ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)
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May 4, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT - Market closed
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Earnings Call: Q1 2026

Apr 16, 2026

Operator

Welcome to ManpowerGroup's Q1 earnings results conference call. You'll be put into listen-only mode until the question and answer time begins. We have a full queue today and ask that you please limit yourself to one question and re-queue if you'd like to ask a follow-up. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so. I would like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chair and CEO, Mr. Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our Q1 2026 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, and our President and Chief Strategy Officer, Becky Frankiewicz, are both with me today. For your convenience, our prepared remarks are available in the investor relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. I'll begin with a brief overview of the quarter, including how we're seeing conditions evolve across our markets, and then I'll share a few updates on how we're positioning ManpowerGroup to win in any environment. Becky will then provide an update on how we are driving commercial excellence and the opportunities we're capturing with AI, followed by Jack, who will walk through the detailed financial results and our guidance for the Q2 of 2026. I'll close with a few comments before we open the line for Q&A. Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Slide two of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Jack. Our Q1 results reflect disciplined execution and continued stabilization of revenue trends across key markets. In the Q1 , we delivered reported revenues of $4.5 billion, representing an organic constant currency growth of 3%. System-wide revenue, which includes our expanding franchise revenue base, was $5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.4% reflects improving demand trends as well as P&L leverage. We're also encouraged that top-line growth exceeded our expectations, reflecting strong execution of our commercial initiatives. We are expanding our new business pipeline, increasing client engagement, and continuing to win in the areas where growth is strongest and most resilient. At the same time, the manufacturing environment is strengthening, particularly across Europe. Taken together, this is enabling us to drive continued momentum across the portfolio with strong Manpower performance among key markets, including France, U.S., and Italy.

We're also seeing stable underlying trends in Experis and solid performance in Talent Solutions, tap in MSP, and Right Management, even as RPO remains more challenged. Our diversified portfolio, global scale, and specialized brand expertise continue to position us well to win in the marketplace. As we move down the P&L, we have continued our relentless focus on driving operating leverage. During Q1, we reduced SG&A, as adjusted, by 4% in constant currency while delivering continued top-line growth, reflecting the impact of our ongoing efficiency efforts. Something I'll share more detail on shortly. Finally, we're closely monitoring developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. While it is still too early to assess if there will be a broader impact, like many global companies, we have become accustomed to navigating a fast-changing environment that includes geopolitical developments alongside economic and labor market shifts.

In the meantime, we remain focused on staying close to our clients and their evolving needs while managing the business with discipline. Against this backdrop, we're encouraged by the developing short-term momentum and equally excited by the long-term market opportunity. This is supported by improving business confidence in the U.S., as evidenced by the increase in CEO Confidence reported by the Conference Board, rising manufacturing PMI in the U.S. and Europe, and strong business resilience. As conditions improve, we expect sustainable organic revenue growth to build progressively. Our intent is to be the architects of our own future and to proactively take actions that will position ManpowerGroup to lead the industry, win in any environment, and drive long-term value creation. We are transforming our business model to drive growth and expand margins over time.

As part of this commitment, we are announcing a transformation initiative that will reimagine how we operate and deliver value to our clients and candidates and provide significant cost optimization. Over the past year, we have been doing significant planning to launch this work, and we are pleased to share more details with you today. We have made targeted investments in automation and AI and built a modern global technology infrastructure, including our PowerSuite platform, which now serves as the backbone of our digitization strategy.

With nearly 90% of our global business operating on this platform, we have created a unified technology stack with access to global data across all of our global businesses, enabling us to operate at a unique data scale, strengthen our insight, and be better partners to our clients. As a result of these investments, we are launching a strategic global transformation program that we expect will deliver $200 million in permanent cost savings in 2028. There are two major components to our plan. The first, which I've talked about before, is the complete redesign of our back-office operation, which is progressing well. The second is taking best practices and key learnings from our back-office transformation and executing a similar program for the front office. These redesign processes will be industry-leading and enable us to execute more effectively and move faster to fill roles.

In addition to reducing our cost structure, this transformation will improve both client and candidate experience, positioning our brands to win in market share, and better serve clients in a highly fragmented marketplace. We have begun this work in North America, redesigning end-to-end processes, embedding automation and AI where it simplifies work, creating best-in-class local for world blueprints before extending globally. The goal is clear: connect more people to work by filling more orders to drive growth while structurally lowering our cost to serve. I am also pleased to announce that we have recently hired a dedicated chief enterprise transformation officer who has joined our executive leadership team to drive the execution of this plan across the enterprise.

At the same time, we continue to thoughtfully review our global portfolio to ensure that we have the right mix of businesses and brands across key markets, prioritizing investments in core, higher-return opportunities while evaluating opportunities to divest of non-core assets to strengthen our financial position and support our long-term growth and margin ambitions. Ultimately, these actions will accelerate our path back to our historical margin profile and create a structural cost basis to expand margins further over time. Now, before I hand it over to Becky, let me just say one more time how excited we are about the transformation underway to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and create capacity to invest in growth. Core element of this transformation is building new capabilities that align with where the market is heading. This includes evolving how we bring innovative service to market, particularly with AI.

