Hello, all, and a warm welcome to KBR, Inc.'s Investor Call to discuss the HomeSafe Alliance Award. My name is Lydia, and I'll be your operator today. If you'd like to ask a question at the end of the presentation, you may do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. We kindly ask that you register one question and one follow-up only. It's my pleasure to now hand you over to our host, Alison Vasquez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Thank you, Lydia. Good morning, and thank you for attending our conference call today. Joining me are Stuart Bradie, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Sopp, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Byron Bright, President of Government Solutions. Today, we will provide an overview of the recent award of the Global Household Goods Contract to HomeSafe Alliance, a KBR joint venture, and its impact on our 2025 targets. We'll open the call for your questions. Today's presentation is available on the investor section of our website at kbr.com.
This discussion includes forward-looking statements reflecting KBR's views about future events and their potential impact on performance as outlined on slide two. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ significantly from these forward-looking statements, as discussed in our most recent Form 10-K, also available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Stuart.
Thank you, Alison. Thank you once again for joining us. Today we're going to present the HomeSafe Alliance. It's a disruptive solution to an industry that historically has been very fragmented, had been very inefficient, and that's inefficiency in cost, quality, accountability, and carbon footprint. It's kinda resulted in very subpar results for our service men and women and, of course, their families. Before I go there, I wanted to address the continued conflict in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis across Europe. We denounce Russia's aggression and hope for an immediate end to the suffering of the innocent people of Ukraine. To this end, we have made the decision to wind down our commercial activities in Russia.
We're working to do this, of course, safely and most humanely and in the most orderly way possible with the care for the safety of our colleagues and their families. These are complex issues, we take them very seriously, and of course, we will share an update when we report our first quarter earnings next month. Now back to HomeSafe Alliance, and I'll start on slide three. In the slides that follow, we will present more detail on the program itself. At a strategic level, I want to be clear, this is bang on strategy.
Disruption through the deployment of an end-to-end digital solution gives USTRANSCOM a single common operating picture for this program for the first time ever. On the front end, this is essentially a user-friendly app that tracks shipments, links to insurance, holds key data, etc. Like Uber for moving, if you will. On the back end, the digital solution will capture and plan move activity to drive efficiency. Think two trucks half full doing the same sort of journey will be replaced by one truck into the future. AI and machine learning will also be deployed to capture performance data. As this relates to the supply chain, it will obviously improve delivery and optimize the supply chain, the warehousing hub performance and efficiencies, etc.
This is like supply chain as a service on steroids. To be clear, HomeSafe will not own trucks or containers, etc. So it's a very low capital-intensive program, and again, bang on strategy and in line with our our sort of business models. The reduction of the carbon footprint will increase over time, again, firmly aligned with our ESG strategy to bring sustainable solutions to our clients, and in this case, the DoD. Finally, the strategic alignment with shareholder value is clear. This is a long-term, enduring program that's highly accretive and highly cash generative. This was a best value win. We were not the low bidder, demonstrating the totality of qualifications, capability, and the value proposition that this team can deliver.
In totality, this program aligns well with our resilient, low-risk business model. The program profile is shown on the right. The client, USTRANSCOM, was very thoughtful in planning the transition of this program and has built in a measured, steady ramp-up of operational activities through to 2024. In 2022, we've already begun aligning interfaces with the government, scaling the systems and technology, engaging the supply chain, et cetera. HomeSafe has begun receiving authorized funding for this part of the program. This isn't really material from a P&L perspective in 2022, but as we head into 2023, we will see the start-up of the domestic moves scaling up progressively during the year, and then beginning in late 2023, we will commence the international move.
A very nice, considered risk mitigation in terms of that ramp up. Now, this is a performance-based contract, meaning as we leverage scale and technology in the supply chain, the efficiencies we drive lead to enhanced profitability for HomeSafe. We have worked to mitigate some risks that are out of our control. For example, we have negotiated economic price adjustments that limit inflation risk, and we have price protection for fuel, very topical. It is effectively a pass-through for the duration of the contract. Moving to success factors. First and foremost, we have very clear alignment with our client to improve the relocation experience for military and civilian DoD families.
