NiSource Inc. (NI)
NYSE: NI · Real-Time Price · USD
48.28
+0.40 (0.84%)
At close: Apr 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
48.41
+0.13 (0.27%)
After-hours: Apr 30, 2026, 5:48 PM EDT
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 23, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q4 2021 NiSource earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question at that time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press star one. Thank you. It's now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Mr. Chris Turnure, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chris Turnure
Director of Investor Relations, NiSource

Good morning, and welcome to the NiSource fourth quarter 2021 investor call. Joining me today are Lloyd Yates, our Chief Executive Officer, Donald Brown, our Chief Financial Officer, Shawn Anderson, our Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, Pablo Vegas, our Chief Operating Officer, and Randy Hulen, our VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. The purpose of this presentation is to review NiSource's financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2021, as well as provide an update on our operations and growth drivers. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to your questions. Slides for today's call are available on nisource.com. Before turning the call over to Lloyd, Donald, and Shawn, a quick reminder. Some of the statements made during this presentation will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements.

Information concerning such risks and uncertainties is included in the MD&A section and risk factors sections of our periodic SEC filings. Additionally, some of the statements made on this call relate to non-GAAP measures. For additional information on the most directly comparable GAAP measure and a reconciliation of these measures, please refer to the supplemental slides and segment information, including our full financial schedules, also available at nisource.com. With all of that out of the way, I'd like to turn the call over to Lloyd.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we get started, I'd like to take a few moments to thank Joe Hamrock, my predecessor as President and CEO, for his outstanding service to NiSource. Joe retired last week as part of a long-planned transition. I'm grateful for Joe's leadership and his decade of service to this company. He left NiSource in a strong position, poised for years of growth and success. We send him our best wishes as he begins the next chapter of his life. I expect to build on the significant progress NiSource has made in the past year, including our strategic initiatives, NiSource Next, Safety Management System, and Your Energy, Your Future, our transition to the future of energy. I want to take a step back and remind everyone of our mission.

That is of NiSource being a great place to work, where we are all relentlessly focused on safety, operational excellence, the customer's experience, and delivering on our commitments to shareholders as we did in 2021. Our strategic initiatives are what will enable us to achieve our mission of being relentless champions of safety, comfort, and service for our customers, and they will help set us up for long-term success. In short, these initiatives are all about people. Our plans for investment-driven, long-term, and sustainable growth remain on track. We continue to expect these plans to drive industry-leading compound growth of 7%-9% in diluted net operating earnings per share through 2024. My experience in the past two years on the board of directors has given me unique insights for executing and extending NiSource's growth plan.

I plan to conduct a review of the business with the goal of ensuring that we are best positioned to drive long-term value for all stakeholders. I look forward to further discussing our strategic initiatives with our employees and with shareholders in the coming months. Now, let's start our discussion. Hopefully, you've all had a chance to read our fourth quarter earnings release, which we issued earlier today. As we look at NiSource's results in 2021, we see strong financial and operational performance across key areas of the business. Advancing execution on our portfolio of renewable generation investments is matched by significant progress on regulatory initiatives across all our states. We are enhancing safety, providing customers with new ways to do business with us, and moving forward on our plan to reduce scope one greenhouse gas emissions 90% by 2030 versus 2005 levels.

Let's now turn to slide three and take a closer look at our key takeaways. I mentioned earlier our CEO succession. In addition to Joe's retirement, Sondra Barbour and Cassandra Lee joined the NiSource board of directors. The additions of Sandra and Cassandra further strengthen the leadership, experience, diversity, and talent on the NiSource board. Shifting to full year 2021 results, we exceeded both our original and updated guidance ranges. We reported earnings of $1.37 non-GAAP diluted net operating earnings per share, or NOEPS. We are reaffirming our 2022 guidance of $1.42-$1.48 diluted NOEPS non-GAAP. We are reaffirming our forecast for 7%-9% compound annual growth rate from 2021 through 2024, including near-term annual growth of 5%-7% through 2023.

In 2022, we expect $2.4 billion-$2.7 billion in capital expenditures as we continue to execute our core infrastructure programs and our renewable generation plans. The preferred plan from NIPSCO's 2021 Integrated Resource Plan or IRP advances our intention to retire all coal-fired generation between 2026 and 2028. Opportunities for additional generation investments will be better understood as we continue to analyze the results of the proposals received in the IRP process. We received final orders in gas rate cases in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Maryland, which provide balanced outcomes for all stakeholders. Ohio's case continues to advance towards a third-quarter implementation, and NIPSCO's gas case is in constructive settlement discussions. Another key regulatory outcome is NIPSCO's Electric TDSIC order, representing $1.6 billion of investments in safety, reliability, and improved customer service.

