MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2019

Jul 24, 2019

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key at any time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded July 24th, 2019. I would now like to turn the call over to Dave Cresci, Investor Relations Manager at MarketAxess. Please go ahead, sir.

Dave Cresci
Investor Relations Manager, MarketAxess

Good morning, and welcome to the MarketAxess second quarter 2019 conference call. For the call, Rick McVey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will review the highlights for the quarter. Chris Concannon, President and COO, will discuss new initiatives. Tony DeLise, Chief Financial Officer, will review the financial results. Before I turn the call over to Rick, let me remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements. These statements represent the company's belief regarding future events that, by their nature, are uncertain. The company's actual results and financial condition may differ materially from what is indicated in those forward-looking statements. For a discussion of some of the risks and factors that could affect the company's future results, please see the description of risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2018.

I would also direct you to read the forward-looking statement disclaimer in our quarterly earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and is now available on our website. Now let me turn the call over to Rick.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Good morning. Thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter 2019 results. This morning, we reported strong second-quarter results driven by record quarterly trading volume, with new volume records in high yield, emerging markets, and Eurobonds. Overall, fully electronic trading volume of $527 billion was up 25% compared to Q2 2018. Open Trading volume was up 46% year-over-year to $131 billion. Estimated U.S. high-grade market share was 18.7%. This quarter, trading activity outside of the U.S. reached record levels with international client volume up 43% to $162 billion. Second quarter revenues were a record $125 million, up 17% compared to Q2 2018. Operating income for the quarter was up 17% to $61 million, and diluted EPS was up 19% to $1.27. In addition to the strong quarterly results, we recently received the great news that MarketAxess has been added to the S&P 500 index.

This represents a major accomplishment for our company as we prepare to celebrate our 20th anniversary early next year. Congratulations to all of our employees on this significant achievement. Last week, we also announced that Richie Prager has joined our board of directors. Richie recently retired from BlackRock, where he was a senior managing director in charge of global trading, liquidity, and securities lending. He will be a valuable asset for the company as a new director. Slide four highlights market conditions. Market conditions were mixed during the quarter, which makes us feel even better about the results. Credit spreads over Treasuries continued to tighten, leading to an imbalance of buy orders, especially in high yield and EM. We have historically done better in market environments with widening spreads. TRACE volumes remain strong and are up 8% year-over-year.

We believe this is due to the strong demand for U.S. credit products and the growing level of trading automation in fixed income. Trading volumes are also undoubtedly benefiting from the significant addition of new entrants in credit trading as a result of the growth in All-to-All Trading. The Treasury yield curve remains flat, while Treasury yields decline from Q1. In this environment, we are pleased to see our average fee capture improve slightly year-over-year. Slide five highlights Open Trading activity. Open Trading experienced another strong quarter. Adoption continues to grow with volume of $131 billion, up 46% year-over-year. Open Trading represented 25% of our volume in Q2, up from 21% last year. Over 334,000 Open Trading transactions were completed in the second quarter, up from 256,000 in Q2 2018.

Open Trading liquidity providers or price makers on the platform drove approximately 2.3 million price responses on live orders, up 57% from a year ago. Liquidity takers saved an estimated $49 million in transaction costs through Open Trading on the system, up 27% from the second quarter last year. Participants benefited from average transaction cost savings of approximately 2.4 basis points in yield when they completed a U.S. high-grade transaction through Open Trading protocols. In addition, we estimate that liquidity providers saved an estimated $50 million in the quarter, up 46% year-over-year. This is the third quarter in a row where we have delivered estimated total transaction cost savings to our clients of around $100 million. Open Trading volume increased significantly across all four core products, with U.S. high grade up 34%, U.S. high yield up 49%, emerging markets up 55%, and Euro bonds up 111%.

Open Trading has become an important source of new liquidity for credit market participants around the world and is a key competitive advantage for MarketAxess. Slide six provides an update on our global network. Our global network of investors, dealers, and alternative market makers continues to expand both domestically and internationally. International trading activity is accelerating on MarketAxess. Trading activity from European clients was especially robust in the second quarter, with overall volume up 46% compared to Q2 2018. Eurobond volumes were up an impressive 64% year-over-year. We are confident we are taking meaningful share in European credit e-trading. Emerging market volume was up 27% to $124 billion, with a 51% increase in local market EM trading. We now have over 1,600 firms active on the platform globally. We currently have nearly 800 active international client firms, up 26% year-over-year.