KBR has always stood out in our affinity with military and defense personnel, and this is amplified here. To do this, we will leverage commercially available technology and our experience in delivering complex program integrations, supply chain as a service at scale. We are committed to delivering strong customer service to our military and defense families. Importantly, via this, that supply chain, it is essential we bring together industry leaders, but also a significant number of existing small businesses into a streamlined solution, and more on this in a moment. Onto slide four. Here are some high-level statistics just to give you a feel for the scale. The contract has a ceiling value of $20 billion. With base and option periods, this runs for nine and a half years. Think 2031. HomeSafe will become the single provider for circa 325,000-331,000.
HomeSafe will become the single provider for circa 325,000 family relocations every year, many of which happen actually over the spring and summer months. I touched on digital modernization and technology already, but this will be a secure cloud-based solution with video-assisted move support, digital inventories, and an array of modern features. Onto slide five. HomeSafe Alliance is a joint venture, but it is bigger than a JV. It's an alliance. It's a world-class team with the right skills, capabilities, experience, and of course, people. KBR holds 72% of the joint venture, and Tier 1, 28%. You know the attributes that KBR brings to the joint venture, so I won't go over these again. Tier 1 is an outstanding value-add partner. They really, really know this business and currently do about 20% of the DoD personal moves today.
Which means, of course, that they really understand the human component, the cost base, the nuances of the supply chain in this industry, et cetera. MoveHQ brings its commercially proven relocation technology, the customer-facing app, and secure cloud-based solution, which again, was a key differentiator in our bid. Our team, however, would not be complete without the network of premier relocation players. SIRVA, the operator of North American and Allied Van Lines, Wheaton World Wide Moving, Gosselin Group, and they provide a lot of the international moves, and they do that today. So again, a proven entity.
JK Moving Services, and of course, an array of small businesses, collectively representing decades and decades of moving experience. I believe this is a world-class team, and we've gotten to know each other really well over the last three years. We had three years of bidding this through the procurement process. We're aligned, we're committed, and we're excited to get going to modernize and improve the relocation experience for our military families. Now I'll hand over to Mark, who will present how this positively impacts KBR's financial targets. Mark.
Awesome. Thank you, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. I'll pick up on slide six. You'll recall we provided 2021 - 2025 long-term targets as part of our Future Forward Investor Day event in March of last year. Just a few weeks ago, we announced our 2021 results, and those results were on or above the pace of those targets. Our outlook remains bullish in both of our operating businesses. In fact, we would say the long-term end market conditions are more favorable today than a year ago, and we covered this landscape in our recent earnings call last month. While it's still early days, we don't believe the appalling events in Ukraine materially change this. Accordingly, the previous long-term targets for the core KBR business areas may materially change this.
Accordingly, the previous long-term targets for the core KBR business areas before considering the effects of the new HomeSafe program are affirmed. This large new HomeSafe program adds another fresh layer of expected growth and cash flow on top. We have also reflected the addition of Frazer-Nash in today's updated targets, which we acquired this past fall. You see the results of our update here with our 2025 targets for expected revenue, earnings, and cash flow all significantly boosted over our original targets. This also drives a big boost to our capital deployment capacity, which of course enhances value creation opportunity. On to slide seven. We are increasing the 2025 revenue and value creation opportunity.
We are increasing the 2025 revenue target to $9.5 billion from $8 billion to reflect our proportionate share of 72% of the estimated HomeSafe revenues, plus the Frazer-Nash addition as well. For HomeSafe, we believe we will be at full run rate by 2025, and as you probably expect, we have taken a conservative view on the volume and financial contribution until we gain more experience in the alliance. For Frazer-Nash, we have maintained a healthy growth outlook and strong margins we outlined when we acquired them. Together, the KBR top line revenue compounded annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025 increases to 12%-14% compared to the original 6%-9% target set last year. 12%-14% top line growth.
As was covered earlier, the HomeSafe ramp-up is slated to occur for the domestic scope in 2023 and the international scope beginning late that same year. Since various factors will affect the pace and underlying volume, we will guide the 2023 and 2024 ramp trajectory as we guide the rest of the company at the beginning of those respective fiscal years. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA target by $125 million - $925 million. That's a 15% increase over the original Future Forward target set last year. We are holding expected consolidated EBITDA margins at 10% in 2025. For HomeSafe, we are taking a more conservative position, as I just mentioned a moment ago, on the profit contribution in the early years.
