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JPMorgan Industrials Conference 2026

Mar 17, 2026

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Good morning. My name is Bill Peterson, U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, and we're really pleased to have MP Materials join our industrials conference. They've joined some other JP Morgan events, but this is a company that's no longer just sort of an upstream, you know, rare supplier. It's really evolved over time. First of all, we have James Litinsky, CEO of the company. He's gonna sit here for a fireside chat and answer all of our questions. Maybe, James, can you kick us off with a high-level overview of MP's business, the vertical integration strategy that I just spoke to, as well as really this great sort of unexpected, but this agreement with the U.S. government and the Department of War?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Sure. Thanks, Bill. Thanks everyone at JP Morgan. It's good to be here. Although I guess some bad weather has made it a tough couple of days. MP, we are America's rare earth magnetics champion. We have a fully vertically integrated business. We mine rare earth material. We refine it. We then send it to our magnetics facility in Texas, where we turn it into metal alloy and magnets. We are also, as part of that, building a recycling business, which we can talk about. We really have sort of the full vertical integration of the entire rare earth magnetic supply chain. There is no other company in the world, including in China, that has all of those assets and expertise under one roof. We are very unique that way.

As you mentioned, last year, we signed a deal with the Department of Defense. The Department of Defense is our largest investor, customer, and business partner. What that means is, we can get into this more, but as part of really the events of last year and the need to accelerate this supply chain and its importance, for the future of warfare and frankly, the future of the economy, we needed to really accelerate all of the efforts that MP is doing.

We signed a deal with the Department of Defense where they will provide a price floor in our midstream business, our refined products business, as well as they are 100% offtake customer for the new 10X magnetics facility that we're building, that we announced actually very recently. We're building that also in Fort Worth. We are 10x-ing our business in very short order. As part of that, they will, the DOD will be a 100% customer on a minimum profitability basis, but we will syndicate the vast majority of that to commercial industry.

Particularly as we look around the world today and see, you know, whether it's in, you know, in Iran with drone swarms, or if it's in physical AI as we see the growth of robotics, or frankly, what's happening in auto with maybe a little bit more of a switch to hybrids, you know, we have a lot of demand for rare-earth magnets, and we are the American champion delivering.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

You know, last year, maybe around this time, obviously things were sort of, I don't know, heating up a little bit ahead of all of these announcements, and I would have asked you a question about supply and demand, and I would have been particularly concerned about supply. Maybe that I'm less so now, but you've outlined just several times over the past year all these demand drivers, and you just spoke to a few of them. But, like, when you look across your end markets, what does it look like today for permanent magnets? What areas are strong? Or I'm not sure there's any that are weak, but more importantly, how should we think about the future dated demand as it relates to Physical AI? You talked about robotics, you know, drone. You know, we've hosted a couple eVTOL companies here today.

How should we think about that in your business?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

It is what we're seeing behind the scenes today is pretty extraordinary. It's, you know, fever pitch. I had thought that given, you know, given that we're now about a year since sort of the trade war stuff kicked off last year, that, you know, we might have seen that settle down. If anything, we've seen that accelerate. Sort of the big areas behind the scenes, physical AI is just, you know. There are a variety of verticals, as you mentioned, robots, drones, EV mobility, all of the things that are happening that you all are seeing, you know, we're seeing interaction on that front. You know, data centers are driving disk drives.

That's another new one that we've seen in recent months where we've—you know, some of what you're seeing out there with shortages around memory, you know, that and/or CPUs, that actually extends to a number of other aspects of the data center. We're seeing disk drive use cases go up. Then, you know, obviously across consumer electronics and some of those other use cases, it's sort of stable demand. What I would say is versus a year ago, you know, maybe or maybe really 18 months ago, kind of prior to the election, I think it appeared that the EV use case was accelerating. I think you've seen some tempering of that, obviously. You're all seeing the same thing where EVs are slowing down.

In place of that, really hybrids are making up for that and then some, because actually a hybrid motor typically uses a bigger rare earth magnet than an EV motor. We're agnostic to that. As we look behind the scenes, I'd say that versus a year ago, it's quite extraordinary. All of the use cases sort of seem to have quite exciting growth.

