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Evercore Industrials Conference

Mar 8, 2023

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Very happy to have as our next presenter, all the way from North Carolina. Ingersoll Rand. A lot of you know Vik Kini, Ingersoll's CFO. Before that, got to know you as well from Investor Relations.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Now Investor Relations in the good hand of Matt Fort. Really appreciate you guys taking the time, so.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. No, thanks for having us.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

It's great to be here. Happy to be here.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Really just sort of wanted to dive in on the model a little bit, right?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Sure.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

When you think of the sort of algorithm for the company.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The idea of you know, single, mid-single digit organic. Obviously, the M&A machine is, you know, been doing a good job the last few years. Your pipeline still seems pretty, you know, pretty active, leaves us to say, you've been able to put up that low double-digit EPS growth that you've been talking about, right?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The margin improvement every year, and I know we're not rigid 100 basis points every year, but that's sort of the idea.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yep.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The push into more aftermarket and recurring revenues, I think, again, okay, it's like 35% last year. Can you describe to us the pace that you're seeing? Because some of the connectivity, some of the IoT devices going out. You would think maybe that could accelerate that percentage. Can you think through what you're expecting, say, this year on a, on a parts recurring revenue growth relative to underlying equipment?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, sure. David, I think, you know, just to start with the what we'll call kind of that economic growth engine we outlined at the Investor Day back in 2021. You're spot on. You know, mid-single digit organic, mid-single digit inorganic, on average about 100 basis points of margin expansion. kind of all being driven by kind of our IRX process, which I'm sure we'll speak about here. You know, which led itself to, you know, nice double-digit earnings growth and then strong cash flow conversion. You know, now as we've moved through, you know, we just completed our three-year anniversary as a new company here, I guess earlier this week, probably. You know, we're pretty pleased with, you know, as a new Ingersoll Rand, we've known nothing but, you know, COVID and supply chain disruption, inflation.

It's, you know, been the, you know, atypical kind of three years, but that's, you know, that's how we've been operating. Despite that, I think the teams have done a fantastic job executing through that. In the context of the margin expansion, you're completely right. You know, we are expecting to drive about 100 basis points on average of total company EBITDA margin expansion. You've actually seen above that the last two years. We, despite hyperinflationary markets and all that, you've actually seen us actually out execute and outperform. In the context of the aftermarket, you're spot on.

You know, we definitely believe that the aftermarket is a core contributor, not just to that sustained organic growth, and we'll come back to the components, but ultimately speaking, aftermarket on average is roughly speaking at least 500 basis points better on margins than the original equipment. You have components of that aftermarket equation. We've talked pretty explicitly about our CARE contracts, which are these kind of longer term in duration, kind of risk transfer agreements, multi-year in nature, really kind of got their core in the compressor side. That's kind of annuity flow stream of revenue and they make, you know, we say kinda like software-esque type gross margins, which that's a huge push. To answer your question, yeah, around 35%, mid to high 30s%. If you kinda decompose that though, you know, ITS side better than that.

The PST business doesn't have, I'd say, the classical aftermarket as much as the ITS business. It, you know, it's a, it's a lower percentage, but you will see that the PST business definitely has more of a recurring revenue base in the context of like for like type pump replacement. It has a comparable look and feel, just not classical aftermarket. As we think about where the aftermarket equation could get to, first and foremost, without question, there's no reason why we don't see this getting into the mid-40s approaching 50% as we get to, you know, over the horizon. The way the business is situated, the opportunity set, whether it be the core aftermarket parts, you know, lubricants, the service component, the CARE contracts, and now connecting that with IoT.

You know, the IoT piece for us, what we aren't saying is that IoT necessarily today, we don't call it out as like an individual revenue stream or anything like that because we think of it more as an enabler to deliver the aftermarket. What you've seen, and I'll kind of tie it even back now to things like the inorganic side. You've seen us, we've done approximately 30 bolt-on acquisitions since the merger. In the last three years, approximately 30. You've seen us focus not only on like the core compression technology, you've seen us focus on that ecosystem. Take one click remove from the compressor. What's around the compressor?

