Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)
NYSE: MLM · Real-Time Price · USD
614.04
+4.29 (0.70%)
Apr 28, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT - Market closed
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q4 2018

Feb 12, 2019

Speaker 1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Martin Marietta's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sonia, and I'll be your coordinator today. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Suzanne Osberg, Vice President of Investor Relations for Martin Marietta. Ms. Osberg, you may begin.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and thank you for joining Martin Marietta's 4th quarter and full year 2018 earnings call. With me today are Ward Nye, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Jim Nicholas, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. To facilitate today's discussion, we have made available during this webcast and on the Investor Relations section of our website 2018 supplemental information that summarizes our financial results and trends. As detailed on Slide 2, this conference call may include forward looking statements as defined by securities laws in connection with future events, future operating results or financial performance. Like other businesses, we are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Except as legally required, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether resulting from new information, future developments or otherwise. We refer you to the legal disclaimers contained in today's earnings release and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on both our own and the SEC websites. Please note that all financial and operating results discussed today are for full year 2018. Any comparisons are versus the prior year unless otherwise noted and all margin references are based on revenues. Furthermore, non GAAP measures are defined and reconciled to the nearest GAAP measure in our 2018 supplemental information and SEC filings.

We will begin today's earnings call with Ward Nye, who will discuss our operating performance as well as market trends and expectations for 2019. Jim Nickolas will review our 2018 financial results. A question and answer session will follow. I will now turn the call over to Ward.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Suzanne, and thank you all for joining today's teleconference. Martin Marietta's success is rooted in our commitment to our core values and the disciplined execution of our strategic operating analysis and review or SOAR process. Today's reported results clearly demonstrate the benefits of our approach as we once again delivered record financial and safety performance and did so without the benefit of meaningful and growth across our heritage building materials business. For the full year, consolidated revenues increased 7% to a record $4,200,000,000 and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA increased 9% to a record $1,100,000,000 These outstanding results were driven largely by solid pricing gains across the Building Materials business and the Bluegrass Materials acquisition, the 2nd largest transaction in our company's history. We also established new records for net earnings and earnings per diluted share, excluding the one time benefit from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 on prior year earnings.

As you've heard us say before, every facet of our business starts with safety. We're particularly proud to have built upon 20 seventeen's record results to achieve the best heritage safety performance in our company's history. Teams at our newest operations have also worked diligently to improve their safety performance, embracing our Guardian Angel and Wingman cultures. Companywide, we achieved world class lost time instant rate levels for the 2nd year in a row. Elevated safety awareness across the company has also reduced downtime from workplace incidents, leading to higher revenues and profitability.

Our ability to repeatedly deliver record financial and safety performance validates the importance of SOAR and our successful execution of that plan, especially in light of last year's environment where aggregate shipments on a comparable basis remained only modestly above 2010 trough levels. To emphasize, Martin Marietta has continued to steadily improve key financial metrics, chief among them profits, even its shipment volumes adjusted for acquisitions that approximate great recession levels. Importantly, we continue to strengthen our foundation for longer term success through strategic geographic positioning, price discipline and prudent capital allocation. That's why we're more confident than ever about Martin Marietta's ability to drive continued profitability growth and enhanced shareholder value. In sum, we expect 2019 to be another record year for our company.

What gives us that confidence for 2019? It's all about our geography and culture. Construction growth from the combination of emerging public sector activity and continued private sector strength in our key geographies should outpace the nation as a whole, driving improved shipment, pricing and profitability. Our geographic footprint is concentrated in areas with attractive underlying market fundamentals, including notable employment gains, population growth and superior state fiscal health. These fundamentals should promote steady and sustainable construction growth for the foreseeable future.

Robust underlying demand, customer optimism and third party forecasts also bolster this positive outlook. Moreover, throughout 2018, we experienced strong shipment volumes on days not adversely impacted by extraordinary precipitation and or extreme temperatures as further demonstrated during the Q4. These trends combined with a favorable pricing environment are clear indicators of underlying market strength and customer demand underscoring the near term growth trajectory of our business. Importantly too, we have the right teams, structure and organizational culture to leverage these positive trends for the great benefit of our many stakeholders. Before we discuss in more detail where we're headed in 2019, let's quickly review full year 2018 operating results.

We and our entire industry started last year with high expectations. Martin Marietta along with our customers, peers and third party forecasters anticipated accelerated construction activity. These expectations formed the basis of our original 2018 aggregates volume guidance of a 4% to 6% increase. Weather, contractor capacity issues and logistics disruptions, however, challenged both our company and the sector throughout the year. These dynamics precluded customers from meaningfully addressing their mounting books of business.

As a result, heritage aggregate shipments adjusted for shipments from the Forsyth County, Georgia quarry we divested in April 2018 in conjunction with the Bluegrass Materials acquisition increased only slightly over 2017. It's important to remember that these well chronicled headwinds are transient in nature and will ameliorate, serving to extend the construction cycle. The silver lining from these project delays is a notable increase in both customer and Martin Marietta backlogs as we head into 2019. In 2018, Heritage Aggregates pricing improved 3% in line with our expectations. This improvement was achieved despite the negative impact of product mix, which lowered the company's full year average selling price by $0.13 per ton or 1%.

Underlying market demand should continue to support ongoing pricing momentum. Acquired operations shipped 13,000,000 tons at selling prices 10% to 15% below the corporate average, but in line with our expectations. We're pleased to report that integration is substantially complete and synergy realization has exceeded our expectations at the time of acquisition. Full year cement shipments increased 1% as an extended maintenance outage at our Midlothian plant put us behind early in the year and was further compounded by record precipitation in Texas in February, September October. Cement pricing increased 3%, consistent with our expectations.

Our cement operations will continue to benefit from a tight supply environment as forecasted demand is expected to exceed domestic production capacity by 10% in 2019. Ready mix concrete shipments increased slightly in 2018 as weather dampened construction activity. Pricing improvement of 1.5% is best described as a tale of 2 markets, where solid pricing gains in Colorado were partially offset by product and geographic mix in Texas. In Colorado, project delays and permitting issues negatively impacted our asphalt and paving business throughout 2018 as more contractors bid on both a reduced number of as well as the more geographically concentrated Colorado Department of Transportation projects. This transitory situation should improve in 2019 with greater Colorado DOT funding and more dispersed public works.