We're also encouraged by the immense opportunities AI is creating as it enables us to shape the future of our industry, including how it is influencing client behavior and how they buy workforce solutions. This shift creates a meaningful opportunity for us to evolve our business model so that AI becomes a sustainable tailwind by operating in new ways and developing new products for our clients. With that context, let me turn it over to Becky to go deeper into our commercial initiatives and how we are leveraging AI.

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Thank you, Jonas. Last quarter, I shared that my remit is focused on driving commercial excellence, strengthening and expanding our core capabilities, and accelerating AI across the business. Today, I am pleased to share more on how we are embedding AI as a growth multiplier and will highlight where AI is already driving measurable value in three areas, unlocking effective commercial scale, creating new ways to deliver a best-in-class talent experience, and finally, monetizing new human-plus-agentic solutions for our clients through strategic AI partnerships. Let me start with how we are embedding AI into our processes to unlock effective commercial scale. Today in France, our proprietary AI-powered sales targeting engine has generated approximately $200 million in incremental revenue. It pinpoints the highest probability opportunities so our teams can focus on coverage where sales conversion and revenue impact are the highest.

We expect this incremental revenue to increase significantly as we scale. Second, let me share how we are creating a differentiated talent experience, one that is critical to attracting and retaining the skilled associates and consultants our clients value most. To strengthen our talent experience, we recently announced an expansion of our PowerSuite technology platform to include our partnership with Hubert.ai to deliver AI-powered screening and interview experiences. In the past six months, we've completed over 25,000 AI-led interviews and reduced screening time by 67%. Automating early-stage interviews helps improve fill rates and time to hire and frees our recruiters and talent agents to focus on higher-value, relationship-driven work. At the same time, we are achieving 87% candidate satisfaction, as more than half of this activity takes place outside of traditional working hours, meeting talent when and where works for them.

These responsible, transparent AI capabilities now support markets representing 40% of our global revenue, with plans to scale to 70% by year-end. Third, monetization. I am delighted to share how we are bringing AI capabilities to market and creating a future where people can build more impactful careers and where companies can achieve greater profitable growth. Human-plus-agentic workforces are not a future concept. They are already here. In March, we announced a breakthrough partnership with SoundHound AI, a global leader in voice and conversational AI. Our Experis U.S. business is already helping companies across industries to review and redesign workflows and accelerate the adoption of AI and intelligent automation. This is the lead offering in our Accelerate AI services suite, built on a simple and powerful premise that humans and agents can deliver more when working side by side.

This partnership expands our presence in the human plus AI space, which is central to our strategy. We are starting in the U.S. to drive scale and market leadership and plan to expand globally. Finally, we know we capture the impact of AI by ensuring that our teams are equipped to use it. We are pleased that tens of thousands of our employees around the world have completed AI fundamentals training, and over 80% of our workforce is already using AI in their workflows. Our approach is simple. Automate what should be automated, augment what should stay human, and create entirely new ways to deliver workforce solutions to our clients. We are in progress to capture the full value of these initiatives, and we expect AI to become an increasingly meaningful driver of growth, productivity, and differentiation over time.

Look forward to continuing to update you on our strategic progress and how we will move at pace. I will now turn it back over to Jack.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Becky. I'll quickly first touch on the headline quarterly results, and I'm excited to give more details on our expanded transformation savings Jonas announced at the beginning of the call. In the Q1 , we delivered reported revenues of $4.5 billion. System-wide revenue, including franchises, was $5 billion. Our Q1 revenue results represented constant currency growth of 3%. US dollar-reported revenues, after adjusting for currency impacts, came in at the top of our constant currency guidance range. We'll talk more about the revenue trend drivers in the business and geographic segment summaries. Gross profit margin came in below the low end of our guidance range, driven by lower bench utilization in Europe and mix shifts impacting staffing margin, while permanent recruitment came in as expected with sequential improvement. As adjusted, EBITDA was $61 million, representing a 5% increase in constant currency compared to the prior year period.

As adjusted, EBITDA margin was 1.4%, up 10 basis points year over year and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range. Organic days adjusted constant currency revenue increased 3% in the quarter, which was favorable to our midpoint guidance range of 1% growth. Coming back to our transformation programs that Jonas referenced, we are excited to announce our path to expected savings of $200 million in 2028. We have previously discussed the implementation of our leading cloud-enabled PowerSuite front and back-office technology platforms. These platforms are now being complemented with best-in-class end-to-end processes. We started with back-office processes and are flipping to run rate savings in IT and finance costs during 2026, which build through 2028, representing 25% of the total cost savings. The strategic transformation will expand to the rest of the world in 2027 to drive expected net savings in 2028.

The front-office transformation, like the back office, will include standardized processes infused with leading automation and agentic AI across all major businesses, driving significant structural savings. We will continue to break out restructuring and strategic transformation program charges as we progress the program. We expect the ongoing 2026 run rate of these charges to be lower than the Q1 amount and estimate a range of $10 million-$15 million on average per quarter through the end of the year. Moving to the EPS bridge, reported earnings per share for the quarter was $0.05. Adjusted EPS was $0.51 and came in just above our guidance midpoint.