Across all products, the number of active clients continues to grow sequentially. Penetration across products increased as well, with over 900 clients now trading three or more products. We are excited to see the continued growth of our business outside of the U.S. and believe these results confirm that our value proposition is resonating with clients globally. Now let me turn the call over to Chris to provide an update on trading automation and new initiatives.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Thank you, Rick. As you can see, slide seven demonstrates the growing momentum of automation in credit trading. Automation on the MarketAxess trading platform continues to expand as both dealers and institutional investors rapidly embrace our trading automation tools. The use of dealer algorithms continues to grow, with approximately 2.4 million algo responses in Q2 2019, an 81% increase year-over-year, creating a highly competitive trading environment for our clients. The use of auto-execution functionality on our platform by investors is growing rapidly as well. In Q2, 105,000 investor trades took place using our Auto-X feature, up from 37,000 trades in the same period a year ago. This activity was generated by 47 large global asset managers executing trades via auto-execution this quarter, more than double the number of firms using auto-execution in the same period last year.

We believe that the cost benefits from improving trading efficiency will continue to drive our investor and dealer clients to higher levels of automation and credit trading while we continue our investment in innovation in this area. Most importantly, we believe that structural increases in trading automation across the market will lead to higher levels of market turnover, as we witnessed in other markets. Slide eight outlines our new business initiatives and technology solutions. We are working on a number of new initiatives, and we would like to highlight several today. We have been analyzing the move to self-clearing for some time. Given the continued growth of Open Trading, we have made the decision to transition to self-clearing in the U.S. and engage a new settlement agent outside of the U.S.

This transition, which we expect to take place in the first half of next year, will lead to significant variable cost savings and create a more scalable cost structure. We also believe a new global settlement agent will be critical in expanding our local market coverage in our fast-growing emerging markets business. In terms of new technology enhancements, we are looking forward to the launch of Live Markets later this year. Live Markets is an all-to-all live order book with streaming dealer liquidity that was developed for the institutional market. It will provide on-demand liquidity for our investors and dealer clients, ultimately improving transparency and driving greater transaction cost savings. We will also be launching a portfolio trading solution to respond to both the recent growth in portfolio trading across the fixed income market and the growth of fixed income ETFs.

The solution will create a streamlined protocol for clients to price and transact large, customized fixed income portfolios while demonstrating best execution with competitive pricing and our proprietary data analytics. In the second quarter, we also announced a partnership with Virtu's RFQ-hub to deliver institutional investors a new, cost-efficient, secure solution for achieving quality execution in ETFs. ETFs have grown quickly to become an important feature of the liquidity landscape in the global credit markets. We believe our partnership with Virtu will provide our clients with seamless access to a global ETF platform. We are excited to be innovating and investing in technology solutions for our clients that will support the continued evolution of credit trading, and we look forward to updating you as these initiatives evolve. Let me turn the call over to Tony to discuss the financials in more detail.

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

Thank you, Chris. Please turn to slide nine for a summary of our trading volume across product categories. Overall trading volume was up 25% as we experienced healthy volume growth across each of our core four trading products. U.S. high-grade volumes were up 15% year-over-year to $265 billion for the quarter on a combination of a gain in estimated market share and higher U.S. high-grade trade volumes. Our other credit category trading volumes were up 40% year-over-year, in large part due to gains in estimated market share. Our trading volume gains in emerging markets, U.S. high yield, and European corporate bonds far outpaced the year-over-year rise in estimated market volumes. The results were particularly satisfying for these products, given an inquiry mix during the second quarter that favored client buying.

With six important trading days remaining, July month-to-date high-grade market share is tracking significantly above the second quarter level. Our overall July average daily volume, while lower than the second quarter level, is substantially higher than July 2018. On slide 10, we provide a summary of our quarterly earnings performance. Overall revenue was up 17% year-over-year. The 25% increase in trading volume resulted in a 19% uplift in commissions. Information services revenue was up 3%. On a constant currency basis, up 6%. Post-trade services revenue was up 9%. On a constant currency basis, up 16%. Expenses were up 18%. Operating income and EBITDA were both up 17% year-over-year. The effective tax rate was 23.5% in the second quarter versus 19.5% in the first quarter.

The recognized amount of excess tax benefits related to share-based compensation awards caused the movement in the effective tax rate between the first and second quarters. While the effective tax rate for the first half of the year was 21.5%, we expect our effective tax rate for full year 2019 will be near the low end of the guidance range of 20.5%. Our diluted EPS was $1.27 on a small increase in the diluted share count. On slide 11, we have laid out our commission revenue, trading volumes, and fees per million. Total variable transaction fees were up 27% year-over-year, largely driven by the 25% increase in trading volume. U.S. high-grade fee per million was up $9 from the first-quarter level as the favorable impact from lower yields and slightly longer years to maturity was somewhat offset by a mix shift in trade size buckets.

Our other credit category fees per million decreased by $6 on a sequential basis. The contribution to other credit volume from emerging markets, high yield, and European credit was little changed during the quarter. A shift in dealer mix accounted for a small decline in emerging markets and high-yield fee capture. We had one dealer migrate from the U.S. high-grade distribution fee plan to the all-variable fee plan during the second quarter, which resulted in a sequential decline in U.S. high-grade distribution fees. Slide 12 provides you with the expense detail. On a year-over-year basis, expenses were up 18% for the quarter and up 15% year to date. Compensation and benefits accounted for more than 60% of the absolute change in expenses for both the quarter and year to date as we continue to add personnel to support our growth initiatives.

