Welcome to ITT's 2022 first quarter conference call. Today is Tuesday, May 3, 2022. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning 12:00 P.M. ET. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you'd like to ask a question at that time, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star followed by two. If you should require operator assistance, please dial star followed by zero. We ask you that you please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality and please ensure that you are unmuted locally before asking your question.
It's now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mark Macaluso, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning. It's my pleasure to welcome you to ITT's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me here this morning are Luca Savi, ITT's Chief Executive Officer and President, and Emmanuel Caprais, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will cover ITT's financial results for the three-month period ending April 2, announced this morning. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including comments relating to company performance, strategic priorities, business mix, market conditions, and the effects of COVID-19 on ITT. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. Actual results may vary materially due to, among other items, the factors described in our 2021 annual report and Form 10-K and other recent SEC filings.
ITT is not under and expressly disclaims any obligation to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Except where otherwise noted, the first quarter results we present this morning will be compared to the first quarter of 2021 and are based on non-GAAP financial measures. These adjusted results exclude certain non-operating and non-recurring items, including but not limited to a charge related to the suspension of operations in Russia, restructuring, acquisition-related charges and certain tax items, and in 2021, asbestos-related charges. All adjustments in the quarter are detailed, along with a reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures in our press release and presentation, both of which are available on our website. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Luca, who will begin on slide number three.
Thank you, Mark, and good morning. I would like to again begin by thanking our shareholders, our customers, and our ITTers for their continued support and investment in ITT. I'm pleased with ITT's results this quarter, considering the ever-challenging environment that we're operating in today, which further demonstrates ITT's resilience and the strength of our businesses. I continue to be confident in ITT's growth and outperformance over the long term. Before we begin, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the more than 8 million refugees from Ukraine whose lives have been impacted by the war. We are deeply saddened by the tragic losses of life stemming from the invasion of Ukraine. We will continue to support our employees in the region who remain our top priority. With this in mind, let us discuss the quarter.
Demand for our products and services remains strong across many of our end markets, and we are outperforming in most businesses. We see this in the short cycle chemical and industrial business in the Industrial Process, in aerospace and defense in Connect and Control Technologies, and in our friction business. Our teams drove 14% organic orders growth this quarter, contributing to an ending backlog of nearly $1 billion, up over $170 million from this time last year. On the strength of this demand, we drove 7% organic revenue growth, of which approximately 3% came from pricing actions across all our businesses, but most prominently in Motion Technologies. The MT team achieved over 80% of its first quarter pricing target and is stepping up incremental pricing actions given the continued rise in raw material and energy costs.
On profitability, margin this quarter was severely impacted by rising raw material, labor, and overhead costs, which continued to increase throughout the quarter. Cost inflation amounted to an approximately 760 basis point headwind, which outpaced the 270 basis point positive impact from pricing. During the first quarter, I again experienced firsthand the challenges in the global supply chain and the inefficiencies it creates in our operations. As an example, in one of the many trips that I made to Seneca Falls this quarter, we developed new actions to mitigate the impact of parts shortages, which are preventing production lines from operating at full capacity. In our outlook, we initially expected to lap the headwinds from higher raw material costs by the second half of 2022, as costs will begin to normalize and our price actions will take effect.
However, current prices for steel and tin are now above the escalated levels from 2021, which will put additional pressure on our full-year margin and earnings. Nevertheless, ITT delivered solid first quarter results in line with our expectations while continuing to invest in the future. We invested over 3% of revenues in research and development to fund key growth initiatives. On CapEx, we invested in further friction or e-PRESS capacity, including the addition of two production lines in our Silao, Mexico plant to support EV wins in North America. We are also finding product redesigns in IP and CCT, footprint optimization and closures, and new product innovations as we continue to refresh the portfolio. As an example, in Industrial Process, we are launching the third generation of our i-ALERT condition monitoring solution that more quickly and accurately diagnoses status changes and warns of issues prior to failures.
I'm particularly excited about another new disruptive technology in Industrial Process that will significantly reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. At our Investor Day in June, we will show this and other innovations to demonstrate how we differentiate from the competition. In April, we closed our second ITT Ventures investment in a technology startup focused on the rotor coating market with its groundbreaking WECODUR technology. The technology is an innovative hard coating application that allows rotors to last longer, better resist corrosion, and reduce fine dust emission. These will be critical requirements for electric vehicles. We also signed a third larger venture investment, which we expect will close in Q2, pending regulatory approval. Recently, we announced the acquisition of Habonim, an Israeli-based designer and manufacturer of valves and actuation technologies for the gas distribution, biotech, and harsh application sectors.
As Emmanuel Caprais and I witnessed firsthand when we met the team in February, Habonim has an attractive offering in LNG and is well-positioned for growth in the green hydrogen space through its ultrahigh pressure and cryogenic offerings. In addition to Israel and the Netherlands, the company has a presence in North America, which we will look to expand. I'm very happy to welcome Ilan and the Habonim team to ITT. Lastly, this quarter we repurchased nearly $190 million of ITT shares. Together with the increases in dividends and growth CapEx, we deployed over $235 million in Q1 and over $375 million year to date, including the Habonim acquisition. Moving to our outlook. We anticipate that the supply chain challenges and the higher raw material inflation we saw in Q1 will persist throughout 2022.
