MarketWise, Inc. (MKTW)
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Emerging Growth Conference 78

Jan 15, 2025

Operator

In addition to overseeing all financial activities, Erik also supports corporate strategy, operations, and value maximization initiatives. Prior to joining MarketWise, Erik spent seven years as CFO of a globally publicly traded telecommunications company, where he played a key role in building and scaling the business, leading the public offering, and guiding a successful exit in 2022. Erik holds a bachelor's degree from Hillsdale College and is a graduate of Harvard Business School, the Advanced Management Program. So happy to welcome you to the conference today. Erik, welcome.

Erik Mikels
CFO, MarketWise

Great. Thank you, Anna. Great to be with you this morning. First, a couple of housekeeping items. Please read our disclaimer on page two. The information contained herein should be reviewed in conjunction with our SEC filings on Form 10-Q and 10-K. Lastly, today's presentation has been posted on our website at marketwise.com under the Shareholders Resources section. I will kick things off with some background, and then we will fit 25 years of operating history into about 25 minutes and then plan to leave time for questions at the end. MarketWise was founded in 1999 with a mission to level the playing field for self-directed investors. We are a multi-brand, 100% digital platform that provides premium financial research and software tools to investors. We are a direct-to-consumer subscription model business with delivery across a variety of platforms. Our purpose is to empower, educate, and enrich our customers.

Our vision is to become the leading financial service platform for self-directed investors. As we will cover in this presentation, MarketWise has experienced significant change over the past few years. What has remained consistent over time is our core operating principles. These principles are to provide great investing ideas in a clear, understandable manner and to treat our subscribers the way we would want to be treated if the roles were reversed. If we do this well, we will develop long-term relationships with our customers, which will result in a stable base of recurring revenues. You can see these principles on the walls of our offices in Baltimore, Maryland, and you can also hear these principles come through when you talk to our more than 400 employees. Moving here to a company timeline.

As mentioned previously, the company was founded 25 years ago with our Stansberry Research brand. Steady organic growth, coupled with a series of acquisitions, led to significant growth over the next 20 years. The company then experienced an explosion of growth during the COVID-related market boom of 2020 and 2021 and went public on the Nasdaq in July of 2021 at an over $3 billion valuation. At the peak, the company generated annual billings of over $400 million and adjusted cash generated by operating activities of over $200 million, which illustrates the rapid scalability of the business. As the COVID-related market wave receded and throughout 2023 and 2024, billings began to decline, and the company navigated a series of leadership changes and initiated a host of restructuring efforts. It's important to put some additional color on some of these leadership changes and restructuring activities I mentioned.

First, the company's leadership has been in flux since going public with five CEOs in the past five years. Naturally, this degree and extent of change, which is due to a host of factors, has impacted the continuity of strategy and overall operational execution. Second, in early 2024, after identifying certain violations of company policy within our Legacy Research brand, we commenced a reorganization of the division. While we continued to faithfully serve the Legacy Research customers with comparable products, the transition significantly impacted any new or renewable billings during the year. The decision to reorganize our business was very difficult and disruptive to the entire organization, but demonstrates our commitment to ensuring our research is 100% independent and free of any conflict of interest.

Lastly, the company has had to make difficult decisions in order to right-size the business by reducing overall staffing levels by around 25% over the past year. While changes of this magnitude are challenging for any organization, we believe the company is better positioned for the future with a more efficient cost structure. The most common question I have received from investors over the past 18 months has been, "Given the host of changes and challenges, when do you believe billings will return to growth?" Well, I am pleased to say, and as we reported in our press release this morning, that the company did return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 after 12 quarters of flat or declining results. We will talk more about this inflection point later. I would also add that we know the financial results of the past few years have been unacceptable.

That said, we believe we have the right team in place to lead the company forward, and in terms of restructuring efforts, while there is still work to do, we believe the heavy lifting is behind us, and the company can now focus on executing our strategy. Taking a step back, we believe the overall investment thesis for MarketWise is extremely attractive. First, we benefit from secular trends with a massive market opportunity. The financial publishing industry has benefited greatly from the overall democratization of investing as millions of retail investors have migrated to low-cost self-directed brokerage accounts like Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Robinhood, and others. These retail investors desire actionable investing research. Robinhood, in fact, has indicated that retail investing has increased by around 20% over the past 10 years, and we believe this structural shift will continue.