We remain highly confident in the strength of the Colorado market. I'll now turn the call over to Jim to discuss more specifically our full year financial results. Jim?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Ward. The Building Materials business achieved record products and services revenues of $3,712,000,000 This is a 7% increase over 2017 and the company's 9th consecutive year of revenue growth. Reported gross profit decreased slightly and included a $19,000,000 negative impact related to selling acquired inventory after it was marked up to fair value as part of acquisition accounting. The acquired Bluegrass operations contributed $149,000,000 of product revenues and adjusted gross margins comparable with our heritage Mid Atlantic and Southeast operations. Overall aggregates product gross margin was 25.8%, a 230 basis point reduction compared with the prior year.

Weather disruptions and higher diesel expenses combined with lower inventory build and the acquired inventory adjustment negatively impacted our cost and efficiency profile. As Ward mentioned, our Texas cement operations benefited from pricing and modest volume growth. Production efficiencies more than offset increased natural gas, freight and raw material costs leading to a 100 basis point expansion of product gross margin to 32.5%. For the 3rd year in a row, Magnesia Specialties posted record revenues and profitability as the business benefited from strong domestic steel production and increased global demand for magnesia chemical products. Notably, international sales represented 35% of total chemical sales, up from 20% just 4 years ago.

Pricing improvements and production efficiencies contributed to a 110 basis point expansion in product gross margin to 38.3%. Consistent with SOAR, we continually evaluate our asset portfolio to ensure our business is positioned to generate industry leading operational and financial performance. Accordingly, in December, we recorded a $12,000,000 non cash charge in other operating expenses for the West Group. This charge was related to asset and portfolio rationalizations within our Southwest ready mix concrete business. Martin Marietta continues to create shareholder value through value enhancing acquisitions, prudent organic investment and the opportunistic deployment of free cash flow through growing dividends and share repurchases all while returning to our target leverage ratio.

In 2018, we deployed $376,000,000 of capital into our business and returned nearly $217,000,000 to our shareholders through both an increased dividend and the repurchase of 522,000 shares of our common stock. Since the announcement of our share repurchase program in February 2015, we have returned more than $1,400,000,000 to shareholders through a combination of meaningful and sustainable dividends and share repurchases. For the 12 months ended December 2018, our ratio of consolidated net debt to consolidated EBITDA as defined in the applicable credit agreement was 2.76 times, which is modestly above the top end of our target leverage ratio. Weather headwinds contributed to lower than anticipated 4th quarter EBITDA and as a result, our leverage ratio was slightly higher than expected despite reducing debt by $90,000,000 during the quarter. For 2019, both higher EBITDA and additional debt repayments will drive leverage lower, placing the company within its targeted 2 to 2.5 times leverage ratio by year end.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Ward to discuss our 2019 outlook.

Speaker 3

Jim, thanks. This year, Martin Marietta celebrates 25 years as a public company. Building on our strengths, we're well positioned to deliver another record year. As outlined in our 2019 guidance included in today's release, increased infrastructure activity and continued private sector gains in addition to a full year contribution from the former Bluegrass operations are expected to produce positive volume trends across all of our product lines and contribute to an even more favorable pricing environment across our footprint. Following more than a decade of underinvestment, we believe infrastructure construction activity, particularly for aggregates intensive highways and streets is poised for meaningful growth in 2019 and beyond.

The infrastructure market represented only 39% of 2018 aggregate shipments, well below the company's most recent 10 year average of 46%. Funding provided by the Fixing America's Surface and Transportation Act or FAST Act, combined with actions taken at the state and local levels has resulted in an acceleration in public lettings and contract awards in our key states of Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Of note, we've not seen any meaningful delays in awarded contracts or construction spending resulting from the recent federal government shutdown. Our key states tend to be less dependent on federal support for highway capital projects. Federal funding provides less than 50% of annual state DOT outlays for Texas and North Carolina, 2 of our largest states by revenues.

The Texas DOT expects to let $9,600,000,000 in fiscal year 2019, up over $2,000,000,000 from the prior fiscal year. Construction growth in Texas will further benefit from large scale design build projects in and around Dallas Fort Worth. The North Carolina DOT has over $4,000,000,000 letting scheduled for fiscal 2019, of which over half will be let in key Eastern Martin Marietta markets. States continue to play an expanded role in infrastructure investment. Incremental funding at the state level through bond issuances, toll roads and tax initiatives should grow at a faster rate than federal funding, leading to increased growth opportunities for our company.

Our top 10 states, which accounted for 85% of total building materials revenues in 2018, have all introduced incremental transportation funding measures within the last 5 years. Most recently, voters approved 79% of the state and local transportation initiatives on the November ballot, providing over $30,000,000,000 of targeted transportation funding across the nation. Rebuilding our nation's infrastructure is good for the economy, creates jobs and has bipartisan support. With the government now reopened, we're hopeful that meaningful progress will be made to advance a federal bill with a comprehensive, sustainable and sufficient funding mechanism to address our nation's unmet infrastructure needs. Although we'll not see any meaningful uplift in shipments in 2019 should an infrastructure bill be enacted this year and our 2019 outlook does not factor in any such benefit.

New funding will provide better visibility for large scale projects and further extend the construction cycle over the next several years. Martin Marietta's private sector activity in 2019 should benefit from full employment gains and population growth across the Sunbelt. Non residential construction activity, which represented 33% of 2018 heritage aggregate shipments should increase in both the commercial and heavy industrial sectors for the next several years as we continue to benefit from robust distribution center, warehouse, data center and wind energy projects in Texas, the Carolinas, Georgia and Iowa. Both the Architectural Billings Index and the Dodge Momentum Index indicate healthy commercial and institutional construction activity in 2019. Continued federal regulatory approvals of large energy sector projects in Texas, particularly along the Gulf Coast should notably contribute to increased heavy building materials consumption with construction activity on 5 projects to begin in earnest in 2019 and continue for several years thereafter.

Martin Marietta is well positioned to supply the aggregates, cement and ready mix concrete needs for these multi year energy projects. Residential construction, which accounted for 22% of 2018 heritage aggregate shipments should continue to grow within our geographic footprint, particularly now that mortgage rates have stabilized. Our leading Southeastern and Southwestern states offer opportunities for gains in both multi and single family housing, driven by available land, an overall business friendly environment and fewer regulatory barriers. Permits are the best indicator of future housing construction activity. Currently, housing unit permit growth for our top 10 states, namely Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Florida, South Carolina, Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska outpaces the national average for all three residential categories, total, multifamily and single family.