Demand remains strong, and we are working hour by hour to eliminate the bottlenecks that are impacting our top line growth. With these dynamics in mind, we are maintaining our full year adjusted EPS guidance range for 2022. We are trending towards the higher end of the range for organic sales growth, given the strong demand and outperformance I cited earlier. However, given the headwinds I mentioned, as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine and COVID-related lockdowns in China, we're trending towards the lower end of our range for adjusted operating margin. In summary, we are advancing the actions in ITT's control, including share gains, pricing actions, and capital deployment, while managing through market dynamics that are worse than we initially anticipated. I'm confident in ITT's ability to deliver. Let me now discuss a few points I raised in the opening.
ITT's products continue to win in the marketplace and gain share. We see that in our order rates and backlog today. Orders increased on a year-over-year and sequential basis, which drove a 24% increase in organic backlog year over year that will convert in 2022 and 2023. We continue to see broad-based demand in industrial processes short cycle pump and service offerings, while the long cycle pumps business continues to strengthen. Year-over-year, the project funnel increased over 30%, which trend across the board in mining, chemical, and oil and gas. Our short cycle run rates are well above what was an already high level of orders in prior year in all product categories, and we expect that the addition of Habonim will add to demand given their fast-growing vast portfolio and capabilities in LNG.
Orders in Connect and Control increased with the growth in commercial aerospace and new program awards in defense. The connectors business continues to grow in North America and Europe, driven by increased industrial activity and our ability to deliver on time. All in, these drove organic revenue growth of 23% in CCT for the quarter. In Motion Technologies, we continue to position ITT as the brake pad supplier of choice to OEMs, especially with electric vehicle manufacturers around the world. We won content on 15 electric vehicle platforms in the first quarter, with key wins in Europe and China. We also gained share through awards on both the front and rear axle on a major European premium OEM platform. We are maintaining the strong win rates and continue to outpace global auto production. Let's turn to slide five to review ITT's capital deployment progress in Q1.
As I previously said, capital deployment continues to be one of ITT's top priorities. We are starting to see the benefits of our heightened focus in this area, as evidenced by the activity year to date. We invested in growth CapEx to support new electrified vehicle awards in friction that will convert our EV share gains into revenue. We also continue to improve ITT's operations through our green CapEx initiative. In April, we announced a $2.5 million investment to install a solar lake in Barge, Italy, that will power nearly 30% of the innovation center's energy needs. We are well on our way to deploying the $10 million commitment in 2022 for green CapEx to create a more sustainable ITT. On repurchases, we now expect to reduce our fully share count by a minimum of 2.5%.
Given the strong historical cash generation and actions to eliminate our asbestos liability, we have a ton of firepower still to deploy, and intend to maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment. Our M and A pipeline remains very active, and we are cultivating a number of additional targets with our revamped M and A team now in place. As you have heard already, in April, we announced the acquisition of Habonim. The acquisition is now part of our Industrial Process segment. We acquired the business for $140 million, which amounts to a multiple of less than 13x EBITDA. Our goal is to build a much larger and profitable platform for growth, with Habonim being the first step in our strategy. Let me share why I'm so excited about this business. First, Habonim is a manufacturer of ball valves for harsh applications with strong brand recognition.
The company has attractive positions in gas distribution, hydrogen, chemical, and pharma markets. Second, Habonim has a strong and defensible market position, maintains close relationships with its end users, has a relentless focus on product quality, and like in ITT, customer centricity is a core value. Third is technology, both on the product and on the process. On the product, as an example, Habonim has developed a proprietary technology called Total HermetiX, which is a fully sealed valve system that guarantees zero fugitive emissions. On the process, the company has designed standard core product components while allowing for late-stage customization. All of this simplifies considerably the supply chain and production processes. Fourth, the Habonim team is comprised of highly skilled engineers and entrepreneurial leaders with expertise in applying Habonim's technology to solve the customer's most pressing needs.
Finally, Habonim has a strong track record of growth and profitability, with the sales CAGR over 10% for the past four years and EBITDA margins that are accretive to IP and ITT. I look forward to showcasing Habonim's and ITT's technologies to everyone on June sixteenth at ITT's Investor Day. Let me now pass it over to Emmanuel to review the results in more detail.
Thank you, Luca, and good morning. Let me begin on slide seven. From a top-line perspective, ITT drove 7% organic growth in the first quarter. CCT delivered 23% organic growth, driven by continued industrial connector strength and recovery in aerospace. In MT, friction was up 5% organically, driven by the continued momentum in the aftermarket. While OE was flat organically, given the ongoing chip shortage, we still outperformed global auto production. As Luca mentioned, the MT team has been relentless in driving price realization in partnership with our customers. For all of ITT, we estimate that the ongoing supply disruptions cost us approximately 600 basis points of top line growth in Q1, with the most pronounced impact in Industrial Process. Turning to operating income.