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Like Seepex with the digital platform.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct. Even on the compressor side, you have things like the dryer, the SPX FLOW transaction. You have gas generation like Holtec. You have condensate management, which is York. Now not just the compressor, but what's downstream from that. Now if you go one click on the ecosystem, how do you now connect it to actually drive, you know, better energy efficiency and better connectivity across that? That has been part of now our kind of M&A narrative. It actually fits nicely with the aftermarket theme that you mentioned.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Would it be fair to say if your organic sales growth guide is only 4%, the parts, the aftermarket should be growing?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We definitely target for the aftermarket.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

It makes the margin story a lot easier for people.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct. We definitely are driving for what I would say outpacing of aftermarket growth comparatively over that duration. Now, it's probably fair to say in the context of probably the last year or two, where you've seen, you know, that outsized growth that, you know, a lot of other companies have seen. Original equipment growth has been extremely healthy. Despite that, I'll say you've actually seen us maintain our aftermarkets of percentile sales and, you know, move it in the right direction despite that original equipment growth. The other benefit of that is now you have a larger install base to go serve through the aftermarket for the next. Remember, a compressor lasts on average eight to 10 years as an example.

We actually view this as kind of a win-win and pretty pleased with how we've been able to execute in an environment where original equipment clearly has been a huge driver as w ell.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Speaking of Original equipment. We'll get into the backlog in a second. First, the organic 4%, right? You also had another 4% you spoke of that, you know, acquisitions that aren't done, they're in the pipeline. You know, letter of intention. Can you just give us a little bit of an update on how that's proceeding...

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

relative to recent history? It seems like--

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

what you discussed in the LOIs turn into acquisitions.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

To level-set on the guide, spot on. We guided to 3%-5% organic growth, let's take the midpoint of 4%. In addition to that, we actually have included in guidance another $270 million of revenue from completed acquisitions. Not all, but the biggest contributor there, for example, is the SPX Flow transaction that just closed at the beginning of the year.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

In addition to that, and not in guidance, to your point, David, is the, let's call it the deals that are under LOI. Our philosophy, we include all closed deals in guidance at that applicable time. Anything under LOI is not included in guidance. You are correct. We have 11 transactions under LOI that we reported at our earnings a few weeks ago. Just to level-set kind of in terms of the funnel and the composition and kinda how to think about that, funnel continues to mean extremely healthy. As we reported earnings a few weeks ago, the funnel is still five times larger than what it was at the time of the RMT. It's predominantly, if not almost exclusively, what we call the bolt-on type acquisitions.

Think of nice niche technologies that continue to fill in that ecosystem on the ITS and PST side, very similar to what you've seen us do historically. In terms of the actual just kinda math in terms of the LOIs themselves, I think at the last quarter, so third quarter earnings, we talked about having eight LOIs. What you saw us close two deals, SPX Flow and Paragon Tank Truck, which is that nice. Lower business.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

You know, eight came down to six, so we've added five more. It speaks to the velocity and how that kind of funnel is continuing to translate to LOIs, and you are correct. The vast preponderance, not 100%, but the vast majority of LOIs typically translate to a closed deal. It takes finding something in diligence or something of that nature for us to kind of walk away at that point.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

There's nothing in this subset of 11 that would make us feel the conversion rate should be any lower than we've seen.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

No, I would characterize it as we would expect it to be very comparable to what you've seen. Just to put a finer point on it, the 11 under LOI, think of them as the smaller bolt-on, the Paragon type acquisitions, in size, not necessarily Seepex or SPX FLOW size.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Sure. That's fair. The backlog, $2 billion.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Total company revs aren't even quite $6.5 billion this year. That's a big backlog.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Can you help us digest the comment made about your marketing qualified leads?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Giving you a sense of knowing how well you can ship, and we'll talk supply chains. That doesn't seem like you think the backlog's going down from here.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Can you give us a first bogey? We don't have that much history. I mean, obviously.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Gardner Denver is obviously covering Ingersoll as well, but we don't have a real series to go. Backlog is usually not, you know, 30% plus of...

