negative net absorption elsewhere in the market. Class A rental rates were up 3.6% compared to a year ago. Approximately 580,000 square feet is currently under construction, less than 2% of total stock.
We signed 189,000 square feet of 2nd generation leases at 23.8 percent GAAP rent spreads and ended the year at 95.3 percent occupied, up 2 40 basis points since last quarter. The most activity was at SunTrust Financial Center in downtown, where occupancy finished in the high 90s. We've substantially outpaced our occupancy and run rate expectations since acquiring the property in 2015. In conclusion, we had a strong year of leasing, driven by robust rent spreads and de risking our future exploration schedule. As we start 2019, the environment remains healthy and
is indicative of continued demand for quality, well located office product. Mark? Thanks, Ted. As Ed and Ted outlined, 2018 was a productive year for our company. Our financial performance was strong as we delivered FFO of $3.45 per share towards the high end of our original range.
The upside compared to our original outlook was driven by higher than expected GAAP NOI. During the year, we also announced $285,000,000 of 98.3 percent pre leased development and delivered $85,000,000 of projects that were 99.6 percent leased. For the 4th quarter, we delivered net income of $0.51 per share and FFO of $0.86 per share. There weren't any sizable unusual items in the 4th quarter and for the first time in 2018, Q4 included no unusual items related to 11,000 Weston. As a reminder, we recognized restoration fees in Q1 and Q2 and we received accelerated rent payments in Q3.
We did recognize a small land impairment charge that netted to less than 0.5p of FFO impact related to a non core industrial land parcel in Atlanta that we expect to sell in 2019. We also sold $55,000,000 of non core properties, which closed late in the 4th quarter and therefore didn't meaningfully impact our Q4 financial results. We estimate the full year dilutive impact of these sales at approximately $0.02 per share. We provided our initial 2019 FFO outlook of $3.44 to 3.56 dollars per share. At the midpoint, FFO is up approximately 1.5%, but as Ed highlighted, this would have been up 3.8 percent after adjusting for several items that distort the year over year FFO comparison.
These items include $0.036 per share of restoration fees related to 11,000 Weston recognized in 2018 that will not be recognized in $2,019.22 per share impact from certain in house leasing costs that will be expensed in 2019, which were previously capitalized and $0.0109 per share from the dilutive impact of the late 2018 dispositions. Our outlook for 2019 same property cash NOI growth is 2% to 3%. We posted 0.7% growth in 2018 or 1.1% when adjusting for the impact of the disposition of Highwoods Preserve 1 in the Q4 of 2018 that wasn't in our outlook. The improvement in same property cash NOI growth in 2019 is driven by continued growth in rents, holding the line on OpEx, partially offset by modestly lower average occupancy. We expect same property growth to start low and improve steadily as we move throughout 2019.
Our year end occupancy target is 91.25 to 92.75. We expect occupancy will dip early in the year before recovering in the second half. Finally, related to our outlook items, we expect G and A in the range of $40,500,000 to $42,500,000 Adjusting for the new GAAP requirement to expense certain in house leasing costs, our 2019 G and A would be down 2% at the midpoint of our outlook. As you know, these previously capitalized costs were recognized as leasing costs in our CAD reconciliation and therefore won't impact any prior year comparisons to CAD. Last night, we also announced an increase in our annualized dividend from 1.85 dollars per share to 1 $0.90 per share.
Our strengthening cash flow outlook is bolstered by $195,000,000 of 100 percent pre leased development scheduled to deliver in 2019. When evaluating the dividend, we balance our needs for capital investment in the portfolio and our taxable income levels. We maintained our fortress balance sheet in 20 18, while investing heavily in our development pipeline. We invested approximately $195,000,000 in development projects during the year, acquired a $25,000,000 well located development site in CBD, Nashville, sold $86,000,000 of non core properties and issued no shares on the ATM, all while holding our debt plus preferred to EBITDA ratio steady at 4.8 times. We haven't issued any shares on the ATM since the second quarter of 2017.
We're committed to grow within our targeted debt to EBITDAre operating range of 4.5x to 5.5x and have the flexibility to fund the remaining 330,000,000 dollars on our current development pipeline without the prerequisite of issuing shares or selling assets. We remain confident in our ability to fund our growth initiatives and maintain a strong balance sheet. Finally, as we mentioned previously, we obtained $150,000,000 of forward starting swaps that lock the underlying 10 year treasury. And in the 4th quarter, we obtained another $75,000,000 of forward starting swaps. So we now have $225,000,000 of notional principal that locks the U.