Our teams drove productivity in the quarter of roughly 350 basis points of margin through a combination of shop floor and sourcing actions, which partially offset 760 basis points of cost inflation. From an earnings perspective, adjusted EPS declined roughly 8% versus 2021, despite the 7% increase in organic revenue. The difference is largely attributable to the significant cost inflation and impact of the war in Ukraine. As a reminder, our first quarter results in 2021 were incredibly strong. We also absorbed unfavorable foreign currency, which was offset by the benefit of higher share repurchases and a lower effective tax rate. Finally, working capital requirements continue to weigh on our free cash flow generation. We are purposefully investing in inventory to ensure we are able to guarantee delivery to our customers in this difficult time.
We were also impacted by the timing of account receivable collections given the large volume of sales in December. We expect that cash generation will improve beginning in Q2, notwithstanding the inventory requirements. Let's now turn to slide eight to look further at the earnings performance. We're driving strong volume growth and productivity through deployment of the MT operating model. Included in the 0.29 of operational performance improvement is roughly 0.22 of productivity. Pricing actions contributed $0.20 to earnings, while volume contributed 0.07, with particular strength in CCT. These improvements, however, are still lagging the pace of material, labor, and overhead inflation. As a result, we are enacting incremental pricing, price increases through the portfolio to address the rising costs.
In Q1, we suspended our operations in Russia given the war in Ukraine. We see direct impacts mainly in MT and IP, as well as indirect impacts from OEM customers that sell and supply into this region. This cost us approximately 0.04 in the first quarter. In 2022, we expect this will result in a revenue decline of approximately $60-$85 million as compared to our original plan, which is factored into our current revenue outlook. Additionally, we are actively investing in M&A. These investments will help to fund future growth at ITT, and this quarter cost us roughly 0.02 of earnings. Finally, given the movement in foreign currency rates, we absorbed a 0.03 headwind in Q1 and expect this ongoing trend will drive at least a 0.09 headwind for the full year.
Offsetting this first quarter headwind is the benefit of our share repurchases and a slightly lower tax rate. Let's now turn to slide nine to review the segment results. Let me begin with Motion Technologies. Our friction OE business maintained its outstanding on-time performance at over 99%, effectively managing the global supply chain disruptions and OEM production impacts created by the war in Ukraine. MT continues to be highly differentiated thanks to its innovation and unparalleled quality and exceptional on-time delivery performance. By now, you probably are aware of the outstanding quality of our friction business that produces less than one defect per million parts. Amazingly, in Q1, the friction team has been further improving their quality performance and reduced the defect rate by double digits versus 2021.
I also want to highlight our KONI shock absorber business, which has improved its customer defect rate by an impressive 90% over the past two years, delivering an industry-leading quality performance. On profitability, MT's segment margin declined 310 basis points. This was mainly due to higher than expected material inflation, partially offset by pricing actions and productivity benefits. We're driving necessary pricing actions with our OEM customers. Finally, we completed the closure of our Lünen facility in Germany and transferred all production to Poland in Q1. For Industrial Process, organic revenue grew 2%, driven by short cycle strength, partially offset by supply chain disruptions and labor constraints. IP shipments were impacted mainly in January by the rise of the COVID-19 Omicron variant at our U.S. and India sites.
However, when looking at April, IP's performance continues to improve, especially compared to what we experienced at the beginning of Q1. On the demand side, we are encouraged by the order strength in our short cycle and project business. This was our fifth consecutive quarter of sequential order growth as short cycle demand remains strong and project activity continues to strengthen. IP's margin declined by 300 basis points. This was driven by unusually high costs for freight and materials, as well as a slow start in January due to high COVID-19 excess absenteeism. As a result, IP is undertaking substantial pricing actions to mitigate cost inflation, including a second larger price increase in March of this year. In Q1, I spent considerable time with our IP team in Seneca Falls and was impressed by the positive momentum they have generated on the shop floor over the past five months.
We're continuing to transform our operation by accelerating shop floor velocity and attacking waste in our processes. For example, we shortened the throughput of our small MT pump by over 50% by streamlining the product release process and reducing non-value added activities in the assembly line. With these improvements achieved, we're now shifting our focus to our mid-range pump line. Lastly, on Connect and Control, we had our largest order quarter since Q1 2019, despite the fact that aerospace orders are still more than 30% below pre-COVID levels. Orders grew 28% organically versus prior year, driven by 40% growth in aerospace and defense. CCT's margin expanded an impressive 550 basis points to 16.7%, driven by higher volume and shop floor productivity. Notably, CCT delivered 42% incremental margin in the face of these inflationary headwinds.
This was without the benefit of significant pricing actions, which we will begin to realize in Q2. We also expect that the product redesigns and range extension we launched, coupled with the process automation we will implement, will drive further margin expansion in the near term. Let's now turn to slide 10, where we provide an updated end market outlook. Our message here has not changed. Demand remains strong and we're winning in the marketplace. However, the dynamics we noted around pricing, cost inflation, and the war in Ukraine will impact our results in the near term. In Auto, inventories remain at historically low levels in North America and Europe, which should drive further demand, but deliveries continue to be impacted by the chip shortage. Profitability is being hit by inflation, and we're now managing through further disruptions, namely COVID in China and the war in Ukraine.
