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Citi’s 30th Annual Global Property CEO Conference 2025

Mar 3, 2025

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Citi's 2025 Global Property CEO Conference. I'm Eric Wolfe with Citi Research, and we are pleased to have with us Scott Schaeffer of IRT. This session is for Citi clients only, and disclosures have been made available at the corporate access desk. To ask a question, you can raise your hand or go to liveqa.com and enter code GPC25 to submit questions. Scott, I'll turn it over to you to introduce your team, tell people the top three reasons to buy your stock, and then we'll go into Q&A.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Thanks, Eric. Again, I'm Scott Schaeffer, Chairman and CEO of Independence Realty Trust, and here to my right is James Sebra, our President and CFO, and here on my left is Jason Lynch, who runs our acquisitions group. So I actually have four reasons. So clearly, the most important is the makeup of our portfolio. We are at the beginning of a favorable multi-year cycle. Our markets continue to have population and job growth that outpace the coastal markets and the country as a whole. And now you combine that with a precipitous decline in new deliveries. And clearly, after coming through a number of difficult years with new deliveries, we are at the end of that, which positions us very well for sustained rent growth and, presumably, higher multiples going forward.

We still have, from our equity raise last year, $156 million of equity that we will be able to deploy here in the first half of 2025, and we have been deploying that equity accretively and expect to continue. So you'll see some good accretive growth going forward. We recently received a BBB flat rating from both S&P and Fitch. That's new to us, so while it gives us a better cost of capital, it also improves and increases our deleveraging efforts. We have an experienced management team with over 170 years of real estate experience that has managed through all types of markets and cycles, and accordingly, we have a track record that is the best. From all the public company peers, we have the number one both five- and 10-year total shareholder returns. So those are my reasons, Eric. Thank you.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Sounds good. So we'll talk about a lot of those in a moment. I did want to start maybe with the accretive growth that you mentioned because it does seem like the market is now given a little bit of a green light in terms of your stock price to be able to grow accretively. I know you're still sitting on ATM proceeds. I think you said $150 million, but you have lined up some acquisitions. So I just wanted to understand sort of how you look at accretive growth as we think about the next couple of years. If you continue to have a good equity cost of capital, how you'll use that to grow the portfolio.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

We did an equity offering in September of last year on a forward basis, which gave us 12 months to put the capital to use. Since then, we've bought three communities. They have been at 5.6, 5.7, and 5.8 cap rates, all new construction in markets where we have wanted to grow. Those acquisitions are accretive relative to our cost of capital from day one. Since they're new construction and they're largely through the lease-up, so we're taking a very small amount of lease-up risk. I think they're in the high 80s% or 90s% when we closed, occupancy. It also gives us that first-year turn of leases growth because we'll have the burn-off of the concessions. Plus, typically when you have a new construction, you're leaving a little bit of money on the table as a landlord when you're leasing up.

So when those leases turn, for us now in the second and third years, we expect there to be some outsized growth.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. But I guess what is the decision framework in terms of, let's say you find a good home for the current equity proceeds that you have, the stock's trading well? Is there a certain minimal level of accretion that you're shooting for? Is there a certain increase in growth that you're looking for? Just trying to understand the decision that you make around issuing capital versus deploying that capital.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

For us, and I didn't mention it in my reasons to invest, but the best use of capital for us is our value-add program that delivers a high teens, unlevered return on invested dollar. But on acquisitions, we're just looking for it to be somewhat accretive on day one. It doesn't have to be 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% because we know that over time, especially now that we're at, as I've mentioned, the beginning of what will be a very good cycle for rent growth, we know that that level of.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Point in time. So if you grow your portfolio by 10% next year, how much would G&A have to go up as a result of that?

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah, great question. I think generally speaking, when we think about our both property management expense line and our G&A line, we run pretty lean and pretty efficient as it stands today, and we're pretty happy with kind of that. As you look at the G&A and PME, outside of maybe some incremental regional managers or some incremental staff, it's very scalable such that if we were to increase the portfolio, like you suggest, up to 10%, there would not be a very big increase at all to the G&A or PME lines.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

I want to add something to that, if I may. So we look at, and this is relative to the G&A as well as just the on-site team, we look at and we monitor the total number of employees that we have per unit, so not just the number of people at the properties, and you'll hear many of our competitors talk about how they've streamlined their operations and they've reduced their staff and they do self-guided tours, but when you look at each of our multifamily peers or through the light of total number of employees or total number of units per employee, we are the third lowest of all the peers. It's just, who's it, UDR and AvalonBay are less than us.

