Okay, to kick us off, we have LSB Industries. LSB, ticker LXU, is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. They manufacture ammonia and ammonium-related products for the agriculture and industrial markets in the U.S. through facilities in El Dorado, Arkansas, Cherokee, Alabama, and Pryor, Oklahoma. They also operate a facility for Covestro in Baytown, Texas. The company operates as a single reportable segment with 2025 sales of $615 million, roughly evenly split between industrial and agricultural uses. LSB has around 72 million shares outstanding, trading around $15 for a $1.1 billion market cap, net debt of $300 million for a $1.4 billion enterprise value. Joining us is CFO Cheryl Maguire. Cheryl joined LSB in 2015 and has been CFO since January 2020.
Cheryl has more than 20 years of financial and accounting experience in the chemical manufacturing and energy industries with previous roles at LyondellBasell and Petroplus. With that, I'll just turn it over to Cheryl to give an overview of LSB. Thank you for being here.
Okay. All right. Good morning, everyone. It's an interesting time to be in the fertilizer world, and also an interesting time to be in the industrial and mining space. As Wayne mentioned, we are a nitrogen chemical company. We basically buy natural gas, that's our feedstock, and we make ammonia. That ammonia, we can either sell, either into the industrial space or in the fertilizer space. What we really like to do as much as possible is take that ammonia and upgrade it. The more you upgrade ammonia, the better your margins, and that's been something we've been focused on for a while. When we upgrade ammonia, we're making it into primarily either UAN, which is a fertilizer, and we all know what's going on with the fertilizer markets today. Their pricing is very strong.
Part of that, of course, is driven by the war in Iran. The other core side of our business is on the industrial and mining. We make nitric acid, which we sell to large global chemical companies like Dow and BASF, that goes into polyurethane. We also make ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate solution for blasting. Our customers there are mining companies and, you know, primarily copper and gold mining, which is very strong today. Our business is enjoying pricing that's strong across all of our end markets.
Here's our management team. We've been together, actually, we were brought in, most of us, in 2015. In 2015, the company was struggling financially, $40 million of EBITDA and leverage of over 14x . The assets were very poorly run, and the turnaround has really been focused on driving our production rates, increasing our free cash flow, and reducing our leverage. That's been a focus of ours over the last several years.
Quick snapshot of our end markets. I kinda highlighted a couple of the key ones for you just a few minutes ago. On the fertilizer side, we primarily sell UAN, and UAN is applied primarily to corn for us here in the United States. That market is very, very strong right now, especially driven by the war in Iran. On the industrial side of the business, again, our key products here, nitric acid into polyurethane, and then also ammonium nitrate and LDAN into blasting and mining operations.
Our plants sit in Cherokee, Alabama, El Dorado, Arkansas, and Pryor, Oklahoma, primarily. We also have the management fee with Covestro for a plant in Baytown. We enjoy good logistics in terms of getting our product across the United States, and particularly over to the western end of the United States, where our mining company customers are. Where we were yesterday, i.e., 10 years ago, we were a bunch of different businesses. We had an HVAC business, we had a machines business, and then we had the chemicals business.
Our capital structure, we were 14x levered. We operated our plants at below 70%, and when you do that, you basically don't even cover your costs. Our EBITDA was pretty low. Today, we're chemicals-focused. We've sold off all other businesses. Our capital structure, our debt is, we're levered below 2x .
We continue to make improvements every day in our on-stream rates, and we just released $160 million of EBITDA for 2025. Where are we going? We have about $50 million of value creation left to go with the assets that we have, and I'll talk about that in just a minute. Given our healthy capital structure and the turnaround in the business thus far, we feel like we're in a good position to grow. With the ammonium nitrate and low density ammonium nitrate products that we sell, again, very much driven by what's happening with gold prices and copper prices, which are both benefiting today from the strength in those markets. That business is very strong for us.
Similar on the agricultural side, although these slides are not updated for the last 20 days since the war in Iran, we have certainly seen pricing spike for both UAN and ammonia. Our improved financial performance over the last several years has really been driven by our focus on upgrading our product and improving our downstream production for UAN ammonium nitrate product. You can see that in our EBITDA growth over the last several years, and I'll talk through a little bit more about that in just a minute.
Our balance sheet, our focus is on keeping leverage ratios in check. We are below 2.2x today, and our focus is on improving free cash flow. We have $160 million of EBITDA that we just released. Our focus is on adding $50 million of that over the next 24 months, and I can talk through about how we're going about doing that. If you look at our balance sheet and you can see the reduction in leverage, and also I think what's important to illustrate is our capital allocation over the last four years. We've returned $460 million through share repurchase, and also reducing our debt. Our debt's publicly traded, and we can go back out and buy that in the public markets. We have been buying back both debt and stock over the last 4 years.