The war is also impacting our rail business. Demand remains generally strong in the industrial businesses. However, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on our top line growth and margin expansion. Regarding aerospace, demand is improving, but we're still well below sales levels from 2019. We expect this market to continue to steadily accelerate in the second half, coinciding with a further increase in global travel and a reduction in Aero OEM inventory. All of this informs our guidance update on slide 11. As you can see, we are reaffirming our guidance ranges for revenue, adjusted segment margin, and adjusted EPS. We continue to expect organic sales growth of 9%-11%.
Given our first quarter performance, the strong demand we see in IP and CCT and the incremental pricing actions we are taking, we are trending towards the high end of our organic sales range for the full year. From a segment margin standpoint, for the full year, given the significant cost inflation headwinds, we're trending towards the lower end of our current range. CCT will drive the strongest margin expansion, while MT margin will likely decline close to 200 basis points. Industrial Process margin will expand, overcoming the ongoing supply chain disruptions, which will continue to constrain delivery in the first half. Additionally, the acquisition of Habonim will temper margins in 2022 given M&A costs. As a result, we now expect IP to deliver between 15% and 16% margin for the year, with a significant improvement in Q2 compared to Q1.
Adjusted EPS will be impacted by the lost sales in Russia, as well as the impact of cost inflation. We intend to offset this through a stronger than anticipated performance in CCT, lower share count, and the addition of Habonim. The impact of these items suggests we may trend towards the lower end of our adjusted EPS guidance range. Our ability to drive better performance will depend in part on the cost of key raw materials, the pace at which we're able to realize benefits from price increases, and the impact, if any, of prolonged lockdowns in China. Given our use of cash in Q1, free cash flow will likely be lower than anticipated in a new range of $250 million-$300 million. Free cash flow margin will approximately be 8%-10%.
Longer term, we still believe we can effectively improve our cash flow profile through reductions in working capital and earnings growth. In the event supply chain disruptions do not improve and raw material inflation gets worse, we're planning to take further actions, including pricing and additional structural cost actions as we have demonstrated before. In terms of the cadence for the rest of the year, adjusted EPS for Q2 will be roughly flat sequentially to Q1. Organic sales growth in Q2 is expected to be in the mid-single digit range, thanks to the growth in CCT and to a lesser degree in MT. We expect IP organic sales to increase in Q2 and then to improve sequentially in the third and fourth quarters.
ITT's segment margin in Q2 will likely be flat to Q1 at approximately 16%, with margin expansion in IP and CCT offset by an approximate 200 basis point decline in MT margin sequentially, given the material inflation headwind. This is obviously not the type of performance we like to see from MT. However, we expect MT's margin will begin to improve sequentially in the third quarter as pricing actions are realized. With that, let me pass it back to Luca to wrap up.
Thanks, Emmanuel. Like others, ITT is managing through unprecedented market conditions. We are encouraged by the demand across the portfolio and by our team's ability to outperform in all our businesses and deliver for our customers. Thanks to this performance, ITT built a robust backlog that will provide a long runway for growth. We are delivering on our capital deployment plan while continuing to invest in the business. Our heightened and intense focus on M and A is starting to generate results, and we're ready to execute more deals in 2022. Our solid first quarter results are a testament to the resilience of ITT and its people.
I would like to again thank our ITTers, our suppliers, and our customers for working together in this unprecedented macro environment and our shareholders for their investment in ITT. As ever, it has been my pleasure speaking with you all this morning, and we will happily take your questions now. Harry, please open the line for Q&A.
The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press star one on your touch-tone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star followed by two. Again, we do ask that while you pose your question, you pick up your handset to provide optimal sound quality. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question is from Damian Karas of UBS. Damian, your line is open now if you would like to proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Damian.
Hey, Damian.
I wanted to ask you about the guidance here and your assumptions for price cost. You know, how do you see that playing out as we progress through the coming quarters? You know, are you expecting to kind of get price cost neutral by year-end or still exiting the year with that as a headwind? You know, it does sound like you're expecting MT to get worse before it gets better. Maybe if you could just kind of elaborate on what you're seeing across the supply chain and your manufacturing footprint that you know gives you confidence, Luca, in the ability to achieve that margin guide for the year.
Let me talk about pricing and a little bit of supply chain, and eventually, Emmanuel, you can deep dive later. When it comes to pricing, of course, we made progress, but there's still much more to do on the IP and CCT front. This is where probably you don't face the biggest difficulties because it's easier just going through the distribution channel, et cetera. You pointed it out correctly, it's more on MT and particularly on friction. On pricing, I think that our team, and specifically the friction team, are making progress. I can give you a couple of example where the friction team has closed the negotiation with a couple of tier ones and a couple of OEMs in a very fair and just agreement.
The customers, you know, audited the extra cost, and we closed it in a very nice way. There are still some negotiation that are happening, and I'm positive that they will reach a fair and just solution with our valued customers. This has increased and improved quarter after quarter. If you think that just in Q1, we were able to achieve the same amount in millions of dollars that we had for the full year in 2021. That's on the pricing. On the supply chain, I think that the challenges that we have seen are persisting. These are very true, particularly in IP, that has been impacted in terms of the revenue.
We do not necessarily see that really improving substantially until probably the second half or maybe Q4 of this year.