A year-over-year increase in headcount of 49, higher variable bonus provision, and higher stock-based compensation expense were the main contributors to the rise in compensation and benefits. We have freshened up the expense forecast and refined our resource requirements necessary to execute on a variety of important initiatives, including those that Chris described, and now believe that full year 2019 expenses will end up near the high end of the expense guidance range of $256 million. Just a reminder that the estimated 2019 expense uplift includes approximately $10 million in expense associated with senior hires and retention activity. We don't expect a repeat of this type of activity in 2020. On slide 13, we provide balance sheet information. Cash and investments as of June 30th were $518 million, and trailing 12 months free cash flow reached a record $196 million.

During the second quarter, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $19 million and also repurchased 13,000 shares under our share buyback program. Our growing cash flow from operations allows us to increase investment in organic growth opportunities while simultaneously returning cash to shareholders. Chris commented earlier on our clearing and settlement initiatives. We believe that our regulated businesses that handle matched principal trading have sufficient liquidity and capital to cover any new deposit or reserve requirements in the near term. We also do not anticipate any change in our shareholder capital return programs. Based on the second quarter results, our board has approved a $0.51 regular quarterly dividend. Now let me turn the call back to Rick for some closing comments.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Thank you, Tony. We are happy with the growth we achieved in Q2 trading volumes, revenues, and earnings. Open trading is driving transaction cost savings, and our international business has never been stronger. Trading automation is leading to increased client demand for e-trading across products. In this environment of growing client demand, we are actively investing in new products and new trading solutions in order to maximize long-term revenue growth opportunities for our shareholders. Now we would be happy to open the line for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press the star then the one key on your touch tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, press the pound key. In the interest of time, please limit questions to one and one follow-up. Our first question comes from Rich Repetto with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Yeah. Good morning, Rick and Tony and Chris. First, congrats on the add of Richie Prager. He's been at the forefront of the conversion to electronics and fixed income, so great addition to your board. The first question is on self-clearing. Can you approximate the savings? Maybe I missed it, but can you approximate the savings and when it'll be implemented?

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

So Rich, it's Tony. On the self-clearing and the clearing initiative, today we use a third-party clearing broker to settle and match principal trades. When we look at clearing costs as a percentage of Open Trading revenue, that's one of the principal metrics we use. It's been bubbling around 11% or 12% or 13% of Open Trading revenue. We're going to move to the self-clearing model in the U.S. You also heard that we're changing out settlement agents outside of the U.S. and the cost structure, it will scale better. Even as important as that is, it's going to improve customer service and better support our emerging markets initiatives. There are multiple benefits here. When we look at clearing costs as a percentage of revenue, use that metric. We believe that we can drive clearing costs in that particular metric into the single digits.

Again, if it's 11% or 12% or 13%, we think we can get it into the single digits. Exact date, it's sometime in the first half of the year. It's hard to pin down an exact date, but expect those savings to flow through over the course of 2020.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Rich, it's Chris. I'd just add, it's important to point out that we have a well-capitalized broker-dealer because of the commercial needs, when we're a counterparty to some of the major institutions around the globe. That capital is now being deployed as clearing fund deposit for our activity. We don't see an immediate need to further capitalize the broker-dealer because it is over-capitalized for commercial reasons. We're leveraging capital that's sitting on our broker-dealer balance sheet and reducing our variable costs of trading. It's a great project and one that delivers not only savings, but allows us to expand. There's an important point on the change of the global agent that allows us to expand our local markets in EM, which, as you can see, our EM continues to grow rapidly.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Got it. You're in a unique position there. I guess my follow-up would be, this past quarter, it was sort of unique in that as far as interest rate movements, the yield curve. I guess the question is on macro, is there takeaways from what happened in the quarter in regards to the performance, either way people trade bond electronically in this type of environment? The other macro thing I think that's lingering is the potential for a hard Brexit now. Could you comment on some of these factors that aren't fundamental but certainly would impact you, Rick?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Sure. Happy to. Thanks, Rich. The macro environment, I commented in the prepared remarks. If you look at a quarter like Q4, when spreads were widening significantly, that's typically where we deliver the biggest market share gains. What we are encouraged by when you look at the first half of this year is it's been a consistent spread tightening environment, and spreads have basically recovered almost entirely the move from the fourth quarter. For us to be gaining share and gaining volume the way that we are in what is really an offer-wanted environment where there's a search for yield going on globally gives us great confidence that we are in the midst of a secular change in client behavior towards more trading automation and electronic trading.