Obviously, just given the fact, and we can talk more about this, but, given the fact that Physical AI is a dual-use item, and so I think this is a really key point that I'd like to just end this question with, which is just that although we're in a trade détente with China right now, and rare-earth magnets are flowing to a reasonable degree, for general industrial purposes, anything that is a dual-use item is not coming out of China. If you need magnets at scale for robotics or drones, or anything that the Chinese government deems to be a dual-use case, you are not getting them today. Obviously the customer conversations around that front are pretty extraordinary as well.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, thanks for that overview. Talked a little bit about this agreement with the Department of War, but I'd like to double-click on this. This results at least within our coverage universe, sort of unmatched earnings visibility. Can you run through the different components and I guess avenues to the upside, within this?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

You talked about the price floor, but what happens when prices exceed that? You have some opportunities to drive incremental output, you know, based off some of your prior expectations around the mine site.

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Of course, the 10X agreements.

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Sure. Around the time last summer when we announced the Department of War transaction, we had a slide I love that sorta outlined our path to $650+ million of normalized EBITDA. Let me just give you the simple components of that. That $650 million was what we really viewed to be, you know, post-execution of the 10X facility and bringing online a couple, you know, the items that we'll talk about in a second that we sort of viewed our new normalized EBITDA floor of $650 million+.

The simple way you get there is with approximately 6,000 ton run rate NdPr with a 110 floor on the commodity, less or low for is cost, that gets you a little north of $400 million of EBITDA. Then the remainder is the EBITDA generation from our contracted business in the Independence Magnetics facility, which you know is GM, and we'll talk about Apple in a second. Our 10X facility. As part of our deal, as I mentioned earlier, we have a minimum profitability threshold. What that $650 did not include is any price above 110. As the commodity prices, if we have materially higher moves in NdPr, we have substantial upside in the commodity.

It did not include Upstream 60k, which is our expansion at Mountain Pass. We've made great efforts on that. You can sort of see our run rate production and you know, believe we're really on track to hitting that. It does not include our recycling business. Actually right around that time, right after that, we announced our, you know, pretty transformational deal with Apple as well, where Apple, we had been working with them for five years, putting together the pieces of a great technical partnership and business relationship where Apple will be our global supply chain partner to source recycled feedstock, so spent magnets. We're building dedicated facilities at Mountain Pass to receive that at, you know, at scale. We'll be breaking ground on that soon.

We will send material from Mountain Pass to our magnet factory at Independence Magnetics, where we'll make magnets for Apple. As part of that deal we announced, it was a, you know, $500 million worth of magnet minimum buy from Apple. Lastly, as we think about our business, all of those things that I mentioned that are not part of that $650 where there's material upside, the last piece of it I would say is, if you look at when, you know, I took this company public in the fall of 2020, we were just a concentrate business. You know, having been a hedge fund manager for 15 years, and I see one of my former partners here, so that's always fun.

You know, it was very important to us to build a thoughtful public company. You know, we came to Wall Street in the fall of 2020, and we said, "This is our long-term plan, but, you know, in the near term, we've got to move downstream. But one day, 2025 plus, we believe we can be in the magnet business, and we'll build that business." You fast-forward to today, five years later, and you look at the scale and depth of our business. I think under any standard, you know, we've dramatically outperformed what I think we conveyed to Wall Street that we might be capable of when we went public over five years.

What I would say, as we look out over the next five years, certainly over the next 12-18 months, we've got a lot of execution to do. We've really got to get this right. It's a privilege and honor to have the Department of War as, you know, all of those things, our biggest investor, customer, business partner, but there's no excuses. We must execute. We've got our hands full on that front. But as we deliver on that, I think our ability, and as we look around the world today, with the amount of capital going into defense tech, there's gonna be enormous opportunities for us to grow, our business in a variety of ways.

I think as we look out five years from now, you know, I'd like to think that our business will look as different versus today as we look versus when we went public. I think there's just We're sitting, you know, with a front row seat and the best partners you could possibly have to the, you know, most transformational business opportunity of our lives, the physical AI boom. I think we're in a really good position to find further downstream opportunities as a company, and I'm very excited about it.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Well, I certainly have more questions on midstream and some of your downstream activities, but, you know, we recently got an announcement, you know, from one of your, well, the key Australian peer with another price floor announcement as well. What do you think that does to the market? Is that even more evidence that you're gonna see just more constructive pricing long term, maybe exceeding the 110 floor?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah, it's an excellent question, Bill, because I will say there's kind of thinking back to my old hat days, there are a handful of times where something happened in the market and maybe the market didn't react or didn't fully appreciate it. Whenever I was sitting in a conference and a CEO or management team said, "Hey, X just happened. Take note." The market didn't get it. Like, take note. Usually pretty soon thereafter, the market took, you know, note. I will say the following. X just happened. Take note. What Bill just mentioned, I don't think, you know, 48 hours ago, I just don't think the market fully appreciates what happened.