We see other macro and demographic factors, such as the generation wealth transfer, providing a tailwind as more and more investors will be seeking strategies to wisely invest a portion of this capital. Second, MarketWise is well positioned to continue to capitalize on these trends due to our robust ecosystem and scale. With over 3.1 million free and paid subscribers, we have a platform and critical mass to compete and grow. As we will cover later, we have a diversified suite of research and software products and tools across our 12 distinct market-facing brands. We invest tens of millions of dollars annually with our robust team of analysts and content creators in order to bring the most compelling investing ideas and software solutions to our customers. Third, the asset-light nature of our business supports strong returns on capital and cash flow and also enables the company to scale quickly.

In a dynamic market, we can accelerate sales and marketing efforts, and in a sideways market, we may slow sales efforts to protect cash flow. This ability to meter investment on a near real-time basis has worked well for us over time and can result in very attractive returns on capital. Fourth, even with the top-line declines of the past several quarters, the company estimates that it will generate well over $200 million in customer billings in 2024 and increasing cash in the fourth quarter. At December 31, 2024, the company has cash on the balance sheet of over $90 million with no debt outstanding. We believe this meaningful financial scale and balance sheet strength provides the company with the optionality and runway to execute on our growth plans, and lastly, we are committed to being excellent stewards of owner's capital.

Where it makes sense, we will invest prudently in our core business, and we will also remain opportunistic and disciplined in M&A. And as we have demonstrated, to the extent the company holds cash in excess of our needs, we may return capital to our shareholders in the form of dividends, which we believe can provide an attractive cash yield over time. We believe our powerful platform, compelling content, and the relationship between our editors and subscribers is a competitive advantage for us. And referring back to our core principles, a focus on our customers is at the heart of everything we do. In an industry where customer churn is typically very high, we are proud of the fact that of our more than $200 million of estimated billings for 2024, over 50% of these billings relate to customers that have been with us for over four years.

Similarly, many of our subscribers have more than one subscription across our products, and some customers have subscribed to several of our products. This is a testament to the perceived value of this. I have also spent time with our customer service team, and it is always inspiring to hear the positive comments from our customers when they refer to our products. Any successful B2C strategy combines compelling marketing, effective distribution, with a great product. You may have seen many of our products featured on financial-related websites, or you also may have seen some of our products where advertisements are currently running on CNBC, and some of you may receive our periodic emails inviting investors to try our products. Ultimately, however, the product must deliver on its promises. Our research and software products are world-class.

Again, our scale enables us to invest tens of millions of dollars each year in top analysts and researchers and software development to continue to provide innovative and actionable ideas which resonate with self-directed investors. Diving a bit deeper here into our product portfolio, the investing styles of unique self-directed investors vary, and investing objectives are distinct to each of our customers. Further, market dynamics change over time. As such, we offer over 100 unique products across many asset classes. This diverse research portfolio provides a breadth of actionable ideas and relevant content for most market conditions. This diverse product offering also serves to diversify our revenue streams. So whether it is a bull market or a bear market, or whether the consensus is leaning to growth stocks or income opportunities, we have a product or service to support our customers in achieving their investing goals.

I really like this slide, which provides an interesting view of the landscape. Across the top of the slide, you can see the different verticals, such as financial-related social media communities, online financial tools and brokers, financial newsletters and publications, and other specialty and institutional research. I am often asked, "What is the company's estimate of the total addressable market?" As you can see, there are several overlaps across the verticals, which makes an estimate challenging. But what we do know is the market is massive, and the demand for high-quality research and tools for self-directed investors is strong, and as we scan the competitive landscape, and certainly could be some good debates here around the attributes, we believe MarketWise and its family of brands tick the most boxes in terms of providing actionable content, data and info, and a diversified product set at a variety of price points.

That said, competition is intense, and solid execution is critical. In addition to the logos on the page, there are dozens more players in the space, which results in an extremely fragmented market. On that point, we have started to see more consolidation and vertical integration in the space, with Robinhood announcing a deal to acquire an RIA tech provider, financial research firms launching ETFs, and the Morningstar acquisition of PitchBook as a couple of examples. We will continue to monitor the competitive landscape in the context of our overall strategy. Before we move to the financials, I wanted to talk a bit about our subscriber composition. Here, we highlight the composition of our 3.8 million active users, with over 500,000 of these being paying subscribers.

As you can see, over 50% of our paid customers have spent over $600 with our company, and well over 100,000 of our customers have spent over $5,000. We believe our average revenue per customer is one of the highest in the industry and is attributable to the quality of our content, the diversity of our product portfolio, and the relationships we build with our customers over time. Our business model is straightforward: disciplined customer acquisition, compelling content, plus earned trust over time equals renewals, upsells, and high lifetime values. A key element of our strategy, then, is to continue to add customers to the platform, earn trust, and then convert an increasing percentage of customers to our higher-value financial research products. All right, moving to our financial performance. A couple of things I would like to highlight here.