As we look into the second half, it's really hard to predict, of course, but we now are at lower levels of spreads and lower levels of yields, as you have mentioned. We would expect, as is normally the case seasonally, for new issue volume to be lower in the second half than it was in the first half. With respect to Brexit, we've been preparing for several years, and we feel very good that we're ready for any outcome. Clearly, the view is that the odds of a hard Brexit have increased this week

We are ready to go. We have all of our regulated entities now set up in the Netherlands, and we have clients in the EU trading through our MTF in Amsterdam every day. We're ready to switch over. The liquidity experience is very similar in our Amsterdam MTF as it is in the U.K., and we feel very good about our preparation for Brexit.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Got it. Thank you, Rick. That's very helpful.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. A couple questions on the new business initiatives. The Live Markets description seems like it would compete a bit more with the banks directly. Just in terms of going after new issue. Can you talk about that offering in more detail, please?

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Sure. Live Markets is not designed to compete with the banks. It's actually designed to help the banks provide what they've built on their side, which is streaming liquidity, streaming dealer liquidity. We're seeing it today in response to RFQs. It facilitates both banks and non-banks' ability to stream to clients across the most liquid end of the bond market. What's unique about Live Markets, not only does it help facilitate liquidity being driven from the banks, but it also allows investors to rest orders really for the first time in the bond market. If you think about the overall global market in fixed income, it's driven by a request for quote, where clients are asking the community for a price.

Now, our investors, with the introduction of Live Markets, clients will be able to place orders in a market that is available to all, and that's a critical function that has been missing from the bond market. It's a function that we take for granted in other markets, both the futures market, where clients can rest orders, and obviously the equity market globally, where clients can rest orders. We are building a place for clients to rest orders side by side with dealers to stream price to clients.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Follow-up for Tony, just on expenses. Thinking we can get the high end for this year, but thinking about next year where you have the self-clearing coming in, I think you said the rollback of roughly the $10 million in retention, and then obviously the ongoing investment in the core business. Just directionally or kind of from a growth perspective, how we should think about 2020 from an expense perspective would be helpful.

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

Wow, Dan. Early to start talking about 2020, at least with some specificity. I'd mentioned in the prepared remarks that we have the senior hire activity and that retention activity. It's not likely to repeat in 2020. That was around $10 million. While I'm not prepared to give an exact range right now, just a couple of items to think about. The first one, we're going to continue to invest. We're continuing to invest in people and infrastructure to support growth. We believe that's what our shareholders are looking for. We're not playing this for the short term, and we want to make sure that we're capitalizing on the opportunity in front of us, so we're going to continue to invest. The senior hire activity, while it's in the base, we don't intend on hiring another president, although sometimes I do wonder about that.

We're not hiring another president.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

You hope so.

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

Also, you will see, while it will not be in Q1, you will see the benefit come through for this clearing initiative and change in clearing arrangements. You will see that coming through definitely in the back half of the year. Tough to give a range right now, but I think all of us would be a little bit surprised if you saw an expense increase like you're seeing this year, up 15% year-over-year. Again, with some of those items that I'm pointing out, you're not likely to see that repeat again in 2020.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

And Dan, it's important to point out on the self-clearing initiative, it is a lengthy approval process, so it requires your investment at the front end of the process. People and platforms need to be in position way before launch date. Most of that investment will happen this year, and you'll see a run rate in this year that will follow into self-clearing in the first half of next year.

Dan Fannon
Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kyle Voigt with KBW. Your line is open.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Hi, good morning. If I could just ask a couple of follow-ups on the Live Markets initiative. I know it's focused on new issues and story bonds. Can you help frame the percentage of total secondary market trading that this offering will address? Can you share anything in terms of where you think the net capture rates will shake out, and any incentives that may need to be in place for the dealers?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Sure. Happy to take that one, Kyle. Good morning. As we've said on previous calls, Live Markets is really aimed at the very liquid end of corporate bond trading, which historically, interestingly enough, is not where we have done our best in market share. Part of that market is clearly newly issued bonds and the other are the large benchmark deals that trade in a very liquid way throughout most trading days. The other clear focus for us in Live Markets is in increasing block trading market share.

What we have seen in EM is the investment in the Request for Market protocol significantly improved our results in block trades. Block trades now make up a significant part of our growth in EM trading, especially in local markets. There is some similarity here with the Live Markets initiative in terms of aiming at the very liquid end of the market and the block trading market. When we try to estimate what percentage of trades, if you look at the percentage of trades that we think is attributable to newly issued bonds and benchmark large deals, it's probably around 25% of total trades volume. It's difficult to be exact, but it's a significant part of the market. We're active there today, but these protocols, we think, have a real chance to increase our share in that part of the market.