What happened was Japanese industry essentially offtook almost all of Lynas' output with a price floor, a sort of non-government involved price floor, with you know obviously material upside. It appears from everything public. Basically what just happened is the Japanese magnet industry, a couple players, offtook essentially all of their output. That means a couple things. One, it means that there's a major concern around access to NdPr. Right? Not heavies, NdPr. There's a major concern that there is enough. You can see that because if you look at the amount of magnet capacity that's coming online in the West and the amount of available NdPr in the West, the math doesn't work.

If you are building a magnet factory today and you don't have a secure source of supply, odds are very high you will fail. You know, almost a certainty. What that also meant is not only is it extraordinarily bullish for the price of NdPr, and as those of you who've known me do this now for five years, commodities are commodities, you never know, and, you know, I always kind of preface price discussion with, you know, it's a commodity and nobody knows, so take me with a grain of salt. I will say that seeing that kind of reaction, you know, seeing Japanese industry take down their supply, that is a huge indicator.

It fits with, for those who are following our industry closely, on our call a few weeks ago, we announced that we have a new strategic partnership with a large, you know, industrial and technology company that wanted a huge amount, much more than we could have given them, of our NdPr. I think you're really seeing the beginning stages of a global squeeze on NdPr, which should be super bullish for prices. Certainly more bullish than maybe the reaction. As well as a recognition that the magnetics business that we're building, that the strategy that we've undertaken that, you know, frankly, was validated by the Department of War in wanting to accelerate us, vertical integration matters. You don't solve the problem until you solve the problem.

You can have all the rare earths in the world, but if you don't have magnet capability, you haven't solved the problem. You can have all the magnet factories in the world, but if you don't have the feedstock, you know, you can't make magnets. At MP, we have put all of these pieces together. There is no company like ours that has done that. We will be able to have an attractive magnetics business, and we certainly have our downside protected, whereas others trying to compete will scramble for, frankly, unavailable feedstock. It puts us in a really extraordinary position. Obviously we're excited about that, but that would be my reaction to the news of 48 hours ago.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. One aspect to build magnets obviously is having your stable supply, which actually for you is yourself. How is the midstream going? What gives you confidence in achieving run rate levels later this year? How should we think about any potential upside, whether it's through efficiency gains or maybe incremental investments?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

You know, as we said on the call a few weeks ago, we exited the year at approximately a 4,000 ton run rate. The vast majority of what we produce we're now refining. That ramp is going extraordinarily well. If you think about from when we commissioned that to today and the scale that is approximately 4,000 tons, metric tons of material, it's been going really well. We've got a bit more to go throughout the remainder of this year to get that to, you know, what we expect our normalized output to be. That is just sort of standard blocking and tackling some material handling.

There are, you know, few bottlenecks in the process of things that we're gonna, you know, get some incremental equipment or some changes to, but we feel very confident about exiting this year at our run rate. While we're doing that, we also feel very confident about continuing to make incremental progress on Upstream 60K. You know, when we went public, I believe our target was around 40,000. We blew past that. We blew past 50, and now, you know, so we feel, you know, that we're solidly on track on Upstream 60K. From a upstream and midstream standpoint, we're really executing on all cylinders.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Moving the magnets, and you talked about execution being key here, but it's always difficult for us to kind of gauge your progress. Independence Magnetics is targeting the magnet sales later this year for GM. Can you talk about and speak to the qualification process and how we should think about the cadence of magnet production thereafter? Where do we stand, and where are we going?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah. Well, in auto, there's something called PPAP, which is, you know, just a production part approval process. It's extremely rigorous, and the goal of it is to make sure that you can technically and capably produce what you're supposed to produce as well as do it at the scale that you're supposed to be doing it. That is a multi-month process. Actually, that is really, in the magnetics business, certainly, that is the hardest. You know, doing an automotive PPAP is really the hardest thing. I think we've shown charts like this before, but auto spec rare-earth magnets on the sort of scale things are the sort of most challenging doing Physical AI, so robot or drones or other kinds of magnets from there.