Working from our guidance midpoint of $0.50, our results included a slightly lower operational performance of $0.02, a slightly lower tax rate, which had a positive $0.01 impact, a foreign currency impact that was $0.01 worse, and improved interest and other expenses, which was $0.03 better than our guidance. Restructuring costs and strategic transformation program costs represented $0.46. Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year on an organic constant-currency basis, the Manpower brand had strong growth of 6% in the quarter, up sequentially from the 5% growth in the Q4 . The Experis brand declined by 9%, an expected decrease from the 6% decline in the Q4 , largely driven by the timing of healthcare IT projects in the U.S. The Talent Solutions brand declined by 1%, an improvement from the Q4 decline of 4%.

Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business continues to experience a sluggish permanent hiring environment but did see sequential revenue trend improvement. Our MSP business saw continued revenue growth, and Right Management also grew during the quarter. Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 16% for the quarter. Staffing margin contributed a 70 basis points reduction due to mix shifts and bench utilization in the Q1 . Permanent recruitment activity resulted in a 20 basis points decline. Other services resulted in a 20 basis points margin decrease. Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 62% of gross profit. Our Experis professional business comprised 21%, and Talent Solutions comprised 17%.

During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 3% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, stable from the 3% decline in the Q4 . Our Manpower brand was flat in organic constant-currency gross profit year-over-year, relatively stable considering rounding from the 1% growth in the Q4 year-over-year trend. Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 11% in organic constant-currency year-over-year, a decline from the 5% decrease in the Q4 , largely driven by the timing of healthcare IT projects in the U.S. Gross profit in Talent Solutions declined 5% in organic constant-currency year-over-year, which was an improvement from the 12% decrease in the Q4 . The improvement in trend was driven by RPO as the rate of decline narrowed significantly. MSP trends also improved from the Q4 , and Right Management had solid gross profit growth in the quarter on increased outplacement activity.

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $695 million. SG&A as adjusted was down 4% on a constant-currency basis. The year-over-year constant currency SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $23 million. Dispositions were very minor and represented a decrease of $1 million, while currency changes contributed to a $38 million increase. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15% in constant currency in the Q1 . Adjustments representing restructuring and strategic transformation program charges were $26 million. Balancing gross profit trends with strong cost actions while funding ongoing transformation to enhance EBITDA margin in both the short and long term remains one of our highest priorities. The Americas segment comprised 25% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 4% year-over-year on a constant currency basis.

As adjusted, OUP was $26 million and OUP margin was 2.3%. Restructuring charges of $7 million largely represented actions in the U.S. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 59% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $655 million during the quarter, representing a 5% days adjusted decrease compared to the prior year. OUP as adjusted for our U.S. business was $9 million in the quarter. OUP margin as adjusted was 1.3%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 26% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. increased 5% on a days adjusted basis during the quarter, which represented strong market performance with seven consecutive quarters of growth and a slight change from the 7% increase in the Q4 as we anniversary strong growth in the prior year.

The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 39% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues. Experis U.S. revenue decreased 15% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, down from the 10% decline in the Q4 as the business anniversaried strong healthcare IT projects in the prior year. Excluding the impact of healthcare IT project volumes in the prior year, Experis U.S. revenue decreased 9% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, largely in line with the Q4 trend. Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 35% of gross profit and saw a 2% decrease in revenue year-over-year in the quarter, compared to a 2% increase in the Q4 , driven by lower sequential MSP activity. This was partially offset by strong growth in Right Management outplacement activity and improving RPO year-over-year trends.

We expect the U.S. business to flip to low single-digit percentage revenue growth in the Q2 on an improved Experis revenue trend. Southern Europe revenue comprised 47% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, representing 3% growth in constant currency during the Q1 . As adjusted, OUP for our Southern Europe business was $58 million in the quarter, and OUP margin was 2.8%. Restructuring charges of $4 million represented actions in France. France revenue equaled $1.1 billion and comprised 51% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and was flat on a constant currency basis. As adjusted, OUP for our France business was $21 million in the quarter. Adjusted OUP margin was 2%. France revenue trends improved during the Q1 , and we expect a similar rate of revenue trend of flat to slight growth in the Q2 .

Revenue in Italy equaled $475 million in the Q1 , reflecting an increase of 8% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. OUP as adjusted equaled $29 million, and OUP margin was 6%. Our Italy business is executing well, and we estimate mid-single digit percentage revenue growth in the Q2 . Our Northern Europe segment comprised 17% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue up $790 million represented a 1% decline in organic constant currency. As adjusted, OUP was -$3 million in the quarter. This represents year-over-year OUP improvement during the last two quarters, reflecting cost actions taken to date. The restructuring charges of $5 million primarily represent actions in the Nordics and the U.K. Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represents 34% of segment revenues in the quarter.

