Joining me here today is Matt Fort, VP of investor relations. We're going to do a little bit of a fireside chat here, go through a few of the questions that I have, and then we'll open it up for Q&A as well if there's an opportunity. I guess the first thing I kind of want to start out with was just as we close out the August period, can you kind of comment on the current trends you're seeing in the business? Any sort of thoughts on what's happening in the world right now as we stand?
Yeah, and thank you for having us. I appreciate it. What I would say is that the last update we gave, Vicente talked about, and we really focus on marketing qualified leads or MQL activity, and Vicente had mentioned that MQL activities remained relatively consistent as we moved in from Q2 and into early Q3, and we have no real major changes there, so pretty consistent, no updates.
So, no early areas of softening or areas of acceleration that you kind of wanted to point out, or is there parts of the market or parts of your, because I feel like you have such a broad base of customers and markets that you serve. Is there any particular areas that are specific to call out here at this point?
Yeah, we don't really guide on end markets at that point in time. But to your point, I would say that that is certainly a strength of ours where we have a broad base of end markets. And again, our focus is really on those high-growth, sustainable end markets and our ability to pivot in the event if you see one area softening and another area strengthening to make sure that we're nimble and pivoting and leveraging our demand generation activities to be able to grow where the markets are growing.
I got you, and I guess we should probably start getting into the individual business segments here, and just I wanted to start with IT&S and just the organic orders for the business were up almost 10%, I think, in the first quarter, about another 8% in the second quarter. What's kind of the state of the backlog here? What should we be thinking about as we get into the comparables for the third and fourth quarters as well?
Yeah, so first, let's talk a little bit about the backlog. And if you remember, we kind of called out the journey here starting in Q4. And I'd say that what Vic had mentioned on the Q4 earnings call was backlog was north of $2 billion at the end of the Q4 during the Q4 earnings call. Then in Q1, we talked about backlog being up approximately 10% sequentially in the Q1 earnings call. And then in the Q2 earnings call, we talked about backlog being up another 5% sequentially. And then we also threw in there that backlog was approximately 45% higher than it was as of 12/31/2021. So we kind of put a nice little trail of breadcrumbs out there for everybody to triangulate data.
So I'd say that at this point in time, backlog remains extremely high, certainly 45% higher than it was 12/31/2021, which I'd say is more of a normal course backlog number to think about. And then on the order side, great question on that. And I would also point out that in Q3 of last year, that was certainly our single biggest, highest organic orders, especially in IT&S. I think organic orders were in the high teens, mid to high teens in Q3 of the prior year. And IT&S Americas orders were low 30s, right? So you're talking about very, very tough comps for us as we move into Q3. Certainly on IT&S specifically, our single biggest quarter year over year to comp.
Okay. I guess one of the big questions I've been getting across most companies that we've been speaking with right now is just the state of that backlog in the sense of where do you feel backlog is at a comfortable level? Would you be fearful of the underlying dynamics if backlogs are starting to trend downward? What do you kind of think about that as you're going forward here?
Yeah, so in the back half of the year, so if you remember when we guided in the beginning of the year, we talked about book-to-bill of being approximately one, with a book-to-bill being north of one in the first half of the year as we have the larger, longer cycle orders that book in the first half of the year. And then below one is those larger, longer cycles that have booked in the first half of the year ship in the back half of the year. And so what we have seen in the first half of the year is a book-to-bill north of one. And again, per guide, I would expect to see exactly what we said happen.
In the second half. I got you. Okay. And then what's the latest regarding just the supply chain within that business? Is there still pockets of inefficiencies? What are you kind of seeing on that front?
Yeah, supply chains continue to get better every day, but are we back to normal, whatever normal looks like? But no, we're not back to normal yet, but they do continue to make measurable improvements. As far as the efficiency and productivity, we set out on our investor day targets, 100 basis points of margin expansion approximately every year over the course of a cycle. And we've largely delivered that. And as we think about being able to continue to deliver that, productivity and efficiency, PPV, i2V, improvements in our supply chain in general are going to have to be a part of that in order for us to achieve that.
Understood. And so as these supply chains kind of improve, will we see a bit of a near-term acceleration in that 100 basis points, or do you think that'll be fairly consistent through the remainder over the cycle itself?
Yeah, I mean, we have over the last couple of years and are trending in the current guide to deliver right at it around those 100 basis points, and I wouldn't expect to see anything outside of the normal range.