You know, it's quite a bit easier, you know, from a technical standpoint. We obviously have being able to execute in auto out of the gate is critical. You know, as we've said to the street, we expect to be producing revenue from GM magnets, which means we're through that process, and manufacturing at a scale in a way that is approved from that process. We'll be producing revenue from that later this year. We're obviously now making magnets at commercial scale. That's going really well, and on track.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Coming back to sort of, I guess, more base material. We often get questions, I'm sure you do too, around heavies, and you guys have, I think, a pretty interesting story around this. You know, saying that heavies you still need, but maybe at less sort of intensity than before. You know, China really does dominate this space. What is the heavy strategy? What is your ability to, I guess, process third-party feedstock? Are you making third-party purchases today? If so, from what regions? Maybe you can also speak to all the work you've been doing to, I guess, limit the amount of heavies, you know.

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Sure.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

You talked about this in the earnings as well.

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah. There's two pieces to this. First, there's our heavies, you know, what is our supply that we can put into our process? As we said on our call, we're gonna be commissioning our heavy separation facilities at Mountain Pass imminently, you know, this summer. We'll be producing separated heavies this year, later this year. As we've been doing that, we've been stockpiling our own SEG+. Think of the SEG+ as when most of our feed goes into our process, the lights go, you know, one way, I'm really simplifying, but the NdPr that we're after is going one way. We've been taking the SEG+ in recent years and stockpiling that, so we have quite a bit of material to work with.

Obviously we'll be sending our continued material through that. Once we bring our separated heavies online, we size the heavy separation capability to be materially higher than what our ore body would be able to produce with the thought that we'll bring in third-party feedstocks, so we can really ramp that up. We've been sourcing third-party feedstocks. One attribute of our deal with the Department of War is that they're partnering with us to do that, and it's, you know, an attractive partnership that way because there's no financial cost to us to do so. We're sourcing third-party feedstocks. We've had our own stockpile, and then we have our own material feeding through. We feel really confident about our heavy supply.

I would then say on the flip side, what's really interesting is that as we look at the business. If I rewind back to February of 2021, when we went public, we didn't have a single employee in our magnetics business. Our first hire was February of 2021. We started building that team. We now have north of 200 people in our magnetics business, and we've really, it was sort of a private market Manhattan Project. We had to bring together a lot of disciplines, you know, metallurgy, you know, experts that could help us build a Grain Boundary Diffusion process, which is the doping process, it's the end of magnetics. There's a variety of disciplines that came together to kinda create IP. And maybe I should step back.

In really simple terms, when you make a magnet, you know, it's not like these are just standard commodity products where they're all the same. These are highly engineered industrial products. What that means is you get a spec, but how you get to that spec may be different. The ability to make formulations with your alloy and then to get maximum performance with your GBD, your Grain Boundary Diffusion, that's the name of the game. As we started building this business, clearly, the Chinese are on the cutting edge of technology as far as getting all of this done. For years now, we have been dissecting every magnet possible, understanding the IP landscape, where the white space was, how we could work. We've been working on this formulation process.

I don't think people fully appreciate the scale of investment that was happening at MP over the last number of years to build out this capability, the IP that we now have. If we go to about 18 months ago, if you had said to me, you know, "What is the heavy content that you will need to make your GM or automotive spec magnet that you're gonna be making in a couple, you know, couple years ago, couple years," and what that number was. At that time, we would have believed, you know, gee, we're sort of not fully there at the best of the best, but we're out there sort of in the top quartile.

You look at what our estimate was for the need for heavies. Fast-forward to today, we've made such advances that I think we're probably looking at something around the order of 60% less than what we thought we would need two years ago. That really is a function of some great advancements that we've made from an IP standpoint in the lab, extraordinary team that we have doing all that work day-to-day painstakingly. We feel very confident that, one, our heavy needs were lower than what we thought they were a couple years ago. Then add on top of that heavies are mainly for temperature resistance.

Actually, when it comes to physical AI, if when we think about robots, humanoid robots, drones, it's very likely that actually there won't be any heavies usage. We believe we make, you know, humanoid-level spec magnets. Obviously, there's not much of an industry today, but as we look at that use case without them. I think as we fast-forward to when 10X comes online and as we start to see some of this growth actually happen in the next three or five years, I think that it'll be a, frankly, an affirmation of what you've actually seen on the ground from the two big data points we discussed earlier, which is just that NdPr is the name of the game. That is the bottleneck.