During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 2% on a days adjusted constant currency basis, representing ongoing stabilization. The remaining countries in the region progressed as expected, with largely stable to improving revenue trends. The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 11% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenues equaled $510 million, representing an increase of 8% in constant currency. As adjusted, OUP was $22 million, and OUP margin was 4.3%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 57% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 4% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. We remain pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued solid revenue growth in the Q2 . I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet.

In the Q1 , free cash flow represented an outflow of $135 million compared to an outflow of $167 million in the prior year. The cash outflow was negatively impacted by the end of the Q1 payment timing involving our MSP business and, to a lesser extent, some isolated working capital utilization, and we expect these items to reverse in the Q2 . We expect free cash flow to be negative in the H1 of 2026, which will be offset by strong free cash flow during the H2 . At quarter end, day sales outstanding was 59 days, up four days from the prior year, reflecting enterprise mix shifts and isolated quarter end timing on certain receivables. During the Q1 , capital expenditures represented $9 million, and we did not repurchase any shares.

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $225 million and total debt of $1.1 billion. Net debt equaled $922 million at quarter end, an increase from year-end reflecting Q1 seasonality. Our adjusted debt ratios at quarter end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of 2.86 and total debt to total capitalization at 36%. Detail of our debt and credit facility arrangements are included in the appendix of the presentation. Next, I'll review our outlook for the Q2 of 2026. Our forecast anticipates a continuation of existing trends. With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the Q2 to be in the range of $0.91-$1.1. Guidance range also includes favorable foreign currency impact of $0.05 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide.

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a 1% increase and a 5% increase, and at the midpoint is a 3% increase. Considering business days are equal year-over-year and the impact of dispositions is very small, our organic days-adjusted constant currency revenue increase also represents 3% growth at the midpoint. EBITDA margin for the Q2 is projected to be up 10 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the Q2 will be 43%. I will continue to carve out any restructuring and global strategic transformation program costs incurred, and they are not included in the underlying guidance. In addition, we estimate our weighted average shares to be 47.7 million. I will now turn it back to Jonas.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Jack. In closing, as the market continues to stabilize, we're operating well, staying focused, and executing with discipline. Our team remains hyper-focused on delivering for the now, while a dedicated group advances our transformation initiatives to position us for future opportunities. I look forward to keeping you updated on our continued execution as we build on the progress we've made and capture the momentum ahead. As always, thank you to our talented team for their relentless focus and to our candidates and clients for your continued trust. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one one. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. As a reminder, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question, and if you'd like to ask a follow-up, please re-queue. Our first question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi. It's good to be back to growth here and thinking about the guide of organic constant currency same-day basis of 3% is pretty similar to the Q1 . Would you call Manpower's business in a recovery mode, like leaning towards acceleration here, or would you more call it at a point of a stable growth?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Good morning, Andrew. Yeah, no, I think we're very pleased with the improving momentum in the Manpower business. You saw an acceleration between Q4 into Q1. We're now anniversarying strong growth again, and as Jack said, we've had seven quarters of growth in Manpower in the U.S., four quarters globally. So it's really nice to see the Manpower business performing better and with momentum. It's great to notice that despite all of the uncertainty and the volatility in the markets, the underlying economic activity is resilient, yet uncertain, and that is, as we know, a good opportunity for us to provide our services and workforce solutions to our clients under the Manpower brand.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Can I just ask a follow-up to that, Jonas? Obviously, moving forward in a still uncertain environment leans towards flexible labor solutions. One of the things I heard about when I presented at the Staffing Industry Analysts Conference is that companies are unsure of their medium-term plans for their workforce because of AI, and that might lean currently towards more flexible solutions, as that's figured out. Do you think that's just a theory, or do you think that's happening in the marketplace and kind of part of the growth leaning forwards for Manpower?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

For Manpower, that would not really be a factor because it's very resilient to any AI impact, and I'm sure we'll talk later on around the impact in other areas and the opportunities above all that we see with AI. I think it's basically an uncertainty related to the economic environment and outlook. Employers are getting buffeted by geopolitical events, tariffs, wars that are ongoing or started, and that clearly drives employer hesitation. In our mind, the client hesitation is more related to those events than any particular concerns or possible impacts of AI into their workforce.

Andrew Steinerman
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thanks, Jonas.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO. Your line is open.

Jeff Silber
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO

Thank you so much. I wanted to shift gears and focus on some of the transformation savings that you talked about. Is it possible to give us a bit more color, either by geographic region, where we might see more of those transformation services and also the timing by geographic regions? Are there certain regions we're going to see it ahead of others?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. Yeah, let me just, before I hand it over to Jack to provide some more of the details, maybe take a step back and provide a bit of context around this global strategic transformation program. As we've talked about over a number of quarters, we've been investing very heavily in a digitization strategy that impacts all of our operations. We're deploying global applications across our operations. We have also engaged in a significant back office transformation program, and based on those investments and the experience and capabilities that we're accumulating, and as Becky mentioned in the prepared remarks, the increased confidence that we see in the role that AI can play in improving our operations and delivering better services and solutions to our clients and candidates.