On a national level, housing starts improved over 2017 levels, but remain well below the 50 year historical average of $1,500,000 Population growth, increased household formations and low inventories should continue to drive demand for residential construction. In summary, for 2019, we expect aggregate shipments to increase 6% to 8% with growth in all 3 primary construction end use markets. Specifically, infrastructure shipments are expected to increase in the high single digits. Non residential shipments are expected to increase in the mid to high single digits and residential shipments are expected to increase in the mid single digits. Annual price increases have already widely garnered market support, most importantly in Texas, the Carolinas and Southeast.

To that end, we expect aggregates pricing to increase in a range of 3% to 5%. We expect cement product revenues to range from $400,000,000 to $430,000,000 and gross profit from 130,000,000 to $150,000,000 as our cement operations benefit from underlying market fundamentals, weather deferred shipments, solid pricing momentum and new sales outlets. Ready Mix Concrete and Asphalt Paving revenues are expected to be in the range of $1,200,000,000 to $1,300,000,000 and gross profit is expected to be 130,000,000 dollars to $150,000,000 The Magnesia Specialties business is expected to have another great year with product revenues of $270,000,000 to $280,000,000 and gross profit of $100,000,000 to $105,000,000 These expectations reflect continued strength in global magnesia demand and domestic steel utilization. On a consolidated basis, we expect total revenues of $4,480,000,000 to $4,680,000,000 and EBITDA of $1,170,000,000 to $1,280,000,000 To conclude, 2018 was a momentous year for Martin Marietta with the best financial and heritage safety performance in our company's history. Martin Marietta is confident in its outlook and prospects for continued growth and value creation.

We believe our leading market positions, disciplined pricing strategy and successful execution of our strategic plan have positioned our company for continued success. Attractive population and employment trends combined with positive momentum from state DOTs should drive construction growth in our key regions that outpaces the nation as a whole and contribute to a favorable environment as we work towards another record year in 2019. If the operator will now provide the required instructions, we will turn our attention to addressing your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank

Speaker 3

Our

Speaker 1

first question comes from Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research Group. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions today. The first question is just on guidance. What gives you confidence on the parameters that you outlined for 2019 guidance? And what would be helpful is to better understand what is and isn't baked in the guidance ranging from, I hate to say weather, but weather to capital projects and other factors that could impact the overall guidance?

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Catherine. Thank you for the question. I think several things underscore our confidence. Number 1 is what we see simply emerging on infrastructure. If we look at what is going to happen in Texas and Colorado and North Carolina and Florida, those are big numbers this year.

If we look at Texas, they're looking at lettings of $9,600,000,000 this year, that's considerably over last year. Prop 7 funding is $4,200,000,000 Prop 1 funding at $1,300,000,000 tremendous numbers. If we look at North Carolina, $4,100,000,000 worth of lettings and $2,300,000,000 of that in Eastern North Carolina, which is an important state for us. Last year, Colorado really ran into a cash flow problem that they do not anticipate this year. Last year, they basically had $384,000,000 worth

Speaker 4

of lettings, this year

Speaker 3

$653,000,000 next year, Catherine $964,000,000 So when we're seeing those types of numbers in the infrastructure, it really does give you a lot of confidence, particularly in those states. But the other thing that I think we feel moved by is the strength that we continue to see both in non residential and residential. If we're looking at res, total permits in our states were up 9%, which is almost double the average in the U. S. Single families up 7%, again 2% better than the overall U.

S. And multifamily is up 15% in our markets. That's almost 3 times the national rate. So remember non res in many respects will continue to follow that. So if we think about what we believe has happened with infrastructure, returning to something that feels more like a 10 year average of nicely over 45% of our business, a healthy non res, good solid res.

And then we come back and look at simply what customers are telling us. So if we're listening to our customers, what I'll hear is this, our customers along the Atlantic Coast have 3,000,000 tons more work right now than they did last year. If we're looking at the Southwest, that number feels more like 15,000,000 tons. And if we're looking at our aggregates business in the Rocky Mountains, last year at this point of time, they had about 50% of their revenues booked. This year more like 64%.

So, we've got some very attractive numbers, but you asked the right question, Catherine, that is how do you factor in weather? Here's how we think about that. We're thinking and planning for wetter than usual. We're not planning for apocalyptic, but we are planning for wetter than usual. We think based on the last several years, that's simply a sensible way to go about it.

And that's the way that we've tried to factor it. But emerging infrastructure, continued private sector gains, a full year of bluegrass and modestly better weather is really the way that we're trying to capture the year. I hope that's helpful and responsive.

Speaker 5

Yes, it is. And then my follow-up question is more on free cash as we look forward. Could you discuss the free cash ramp in 2019? What are the relevant puts and takes and thoughts on uses of cash in 2019? Thank you.

Speaker 3

I'll ask Jim to address that with a more specificity. Look, the short answer is we're going to have an embarrassment of Rich's problems when we think about that, because if you think about the share cash this business kicks off, it's very attractive. I think we're well positioned to capitalize our business. We obviously raised a dividend, obviously, last year. But let me turn to my colleague, Jim Nicholas.

He can speak to that in more detail.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Catherine. As always, the first call on our capital is the right acquisition. That's there's no change that that'll be the case in 2019 and beyond. Beyond that reinvesting in the business, our CapEx spending should be close to flat versus 2018. We spent $376,000,000 in 2018 to be flat in 2019, dollars 350,000,000 to $400,000,000 so same zip code.

And then next as I march down our priority list returning capital to shareholders. As Ward mentioned, we increased the dividend last August by 9%, much larger than our typical increase. I'd expect something larger than typical this year subject to obviously our Board approval. And then in 2018 we resumed our share repurchase program. We bought back 100,000,000 dollars of our shares in 2018.

We'll likely continue to repurchase shares in 2019 as well. And then of course we'll continue deleveraging by paying down debt. We're above our target leverage ratio and we're going to pay down debt until we get into that range. So those are the areas we're going to focus on. As you know, our cash flow is back half loaded.

So that's when most of the cash deployment will occur. And just kind of level set some changes in 2019 versus 2018. We contributed $150,000,000 discretionary funds to our pension plan in 2018 that will not repeat in 2019 And slightly offsetting that, we expect our cash taxes to be closer to $90,000,000 in 2019 versus something closer to $30,000,000 in 2018. So hopefully that answers your question.

