Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Q3 2021 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, to Ms. Ripple Zhang, JinkoSolar's Investor Relations Manager. Please proceed, Ripo.
Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining us today for JinkoSolar Q3 2021 earnings conference call. The company's results were released earlier today and available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com, as well as on Newswire services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website. On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Mr. Gener Miao, Chief Marketing Officer of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. Mr. Pan Li, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., and Mr. Charlie Cao, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company highlights, followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing, and then Mr.
Pan Li, who will go through the financials. They will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under the applicable law. It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding. Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin, and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead, Mr. Li.
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We are very pleased to have delivered total shipments of approximately 5 GW, total revenues of $1.33 billion, and gross margin at 15.1%. Total shipments were impacted by the delay in sales revenue recognition caused by logistical issues and blockage. The release of new cell capacity significantly reduced cell production costs, partially offsetting the pressures on production costs inflicted by the high prices of polysilicon and other materials. Logistical costs have further increased compared with the Q2, and module prices hit a new high in almost a year. However, due to the transition to renewable energy in most regions of the world, the increase in electricity prices, financing support, and other favorable policies, clients are more willing to accept higher module prices.
Despite all the challenges, global installation this year has not differed from expectations set at the beginning of the year, as the resilience of solar demand is gradually increasing. Currently, in its most severe shortage, we expect polysilicon supply will gradually return to sufficient levels starting next year, and as a result, installation demand is expected to increase significantly
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Due to high material prices, we accelerated the pace of cost reduction with upgraded technology. At present, we have reduced the thickness of our mono wafers by nearly 15% compared to the beginning of the year, which saves on polysilicon. In terms of sales, the 7 GW high efficiency PERC capacity put into production in the Q2 finally reached full production capacity in the Q3, causing cell production costs in the Q3 to drop by more than 10% sequentially.
The company's large size module products accounted for nearly 50% in the Q3, a significant increase from less than 20% in the first half of the year. The global demand for solar remains strong, but installation costs are rising over a period of time. We are committed to providing customers with the best solutions based on technological innovation and product competitiveness.
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Modules are power generation products with a life cycle of 20-25 years, and product performance is crucial. Recently, our high efficiency N-type monocrystalline silicon solar cell reached a maximum conversion efficiency of 25.4%, setting a world record yet again. Based on our continuous leading R&D capabilities and two years mass production experience, we are quickly expanding N-type cell production capacity. We are preparing for approximately 16 GW of N-type cell production capacity to be operational in the Q1 of 2022, contributing about 10 GW output for the full year. This will help make up for the lack of cell production capacity and hopefully will lead the industry into the era of more premium and high efficient N-type products. Recently, we launched a new series of N-type modules with maximum power output of 620 W.
Next year, we are planning to increase our global market share by enhancing our sales and promotions of N-type products and achieve at least 50% growth in annual shipments.
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We continue to improve our global supply chain infrastructure. So far, we have signed polysilicon supply agreements with a number of overseas polysilicon manufacturers and have strategically invested in Tongwei, Sichuan Yongxiang and the Inner Mongolia Xinte High-Purity Polysilicon Production Project. Our 7GW monocrystalline silicon wafer plant in Vietnam will commence production in the Q1 of next year. After that, we will have approximately 7 GW of integrated mono wafer cell module manufacturing capacity overseas. A sound and diversified global industrial chain infrastructure will enable us to be more flexible in terms of order production and customer delivery as we continue to provide integrated services for our global customers.
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Before turning over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the Q4 of 2021. We expect total shipments to be in the range of 7.3-8.8 GW, including module shipments to be in the range of 7-8.5 GW for the Q4 of 2021. Total revenue for the Q4 is expected to be in the range of $1.8 billion-$2.2 billion. Gross margin for the Q4 is expected to be in the range of 13%-16%. The annual mono wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity is expected to reach 32.5 GW, 24 GW and 45GW , respectively by the end of 2021, with impact from less shipments to the U.S. market.
The global logistics situation, we are lowering the guidance for our full-year 2021 shipments, including wafers, cells, and modules to be in the range of 22.8 GW-24.3 GW.
Thank you, Ms. Ni. Total shipments in the Q3 were 5 GW, with module shipment increasing 18% sequentially to 4.7 GW. In terms of module shipments by region, Europe and Asia-Pacific were the main contributors. Driven by China's combined goal of 30/60 and efficient energy transition, shipments to Chinese market doubled sequentially. Shipments to emerging markets increased significantly both year-over-year and sequentially, a sign that markets are benefiting from policy support. The People's Bank of China recently launched a carbon emission reduction support tool. As large scale and distributed projects start construction, next year's total pipeline in Chinese market is expected to exceed 100 GW. Looking forward to 2022, market demand in China, U.S., India, Europe and Australia will continue its upward trajectory.