In terms of the impact quarter after quarter, in Q1, we were, as Luca mentioned, not able to completely compensate the cost inflation we've been facing, mainly driven by delays in getting pricing at MT. The impact on the margin was roughly a little less than 200 basis points for the quarter. We expect that in Q2 and in the next quarters, this will moderate as we're able to step up our pricing performance as well as increase productivity. In Q2 we'll be better, and the margin impact will be a little less than 100 basis points.
Roughly for the full year, we'll benefit from the improvement in terms of pricing in Q3 and Q4.
Okay. That's helpful. In IP, you're seeing a lot of activity on the project front. Maybe if you could just give some additional color around the types of awards you're seeing. You know, how should we think about conversion there? You know, is it at some point later this year, there's going to be a significant step up or, you know, just kind of more of a slower grind over time, you know, over the next few years as you kind of work through supply chain conditions?
When you look at IP, you know, IP orders have been an exceptional performer this quarter. Again, on the short cycle, this was the best that we've ever seen and stronger than, you know, even Q4, which was exceptionally strong. The projects definitely have returned. If you think about our project orders are 59 million in the quarter with an increase 45% year over year. On top of that, also the funnel is solid. When you look at the sectors is across the board, is in oil and gas, is in chemical, is in general industrial. We see it across the regions, if it is Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East.
Definitely a strong orders performance in project and strong funnel.
Just one last thing regarding IP and our ability to convert. Obviously this quarter we mentioned 600 basis points of impact on our sales growth, and most of it due to IP. I think when you think about the situation there, we have difficulties on a number of components, whether it is casing, motors.
As seals as well, and it's difficult to get all those components on time. We're really driving the conversion, and this was the example that we've given in terms of reduction in the throughput time is one of them, but it's still very difficult.
Thank you. Our next question is from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Joe, your line will be open now if you'd like to proceed.
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Hi, Joe.
Guys, can you maybe just provide. I want to drill down a little bit further into pricing. You know, last quarter, I think you had set a target of roughly $100 million for the year. Luca, I think in your prepared comments you said that MT got 80% of the one key number you were expecting. Can you guys just maybe parse out how much are you now expecting for price for the year, and how does that break out by segment on a dollar basis?
Yeah, you're right, Joe. We targeted $100 million. Even though we fell a little bit short in Q1, we also realized that it's not sufficient. We increased our target by roughly $80 million. We're now targeting something between $160 million-$180 million. This is mainly driven by MT. MT is the value center that is impacted the most by inflation on steel, tin, and copper. As a result, we need to be compensated for that by our customers, and this is why we have increased our pricing recovery target.
Emmanuel, just how far along are you in locking in the new 160-180 target? You know, at what point do you expect those negotiations to conclude, you know, such that you feel confident that you're able to achieve those numbers in the back half of the year?
As Luca mentioned, we are stepping up overall the ITT price recovery target. Some of it is going to come from CCT and IP also, where as Luca mentioned, it's easier to get price. It's not really the majority of the price increase, but it's still pretty substantial. In terms of our pricing, I would say that we're making continuous progress. In Q2, we have specifically stepped up our actions with customers that have not been as cooperative as we would expect, and we expect to see significant improvement already in Q2 and in Q3.
At the end, Joe, I think that if you look at the performance of friction in terms of on-time delivery at 99%, the performance on quality, these are all characteristics that the customer are valuing quite a lot. In the challenging market environment that we have today, securing the supply is critical and strategic. We are confident that we will find the proper, just, and fair agreement with our customers.
No, that's super helpful. If I could maybe just follow up one more quick one just on China. I know that the guidance doesn't include, you know, an impact from China, you know, staying in a prolonged lockdown. Just maybe provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing on the ground there and what your expectation is for the rest of the year.
Sure. When it comes to China, you know, we have two plants, Joe. One is the connector plant in Shenzhen and the friction plant in Wuxi. When you look at Q1 already had the impact of the lockdowns that we had in Shenzhen. When that happened, our plant kept operating because we have dormitory, we operate in a closed loop, and actually we shut down the factory only for one day. When it comes to friction, the impact of the lockdowns in Shanghai and automotive are not really into Q1 because that started towards the end. The way that we're operating in Wuxi, where we don't have the dormitory, we are still operating in closed loops. We put our people in a close by hotel so that they'll not have exposure outside the hotel and the shop floor and the plant.
We are securing the supply with an investment in inventory. We step up our inventory over there. The supply and the way that we are operating the plant is secured. We never stop. It's more a question of the demand. You're rightly in saying that the demand in Q2 will be impacted. I think the worst month has been April. April will be the worst one with probably the highest reduction in terms of demand, particularly if you think about all the plants that are around Shanghai. May will be a little bit better and recovery will start really in June at the end of Q2.
Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Halloran of Baird. Mike, your line will be open if you'd like to proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
Hi, Mike.
On, on the, uh...
Hey, everyone. On the auto side of things, maybe just give a little context to how you're thinking about end market demand for the remainder of the year. Obviously, a lot of puts and takes happening right now with, which you just referenced China, Europe, supply chain challenges. How do you think that cadences out, and at what point in time do you think inventory can start catching up a little bit?