We have been planning for a year now to really broaden this transformation program to also include our front office and really redesign our processes in a way that leads the industry and enables us to do things and drive our business in a very different way in the future. Maybe, Jack, you could now give a little bit more detail around the announcement we made this morning.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. Specific to your question, Jeff, on geography impact. I think the way I talk about it, as you see, this is both the back office program which we've progressed nicely and, as Jonas said, building on that, moving that to the front office processes. You see in the chart that we provided on slide seven that the initial savings are coming through the back office. That majority of the savings is coming from the European region where we started a lot of our back office processes first, and that's both finance and IT coming through in terms of the standardization and centralization we've seen there on the technology, of course, that we've been talking about for quite some time. As we move forward now with the front office, we're actually starting in North America.

As you see the geography impacts and you see the green in that bar chart moving to front office savings, you'll see North America come through first in 2027. We're doing all that work now in 2026, and it's launched very well and we're very excited about the progress so far. As we go to the rest of the world, in 2027, following that blueprint from North America, you'll see more broader savings in the rest of the regions coming through in 2028. That's on the front office side. On the back office side, as I mentioned, starting in Europe, we're actually in the process of doing North America and wrapping up North America on the back office process now. That will contribute to some of those additional savings on the blue component of that bar chart into 2027.

Jeff Silber
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO

That's really helpful. Thanks so much.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with North coast Research. Your line is open.

Kartik Mehta
Executive Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, Northcoast Research

Hey, good morning. Jack, if you just look at the gross margin trends, you talked about maybe the impact staffing is having on it, and I'm wondering how much of that is just mix. Is it just enterprise demand versus SMB demand that you've seen in the past, or is pricing having an impact now?

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. Thanks, Kartik. Let me talk to that. I guess what I'd take you back to is the H2 of 2025, and at that time we were seeing enterprise mix shift continue to have an adverse impact on the overall staffing margin. When we show the staffing margin walk year-over-year, you can see that having an impact. As we went from the Q3 to the Q4 , we actually saw that stabilize. The level of staffing margin decrease from the enterprise mix kind of held steady. The issue at that time was more perm. Perm was coming in softer and was driving a bit of that GP margin further decrease year-over-year. As we walk into the Q1 here, I think the story is perm actually has stabilized.

Perm actually came in a little bit better sequentially than the Q4 . That really wasn't the driver. Getting back to the staffing, really what happened in the Q1 , and the Q1 is traditionally when you will start to see maybe some of the bench impacts from the bench countries, and that's where absenteeism and sickness has a bit of a role. We saw an outsized impact on that in the Q1 . That went against us on the staffing line. That drove roughly somewhere 10 basis points-20 basis points of additional headwind. As Jonas said, our growth was very strong. That growth is predominantly enterprise. That growth came in a bit stronger and drove a little bit more pressure on just the averaging of the mix shift. I'd say that's really what's happening and that's what we're seeing right now.

Enterprise continues to be the strongest part of the demand, and that's how I'd characterize what we're seeing. As you do see in my guide, going from Q1 to Q2, we do see it strengthening. That is after we remove the drag associated with the bench issues in the Q1 , which are traditionally more of a winter phenomenon as we move into the Q2 .

Kartik Mehta
Executive Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, Northcoast Research

Jack, just to make sure. You don't think it's a structural issue right now, it's just more of a timing issue and maybe seasonality issue because of the bench countries?

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

That's correct, Kartik. Pricing is always very competitive, but at this point, we continue to think pricing is rational. It's predominantly a mix shift with enterprise being the strongest demand at the current time.

Kartik Mehta
Executive Managing Director, Principal, and Director of Research, Northcoast Research

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird. Your line is open.

Mark Marcon
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

All right, good morning. Jonas, early in your remarks, you talked about the strengthening that you're seeing in Europe, and I'm wondering if you could just provide a little bit more color and also what you're hearing from your European colleagues, with regards to any concerns around the impact of the war and whether you think that strengthening can continue, and then I've got a follow-up on the restructuring.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Hey, good morning, Mark. Yeah, no, we've been very encouraged with the improvement that we've seen in a number of our countries in Europe. Largely you could say that Southern Europe continues to be very strong in a number of markets. You've seen our results in Italy, again, the market-leading, very strong growth. It's our third biggest market globally, so we're very pleased with that, but also other countries. Very pleased also to see France come back to flat and Northern Europe continue to improve. Still a lot of work to do for us in Northern Europe, but we're encouraged with the progress that we're making. I think as you see our guide into the Q2 , you see we expect that improvement to continue.

A lot of that is underpinned by what we briefly mentioned earlier, which is this economic resilience, the labor market resilience, the improvement in PMIs. In all of our major markets today, PMI is above the expansionary level, so above 50, which has been a long time coming, and we can see that. Despite the uncertainty, despite the volatility that companies are experiencing, they have become adapted to be agile in this environment. They are interested and believe that this volatility and these uncertainties will subside, and they need to continue to move their business forward. We're very pleased to see that they're doing that with us to a greater degree in the Q1 as well, and looking good also into the Q2 .