Module prices remain high, which has accelerated the penetration of products with lower LCOE and the penetration of the distributed generation business, which is less price sensitive. Our distributed business accounted for approximately 35%-40% in the Q3 and over 50% in some markets such as Australia, Japan and Brazil. Clients have been favorable towards our premium quality products such as Tiger Pro and a 182mm product, which were specifically designed for residential C&I distributed generation facilities. Meanwhile, our global brand awareness and global marketing team strengthened market competitiveness for our BIPV products. We have recently won the bid for the new Dubai Electricity and Water Authority's headquarters building projects, which will become the world's largest and tallest single building equipped with BIPV system.
The BIPV system used advanced N-type cell technology and modules with a transparency range between 3% and 16%, and can provide a power output of 500-708 W. As one of the directions of our core developments, the proportion of shipments in the distributed generation market will further increase next year. Shipments of Tiger Pro products that can bring lower LCOE accounted for nearly 50% in the Q3 and are expected to exceed 70% in the Q4. In 2022, we will optimize and match the capacity advantage of Tiger Pro and Tiger Neo products, solidifying our leading position in high efficiency products.
In terms of contract performance and pricing, in the face of uncontrollable factors such as the severe volatility in upstream raw material prices, energy quota and carbon emission control, we have established a market forecast and short-term dynamic review mechanism. For newly signed orders, we are securing materials in advance and introducing a floating price clause in contracts in order to avoid negative impact of our market volatility to some extent. In short, we are very optimistic about the market demand. Short-term problems such as raw material supply, logistics, et cetera, are gradually being solved through remarkable efforts. We focus on winning the market with the best products and services. With that, I will turn it over to Pat.
Thank you, Gener. Let me go into more details about this quarter now. Total revenue was CNY 1.33 billion, an increase of 8.1% sequentially, mainly benefiting from substantial growth in module shipments. Gross margin was 16.1% compared with 17.1% in the Q2 this year. Total operating expenses in the Q3 was CNY 184 million, an increase of 18.2% sequentially. The sequential increase was mainly attributed to an increase in selling and marketing expenses due to rising shipping costs under a tight global logistics market. We remained flexible and have adjusted both domestic and overseas shipments, mitigating the negative impact on profitability from volatile shipping costs by establishing long-term shipping agreements with logistics companies. Total operating expenses accounted for 13.8% of total revenues in the Q3 this year.
Excluding impacts from shipping costs, the ratio of operating expenses was stable compared with the Q2 this year. EBITDA was $89 million, compared with $143 million in the Q2 of 2021. Taking into consideration the significant increase in benefits from change of fair value due to an increase in the company's stock price in the Q3 this year, net income was $30.1 million, a significant increase both sequentially and year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income was $2.5 million, and diluted earnings per ADS was $0.05. Net foreign exchange loss, including change in fair value of foreign exchange derivative, was approximately $1 million, a significant decrease from a net exchange loss of $9.4 million in the Q3 of last year, and flat sequentially.
We will continue to optimize our hedging against foreign exchange risk to reduce the impact of foreign exchange volatility on our operating results. Moving to the balance sheet. At the end of the Q3, our balance of cash and cash equivalents was CNY 1.1 billion, which improved from the Q2. Accounts receivable due from third parties was flat sequentially, and AR turnover days were 65 days compared with 62 days in the Q2 this year. As shipments to the U.S. and global transportation routes were hampered by disruptions, inventory turnover days was 171 days compared with 138 days in the Q2 of 2021. Total debt was CNY 3.69 billion at the end of this, the Q3, compared to CNY 3.12 billion at the end of the Q2 this year.
Out of the total debt, CNY 68 million was related to international solar projects. Net debt was CNY 2.5 billion, compared with CNY 2.1 billion at the end of the Q2 this year. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.
First, we have Philip from Roth Capital Partners. Your question, please.
Hi, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on your Vietnamese wafer capacity that you're bringing online. 7 GW by Q1, and with that, you'll use German poly, I believe. When would you expect shipment volumes or shipments to hit the U.S. that are using, you know, either German poly or perhaps even U.S. poly, and then the Vietnamese wafers and then Southeast Asia cell and module? Could we see the volumes to the U.S. start to restart in Q2? How many gigawatts do you expect to ship into the U.S. in 2022 as a result of this new supply chain? Thanks.