Okay. Thanks, Mike. Obviously, you know, the market for 2022 will not be as positive as originally forecasted by IHS. You know, IHS was thinking 8.5%, is already down to 4.4% for 2022. You know we always approach it in a more conservative way, so we think that actually Europe will probably be, you know, up flat to up low single digits. China will be down low single digits, and North America will be up single digits. But what we're, you know, the way that we perform, we will be able to overcome the lack of growth in the market with our outperformance.
If you think about, you know, the awards that we had in Q1 was a perfect quarter in the awards because we re-won everything that we were in and was up for renewal, and we added on top some platforms where we were not present. That will keep on feeding our market share gains and our outperformance. It's tough to operate in this environment because the volatility is incredibly high, but the team has performed incredibly well with the 99% on-time delivery so far. Now, going back to the inventory, because that was the second part of your question, I mean, the demand is there. The inventory are at record low for North America and Europe. Because of the challenge on the supply chain, I don't really see that changing in 2022.
Great. Thanks for that. Follow-up just on the capital deployment. Obviously, you've got a lot going on, both internally with the capital you're spending internally as well as externally. When you think about the external balance between the M and A and the buyback side of things, do you think you can keep this cadence up going forward? Obviously, you got a lot of bandwidth. You know, the guidance implies some further share repurchase from here. Maybe some context on how you balance that with what the pipeline might look like on the M andA side.
Okay. The pipeline is a very good pipeline. It's robust, and it's full of opportunities, some like Habonim. If you think Habonim was an exclusive deal. We cultivated this deal for quite a while, and we were able to bring it home without getting into a process. We have some of those. It's rich. They're at different stage in the funnel, so I'm confident that we will do more deals in 2022. Now, if things do not work out because different expectation or else, of course, we will go back to the share repurchases. I would say first priority is organic investment, second is M and A, and of course then is share repurchases and dividends.
Thank you. Our next question is from Jeffrey Hammond of KeyBank. Jeff, your line is now open. Please proceed.
Hey, Good morning, guys.
Morning.
Hi, Jeff.
I just want to be clear. The organic growth at the high end, that's despite the 60 million-85 million headwind from Russia?
Correct.
That's correct, Jeff.
Okay. You'd be two-three points above if not for Russia. Can you break out kind of where that. Because it seems like it touches a number of businesses, kind of how you think that 60-85 kind of falls across the segments?
Sure. Obviously we have really strong order momentum in IP and CCT. We 60-85, the Russia impact.
I'm sorry. The Russia impact. Sorry, I apologize. In terms of the Russia impact, this is mainly coming from MT and IP. We have two kinds of impacts. We have direct impact, which is basically everything that we sell directly into Russia, and that's around $60 million. That is probably equally split between IP and MT. We have the indirect impact, which is due to the lower production either of our OEM customers in auto, which is either due to the lack of supply that were produced in Ukraine and Russia and/or less sales into Russia from an indirect standpoint. That accounts for the rest.
This is the impact on Russia.
Okay, perfect. IP, you know, it seems like the margins step up nicely 1Q to 2Q, and I'm just trying to understand, you know, what are the moving pieces there 'cause you still seem pretty confident about the margin trajectory there.
Sure. So obviously we were disappointed in the Q1 performance. A lot of the revenue we were expecting in January didn't come out, and then we tried really hard to catch up in February and March. Given the Omicron impact, it was very difficult. When we look at Q2, the improvement in margin is going to be driven by, obviously, volume. We're going to have more volume, and April is already showing really nice increase compared to what we've seen in January. And then we're going to have a step-up in terms of pricing. We launched a pricing campaign in March that's going to yield results in Q2, as well as improved productivity. Those are the main drivers for margin expansion sequentially in IP.
Jeff, just to give you a sense in terms of touch, January and part of February we were impacted heavily by COVID. If you think about in 2021, our average number of new cases per month were roughly 50, 60 people, new cases every month. In January, it was 800 people. In February was around 450 and a couple of hundred in March. Most of that in the US and the Seneca Falls was impacted heavily. You think about the under-absorption that you have during the month of January and half of February. This is not the case right now.
Great. Thank you. Our next question is coming from Vladimir Bystricky of Citi. Vlad, your line is now open. Please proceed. Vladimir Bystricky of Citigroup.
Sorry.
Your line is now open.
Yep. I'm here. Sorry about that, guys. Good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
Can you just talk maybe a little bit more specifically around the organic growth outlook? 'Cause I mean, you're absorbing, you know, meaningful headwinds for Russia, but now you know, the outlook is unchanged, and you're talking about the top end of the range. Can you talk more specifically about what's getting better to offset the headwinds? Is it mainly the incremental pricing actions you're putting in place, or is there something else where you're seeing better trends on the organic growth outlook?
Sure, Vlad. Obviously, we are impacted positively by higher growth rates in terms of orders, specifically in IP and CCT. We're seeing really good orders that we will convert in 2022 and 2023 from all different end markets. Luca mentioned our growth is really across the board, chemical, oil and gas, mining and general industrial are all double digits. That will help us in converting into revenue in 2022. Pricing also will be a positive impact. As for CCT, we're really seeing our orders taking off in aerospace defense, but also general industrial for both components and connectors. As we mentioned, we've launched a new pricing campaign that will impact our Q2 revenue and then obviously Q3 and Q4.
Those two main businesses are going to really drive incremental revenue both from a volume and a pricing standpoint.