As it relates to the events in the Middle East this time, it's really too early to assess if there will be a broader impact. Today, we don't see an effect on customers, and we've been really encouraged by the resilience and adaptation to the rapidly changing environment more broadly. Companies have gotten used to a volatile environment, and they are looking past the noise to the signals, what they need to achieve as a business, and they are moving forward. So far, as you can tell from our guide, we're not seeing and including any other effects, which of course we're monitoring. Should anything happen, of course, we will take the actions that you've seen us take in the past. We have an experienced management team. We are used to managing in this environment.

As you can see from our results, we're executing with discipline and adjusting to any changes that we see happen. You had a follow-up question for Jack?

Mark Marcon
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Yeah. For you, in terms of just the restructuring, you mentioned the charges that you're anticipating through the end of this year. Do you foresee further restructuring charges going into 2027 and 2028? How should investors think about the cash flow impacts of those restructuring charges, and the timing of those? As it relates to the savings, from a timing perspective, when we talk about the $200 million, would that basically be kind of a run rate savings towards the end of 2028, or could we expect all of those savings to actually hit in 2028? What percentage of that would you actually expect to drop down to the EBITDA line as opposed to potentially being redeployed for other uses?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Hey, Mark, that is definitely a Jack question. You managed to work in five questions into that slot. Jack, take it from here.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

No, Mark, thanks for the question, Mark. Obviously this is a big program for us. I understand the questions on the charges. The way I would answer it is, if you look at that split that I provided for 2026, yes, there is severance in the restructuring in the mix. A part of it, and a big part of it is the program transformation costs as well. As we look at the rest of 2026, it's basically 1/3 restructuring and 2/3 program. As I mentioned, that's lower than the run rate in the Q1 . The Q1 , we had a bit more restructuring, that included Europe, of course, and some other things. As you think ahead to 2027, I would say in terms of the program cost, that will continue, maybe even be a bit slightly higher.

Restructuring at this stage is a little too early to tell, and I'll give further guidance on that as we get through 2026. There's a couple different variables there. If the environment stays very static and stable as it is today, then you should expect restructuring will increase. If we start to see some good recovery trends, then it could be very different as we redeploy people into higher growth processes. That could reduce restructuring as we go to the rest of the world after 2026. A bit too early, but with all of that, kind of getting at the heart of your question, we're managing this very carefully, based on cash and resources, and we will continue to do that. We continue to be very focused on improved free cash flow for the full year, and we're going to balance that.

As I said in the prepared remarks, the ongoing cost reduction savings are going a long way to fund these activities, and that's going to continue to be our playbook as we go forward. A very careful balance.

Mark Marcon
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

I guess getting to the heart of the question, let's say we're in a constant run rate. By the end of 2028, with these programs being put in place, how should investors think about what's a reasonable EBITDA margin target for 2028? Obviously, you're not giving guidance, but if we're just taking a look at this program, theoretically, how should we think about it?

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Yeah, good point. I meant to answer that part of the question as well, Mark, so thanks for the reminder. To answer your question, we anticipate the full $200 million coming in in 2028. Not run rate in the Q4 of 2028 for the full year, based on the work we're doing this year and next year. That will flip to a $200 million run rate savings in 2028. As I mentioned, a little too early to anticipate if there's additional restructuring that runs into 2028. We'll give updates on that in the future. As we think about the impact of the program, that is what we anticipate to be the benefit to the cost structure. In terms of the guidance on, I guess, the financial target that we continue to be firmly committed to the 4.5%-5%, as we've said in the past.

You can do the math on this, but if you just apply the $200 million to where we've been the last four quarters on a run rate basis, basically that adds 110 basis points to our EBITDA margin in isolation. Right away, if I look at last year, we're running at about 2% adjusted EBITDA margin. Add 110 basis points to that, just in this environment, in this current environment. If we get operational leverage on a stronger recovery, our track record shows that if we start to get a strong recovery, we get very good additional operational leverage. We saw that going from 2020 to 2021, where our EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points and then expanded another 40 basis points the year after as the recovery took hold.

That's the operational leverage additional part of it. In isolation, this will go a long way into accelerating our path towards that EBITDA margin commitment.

Mark Marcon
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Terrific. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

George Tong
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to touch on the manufacturing environment specifically. You highlighted how manufacturing is strengthening, particularly across Europe. Can you provide country-specific details on the manufacturing landscape and drivers of the improvement in those countries?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, George. Yeah, as you heard me say earlier, you can see the manufacturing environment improving across both the U.S. and Europe, by looking at the PMI. We've really seen that be a positive evolution over the last three months or so. I think that gives you an idea that there are different sectors, of course, that are stronger than others. One sector that we feel very good about is aerospace and defense, where we have a very strong position in Europe, and we expect that this is going to grow in terms of the share of our business with the increased spending on defense. You can see a number of areas that are doing better. There are a number of industries that are struggling a bit, like automotive. Logistics has been a bit weak in some of the markets across Europe.

More broadly speaking, the economy is resilient, the labor markets are resilient, and PMI from a manufacturing perspective is improving, both in Europe and in the United States.