You see it from Japanese industry and what they did, you see it from what we announced on our call. Really, for the parties out there kinda talking about heavies being the bottleneck, you know, I think that really reflects sort of maybe not a full appreciation for how magnets are made or how this industry works and for some of the advances that we've made on an IP front. We feel really good about, you know, about the leap ahead that we've made, you know, versus many others, in executing that. Obviously we're gonna continue to invest in getting that business to be better. I do believe that within the next

I used to say a year ago, you know, in the next five years we should be the best magnets company in the world. I think in the next two to three years, MP will leap ahead of anybody in the Chinese industry as well from a capability standpoint, from an IP standpoint, in rare-earth magnets.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. I have a question about 10X, but actually one leg of the stool you mentioned earlier but didn't mention just now was recycling. How does that augment both maybe an NdPr-

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Great question.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Maybe like the heavy strategy as well? Does that largely help you meet your needs as well?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yes. I think maybe another thing that's for those who are newer to the space that might not be fully appreciated is the importance of recycling and again, our vertical integration strategy. If you make a magnet, let's say it's a smartphone magnet, you know, these are tiny. You pick up your phone, these are tiny, thin, oddly shaped things. Typically, about 50% of the material comes off when you're finishing that magnet or earlier in the process, comes off in the form of dust or swarf. You lose it in the manufacturing process. And, you know, maybe for an EV magnet it's closer to 20%, but somewhere between 20%-50% of your raw material that's going through your process, you know, you lose. Well, the Chinese historically are selling magnets for the cost of raw materials or less.

If you're a Western magnetics producer and you're losing 20%-50% of your material and you have no way to monetize that, you know, that's a disaster. That's just the math doesn't work. We were very focused. By the way, you need to have the ability to refine and separate to really be in that business at scale.

What we have been focused on, and obviously for the last five years prior to the announcement, what we were focused on with Apple, was making sure that we could build a recycling business at scale where we could take end-of-life magnets, calcined magnets, as well as the swarf from our manufacturing process, send that all back to Mountain Pass, and so that we could take advantage of that raw material to really have sort of a full closed loop process. That's sort of the genesis of the Apple deal, and obviously we're very, you know, grateful to them. There's probably, you know, one of the largest rare-earth magnet consumers in the world. They're certainly one of the smartest and thoughtful supply chain companies in the world.

To have them as a foundational customer and business partner of our recycling business at Mountain Pass is a really important thing. I think to be economic in the magnetics business, you really need to have that piece of it. Otherwise, let's say you're a standalone magnet factory in the U.S., you're either losing 20%-50% of your cost structure versus, you know, us or someone else or the Chinese, or you're getting a small piece of that via some other recycling relationship that, you know, currently doesn't exist. It's really hard to be economic. Really that vertical piece of just having that full loop positions us really well.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks for that. Moving on to 10X. You recently selected a site and made that announcement here recently. This is slated to ramp later this decade. How should we think about your ability to accelerate the growth timeline? What has been the level of interest from customer offtakes, realizing that you have the backstop, but and when might we expect to see further announcements from a commercial side?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah. Well, as I mentioned earlier, we are seeing fever pitch, and I go back to this concept of dual-use technologies where people are just not getting access. I think that's hitting hard across the defense supply chain and, you know, some of the other supply chains, where people are realizing that even in this détente period, magnets are, you know, rare earth magnets are really hard to come by. By the way, if you can get them, to get your license to get them, you have to get a license, which means you have to share details about your product, your spec, sometimes pictures. Essentially, to get a rare earth magnet today, you have to hand over your IP to some entity of the, you know, some downstream entity, so to speak, of the Chinese government.

I think obviously there's, you know, a lot of parties who don't like that. What that means is, you know, we're very confident that we'll, you know. If we wanted to fill 10X today, I think we could certainly fill 10X today. The structure of our deal makes it such that we can be thoughtful about how and when we fill 10X. We obviously wanna maximize value for shareholders and make sure, frankly, that we're an important supply chain partner to national security needs. The way our deal works is that the moment we bring that capacity online, we have minimum profitability with an inflation kicker that kicks in.