If I can build on what Emmanuel said, if you think about CCT, the momentum that commercial aerospace is having right now will be a tailwind for 2022. As a matter of fact, this quarter, Q1 2022, is the first quarter when our components business is actually growing year-over-year in revenue. This is after eight quarters of decline. This is an important tailwind at a very good incremental margin.
Okay. That's great to hear. That's encouraging on the aero side. Maybe just to follow up on the momentum you're seeing in the IP projects orders, can you talk more? I know you mentioned it's broad-based and across regions and industries, but can you talk about you know really what's driving that? Is it the deferred CapEx that's coming back now? Are you seeing any greenfield activity? Then specifically in North America, are you seeing any signs of you know reshoring driven type activity?
I think that there are different components, you know, Vlad, into this. If we think about, you know, the oil and gas, you know, the fact that this sector didn't receive the proper investment in the last few years, of course, we start seeing that across the board, which is also in the Middle East. Of course, we don't see right now, but there will be investment in Europe if you think about the energy challenge that they will have to face in the next couple of years in becoming less dependent from the Russian gas. Then obviously, there is the expectation of a more capital investment in North America because of the reshoring.
All of these are pieces of the puzzle that makes us think positive about, you know, projects for IP.
Okay. Thanks.
Our next question is from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Andrew, your line is now open. Please proceed.
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Morning, Andrew.
Morning, Andrew.
Can we just dig into a little bit more IP because, you know, I think Flowserve had a similar narrative regarding their sort of pumps, you know, this whole idea that COVID hit early in the quarter. I'm just trying to understand because, you know, when everybody sort of just guided in the industry in mid-February. Was the surprise inability to catch up in the second half of Q1? I just want to get a better understanding of what specifically were the pinch points in the pump supply chain that limited ability sort of to ship and get margins up. Thank you.
Hi, Andrew. If we think about IP, I think that some of the challenges, of course, the COVID, you know, absenteeism was a big challenge in January, and continued for the first half of February. Some of that we were not able to recover. That was practically because of the supply chain challenges that continue to persist. As Emmanuel Caprais said, if you think about it, in terms of revenue that we were not able to deliver in Q1 that we will deliver later in the year was roughly $30 million for IP. This is because of seals, of motors, of casting.
For that, if you think about that reason, $30 million of revenue, you know, that would have been quite a nice contribution in terms of margin and would have delivered a margin which was more aligned to what was probably last year. It was really the supply chain that didn't improve towards that. They didn't allow us to recover in Q1.
Got you. The follow-up question, just as you think about organization, you know, you have this unprecedented volatility in terms of supply chain, in terms of input prices, right, ability to actually source stuff. Can you just talk about, you know, what kind of conversations are you having with your supply chain in order sort of to take out this volatility? You know, because you guys have managed it remarkably well. If you could share with us, if you can, you know, do you have to extend contracts with your suppliers? Do you have to pay more versus the spot price?
You know, how do you ensure, in this unprecedented environment, you know, sort of availability of product and some sort of visibility as much as you can as to what kind of price you have to pay in the second half? Thank you.
Hi, Andrew. It's really a mix, Andrew. We do not have a silver bullet that it says is going to solve it. Let me give you a couple of examples which may give you some color and to understand exactly how we're operating. When it comes to Motion Technologies, I was talking to Silvano in Shanghai. Practically how we were able to do that is we increased the inventory. Some of the warehouses were locked down in Shanghai. You couldn't get access. In that cases, you're working with the government to get a special permission so that you have a special permission to get there and get the material that are critical for your production.
Sometimes you really have a special team that goes and pick up truck at the highway gate to guide them to campus. This is how the China team operated so far in China to guarantee the level of service. When you're looking at the Shanghai port, you stay ahead of the game and you're shifting your shipment from the Shanghai port to other ports nearby or towards the north of China. There are challenges out there. Some of our suppliers are also, in terms of steel, are not willing to commit to the full volume when it comes to Q4 of this year. You keep on staying on the ball, you keep on talking to them, and you must guarantee the supply.
This is the rule of the game today, is guaranteeing the supply for ourselves, and this is also some of the leverage that we have with our customers because we're able to deliver for them.
In terms of financial. Obviously, this has a financial impact. It has a financial impact because we have to hold more inventory. Also, in some cases, we had to prepay some suppliers in order to secure parts to be delivered to our facilities. It has an impact on our cash performance as you have been able to see in the first quarter.
Excellent. Thank you. Our next question is from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Nathan, your line is now open. Please proceed.
Good morning, everyone.
Morning, Nathan.
I wanted to go back to price cost productivity. Correct me if any of these numbers are wrong. You talked about 760 basis points of headwind from cost, 370 of tailwind from price, and 350 of tailwind from productivity. I think the business would typically be negative on price cost, mostly out of the MT segment that you typically make up with productivity, but it clearly wouldn't have had that bigger spread. Can you talk about that kind of dynamic historically, how far behind you typically are on price cost that you make up every year with productivity primarily out of the MT business?
