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Barclays 18th Annual Americas Select Conference

May 6, 2026

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you for being here. For those of you who don't know me, my name is Manav Patnaik. I cover business and information services of Barclays. We're pleased to kick off day two, for us at least, here with Moody's CFO, Noémie Heuland. Thank you for being here, Noémie.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Thank you. Thanks, Manav.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Maybe Noémie, I figured the best place to start would be, I think, last year when you came here was your first time in London and you started. It's been about two years now.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yep.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Maybe just some of your reflections and thoughts over the last two years. I know maybe when you first started things were, you know, you're in a nice stable Moody's company. Now things have completely changed but just your thoughts.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah, it's always been a pretty moving environment for the past five, six years, so we're getting used to first quarter being a little bit hectic. It's been, yeah, two years. I think we're fortunate to have joined at a very exciting time for Moody's. We have very strong momentum and deep currents in our debt capital markets across both the U.S. and Europe and Asia Pac. Moody's is a big role about the different dynamics between public and private markets. A lot of very strong funding needs that underpin the demand for credit and ratings. AI-related infrastructure, maturity walls are very strong. A lot of exciting sight. We've invested a lot in our ratings business to support that demand.

On Moody's Analytics, it's been growing fast over the past 10, 15 years and we have now completed the integration of most of the acquired entities and we're excited to join, to have a new president joining to help us scale further, and a lot of opportunities with our proprietary data sets. I'm sure we'll talk about AI and what that means for us but it's been definitely a very exciting time. On the culture side of this, as you said in, I think in a recent note, Rob has been really impulsing a lot of change and evolution and automation of a lot of things we do and that's been just a great experience so far.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. If I could just spend two minutes on the culture point.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Firstly on Rob, I mean, I think one of the things that have stood out, like you said, is the tech forward change almost it feels like Moody's has gone through from what was traditionally a rating agency. Can you just elaborate a bit more on that and, you know, some internal anecdote perhaps on how that change has happened?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. I was surprised coming in two years ago. I spent most of my career in technology companies. Moody's was actually very advanced in the development of automation tools in both sides of our businesses, are really leveraging technology to improve what we do internally but also how we serve customers and issuers. We had rolled out at the time Copilots across the entire enterprise, we wanted to really have everybody experiment with the tool, make sure they were familiar with it, how to get their workflow better and serve their customers better. Now we're at the phase where we're scaling a lot of those exciting projects. That was a pretty good surprise.

Everybody was coding and using those tools, which I wasn't, quite frankly, expecting coming at Moody's. A lot of focus on continuous improvement, and I think that's been really interesting.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. You mentioned it here, on your call you introduced your new, Moody's Analytics head that you're bringing in.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Maybe just a little bit more about her, because I know when you first took over, you were also a little bit more focused on analytics. How's that gonna work?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Christina Kosmowski is the new CEO for Moody's Analytics. She's joining in June. She has a very strong pedigree in technology company. She very strong in customer success and customer experience. She is what we call customer obsessed which I think is going to be really exciting for us as we are scaling and as we, you know, move into new territories with the monetization of AI, evolution in go-to-market, evolution in our partnerships. That we're very excited about her joining. We also had very stable leadership, very strong foundation that she can build on, quite exciting.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Let's move to the business. Usually with Moody's you would think we'll start with the ratings but I'm gonna start with Analytics first.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

We'll start with yesterday's headlines around, you know, Claude putting out a bunch of new financial tools. Initially, the whole sector, including yourself, sold off a bit but then you guys rebounded because news broke that you guys were providing some of the data. Let's just start there specifically, if you can just give us some details.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah, we have a partnership strategy with a lot of different providers, including Anthropic. About, a couple weeks ago we announced that we have an MCP app that is available on the Claude desktop environment. And what an MCP app is if you think about our content, our proprietary data, our insights and models, we typically have distributed those in the past through data dumps, a SaaS platform, APIs to, for customers to be able to consume those data sets directly in their environment.

It's just a natural evolution of that, where we now have enabled customers who have, using Claude or onto OpenAI or other large language model to consume that data directly in their environment to remove some of the friction associated with having to log into a separate website and get the data dump, and then re-plug into the Claude or OpenAI or other environment. The MCP app with Anthropic is a step further. It's actually our You can also have our own data separately but you can consume in the desktop environment, in the cloud environment, the automated credit memo agent as well as the KYC agent, which are pre-configured workflows.