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

next year's sales. It's 15 or 20. How would you characterize historical versus today's 30% plus of backlog to sell?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. You're, you're spot on. Typically speaking, you gotta always recognize that in backlog, there's probably in our IT business, 20-ish% of our revenue base there is the longer cycle projects, which inherently sit in backlog for anywhere from six to 18 months. That's just always part of the equation. That being said, typical backlog walking into any year or quarter, you probably have visibility 60 plus days, roughly speaking.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

17% . Six to 50.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

That's exactly right. Now we have 1.5x plus, the, you know, typical size of backlog compared to where you'd say any semblance of history or what normal backlog would be coming into a year. Without question, we have more visibility. I would say other than some of those longer cycle projects, that visibility may be, you know, where you typically walk into your years visibility for a portion of Q1, you've got visibility more maybe into Q2. Do you necessarily have visibility in the back half of the year yet? I wouldn't go that far yet. You're completely right in the context of the backlog itself has definitely been much more elevated.

To the MQL conversation and kind of the whole orders dynamic, the MQLs or the marketing qualified leads, this is really a kind of an output and a construct of our demand generation engine. You know, this is something that we have put in place and really built up since really the 2015 timeframe. Just to put it in perspective, today we have what we'll call a demand gen center of excellence. Think of 150 people around the globe who do nothing but work on generating marketing qualified leads in a digital manner, doing targeted campaigns. These are individuals who've come from, you know, the backgrounds of the, you know, the Googles and Yahoos of know this is what they've done.

They are literally creating MQLs that then they are turning over to the sales team to then execute on and actually translate into an order thereafter. It's a very different way in, I know, a classical industrial business of instigating or demand, generating demand. Now we've been doing this long enough that we have, you know, we effectively, we look at it. You can look at it daily, we can look at it every single week. You can see every region, every product line. You can slice and dice it however you like. You can see trends, essentially. What that gives us visibility to, and David, to your point, in terms of the conviction around the fact that things are still trending, you know, positively right now, is that we've seen a good correlation of MQLs.

One, we get about 5,000 marketing qualified leads per week.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We've got to a point where MQLs, you know, like you would expect, they go in the funnel, but they can translate to orders in about a six to eight-week timeframe. That's kind of that kind of conversion rate or that conversion time.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Here's the reason I bring it up, and I get it, start of the year.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yep.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Hey, we know near term, let's be cautious on the back half. If the backlog is this big, meaning it's, you know, four or five months of visibility, not traditional two, and we think the backlog is not gonna go down much given the MQLs, obviously that's not suggesting third quarter begins this precipitous decline where we have all-in growth going from, you know, over 10% in the first half. Down to five when the backlog is still running at near.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, and--

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Not saying it has to be $2 billion--

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

No.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Not getting drawn down dramatically.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, I think.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Is it just a prudence idea in the second half?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

That's exactly right. I mean, I think one thing, you know, the comp set does get much more challenging in the back half of the year. Comps are real.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

The other piece here is, yeah, I consider it prudency into the back half. You know, we still do not necessarily have visibility. To your point, things continuing to trend well. When we did our earnings, we even said the first five weeks of the year-to-date orders were still trending or were still organically up, and that was even with the fact that Chinese New Year was a headwind in terms of timing this year versus last year at the time we did earnings. Despite that headwind, just straight dollar spend, we were still organically up. You are correct. Things still trending positively. The market dynamics haven't really dramatically changed in any note.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah, the MQLs haven't...