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

They're the highest.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

They're the highest.

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

They're the third highest.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Sorry, number of units per employee.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Right. We have the lowest number of employees per unit.

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. So what Scott's saying is we're already pretty efficient. And even though we don't have, obviously, the self-guided tours or what others do, because fundamentally at the core, for us, it's not just about increasing NOI growth. It is. But it's also about doing it from a standpoint of smart and having all of that additional savings fall all the way through to the bottom line. So we don't want to move people off-site just into a corporate location and still have roughly the same payroll. We want to make improvements all the way through the chain of value chain to ensure that every dollar of revenue that we generate, as much of it as possible, falls to the bottom line.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. That's helpful. And then you mentioned that the best dollar spent is on the value-add projects. And there's a slide in your presentation that kind of shows the pipeline of projects that you could work through over time. The only thing I guess I'm still always struggling to understand is that increase that you're talking about is sort of relative to an unrenovated comp, right? It's not necessarily an increase that you're getting over the existing rate. It's an increase relative to what you think you would get or what you are getting for the unrenovated units. And so some of that spend does seem a little bit defensive to me in terms of trying to preserve your overall rate. I guess at what point, first, completely feel free to completely disagree with that.

But second part is, at what point does it become a little bit more opportunistic in the sense that it really helps grow your rents going forward, not versus an unrenovated comp just grows your rents in absolute terms?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

So what was the second part of that question?

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

Just at what point do you think maybe it's the dynamic of the industry due to supply? At what point does it just grow your rent in absolute terms, not necessarily versus an unrenovated comp, but just your previous rent was 100 and now it's 115?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

So the whole theory of comparing the value-add, the rent that we're getting on a value-add unit versus an unrenovated comp, for us, started very early as part of the process because we wanted to make sure that we weren't letting the market fluctuations justify the spending of capital to do something when you could have gotten it without spending the money. So for us, it was always very much focused on, regardless of what's happening in the market, can we invest money and generate the ROI that we would like in terms of being able to justify the cost spending, et cetera. And that's why we do it versus unrenovated comp. So you're right.

If you look in our presentation, you look at some of the data points, you might look at the new lease growth on a value-add community is not the, call it, 10%, 12%, 15% premiums that you might have seen in the past, but we're still getting that good size of a premium over what we would have. So yeah, some people have used the words that's "defensive type capital." From the standpoint of what we think about this, though, is you're spending this money upfront on renovating units, and then you're ultimately looking at all of the rent growth, all of the cost savings, because it's not just in rent. There's also additional earnings that come through lower turn costs, newer kind of clubhouse stuff that you have less renovation work or less kind of maintenance work down the road. That's not factored as part of that ROI.

So for us, it's all the way again through that value chain of kind of as you're investing in these communities and really driving incremental ROI, which is why in our presentation we kind of say that our value-add communities generate roughly that 20% boost to our underlying kind of NOI growth. It really kind of makes sense from both an ROI perspective as well as from a long-term IRR perspective. In terms of the rent growth, your second question, when you renovate a unit, you might not do it, to your point, have a "defensive capital" type idea. But on year two, when that unit renews, we're able to see outsized renewal growth as well. So for us, it's every kind of piece of the pie that really makes sense. Does it make sense to continue to renovate?

As Scott kind of mentioned earlier today in a few meetings, when we were kind of heading into this year, when you did see the supply growth happening, you see kind of properties you're competing with, yes, we intentionally slowed a little bit of the value-add, not because we're overly worried about it long term. It was just, might as well spend that money in a better time in 2025 when the rent environment comes back in is better.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. And I guess why is 2,500-3,000 the magic number now? It seems like that's always sort of the target. How did you kind of come up with that target? I know it might shift in a specific year, but why is that sort of the right rate to think about and not more if it's the best use of capital?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's our best estimate. It's trial and error. We've been doing this now for about seven or eight years, and with a 33,000-unit portfolio, so we're doing about 9% of it each year, and that seems to be the number that we can achieve without being so disruptive to impact the overall operations.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