Thank you, Philip. A great question. I think we have made a very strategic move to establish our Vietnamese wafer factory together to secure a long-term contract with multiple, let's say, non-China polysilicon suppliers. Based on the current schedules, we will start to ramp up our Vietnam wafer factories by early Q1, let's say, January, February. We are expecting a full value chain established outside China will start to fully utilize that by end of Q1. Ideally, the products start to arrive in U.S. market by late first half, let's say May or June. Massive volume will be definitely in second half. Total volume-wise, we are looking to around production numbers.
We're looking at around 5 GW of production. Considering the uncertainty of logistics, we are not 100% sure how many of them will arrive at the U.S.
Great. Thank you, Jennifer, for the detail. When you think about the anti-circumvention risk, you know, we saw the current case go away. I think the petitioners through their law firm and Tim Brightbill were talking about, you know, potential other cases. Do you have a view on what those cases could be and how they could impact this capacity? Or, yeah, what's your view in general about that? Thanks.
Thank you. I think this, let's call it, trade wars, won't stop. That's our long-term view. That's why we have made the decision to establish a fully vertically integrated value chain for capacities in both Vietnam, Malaysia, including U.S. That should be our ultimate solution to solve all those potential trade issues. At least that's the best solution we have right now. In long term, really, we don't have a crystal ball to see it. We are expecting, you know, the solution Jinko can bring to the market should be one of the most reliable ones.
Right. Okay. All right. Thank you. Another one here on the Section 201. We recently saw a surprise exemption reinstated for bifacial modules in the U.S., which means, I think, the modules can come in tariff-free. Also there might be substantial refunds for modules that have been already shipped in. I was wondering if you might be able to quantify what the Section 201 refunds could be, the timing of it. Have you received any thus far, for example? You know, if this decision gets reversed yet again, you know, what would the process be to perhaps return that money to the U.S. government? Have you thought through the longer-term picture for the Section 201 bifacial situation? Thanks.
Thank you, Phil. I think from the cash flow-wise, we are not expecting to receive any refund in any short term. We have read your report about the uncertainty of this potential appeal from the government side. We believe that's highly possible, and that's why we still put a question mark there. We do not expect you know, such kind of lawsuit will reach an end pretty soon. If we can get some potential refunds, that definitely will be very positive for the company. But we have to wait for quite a while to see the final results. We will wait and see. We haven't planned it in our cash flow yet.
Okay. Thank you. One last one, I'll pass it on. As it relates to margin, you gave us, I think some capacity numbers for 2022. Maybe can you talk about how you see margins trending in 2022, especially if, you know, the assumptions that you make now kind of persist. Do you think margin expansion is potentially available, especially with flexible pricing based on input costs, as we get through 2022? Thanks.
This is Charlie. Looking to next year, 2022, I think we are more confident the margin will be, you know, improved year-over-year. This year is very special and a challenge, particularly, you know, the supply chain shortage and high input costs, including the, let's say, the logistics issues as well. Looking to next year, we think the supply chain will get more friendly and compared to this year. On top of that, we will, you know, increase our production, you know, integration level, and we are expanding the N-type, you know, the cell capacities.
Next year, we roughly estimate the capacity will reach to a wafer 40 GW, cell 40 GW, and module 50 GW, roughly 80% integration level. We are expecting, you know, we can get more, let's say, net income contributions from the N-type. Because we are more confident and we have the advantage of this next generation technology in terms of the, let's say, production level and the cost advantage, which is the product is very, you know, popular in the market, and we can get the price premium.
Great. Okay. Thank you, Charlie, Gener, and Mr. Li. I'll pass it on.
Thank you, Philip. Next we have Gary from Credit Suisse. Your question, please.
Thank the management for taking my questions. I have so my first question is can management elaborate a little bit more on our upcoming the N-type cell capacity? I think we are relatively kind of early in terms of the relatively large scale kind of N-type capacity. Can management maybe share with us more on your expected cost competitiveness of this new capacity, and how do we think of the two technology trends, the TOPCon and HJT? Thank you.
Hey, Gary, this is Charlie. You know, we are investing 16 GW N-type TOPCon capacities. We have two years experience in running roughly 900 MW capacities in our factories. Now, you know, the production, let's say, metrics and the cost advantage versus the PERC, you know, we are leading the industry. For next year when we ramp up, we expect to ramp up the capacity in the Q1, and I think in full operations roughly in the Q2. In terms of the integrated production cost for the N-type versus the PERC, for the medium term, we expect the cost will.