As Stuart mentioned, there's opportunity to improve this over time given the performance-based structure of the contract. On earnings per share and free cash flow per share, our previous target was $4 per share by 2025, which included the assumption of 100% conversion of income to free cash flow and deployment of half of our deployable capital. With HomeSafe, we project to be at $4 per share by 2025 with the same cash flow conversion, but with zero capital deployments. At $4.75 using the same 50% deployment model. Up $0.75 there. That's a significant shift up, of course. As a reminder, deployable capital is the cash available starting with free cash flow, then deducting dividends, then adding incremental borrowings commensurate with our targeted leverage ratio of 3.0. No change there.
Cash flow on HomeSafe is expected to be very strong with lower DSOs than the overall Government Solutions business today. Billing on the program will be done daily as moves are completed. Cash flow should be 1:1 with earnings, and together with the additional leverage on the new layer of EBITDA, we are also increasing our deployable capital target up 17% to $3.5 billion, up from $3 billion originally, based on the same targeted leverage ratio of 3.0, repeating that. Again, this is a lot of capital to drive additional value creation opportunities. We expect to deploy capital in a combination of M&A, buybacks, and dividends that are commensurate with our earnings and cash flow profile.
We will obviously seek to maximize EPS and free cash flow per share with this enhanced firepower based on the opportunities that we see over this time horizon. The return on invested capital target remains 14%-16%, and with HomeSafe, we are trending toward the top end of that range. There is improvement there. Bravo to our team for such an effective use of capital, catalyzing this magnitude of organic growth and these types of returns. Finally, I'll finish with a few words on the protest and appeal process. The GAO protest denial on March 3 was a strong affirmation of the quality of the procurement process conducted by DoD USTRANSCOM. Also, since the GAO decision, we have been actively engaged with a hugely supportive customer.
They have lifted the stop work order, and we are off and running with the transition activities for the program at this time. However, there does remain an avenue for the non-prevailing parties to appeal the GAO decision in the United States Court of Federal Claims, and we should have clarity around this fairly soon. As we've seen times before, such action would not necessarily preclude the customer from continuing to move forward with the transition fully and giving HomeSafe the green light to operate the program. Even if there are delays that push the program out, say, six-nine months, the 2025 targets wouldn't change.
As said, we're fully engaged with the client and are hopeful that HomeSafe will continue the momentum to deliver a modern digital move experience for our servicemen and women and their families. In summary, we're adding $1.5 billion of revenue and $125 million of EBITDA to our 2025 targets. We're increasing adjusted EPS up by almost 20%, and we're increasing deployable capital by half a billion dollars. Now, that sure is a heck of a win. I'll turn it back to Stuart.
Thanks, Mark. On to our final slide today and to summarize. I mean, HomeSafe Alliance, as Mark said, is an unbelievable win. It will transform this industry by modernizing and digitalizing the relocation platform to enhance the relocation experience for military families. It's bang on strategy for KBR. Think digital technology deployment at scale, global supply chain as a service, and reducing carbon emissions. All bang on. Importantly, this is funded from the U.S. DoD personnel budget, which actually further diversifies our funding sources. This is a long-term performance-based contract with a commercial profile. Efficiency gains and improved performance should enhance returns over time. Our targets, of course, today go out to 2025, and until we're fully up and running, one could argue they are on the conservative side.
I'm sure you wouldn't expect anything different, and rightfully so. However, post-2025, I suspect there may be uplift opportunities and margin pressure upwards. As Mark presented, HomeSafe is highly accretive to KBR. Think sustained enduring earnings and cash flow equivalent to a circa $1 billion-plus acquisition, but we've got there organically. We've won it organically. HomeSafe is a fantastic win that accelerates medium- and long-term growth far, far above industry norms with attractive profit, cash and of course, ROIC. This just further differentiates KBR. Our long-term book of business was and is now very, very significant.