S. Tenure at 2.86 percent in advance of a potential financing before July of 2019. If we move forward with the financing, we would expect to use the proceeds to repay our $225,000,000 term loan that matures in June of 2020 and reduce borrowings on the line of credit. A potential long term financing has been contemplated in our outlook range. Operator, we are now ready for your questions.
Thank you very much. And our first question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you and good morning. I just wanted to get your thoughts on just you think about you talked about some of the larger leases you're looking to backfill or largest vacancies you're looking to backfill. Can you just talk us through how you thought about that for guidance?
Hey, Jamie, it's Brendan. Yes, so we've got in terms of the guidance outlook for the end of the year, 91.25 percent to 92.75 percent. So there's a pretty wide range that's there. And it includes a variety of lease up scenarios within there. And so I think we have general expectation that we would backfill a good portion of some of the larger vacancies that we talked about.
And Ted ran through some of that in his prepared remarks. But there's I mean, there's a variety of stuff that's out there. So I think that probably gives you a sense of where we are, but we've done well in terms of the interest and commitments that we have at the FBI space in Century Center. And then I guess the other big one that maybe we would speak about would be Fidelity at 11,000 Westin in Raleigh, where at the midpoint of the range, we've got probably a little bit scheduled to come online by year end, but I wouldn't say that it was a major driver of the range in terms of one way or the other.
Okay. And I'm sorry, in terms of FBI, you're saying you did include that or you didn't include that?
Yes. As Ted mentioned, we've got a lot of that under LOI. So I think we're about 83% in terms of committed under LOI. So we do have a good portion of that coming into, occupancy by the end of the year as reported in the outlook or as given in the outlook.
Okay, by year end. And then the T Mobile space, I mean, what how much of an impact do you think that is on NOI? I know you said 1Q 'twenty that's a move out now. What do you think the impact is on same store on NOI overall?
Well, it's 0 for 'nineteen because they're into we were able to extend them out into April of 2020.
Yes, Jamie. So I guess
if your question is, what would the impact be upon vacate and assuming no backfill on that for a year, it's probably in the range of 60 basis points to 75 basis points on same store. In that, I'd say probably 60 basis points to 70 basis points would be a full year impact in terms of just no re let on that space. But as Ted mentioned, that will be through the Q1 of 2020. So even in 2020 with no backfill of that space, we'd still have a partial year NOI from T Mobile. Okay.
And are there any other known move outs now in 'twenty that are sizable? I know it's a ways off.
Jamie, it's Ted. Not really. In 2020, we've only got 3 leases that expire greater than 100,000 square feet. We feel good about 2 of them. The third is T Mobile, which we know is going to be a move out.
So of the large upcoming 2020 renewals, we feel good about our largest ones.
Okay. And then I guess in terms of the Nashville land site, the 1,200,000 square feet, I mean how do you think about putting that to work now? Is this something that you kind of want to see how Amazon plays out and how fast they grow or you'd be willing to put that to work soon? What's your strategy there given that this could be a very long term play?
Yes, Jamie, it's Ed. So I think the way that we consider that track is that we would want a meaningful anchor customer before we started that building. So we are well advanced in our design development concepts. The property that equates to the 1, 2 is really 2 towers on a eventually combined podium, so we can do it in smaller segments. But given the volume of spec construction that is underway in downtown now, even with Amazon stepping in for what they're going to occupy and the inertia that they bring to the submarket.
I think we would be cautious about starting anything with a significant amount of spec space downtown today. But we are pleased to have a very attractive design and the capability to pull the trigger if we were fortunate to secure a major anchor customer.
Okay. Thank you. And then just last question for me is on your build to suit pipeline. Any thoughts or can you provide any color on what markets you think some of those projects might be in?
Well, it really comes back to those which are most active, which are Raleigh, Nashville, Atlanta, Tampa, Pittsburgh, where we have the most conversations ongoing. We have appropriate land sites. We have building designs. We're in the hunt. As you know, you never know when a prospect becomes an actual customer for us or anyone else and that oftentimes they start out considering what tax incentives they can secure and doing certain demographic studies.
But we are in our routine number of conversations with prospective users that, as we've said in the past, you may or may not come to fruition for the market or for us, but we do have a similar amount of conversations ongoing with prospective users that we typically do.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Sure. Thank you.
And the next question is from Manny Korchman with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning everyone. Ed, going back to your comment on the acquisition guidance, which has been the same last few years, but you have not found anything. What is it that maybe specifically is precluding you from buying? Are you just getting outbid or assets that's not meeting your quality criteria? And then how much of that makes you look at new markets, if any?