Okay. And then I guess we should probably talk about the PST business as well a little bit. Similar kind of questions regarding just the organic growth targets there and the order rates that are happening currently, as well as just the state of the backlog in that business as well.
Yeah, so we'll talk about kind of just PST first half of the year this year first and talk maybe a little bit more about the longer thematic. What I would say is that we have had one of our largest customers specifically within that life sciences end market and oxygen concentrators have some supply chain issues, and not due to us, but impacting us for sure, and so what I would say is that we saw larger frame orders placed in the first half of the year last year that did not repeat this year that are driving kind of that negative organic order growth year over year through the first half of the year. That being said, as Vicente had mentioned on the Q2 earnings call, the book and ship business continues to remain very healthy and continues to be strong.
And when you step back and think about it, and again, against IT&S, it's certainly IT&S is performing exceptionally well. But you're talking about a mid-single digit organic revenue growth with a book- to- bill of one. So when you think about book and ship still performing well, book- to- bill of one with an organic growth of mid-single digits, the fundamental business is still relatively healthy.
Excellent. And then are the 30% EBITDA margin sustainable? Even theoretically, if we're having a little bit lower volumes going forward or anything like that, what's kind of the breakpoint there or the range that we should be considering?
Yeah, I mean, 30% EBITDA multiples, and again, that's still short of our investor day targets. And so what I would say in today's environment, at the volumes that we see today, we believe that 30% adjusted EBITDA volume or margin is very achievable at these volumes. Again, we think about kind of the levers that we have to continue to pull through continued synergies on M&A, continued actions on pricing and productivity. I think that we still have a path to be able to deliver those longer-term investor day targets.
Understood, and let's talk a little bit about those longer-term targets. What are some of the macro factors that need to kind of be unlocked here in order to kind of achieve those over that time period? Are there specific end market growth dynamics that you're looking at, or how should we be focused there?
No, I mean, I think we played it more right down the middle of the fairway in terms of the assumptions that were in there, and we've had some questions on different areas of the businesses that are probably more in the earlier phases, but there's nothing that's, "Hey, this business needs to really take off and double or triple in order for us to achieve it." I mean, what we have really thought about is kind of a GDP, and again, back to our economic growth engine, plus that 1-200 basis points of organic growth, plus the inorganic growth that we've been able to show and deliver, so there's nothing special or unique that has to happen macro-wise for us to be able to deliver those targets.
Excellent. And then I was in a couple of meetings earlier today, actually, and the topic of onshoring came up pretty multiple times. And what are you seeing in terms of that from customers that are either opening up new facilities or what's kind of on the pipeline for that, and what kind of an opportunity does that represent for you guys?
Yeah, onshoring is real, and onshoring for us is real, not just in the United States, but globally. Right? So we talked about the Buffalo facility reopening in the United States, over $40 million worth of orders that we took last year that were larger, longer cycle in nature that were specifically related to reshoring activities within the United States. But we've also expanded our facility in Brazil and invested in Brazil and Latin America, and we're seeing a similar thematic there. We're seeing that same similar thematic in India where we've expanded our Naroda facility. Right? So onshoring is real for us and real for when we're building manufacturing facilities and expanding manufacturing facilities for kind of everybody around it. In India, we're seeing medicine production move out of China and move into India. And we're seeing continued focus in China for in China for China manufacturing.
I would say that globally, that thematic holds true across the board. It's very real for us, and we think that it's a tailwind that's going to continue to happen for the foreseeable future.
Excellent, and then I guess I wanted to touch a little bit on the price-cost dynamic that's happening within both businesses. Is there anything to call out there at this point? We had pretty positive commentary through the first half of the year. Just any thoughts there?
Yeah, and very positive last year as well. I would say that price-cost, we will plan and are embedded in the guide as price-cost, both dollar and rate positive. What we see at this point in time is the carryover pricing starting to fall off. Same thing with the inflation, the carryover inflation starting to fall off, and we have called about 1%-2% of new pricing starting to come in. But it's important to note that in our guide, we have no major changes in inflation to the good or to the bad embedded in there. As we go into 2024, that's absolutely something that we're going to be looking to try and stretch the teams to go achieve if we are in a deflationary market.
I guess the other thing I kind of wanted to touch on was just the recurring aftermarket business opportunity. Can you just size up for me right now just the idea of how much of this is OE versus aftermarket for you guys? And then what are some of the attachment rates that are associated? What are you seeing currently happening and how that's transitioned over the last three years or so?