One key area commercially that we've been focused on as well, if you think about our business and where it was in 2021. Mostly spot market pricing, with only about 20% of our business tied to gas plus arrangements. The reason we like gas plus is because we can take the cost of natural gas and pass it along to our customers and provide a nice hedge against natural gas volatility here in the United States. Today, the business is about 40% cost plus , a lot of our industrial business is tied to a gas plus an adder. Really providing some downside protection on volatility of gas prices.
The next slide provides a quick snapshot of our focus on improving our downstream production. This is our UAN as well as our ammonium nitrate and nitric acid. Again, we want the nitric acid and the AN volumes to continue to increase and the sales volumes of ammonia to decrease.
That means we're upgrading ammonia in favor of just selling it in the market, and that helps our margin profile. This is really the key focus, which has helped us capture about $20 million of EBITDA uplift in the last several years from continuing to drive improvement in production downstream. When we started on this path, we had identified about $70 million of value to capture since 2023. This is benchmarking to 2023. We've captured about $20 million of that in our run rate EBITDA profile through 2025. That leaves $50 million still at play that we're currently working on. If you think about where does the $50 million come from, the first thing on the bottom, you can see a $15 million uplift from low carbon.
This is a carbon capture project at our El Dorado facility where we've partnered with Lapis Energy. They will own our carbon capture equipment, and they will buy our CO2. The CO2 is currently vented today. We've got an operating agreement where we will sell them the CO2, and they will capture the 45Q tax credit. We get cash for the CO2 that we're currently venting today, and that will be worth about $12 million-$15 million for us. We have been in constant contact with the EPA on the permit, and we feel very confident on, you know, receiving technical permit in April of this year with a permit to construct expected in August and then a permit to inject by the end of the year.
We would expect to start seeing this run rate $15 million improvement start to come through in 2027. On the other side of the slide, it points to an additional $35 million of additional production and cost improvement that the teams are focused on. This is going to come from continued focus on improving our ammonia production, as well as our downstream production. In addition, we have been carrying some extra cost as we look to optimize our production, and we have opportunity to reduce cost over the next 24 months as well. With that, also efficiencies that we see in how we use our natural gas and scrap reduction, things like that we're focused on. At the end of the day, we see pathways to $50 million of incremental EBITDA over the next 24 months.
With that, I'm happy to take questions.
Thank you, Cheryl. That was a great overview.
Yeah.
We'll start off the Q&A, and if there's any questions in the room, please raise your hand.
Hi.
Hi.
I don't know your company as well as I wish I did.
Well, I'm happy to tell you all about it.
Can I get to—b ecause obviously we have an enormous change in the energy markets. Can you talk about how much leverage you're getting out of this period of time, and how is that translating into ammonia and EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, and we're entering a period of this war going on for a period of time, what's the texture of EBITDA elevation going on, please?
The closest thing we can point to at this point is when Russia invaded Ukraine. When Russia invaded Ukraine, ou r ammonia prices spiked to $1,600-$1,700 a ton, and similarly, UAN pricing as well. It was mostly an ammonia story in 2022.
Right.
Our EBITDA did run up to $440 million. It was definitely a huge uplift in pricing.
That's from roughly $150 million.
From roughly $150 million.
Wow.
Now, this—
How long did it stay there?
That was our EBITDA in 2022, and then pricing started to come down in 2023, and had normalized by then. It was really a pop for that one year in 2022.
It was a one-year event.
Yeah.
It wasn't a sustainable event.
It's not a sustainable event. Yes. As soon as the energy market started to trend back down, our EBITDA returned to more normal levels. This war is a little different. If you think about it, approximately 30% of fertilizer. Think about 30% of LNG, 30% of oil, and 30% of fertilizer ballpark—
Right.
Is coming out of the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, that provides a huge chokehold to supply. We kinda think about it as, you know, 30% of fertilizer is constrained from a supply perspective. If this continues, it has the potential to be pretty significant to fertilizer pricing with that much supply out of the market. I think the other thing that you're seeing is our gas cost here in the United States right now is hovering around $3. We still have that natural gas advantage.
Right.
If you think about Europe, I just read this morning that the equivalent cost of gas in Europe right now is $23 per MMBTU.
Right. Right.
if you think about $23 per MMBTU on-
Versus 3. Right.