What this does is really synthesize, organize the data that you're consuming in those environment, and also enables you to be more efficient in your token consumption which I think is a very strong advantage for our customers. You will see us including more agents in this MCP app. That's the first step. I think that was well-received by customers. We have our customers in pilot phase who are actually paying to use those tools and getting some significant efficiency gains as a result of that.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. In terms of the content that you're providing, including yesterday, like, what all content is available through these MCPs or MCP apps?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

The MCP, if you think about a traditional either an API feed or an MCP, most of our content is available. If you think about just the MCP app, which is the agentic workflow that we have built over the past two years, the automated credit memo agent and the KYC agents are available today on the MCP app that is fed through the cloud environment, and we expect to release more of that.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. You know, talking about efficiency, token usage, et cetera, maybe just taking a step back, how should we think about the revenue model or the revenue sharing, whatever it might be today, when you, when you sign these agreements?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

It's, a couple things I'd say. It's early days. I think we are all, you know, thinking with our partners about how best to monetize the opportunity. We keep the direct relationship with the end customers, there's no revenue share agreement yet. We're not subcontractor of those large language model providers. Our customers have a direct licensing agreement with Moody's, and as a matter of fact, when they call out the agents, or the data, you could see the Moody's branding and interface, and that directs you to our environment. That's the first thing I'd say. In terms of monetization, we have customers are paying a premium to access those MCP apps and content right now.

What is likely to happen over time as we're, you know, getting the learnings from those early experimentation and early pilots is we'll likely have a flavor of a consumption pricing with our customers. I wanna be careful because our customers have told us, and we also like the recurring subscription-based revenue that is very stable and predictable b ut we also wanna account and benefit and make sure we monetize the peaks of data consumptions that are gonna be resulting from increased usage and consumption of our content through those applications. You'll have a likely a base fee with consumption-based pricing on top, but we're still experimenting and getting some learnings from those pilots.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Obviously, we talked about Claude and Anthropic, are you LLM agnostic? Just can you talk about some of your other partnerships and strategy?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

I talked a bit earlier about our historical distribution channels where we had either a direct API feed to our customers' environment. If you think about large banks, they've always consumed our content through their own applications. If you move down the tier a little bit, you have our customers in Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks who are consuming our content together with prepackaged workflows because they don't have the IT, you know, firepower to build their own things themselves. We've already had a pretty agnostic distribution channel depending on where the customer is in their journey and how they wanna consume our content, and that will continue to be true with the large language models. We have partnership with Anthropic, OpenAI.

We have partnership with Microsoft, and also AWS and so on and so on.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Just to dig deeper on some of the moats that are, you know, either debated or that need some clarification, maybe you could just help start us by setting up Moody's Analytics in the mix, the three different segments and what's in there.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

You have Decision Solutions, which is about 45% of ARR, so Annualized Recurring Revenue. 98% of Moody's Analytics revenue is recurring, so that's why I like to talk about the Annualized Recurring Revenue as a good proxy for how we think about the business. Decision Solutions has been growing the fastest. This is where you have the workflows for banks, insurance, as well as the KYC. For banks, the flagship product is our CreditLens offering, which has grown in the high teens in the recent past. That is what I referred to earlier is for T ier 2 and Tier 3 banks to perform loan origination workflows all the way from, you know, underwriting to portfolio monitoring and so on.

We have our insurance models, catastrophic models that are fed on industry claims data over decades, so it's really proprietary models based on data we have curated over time. KYC workflows that leverage our Orbis data estate, as well as the politically exposed people database. That's in Decision Solution. In Research & Insights, we have, which is about 29% of the ARR, this is where you have CreditView, now called Moody's OneView, the models, ratings, probability of default model, economic research that is used by banks to do their stress testing. The models have been calibrated over a decade by give-get data consortium, so very proprietary as well.

Data and Information for the rest of the ARR, which is where we have the pure data feeds from the rating agency as well as the rating fee the data feeds from Orbis that we feed into a client's environment directly.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Okay. Let's start where you ended then on the Orbis data set. You know, there is some debate there because a lot of the raw data is available publicly. You know, there's some partnerships, some licenses. Can you just help us sort through all that nuances and why you think that's still moated?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. If I think about Orbis is a private company database that has over 600 million records now. That's grown from 300 million when I joined, we continue to invest and expand the coverage and the breadth of the data set. I'll start with the first layer, which is the firmographic data, which is, one could argue, available more broadly on public sources. We take that and we curate it, and we make it relevant for your specific use case, let me give you a few examples as well. If you wanna know what is relevant for a particular entity that you're doing business with, you can use some of that firmographic data to be connected with the other data sets that are proprietary that you're using to make that assessment.