Fee capture, of course, is tied to bid offer, and bid offer is tighter on these bonds. we would expect that the combination of larger trades and lower bid offer would suggest that fee capture in this part of the market will be lower. Of course, it's all additive top-line revenue versus where we are today.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Okay, Rick, just to clarify, or should we think about maybe half of the fee capture in high grade, or is it something lower than that?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

It's too early to know specifics on it. I wouldn't think that that would be too far off the mark. Those details are still in front of us.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Okay, great. Just this may be one on Auto-Execution. I know it continues to grow really rapidly. In terms of volume, I think it's still only around 4% of your total volume, which is up substantially year-over-year. Just wondering if you could help frame where you think that buy-side Auto-X can go as a percentage of MarketAxess' total volume. Is this something that in three or five years, it could be a quarter or a half their volume or more?

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Sure. I'll take that. It's Chris. We see client adoption across the board from most of the large fund complexes. Most of that adoption involves smaller ticket sizes, either under a million or under two million. Most of the firms are getting comfortable once they adopt it. We do see firms increasing to penetrate more of their trading activity across investment grade and high yield, and we would expect auto execution to bleed into other products as well. If you think about munis, which are a much smaller trade size, provided you're comfortable with the liquidity on the platform, and the price that we're delivering, you get comfortable with auto execution. We see with the clients that have adopted it, further penetration and higher growth rates, which would suggest a much higher percentage of our total volume being Auto-X.

I think it's important to point out that that's one side of the trade. That is the client auto-executing their request for quote and those responses. We still are looking at solutions similar to an autoresponder where clients are able to respond to other requests for quotes. There are a variety of auto-execution solutions that we continue to analyze and we continue to hear from the clients that will drive auto execution to a much higher percentage of our overall volume.

Kyle Voigt
Analyst, KBW

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Hill with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.

Ken Hill
Analyst, Rosenblatt Securities

Hey, good morning. My first question is going to go back to the new business initiatives. I know you guys have these opportunities kind of identified, I'm guessing project out an expected launch here for a couple of the ones here in the fourth quarter. If we look beyond that to, I guess, the kind of next wave of initiatives, what are areas of the market you guys are focused on that seem maybe a little bit juicier or ripe for more investment over time?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

I think the nice part about the credit space is we see ample opportunity for investment over the next three to five years. We're still in pretty early stages of electronification of the credit markets. Clearly, Asia is an area of investment for us given the beginnings of greater electronic trading adoption in the region. We would also see electronic trading demand growing in additional credit products. We're in very early stages in municipal bond trading, but we like some of the trends and client input that we're getting for our muni bond product. The structured product market, including asset backs and non-agency mortgages, has opportunities to expand electronically. We're looking at a broad menu of opportunities globally, and we're matching that against increased demands for automation coming from both our dealer and investor clients.

It is an attractive space in terms of the number of growth opportunities that we see in front of us.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Rick, I would just add that we're seeing continued growth in our request for market, where clients are requesting a two-sided market versus the single-sided request for quote. That's been a wonderful driver in Euro bonds and our emerging markets growth rates that you've seen here today. We're expecting further investment in functionality similar to request for market. Obviously, investment in the Auto-X features that we just mentioned. I think that's a multi-year investment because clients continue to request small changes, small adjustments as we roll out all these features.

Ken Hill
Analyst, Rosenblatt Securities

Okay. One thing that wasn't on that slide, but I think you guys had announced earlier in the year, was the Refinitiv data partnership. Just wondered if we could get any color on the early traction there, that you guys have been getting back.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Sure. On that, what's great about data is we continue to produce it without making substantial investments, and it's really about distribution. The Refinitiv relationship is an important relationship for us because of their massive global distribution. We're seeing a lot of activity. Again, it takes a fairly long life cycle to sell through that distribution channel. We're seeing a lot of activity through that distribution channel around our key data products. We do expect later in the year to see more activity coming out of that relationship.

Ken Hill
Analyst, Rosenblatt Securities

Okay. Thanks for the details.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Hugh Miller with Buckingham. Your line is open.

Hugh Miller
Analyst, Buckingham

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I had one around the Eurobond market, and obviously, that's an area where we've seen greater adoption of electronic trading. You guys have had a lot of success in gaining market share more recently. Just wanted to get a sense of if you're seeing competitors in that space react in any way. Are they making changes to their platform to try and either protect their share and maybe mimic some of the success that you're having? Are you seeing anything just in terms of the competitive landscape in the Eurobond area?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

I think, as we've suggested in past calls, that European clients are responding to a couple parts of our value proposition in European trading. By the way, it's well beyond Eurobonds. European clients are extremely active in emerging markets trading on MarketAxess, as well as U.S. credit trading. Clearly, the liquidity solution that we're offering is different from competitors. The combination of broad-based dealer liquidity and Open Trading liquidity is unique and is driving transaction cost savings. I think that's a big part of why we're doing better in the European region. I would also point to data. We're using data to drive trading activity and market share gains, and we have terrific pre-trade price discovery and data products for European clients, including CP+, which has been winning multiple awards this year as one of the best real-time pricing tools for the global credit markets.