Speaker 1

It does. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Catherine, thanks a lot.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next

Speaker 6

I know you guys are baking in the kind of range of 3% to 5% pricing in aggregates. But can you give us any additional color on your view on pricing in Aggregates as well as on Cement pricing as you look into 2019?

Speaker 3

Sure. I think it's going to be an attractive pricing year this year. One thing that's worth saying in the 3 to 5, keep in mind, when we bought Bluegrass, we said their pricing was about 10% to 15% below our heritage pricing. So, when you're looking at 3% to 5%, remember that's fully loaded with Bluegrass's pricing in there that's lower than ours. So number 1, factor that in.

Number 2, even if you're looking at the Q4 this year, and I think this is an important thing to remember from a momentum perspective. If you just look at it optically, you see pricing in the 4th quarter in the mid-2s. If you take out some of the product mix that we saw in the quarter and what I really mean by that, Trey, is we sold a large amount of sand in Central Texas and some sand in parts of North Carolina that's simply a lower priced product. If we really even it out for product mix, we were seeing pricing even in the Q4 more around 4%, which is the same thing that we would have seen for the full year. So keep in mind that was 4% in 2018 on what was basically flat heritage volumes.

We're going into a year where I think volumes will be better. Obviously, we've done some transactions during the course of the year. So we feel very good about where we sit with pricing going into the year. The other half of your question was relative to cement and how we see that. And as a reminder, what we put out is an $8 a ton cement price increase effective April 1.

We feel very solid about that and where we sit on that today. And I think that's particularly true in North Texas. I think we feel fine about Central Texas, but I think we feel particularly strong about North Texas. One thing that's worth adding is we have added some outlets to our cement business as well. As you may recall, we build a new sales yard in South Texas near Houston at New Caney last year.

We're selling both stone and cement at that facility and we will be selling some cement in West Texas out of Odessa as well. So again, we think we see a healthy pricing environment in both aggregates and in cement across our footprint. I hope that helps, Trey.

Speaker 6

Yes, absolutely, Ward. Thank you. And just for clarity, you did mention a 1 percent negative mix, I think, from product mix on pricing. As you look into 'nineteen, is there any impact that you're expecting on the mix front there?

Speaker 3

No, we're not. So the only impact that I would specifically call out is what I've already said relative to Bluegrass, but it's separate and distinct from that, not so much Trent.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up, looking at the guidance, it looks like you guys are assuming something around the 60% incremental margins range for the aggregates business. And I know that has been your outlook for the long term incrementals in this business for a long time. More specifically, as we look into this year, can you talk about some of the key drivers, kind of the puts and takes that you see in that ramp in profitability versus what we saw in 2018?

Speaker 3

Yes. Trey, if you go back and think about it, we actually came into 2018 and we said the incrementals would not be at 60% coming into 2018 for a host of reasons, including what was going on, we believe, geographically. What we're seeing this year is more of a typical return to the types of business that we would expect to see in the Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, Bluegrass obviously helps in that respect as well. So I think number 1, if we simply look and see where some of the geographic positioning is going to be, we think that's helpful. Number 2, 2, candidly last year when you had apocalyptic weather, it was tough at times to keep the cost profile under control the way that we would like to.

We see that being candidly more normalized this year. Energy was also spiky last year in some respects. We don't anticipate the same degree of spikiness and energy. And I think we expect another very attractive year in Colorado. One of the things that we've been able to do in Colorado over the last several years is really be very constructive commercially with what we're able to do with our aggregates business there.

As you may recall, when we acquired that business, it was actually on the lower end of some of our pricing. That's a tough market to get into and we've been very constructive. We think we're getting fair returns in that market. I think that will help our incrementals as well.

Speaker 6

Okay. I'll pass it along. Thank you very much and good luck.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Trey.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stanley Elliott of Stifel. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Ward, you mentioned the Bluegrass integration and how well that's been tracking.

Speaker 4

I think I remember like $15,000,000 of synergies.

Speaker 7

Can you update us on what you found out with that asset thus far? And then I guess my second question would be, you mentioned M and A in the coming year or at least kind of at the top of the capital priorities. What are you seeing in that market after what's been a pretty active go this cycle?

Speaker 3

Good morning, Stanley. Thanks for the question. A couple of things. Yes, look, I remember that $15,000,000 synergy number too. So I'm right there with you.

Stanley, we're going to do better than that. We're certainly tracking ahead of And I really need to complement our integration teams and people in the Mideast, Mid Atlantic and Southeast who are making that happen. So if we step back and say, how has Bluegrass done? Bluegrass has done extraordinarily well. We were looking at a year last year, there was one of the wettest years in Maryland, a very wet year in Georgia, and we were still seeing EBITDA margins from that business that were consistent with what we thought we would see going into the business.

So, we're excited about the way that that's working. Again, I think we're tracking ahead. Well, I know we're tracking ahead on synergies. So I'm pleased with that. So there's no aspect of that business that has been troubling or surprising to us.

In fact, it's hit everything that we thought it would. Looking forward, here's what I would say, Stanley, people look at a company like ours or frankly others in the sector. And part of what I spelled out in our opening comments is we've been a public company this year for 25 years. And during that 25 years, we haven't done quite a 100 transactions, but we're in the zip code of having done 100 transactions in this industry. And there's still room to go.

And what I would say is we've seen 25 years of consolidation. I think you still got another 10 years plus of seeing that type of activity. Now the size and scope of it will always be it will ebb and flow and oftentimes it's going to be opportunistic. Because family businesses will sell for a host of reasons. They may sell because of succession.

They may sell because of tax reasons. They may sell because of cyclical reasons. So you never know going into a year exactly what you're going to see. But what I would say is this, financially, I think we are extraordinarily well positioned to continue to be a leader in industry consolidation. And the other thing that I would say is, I think in attractive markets that you would like to see us grow in, I believe we have the regulatory capacity to do that as well.

So I'm not going to make predictions just yet on the sheer scope and size of transactions we may see. This year, a couple of years ago, I indicated I thought it would be a year of large transactions and mercifully I was right. But I think it will continue to be a year of transactions. But you know what, I'm going to say something like that for the next several years because I think it's simply right and true. Does that help Stanley?