George Tong
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

George, you asked about geographies a little bit. George, maybe I'll just give a really quick some color on the geography. If I just look at our Manpower business, which obviously is very tied to manufacturing, as we talked about, the U.S. was up 5%. In the quarter, actually a bit impacted by weather. Extreme weather in the quarter probably was about a 1% drag, so it would've been about 6%. The punchline there is continued strong progress, momentum on manufacturing sector. France, as we mentioned, its predominantly Manpower business moved to flat. Italy, very strong manufacturing, contribution up 8%. Spain, very, very strong growth. You see the double-digit growth that we had in Spain as well. I'd say pretty broad-based, as Jonas said, from a geography standpoint as well, and that's what's really contributing to that global Manpower business, 6% growth in the quarter overall.

George Tong
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Your line is open.

Ronan Kennedy
VP, Barclays

Hi. Good morning. This is Ronan Kennedy in for Manav. Thank you for taking my questions. If I'm not mistaken, you referenced $200 million of incremental revenue in France from AI-powered sales. How scalable is this globally, and which markets represent the next largest opportunity? Beyond that top-line contribution, how is AI changing win rates, pricing discipline, customer lifetime values, and when can we expect to see this reflected in margins?

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Ronan. This is Becky, and I'll take that for you. First to France specifically. We launched an AI-powered sales targeting engine, that basically says what's happening in the market in real time, where do we have strengths in our capabilities. We match the two, and that's what has demonstrated our revenue growth there. We will scale to 50%, roughly of our markets by year-end. You'll see that sequence come out as we have future earnings calls. To your next question around how AI overall, as you heard in my prepared remarks, we are very active in that space, in two parts.

One, internally applying it to our processes, as you heard me talk about with very new strategic partnerships in the AI space with Hubert, embedded in our PowerSuite and our recruiting processes, sales targeting, but also how we apply AI externally to create net new products. The SoundHound partnership I talked about, that's focused on Experis in the U.S., is a real breakthrough in our industry. We're leveraging the fact I mentioned on the last earnings call that we have limited exposure to coders, which is a place that has been impacted. We are shifting that limited exposure to a tailwind for AI in our business by bringing agents and humans together to deliver value for our clients. We're active on a two-part view with AI in our business and for our clients for new products.

Ronan Kennedy
VP, Barclays

That's very helpful, Becky. Thank you. May I confirm on the element of question on expectation for margin implication?

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Yes. Thank you, Ronan. I meant to answer that for you. Yeah, it's early, Ronan, so early days for us. We're very encouraged, one, by our capabilities to bring these tools in quickly, to form strategic partnerships in the AI space. We're encouraged by the margin potential that our early deals have shown, but early days, and we expect this to be able to scale, and I'll keep you updated as it does.

Ronan Kennedy
VP, Barclays

Thank you, Becky. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist. Your line is open.

Tobey Sommer
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist

Thanks. I wanted to ask you a related question on your AI targeting tool as well as your systems investments and reimagining. Where do you think this puts you in terms of market share and, let's say, the lead on reimagining versus others after three or four years of declining market? There are probably a lot of boards and management teams in front of a whiteboard trying to reimagine. Where do you think you are relative to their visions of the future and actions?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Well, thanks, Tobey. As we talked about, we started this journey of creating a global data infrastructure, really clearing our technological debt and replacing it with modern cloud-based SaaS platforms that we have now deployed globally, covering 90% of our revenues and 80% of our back-office transformation. That is unique in our industry at our scale. Because we're doing this on single platforms. We have a global data lake that is covering 100 billion data points, and all of our applications are putting the data into the same data lake. That has opened up this opportunity for us to really think about our business and how we run our business in a very different way. We have built experience and capability, of course, going through the back-office transformation and re-engineering processes there.

As Becky will talk more about in a minute, how we're now starting to see AI have a bigger impact, both in terms of how we interact with clients, how we interact with the talent. The kind of insights that we can now bring to our clients that provide added value is what's really, really exciting to us. That's what's given us the confidence to say that this is something that we think can really reshape our industry, can drive faster and higher fill rates, and also drive further efficiencies. Becky, if you take it from there.

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. Thanks, Tobey. I laughed a little bit in how you asked the question about whiteboards because I've spent a lot of time on whiteboards lately, reimagining how this business can run in a totally different way. The question is, how do we do what we do in a totally different way and add more value to our candidates and our talent and our clients? We are looking at AI as a growth and productivity multiplier. We need that two-party equation. We're looking to automate what we can and should, and keep human what we know our clients and our candidates want to keep human, with a very heavy dose of governance on top of it to make sure that we meet the needs and demands of our clients and our candidates. We're encouraged. You asked about where we are in leadership.

Obviously, we're not privy to what everyone is doing, but we feel very good that we are moving with speed, in months versus years, and we've been doing this for a horizon.

Tobey Sommer
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist

If I could ask, if you feel like you're in a good spot relative to speed and sort of the pace in which you're executing against your own vision, who's losing if you, in fact, are winning?