It's a very financially attractive structure that allows us to be thoughtful about when and how we bring customers onto that. I think, you know, if you were building sort of an on the spec enormous facility, you'd sort of feel like you had to rush to bring customers online. It's sort of the opposite with us, which is, you know, we know the economics, we can be thoughtful about how we build out that customer base. We're obviously having those conversations now. You know, I think I expect to have material upside to that business versus sort of what our stated minimums were. The good news is, you know, all of you get to participate even if you're not MP shareholders.

You know, the DOD is an economic participant in that. Via 10X as well as obviously via shareholdering. It's really a win-win-win for us to kind of execute on that for everyone.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

You spoke to it earlier, but in terms of, there's been a lot of announcements on western supply, especially the U.S. domestic projects. You talked about maybe how you should have some competitive advantages, especially as it relates to recycling, swarf, so forth. How should investors view the competitive landscape? You know, will there be enough demand to absorb the supply? How should we think about that?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Well, I think certainly if you believe that in the next decade we will see, you know, growth in physical AI use cases, I think we have a real shortage. You know, what we're seeing, there's going to be a run on an NdPr because everything that's happening structurally in the economy today, you know, should mean more if there's motion, there's actuation, that means you need rare earth magnets. I'm certainly very bullish about the demand backdrop.

What I would say is what we see, you know, there are a lot of. Obviously, the excitement around both the trade war issues as well as now the growth cases that we're seeing in the economy, admittedly, you know, a few years out, you're seeing a lot of excitement and capital formation, particularly on the back of our deal, for, you know, other parties trying to be in the space. What I would say is that, you know, again, I'm biased, but I think this vertical integration strategy that really stems off of an extraordinarily economic mine and refinery, that really matters. If you don't have those pieces upstream, you really can't have the rest.

The idea that you could sort of start with magnets, I think there's, you know, certainly multiples of what we're doing of magnet capacity that's expected to come online in the West. I don't think they'll have feedstock. I think that that'll sadly be, you know, something, you know. We'll sort of pick the best of those assets at $0.05 or less on the dollar and likely have that opportunity. If you don't have an economic upstream, we don't see. Unfortunately, we don't see any viable mines in North America today. I do think that we'll see some, you know, some stuff out of Southeast Asia, some stuff in South America. These things, again, I would say are incredibly hard to bring online.

You know, one data point that I think, you know, I mentioned a couple calls ago, and so if you want more detail on this, take a look. But as we look around and see dozens of companies and people trying to promote a me-too strategy with respect to what we're doing, if you look at the rare earth industry today, there's really only four mines in the world that currently represent somewhere between 80%-90% of supply. So there's two sites in China. There's Northern China, Baotou, and then there's Mount Niuping, and then there's Mount Weld, which is Lynas, and then us. As we look around at all of these projects, you know, to really and then we've seen a number of projects that are really struggling to get online.

I don't think we're gonna see a state of the world five, 10 years from now where you're gonna see dozens of sites online. I think you're gonna see some of these structural forces result in sort of us having the ability to really grow our business. That'll happen in the various, you know, verticals of mining and refining when you talk about our, you know, the refinery that we're gonna build in the Middle East. I think you're gonna really start to see the industry form around champions. I think obviously that, you know, we're in a really good position for that.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

This year, you know, fairly elevated CapEx, but as we think about cash flow improvements maybe in the coming years, how do you think about capital allocation? You kind of briefly mentioned potential for M&A. What about other things? Do you think about buybacks, dividends, or further reinvestment?

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah, well, as you all know, I'm certainly an opportunistic investor. As a company right now, it's very clear that over the next, you know, 12-18 months, we gotta bring 10X online. We have to execute. We have Independence. We have to continue to execute all the projects that we have in front of us. You know, we have an enormous cash balance, so, you know, we feel very comfortable at our balance sheet. We're gonna generate a lot of cash, and so we'll certainly think about attractive capital allocation things to do, you know, soon thereafter. I think first and foremost, over the next year and change, we've got to execute to make sure that we get those things online right.

There's no question that you know I think we're gonna quickly transition to generating a lot of cash. You know, we'll take advantage of that accordingly. You know, of course, I'm always free to change my mind.

Bill Peterson
U.S. Metals and Mining Analyst, JPMorgan

Well, James, thanks for sharing the insights. We unfortunately have run out of time. Look forward to following the progress and, you know, best of luck here ahead with, all the projects you have going on.

James Litinsky
CEO, MP Materials

Yeah. Thank you.

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