So you did a great job really of answering the question. You're spot on. It's either quality and that could be from when it was developed and the quality could relate to the pure design development and there'd be issues with regard to floor plates or ingresssegress or adequate parking or how the building looks and or functions. And then the second, there have been some buildings that we would like to own because we find the quality attractive, But the bid number, it's not that we can't afford it, but I don't think that we would be good allocators of capital if we invested at those certain numbers because it takes such a long time for it to get to a point where we think it yields the appropriate return. And oftentimes, even at that, your underwriting has to be darn near perfect in order to achieve those acceptable returns.
So given the volume of cash that remains on the sideline, certainly we're seeing the number of bidders in the bidder pool to be less than what we saw a number of years ago, but very, very capable bidders and it just gets to a number that we become uncomfortable with. The third part of your question with regard to other markets, it's really not we're looking at other markets as a result of the guidance that we've provided for acquisitions for now 3 consecutive years. We've routinely been doing that. And I know it's been a while since we went into a new market when we went into Pittsburgh in 2011. But we make a routine exercise at looking at other markets that make sense for us, both in scale and demographics and proximity.
And so that's something that we routinely have ongoing. We just need to find the right opportunity from a price point and scale so that we can go in and establish a beachhead.
Thanks for that. And then Ted, maybe digging a little bit deeper into Jamie's question. When you think about the requirements that you're seeing, whether it be for build to suits or backfill, how many of those are out of market or new to market tenants that are looking to relocate? And has the pace of or the volume of tenants looking to move out of a market into one of yours changed recently?
Sure. Really, it varies by market, Manny. It's a couple of our larger new deals we signed 4th quarter, one was a
That was, I
think, our 2nd largest new deal. So, That was probably, I think, our 2nd largest new deal. So it's really a mix of out of market and moving different submarkets within the same submarket. So we're seeing some of that as well. So it's intra submarket move as well as seeing still continued good demand from out of market customers.
Certainly in Atlanta, Nashville and Raleigh, probably the 3 most that we're seeing out of market moves. Specifically in Raleigh, we're seeing a lot of technology companies that are typically based have been based in California that maybe a couple of years ago set up shop in one of the co working shops and they've outgrown that and now they're looking to direct with us. So we've probably seen 7 or 8 of those in the last year or so. So really it differs by market. And we're seeing it from our own customers as well, still pretty good organic growth and expansions throughout our portfolio.
Thank you.
Thanks, Manny.
And our next question is from Rob Stevenson with Janney. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. What are the current stabilized yield expectations on the $487,000,000 development pipeline? And where are you expecting the new Glenlake project to come out?
So, Rob, as you know, we don't give returns specifically by project because we find ourselves almost routinely in conversations with prospective users and working with the brokerage community. So we really try not to pit one against another. But we have disclosed and we have achieved a 8 plus percent GAAP return on our development projects and we've been able to do that for a sustained period of time and that's what we continue to underwrite to.
Okay. And the increase in material and labor costs, has it materially impacted that?
Well, it has. It's just become more expensive for the user. Okay. But it has we have not compromised on our return. It's just a matter of backing into the number.
Okay. And then you guys did 2.8% same store expense growth in 2018 after about 90 basis points in 2017 and 30 basis points in 2016. In your 2% to 3% same store NOI guidance, does that assume that expenses normalize back down to a lower level or is the sort of current 2% to 3% expense growth the new norm in your markets these days?
Hey, Rob, it's Brendan. I think it's in the 2.5% range is generally what we've assumed with respect to OpEx growth in that outlook range that we provided. So we'd say that that's an inflationary level increase, a normalized level of increase. And so I think that's what that's probably what you should expect with top line roughly mimicking that at the midpoint of the range.
And a good component of that, Rob, comes from real estate taxes and then the labor portion that we need in the way of janitorial,
sort of flat year for G and A expenses for you guys. You've been like $37,500,000 to $40,000,000 in each of the last 4 years. You talk about how you're doing that given the tight labor market and what sort of pressures you're seeing there?
We all have high mileage cars. We feel like we have a very strong base in the way of the systems and people that we have in place. We have reduced our amount of overall square footage and building count and we've migrated towards more square footage in a single address versus where we were some time ago with a lot of smaller buildings. Our lease terms have been extended. So we think with the platform of people and systems and the migration from smaller buildings to bigger buildings and longer lease term has helped us do that.
Okay. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.
Thanks Rob.
