If I get your attention, first, thank everybody for coming. It's great to be back for one session this conference. It's much improved with Patrick here. Like as Brian introduced, 24, 25 years ago, we started this conference. The focus the entire time has been electronic trading and the advancement in electronic trading, whether it be retail, exchanges, trading companies, crypto, et cetera. I couldn't be more pleased to introduce the next speaker who brought automation to the options market, Mr. Thomas Peterffy. Thomas, I'm proud to also serve on his board in full disclosure. Thomas brought automation to the options market. He founded Interactive Brokers in 1993, I believe. It went public.
1970, 1977.
The predecessor, Timber Hill.
Right.
We're proud to have assisted him in bringing the company public here at Piper Sandler back in 2007. He stepped down, but I can tell you as a board, he's an active, very active chairman of the company. I'm going to start, Thomas, just to talk broadly and just talk about the economy because I think we've been in one of the most unique markets, paying attention to headlines, watching the volatility. You've had a good sort of view and grip on it. What are you thinking about tariffs, interest rates, et cetera, the presidential, what do you call it, impacts on the marketplace? Just as a leader of a major broker, what's your view on the marketplace and what's going on?
I just happened to be on Fox Business on April 7th as the market was violently crashing. It made a lower on 48.50 on the S&P index. I just couldn't understand why everybody saw the situation as dark as they did. I couldn't go along with the idea that Trump was just a crazy man all set to destroy the United States. We have seen Trump as president for four years being dragged through the mud with these insane Russia hooks and constantly attacked with many other things, even worse than he is today. In spite of that, he was able to keep his bits about him, and he had done a good job overall during his tenure. My opinion of him is that he's very street smart and has remarkable memory.
It serves him extremely well in forming relationships and helps him keep in mind all the myriads of issues he undertakes to deal with. The first four years were a great training ground for him, and I think he will be a very good president in the second four years. For these reasons, what I saw in the markets that day was completely unwarranted. I believe that over time, more and more people will be able to overcome his sometimes irritating and upsetting rhetoric and come over to my views of him. When you think about tariffs and Trump, you must keep in mind that he only has a year and a half until the midterms to deal with the issues, and he does not have the time to pussyfoot around.
You must understand his mindset, which is that when he says about what he is going to do is just a negotiating stance for the moment. He always maintains the right to change his mind. I think that tariff issues will be largely resolved for the most part fairly soon, although it will have a very long tail and counterparties for a long time will not know for sure what the deal is that they have really made. As far as the U.S. economy is concerned, the issue will have been resolved soon thereafter and very favorably for the U.S. That is the reason why I called for the greatest bull market on April 7th. I think Trump will try to run the economy at a rapid rate.
I think it will be good for business and better for opportunity-seeking, nimble businesses than stodgy older ones. I think he will not view the deficits as seriously as many conservatives. I think deficits will be rising and inflation will rise along with it, but the economy will be very productive and business will, unbalance, do very well over the next three years.
It looks, Thomas, like you've embedded—that's an interesting view. It looks like you've embedded volatility, that volatility given the president and given the uncertainty over many things. I think most people in the room know volatility is good for the trading markets. I want to just turn to something more specifically to Interactive, but that's the retail environment. It's been super strong. As I talked to people in the hallway, they're just amazed that Interactive can put on account growth at 30% a year, that the velocity of trading is up. If that's your view of the economy, what's your view of the retail trader and sort of the sustainability of this hyperactivity we've seen really for the last six months, if not more?
Obviously, my view of the economy is that it's colored by the picture I just painted. I think my thinking about the markets and retail and also professional investors who are the most important segment of our Interactive Brokers customer base, I would say that about 20-30%, 25-30% of our clients are institutional or professional investors and traders, and the remaining 70-75% are retail. I include financial professionals, individual accounts in professional as opposed to retail. While the retail segment is much larger than the professional segment, our customers are what it is really the professional segment that determines how well our business is doing.