You know, the difference versus the PERC is very small, even the same.
More important, you know, if we look at the conversion efficiencies, the N-type with this, as well as the, you know, additional electricity generations to our customers. We believe with a very good leading market product, and we can get the, you know, the price premium and get more profit contributions for this product.
Yeah, okay. Thank you. My second question is on the module shipment. So I think some of our peers are relatively cautious on the full Q kind of demand. But I think our guidance still suggest a meaningful kind of a Q on Q shipment increase. So just to wonder if Maxin can share more on the how we can achieve this kind of still very strong Q increase.
Thank you for the question, Gary. This is Gener Miao. I think quarter-over-quarter, we have a pretty strong Q4 shipment expectations. Mainly, it's driven by combined demand from China and the non-China market. I think after the relatively weak quarterly shipment in the first three quarters of 2021, I think most of our customers are, let's say, non-Chinese market customers are gradually accepting the market balance of this new prices. They are trying to, you know, take the time try to close the project or close their pipeline. For China demand, everybody knows, you know, there are quite a strong demand in China in the last two months' time.
We successfully, you know, secure quite a significant volumes and to supply a pretty strategic projects across China market. Combine those two factors together, I think we can achieve a pretty strong shipment in Q4.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you very much. My last question is whether management can share with us the latest update of our subsidiary A-share listing.
For the IPO process, you know, for our subsidiaries, and we are, you know, on the track and to get the public, to get the IPO done. By end of September, we got approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Now we are in the process in the registrations with Chinese securities regulators. We expect to, roughly in the next one and two months, we can, you know, to get everything ready and to get the IPO done.
Okay. Yeah. That's all my questions. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Gary. All you participants with questions to pose, please press zero one on telephone keypad, and you'll be joined in the queue. Next, we have Rajiv from Sunsara Capital. Your question, please.
Yes. Good morning and good evening to you. My first question is about the potential shipments that were lost because of logistics issues in the Q3, and might be lost in the Q4 as well. Could you help us give us a sense of how much in terms of megawatts you might have lost in terms of shipments not happening because of logistics in Q3, and what that impact might be in Q4? Also, help us understand if this lost shipments is that a temporary timing thing where the shipments get pushed out into 2022 or this that market opportunity was is lost for forever?
Thank you. I think, let me take your first question. In terms of quantities of the delays, I think it's, we're looking at, let's say, 100 MW level of delays. I think the delay between Q3 and Q4 is not because we haven't shipped or we haven't produced a module, or it's customer doesn't want the module. It's because of the logistic delay. You know, there's lots of traffic jams across the ports, let's say Europe or U.S. So, you know, accounting-wise, we cannot recognize those modules until we deliver the module on into our customer site or in their warehouse. That's why we have to delay the revenue recognition, I think from, partially from Q3 to Q4 by approximately 100-200 MW, several, let's say several hundred megawatts.
It's the module itself has been produced, the contract is solid, and the price has been secured. We just need to wait until, you know, this logistics bottleneck being gradually solved, and we can recognize revenues in Q4.
Just to follow up on that, in terms of Q4, are you experiencing similar logistics issues or maybe even worse because of Q4 Christmas, all the competition you have from the rest of retail? Is the problem for the Q4 shipments even worse?
I don't think so. At least, Q4 will be slightly better than Q3. The reason is, the China market, domestic market demand is pretty strong. So we can diversify the risk, you know, not only rely on the shipping line companies. We can recognize more revenue in domestic market. So that's one of the positive side. And also, you know, after, you know, this port issues across the Europe or U.S., you know, the government side has taken many actions to push for the port itself to speed up the loading speed or unloading speed to make sure, you know, everything can goes faster. So we have seen this improvement from the logistics side as well.
Combine those two, we believe the situation will be much improved compared with Q3.
Okay. My next question is about the average selling prices. You mentioned that there was a small increase in the selling price, but obviously it did not offset the increases in material costs. Could you talk about to what extent your shipments in the Q3 were still subject to long-term contracts where you had to honor pricing that was negotiated some time back or close to pricing that was negotiated some time back versus modules that are shipping into prices that are you know currently available in the spot market?