I think that combination of a unique liquidity pool driving down transaction costs and high-quality, reliable pre-trade data is really changing the dynamic in the competitive landscape in Europe. It's a meaningful change. You can see that with some of our competitors in the volumes that they're reporting, that we are clearly taking share. We're excited that there is more to come for us given the success that we're having in the European region.

Hugh Miller
Analyst, Buckingham

Thanks, Rick. That's really helpful. Just on the expense guidance, the update there towards the upper end of the range, is there an assumption just in terms of market activity in the second half of the year relative to the first half? Is the change primarily all driven by the increase in the business investments?

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

Hugh, it's Tony. I wouldn't say that it's market activity-related. When we freshened up the forecast for the rest of the year, we're looking at the resources required to execute on all of these initiatives. Most of the uplift is people-related, although there's several other line items like clearing costs. Like this clearing initiative, there's implementation fees. There's even some occupancy uplift in London. There's various employee benefit programs and trainings. There's a number of items that went into the mix. By and large, it is people. That is the swing factor.

Hugh Miller
Analyst, Buckingham

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rich Repetto with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Yeah. Tony, just a quick follow-up on the July volumes. You said that compared to last year, they were above it, which is volumes were very weak last year, but down from 2 Q. Pretty wide range, I guess. The point is, could you give any additional color on volumes July to date?

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

Yeah. Sort of gave an upper end of the boundary there with 2Q. We were at 8.4 billion average daily volume in Q2. The commentary, you're going to have to decipher what the word substantially higher means, substantially higher than July 2018. The market environment and the market volumes in July, while down seasonally from June and the second quarter, which happens every July, market volumes are actually pretty healthy. When you look at U.S. high-grade market volume, month to date is up about 5%. Now, you have to remember, we have six trading days left, and we also have the impact of July 3rd and July 5th in there. Market volumes are pretty healthy, even in high grade.

When you look at high yield, emerging markets, and Eurobond market volumes month to date, all three of them are tracking up more than 20% year-over-year. While we're saying that ADV is tracking below the second quarter, which will be very typical for July. Remember, we've got market volumes in there. We also said that U.S. high-grade market share is tracking well above the second quarter. Hard to be more specific than that, but we've kind of put a little bit of a boundary on it for you.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Remember, Rich, and you see this across all of your market structure platforms. At this point in July, the two holiday impacted trading days, July 3rd and July 5th, are heavily weighting down market volumes, but that will improve as the month goes on. You did have two quiet days around the fourth, but the trends are really positive, as Tony pointed out, on market share. Overall, if you look year-over-year, market share gains are looking really solid. We're encouraged, and the quarter is off to a good start.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Got it. It seems like every Monday is weighing on market volumes as well. Anyway, the question I have is for Chris, and as you go to a streaming platform, and this is for Rick as well, the question is how much of the market do you think. Do you think this will be a significant play? Say, in U.S. equities where Chris comes from, would it be a small portion like dark pool volumes? You also seems like you have more competition in the streaming that have streaming platforms already. Certainly don't have the liquidity you have in the RFQ model. Just trying to see how much you can take and how much a competitive moat you have.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

It's a good question. Obviously, we think Live Markets is an important feature that we're delivering to the global credit market. It's something that our clients don't see anywhere else, and they don't have access to something like it. It is unique for the global credit market. We do think it will ramp up quite slowly as dealers get comfortable pricing on a streaming credit platform and as clients get more comfortable using click-to-trade, something that's new to them as well. I just think the innovation is really allowing clients to market their pricing interest in bonds. If you think about your average portfolio, there's an offer in that portfolio on every bond in the portfolio that has no place to be placed in the market unlike most other instruments that they trade in those large managed funds.

It is a unique innovation in the corporate bond market to allow an investor to reflect their pricing interest in a bond and have it sit either the full size or a small size with hidden liquidity behind it. I think it's going to allow us to drive innovation across the bond market because of the functionalities that we can embed in that market once it's up and running. Again, I want to make sure it's clear, we do think it will take time for this market to develop on Live Markets. We are targeting a small subset of the bond market which is the most liquid end of the bond market. We're allowing an important functionality in the market, the Live Markets functionality, is that dealers can stream their prices in. That's something we already see them doing in Request for Quote.

They are responding with an automated market price. We're just allowing that functionality to bleed into Live Markets.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Rich, remember, when you talk about competition for streaming today is primarily in the rates market, not in credit. We believe that the network that we've established and the significant advantage that we have in client overflow gives us a great head start in leading the move toward more automated means of trading through Live Markets and streaming quotes. It's been a very liquid market phenomena so far, and we think now at the liquid end of corporate bonds, the market investment in automation means that it's ready to start moving toward corporate bonds.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Got it. One last quick question. Why would someone request a two-sided quote? Would it be simply just to hide their intentions?