First, it is important to note the distinction between our GAAP revenues and our billings. For GAAP purposes, we are required to amortize cash received from customers over the terms of the subscriptions. Billings represents cash invoiced to customers in the period. As such, we view billings as a better indication of the current trajectory and health of the business. Also note that these numbers are as of September 30, 2024, as our Q4 GAAP financials will not be available until March. Regarding billings trends, in early November, we indicated that we were beginning to see an improvement in our financial performance for both billings and margins. And as you may have seen earlier today, we published selected unaudited billings results for Q4 2024, which indicated a more than 10% sequential growth in our top-line billings. We are very encouraged to see this inflection point and return to growth.

On the timeline slide previously, we discussed the trajectory of the MarketWise business over the past several years. I commented on the COVID-related stock market boom and subsequent declines in our billings over the next several quarters. Here, we provide a view of our quarterly results over that period. Note that our billings are presented in light green and adjusted cash generated from operating activities in dark green. As you can see, even in periods where the company experienced top-line headwinds and declines, the company was able to largely meter expenses to protect cash flow. On the right side of the slide, we have included our preliminary estimate of Q4 2024 billings. As I mentioned, our Q4 billings increased over 10% sequentially, and this follows 12 quarters of flat or declining top-line results. While one quarter is not a trend, we are very encouraged and excited about these results.

We attribute the recovery in billings to a couple of things. First, we have launched a couple of new products in the past few months, which are beginning to get traction and we believe can contribute to meaningful billings growth in 2025, and second, the restructuring efforts of the past several quarters required a significant amount of time, focus, and energy of certain parts of our business. With increased organizational stability across our business, our teams can focus on innovation and operating as efficiently as possible. Also important to note that our margins also improved sequentially as the first nine months of 2024 were burdened with costs associated with a series of restructuring and reorganization efforts. As a result of higher billings coupled with improved efficiency in the fourth quarter, the company's consolidated cash balance increased from $94 million at September 2024 to $98 million at December 31, 2024.

Note that we have not presented here a specific adjusted cash from operating activities number for Q4, given we are still working through our typical year-end financial close process. We look forward to providing more information on our Q4 results when we file our full year results for 2024 in March, and before jumping to questions, I wanted to spend a moment on the company's capital structure, given we received many questions from investors on this topic. The unique capital structure is a result of the company's Go Public process in 2021, which resulted in two classes of shares. Important to note that the A shares, which are the publicly traded shares, and the B shares, which are primarily shares of our founder group, are equivalent from both an economic standpoint and a voting standpoint.

Thus, in order to determine the total shares outstanding of the company, simply add the A shares and the B shares. Interestingly, certain financial-related websites only capture the A shares in their market capitalization computation, which significantly understates the actual market cap of the company. For illustration purposes, you can see that we have done a quick summary of market cap as of December 31, 2024. Note that the company also has issued RSUs, which vest over time. Again, great to be with you this morning. In closing, I would like to come back around to where we started. Our mission and purpose is to empower, educate, and enrich self-directed investors, and if we do this well and efficiently, we believe we can also create significant value per share for our shareholders. We believe the company is at an exciting inflection point as we begin 2025.

We have a great team in place and a great strategy to guide efforts around our three strategic pillars of growth, efficiency, and new business. There are also some exciting projects in motion, including initiatives to improve overall customer engagement and experience, and efforts to optimize our marketing, distribution, and overall monetization processes. We look forward to providing updates as we move forward. And with that, let's go to some questions. Anna?

Operator

Great job, Erik. Thank you so much. And it's fantastic to see the return to growth in Q4. So what is your degree of confidence that this will continue?

Erik Mikels
CFO, MarketWise

Great. Thanks for the question. First, as I mentioned, we are fully cognizant that one quarter is not a trend, and nobody is celebrating just yet. However, we do believe there is a solid foundation in place that will support continued growth into 2025.

First, the changes in the business I referenced previously, being the leadership changes in the divisional reorganization, had a negative impact on the year. Both the real costs associated with restructuring, but more significantly, being the opportunity costs and energy associated with navigating the internal volatility. With stabilization now in the business, we can focus efforts on innovation and productivity versus navigating that change. And second, as I mentioned, we've had some new product launches in the second half of 2024 that are up and running and are contributing to growth at the top line and the bottom line. And last, we have a solid pipeline of products in the queue for the first part of 2025. This includes a new product launched just last week, which is one of the best-performing campaigns we have had in over a year.