When you pass the firmographic. By the way, if you think about what customers are tapping into when they go into Orbis database, we have a lot of data into that. This is not so much for the firmographic. That's a small portion of it. The majority is for what I'm going to talk about next which is the curated corporate hierarchy mapping that is real. We spent, you know, decades curating those, and we have license rights and IP agreements with registries in about 800 jurisdictions. We have license rights, we have IP, and then we take that raw data from those registries, and we contextualize it. We Semantic definition is also important.

A dissolution doesn't mean the same thing in Germany as in other jurisdictions, so we wanna make sure our customer ingest and have context around those data sets.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Some of these data licenses that you talked about. One of the debates obviously is LLMs can get the data and do it, but are your license partners opening the data up more or isn't it?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

No, actually, that's the interesting trends that we've observed over the past two years, is registries are reducing the number of partners that they're monetizing those data sets with. Again, it's not just about the raw data, it's about all the context that we have built on top of it. The entity mapping, the corporate resolution, that's very important. If you think about the use cases for those data sets, if Barclays wants to do a KYC, you don't go with good-enough data that you scrape on the web, right? It has to be auditable, traceable, documented, and then we have auditors of our customers who come in and audit our data sets. That's, I think, where the value is beyond just the context that it provides.

It's also trusted content that's been, you know, trusted for decades.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

The corporate hierarchy aspect that you point out, that's why people come to Orbis more. I, my understanding is right now LLMs are not good at doing that but is the moat there more the context that you just provided or the data?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

It's the context layer that we bring on to give you all the associated risk aspect or corporate links for a particular given entity. I think Shivani, my IR lead, has a great example that I think is very powerful. We a few years ago there was a school district in New Jersey who was using a bus company registered in California, and that company had a linkage three a few layers above by a Russian oligarch. They weren't allowed to do business with that particular party, Orbis was the only way for that school district to find out, that's was actually a very strong argument for why, you know, large language models or other public sources cannot go into that level of detail.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Just one layer back that I thought about was, you know, I think whenever Claude or one of you guys put out a tool, they think, "Okay, they're coming after our space." When you guys partner with them, I mean, they are partnering with you, right? What does that discussion look like? I mean, they need you to help.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

We don't train those large language models with our IP. That's a very important part. If you think about what a large language model does, is it provides some, you know, workflow support on actual context and data. Those large language models do not have that contextualized information and data that we have, I think that's a natural partnership for us. We're not also trying to compete in the UI or front office. That's not what we do. We pride ourselves in having, you know, trusted, what Mike and Rob like to call decision-grade, data sets, and insights that then get used into different applications depending on where you are in your journey. That's where our strength is.

Again, we're not trying to compete in the front office or UI space.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. If we can move to Decision Solutions. You know, when you were describing the sub-segments, you mentioned workflows a lot. Nowadays workflows is a risky word, I guess. Can you just help, you know, how moated are those workflows or is there something more to it than that?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

If I'm going to go through the main ones. Lending in banking, we typically cater to Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks who are looking to automate their loan origination systems. We acquired a company called Numerated about two years ago that had some AI-native embedded features, like spreading financials, automated credit memo, and things along those lines. We've embedded now all the Numerated capabilities in our lending package, and we gave some stats about customers upgrading from the legacy package into the new one with a pretty significant price uplift. That's a product that's grown in the high teens with very strong retention rate. We feel pretty good about lending.

If you think about lending and credit underwriting, you don't wanna be the one who using a third-party large language model or an unverified source to come up with your assessment and have this come back and bite you later on. I think we, and again, we're audited by our customers. Our solutions go through a very rigorous regulatory and audit process, and I think that's very important. I'll move to insurance, which we have the main one here is the climate risk assessment models. Again, this model, or these models are, c ould the AI come up with a model? Sure, but the model is fed on data that comes from the industry claims data that we get to train and inform our risk output.

