Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 5, 2021

Welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital Second Quarter 2021 Investor Conference Call. All participants are in a listen only mode until the question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Jack Bateman, Investor Relations. Mr. Bateman, you may begin your call. Thank you, and welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. The management team and I are delighted you joined us and we look forward to sharing with you our prepared remarks and conducting a question and answer session. Before turning the call over to our CEO, John Anzalone, I wanted to provide a reminder that statements made in this conference call The related presentation may include forward looking statements, which reflect management's expectations about future events and our overall plans and performance. These forward looking statements are made as of today and are not guarantees. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that actual described in our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks and subsequent filings with the SEC. Invesco makes no obligation to update any forward looking statement. We may also discuss non GAAP financial measures during today's call. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures may be found at the end of our earnings presentation. To view Again, welcome and thank you for joining us today. I'll now turn the call over to John Insulin. John? Good morning and welcome to Invesco Mortgage Capital's 2nd quarter earnings call. I'll give some brief comments before turning the call over to our Chief Investment Officer, Brian Norris to discuss the current portfolio in more detail. Also joining us on the call to participate in the Q and A are our President, Kevin Collins our CFO, Lee Fegley and our COO, Dave Lyle. I am pleased to announce earnings available for distribution for the 2nd quarter came in at $0.10 per share. As we noted in our press release, we have replaced The term core earnings with earnings available for distribution. This is in keeping with changing industry conventions and does not reflect any change in how the measure is calculated. Despite an extremely challenging quarter for Agency Mortgages, earnings available for distribution continue to be supported by strong dollar rolls, relatively slow prepayment speeds Our specified pool collateral and a more favorable reinvestment environment. During the quarter, we made progress in rebalancing our capital structure by redeeming all $140,000,000 of our Series A preferred stock and raising an additional $145,900,000 of common equity. The portfolio remains predominantly agency focused with 92% of our equity and 99% of our assets allocated to agency mortgages. Our liquidity position remains strong as we held $651,000,000 of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments at quarter end. Agency mortgages sharply underperformed during the quarter as elevated net supply, reduced demand from commercial banks, Persistent prepayment concerns and an increased likelihood that the Federal Reserve's timeline for reducing asset purchases would be accelerated more than offset Steady Fed demand. Our book value performance reflected this underperformance ending the quarter down 12% to $3.21 Looking ahead, many of the headwinds at the mortgage basis faced during the Q2 remain intact. Prepayment speeds moderated during the quarter, but remained elevated And the lower interest rate environment at quarter end should keep prepayments near historic highs over the coming months. Increases in inflation across many parts The economy keeps the uncertainty around the Fed's plan to taper its asset purchases at a heightened level. While these factors remain challenging, We expected the recent widening of spreads along with a favorable funding environment through both traditional repo and via dollar rolls to continue to help support the earnings power of our portfolio over the coming quarters. I'll stop here and let Brian go through the portfolio. All right. Thanks, John, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'll begin on Slide 4 in the upper left hand chart, which details the changes in the U. S. Treasury yield curve since year end. As indicated by the dark blue line, the 2nd quarter ended with a partial reversal of the Q1's sharp rise in long term yields, resulting in a flattening of the yield curve. Market optimism resulting largely from the successful rollout of COVID-nineteen vaccinations and reopening of the service sector became a bit more muted after an uptick in cases due to the more contagious Delta variant. In addition, the Federal Reserve successfully dampened the market's initial concern regarding increase in year over year inflation by effectively communicating their projections for a softening of inflation pressures as the reopening of the economy moves forward. As noted, these adjustments resulted in a bull flattening of the yield curve as short term interest rates with 3 years or less to maturity increased by a modest 5 to 10 basis points, while longer term 10 to 30 year rates declined approximately 30 basis points. This move was exacerbated by short covering in the interest rate swap market as positions designed to benefit from a