Yeah, I mean, so right now, we're just north of 35% of aftermarket as a percentage of the total business, which I think is a real testament to the fact that it's been pretty consistent, and our targets are to grow that to 40%. And again, that 40% is just a stopping point along the journey. That's not the end destination for us. But what I would say is that with the outsized growth that we've seen in the original equipment, to be able to continue to hold that 35% has really shown the focus on the growth in aftermarket. And what we believe we're going to be able to continue to grow as we continue through our journey. What I would say on attachment rates, we don't necessarily disclose attachment rates.
We do talk about kind of IIoT-enabled assets that have shipped, but we don't really talk about attachment rates, but we do believe that continuing to grow, and we're very early on in that process in terms of attachment rates. That's going to be an opportunity for us to be able to grow our digitally connected assets, which will be a good enabler of aftermarket growth.
Excellent. And then I guess what's your kind of view on the CapEx cycle as a whole? I'm thinking about the idea of the amount of aged equipment that's out there that needs to be replaced. We talked a little bit about the onshoring and what kind of a tailwind that brings. Where are we in this replacement cycle as well for you guys?
Yeah, I would say that if somebody's thinking, "Hey, there's going to be this large headwind because everybody's got a shiny new compressor in their room," I would say that that's not necessarily the case. I don't think that we see in the foreseeable future some sort of headwind because there's been this outsized pace of original equipment replacement. Friendly reminder that seven to 10 years is generally the useful life. So there's always going to be opportunities for original equipment replacement over the course of any period. I would say that the continued focus on sustainability and efficiency is for sure going to be a tailwind for us as well.
We think that as energy costs continue to rise, as there's continued focus on sustainability and efficiency and being able to hit everybody's Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions reductions, the compressor room is going to be front and center at those conversations.
Okay, and then I guess one of the big things is that inorganic ability to kind of grow. Can you just walk us through just had a recent acquisition actually closed, I want to say a week or so ago?
A couple of weeks ago, yeah.
Any thoughts on early thoughts on that? And then as well as just what's in the pipeline, as well as the idea of where do you see that progressing as we move forward here?
Yeah, so Roots, great business, great brand. Again, the way that I explain Roots to people is the same way that we think about Kleenex or Band-Aids. Roots is within that industry, that type of a brand and that type of brand power. We're very pleased with it. We have targeted low 30s adjusted EBITDA by year three. We think that we have great line of sight to be able to going out and delivering that. This is an asset that we're very excited to have and think that some of the higher growth sustainable end markets like green steel and some of the technology that they have, I mean, it's certainly a core acquisition, but there's also what I would call some close adjacencies within that Roots business that we think is going to be well-positioned us to continue to focus and grow in those high-growth sustainable end markets.
Are there specific pieces of the portfolio that you're looking at a little bit more in terms of inorganic opportunity going forward, or what do you kind of see in the pipeline, I guess, as well?
Yeah, so the pipeline, I would say we've done over 35 deals in 40 months. Right? So we have done a little bit of M&A for sure. And what I would say is that what sits under LOI, we had seven assets that were deals that were transactions that were under LOI. One of those was Roots. Okay? But when you think about the remainder of the assets that are under LOI and you look at the broader funnel, what I would say is it's going to look remarkably similar to what you've seen over the course of those 35 plus transactions that we've done. Technology assets, core assets, close adjacencies, various size, scope scale similar to what you've seen before.
Again, I think that M&A is going to be a big part of our investment thesis, and we're going to continue to have that be the primary use of cash. And we think that the funnel for the foreseeable future, we're going to be able to continue to do what we've been doing.
I gotcha. Are there geographic areas of focus or anything like that, or how should we be thinking just from a global standpoint?
No, I mean, I think you're going to look at the right deals, and you're going to make the right deals as they come available. You're going to walk away from the bad deals because they don't make sense. What I would say is that we're going to continue to focus on those high-growth sustainable end markets. And again, you've seen probably a little bit firmer on PST a couple of years ago, a little bit more on IT&S. Again, that's really just more about the deals that are coming in front of us and the right deals that are coming in front of us that we're willing to sign on. So I would say that PST will certainly continue to be a focus for us for inorganic growth as well.
But it's really more on the high-growth sustainable end markets, core acquisitions, close adjacencies, or technology assets that we think fit nicely into the portfolio that's going to help us from that digital enablement.