Again, that's used by insurance to do their risk underwriting, so very core to the business of the insurance company, very core to the front office and growth of those insurance companies. Then KYC. This is more like a pre-configured workflow to perform KYC checks, leveraging our Orbis database, leveraging our politically exposed people database as well. Again, if you operate in a regulated industry, you want to make sure you have the right tools and workflows and auditability, traceability. How did you come up with that decision? Where is it recorded? What is your, you know, justification for making that decision? The regulator comes in and audits that, I think that's also another area where we feel quite comfortable.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. On the KYC, we get a lot of questions, too. Maybe first on the dataset. You already talked about Orbis, but can you talk about the politically exposed, the PEP dataset? Like how important that is, how differentiated that is?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. This comes from an acquisition we did a few years ago. We've continuously enriched that politically exposed database. I gave an example earlier about how powerful that was in identifying, you know, sanctions and sanctioned individuals. After the Russia invasion of Ukraine, we had a lot of interest and demand for that politically exposed people database because, again, if you operate in a regulated business or even, you know, you're looking at supply chain or Vendor Risk Management especially, with DORA and things like that, you wanna make sure you have a clear understanding of who you're doing business with from a third-party risk standpoint.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. In KYC as well, and maybe it's a broader question, right? The view is AI can, you know, scour the web, find out who's exposed, whatever it might be. Those tools that can be more efficient, are you guys using those too, to make yourself better, disrupt yourself?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. We are actually using it in our procurement department now. For our own customer and front office, we're using it but we're starting using it now also in Vendor Risk Management. As you know, we operate in Europe. We are regulated by DORA, so we have to comply with those regulations and our tools actually help us do that more effectively.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Just to round up the segment then, the Research & Insights part of it, I don't think there's any debate. It's your ratings research proprietary. Anything else you would want to go through?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah, credit research. The other thing I would say, we hear a lot about economic research which is a part of it. Hey, you know, economic data, you can find this on the web and other publicly available sources. The one thing to note, though, is those economic forecasts and research are used by banks to do stress testing. If you listen to Mark Zandi, who's our economist at Moody's Analytics, he's very careful about when he talks about recession odds and other risks from an economic standpoint because he knows that the minute he passes a certain threshold, this is gonna be used by banks to adjust their stress test. It's pretty serious. Again, things that are, we think is very valuable.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Before we leave the segment, since you are CFO, I gotta ask about margins. Can you just help us with, you know, since you've come, of course, the trajectory has improved and just remind us of your goals and how you get there and some of the moving pieces?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. Moody's Analytics margin, we have a medium-term target that's by the end of 2027 to be in the mid- to- high 30s. We're well on the way. We have made some significant improvements again, in the first quarter. We started at about 30% when I joined. That was after a lot of the acquisitions that we had made, investments to be ready for AI and make sure we had the right, again, context layer in our data. We've improved significantly. We're now in the 33, 33 range, and we're again aiming to be in the mid- to- high 30s by 2027, with about 150 basis points improvement again this year.

We're doing that by, there's a few things that are going on in M&A, and not a lot of it yet has to do with deploying AI at scale in that segment. There's a significant opportunity beyond that. It's really about resource allocation. We came to the realization we had acquired or ingested and integrated most of the entities we acquired. We simplified the operating model. We looked at, you know, having one product organization, go to market, make sure we have the thoughtful allocation of resources, to drive areas of growth in lending, KYC, and data. That's really what's been driving the growth.

We also have deployed AI in customer support, as you would expect, a pretty, you know, obvious use case at first that has allowed us to get some efficiencies, and we're looking at product development life cycle, all the engineering and product development with AI, and that's very promising.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Maybe let's use margins and shift into ratings. You know, by any measure, ratings has, you know, very impressive margins. It sounds like AI could help improve that even. Can you just talk about ratings?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. Ratings is operating right now at about 65% margin. I mean, what we like to say is being volume agnostic. We have a medium-term target, you know, in that ballpark. Obviously, if you have a year like 2022 where revenue went down 33%, you're not gonna make it up through the efficiencies and the automation. We're trying to be volume agnostic within a certain band of issuance. We do that. They started way before I joined, actually. We have automated a lot of their workflow that an analyst goes through before the actual human rating committee and assessment happens.

Things about, like, spreading financial statements, getting data from different sources, putting those into the methodology template, running all those workflows has been really automated such that the analyst can spend a lot more time talking with issuers around, you know, what's happening in their sector. Last year around Liberation Day, we had a peak of demand for our analysts to really make sense of the noise beyond the headline. That's really what's been driving a lot of the margin expansion. We're continuing to invest though in ratings. I talked about a lot of the funding needs and the current in the market. We wanna make sure we have the analytical capacity and skill set to address those demands. As you can imagine, it's a long-term workflow, workforce planning.