And then there's a lot of questions around value-add from me and others. But your sort of non-recurring and sort of revenue-enhancing CapEx is similar in terms of size. Could you talk about what's the difference between those two programs and then the return that you're generating on that sort of non-recurring revenue-enhancing side?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Sure. The types of CapEx that go into the recurring bucket are things that are kind of happening each and every year from fixing a retaining wall or improving a retaining wall to kind of very low-level type stuff that's happening on a property. Things that might happen, say, every 50 years, like replacing a roof, might go into the non-recurring category and/or things like putting LED lighting in or low-flow toilets or things that really kind of benefit the property for multiple cycles through a lower kind of operating expense load. For purposes of some of the items that are going into the non-recurring bucket this year in terms of ROIs, we have a few smart home deployments that we're looking at. We're also beginning to roll out some property Wi-Fi costs. So all of those are going into that bucket this year.

Again, the ROIs are kind of a little bit over the board. But generally speaking, on the property Wi-Fi, we're seeing a plus 30% kind of ROI. On the smart home, we're seeing kind of, like Scott had mentioned on the value-add, a similar kind of ROI in that kind of high teens. And then obviously LED and others are a little bit harder to kind of estimate in terms of lower utility costs.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. And we're starting to get a few questions on operations. So I'll get to those in a second. And obviously, feel free to ask. Maybe the last question on sort of capital allocation. You don't seem that interested in development today. Makes sense. I guess, would you ever consider more structured type investments or developer funding program or some preferred, something that maybe de-risked it a little bit from your perspective and then provides developers with needed capital?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

We have done a little bit of joint venture investment with developers on new construction. It has worked out just fine. We think we've de-risked it a little bit by making the investment when the development was shovel ready. All of the pre-development work was behind us. There's a construction loan in place. It really limited the timeframe for our capital being exposed to the market. We did about $100 million of that. It ended up being, I think, six communities. All but one of them is now complete. Three of them are on the market to be sold and will do just fine. Actually, we have purchase options in each one of them. We're still waiting to see what the final bids are from third parties about whether or not we want to buy them ourselves. It's worked fine.

And we're continuing to look at those opportunities going forward. As far as just straight-up development on our own, I'm still of the opinion that our balance sheet is a little bit too small. And I really don't want to add that risk to the company until we're a little bit larger. I mean, adding non-income producing assets that you're going to be holding for it could be up to five years while you're going through the development process just seems like it's something that we're not quite ready for. So maybe when we grow up.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. And then in terms of operations, as an investor question, can you talk about which of your markets will begin recovery more in 2025 and which are more weighted to 2026? Does it differ for Class B in those markets? Will more of your portfolio begin recovery in 2025 because of IRT's Class B focus? Meaning, will you see it earlier because of how you're positioned within those markets?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

I'm going to let Jason answer this one.

James Sebra
President and CFO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. So we're expecting some of the heavier supply markets historically start to see a rebound. So we're seeing Central Florida as an expected kind of rebound where we've bought two assets now in the last six months, both in East Tampa and Orlando. And we're continuing to look at the supply pressures across the board and looking at what the rebound is going to be there.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

In addition, I'll just add a little bit. When you look at markets like Tampa, we're really expecting that to rebound quite nicely here in 2025. Like Jason mentioned, a few other high supply markets from 2024 that'll continue to have a little bit of supply pressure in 2025, like Charlotte or Huntsville, they will certainly continue to kind of experience that. That being said, those markets are both very dynamic, and we literally look at what if you look at the supply growth in 2026 are really going to be setting their those markets are setting up for additional rent growth in 2026 and beyond.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

I guess some of your peers have been sort of comparing this time period to coming out of the Great Financial Crisis . Obviously, I don't have all the public data for you at that point in time. But do you agree with that comparison? Do you think it could be as good as that sort of time period? Or is it just too early to promise that level of growth?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

I actually think it's going to be better. I think that there is no real increase in supply projected for some time. I think coming out of the Great Financial Crisis , we had zero or I keep saying zero and Jim corrects me, very, very, very low interest rates, free money, which really set the stage for the supply that we've been dealing with. It was the low-cost money along with outsized rent growth that happened during the pandemic that really pushed the supply to, again, what we were dealing with over the last couple of years, well, those issues aren't there.