Thank you. I think, from contract execution-wise, we have to find a mutual solution together with our customers. We, since it's a signed contract, we cannot expect our customers to swallow all this potential increase because of raw materials. We have to find mutual solutions together. There are quite several different kind of solutions we can reach agreement with customer end. I won't spend too much time to illustrate everything. At the end of the day, I think, over 75% of our contract delivered or executed in Q3 are, you know, old time heritage.
you know, we have to find lots of solutions, combined with short-term and long-term solution together with our customers to find a win-win solution for long run, because we are not doing business in spot market. We are doing business in power sector, which needs very long-term sustainabilities and the win-win solution with the customers for long term. There'll always be market up and down. We cannot just ruin the customer relationship because one-time issues.
Right. Can I just so I understand, you mentioned that, 75% of shipments were into long-term contracts, and these long-term contracts have been somewhat modified, to reflect the realities of the cost pressures. Can you give us a sense of what percent of going into 2022, you know, and learning from the experience of these higher prices that we are now having to live with, a higher cost of materials that we are having to live with, what percentage of shipments might be, you know, if you do 30-35 GW or 32-36 GW next year, what percentage would be long-term contracts that have already been signed?
Are there flexible or fixed contracts where pricing has not yet been determined?
We have approximately 25%-30% of order book being signed or committed to the customer end for 2022. Some of the contract is based on securing the price and terms. Some of the contract is just a framework contract, which means we keep the commercial part flexible up to the market. We also have some of the framework contract which has index-based pricing mechanism, which allows, you know, both our end and our customer ends to have a flexibility when the market goes up and down. Basically we have learned a lot of lessons from 2021, and we carried on and we established some new business model with our customer end for 2022 and longer term.
What you're saying is that the framework agreements will give you more flexibility on pricing if the cost of materials moves in or shipment cost moves in an unfavorable way. Is that also the reason why you are confident that the gross margin next year should improve because you are embedding a higher gross margin than was achieved in 2021?
Well, the growth margin will be a separate topic. I think the growth margin improvement mainly comes from a much improved vertical integrated capacity expansion by end of this year, so which will contribute a lot of margin improvement. Another important factor will be our new product, Tiger Neo product, will contribute a lot of premium because of the nice parameters and the extra power output such product can generate. The third one will be our portion of, we say large dimension products. For example, you know, our 182mm product portion increased from first half around 20%-25% to end of this year around 60%-70%, and to next year it might go even higher, so which give us a very good competitive edge.
I hope that answers your question.
Yes. Yes. Thank you. One last question for Charlie. Charlie, the general and administrative expenses have been much higher this year than last year in the first three quarters and first two quarters. They went up quite substantially in the Q3 as well. Can you give us some sense of why that increase is happening? And in particular, how much of this increase in costs is related directly to the IPO in China?
Thanks for your questions. I think, you know, the operating expense is relatively high. It's contributed by, I think firstly the shipping cost. The shipping cost is, you know, pretty high, and we have very high exposure to, you know, shipments out of China. Second one is the IPO cost. IPO cost, I don't believe it's very significant, roughly maybe $2 million for the Q3. On top of that, I think Q3, our shipment is not so big, you know, relatively. By the Q4 we have, you know, very big jump in our shipments, which will, you know, dilute the operating costs. Excluding the
I think excluding the variable costs, let's say, particularly the shipping costs, the warranty costs, and the fixed costs for operating expenses is fixed and relatively stable.
Actually, Charlie, I'm sorry, I missed something that you said about what amount the IPO costs were. The question that I'm trying to grapple with is, you know, the G&A, which normally should not increase that much. You know, last year it was running at around $50 million a quarter. This year it started at around $55 million-$60 million, and it was almost $70 million in the Q3. So that's a pretty substantial increase. Can you tell us what is driving this increase and what we should expect for Q4?
The G&A cost is, you know, an administrative cost. I think it should be stable. You know, looking to the future, it should be stable. It could. We have some, you know, IPO costs and we have some, I think, the quarter adjustment for the, let's say, the provisioning for the accounts receivable. Excluding that, I think it's relatively stable.
Okay. Thank you.
Welcome.
Thank you. All of you participants with questions to pose, please press zero one on telephone keypad and you'll be placed in the queue. Next we have Alan from Jefferies. Your question please.
Thanks a lot to the operator for having the questions and thanks a lot to management. My first question is, just to check, is this tied to the shipment in the sea to overseas market?
I think two aspects, and one is, you know, the inventory is in transit to overseas market and challenged by the logistics, you know, and the delay. The second one is we are expecting, you know, back to Q3, the material cost is still on the, you know, upside. We intentionally, you know, put more resources and get more materials to make sure we have relative advantage to for the productions in the Q4.