So much work to do, but several reasons for us to be bullish on growth. And Erik, you mentioned a strategy refresh. So can you hash that out a little bit for us? Sure. We're really excited about this. I mentioned with the leadership changes over the past five years leading to a lack of continuity in the overall strategy. Over the past couple of months, we've been working with leadership and the board on a multi-year strategy that can serve as a framework to guide the company over the next few years. There has been great energy around the process, which really started with key questions around what is the current state of our business? Where do we want to go? How will we get there? And what will hold us back? Coming out of this process, we landed on our strategic pillars of growth, efficiency, and new business.

Underpinning our growth and efficiency pillars is a renewed focus on customer experience, which includes optimizing the process at every touchpoint. We believe if we can continue to elevate our game by driving higher customer engagement and satisfaction, we can significantly improve our retention rates, growth rates, and margins. We also believe there is opportunity to expand effectively into some new channels by leveraging social and new partnerships. And of course, we will continue to invest significantly in developing compelling content and tools, which is what we do. So early days on this, but we're excited about some of these initiatives which are already in motion.

Operator

Wonderful. And the press release from this morning that you mentioned, it has another dividend. So that suggests a pretty significant cash yield for the stock. So explain that in a little bit more detail for us?

Erik Mikels
CFO, MarketWise

Sure. Thanks.

So over the past several quarters, the company has paid a recurring quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share or $0.04 annually, which translates to a cash dividend of over 7% based on yesterday's share price. The special dividend referenced in today's press release is incremental and distinct from this recurring dividend and is related to our unique tax structure. As we mentioned in our third quarter filing, the company is required to make proportionate tax distributions to the members of MarketWise, LLC, these members being MarketWise, Inc., the public company, and the B shares. These contractual pro rata tax distributions are based on a 49.75% assumed tax rate. Thus, to the extent the distributions to MarketWise, Inc., the public entity, exceed its corporate tax liability, the company may further distribute this excess to the publicly traded A shares in the form of a special dividend.

The net effect is that we will distribute a dividend to A shares in late February of $0.03 per share, which meaningfully increases the cash yield on the stock. The company may distribute excess tax distributions to A shareholders in the future quarters, although the amount, if any, could vary based on numerous factors.

Operator

I'm sure that is very good news to hear. Then we also have to talk a little bit about the billings growth. It was encouraging to see, but then again, subscribers continue to decline. If you can address that, and what are you guys doing to increase this customer acquisition?

Erik Mikels
CFO, MarketWise

No, great. Thanks for bringing that up. First, I would comment that the bulk of the subscriber reduction is attributable to lower LTV customers. You can see this by the fact that the billings increased in spite of the customer declines.

Also, we do expect there will continue to be some noise in the coming quarters as we work through some of the lingering attrition from the reorganizations. That said, we are focused on building our list with the right subscribers. And we have started to see some acceleration of new customer acquisition coming from the new products I referenced. Back to my comments around strategy, we also believe there is opportunity to increase our customer acquisition numbers by leveraging some new channels. So looking into 2025, I expect we will be active in acquiring new customers, but doing so in a balanced and efficient way.

Operator

And last question for you, Erik. It's about the fact that the founder left the CEO post fairly abruptly last August. So were there any issues there that you'd like to address?

Erik Mikels
CFO, MarketWise

No, I appreciate that question.

Yes, our founder CEO stepped away in August after a relatively short return to the company. But he does continue to serve on the MarketWise board. And as the founder and largest single shareholder, I know that he cares deeply about the direction of MarketWise. It is a constructive relationship. I spent some time with Porter yesterday, and I know he would say that he prefers to be an advisor and board member rather than dealing with the day-to-day tasks of a public company CEO. And we look forward to continuing to partner together with the shared goal of increasing the intrinsic value of MarketWise. Lastly, I know that Porter is extremely supportive of David Eifrig, who has done a remarkable job in the CEO chair, restoring stability in our business and positioning the company well for 2025.

Regarding the interim label on the CEO title currently, I trust it will be resolved expeditiously. And certainly, the turnaround to date speaks for itself. So again, thanks everyone for your interest, and we look forward to providing updates as we progress.

Operator

Perfect. Thank you so much, Erik. Great presentation. We look forward to following along with your journey into 2025. Thanks for your time today.

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