So, with interest rates expected to stay higher for longer and with the cost of construction, I think that we are entering, again, what will be a multiple year period, three, four years of very, very, very low additions to supply while our markets are expected, again, to see outsized population and job growth. So, we're going to be well positioned to see some good, strong continuing rent growth going forward.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

But I mean, as things recover next year, you don't think we'll just see sort of a wave of developers say, "Well, look, great, 4% or 5% rent growth. That'll probably keep going.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's not enough. You're going to need 10% plus rent growth for a couple of years. And that may happen, but it's not going to happen until the end of 2026 at the earliest. And then, as we know, it takes two years once the shovel hits the ground in order to deliver a new unit. So now you're at 2027 and 2028, and that's if all the pre-development work is done. So that's why I say we're really entering what will be a very good sustained period of rent growth.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

So those that are still building your markets today just have a kind of like a super low cost of capital, I don't know, like family office or something? They're just.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah, and they're looking at what we're looking at. And they're saying, "If we can deliver this community in late 2026, we're going to be delivering right into that strength," but most of the merchant builders out there don't have that ability.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. They got to attract LP capital and.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

They have to find the capital, and the deal just doesn't pencil out. Again, with interest rates where they are on construction loans, with the cost of construction, and with exit cap rates that are, if you just keep them consistent, you're in the mid-fives, the deal just doesn't pencil out for equity to make that investment. I'm sorry, I didn't hear you. I think at a minimum, we go back to the pre-pandemic era, and in our markets, we saw a consistent 5%-6% annual rent growth. That's at a minimum, and I'm not talking about 2025. It was 2025, we're still absorbing some of the 2024 deliveries, but when we get into 2026 and 2027.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

I understand you don't want to get into specifics on each month of rent, but you did provide a sort of first quarter projection in your presentation. It looks like you're predicting, call it 0.4% blended growth for the first quarter. That feels pretty much on track. I mean, I guess I think from your call, I came away with the idea that blends would be around flattish in the first quarter. So yeah, I mean, tell me where you think you are relative to plan thus far.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. Well, obviously, we put guidance out in mid-February, so we had already seen kind of January and February activity, and we kind of had the beginning pieces of obviously the March information. I think we're right on track with kind of where we expected in terms of how we set guidance, and we're kind of excited about the trajectory that we're on. Because when you look at it on a monthly basis, you just continue to see this little upward trajectory from December through January and then up into, obviously, the March timeframes, and obviously, March is still a little early, but call it half of the new leases are already in that we anticipate or expect to need in March. And again, we're seeing that great positive trajectory, not positive rent growth, but just positive trajectory heading north.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. One of the things that confused me, I think, is that I think the renewals were a little bit lower than the fourth quarter and the new leases were a little bit lower, but the overall blend was higher. So is that just turnover or income lower?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's just a different retention rate in the kind of the amount of renewals. So I mean, the renewals we have so far in the first quarter were just about 56%.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Okay. So renewals in the first quarter of 56% was just higher than I think it was. I can't remember. It was like 51% or 52% or something like that in the fourth quarter.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

That's right. I think the renewal, I'm sorry, the retention in the first quarter is 56%. Retention, I think in the fourth quarter was about 51% or 52%.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Okay. And then I think you made a comment that new lease growth should be sort of flattish by April. You still feel pretty good about that? Because all I can see is sort of the projection for the quarters and average across the quarter. But I guess, how do you feel about the trajectory of new lease growth and sort of April's being flattish?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. I think we really kind of think about it more for the second quarter being flattish, and it might be more in like the May kind of timeframe, but yeah, we feel pretty good about that projection of the portfolio getting back to that kind of flattish range on the new lease side in that second quarter timeframe.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. And as far as bad debt, I guess, have you started to see that come down in the first quarter? I think you said some of the increase is a little bit due to seasonality. So have you started to see that sort of bad debt come down as you work through that sort of, I don't know what to call it, but the backlog of inventory or people?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. We're beginning to see some improvement, obviously. We ended 2024 with 1.9% bad debt as a percentage of revenue, and for guidance this year, we assumed that would drop by roughly 50 basis points down to 1.4%. I think the expectation is we kind of end the year in terms of fourth quarter, roughly one and a quarter, so we're kind of running right in line with where we guided. We'll probably end the first quarter somewhere in the kind of 1.8%-1.9% and continue to see more trajectory and more progress. A lot of the new things that we did in terms of the ID verification and income verification tools, it just takes time for them to kind of take hold and work and really get some of the fraudulent residents out and not be replaced by somebody that is fraudulent or can't make their bills.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. And then I guess as far as your revenue system, your pricing system, can you maybe talk about sort of how that's changed over time? I think you've made some new hires on the operations side. And then just for our understanding, as you guys are thinking through pricing decisions, what are the main things that you're looking at within your pricing system to come up with that? I know it's algorithmic, but what are the main things that you guys talk about to analyze the health of your business?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Sure. We used RealPage's LRO tool for a really long time since probably we were public in 2013. Excuse me. In 2024, we tested and implemented a new tool called REBA and replaced LRO, so we no longer use the RealPage tools in our rent algorithm pricing. REBA is a great tool. We've been really kind of pleased with it. It uses a tool or a philosophy called lease velocity, right, in terms of what is the pace of take rate in terms of how many residents or prospects are coming in? And is there enough residents coming in, enough prospects coming in that's going to fill the, call it the vacancy targets or the occupancy targets that we set, and if it will, then rent will continue to move upward, and if it doesn't, then rent will begin to move downward, again, depending on that quote-unquote velocity speed.