Understood. Thanks a lot. When it comes to the Q4, I've noticed that the company was guiding for 12%-15% gross margin over the last three quarters. The guidance has increased from 12%-15% to 13%-16%, while the upstream poly cost has increased a lot. First of all, I would like to learn from the management, is it because of the increase in percentage of large size module and cost-cutting efforts so that the company is confident to make a probably higher margin even when upstream poly cost is higher?
Yeah, it's a combination. One is, you know, you are talking about the large size percentage, and we know our capacity is really 7 GW. We talked in the press release. Second one is percentage and Q3, one, you know, the large size 182, roughly 50%, and the Q4 may reach to 70%. On top of that, you know, we are expecting our ASP, you know, will continue to increase. I think, particularly because we have shipments, more shipments in China, and China ASP is a small market, and the price is pretty high.
The Q4 versus the Q3 ASP, you know, has you know, it's roughly $0.01-$0.02 per watt.
Understood. Thanks a lot. It's a combination of these factors on the N-type new generation cells. I suspect the company is using the TOPCon technology and would wonder if it is able to disclose the yield rate of the production line. Because it was a concern on the yield rate because TOPCon has more production steps.
We are reaching for N-type TOPCon. We are reaching almost 99%. So I think that's a leading number in this industry. That's why we have our confidence to expand our capacity to such, you know, sizable volume to make, to extend our competitive advantage as well.
Understood. That's very impressive. I think it's one of the leading indicator in the market. Thanks a lot, management.
No problem.
Thank you, Alan. Next, we'll be taking one last question from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your question please.
Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for squeezing me in here. I might have missed this, or maybe I'm misinterpreting something, but could you help reconcile? I think you mentioned 100-200 MW kind of revenue recognition issue, Q3 to Q4, but the actual shipment guidance is changing by, you know, 2+ GW versus what you had previously. Is that being pushed even further into the early part of 2022, or what? What's the, I guess, the disconnect between the 100-200 MW you're calling out specifically Q3 to Q4 and the bigger kind of shipment guidance change that's happening here for the full year?
Yeah, sure. I think my previous answers is between just delays between revenue recognition delays from Q3 to Q4. It should be like, let's say somewhere around 200 MW level. The delay will continue, but I think the improvement is definitely be better than Q3 because we have seen this traffic jam across all the main ports is improving day over day, week over week. That's why I'm saying, you know, the shipment and together with, we are shipping more into China market in Q4, so that's why we don't have to suffer the logistic problems from the shipping line.
Those are the two factors why we say the revenue recognition in Q4, the pressure will be lighter or, you know, easier than Q3. Regarding the guidance change, I think it's mainly because we have some delays of one of our cell workshops. That give us a kind of ceiling for this capacity expansion. That's why we naturally, you know, adjusted our guidance accordingly.
Okay. That's helpful. Just to be clear, you haven't seen any cancellations of shipment schedules, whether for this year or into next year. Just things are changing on the schedule, but you haven't seen anything canceled outright?
We have seen pretty, let's say, several cases canceled by the shipping line companies, but we always can find some solutions because, you know, we have this multiyear shipping line contract with all the major shipping lines. So even if they cancel, you know, the shipments or the shipping lines this week or next week, we can always trying to find out a solution to squeeze them in for the next line in the, I don't know, next month or the month after, right?
Okay. Fair enough. Maybe just two last ones from me, and I'll pass it on. Are you reiterating your CapEx guidance for 2021? I think you had said $1.1 billion for, and then any early thoughts on capacity increase and CapEx for 2022?
Yeah. Thank you. This is Pan. For the CapEx side, we expect that in Q4, we'll have a CNY 400 million expectation. So the total CapEx in this year will be CNY 1.2 billion, and the next year will remain the same, CNY 1.2 billion for 2022.
Okay. Flat CapEx year-over-year. Any thoughts around the funding for $1.2 billion of CapEx in 2022?
No, we are, you know, our subsidiary is in the China IPO process, and we're expecting to raise at least RMB 6 billion. That is the most, you know, the most reliable, you know, the majority of parts. Upon that, we will make it some, you know, debt financing as well.
Okay. Understood. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on. Appreciate the time.
Thank you, Brian. I will now hand the session back to you. Please go ahead, Ms. Ripple.
Sure.
Ms. Ripple.
Yes.
Please go ahead
Hello. Yes, let's end the call today. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.