$35— 35 MMBTUs per ton of ammonia, that's an $800 ammonia cost just to make ammonia, right? You've gotta sell it for more than $800, or they're gonna take that production offline. If that production comes offline, then Europe becomes a buyer of ammonia, and you've taken their supply out of the market. That again is more constraint on fertilizer. At the end of the day, pricing today has not run up to where it was in 2022, although we are seeing $800 ammonia, $900 ammonia. We're seeing $450 UAN. This is headed that way, and so the question becomes is how long does this last? Because it does have a lot of potential to be pretty.
One final question is how much demand destruction do you get when you start pushing the price envelope?
It's a great question. Buyers are slower to purchase right now, you know, trying to wait and see what happens with pricing. I think the issue that is going to play out is we're just entering our planting season in the United States. Planting of corn is happening in March and April, and so the fertilizer is needed now. There's not as much ability. They're going to have to buy the fertilizer. You need to apply nitrogen.
It's not optional, right? It's this situation where the pricing is high in an already tight market, and demand is strong because we're heading into planting season right now. While there is some demand destruction, and you may see some corn acres switch to soy or another product, we are still expecting pretty healthy demand.
Thanks.
Yeah.
You mentioned that in 2027, the low carbon opportunities, carbon capture and sequestration have very significant tax credits and tax advantages. Will those accrue to you or to the purchaser? By order of magnitude, do you have any idea how significant it might be?
The 45Q tax credit will not come to us in the way that we've currently constructed. What we're doing is we're selling the CO2 to Lapis Energy, and that's how we get the $15 million. It's a true sale. The 45Q will accrue to them, and that's an $85 a ton, and they'll capture that. They've made all of the investment in the carbon capture equipment. We haven't invested any capital here at all. We still accrue $15 million from the sale of the CO2.
Thank you.
Cheryl, what's the price of the CO2 that you're selling?
We're selling it for about $31 per ton.
Thirty-one?
Mm-hmm.
Is that at a discount or premium? You got that number?
It's a bit of a discount to spot. Generally what we do when we lock in long-term sales contracts like that, there is a bit of a discount to a spot price. Yeah.
The same type of question in terms of 2022 cash flows accelerated. What did you do with that incremental cash flow, and what are you thinking you're gonna be doing this time?
In 2022, we bought back $460 million of stock and debt. Now, today, our focus is on looking to grow the company. We see potential opportunities to expand our footprint into other nitrogen companies or complementary businesses, and so we are looking to grow the business.
The fellow behind me is a farmer from Iowa, and he's planting corn. Didn't he already order his ingredients, the fertilizer and ammonia and seed?
Yes.
Wasn't that already pre-ordered at a previous price and hedged?
Some of it, yeah. Some of it is ordered in advance, and so we generally take orders about one to two months in advance. We do have a pretty good book of order already. I would say we still have about 40% left unsold.
The orders that he gave you, were they priced fixed?
Yes.
All right. Thank you.
Yeah.
Hi. Can you talk about any impact that you may have had or will have from tariffs?
Interestingly enough, not a lot. Tariffs have helped to support a higher price actually in the United States. If you think about Tampa ammonia coming in, that ammonia is tariffed. Product coming over from Canada has you know been tariffed. That sets a bit of a higher pricing. Overall, I would say in thinking about, you know, I think it's contributed to higher pricing, but nothing more than that.
Thank you.
Thank you. Can you remind us of the company's usable NOLs at this point? I mean, you came into this with the balance sheet in very good shape. How are you, I guess, to a previous question, scenario planning, you know, whether it's a one-time windfall or, you know, the optionality this opens up for you in terms of capital allocation?
If you think about the base business. We're trying to get to $200 million of EBITDA. We're at $160 million, add another $50 million, so you're just over $200 million. We have significant NOLs, and we don't expect to be a cash taxpayer for at least four or five years. If you think about that on $200 million of EBITDA and $75 million of CapEx, and call it $30 million of interest, free cash flow is expected, you know, our target is in the ballpark of or $100 million, let's just say. We already are focused on growing our free cash flow.
Now, if this war in Iran continues for much longer, we will see significant price appreciation, and we already have. With that cash flow, we are looking to, one, grow the business through M&A. Also if we can't identify a target that makes sense for us, we would look to buy back some stock and debt. Our focus really is on growing the company.
Great. Maybe just last one. With the leadership team you have in place, the track record you guys have put together, you know, particularly over the last six years, can you talk about the confidence that you have now to be able to look at external opportunities outside the organization and run the playbook you have the last six years?