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

The MQLs have been remarkably stable.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

the last couple weeks.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

You know, I think that speaks to the efforts of the team in terms of the demand generation efforts. Yeah, I think the second half guide, consider it prudency and kind of like 2022, you know, hope that that's something we can outperform as we get, you know, into the back half of the year.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Serving the demand and getting the orders is different, right? The supply chain in my simple framework, you know, like if before the pandemic, let's just index the supply chain on a scale of one to 10 as 10.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The worst moment of the supply chain, let's call it a two.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

We'll save one for like the Great Flood or something. A two. Where is it today? If it was 10 normal, two-

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Where are we?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Is it?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Maybe somewhere in between, like in the middle there. Yeah, I mean, I would say.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Something like that.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

I mean, are things back to normal yet? No. You know, even our guidance kind of implied, hey, listen, we're not implying, you know, two things. We're not implying some dramatic supply chain normalization or dramatic change in the context of the supply chain. We're also not implying or including anything in the context of deflation as well. To the degree things continue to loosen up, sure, that can be opportunity to hopefully outperform. Yeah, there are still constraints. There are still, you know, do you get the full allocation of XYZ component that you want? Probably not. You're still working through that. Lead times are probably still a little bit exacerbated compared to whatever normal would be. Again, though, I think our teams have done.

You know, we do have a model that, you know, hopefully insulates us from that a touch in the context of being in region for the region. It's a distinct component of our model, one that actually we've continued to invest in over the course of the last three years and will continue to, such that you don't find yourself overly reliant on one region to supply another. The vast majority of our revenue base in the Americas, Europe, and Asia is served from facilities within those respective regions.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

I see you're now doing that with India as well, yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct. Exactly. Yeah, in fact, in the context of the last 12 months, we have announced distinct investments. We talked about our Buffalo manufacturing facility in the U.S. to supply centrifugal compressors in domestic U.S. We've built capacity in Brazil for the Brazilian market, and we just announced the India plant expansion largely for India purposes. Absolutely, you're actually seeing it in pockets around the globe.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The way you described the 4% organic was only 30% volume.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

That is correct.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Call it 1.2% to be exact. That 1.2% volume growth, I mean, just give me a sense of what's in the second half. Like, is it volume?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

5%, 6% in the, in the first half, and just for now we're just assuming...

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

...the rest of the back half of the year is negative?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

Matthew Fort
VP of Investor Relations, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, I mean...

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

What's the math?

Matthew Fort
VP of Investor Relations, Ingersoll Rand

Flattish, yeah, flattish in the back half would be the way to think about it. Again, as Vik had mentioned earlier, we see probably the single biggest opportunity for upside as we look out to the future is organic revenue growth in the back half.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Using an particular, not to nickel and dime in the math, but if it's 1.2% for the year and the back half is flat, that means the first half is only 2%.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Think of it this way.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

That's not accurate.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

You know, to put a maybe finer point on it, the second half of the year, the implied guide is flattish total organic, which means probably slightly negative on the volume, slightly positive on the price. To Matthew's point, I think without question the, probably the biggest piece of opportunity ahead, you know, assuming markets continue to comply and things of that nature, is probably the organic volume specifically in the second half of the year.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Given the size of ITS as a % of the whole company, you had alluded to the first quarter ITS orders were feeling pretty good, I assume. Is that a comment we can extrapolate to what we've been seeing so far?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. I'd say, I mean, we did earnings like two and a half, three weeks ago. You know, I'd say the markets continue to trend generally in line with how you would expect. You know, it's also probably worth noting that typical seasonality in the ITS business is that, you know, well, one, you're continuing to see good organic momentum. It's also typical to see book-to-bill above one in the first half, below one in the second half. The biggest contributor to that is the longer cycle projects, which is 20-ish% of the revenue base of ITS. You typically book those in the first half, and the vast majority, not all, but the vast majority of those longer cycle projects tend to ship not just in the second half, but they always usually concentrate in the fourth quarter.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah, it's just if the book-to-bill's, I won't say well above one, but if it's one, one, one, two for ITS in the first quarter, it's just another element of unless somebody cancels the order, they're gonna ship in the second half of the year.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Typically speaking. To your point, David, have we seen any, you know, we've gotten the question a lot, so have you seen any cancellations? No. Stocking of inventory on the compressor side typically isn't what we see kind of in our distributor base and the figured nature of compressors. Yeah, to your point, it's a lot of just continued conversion of the backlog and continuing to operate well in this environment.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