This really helps manage volatility, underpins our growth aspirations, and delivers cash to deploy to expand shareholder value. With that, I will close. I want to thank you again for attending today, and I'll now turn the call back over to Lydia for Q&A. Just to remind everyone, we've also got Byron on the call to answer all your difficult questions. Lydia.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind or your question has been answered, please press star followed by two. Please ensure to ask one question and one follow-up only. Our first question today comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Jerry, your line is open.
Yes, hi, good morning, everyone, and congratulations.
Thanks. Thanks, Jerry. Good morning.
I'm wondering if you could talk about to what extent this win expands the scope of what you could bid on going forward, you know, as you lay out the white space of opportunities from here, proving out the capabilities on this project, what kind of optionality does that give you for future opportunities?
I mean, I think, Jerry, that's a question you should probably ask us in a little while once we're up and running. I think our concentration will be very much focused on getting the program humming and delivering the value we think it can deliver both to the families and of course to our shareholders. I mean, the logic would dictate that if you can do this in that environment, there will be opportunities outside the DoD to do this. There will also be international opportunities to deploy the platform.
I think that's getting ahead of ourselves. I think, and you know, ultimately, if you've got the growth that we've laid out here in terms of CAGRs through 2025 across all the metrics, I think that's very, very exciting in its own right there will be opportunities, but I wanna focus in on getting this right first.
You alluded to providing more context on the ramp. You know, I think the original program envisioned a really significant ramp in 2023. I'm wondering if you can comment if that still holds. You know, we don't have to get into full detail on the exact revenue burn expectations, but I'm wondering if that part of the operating plan still holds given the protests, et cetera.
Byron, why don't you answer that?
Yeah. Thank you, Stuart. Thank you, Jerry. First let me just say, we're just really excited about this win. It's just another example of what, you know, KBR does really well, and we have a great set of partners in our joint venture and just looking forward to making a difference to our war fighters. Yeah, Jerry, it's always been a very considered ramp up. I think the client was quite smart. They knew that this was a change for the industry and there's a nine-month transition period where we really focus on, you know, integrating the technology, engaging that supply chain, and really setting up for success with us and the customer.
That goes through kind of the end of this year, and then we would expect the domestic moves to ramp up, you know, really, potentially, you know, very, very late Q4 this year, but really into next year. It's a very considered ramp up. This industry has a seasonality to it, so there's, you know, more moves in the summertime, and they wanna make sure they get through 2023's peak season. Then at the end of peak season next year, there'd be a nice, considered ramp up starting late 2023 and moving into 2024 for the taking on the international moves so a very nice steady ramp up over a pretty good 18-24 month time period.
Terrific. Congratulations. Thanks.
Thank you.
Our next question today comes from Steven Fisher of UBS. Steven, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks very much, and congratulations again. I wonder if you could just clarify the new EPS assumptions. I think in the previous version you had a range of $4-$6 a share, and now it seems to be $4 a share. And on the last conference call, you were talking about being at the upper end of the growth range. I think the expectation was that you were gonna be sort of tracking to the $6 without HomeSafe, and now it seems like we're talking about $4.75. Can you just reconcile some of the pieces that we're missing there, please?
Mark, why don't you start, and I'll finish.
Sure. Well, thanks for the question, Steve. Very important to stand back and look. We were at $4 as the starting point of the range last time. That included considerable deployment, and we are at $4 today with this win without any deployment, so that's a material shift up, as I said in my remarks. There's a lot of capital there to deploy. Apples to apples, like for like, the $4 before with deployment, it translates to $4.75 with the same model today. So again, a big bump up there using that assumption, which was a buyback assumption, as you'll recall. That's a 20% increase on that $4 number to $4.75.
I wanted to start with that because the core performance of the business before considering, you know, the vagaries of deployments is way up from this opportunity. With that comes quite a bit of, you know, certainty as to core financial performance. Above that, you know, it's difficult to predict. There's a huge opportunity with $3.5 billion of deployable capital, and we really don't wanna limit ourselves. What we do with that amount of capital will depend on the market conditions, the interest rates, our share performance of course.