Speaker 7

It sure does. Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

I'll pass it along.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nishu Sood, Associate Bank. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Thank you. So just thinking about the volumes in 2018, flat heritage, and if there hadn't been some of the issues with the underlying market demand, you might have ended up closer to mid single digits. How are you thinking about just how depressed the volumes were in 2018 and whether or not that could drive any makeup volumes in 2019. I know it doesn't always work that way. But is it the are you assuming that some continuation of some raininess maybe kind of keeps us to just that mid single digit volume growth?

Or is there any potential that the ease of the comps in 'eighteen might benefit 'nineteen?

Speaker 3

Nishu, first, welcome to the call. We are delighted to have you following the sector and welcome you. With respect to your question, I think it's a really good one. And what I would say is, back to the notion, planning for a wetter than usual year. So I think that would tamp things down a little bit otherwise, but I think the numbers still are attractive.

As you hear the things that really move me as I think about when we go back and we talk about some of those numbers I mentioned before, looking at almost 20,000,000 tons of business that customers say that they have at this time of the year that they didn't have last year. Those are really big numbers. And most of that's driven by public work and part of what you know about public work that's so different from others. When public work is committed, public work is going to go. So, if we're looking at that degree of public work in Texas, in the Carolinas, in Colorado, in Georgia, in Florida, And that really does give you a lot of confidence.

The other piece of it that I continue to think is moving is, we see good, steady, non residential light work. But also, when we're looking at non residential work, we continue to see what we feel like is going to be pretty attractive work that's coming our way on the heavy side of that as well. And part of what we haven't spent a lot of time talking about are those large projects in the Gulf. But we've talked about a dozen or more of those projects. But I'll tell you right now, as we think about it, is 3 of them are already underway and we have them under contracts.

There are 5 more that we see decisions being made on in 2019. If we just look at those 5 and that's Magnolia LNG, Golden Pass, Exxon has another big project down there. There's LNG, Rio Grande LNG and Driftwood. If we just look at those 5 and really tally up what those numbers look like, that's about 1,800,000 cubic yards of ready mix. It's about 8,600,000 tons of aggregates and nearly 500,000 tons of cement.

So anywhere we pivot right now, whether it's infrastructure, non res or res on those big three, The numbers and the activity and what we believe is coming looks pretty compelling. And when we go back and tally up what we feel like is some of the work that almost always in a year like we had last year gets pushed to the right. It doesn't go away. It just gets pushed to the right. I think those are the things that really underscore BioWare at 6 to 8.

And again, we'll have to see how weather plays in there. But again, I think we've taken a very responsible view of weather. Is that helpful, Nishu?

Speaker 9

No, no, that's great. And kind of continuing along those lines, just wanted to ask into some other assumptions as you're thinking about them for 2019. On the volume side, the constraints at the contractor level logistics issues, what kind of assumptions are you making there for 2019? And then obviously with the backup in oil, what are you thinking about for the margin impact of potentially lower diesel and other energy costs?

Speaker 3

Yes. Let's stick to that. 1, I would say relative to what's going on with labor, let's talk about contracts and labor. The AGC put out a survey results here not long ago and 79% of construction firms are planning to expand their payrolls in 2019. So, we think that's a very, very good sign that they recognize they have to have the talent.

And in many instances, they're simply going to have to pay more for it. And that's something that we've anticipated. With respect to logistics, we do see logistics getting better. We don't see them wholly going away, but we see them remarkably better. So, Nishu, if you think back to it, one of the primary issues that we ran into last year was rail and the movement of rail because we move more stone by rail than anyone else.

And what I'll tell you is the performance and the conversations that we've had, whether it's been with CSX or BNSF or UP have all been very, very constructive and we see a better considerably better and improved transportation year in 2019 than we saw last year. You raised a good point relative to energy and we'll talk about that for a second. I mean just to give you a snapshot in Q4. Q4 relative to diesel and that is the biggest single slog of what we deal with in energy. Q4 was $5,100,000 higher, 23% above last year on 11% more gallons.

And of course, the gallons for us was primarily being driven by the acquisition of Bluegrass. But here's your snapshot and here's what I think is particularly relevant. If we look at January 2019 diesel prices, they were $0.33 below where they were in Q4. So, it's a practical matter, I think you're entirely right. We're going to have probably an easier build as we go through the year.

If you're really wondering how in the world we utilize that 47,500,000 gallons of diesel, it's probably worth just noting somewhere in the back in Q1, we used 10,000,000 gallons in Q2, 12.7 in Q3, 12.8 and in Q4, 11.9. The one thing that I would remind you is in Q1, we did not have Bluegrass. So what I'm trying to do is give you a sense very directly to your question, what we see happening with labor, what we see happening with transportation and what some of the inputs are relative to fuel. I've probably given you 10% more than you bargained for, but I hope that was helpful.

Speaker 9

That's great.

Speaker 10

Thank you

Speaker 9

for the details.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Nishu.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Derek Shmois of Longbow Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hi. Thank you. I just want

Speaker 11

to ask about downstream and some of your margin assumptions in ready mix?

Speaker 3

Garik, are you there?

Speaker 11

Yes. Sorry, can you hear me?

Speaker 3

I can hear you now. I'm sorry, you broke up on me for one second there. Can you repeat what you said?

Speaker 11

Yes. I was looking for more color in your downstream businesses, particularly in margins with expectations for asphalt, particularly with some potential decline on inputs and then on ready mix considering 2018 a challenging year for ready mix and ready mix margins with the expectation for 2019?

Speaker 3

Let's talk about a couple of things. We'll hit asphalt first, then we'll pivot over to ready mix. So, if we're really thinking about asphalt and some of the key points that I think of as we go into the year, In 2019, we've had 30 asphalt projects that are planning about 1,200,000 tons and last year it was more like 17,000 and about 549,000. So what I would tell you year over year that's looking considerably better. The footprint we have, if you recall, the only asphalt play we have is up and down the front range in Colorado.

So again, it's a very refined play and we think we're in the right place for that. One of the issues that I had outlined before is Colorado DOT is in a very different place this year than they were last year. Planned advertisements as they refer to them, they are lettings as you and I would typically refer to them. That's $653,000,000 is well above last year's at 334. And again, part of what I outlined before is, it's going to surge up to 964 by the time we get to 20.

So, if we're looking at a backlog right now in Asphalt and Paving, it's up over 50% from where it was last year. So, keep in mind, part of what I spoke to is that there were fewer, but larger projects last year that had more people bidding on fewer projects. We see a very different situation in Colorado this year and we think it's going to return to something that feels much more as it would have historically and more normalized. With respect to ready mix, I would say 2 very distinct things. We have ready mix in the Southwest.