You don't switch on and off and, you know, adjust the analytical skill set overnight. We've been able to increase the load of our analysts by automating a lot of the processes that precede the time where they sit down together and think about the rating.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. If you can just touch on issuance and trends and so forth, maybe first on a high level before we touch on a few specifics. If you could just help us appreciate what happened last quarter and what the current trends look like?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah, we had a very strong quarter in Moody's Ratings. I'm not going to repeat the data from the first quarter but hyperscaler issuance was very strong. The five hyperscalers have issued as much debt as they did in 2025, we expect this trend to continue. That was a strong driver for investment-grade issuance in the first quarter. We had interestingly, in terms of if you think about the macro environment and the geopolitical disruption, in March alone, the 80% of the activity was concentrated in six days. What this tells you is when the markets are open and when it's a risk on day, there's demand and transactions happen and there's no constraint. We'll have to see how that evolves.

That was a very strong driver of growth. In the first quarter, M&A activity was also very sustained in bank loan. We talked to our banking partners again recently, and they see a very strong pipeline of M&A transaction. That's, we're pretty pleased with the growth in our ratings business in the first quarter.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. On M&A, I know, you know, in the prior years as well, there's always been, you know, fits and starts clearly. What have your assumptions for M&A been for the year? Clearly seems like AI, there's upside b ut on M&A, how do we think of it?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. We've guided to about 40%. We've considered about 40% increase in announced M&A. That's our assumption. Before we came to the market in April, we talked to our banking advisors, and they haven't seen a slowdown in the pipeline. We've held on to that, and we saw a very strong first quarter in that regard. We always talk about pent-up demand in M&A. We've talked about this for a while. Our rating assessment services which is a leading indicator for M&A.

An issuer comes to us ahead of a transaction and says, "If I do these types of financing or if I structure the deal that way, what would that impact be on my ratings?" That business has been performing very strongly in the second half of 2025 and again first quarter. That's, again, a good leading indicator.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Private credit, obviously another big topic out there. Maybe just high level from, you know, all your insights at the rating agency. Is this just a headline issue? Is this a potential systemic risk, structural risk? How do you guys look at that?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

You're referring to a few idiosyncratic events that have a lot to do with fraud or other types of considerations. Private credit has been a strong growth driver for us of a very small base. We rate about $80 trillion of stock of public debt, so private credit is much lower than that. As you can imagine, it's grown 80% in the first quarter. I think what those headlines bring is a flight to quality, request for transparency, signposts, indicators and benchmarks, which we're very well positioned to provide. We have a lot of interaction with the private credit players.

As a matter of fact, we had two credit conferences, in the past two weeks. One in New York and one in London, where we had prominent leaders in private credit speak and interact with Marc Pinto, our head of private credit for the ratings franchise. You could see really there's demand. We start to see insurance companies or those guys disclosing how much of their portfolio is actually rated. There's a demand from investors about signposts and quality, which I think we're well-positioned to serve.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. I know you've talked about as a company focusing on private credit across the company. On the ratings side, it's pretty obvious it's, you know, the different categories. How do we think about private credit and the opportunity on the Moody's Analytics side?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. I talked about the credit assessments and the credit models that we provide. We provide that as well. If you're an investor who, you know, want to know the quality of the loans you're invested in or the fund you're invested in, we provide that through Moody's Analytics as well. That gives us the opportunity as those players scale to come and potentially rate those transactions down the road if there's a need for a rating.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. I think one of the initiatives in there has been a partnership with MSCI. Can you talk about overall what that entails and how that's going?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. The partnership with MSCI that we concluded last year, we come in with our probability of default models, our credit estimates. Then they have the best, most comprehensive database of loans. We combine those two to provide, you know, a probability of defaults and credit assessments on those portfolios. It's a revenue share agreement, and that's going pretty well.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Is there another leg where they could do private indexation on the Orbis datasets?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

That could be. We're exploring different avenues of, on the partnership, and that could be one.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Okay, got it. Maybe in the last five minutes or so, just let's talk about capital allocation.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Actually, one step back. On the ratings, just to wrap that up, you know, there's always a lot of different moving pieces. You know, there's a lot of focus on the forest versus the trees. Maybe you can just remind everyone of the long-term.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Model for ratings to wrap it up there.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

It's a business that, if you look over the cycles, that's grown in a mid to high single digit over time. Obviously, there's years like last year where it was significantly higher and this year as well. The algorithm, first and foremost, GDP is the first pillar of that, first block of that algorithm. It fuels asset formation. Take GDP growth, then you have the value that we provide to issuers and we've recently updated our study to shows the savings on the coupon for an issuer that has a ratings versus a bond that doesn't have a rating. That's 2 or 3 percentage points. The last 1 to 2 percentage points of emerging market trends. Here you have contribution of private credit, domestic market.