And the next question is from Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo. Go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning. So just to follow-up on the market by market discussion and demand you're seeing maybe for Ed or Ted. Can you just go through your expectations for rent growth in your top markets in 2019 and possibly rank them from strongest to weakest?
Sure. I may put them in a couple of different buckets. But certainly, I think the strongest markets today would be Nashville, Raleigh. Tampa might be the top 3, followed closely by Atlanta. And then really the other markets are probably grouped together, a little bit slow growth, but they're just slow and steady.
So we're seeing, I'd say, 2% to 5% across the portfolio, the upper end the first 3 or 4 markets I mentioned and the others are in that probably 2% to 3% range. But in general, all of our markets are healthy today. We're seeing demand and tour activity is good across our markets, both from existing customers needing to expand potential new customers and out of market new prospects. I think just our leasing teams are doing a heck of a job capturing the demand that's in the market.
All right, great. And then for Mark or Brendan, I just wanted to touch a little bit more on the same store NOI cadence throughout the year. You guys seem to be coming into the year a little bit below the midpoint of 2019 guidance. And I'm assuming you guys are still anticipating and how much of an acceleration we should expect in same store in the back half of the year from higher occupancy and increased cash flow?
Yes, Blayne, it's Mark. You are correct. We do expect and you heard it in the prepared comments that we expect the NOI to accelerate through the year. So we're giving you the range of 2% to 3% same store number. But you're right, it should improve over the year as straight line burns off and some of the concessions go away.
Also operating expenses, keeping those under control is important to us. So I think that's what you should see as a ramp up through the second half of
the year. And Blayne, I'll just to give a little bit of specifics in terms of some of the trend lines and how we're thinking about that. So and this is to follow-up with Rob's question as well. So we do expect that occupancy on a year over year basis for same store 2019 versus 2018 to be a little bit lower, which if you think about the occupancy trends that we had in the portfolio in 20 18, we started the year high, we ended 2017 at 92.9%, and then we ended 2018 at 91.9%. So as we move throughout the year over year comparisons, it's a little bit lower on occupancy in the same store pool 2019 versus 2018.
And from a straight line perspective, there's not a big headwind or tailwind. It's not a big impact in terms of kind of overall for the overall year. But as Mark mentioned, that tends to get more favorable as we move towards the back half of the year and the occupancy headwinds are more pronounced in the beginning part of the year than they are in the latter part of the year. And so that's what we think in terms of what you'll see trajectory wise. Okay.
That's helpful. Thanks.
And our last question comes from Dave Rodgers with Baird. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, guys. Ted, I
just wanted to start with you.
Just in terms of tenant decision making, are you seeing any changes, elongation, shortening of the period of time that taking tenants to make decisions and kind of your showings, etcetera?
I think across the board, probably not a whole lot of change. I will say that we're in discussions with the GSA on a few renewals and that did get slowed down over the last month or so. But I think in general, probably on par with the last few years, Really not seeing a whole lot of change. But it is deal by deal. There's times that we think a deal is going to get done pretty quick and it ends up taking quite a bit longer.
But I don't think it's a trend we're seeing.
Dave, I would footnote to that that there was a very measurable sea change that occurred after the global financial crisis that our prospects and customers became much more deliberate in the way that they decided how much space they would take. And there's a significant effort toward space programming and designing efficient uses in floor plates today versus before that. Before that, it wasn't cavalier, but it was a cowboyish
than it
is now. It's a very protracted, deliberate process. And I think that the commitment to that is sustained since 2000 and nine-twenty ten era.
Great. Well, that's helpful both of you. Thank you. Can you talk a little bit about any changes in construction that you're seeing as well as land cost changes? Is it some of those increases abating or they've been pretty consistent?
They've been pretty consistent. On the construction side, we've been saying for some time now, it's about 0.5% a year and that has varied by line item depending like as an example, much more labor sensitive now than it was at the start of this climb. And it's varied from different commodities from glass to steel to lumber, etcetera. But labor is a very significant component of that right now. But again, as I mentioned in an earlier answer, we factor that in.
And as a result, those who are looking for 1st gen space are clearly having to pay a premium to move into that. But I don't think that it's anything that varies dramatically from one corner of the country to the other. We're all generally buying out of the same pool. So that just kind of makes it soggy on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Great. And then, Ed, maybe a last question for me. Just in an answer to an earlier question, you mentioned kind of less bidders in the pool for acquisitions that you're competing against, but still being pretty well healed. But in terms of less bidders, does that make you think more aggressively about kind of exiting some of the non core assets and non core markets here in the near term and maybe beating that disposition range as you think about kind of beating those bidders to the punch?