China, 53 PMI, a lot of people positive surprise.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The government 5% forecast. Maybe a little less than some people would have liked to have seen, but we can debate what a guidance means.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

beatable, not beatable. The 53 at least is supposed to be... That was real. That was actual.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Did you feel 53?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

In China.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

It's a great question. I would say our China business, frankly, if you go to fourth quarter, just take a step backwards here, fourth quarter, COVID, a lot of, you know, concerns of what's going on, our China business operated you know, really well. You know, we saw in the compressor side of the business, which is the biggest piece of.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

double-digit or orders growth in Asia-Pac. China is the single biggest component there. You actually have executed and operated well in fourth quarter on the orders momentum, even through the first part of the year, even up until recently here. Again, you wouldn't get to positive organic momentum in ITS, you know, February, the first week year to date, without China continuing to execute and operate well. That team has done a fantastic job independent of the market variables, continuing to execute and operate. I think they probably are one of our, probably our hallmark kind of examples of a lot of the control what you control, a lot of the self-help from a commercial perspective. Whether that means, you know, the Ingersoll brand, Ingersoll Rand brand name in China is, in our opinion, the name of names.

Now being able to leverage that and being able to penetrate with, for example, Gardner Denver technology that maybe hadn't gotten as much of a foothold in China, now leveraging the IR name. For example, blow or vacuum, right? Now using the IR channel to market there and taking something that has a very low base and continuing to build up on that. Relaunching the Gardner Denver brand of compression technology there, leveraging the IR presence to push that. Just frankly using demand gen to go target those higher growth targeted verticals in the market that are frankly just seeing better growth than whatever the average is. To answer your question is, have we seen a dramatic change today versus, make it up, two months ago, three months ago?

Not dramatic, and I'd say a lot of that is just because we've actually seen good consistent growth.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

At the top most companies were down.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. We've seen.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Double digit. You've been doing double-digit growth.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Pretty good there through the entirety.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Still the feedback hasn't been like, "Hey, a little extra, a little extra coming from the way the macro read would be or no?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

I think the team is encouraged that that's a continued sign for growth as we look forward.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

I guess the Seepex deal.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

I mean, they must have had a pretty bloated SG&A, I guess. Still. That the way you've really driven those margins in five or six quarters, it's a different starting point. Seepex came in at mid-teens.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Correct.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The, you know, the SPX business was already coming in, I think, at mid-20s%, right?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

That's correct.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

When I think about the margin potential at SPX, just to sort of level set us, because that's a sizable deal there.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

It's enough revenue to kind of move the needle a bit.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Sure.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The margin potential there, should we think of that as a plug and play with synergy on driving top line? No, there's 500 type basis points of margin improvement, or is that too much to ask?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

No, I mean, I think it's a little bit across all those categories. I mean, the SPX FLOW business, fantastic business. It's dryer technology. Dryers are effectively attached to the compressor. We've, you know, we've literally been a customer of SPX FLOW's on the Gardner side historically. It's piece and parcel to what we're selling and what we're doing. To your point, yes, it's coming in, let's just call it for all practical purposes, close to fleet average margins on the ITS side. I think again, as you think about inherently, you know, what we kind of put in the model is what we consider to be controllable type synergy.

Whether that be things around the pricing side of the equation, cost side of the equation, ultimately what we do believe that there are meaningful revenue synergies. We don't underwrite the deal on that's absolutely what we drive to. Should we actually said it when we announced the deal, we expect it to be accretive to ITS in relatively short order, that would imply, you know, multiple 100 basis points of potential opportunity without question.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Just to give us a little heads up, the ones in LOI status.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Roughly company average, below average?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, I would say they're by and large in line, you know, in, you know, 20% plus type EBITDA margins.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

There's no Seepex coming in that.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

There's.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

It's a good deal now, but it really dragged the PSP and margins down.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