On price cost, as we mentioned, we were behind in Q1, and this was both from a lower price recovery performance as well as increased cost inflation that we're seeing mainly on raw materials. That impacting us negatively, and this impact is coming mostly from MT. As we move forward, we're really pushing on price recovery and productivity. Because cost inflation, as Luca mentioned, it is what it is. We're not able to really impose any type of price with customers. With the suppliers, we're battling to get supplies. We're driving price with our customers, and trying to really differentiate ourselves in making sure that we provide the value that others cannot provide.
We are increasing our price recovery targets, as I mentioned earlier, and this is going to be a central piece of us being able to recover the cost inflation that we're facing. Productivity for sure is very important, but this is not going to make the difference. Price is going to make the difference in order to recover the cost inflation we're facing.
Nathan, if you look at Motion Technologies in
I guess the-
Go ahead.
Yeah, go ahead, Vincenzo.
No, if you look at Motion Technologies in Q1, we have the gross productivity of more than 400 basis points, but then inflation is more than 1,000, material is 800 basis points. You have overhead, which includes energy, which is roughly 200 basis points. To Emmanuel's point, gross productivity is not able to cover for that. You have to go for pricing.
I guess my question is, where would you have been historically? 'Cause I know you have price downs in the Motion Technologies business. I mean, this is obviously where the price cost spread is historically negative. You have price downs in that business that you typically make up for in productivity. What if I look at, you know, cost minus or price plus productivity minus cost, you were fairly close to neutral overall in the business. Where is that historically been? Have you historically been able to use price and productivity to overcome cost inflation, or, you know, are you back down to neutral here? Just trying to get a sense of where that would be historically for the business.
Yeah. Historically, we would be able to drive the margin equation by really driving productivity because as you rightly mentioned, price was a negative impact on margin, and we would be probably in Motion Technologies between 1.5%-2% price down every year-over-year. We were able to continuously improve the margin because we would drive productivity, and at this point, the cost inflation will be really tamed. Right now what we're seeing is that we're able to continue to drive productivity, and we're able to get price increases. The problem is that the cost inflation is outpacing our cost, our price recovery. As a result, this is a negative equation for MT and for ITT.
Thank you. Our next question is from Joseph Giordano of TD Cowen. Joe, your line is now open. Please.
Hey, good morning. This is Robert Jamieson in for Joe. I just wanted to ask a couple questions about Europe. The first one, just with the war in Ukraine, can you give us a little bit of color on what you're seeing on the changes to the energy landscape there? Are there potential opportunities where you could benefit?
Okay. You know, the thing that we've seen is. See, we don't necessarily see yet in the pipeline the necessary investment to reverse from, you know, the Russia dependency. This is something that will happen just because of the geopolitical environment. That will be, you know, it could be more LNG investment in terms of terminals for, you know, things coming from Qatar or from the U.S. We haven't seen those yet in the pipeline, but we know that they are a work in progress, and that would be a positive tailwind for IT. We're talking about medium-term, not short-term.
Okay, great. That helps. Just another one. You know, has this had any impact on your M and A strategy in Europe and kind of the different assets you're looking at there? I think you're looking at some opportunities within rail. Yeah, just like an update on that as well.
Sure. Now, of course, the situation in Europe is dramatic. I would say when we look at our acquisition, the areas that, you know, the business that we are looking at being, you know, in the pumps and in the valves, being on the connector side of the business or in rail, the opportunities are there. We are cultivating both in Europe and in North America. This is where the geography, where our pipelines are, and has not really changed. Of course, you know, we are not looking at acquisitions in the eastern part of Europe at this moment in time.
Thank you very much. Our final question for today is from Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson. Matt, your line is now open. Please.
Hi, this is Will Jellison on for Matt Summerville this morning.
Hey, good morning.
Hi, appreciate you.
Good morning.
Hey, thank you for squeezing me in last minute here. I want to ask two questions. The first regarding capital deployment. You put a lot of resources to work in the first quarter, and I'm wondering to what extent has your thinking about capital allocation been influenced by inflation and the fact that it has become more costly to hold net cash on the balance sheet. I'm just wondering if your thinking has changed at all in response to that.
Of course, you know, the inflation is the challenge that we're facing today for the quarters to come. Having said that, the use of capital is something that was important before and is even more important now. I would say the strategy has not really changed. We planned it. The capital deployment was a top priority at the beginning of the year. It's a top priority now. When you look at the deployment of the capital, it's organic first, M and A, and then, you know, share repurchase and dividends third.
Will, I would say that for us, the consequence is that when we look at targets, what's really important for us is to understand their pricing power and how they're able, in this environment, to differentiate from the competition. This is something that we saw with Habonim, for instance.
Understood. Okay, thank you. Then I want to pivot here and ask you about your friction business. I'm wondering if you can help me understand a little bit better what's driving the fact that you continue to win share in that business. Is it a function of the fact that you can continue to deliver on time 99% of the time where others can't? Or is it a function of the fact that ITT's great solutions in that business happen to be higher quality than the other solutions that are out there? I think it's a mix of things. Of course, the delivery is one component. Quality that Emmanuel was talking about is another.
It's also the speed in finding the solution, the fact that, you know, our R&D and our performance in terms of material science is better and faster than the competition. There is a cost advantage as well. We have a lower cost structure than most of our competitors, and therefore this allows us to win in the market when sometimes they can't. It's a combination definitely of things.