Yes, that's a good strategy, Dave. Unfortunately, we don't find a significant amount of crossover between those buying that we're selling that are from the lower end of the quality versus the top end of the quality. So those that we're competing with, as you say, who are well heeled and and capable for the institutional quality trophy urban asset versus some of what we've been selling, it's a bit of a different buyer pool. So we're seeing cap rates in the mid-7s to mid-8s on what we're selling. And obviously, a much smaller scale versus what we're seeing on those we compete with for the Trophy assets.
I mean, there are good there is a good bidder pool, but it's just a different composition.
And I do think we've talked about whether cycles are getting elongated or not. I do think on some of the dispos, sales cycle for some of the stuff we're selling can be longer certainly than what it would be on an acquisition for the type of properties we're buying.
Our next question is a follow-up from Jamie Feldman with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. I just want to get your latest thoughts on co working or flexible lease providers. And just as you guys think about how they how your market the adaptation or the acceptance of you guys and even competitive landlords in your markets has changed in the last couple of years? Maybe if you could just kind of walk through what you think the current state of affairs is and what we should expect to see?
Sure. As you stated, the co working industry, it just continues to evolve at a very rapid pace. And it's sort of part of the overall change, I think, going on with the traditional office model. Companies are understanding that their office space, they need to recruit and retain the best talent and therefore they're going to highly amenitized spaces, some within co working, some not. And the co working model itself has changed and it started out going for the individual small companies and the sole proprietors.
They're now moving quickly into the enterprise, what they call the enterprise business model targeting medium and large companies. So it's changing. I think more landlords today are more interested in the model. I think this model is here to stay, co working is here to stay. And I think landlords are understanding that and therefore looking to partner with some co working operators.
There's lots of different ways people are doing it. But I do think it's aggregating a lot of the demand that is looking for that kind of space. So from our standpoint, how we look at it, we've done 6 transactions with co working operators, just a reminder, in 5 different markets. And it's been a great experience so far. I think it's been good for both the customer as well as us.
And as we've said on previous calls, even earlier this call, we've been fortunate to capture demand from several companies that have outgrown their co working space. So it's been advantageous to have them in our buildings. I think we've got examples in probably all of our markets where companies have come to us after they've outgrown their space. So, continues to change. I think it's going to continue to accelerate the pace of change and it's again something we continue to watch.
And Jamie, I would just add to that, that from a scale perspective, the average footprint of the six leases that we've done that Ted referenced is 29,000 square feet. So we're not the 125, 150 in our footprint. It represents only 0.85 percent of our annualized revenues. I'd also say that we're trying to be very sensitive to what it does to the customer mix and be sure that we don't do a co working lease to the detriment of the rest of our customers in the building. So we're very careful about the mix and the scale of how much co working space is taken in comparison to the building community as a whole.
And then maybe the last thing I would just footnote is the thing about co working space in my view is that there is no patent on that. I mean they don't have the secret sauce to Coca Cola or bone sucking sauce up here. This is an item that we could replicate to some degree in a plug and play type environment by creating a communal place. We may not go to the extent of having the bowl of granola bars in the concierge, but there is a plug and play way for we as traditional landlords to be able to offer our customer base a product that's akin to co working.
That's great color. Thank you. So I guess that last point you made, Ed, I mean, does that mean what does that mean in terms of spending and additional CapEx needs?
Well, I think that the way that if we were to do some of the space, which we're working on, we probably wouldn't do it quite as small a scale by desk, by chair. It'd be more a small open suite that abuts to another small open suite for the full plate and then we'd have some communal area where they could collaborate or relax or get away from their work table. But these leases that we've done have been straight up leases. We don't have any leases that are the management agreement type leases. We have one that's a hybrid, but there's a base rate in place.
So I think when you do the management, that's when you really need to think that carefully given the volume of CapEx that you need to outlay and what you're getting in the way of the return in base rent not being there versus you have kind of an interest in the business.
Okay. So I should take that to mean you're probably not going to do those types of leases?
Well, I think never say never. I wouldn't want to say that, but we certainly haven't to date. But I just don't want to say never.
And gentlemen, those are all the questions we have. I'll turn the call back over to you for any closing remarks.
Again, thank you, everyone, for dialing in your good questions. As always, we're available for any other questions that you may have. Thanks so much.
And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call today. We thank you for your participation. Everyone have a great rest of your day and you may disconnect your line.