First of all, yeah, first of all, there's nothing in that 11 LOIs that's of the Seepex or SPX Flow size.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Let alone of a, what I would call a margin profile that's comparable to Seepex. No, nothing you would expect that's like Seepex . Which for the record, Seepex , 40% plus gross margin. Fantastic business. To your point, yes, just had a heavy cost structure and, you know, clearly something we've been working on here over the course of the last five quarters. Put it in perspective, it's gotten to about approximately 25% EBITDA margin, so about a 1,000 basis point improvement in, call it five quarters. It is still slightly dilutive to PST segment margin. Without question, there's still plenty of room to go, but.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

pretty pleased with the progress we've made in a relatively short period of time.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah, one thing, I mean, nobody can deny Vicente and everybody here has built a pretty constructive culture at Ingersoll. You know, no two ways about it. Employees acting like owners because they are owners, right?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Exactly.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

You gave them a good chunk of stock when the, when the merger happened. but still the ability to get labor-

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

especially in this country is a struggle.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

I thought it's interesting even with that culture, and I know a lot of pandemic issues, people rethought their lives and what they wanted to do, but that you still had, you know, voluntary turnover of 10% plus of headcount. It just shows you like it's tough to keep people, let alone find people to add. This inorganic opportunity also has that benefit as well, that it's just easier to grow to on from the human capital side. Can you give us a sense, if you could, as a CFO as well, I mean, kind of what the wage increases are looking like, the trending of that?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Also just the way you've really done a lot of things that you would think it you'd have one of the lower turnovers.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

It's not like every company provides that data, so I'm not saying your 10%, 13 % higher than average because we don't know everybody's average. It was still interesting to even see it that high with the culture that you, that you have.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, I think the way I would characterize it is, I mean, if we had our, you know, like anyone else, requisite level of voluntary turnover, sure. Has it been lower than any degree of what we'll call industry benchmark that we manage and look to and from third parties? We'd also say that's a fair statement. David, to your point, in terms of one of the biggest contributing factors, I do absolutely believe is the culture and this ownership mentality. As you said, we've done two all-employee equity grants, one at the time of the Gardner Denver IPO, and then one in, roughly speaking, August 2020 as part of the merger.

We also have announced what we call our kind of Ownership Works grant, whereby any new employee to the company, whether it's just hired in the company or via an acquisition, one year after their start date, we will issue them equity as well. This concept of continuing to ensure that all of our employees are owners and get to, you know, participate in that ownership of the company continues. I absolutely believe that is a very big differentiator. I mean, you've seen it so many times over in the context of executing through the last two years, executing through supply chain environments, executing through lockdown environments in China. People reference and really, "I'm an owner of the company, this is my responsibility to serve the customer." You hear it, you see it's pervasive.

In the context of the second part of your question of what are we seeing in the market right now, yeah, there absolutely is what I would call labor inflation. It's part of the narrative, and it's part of our guidance. You know, the best way I could probably describe it is in the U.S., as an example, if historically, you know, merit increase or labor inflation was on average around 3%, it's now probably closer to 4%, just to use kind of rough numbers.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

It's that modest a difference?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

You know, I mean, it's got puts and takes across, you know, differing roles and differing regions. I wouldn't say it's dramatically different in terms of that percentage increase, which just to be clear, that's still a 30%, you know.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

difference, you know, from prior years to current years. That is embedded in our guidance, and it's worth noting that we are using productivity as a means to offset that. In the guidance you saw, that is one of the headwinds in terms of labor inflation. We are using productivity to offset it. I do think to your point, you know, there's a, you know, there's a, there's a nuance or a very different model at Ingersoll Rand in the context of employee ownership that, you know, without question, I think has, you know, a little bit more of a retention, co-component to it that we very much see as differentiating ourselves in a tight labor environment.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

If Chair Powell was here and you were giving him advice on what you're seeing on the wage front, are wage increases peaking? Would you argue-- This is our industry we look at, maybe not every industry. We know tech, we've seen the layoffs and so forth. Would you say your wage increases are peaking right now? Are you seeing anything with a looser labor force out there that this is sort of peak wage increase?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