We don't wanna set any bounds at that at this time because it's so much capital at play for such a long period of time. I think we've got a great track record for meeting and beating expectations in everything we do, and we have a great track record for delivering value creation, and that's what we intend to do here. We're just gonna stick to seeking maximum production out of that firepower as we target to go as high as we can.
Okay. That makes sense, but I guess I'm just wondering. Did we misinterpret the message from the last call that you were tracking at the upper end of the range, you know, before HomeSafe, and so that HomeSafe should have been just additive on top of the upper end of the range?
Our performance out of the gate in 2021 was clearly ahead of pace, and we stick to that, and our outlook remains as good or better longer term. The underlying business is on or above pace as we said before, and HomeSafe is clearly a nice layer on top of that.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question today comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead, Jamie.
Hi, good morning, and congratulations. I guess, you know, my first question just follow up to Steve, just to be clear, you know, Mark, should we assume for 2025, $4.75 is sort of the base of earnings? Is that at least what you can do? There is potential to get towards sort of the higher end. You know, my second question, it sounds like there's opportunities for this contract to be more creative based on, you know, performance. Is there any way you could frame that for us? Then my last question, just sorry, I know you mentioned sort of Russia in your prepared remarks. Can you just frame for us, you know, what your exposure is there? Is there any cost of exiting the business? Thank you.
Maybe I'll start with your last piece and then Mark and Byron can maybe jump in on the HomeSafe piece itself, Jamie. To put it in as a frame of reference, I think our STS business is what's doing obviously some work in Russia. In 2021, it generated about $75 million of revenue. You know, that's really in two areas. We've got a long-term industrial maintenance contract there supporting a U.S. company, and that's been there since well before I joined KBR. We employ about 500 Russian personnel there. You know, that's why I made the remarks that as we exit, we want to make sure we do the right thing by them.
They're long-term KBR employees, and we've got a duty of care to manage that exit in the most humane way possible. I mean, the annual returns for that part of the business are not very material. But we'll obviously evaluate how best to wind that down. We'll have more color coming into the quarter. We've also got, you know, a handful of technology, a small number of technology projects in Russia, primarily actually for European clients who've invested there. While these are not all subject to sanction, there's obviously issues around payments and things like that that we have to again, work through. Complex issues, as I say, a $75 million exposure in 2021.
Obviously we're evaluating our risks, et cetera. We'll try and give you more color as we head to the end of the quarter. These are extraordinary events and, you know, whatever numbers we identify, we'll likely adjust out. As you can tell by the quantums here, it's, you know, it's not, or it's concerning but not overly concerning as you could understand.
Good. Jamie, back to your earlier parts of the question. I would consider the $475 a floor, in the sense that four was a floor last time. That's a fair way to look at it. Bear in mind, that's in year one of full HomeSafe activity, and we said we would take very, you know, conservative margins out of the gate there. We clearly will be targeting to improve that over time. That improvement of HomeSafe itself, as well as the rest of the business running, you know, hot relative to our original year-ago assumptions, plus $3.5 billion of deployable capital really means quite a bit of upside beyond that $475 floor.
We just didn't want to put a cap around that as we did last time, given the abundance of opportunities we have and the strength of the business performance we are seeing. We leave the upside to for everyone to take their view on because it'll depend on a variety of paths we may take, but they're all great paths to have as options.
Hey Mark, this is Byron. If I could just add in just on the margin opportunity. You know, we take a you know, we don't disclose individual program margins, but we've taken a pretty conservative position on this. You know, it is a new client with a new service model. But definitely in this industry, I mean, part of the rationale for TransCom going to a single move manager was to help get the inefficiencies out of the supply chain. We believe there's opportunities over time, but we wanna make sure we start this on the right foot, that we're delivering quality first to the war fighter, and we'll focus on that customer service area first.
Over time, I know I personally believe there will be lots of various opportunities to improve margin, both through, you know, adding additional technologies, additional data analytics on the supply chain, where efficiencies can be gained. Just in basic operations on how you consolidate loads and lots of different opportunities for margin improvement over the longer term.