Yeah. We definitely have a management team in place who we feel can run a larger company, and we have experience now with turning a company around given what we've done here at LSB. Our focus is on assets that are underperforming because we have the ability to improve given the team we have, also looking at complementary businesses. We really like the industrial business. We like sulfuric acid, we like nitric acid, we like, you know, fertilizer companies. We're looking at a whole host of what could make sense for us.
Thank you.
Yeah.
To piggyback on that and, you know, with the balance sheet significantly improved and a potential cash flow windfall, what are you looking for in terms of size, and how do you evaluate valuations in the current market?
Yeah. I mean, if you think about our current base business today, you know, $150 million, $160 million of EBITDA, we're looking at companies in that space, $150 million, $160 million- $200 million of EBITDA. Substantially, that would be a big lift for us from an EBITDA perspective. That's currently our focus today.
You discussed during the presentation. You know, we've discussed a lot about fertilizer so far. Taking the business to more industrial applications, you mentioned the 40% cost plus contracts now. Can you discuss what you can get that industrial mix in a more normalized time, over time, and kinda have the margin profile for industrial uses versus spot?
Yeah. It's a tough. It's an interesting debate that we have internally a lot. We like the industrial business and the natural gas hedge against gas, and the ability to pass through. There is certainly the view that natural gas costs in the United States will continue to trend up with more LNG exports, data centers, things like that. We really like that hedge on the industrial business. We really like the flexibility that we have with the spot business. I would say, you know, being able to capitalize on markets like today is a reason, you know, we don't wanna take the business too much in the other way. I think I would say we kinda like the balance of both.
All right.
I'm sure you've heard this question a million times now, but like, what is the role of large language models and what people are calling AI in your operations? Not the supply and demand of your products, but like, how you run your business. Is this something important to you?
Let me answer this how I think you asked it, but tell me if this doesn't answer the question. We do look at AI in our business today. We have focused on preventative maintenance and predictive maintenance, which is somewhat AI-based. I think where we're going to is there is AI that you can bring in to actually look at the mechanical integrity of your assets to see where you might have degradation or to predict when you might have some downtime. We are looking to go that route and may start to invest somewhat in there, dip our toes a little bit more in that this year.
Thank you.
Yeah.
China is a dominant player when it comes to semiconductor materials, and nitric acid is one of the major, like, components that is used in making those semiconductors. As geopolitical risk increases, do you think the industry will diversify to countries like U.S.? Or do you think that China will still be a dominant player when it comes to supplying these materials?
The semiconductor space, we do have some product, nitric acid, that's sold in that end market. Not a big amount. We seem to think or see that we're trending more towards production here in the United States, and so I think ultimately, that trend may hold true for other areas as well.
Cheryl, your management team has worked very hard for lowering your net leverage from 14x to 2x . Now you are talking about potentially acquiring something that has $150 million-$200 million of EBITDA, which will double the size of the company.
Mm-hmm.
How much net leverage do you consider will you be comfortable with? Because the last time around, you sold a lot of assets. Doesn't look as though you have a lot to sell.
Mm-hmm.
Can you talk about what you're t hinking?
Yeah. We would look to use a combination of cash on the balance sheet, equity, and potentially some debt as well, in an acquisition. Our stated goal is to keep our leverage below 2.5x in a mid-cycle pricing environment. Now, in an acquisition, we would consider potentially 3x levered or maybe a bit higher, with the expectation that we would use free cash flow post-acquisition to pay that debt back down. Yeah.
We touched earlier on the kinda cost advantage that this is creating for U.S. producers. What capacity are you running at now? If you see a prolonged conflict in Iran, is it just price leverage that you'll get, or is there ability to get more volume too?
It's primarily price leverage. We are fully sold out. I think what we're seeing now is we do have the ability, at least on the spot side of our business, to flex between UAN as a fertilizer and ammonium nitrate. There has been some significant capacity taken out of the U.S. market with CF's plant. We expect that they're going to be out, you know, for the remainder of this year, I think. For us, it becomes a price discussion in terms of optimizing between UAN and an AN solution.
I think we have time for one more, if there's any in the room. Just maybe you can touch on, aside from the broader market tailwinds, operational improvements that you've made in the business and if there's any further opportunities.
I would probably point back to this slide here, where we focus on the next $50 million of value creation, with the carbon capture project slated to go live at the end of this year, and then the additional $35 million of production and cost improvement that we're targeting over the next 24 months.
Well, thank you very much, Cheryl. That was a great overview and a very timely discussion to have you here. We really appreciate it.
All right. Thank you for having me.