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Yeah. It's primarily, it has much less information leakage that the client likes to basically camouflage the side of the market that they intend to trade on and request a two-sided market. By the way, we get positive feedback from the dealer community because it works for them, because you don't have the winner's curse where everyone knows which side of the market they traded on. In certain products, like EM, it's proven to be very popular with both investors and dealers.

Rich Repetto
Analyst, Sandler O'Neill

Understood. Thanks for the follow-up information. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeremy Campbell with Barclays. Your line is open.

Jeremy Campbell
Analyst, Barclays

Hey, thanks a lot guys. I think a lot of questions have been asked here. Hopped on a little bit late. I just wanted to talk a little bit about portfolio trading, and maybe what the opportunity you guys see there. I presume it goes a bit hand-in-hand with your Virtu partnership. Maybe any color on read-through of volumes from both those items and if it will compete with or kind of dovetail with ICE's intention to launch their fixed income create redeem ETF hub at some point in the future.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Great question. The portfolio trading, we see portfolio trading happening in the market on an average trading day. We continue to hear from our clients, how they are constructing portfolio trades and putting up portfolio trades. The efficiency of that process, just the workflow, is very difficult for both client and dealer because it's passing spreadsheets back and forth. What's unique about our portfolio trading solution is it's leveraging some of the functionality that we already have, things like list trading, and it's allowing an investor to market a portfolio, request prices across the portfolio on a single net basis, so they can market their portfolio, have not just one dealer price respond, but multiple dealers price respond, which is a very important best execution functionality in the credit market. It allows for investors to manage that large portfolio and show it to dealers across our platform.

That's a unique solution. We continue to hear from our clients asking for the functionality, that's one of the reasons why we're driving to deliver that. On the unique data analytics that we can provide, not only do we have our Composite+ pricing that helps you price the portfolio, but as part of the Virtu partnership, we're delivering an eNAV pricing solution that we expect to be out in the fall. That will help people pricing portfolios relative to portfolios of ETF. There will be the ability to compare the live eNAV as part of the Virtu relationship with a portfolio that you're pricing, if it's an index-based portfolio.

Jeremy Campbell
Analyst, Barclays

If ICE got their hub off the ground, I assume this probably you're already the liquidity provider for high grade and high yield fixed income. We might see incremental float on portfolio trading side come through you guys in that pipe?

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Yeah, we believe this is obviously capturing trades that are being conducted today in the market that we're not seeing. We do see parts of those trades, really the follow-on as the portfolio is unwound by a dealer. We'll see certain elements of that portfolio trade coming through our platform. Today, we see trades going up on trades that we're not participating in, and that's really the driver to deliver this. It also will reduce the inefficiencies around the workflow for our clients, because it will seamlessly go through our trade reporting and our clearing solutions for our clients and flow back into their OMSs. That's one of the drivers that we see the opportunity.

We do think it will allow for, because it is efficient and given the growth of the fixed income ETF trading, we do think it will allow our clients to trade more portfolios that they're not currently trading. We do think it will create trades that haven't happened in the market today.

Jeremy Campbell
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Tony, I think you had mentioned that some of the expenses to build out the self-clearing side of things is already kind of contemplated in the higher end of the 2019 guide. I think it was also mentioned that self-clearing is a bit of a lengthy approval process. I'm just wondering, is MarketAxess currently running with some sort of redundancies, or is that yet to come at this point? I'm just trying to figure out how much more it'll cost to build out the self-clearing versus the savings you're going to see there.

Tony DeLise
CFO, MarketAxess

It's important to point out that the self-clearing, the majority of the costs will, not the variable cost, but the fixed cost to build out will be contained in 2019. Meaning, headcounts that we need to add, people and employees and specialists that support the clearing function. They expect to have all your people and processes in place and the ability to run test trades through the clearing cycle. That all needs to be done at the front end of the approval process. Expect the majority of those fixed cost expenses to be incurred in 2019. In 2020, when you make the switch, you are running really a redundant self-clearing operation as well as outsourcing your clearing to a third party.

That's when the switch takes place and really you see the benefit of reduced variable cost coming through, and what we're predicting is first half of 2020.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Yeah, just to follow on that. When we look at three- to five-year expense savings from trade settlement combined with the improvement in customer service, this is a very high ROI activity. We feel very good about what we're doing, and we think that this will make a significant difference in our margins as we continue to expand Open Trading.

Jeremy Campbell
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Allen with Compass Point. Your line is open.

Chris Allen
Analyst, Compass Point

Morning, guys. I wanted to follow up on the commentary you made earlier, just about taking share in EM and Eurobonds. EM, it sounds like you're seeing increased block activity. I wonder if that's coming from local or global dealers. Eurobonds, is that taking it from some of the existing electronic platforms? Any color there would be helpful.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Sure. On EM, we've talked about this in prior quarters as well, we do think that the investment we've made now over 19 years has created a really unique global EM solution. The liquidity comes from a combination of the large global dealers active in EM, and importantly, in local markets, a lot of the local banks that make markets in those currencies. It's a time-consuming exercise to work our way around the world to now have 26 active local EM markets. You put the global dealers, the local dealers, and in some markets now we're even able to apply the benefits of Open Trading, and you have a really unique liquidity solution that's highly efficient for EM trading for our clients. It is a combination there.