move higher in rates were forced to unwind, resulting in tighter swap spreads during the quarter as indicated by the chart in the lower left hand section of Slide 4. Both the flatter yield curve and tighter swap Spreads had negative ramifications for the Agency RMBS market despite a continuation of attractive funding rates as indicated in the upper right hand chart and strong demand from both the Federal Reserve and Commercial Banks indicated in the lower right hand chart. Moving on to Slide 5, where we provide more detail on Agency RMBS Market. In the upper left hand chart, we show year to date generic lower coupon Agency RMBS performance versus swap hedges, highlighting the Q2 in gray. As you can see, agency mortgages underperformed sharply in May June, offsetting modest gains in April As the flatter yield curve led to reduced demand from commercial banks, while the decrease in the 30 year mortgage rate increased prepayment concerns. Agency MBS investors, given the sharp economic recovery and hawkish commentary from non voting FOMC members began to price in the potential for an earlier than expected tapering of asset purchases, including the possibility of a faster pace or earlier start in Agency RMBS relative to U. S. Treasury purchases. In addition, net supply remained elevated, totaling $290,000,000,000 during the quarter, which was double the annual average during the 10 year period from 2010 to 2019. The $470,000,000,000 of net supply during the first half of twenty twenty one nearly matches the $508,000,000,000 of net supply for the full year 2020. And although we expect the pace of net issuance to decline during the second half of the year, 2021 annual market projections have increased to over 700,000,000,000 Far surpassing 2020's record total. Specified pool pay ups as shown in the upper right were relatively unchanged after from higher mortgage rates in February March. We expect the recent decline in mortgage rates combined with the strength of the housing market to keep prepayment speeds elevated in the coming months. Lastly, the lower right hand chart details the implied financing rate for dollar roll transactions in 30 year 2%, 2.5% and 3% TBAs. The implied financing rate is the reinvestment As indicated in the chart, implied financing rates improved during the quarter as the yield curve flattened, increasing the attractiveness of the dollar roll market for investors in lower Slide 6 provides detail on our Agency RMBS investments and our activity during the 2nd quarter. Elevated valuations early in the quarter combined with increasing headwinds in the sector prompted us to reduce exposure to Agency RMBS through a combination of asset sales and prepayments. As indicated in the upper left hand chart, our exposures remain focused in lower coupons 30% or 2% and 2 2.5% specified pools and TBA. However, we moved modestly higher in the coupon stack as cheaper valuations and 30% or 3% providing an attractive entry point. During the quarter, we purchased $1,600,000,000 of 30 year 3 percent specified pools funded by sales of 30 year 2.5 percent pools as higher rates and wider spreads improved projected returns and higher coupons. During the quarter, we continued to rotate in the lower pay up specified pools as we remain focused on mitigating our exposure to elevated pay ups. As indicated in the chart at the bottom of Slide 6, we sold higher Our specified pool holdings had a weighted average payoff of 0.6 Points as of sixthirty, a modest increase from a half a point as of threethirty one, reflective of our move into higher coupons. The weighted average yield on our Agency RMBS holdings improved 16 basis points to 2.04% as of quarter end, While prepayments on our holdings remain low at 6.4% CPR for the quarter, we believe the strength of dollar rollover market And wider spreads present attractive entry points with ROEs on lower coupon dollar rolls in the mid teens and specified pools ranging from 9% to 11%. Our remaining credit nets are attractive holdings as 100% are held on an unlevered basis and provide attractive unlevered yields. Lastly, Slide 8 details our funding book at quarter end as shown in the chart on the upper left. Repurchase agreements collateralized by CRMBS declined to $7,900,000,000 as of June 30, given the modest decline in our holdings. Hedges associated with those borrowings decreased to a net $5,300,000,000 notional of pay fixed received floating interest rate swaps as further confidence in the duration of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy stance provided an opportunity to reduce our hedge ratio from 77% to 67% during the quarter. The weighted average interest rate On our hedge book remained unchanged at 0.41 percent, while further improvements in Agency RMBS Borrowing costs led to a decline in our weighted average funding rate to 0.1% as of June 30. In order to hedge additional exposures further out the We held $1,300,000,000 notional of forward starting interest rate swaps with starting dates in 2023 concurrent with our expectations for potential adjustments in monetary policy. Our economic leverage when including TBA exposure ticked modestly higher during the quarter to 6.8x debt to equity as we remain conservatively positioned 5 worst quarters for relative performance Since the