We have ready mix also in Colorado. I mentioned in the prepared remarks that really is a tale of 2 businesses, right? And that was you were seeing attractive pricing in Colorado, you were seeing tougher pricing in parts of Texas. I think a lot of what was happening in Texas was in fact weather driven. What I would say in Texas is this, we see strong infrastructure work in Texas.

We've got nice looking backlogs there, good work at places like the Grand Parkway in Houston, Hobby Airport. But the area that we think is going to be most moving in ready mix this year will be in the non res sector. So for example, if we look in the metroplex and you asked specifically about Dallas Fort Worth, can you sense of its school bonds in Dallas, dollars 1,500,000,000 Dallas County, Tarrant County, which is Fort Worth, dollars 1,200,000,000 Collin County, right there in the same area, dollars 1,800,000,000 and over 19,000,000 square feet in the construction pipeline on just broad industrial distribution type work. We also see good steady residential work in Dallas Fort Worth and what we think is an improved res environment in San Antonio. And the other thing that we've done is we've restructured that business a bit as well.

So we've consolidated 5 Texas districts into the same nomenclature you would typically hear us speak to in aggregates. You'll hear us talk about North, Central and South. So, we think we've got a more attractive underlying business demand. We actually think the pricing situation is better there as well. And so what you'll see us doing effective April 1 is going out with varying degrees of price increases, but tending to be somewhere between 5 dollars $10 a cubic yard.

Garrett, was that helpful?

Speaker 12

Yes, that's very helpful. Just

Speaker 11

on infrastructure, if you look out over the next 2 to 3 years, recognizing that you're seeing very good growth and extremely healthy backlogs for 2019, but with the FAST Act set to expire in 2020, I'm just wondering if you could speak to the sustainability of growth in a maybe more uncertain federal funding environment over the next several years?

Speaker 3

The one thing that I would encourage you to look at is the way that these different states deal with that very much themselves. And what you'll see is number 1, I think we will have a successor bill to the FAST Act. So I don't sit here with a high degree of concern around what happens in that respect. The thing that I do think is most telling and helpful is to look more specifically at the way different states fund transportation differently and how much of what states are doing are driven either by the federal government's budget or state governments. And what you'll find when you look at states like Texas or North Carolina or Florida is that they are remarkably not dependent on what's coming out of the federal government.

In fact, I think some questions were put to people at NCDOT and others and they said, okay, what would have happened had this federal shutdown extended? And NCDOT would have said, look, we could have kept going and we would have been just fine. So I guess what I would say, when we refer back to that nearly $30,000,000,000 worth of funding that was passed in November, when you look at that and consider that each one of our top 10 states over the last 5 years has put in additional funding mechanisms. And I still believe of all the things that the administration and the Congress can find common ground on, transportation infrastructure is still one of them. We look at that even beyond the expiration of the FAST Act right now and we do not have a high degree of concern around that, Gary.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Garrett.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Colin Barron of Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Speaker 13

Hey, guys. It's actually Phil. I appreciate a lot of color you provided on your footprint exposed to some of the more attractive demographic in resi. But the mid single digit growth for next year seems pretty strong implies an acceleration from 2018. Resi, you're probably is probably the end market, you have a little less line of sight versus, let's say, commercial or infrastructure.

So you just want to get some comfort on how confident you are on the demand front for resi in particular?

Speaker 3

But the primary thing that we think of on resi Phil is really what to the builder communities look like and we're seeing a continued very attractive drive on that. So remember, it's not as much just building of the home, it's the building of the subdivision. So what's going into the roads? What's going to curb and gutter? What's going into the utilities?

So again, if we're looking at our top 10 states and we're looking at permitting and remember permits lead starts. So what we would see in permits in our leading 10 states is they're up 9% versus the U. S. Gain of up 4%. So important gains in our top 10 in both single and multifamily activity and the single is going to be something that we care deeply about.

8 of our 10 states are very positive on this with Florida, Georgia and Indiana even up double digits in both Texas and North Carolina are up 7%. So again, we see very attractive housing activity and we feel like that's going to continue to be our friend in 2019. Does that help?

Speaker 13

Yes, that's helpful color. And just sticking with the theme on the private side, we really appreciate the color that you provide on some of these bigger energy projects that you have in the pipeline for non res. But curious, implicit in your guide, how much of that for these projects that are kind of secured at this point are reflected in your guide versus some of the other projects you highlighted that could get a green light in 2019, be incremental, provide some upside? And when we think about these projects, I would imagine they're going to be multiyear projects. But any color on how to think about how long do these projects usually last would be very helpful.

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Here's what I would say, Phil. If they're secured and we've got them under contract, they're in the guidance. If they're not secured and they're more of a issue would be nice to have, that's not in the guidance. So that's a pretty right line on the way for you to think about that.

With respect to the tenure of these projects, they tend to be multi year. So I think if you're just thinking about it very broadly, I would think about it in 2 to 3 year tranches.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks a lot. Appreciate

Speaker 3

it. Thank you, Phil.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Good morning, everyone. This is Ben Burud on for Jerry.

Speaker 4

Good morning.

Speaker 8

We're just hoping you guys could expand on the bridge that you lay out on slide 11 in your presentation. So it looks like heritage aggregates profits were down about $29,000,000 year over year. Can you just give us an idea how much was lower production versus a year ago? And what were the other variables that offset the pricing improvement in the quarter? Yes.

Speaker 4

So it's Jim. The primary driver in comparing versus prior year was the inventory build. We built inventory in Q4 of 2017 that did not repeat in Q4 of 2018 Now it was about 3,300,000 tons.

Speaker 3

So that was

Speaker 4

a $60,000,000 headwind in the quarter alone. Now I don't like really looking at this for it's very volatile quarter to quarter. The inventory build change can swing results quite a bit. It did that this quarter. So it's transit nature, but it did happen in this year.

The other big item we've got for this quarter Q4 of 2018, higher group medical insurance costs and to a lesser degree higher workman's comp. Again, that was about $10,000,000 for this quarter versus prior year quarter 4. And I would say that's more of a we're more looking at Q4 2017 was pretty favorable comp for those two things. And so it's normalized in Q4 2018 this year, but from a comp perspective, it's a headwind.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then on Slide 13, you're guiding to EBITDA growth that seems to be substantially slower than the gross profit growth you highlight. Can you provide some color as to what is driving that disconnect?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think we had some in 2018 we had some EBITDA wins with some settlements and some sales of property that helped improve our EBITDA. We don't expect those to repeat in 2019. So that would account for the difference. Those were EBITDA and net gross profit in 2018. So that's why you're seeing the difference in 2019.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Ben.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Thalhimer of Thompson Davis. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for squeezing.