Yeah. It's tricky, Jamie, to frame that and put a number on it. I think you can see there's gonna be upward pressure on margins due to efficiency gains over time. One other piece I just wanted to make clear to those on the call is that in terms of what's happening in Russia and how we deal with that as we come to the end of the quarter, I mean, we do not expect a negative change to our full year adjusted EPS guidance for, I guess, lost business opportunities in Russia. As we look out. I wanted just to make sure that was clear in the commentary.
Thank you. I appreciate the call.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, it's star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Sean Eastman of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey, team, can you hear me?
We can.
Yes.
Hey, guys. This is Slade on for Sean today. Just a couple quick questions for you. One, how much of HomeSafe's revenue will be booked into backlog, and what quarter should we expect it to hit?
I think that's a really good question, and I think we're working through the mechanics of that. I mean, the work that's released just now really relates obviously to the transition piece we mentioned through 2022. As we look into 2023, I think our view is that we would try and do this if we could. We don't know yet how doable this is given how we book backlog, but we would try and book it in at the beginning of the year for the year in advance. It becomes an annual sort of booking rather than booking, you know, $20 billion in one hit, because I think we've got to ramp up the program and understand that cadence.
You know, I think these are all the little moves are little contracts in their own selves. I think we'd want to do it in a very measured way and just understand the performances we book the next year and the seasonality, as Byron mentioned, is plays into that as well. That's the current thinking. Don't expect a $20 billion booking, if you like, you know, going into the end of this year. It. Any more on that, Mark? I think we're. It's still. That's kind of our thinking, but we haven't concluded that yet, just as we're working through it.
No, I think it's well covered, Stuart. You know, we do have to assess the volumes, and those can change a little bit, you know, year to year. I think that gives us a good baseline to measure what the expected near-term volume is and annualize the bookings based on that latest view coming into each year. That's what we would certainly like to see.
Okay. Awesome. That's super helpful. Just a second question as we look out to 2023.
Byron, you're probably as good as anyone to answer that one.
Yeah, absolutely. Thank you. You know, we've actually had a couple of good years, both 2021, 2022, and even really going into 2023. Moving into kind of late 2023, 2024, and 2025, there's a couple that are coming up in our NASA business. So looking at our Human Health and Performance Contract, looking at our Integrated Mission Operations Contract, those are all a couple of years apart, starting in that 2023 time frame through 2025. You know, each one of those contracts are circa $100 million a year. So in the size of our portfolio today, we still don't have any single, you know, big risk contract. You know, there's no concentration risk there. I think you'll get kind of back to more normal recompete levels, you know, going into 2024 is what I would say.
Okay, awesome. Congrats on the award. Thanks again.
Thank you.
Thanks, Slade.
Tobey Sommer of Truist Securities. Please go ahead, Tobey.
Thank you. I just had a question sort of about the budget and so forth. If we do get a budget and as a result of the war in the Ukraine, potentially a budget more easily in the following fiscal year, are those kind of contextual and, you know, very primary environmental factors incorporated in this 2025 outlook? Or would a kind of an overall better spending environment by your principal customers drive a change to that?
I think obviously if there's an uptempo in spending, Tobey, probably we could do a bit better is the way I would describe it. I mean, we set the 2021 targets in a very different budget regime than we are today, obviously, with the horrible events in Ukraine, obviously not even in anyone's mind in 2021. Here we are today. I think if those budgets went up, you would think activity levels would increase accordingly. I think we're well positioned in those markets where the spending is gonna increase the most, and will get the most attention. As a consequence of that, yes, you could say that.
I think the targets we're putting out there today for 2025, I mean, if you look at the CAGRs, I mean, you know, there's not many of our peers who will be able to put CAGRs out that we're putting out, and it's underpinned by real work that we've won. You know, it's not, you know, we don't have to do, you know, M&A and things to get there. It's, you know, I think standing behind the target today is exactly the right message. Could you see a path to doing a bit better? Of course you could.
Thank you. I know there was a question on recompetes in also 2025. I didn't quite catch. What's the cadence of recompetes this year and next, and how does that cadence compare to what might be considered normal? Thank you.
I mean, the level of recompetes. [crosstalk] In 2022 is very low. Byron, sorry. Go on. Since you answered, you can continue.