We have investments in Latin America, Asia Pac and affiliates to serve those domestic markets that are going to be very important in the next decade. Then digital finance as well, and other emerging trends to get to the high single digit.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Okay, moving to cap allocation. I don't think you've changed a whole lot, just your approach and how you think about how capital allocation priority is set up.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. First and foremost, growth. There's a lot of opportunities to grow both businesses, and I've talked about what those underlying demand drivers are. You know, funding needs, the maturity walls are very healthy. Understanding who you're doing business with, understanding the risk of climate related events on your businesses. We wanna make sure we have investments for that, and we've been investing in acquiring, you know, companies in those different spaces. In terms of M&A, obviously, you know, very thoughtful. We have a pretty good record of strong return on those transactions. We'll continue to be very focused on that. I think the bar is raised. Obviously, if you have asked me a few months ago whether we would be contemplating a very specific workflow for one area, I would have said probably yes.

Now it's maybe a bit of a different answer, focused on data assets and data coverage. The rest is capital return to our shareholders, and we just did a billion and a half of buybacks this quarter in Q1.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Maybe just on the buyback, you obviously did a big number in Q1. We upped the amount for the year. Just the thought process around there, opportunistic.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah. We've been very pleased with what we did in the first quarter to take advantage of the price to increase our buyback. We just divested our regulatory business, and we just closed that transaction on April 30th. We'll use the proceeds to continue on our buyback program, and we'll continue to be opportunistic. I think the good news is we have a lot of flexibility in our capital allocation program because of our operating leverage and our profile. First and foremost, growth, and then making sure we return capital to our shareholders as well.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. I got one more. We do have a few minutes if anybody has any questions, you can put your hands up. Just on M&A, I wanted to touch real quickly. You know, you did mention while we were going through Moody's Analytics, a lot of what you built up has been through M&A.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yep.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

In the next, call it five years, should we be expecting a lot more, even if the bar is higher?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

I think it again will be very thoughtful. We have high hurdle rates in our M&A. There's a whole debate right now on whether software workflow makes sense. I would argue if it's deeply embedded in customer workflows, if it's a vertical that has a lot of value and efficiency gains for the customer with a lot of proprietary data associated with it, I think it's something that definitely should be looked at. Data coverage, we just acquired one year ago, one and half years ago, CAPE Analytics, which is a geospatial data to be used by insurance companies to underwrite their risk on properties. Insurance actually, I was visiting an insurance company in the Midwest last year, and they love it.

They really said that was something we were really expecting you to do. We'll listen to our customers. Some of those ideas come directly from customers, in terms of data integration or tuck-ins. You would expect us to continue to do that.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. I think you had a question.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

Just wait for the mic, if you don't mind.

Speaker 3

Thank you. I'd love to hear a bit more. You get a lot of questions on M&A and the moats there. On MIS, I guess you get a lot fewer questions.

I guess when, you know, when we hear about you putting a lot of financial data and then the credit guys sit in a room, the obvious question is why can't Anthropic hire 300 credit analysts and do that? Can you just make sure we understand, is it the NRSRO certification? How do you think about the moats in MIS?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah

Speaker 3

Why those are so impenetrable?

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Yeah, you're right to say that it rarely comes up as a concern or question. I think people understand and appreciate the value of having the benchmark and the signpost for appreciating the assessing the credit quality of an underlying loan. I think we have experts who are called in and have a dialogue. You talk about large language model and having the analysts crunching data. I think that's the, I would say, the relatively easy part of the job. Where it gets really interesting and where the secret sauce comes in and what our issuers are telling us, and I was an issuer myself, so I interacted with our Moody's analysts as well, is really the depth of understanding of the historical trends of the sector.

We have access to MNPI and things that obviously customers share with us. Our analysts go on site visits. They think about all those infrastructure projects, AI, data center construction. They actually go on site and look at, you know, the construction sites and talk to the engineers. They have a really deep understanding of the business and not only what's happening in a given quarter or a given trend but, like, long term. What does that mean in the long term? The ratings, obviously, are not expected to move from one quarter to the other. It's really that long-term view, I think that's what our issuers value today.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

We got time for one more. We can wrap it up, too. All right, let's just leave it there then. Thank you, Noémie.

Noémie Heuland
CFO, Moody's

Thank you. Thanks a lot.

Manav Patnaik
Analyst, Barclays

We appreciate everybody being here.

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