Speaker 3

Hi Adam.

Speaker 10

The first question on aggregates pricing. Ward, do you

Speaker 1

think that

Speaker 10

kind of building as you go through the year or do you think it jumps up in Q1 and just kind of stays constant?

Speaker 3

I think it can vary from market to market. I think there are a number of places that aggregates price increases are going into effect in April. So I think you'll see some movement there. I think there's always the prospect in different markets for mid years depending on how tight specific markets get. So, I don't think we're in a position to talk specifically about where or whether those will occur.

But I think it's a practical matter. April is where I would start really pegging that type of movement in, Adam.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then also

Speaker 10

wanted to ask about ready mix concrete margins, down a bit in Q4. Just I wanted to get your thoughts on when that reverses. I mean, is it possible ready mix margins are down in the first half and then up in the second half? Or do you think it recovers faster than that?

Speaker 3

Well, I would say a couple of things. One, remember where the ready mix business is, right? So we had a very wet October, in fact, the wettest October in 124 years in Texas, and that's our single largest ready mix market. But historically is a very large ready mixed month. So you take a puff in the chops there from mother nature.

The other thing that I would remind you is the balance of our ready mix is really up and down the front range. So what I would tell you is don't expect a line out of ready mix in Colorado in January, February and March. So, as you look at the business and its natural build over the course of the year, given the fact that a decent bit of the business is Rocky Mountain driven. I would clearly be looking more to Q2, Q3 and early Q4 for that business. I did mention before, I think we do have a more attractive pricing environment in Texas this year than we did last year.

I think I mentioned earlier that effective April 1, we're looking in many respects for $5 to $10 a cubic yard. That's going to help on the margin. And the other thing that I did mention before is we have had some restructuring of that business and we've gone from 5 districts to 3. So remember the aim is really to be in those mid teens relative to margins in that business, Adam. So that's how I would think about that longer term.

Speaker 10

Perfect. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Bibb of CJS Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Hi, Ward.

Speaker 4

In

Speaker 12

the presentation, you referenced the improving backlogs. And then in the Q and A, you've talked about different components where the backlog is going up. Kind of the what's the overall increase in backlog and revenue?

Speaker 3

Yes, we don't keep it in those exact terms, Craig. In many respects, what I'm doing is trying to give you a snapshot of what we're hearing relative to our customers with respect to their backlog. So what I'm trying to do is give a good snapshot of where those customers are saying, we've got big work that's coming. This is what the work looks like compared to where it was last year. And that's why I called out in particular over 3,000,000 tons that customers have articulated in the Mid Atlantic division, 15,000,000 tons in the Southwest, over 1,000,000 tons in the Midwest.

And then I did talk to a degree about how much business has been booked in the Rocky Mountains this year versus last year. But I'd rather not go into specifics on revenue, etcetera. We'll talk about that as they play out during the course of the year, but I think these underlying trends give you a tremendous sense and vision of where the business is likely going.

Speaker 12

And with those larger projects, have you locked in pricing? Is that part of your confidence in pricing? I

Speaker 3

mean, typically on larger projects, what you will do is you will price on an annual basis. So you will go in, if it's a multi year project, you will give prices per size per year and then you will have escalators on those as well. So the answer is yes.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then with the 3 large projects on the Gulf Coast that are underway, and you have 2 more coming. When do the next 2 come in? And should we be looking for volume to accelerate in Q1 given you have any really easy comparison?

Speaker 3

Well, actually, what I had said was there are 3 along the Gulf that have been awarded to Martin Marietta and those are in our guidance. And what I had said was there were 5 more that have estimated start dates in 2019 that in essence we are in the running on. So again, we haven't included any of those in our guidance or any of those in what you might view as backlog or otherwise.

Speaker 12

Okay. And the 3 that are awarded, when do they kick off?

Speaker 3

I mean, the ones that are awarded are underway. So again, they would be in the guidance that we have out there today for you, Craig.

Speaker 12

Okay. Great. All right. Thanks a lot, guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Craig.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Wood of Nomura Instinet. Your line is now open.

Speaker 14

Hi, this is Mitch and Marion on for Mike. Bluegrass pricing remains about 10% to 15% below your organic average. Are you working to close this gap if possible at all? Or is there some structural reason why this gap will persist?

Speaker 3

I guess I would say a couple of things, Mitch. If you look at bluegrass pricing in Georgia, probably relatively close to our heritage pricing in Georgia. If you look at bluegrass pricing in Maryland, probably modestly below. If you look at Bluegrass pricing heritage in Kentucky, it is below. So what we're doing is we're going across the portfolio, giving you a snapshot of what it looks like when you blend it.

Obviously, you can go back and look at the history that we had in earlier acquisitions. Clearly, we try to assure that we're getting good and appropriate value for our products. You saw that in the aftermath of TXI. So, I'm trying to give you a sense of what our history has been on transactions like this and what the different geographies look like. I think that probably leads you to the conclusion that you'd like to work towards.

Speaker 4

Okay. And

Speaker 14

then resi was weak in 4Q. Did you see a rebound in January like some of the other resi focused companies that have reported already? And then any areas that are particularly weaker or stronger than others?

Speaker 3

Well, I'd say what I usually talk about the quarter that we're in right now when we come back and report. So I won't go into a lot of detail on that. The one thing that I will share with you and you probably said it as well is certainly what I have heard from the homebuilders is that they saw a pullback in Q4 when interest rates were more aggressive, but they have also said that they have seen a nice pickup since interest rates have stabilized and they have a more stable view going forward. So again, I think if we go back and look at those resi numbers that we spoke of a little while ago and looking specifically at the permits and where we sit relative to national averages. I like where we sit and it sounds like the homebuilders are at least telling publicly the type of story that tends to work very well for Martin Marietta.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And our next question comes from Brent Thielman of D. A. Davidson. Your line is now open.

Speaker 15

Great. Thank you. On the infrastructure side, Ward, has the Georgia market lived up to expectations in terms of new work hitting the street? I've seen the rim of that being an area of real promise, but had seen some delays.