That's really the kind of the key element. The other key element is really looking at when we set renewal rents, we send renewal notices out roughly 90 days ahead of time. As we set that renewal notice and that increase, kind of what we think kind of the retention rate will be based on a variety of different metrics from work orders to duration to where that lease is in terms of market rents today. It gives us the ability to kind of have a forecast around what we think retention is. We can kind of toggle that retention a little bit to really kind of hit that 55%, if not higher, based on our goals. Then at that point, we'll then know kind of how many more new leases we need to give in our occupancy.

I think, as you know, in 2024, we were really seeking to build occupancy, right? We kind of traded rent, if you will, for occupancy. This year, now that we have that stability of occupancy, we don't foresee the need to do that.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

And so I guess that begs the sort of natural questions of where are you sending out renewals today? And are they coming in at a sort of higher retention rate than you would think or basically in line with what you would think or underperforming?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. We're sending renewal notices out in the 3%-3.5% range, and the expectation is, and what we've seen so far in the first quarter, it's coming out above that 55% retention.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

On expenses, and I don't mean to put you in a tough spot with your insurance provider, but I think you said that prop taxes would be like 0% this year, be flat. I think in your non-controllables, it's only property taxes and insurance. So that would tell you that maybe you're expecting a big insurance increase. Is that effectively what's baked in for this year? Or am I thinking about that sort of non-controllable part wrong?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's actually quite the opposite. And you're right. In terms of our non-controllable expenses, it's real estate taxes and insurance. The real estate tax growth that's assumed in that 3.1% non-controllable growth is 3.7%. So midpoint of our non-controllable growth is 3.1%. We're assuming taxes are going to go 3.7%.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Taxes will be up 3.7%.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

That's right. Which means, right, you would have your insurance has to be a negative or a decrease year over year. Right now, our insurance policy renews mid-May, and we've assumed a 0% increase in the premium. So the real reason it's down year over year is just because we have additional savings from our decrease this past May that'll kind of play its way into the first four and a half months of 2025.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. Okay.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Sorry, that's a long-winded compliment.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

No, no, that makes a lot of sense. I think the transcript provider just butchered it or I can't read one of them, something like that.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

You're not the only one who was confused by that.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. In terms of other income, can you just talk about sort of what's driving the 25 basis points of other income contribution this year? I know it's not a ton, but maybe more holistically, how you're thinking through other income opportunities and making sure that they're not going to just cannibalize your rent.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

That's a great question. We obviously look at always providing amenities and services to our residents to really kind of amplify their experience with IRT. Some of the things that we've done over the years is obviously valet trash services and other things to kind of make their life day-to-day easier. That's pretty much been rolled out across the portfolio, and now we're looking at additional things that our peers have already done, but we haven't done necessarily yet, and that's property Wi-Fi, and the big initiative right now for 2025 is launching a property Wi-Fi initiative across roughly 20 properties. We're currently going through the planning phases. We anticipate having a lot of the work done by the end of the second quarter and then be able to start obviously billing for that service and providing that service to our residents in the second half of this year.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. So when you say most of the work, I mean, I think usually it's like it takes a couple of years to work through or no? Is that wrong? Maybe that's just because others were getting off of their previous Wi-Fi agreement or what have you. But I guess my understanding of it was it took a little bit longer to build out the capability or maybe you already had.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

The actual installation of the equipment, it just depends on how intensive it is. Do you have to run new fiber to each of the properties, etc.? So the actual installation of it is, I won't say quick, but thankfully we've seen others do this and have the experience or their knowledge in terms of how to do it in a quick way. And we've been planning for this, obviously. It's not just we thought about it yesterday and we're doing it. So this has been probably six months in the making. The actual billing of it to the residents becomes a challenge, right, in terms of when do you start billing it? Obviously, you begin to mandate it for all new leases and then for any renewal signed.