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. I would say, again, I don't quite know how to answer that question directly because what we focus on is our winning versus other people losing. Winning, to us, is actually delivering more value to our clients and keeping our candidates central to our efforts. At the same time, making sure our employees are prepared for this new horizon. You heard me say in our prepared remarks, we've invested significantly internally, in time and of our people, to make sure they're trained on using AI tools. You've not heard a number from us on 80% of our workforce is now using AI on a regular basis. I would say to us, that feels like winning.

Tobey Sommer
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Your line is open.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Thanks for taking the questions. Just one quick one for me. I was wondering if you could talk about what you think U.S. sounds like you're getting overall.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Hey, Trevor, sorry. We could not hear any of that question. Could you please repeat the question? You were breaking up.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Sorry. Can you hear me now, sir?

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

No, we can't hear you.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Sorry about that. Is that better from here?

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

A little better.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Yep.

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Try again, Trevor.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Sorry about that. Hopefully, this is better. Thank you for taking the question. I was trying to ask about the overall environment for Experis in the U.S. Sounds like you're expecting really positive chapter.

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. Trevor, this is Becky. Unfortunately, you dropped out again after a very strong few words. I believe you're asking about the environment for Experis in the U.S., and I'll answer that, and you might try to move to a better place so we can hear you better. For Experis in the U.S., first let me take a step back on the question that's top of mind, which is impact of AI on that business. Overall for AI, we feel continued encouragement by the resilience of our Manpower business, as you heard both Jack and Jonas refer to in the face of a lot of AI conversations. For our tech clients, they are cautious on AI spend. They're being careful about where on their project spend. They're being careful about where they're investing their money, and thoughtful and cautious and a little slow to say yes.

For Experis, specifically to your question, we've been very encouraged. We have seen our pipeline grow, specifically in healthcare, in life sciences, over the quarter. We exit the quarter with a robust pipeline. We have seen our clients turn to us for advisory. Again, as mentioned, when we talked about the partnership with SoundHound, we're turning AI into a tailwind for us. We are actually in a product now. We are selling a product that is agents plus humans. That is the future that we see for Experis here in the U.S.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

All right. Thank you, Becky. I think that was basically the spirit of my question. Hopefully, you can hear me better now.

Becky Frankiewicz
President and Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup

If we can't.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Thank you. Maybe just to very quickly follow up. It sounds like you're expecting the U.S. to go back to positive year-over-year. Are you also expecting Experis to go back to positive year-over-year, or would that still be slightly down in Q2?

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Yeah, no. Trevor, great question. You're right. In the guide, I have the U.S., I said, going to positive growth. That is definitely a part of the Americas' revenue growth that we're seeing. Experis, we see getting very close to flattish. Revenue trend in Q2 overall. As I mentioned, what's really happening there is, you see the healthcare project work, those go lives, have created a lot of bumpiness year-over-year. That pretty much works its way through as we go into the Q2 . As I mentioned, on an underlying basis, the business actually has been quite stable. We start to anniversary some of that and move closer to a flattish type result in Q2. We have seen some good stability in the business. Looking at the weeklies, we're encouraged by some of the consultant headcount increases, and we're taking that into Q2.

Trevor Romeo
Equity Research Analyst, William Blair

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS. Your line is open.

Josh Chan
Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Hi. Good morning, Jonas, Becky, Jack. Thanks for taking my question. On the savings, could you just give more color in terms of what is actually being saved to result in the dollar savings? Then relatedly, conceptually, why would the savings be higher in the front office than the back office? Thank you.

Jack McGinnis
EVP and CFO, ManpowerGroup

Yeah. Happy to talk about that. I think if you think about the savings, it's going to really follow a lot of what we've already done on the back office. The way to think about it, Josh, is, if we had separate streams and workflow activities in every major business in terms of some of the historical back-office processes, and then we move into global business service centers like we've talked about with our Porto Center in Europe for our European locations, what we're able to do is centralize a lot of work into those hubs, and that is reducing a lot of the infrastructure that we need in-country. That's going to continue to be that model on the back office applied to the front office processes.

On the back office, it's been the finance and IT-related functions that have improved their efficiency as a result of this centralization and standardization. On the front office side, it's going to be recruiting, it's going to be sales, it's going to be service delivery. When you look at the size of those functions, they're bigger. It's one of the biggest parts of the business, right, as we think about the front office opportunity. That's what's going to drive it. You're going to hear us talk a lot more about. You've heard us talk a lot about our back-office global business service centers. You're going to hear us talk more and more. That's going to be a really critical, important part of our centralization and standardization going forward, and that's going to benefit our efficiency in our major businesses going forward.

That's the way to think about it. It's continuing what we've already done on the back office through similar themes and applying that to big populations of the front office. Of course, underlying all of that, as you heard from Jonas and Becky, will be automation. Automation is a key element of all of this, and the opportunity of agentic AI being infused in that is going to be a real efficiency driver on top of that. All of that is how we get to those significant front office costs that you see broken out.

Josh Chan
Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Thank you for the call, Jack.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jonas Prising for closing remarks.

Jonas Prising
Chairman and CEO, ManpowerGroup

Thanks, Michelle, and thanks everyone for participating in our earnings call this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again at our Q2 earnings call in July. Until then, thanks very much. Look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

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