European debt crisis in the fall of 2011 and combined with the underperformance in the Q1, one of the worst 6 month returns since 2008. Although Agency RMBS valuations remain at relatively high levels on a historical basis, we believe elevated valuations in other high quality fixed income alternatives should keep any potential for further Agency RMBS underperformance relatively muted compared to the first half of the year. Positively, net supply should wane as we move into the second half of the year and strong bank and Federal Reserve demand should continue to Thank you for your continued support for Invesco Mortgage Capital. And now we will open the line for Q and A. We will now begin our formal question and answer And the first question is coming from Doug Harter of Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Good morning, everyone. This is Josh on for Doug. This is Brian. We've seen about 25 basis points of widening from the types that we saw in mid May. The expectation is that we'll probably see another 10 basis points to 15 basis points of widening. That's not necessarily going to occur before tapering begins, but kind of throughout the process. So we think that the Any further widening will be much more gradual than what we saw during the Q2. So I I think ultimately about 40 basis points wider from the types that we saw in May is a reasonable assumption over the next call it couple of quarters. Great. Makes sense. Thanks for that, Brian. And then curious if you could give us an update on How book value has trended quarter to date? Thank you. Yes. Quarter to date, we're roughly down about 2%. Great. Thanks so much for the comments. Yes. The next question is coming from Trevor Cranston, JMP Securities. Hey, thanks. Good morning. Wondering if you can talk about your outlook for pre phase speeds with rates continuing to fall in July, The removal of the adverse market refi charge and specifically how responsive you think The coupons you guys own would be to mortgage rates dropping back meaningfully below 3%. Hey, Trevor, this is Brian. I think generically speaking for the market, we expect prepayment speeds to remain Fairly elevated as you noted, I think the 30 year mortgage rate is around 280 now. So certainly it's dropped 40 or 50 basis points from March levels. So we think that prepaid speeds, particularly in 2.5 coupons and higher are going to remain elevated. For our bonds, we continue to see pretty low levels Prepayments, and that's partially due to the well, the lack of seasoning of our holdings. So we do expect that to drift a little bit higher. We don't expect it to be too dramatic. We still have a fair amount of our holdings in 2% pools, which we expect to Continue to pay relatively slow at these rate levels. If we were to move even lower than that can come into question. But We expect our 2.5% and 3% pools to drift a little bit higher from here, but our 2s to be relatively stable. Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then with respect to the interest rate environment, It seems like agency spreads have been more stable in the Q3 as rates have come down. I was just curious to get your thoughts on how you think MBS would generally perform if the tenure does continue to move lower and the old curve flattens? And conversely, how you think they'd perform The back up in rates again. Yes. The widening that we've seen since quarter end has been a little bit Gradual, yes, as we noted relative to kind of the second half of the second quarter. Mortgages Should continue to underperform into bull flatteners, so as longer rates continue to rally. But conversely, I think mortgages could do okay. I think banks have a decent amount of cash to put to work. So they're just waiting for Kind of a modest backup in rates and mortgages should handle that pretty well. Okay, got it. Appreciate the comments. Thank you. The next question is coming from Jason Stewart, Jones Trading. Your line is open. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Quick follow-up on the I guess on the FHFA changes. How are you thinking about what Senior Thompson may or may not do The portfolio for any potential impact. Yes. We do think that The changes at the FHFA should be more borrower friendly, which means that it should be easier for Higher coupon borrowers and lower credit borrowers to refinance. So that means that higher coupons should continue to see Elevated prepayments, particularly at these rate levels. So, we've avoided Anything higher than 3% coupon and we think that those coupons will continue to struggle in this environment. Okay. Do you have a house view on how the policy evolves from this point going forward? As far as Conservatorship, I think that they're clearly going to approach that more slowly than the previous administration. So I think we have a fair amount of time. But again, I think the new policies will be more geared towards being borrower friendly And increasing access to these lower mortgage rates. Okay. Appreciate it. Thanks. Yes. At this time, we have no further questions in queue. Okay. Well, I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on the call and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thanks. This will conclude today's conference. All parties may disconnect at this time.