So you're really kind of looking at the residents that are currently not using it and that may have a renewal that at least expires in December. How do you get them to kind of come on board before their renewal option? And we're looking at different strategies to do that, maybe a little offering, a little more of a discount if they want to come on board. Because fundamentally, the service that we are planning to provide is a faster speed, a better quality internet service at a cheaper cost than they pay today. It's almost in some ways a no-brainer, a no-brainer.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

I think the margin is pretty good. I mean, it's usually like, what, 60-70 you can charge and the cost you use like 20 or something like that.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Exactly. Right now, depending on different things, we're looking at roughly $60 a month, $70 a month that we would charge. And the cost is just under $20. And then obviously, excuse me, what they currently pay for, they get roughly 100 megabits of speed. And we're offering a gig service or we plan to offer a gig service.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Gotcha. Maybe as we're getting closer to the cocktail hour here in a second, I guess we'll talk about some of the risks that are potentially out there. Because it seems very consensus, right, that somehow it's going to recover. I haven't heard too many people say that's not going to happen. I mean, maybe some on the investor and hedge fund side a bit. But I guess other than the economy, is there anything else that you could see that would really change this view? Because it's been a little while, right? I think last year people promised a certain level of rent growth. Most missed that. What's the chance that just the next year and a half is just kind of muted because we're still dealing with the supply and then supply comes back a little bit faster than you would think?

Just trying to think through what could go wrong in the scenario other than maybe just like some kind of jobs calamity or economic thing that we can't predict.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's doomsday stuff you're talking about. I think there's great consensus on the decline in new delivery. I don't expect that to change. I mean, you can look back to what construction has started, when it started, and when it's planned on being delivered. You can tell pretty clearly that by the middle of this year, that most of what has been started will be delivered. Some of it still has to be leased up. Presumably that could go a little slower than anticipated. Really what I said earlier, and I truly believe this, is that what drives real estate values ultimately is population growth and job growth. That's out of our control. We are in markets that have historically had the highest level of both population and job growth.

There's good in the areas with the better lower tax policy, which is attractive for people moving in. So we firmly expect that demand piece of the equation to continue. While everyone agrees now that the supply part of the equation is also becoming very clear, I should say. So outside of some major economic calamity in the country, I don't think there's anything that's going to get in the way of what we can accomplish.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it, and I guess maybe just quick one. I guess have you started to see at all the number of people coming in from out of state slow down? I mean, U-Haul statistics and other things would suggest that maybe some of that migration to the Sunbelt is closer to sort of pre-COVID average. Don't know if that's showing up in your data.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah. We track obviously the percentage of our move-ins over the last 90 days, the percentage of leases that move in, the percentage of our leases that come from out of state and how much of that comes from different markets, say Northeast, West Coast, etc. And while certainly it has slowed relative to kind of the post-COVID, it is still continuing at roughly the same pace, especially over the past, call it, year and a half. And some would say that's a little bit kind of pre-pandemic, but it's still great job and population. It's fueling great job and population growth in our markets.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. So rapid fire quick. Well, we had a quick one. What are the assumptions that drive the high and low end of your core FFO guidance? I guess there's probably just same store mainly, but is there anything else that would be?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

It's rent growth. I mean, that's what drives it.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Got it. So a high end would be like three or something. I don't know. I'm making that number up completely.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah, that's about right.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Okay. All right. What will same store NOI growth be for 2026 for the apartment REIT sector?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

You know, I misread your question and I read 2025. So I was all prepared.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

You're like, we just gave guidance. This is the dumbest question in the world.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

I think probably 4% for 2026.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

4%. Sunbelt will be better?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Okay.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Yeah, I'd say.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Yes. Will there be the same more or less apartment rates at this time next year?

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

I think they'll be the same.

Eric Wolfe
Director, Citi Research

Okay. Thank you.

Scott Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO, Independence Realty Trust

Thank you, everyone. Thanks for joining us.

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