Sorry, Stuart, let me step on you there. I was just gonna clarify. Yeah, I was gonna say exactly what you said. 2022 are very low. You know, you think of majority of our kind of contracts are five-eight-year kind of cycles, right? You get that kind of, you know, turnover volume traditionally, but we've been in a pretty good cycle there. I don't think I can quantify exactly the percentage per year, but it's, you know, it's nothing that overly concerns us because, you know, we have so many different contracts and many of them are smaller in size, so there's not one recompete that's really gonna, you know, be a major revenue impact.
Like I said, 2022 is low. 2023 is, you know, pretty normal, and there's a couple of larger recompetes that start to happen in 2024 and 2025, but nothing that concerns me at all.
Okay.
Those kind of recompetes.
We've seen right when you're the incumbent.
Right. Right, exactly. The Russia-Ukraine war, could you describe what, if any, impact that's having in the European theater and sort of op tempo and spending on the kind of services you're providing?
Yeah, I think everyone's aware that we have, you know, Europe, EUCOM, European Command for the Army through LOGCAP V. As you can imagine, the activity levels there have increased. You know, as we said in earnings, you know, that we could see that uptempo beginning and, you know, that continues and I think we'll know more when we get to earnings in our Q1 earnings and to be able to give you more color around that, but because it's still a very volatile situation as you can probably imagine.
Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, it's star followed by one to ask a question. Our next question comes from Michael Dudas of Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead, Michael.
Morning, gentlemen. Alison.
Morning, Mike.
Morning, Mike.
Just want some further thoughts on the contract structure. You indicated that there's you know there could be opportunities as you get more mature through the contract and such to generate better return margins or more upside. Just as it you know the cost plus versus the fixed price services the breakdown there is it gonna be depending on the location or type of job? Like for example Zone 1 is that something that you know the savings all that goes to the government or is it split or is that towards a target that you put forth? Just wanted a little more clarity on some of the opportunities here through the contract structure.
Yeah. The way the contract works is that each move is priced and there's a price per move, Mike. You know, from one location to another, and that's why it was very important to have the partners that we have in there who've got the knowledge and the proven experience of managing that supply chain and its cost base. The more efficient you get in doing that, the better returns you get as a consequence. Of course, the built-in protection of things like, you know, fuel and as we describe, you know, with the fuel prices going up as they are today is very important to protect those margins. Not just for us, but actually for the truckers and the companies themselves, of course.
I think that all bears out pretty well. As we get to know the industry and we use AI and ML to understand who's performing and who's not and what routes are, you know, profitable and more profitable and things like that, we certainly can drive efficiencies through the delivery of the program. I think over time, you'll see margins increase as a consequence.
Excellent. Thank you, Stuart.
Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue, so I'll hand the call back over to Stuart Bradie for closing remarks.
Thank you, Lydia. You know, we've presented today, obviously HomeSafe, lots of good questions. I think for me, you know, we're trying to sort of enhance the experience of the military families here. I think ultimately the growth and revenue that Mark portrayed, you know, CAGRs in basically the teens is terrific. I mean, it's just, you know, the fact that we've got EBITDA following suit at 12%-14%, that we're holding margins in at the low double digits at the 10% across the organization. Really lots of questions on the $4 and things like that, but the $4 is achieved without any capital deployment, zero. That's a massive significant shift.
To try and give you comparators, we've done the apples-to-apples from deploying half the capital, which now gives us instead of the old $4, gives us $4.75. Again, a 20% increase. That all coalesces around a 20%-25% CAGR in EPS. I mean, that's amazing, right? We really got that organically where we're gonna ramp up this program, and as Mark said, even if there is a delay of six-nine months, the 2025 targets hold if this goes to the Court of Federal Claims. Hopefully we've given you enough color. We've given you our share of the joint venture.
We've given you the team that we're going to be doing this with, which is, you know, world-class. Obviously, the impact on the numbers is what we have presented. We're all super excited. There's a lot of work in front of us, but it's an amazing organic opportunity to really enhance returns to our shareholders and to see KBR into the next, you know, 10 years. I think that's a really strong message to take away from today also. Thank you again, and I'm sure we'll have further calls on this and other items. Thanks again for your interest and taking the time.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.