With that said, and given my expectations for a very good business environment and rising markets, not only driven by business performance, but also by inflation, I expect a happy customer base, more people coming into the markets, especially the U.S. markets from all over the world. I also think that other markets around the world will not be as good as the U.S. markets. This is due to deglobalization, the tariffs, and also to indecision on part of many countries about the rules for business and the question about social divisions and to what extent they want to control their economy by their governments. In other words, business in other countries will continue to be restrained by uncertainty of laws and protection of private property and the tendency to redistribute profits and limit the growth of private enterprise.
For the past 12 months, ending in May, our customer accounts have grown by 32%, account equity by 29%, commissions by 32%, and interest income by 31%. This is a very stable picture, and I expect it to continue at somewhat lower rates in the first, as the first half of the year tends to be somewhat better than the second half. In other words, from here, continuing for the next six months, it will be lower, and then it will pick up again. Then we'll be sitting here a year from now, I think the numbers will be pretty much the same.
Nice. Given all the activity, there's a lot of attention in the space. I just want to ask you about competition. You have Robinhood as a competitor who has done a lot of things to bring, as they claim, democratize the markets. You get a new company coming. It just came public, eToro. Thomas, how do you think about competition as you see these other companies spring up, I guess?
The brokerage business has always been competitive. Over the past 30 years, the business has gone digital. Many firms who did not convert in time have folded or got merged into other firms. Currently, all the large well-performing businesses are digital, but to a greater or lesser extent. I, of course, strongly believe that in order to remain in the game over the next two decades, you must be on the forefront of technology to be easily able to incorporate new technologies and to be able to offer those to your customers without much disruption. I'm fairly certain that IBKR is well positioned for that, but I think it's extremely important to be constantly embracing and adopting new technologies.
As far as your question about HOOD and eToro is concerned, given the price-earnings ratio of 45 for HOOD, and I do not know what it is for eToro, the market certainly believes that they have a much superior future to that of IBKR. I certainly go along with the notion that they are both great companies, but which one of us will eventually turn out to be the highest growth and best earner? Your guess is as good as mine, but you know where I keep my money.
It's done very well. Since we're on the topic of growth and we are ticking down here in time, but two areas of growth, and if you're following the retail markets and trade, but this idea or phenomenon of 24-hour trading is one if you could just touch on that. The other, I know you're excited about this, but it's ForecastEx . It's the new event sort of futures platform that you launched.
Okay. 24-hour trading, we were a bit mistreated by markets and the news about 24-hour trading because we have made our markets available for 24 hours a day to our customers well before anybody else has done. It is always about Robinhood. At any rate, 24-hour trading has become more and more acceptable. This is a genie that I think would be very, very difficult to put back into the bottle. 24-hour trading is obviously very important to many people in the far Middle and Near East, much more so than in the U.S. or even in Europe. Our experience shows that volumes are rising extremely fast. Other institutions and exchanges are waking up to this reality. I think that in three to five years, the overnight sessions will be just as liquid as markets currently are between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M.
In May, 2.2% of our volume was done in overnight trading. I expect this number to rise to about 25-30% in the next 20 years. Now, as far as ForecastEx , on the long run, people, I think, must be under three major fundamental forces. Number one is the environment as it's shaped by the climate. And here, I'd like to show you a chart, if I may. You guys have that chart?
I think they do. Are they? I think there's a.
I wanted to know the truth about climate change and leave the politics out of it. Over the past 100 years, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose from 305 to 425 parts per million. Global temperatures increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius, about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and sea level has risen by about 9 in. These changes happen gradually, though a little faster in recent decades. There's no question that climate change is happening, but how big a problem is climate change? Will it speed up or slow down? Interactive Brokers created Forecast Trader so you can follow the data and forecast future outcomes. You can buy yes or no answers. If you're right, you earn a dollar per contract. How big a problem is climate change? Stay engaged. Go to ibkr.com/climate and look at the data. Be part of the decision. Buy your forecast.