Okay. If there's questions from the audience, I'm happy to open that up. All right. We can continue then, and so I guess let's talk a little bit more just about the IT&S business. We've talked a little bit about and trying to get to the end markets themselves and what you're kind of seeing in those kinds of dynamics just in the near term, especially. I feel like there's a lot of angst regarding where order trends are. Are things decelerating? There's not a lot of commercial consumer kind of focus for you guys at the end of the day, but what are you just seeing in the broader dynamics of the market itself?
Yeah, I mean, I think the nice part about us is that we are very broad-based in terms of the markets and end markets that we play in. And again, we continue to focus on those higher growth sustainable end markets and make sure that if end market A is down, end market B is growing. We also have two people on our team that are from Frost & Sullivan that came over, and they do a lot of market segmentation. And so we're always trying to focus on you want to be where the puck is and where the puck is going. And so we're really focused on that next area. And Vicente had mentioned things like battery recycling.
Not a big end market today, but when you think about all the battery production and everything that's happening now, down the line, you're going to need to make sure that you're understanding what that technology is, what those uses are, and make sure that we have our foot in the door early on and not being the early adopter to that. And so I think all day, every day, that's really what we're focused on is trying to make sure that we're understanding what those end markets are, being nimble, pivoting, leveraging our economic growth engine to drive that demand. So again, while we may have commentary about end markets specifically today, which again, we don't guide on and don't talk to, that doesn't necessarily mean that what is good and/or bad today is going to be good and/or bad tomorrow.
We just want to make sure that our resources and that our demand generation activities are really focused in those right areas that are growing.
Excellent. One more time if there's anything in the background. No? Then actually, we may end up. I'll ask you this. Are there areas that investors are asking you questions about that we haven't really touched on here that you want to highlight? Or is there a point that we should really be focused on?
Yeah, I mean, I think so. I'll touch on a couple of things. The one question I get a lot is, "Okay, China, you talked about end markets." And markets, we'll go into that a little bit. We seem to be performing maybe a bit better in China than some others are. And what I would say there is a couple of things. Again, back to that demand generation, back to the end market focus. What we tried to do on the last earnings call, I think it was slide five, we talked a lot about kind of the merger of Ingersoll Rand and Gardner Denver, the Ingersoll Rand footprint, the commercial footprint, and the manufacturing footprint, the Gardner Denver portfolio of products that wasn't as well known in Asia-Pacific. And so you have a nice blend of kind of the how and the what.
That has complemented each other nicely. You've seen blower and vacuum growth in Asia of 17% CAGR over the past since the deal. We also talk about M&A being a big thesis and, well, okay, you get the M&A, you integrate it, you have the cost synergies, you've got PPV, i2V, you've got pricing, but what else do you do with it? We talked a lot about on the other side of the page there, being able to do product tear downs and really bring a new product to market in less than a year, driving that innovation, driving that growth, the right product for the right market, leveraging existing technology and recently acquired M&A. So I think for us, when we think about M&A, again, when we do the business case, we only underwrite the deal on controllable costs, right?
Cost synergies, pricing, PPV, i2V. That's not to say that we don't see opportunities from a revenue standpoint. That's not that we don't see opportunities from a technology standpoint, being able to leverage it across a breadth of our products. But that's not how we underwrite the deal. That is how we go try and do more. So I think that those two examples were kind of an effort to really explain, "Okay, here's some of the good things that we have going on." And again, it's really about understanding the market segmentation and making sure that we're nimble from a demand generation standpoint. So I mean, I think that that's important. I think the other thing that we didn't necessarily cover in this Q&A is kind of the power of employee ownership, right?
When you think about all the curveballs that have been thrown at Ingersoll Rand since day one, right? The merger happened in February prior to COVID, and there was a lot of opportunities there for things to not go well. But what I would say is that given IRX, given the power of employee ownership, what you have seen is that everybody is all hands on deck, nimble in ability to course correct and make the requisite amount of changes and really turn it into an opportunity for growth. And so I think working in this company now that's an employee that has employee owners, it would be weird for me leaving this company and going to a company that doesn't have that employee ownership.
I know that that's the exception and not the rule, but the way that we think and the way that we operate in that employee ownership mindset and thinking and acting like an owner, I think is just such a critical intangible as far as what makes Ingersoll Rand such a great company, both performance and a great company to work for. That also helps on attracting and retaining talent, attracting and retaining talent, so.
Excellent. I think with that, we actually will call it a time and appreciate you guys for this session. Thank you so much, Matt.
Thank you for having me.