When you look at Eurobonds, the rapid growth that we've seen over the last four to six quarters, to us, clearly reflects that we're gaining significant share. From some of the competitor reports, we see their volumes in euros going the other way. When we look at combined ADV in euros, EM, and U.S. credit, we feel increasingly positive about our market position in Europe, and we think that there is still a significant growth opportunity in front of us with clients really embracing the liquidity solution that we are offering.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Chris, I would just point out, from a competitive standpoint, we are competing against platforms that either are free or at a lower cost. Really, our clients are seeing the benefits of the trade outcome, their net savings, when you factor in those costs, and that's a huge driver of our competitive growth. We are growing against platforms that are charging either no cost or a lower rate. I think in emerging markets, as Rick pointed out, a key benefit for our global clients is the unique liquidity pool that we have amassed. These are local dealers quoting on a platform, and the benefits for those local dealers is they have access to a network of clients that they would need to arm sales forces across the globe to obtain those clients.

We are really a network for the local dealers, and that's why we've had great success on onboarding those local dealers. They, in return, are providing unique pricing in our emerging markets complex. We're really getting the benefit of the network that has taken years to build. Again, I have to point out, we are growing against the competition despite lower costs, and when it comes to fees from the competition.

Chris Allen
Analyst, Compass Point

Just the change in the global third party you talked about from a clearing perspective, if that's going to help you support EM efforts moving forward. Is that going to help you penetrate new markets or just deeper penetration of the existing markets? Any color there would be helpful, and that's it for me.

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

Sure. It's really two benefits. One is we do get a lower cost of our current activity across the local markets today. We are achieving some lower variable fees for our emerging markets business and our European business. More importantly, it does access further local markets beyond the current local markets that we offer. We're excited about the growth opportunity that it provides, but also providing us with a cost savings at the same time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick O'Shaughnessy with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Analyst, Raymond James

Hey, good morning, guys.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Good morning.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Analyst, Raymond James

Curious what your current thoughts are on the opportunity with Chinese bonds. I think particularly now that U.S. rating agencies are going to be allowed to rate onshore Chinese corporate debt.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

I think it's a significant new opportunity for global fixed income investors and also for us. It's extremely early days in the opening up of the Chinese market. As you know, Patrick, that is being done through their Bond Connect hub. We have increasing dialogue with the decision-makers at Bond Connect, both PBOC and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. We are optimistic that they are increasingly aware of the global order flow that we can help to deliver for onshore Chinese government bond trading. When you look at the size of that market, it will be one of the new fixed income trading opportunities available to investors around the world.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thanks, Rick. Maybe Chris, to follow up on something that you said earlier, you kind of talked about your belief that electronification will result in increased trading velocity or turnover. Do you think that we're seeing signs of this already taking place, or is it more that it's your expectation that will take place going forward?

Chris Concannon
President and COO, MarketAxess

I do think the turnover is showing signs of an increase in turnover if you look at the new issue market declining with the overall turnover year-over-year comparison. I do think we're seeing signs of it, but when I look at the automation that we're delivering today, it's still so small compared to what we can deliver as a platform. I have higher hopes that that turnover will increase as we make it more efficient. Really, when automation has been delivered in other markets, in the futures market in particular, when you went from a floor-based market to an electronic market, two things happened. One, fees, obviously, the cost of trading, and the efficiency of trading increased. The cost of trading decreased, but more importantly, the spread decreased.

That allowed clients to have higher turnover trades that didn't exist in the less efficient market suddenly started to exist. We do believe there are portfolio trades out there that PMs want to make, but right now, the cost of flipping from one bond to another is too costly. Those trades will happen as we reduce the spread across the market, and deliver more automation to the workflow of those portfolio managers. I think there's signs of it, but when I look at what we have done in automation, while I'm excited about the volume, it's still small and still early days. I really feel like many of the major market players are still testing out that automation tool. There's signs, but it's still early days.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Patrick, I'd just follow on that. In addition to the growing automation story that Chris outlined, I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we are definitely benefiting from the influx of new significant market participants to credit that really couldn't participate in the old model. Not only have we seen a nice increase over the last two years, the pipeline of new participants that we see that we expect to come in over the next two or three quarters is also meaningful. I think the opening up of the market through all-to-all protocols is really building a much stronger base for market turnover in the future.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Rick McVey for any further comments.

Rick McVey
Chairman and CEO, MarketAxess

Thank you very much for joining us this morning, and enjoy the rest of the summer. We'll talk to you next quarter.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.