Speaker 3

Yes, but I think it seems some delays, but we started to see much better activity, particularly in North Georgia last year. Remember that you've really got 2 different markets in Georgia. Market number 1 is Atlanta. Market number 2 is everything else. And I think what we're going to see this year is we're going to see a better market in the Atlanta marketplace, which we welcome because now we have a bigger footprint in the Atlanta market.

Also South Georgia has been good and steady. The T SPOS program that was put in place down there several years ago has been very attractive in parts of South Georgia and the activity particularly now that's being driven from the ports and a wider Panama Canal is helping that part of the state as well. So remember, Georgia is really Atlanta than everything else. And then the other market that's Georgia is Florida, because again, the granite in some respects, particularly in South Georgia that we're producing, finds its way into a very attractive Florida DOT market. So again, if we come back and say, what are the DOT states or states from a DOT perspective that are looking good, we would certainly put Georgia in that bucket.

But we think places like Texas and Colorado and North Carolina aren't looking good. We think they're looking extraordinary.

Speaker 15

Yes. Okay. And then, Ward, I wanted to get your bigger picture thoughts just around diversification and Texas has been around, call it, a third of the business for a while. I know it's been a fantastic market over the years and probably will continue to be here over the next couple of years. But as you point out in the deck, that market is sort of beyond mid cycle demand.

And I'm just curious, Ward, you think about Martin Marietta longer term, is that a percentage or portion of the company you're still comfortable being in?

Speaker 3

It's been an outsized percentage the last couple of years in large part because places that should have been a bigger percentage weren't at the normal percentages. So, if you look at a place like North Carolina, that's still considerably below midpoint and a place like Georgia that's considerably below midpoint and Maryland that's considerably below midpoint. As those states recover, frankly, from a percentage perspective, it may which puts Texas in a much more normalized place. And number 1, I think looking at it, as you say, bigger picture and a more holistic fashion, I think that puts Texas in a better picture. The other thing that I would remind you is we're not all over Texas.

I mean, our footprint in Texas is uniquely driven by what's going on in that Golden Triangle, where you've got just such a disproportionate amount of people there. It was interesting. We had a large meeting of our top 100 employees in Martin Marietta several years ago. And we had an economist who came in and the economist was absolutely positive that Texas was going into a recession several years ago. And what I would tell you is all of our people who live and work and breathe in Texas, and that's a lot of them by the way, looked at us and said, I don't know where he's coming from, but we don't see Texas going into recession.

We see that market the way that you do. We think it's very, very attractive. I agree it's beyond midpoint, but their population trends, their DOT budgets and otherwise dictate that they should be there. So we do not see anything in Texas that in any respect feels overbuilt to us. So I think what I would tell you is we like our Texas position and we like what we think is going to be a more return to normal for the Carolinas, Georgia and Maryland.

And we think that snapshot puts Texas in a very appropriate perspective. And I hope that was helpful, and I know that was long winded, and I apologize.

Speaker 8

Thanks for the color award, Dustin.

Speaker 3

You're welcome.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And our next question comes from Scott Schrier of Citi. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hi, good afternoon.

Speaker 3

Hi, good afternoon.

Speaker 8

Hi, good afternoon.

Speaker 4

I wanted to ask about hey, Ward. I wanted

Speaker 8

to ask about West pricing. So we have this robust aggregates pricing in Colorado that you've been talking about, which is offset by mix in Texas. And I'm curious if you could talk a little bit about I don't know how specific you can get on the aggregate pricing environment in Texas more on a like for like basis. It seems like even taking into that into account, it's a market that's maybe not having quite the robust price increases of some of your other markets. And I understand it's a very strong market, as you've said many times, across the different end markets.

But it's also it's above mid cycle from a consumption perspective. There's a decent amount of supply. So I'm curious with the amount of lettings activity expected, the Gulf Coast work, everything, do you see possibility for better pricing in Texas? Or is it a market that even with this such robust demand, it's going to be more a moderate pricing state?

Speaker 3

Yes, Budd, if you go back over the last several years, I think Texas has had somewhere between really good pricing and good pricing. And whether in the spectrum of things, we'll take anything in that zip code. I think when you compare it to Colorado, one of the candid differences is barriers to do anything heavy side in Colorado really are very, very high. And I've commented to people before there are 3 large Grand Aquarius in Denver today and in 30 years, they're probably still going to be 3 large Grand Aquarius in Denver. And I think that drives some of the delta between the two.

What I would say is this, I think Texas will continue to be an outsized performing market on volume. I think Texas pricing in the course of time continues to get better. And as I look at it, do I wish it was modestly higher? Sure. I think anybody wishes modestly higher.

But I like the trends that we've had there. I like the leading position that we have there. You know how we tend to look at a market. And if I'm thinking about the top 10 things or top 50 things that I worry about, if it gives you any comfort, Aggregate pricing in Texas is not on that top fifty worry list right now.

Speaker 8

Great. That's a helpful answer. And then my follow-up, I guess one for Jim. Wanted to talk a little bit about how you're thinking about free cash flow conversion. And I know earlier in the call, Ward said that you have a business that throws off a lot of free cash.

If I'm thinking about roughly $1,230,000,000 of EBITDA, the CapEx, the tax, the interest, and historically maybe you've been around that 25% to 35% free cash flow conversion. So

Speaker 4

do you

Speaker 8

think for 2019 given all your guidance, are we in the $400,000,000 range for free cash flow? Or if I'm thinking about working capital and other things, is it possible to get up to 500,000,000 dollars Just trying to think about how to bracket free cash flow and what you're thinking from that perspective?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think your more optimistic assumption is probably more accurate. We're going to be pretty good. 2019, we should have higher cash flow conversion, close to where you came out at.

Speaker 8

Great. That's really good to hear. Thanks a lot guys. Best of luck.

Speaker 3

Scott, thank you. As I said, we've been an embarrassment of riches when it comes to free cash flows. And you know what, we'll take that problem. It's a high class one. I want to thank you all for joining our Q4 and full year 2018 earnings conference call.

Our steadfast focus on safety, efficiency and operational excellence positions Martin Marietta to deliver continued growth, success and superior shareholder value creation. We believe 2019 will be another record year for Martin Marietta and we look forward to discussing our Q1 2019 results with you in April. As always, we're available for any follow-up questions. Thank you for your time and your continued support of Martin Marietta.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

Powered by