Before we get into our specific NiSource utility highlights, I'd like to take a moment to call out our safety progress in 2021. NiSource has reached important safety milestones. They include substantially completing the installation of automated shutoff valves on our low-pressure gas systems. We also expanded deployment of Picarro advanced leak detection technology. We successfully completed stage 1 of a certification of our Safety Management System by Lloyd's Register. We brought in additional resources to strengthen our quality management system capabilities across all of our companies. I'm excited to say we expect to issue our very first annual safety report at about the same time as our annual report. I would encourage you to read more about our progress. Now, let's take a look at some NiSource gas distribution highlights for the fourth quarter, starting on slide nine.

The Columbia Gas of Ohio rate case continues to progress on schedule. The filing requests an annual revenue increase of $221 million net of the trackers being rolled into base rates, which support continued investments in safety and reliability. We received an order approving a settlement in the Columbia Gas of Kentucky rate case. The settlement supports continued investments in safety and infrastructure replacement and includes an overall increase in revenues of approximately $18 million. In Maryland, we received a final order from the Public Service Commission. The order includes a revenue increase of approximately $2.4 million. The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approved our rate case settlement as filed. It provides a revenue increase of $58.5 million, and new rates went into effect in late December. The settlement continues our program of infrastructure modernization, supporting safety and reliability.

We are engaged in constructive settlement discussions in NIPSCO's gas rate case. The case is focused on infrastructure modernization and providing safe, reliable service while remaining in compliance with state and federal safety requirements. If approved, new rates would take effect between September of this year and March of 2023. Let's turn now to our electric operations on slide 10. As noted earlier, NIPSCO's electric TDSIC plan received final approval in December from the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission or IURC. This is a five-year, $1.6 billion program, which includes newly identified projects aimed at enhancing service and reliability for customers, as well as some previously identified projects. The other items on this slide relate to our renewable generation strategy. I'll turn it over to Shawn Anderson to give more detail.

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Thank you, Lloyd. The preferred plan from NIPSCO's 2021 IRP confirmed the retirement of the last coal-fired generation unit at Michigan City, as well as two vintage gas peaking units at the Schahfer Generating Station site and advanced the window for these retirements to occur between 2026 and 2028. To support reliable generation when these units retire, enhancements to our portfolio will require replacement capacity from technology including solar, standalone battery storage, and natural gas peaking resources. We estimate that the new investments of up to $750 million will be required to support the retirement of our last coal-fired units. As we evaluate the actual projects required to support these portfolio additions, we are evaluating all forms of technology bid through the RFP process launched in May.

We continue to analyze these proposals and complete due diligence on these projects available which align with the preferred plan identified back in November. We expect to be able to share the results of our analysis during the first half of 2022. Meanwhile, we are making steady progress on the execution and construction of renewable generation projects resulting from NIPSCO's 2018 IRP. We continue to expect to invest $2 billion in renewable generation by the end of 2023 to replace the retiring capacity at Schahfer. Our most recent project to come online and begin operations is Indiana Crossroads I, a 302-MW wind facility which entered service in December. This project joins the Rosewater and Jordan Creek Wind Farms already operational and contributing to NIPSCO's power generation fleet across 2021.

Meanwhile, we expect four additional projects to be in service by the end of this year. They are Dunns Bridge Solar I, Indiana Crossroads Solar, Brickyard Solar, and Greensboro Solar. These projects will represent our first solar facilities, while the Greensboro project is our first project, which also includes storage. We expect the final seven renewable generation projects needed to replace the retiring capacity of Schahfer to come online in 2023. Our project and commercial teams continue to work tirelessly alongside our project partners to advance these projects as initially intended. As this work continues, we remain in close contact with some of the strongest developers in the renewable energy space regarding the progress of these projects and are actively monitoring any potential delays associated with the construction process, including the dynamic nature of the global supply chain.

NiSource also continues to engage with producers and developers focused on renewable natural gas, hydrogen, and emerging storage technologies. We continue to support the advancement of these technologies and fuels to support accelerated and deeper decarbonization solutions, leveraging existing assets such as the natural gas system. We seek a risk-informed understanding of the options and technologies which may emerge as pathways toward further decarbonization and are encouraged on how our communities and service territory could benefit from the development of these technologies. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Donald, who will discuss our 2021 financial performance in more detail.