Let's build a consensus and then decide what to do next.
Climate change is certainly one of the big questions. The second, of course, is the various factors in the economy which determines our means and boundaries. Thirdly, politics. Politics and the economy is certainly, and to an undetermined extent, the climate is under our control. It is under our control communally and not individually. The question is how to provide the individuals in our society with a tool to be able to exert their control over these forces in unison, in a coordinated manner while still under their own individual self-determination. The broad answer is that market forces direct us, but these forces are not sufficiently explicit to answer each individual's questions about what to do and when and how to do it to maximize their own contributions and their own benefits. Forecast Trader is an attempt to go some way in that direction.
We provide users with the historical data and current estimates of future data points, asking questions and giving feedback to users about coming events, unbiased consensus opinions about the decisions they need to make in their lives. As the questions and tools evolve, we intend to come ever closer to each individual and their particular situation to enable them to find the optimal decisions about how, in view of their own needs and capabilities, they can contribute the most and maximize the benefits they receive. In the long run, forecast contracts will be a hedging tool for professional users and analytical decision-making tools for individuals.
Thanks, Thomas. We brought multimedia to the conference here. We're going to skip a couple. I think people should know, if you don't know, IBKR is going to do a stock split on June 18th. We've talked about valuation as well. Just given the amount of time, I want to get to what I think is the most interesting question to end up with. That's about American or U.S. exceptionalism. IBKR, as I think I pretty well know, is unique in that it contributes to U.S. exceptionalism. It's a global broker that is all over the world, is looked at as a leading broker headquartered here in the U.S. It also benefits because global investors, as you have many times disclosed, trade U.S. stocks. That's the predominant thing. The question is, what do you believe the standing of the U.S., U.S. exceptionalism, will it continue?
Will people continue to want to invest as aggressively in the U.S. as prior?
I'm a firm believer in American exceptionalism. In my view, this exceptionalism rests on three unshakable foundations, each unique, each enduring, and unlikely to falter in the near foreseeable future. First, geography. The United States is blessed with vast, fertile land, abundant natural resources, and two oceans that buffer it from many global threats. It has ideal climate zones, navigable rivers, and internal trade routes that have fueled prosperity. Unique geography has not only protected the nation, but also enabled its rise as an economic and military powerhouse. Second, the Constitution. More than a governing document, the U.S. Constitution is the bedrock of a stable and enduring democratic experiment. It limits power, protects freedom, and provides the flexibility needed to adapt over the centuries.
Crucially, it lays down the ideal legal foundation for the evolution of a free market economy, one designed not for the benefit of the state, but for the empowerment and prosperity of a free people. It is the reason the United States has achieved continuity without stagnation and order without tyranny. Third, and most importantly, the people. Above all, it is the American people, diverse, ambitious, restless, who made the nation exceptional. These are not just empty phrases. There is solid evidence and reason for this. U.S. citizens are a unique assembly, the descendants of individuals who at some point in their lives had the courage and enterprising spirit to leave their familiar homes behind in search of opportunities determined to succeed in a new and different land. That spirit, indeed, the very DNA of boldness, curiosity, and aspiration is inherited.
It has been passed on through the generations, and it continues to be renewed and strengthened by a constant infusion of newly arriving individuals who come to America in search of opportunity. With a culture that prizes innovation, resilience, and individual liberty, Americans have repeatedly reshaped the world in technology, economics, and ideas. The spirit does not wane. It will endure. Given my belief in American exceptionalism, it is clear to me that the U.S. economy will continue to prevail in the world. U.S. stocks will keep on rising for a long time. Investors from all over the world will keep on investing their excess funds in the United States.
That's a wrap. Thank you, Thomas. It's been a flashback. You've contributed in Interactive Brokers, in my opinion. As a Hungarian immigrant that founded this company, a leading global broker, have contributed to U.S. exceptionalism as well. So thank you.
Thank you.