You know, I think I'm not sure I'd say it's peak. I mean, it's definitely a high watermark for the company, without question here. I will also say that there are components within the business and differing parts of more specialized, you know, labor and things of that nature where I will without question say the percentage increase has been a little bit bigger than what we've referenced here.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

I think without question, it's something we're gonna continue to monitor, we're gonna continue to see. You know, we're not adverse if we have to, you know, we've done certain things out of cycle as needed for targeted components of the organization, even in 2022. You know, that's just been part of how we operate and, you know, we've been able to, I'd say, adapt pretty well. Despite that, keep our voluntary turnover at relatively lower rates than we see on the total industry. At this point, you still haven't seen that being an impediment to being able to deliver results.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We're pretty happy with how we've managed in what has been a pretty tough environment.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Last thing from me, we've seen some materials like hot rolled steel, for example.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

tick back up.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Others steady. Copper had the lift, and it's come off a little bit, but still a bit high. The way you're going to market with price.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Has the year started a little bit where, "Hey, we thought we might only do January. We might go midyear," but we have that flexibility? Has it been a little bit of that we've raised price a lot, a lot of intra-year price increases. We're sort of reticent to go back to the market right now. We don't wanna test the elasticity necessarily? No, you could roll out another?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. It's more the latter. In fact, we said as part of our guidance, if we go back to that 4% organic.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We said 70% price, 30% volume, just due to the carryover nature of the actions we took in 2022. We said the vast majority of that 70% price was due to carryover.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We also did say that we do intend to take what we consider to be, you know, normal course pricing actions, maybe 1%-2% in the context of 2023.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Is that enough to keep price cost margin?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We do believe so. We've actually managed to be price cost dollar positive every quarter to the duration, and we've been margin positive for several quarters in a row here. We do believe that that is the right kind of equation for us as we sit here right now and in the environment we see. One thing to note, David, is that it doesn't, you know, every region, every product line will be a little bit different in terms of what they do in the market. It's not that every business is taking a, I'm making this up, you know, a March first price. No. It's every business and region will do what makes sense in their respective markets and areas.

We do think that the environment is still there to continue to do the, what we'll call the normal course. We've been able to take, I'd say a 1%-2% price increase, even if you look back at the history of the company, year in, year out, that's just been part of the model and given where we play in the market. We don't think things are gonna be dramatically different this year. If for whatever reason things change dramatically.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Yeah.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

We showed in the context of last year the ability to take pricing actions, we typically are taking them, you know, we're not waiting for to see what competition we're doing, the actions that we think are appropriate for the company.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

We're about out of time. Anybody have a question? I've one last one I'm asking. I'm not saying you're gonna opine upon every competitor with real full insight. Just curious. On the compressor side, right, you think Atlas Copco.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

The other products, maybe a little more Dover, Flowserve. Just curious, the competitive landscape right now.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Mm-hmm.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

You don't have to be nice, no one's watching. Just the idea, the dynamic of, you know, oh, the dollar's a bit strong. Maybe Atlas Copco could be a little friskier on not having to raise prices much, or you name it. Just curious any color you could give us competitively.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Anything unique going on that we should be at least thoughtful about from a competitive dynamic?

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah, no, I think the beauty of where we operate, whether it be ITS or PST, is that we've got great competitors, a lot of whom are, you know, public peers of note. You know, I would say it's a very disciplined market. You know, if you think about the compressor side, you know, you got Atlas Copco and ourselves as the number one and number two players. I think it's a very disciplined environment in that respect. Creates, you know, a healthy demand environment out there. It gives us both good benchmarks to use in terms of how we're individually operating in the respective regions.

You know, anything I would point to of, you know, things, you know, dramatically changing the landscape or anything, no, I'd say it's been a relatively, what I'll call a disciplined environment out there in terms of where we've been playing, which is what we like to see.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

All right. Well, thank you very much for coming.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Yeah. Thank you, David.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

Appreciate your time.

Vik Kini
CFO, Ingersoll Rand

Appreciate it.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director, Evercore ISI

All right. Thank you.

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