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Thanks, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. Before we dive in, I want to update everyone about our Investor Day. It will take place in May, and we'll get a specific date and location details to you as soon as they are finalized. We plan to provide an extension to our capital investment and growth plan, a detailed update on our generation transition and ESG profile, as well as give you an opportunity to hear from the leaders of our businesses. I hope you will be able to attend, and I look forward to speaking with you. As Lloyd mentioned a few minutes ago, our 2021 earnings exceeded the top end of our guidance range of $1.32-$1.36.

We've also reaffirmed 2022 guidance of $1.42-$1.48 and our long-term diluted NOEPS growth rates. Looking at our full-year 2021 results on slide four, we had non-GAAP net operating earnings of about $571 million or $1.37 per diluted share, compared to non-GAAP net operating earnings of about $507 million or $1.32 per diluted share in 2020. The 2021 results reflect our ongoing execution of infrastructure investments and efficiencies resulting from our NiSource Next initiatives, offset somewhat by the sale of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, which closed in October 2020.

Taking a closer look at our segment non-GAAP results on slide five, Gas Distribution operating earnings were about $674 million for 2021, representing an increase of approximately $6 million versus last year. Operating revenues, net of the cost of energy and tracked expenses, were lower by approximately $94 million due to the sale of CMA. Other operating expenses were lower by approximately $100 million due to the sale of CMA and our NiSource Next initiatives. In our Electric segment, non-GAAP operating earnings for 2021 were about $387 million, which was about $25 million higher than in 2020. Operating revenues, net of the cost of energy and tracked expenses, increased by approximately $24 million due primarily to infrastructure investment programs and increased customer demand.

The other operating expenses were essentially flat to 2020 levels. Now, turning to slide six, I'd like to briefly touch on our debt and credit profile. Our debt level as of December 31 was about $9.8 billion, of which about $9.2 billion was long-term debt. The weighted average maturity on our long-term debt was approximately 14 years, and the weighted average interest rate was approximately 3.7%. At the end of the fourth quarter, we maintained net available liquidity of about $1.6 billion, consisting of cash and available capacity under our credit facility and our accounts receivable securitization programs. Last Friday, we successfully extended our revolving credit facility for another five-year term. The new facility capacity remains at $1.85 billion with essentially the same borrowing terms.

We also continue our commitment to retaining our investment-grade credit ratings, and all three major rating agencies reaffirmed their ratings with stable outlooks in 2021. Taken together, this represents a solid financial foundation that will continue to support our long-term safety and infrastructure investments. As you can see on slide seven, we are reiterating our 2022 capital forecast of $2.4 billion-$2.7 billion. Taking a quick look at slide eight, which highlights our financing plan, there are no changes to our plan since April's equity unit issuance. I would highlight that this balanced financing plan continues to be consistent with all of our earnings growth and credit commitments. Thank you all for participating today and for your ongoing interest in and support of NiSource. We're now ready to take your questions.

Operator

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Senior Research Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning, team, and congratulations, Lloyd, again, on the latest opportunity here for you. Can you perhaps give us some initial flavor by chance on what the strategy update might entail here? I know you made some comments already in the prepared remarks, but I know cost containment and reduction admittedly has been top of mind for you, Lloyd. Wondering if you have any further thoughts you'd like to share, at least at this point, in terms of the process therein. I'm also cognizant that you stated in the prepared remarks that you still have this May timeframe for an Analyst Day, but how are you thinking about this opportunity today, and especially considering the inflationary backdrop that you know we've been talking with a lot of companies about?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Thanks for your question, Julien. Let me start by saying when you look at the current plan, I have a lot of confidence in the current plan. You know, the current plan talks about 7%-9% compound annual growth rate, and I think that's really good. Our strategic review is really gonna take a hard look at how do we extend that plan past 2024. What does that mean? That means we're gonna look at everything. We're gonna look hard at the portfolio, the current portfolio we have, and we're gonna look at the performance of that portfolio. Is that portfolio executing in a way that's maximizing shareholder value? We're gonna look at the content of that portfolio. Should we keep all of the LDCs or all the businesses we have? Should we buy some?

Should we sell other businesses? Thus, I think that's part of the view. We're gonna look hard at our cost structure and efficiency, productivity, and some of our operational metrics. We're just getting started on that. I think that we have a team. The board will be involved and that's moving forward. A comprehensive look at the business and just to add a little bit to that, I think as a new CEO and on an ongoing basis, my plan is to constantly evaluate the NiSource portfolio to make sure we're maximizing shareholder value.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Senior Research Analyst, Bank of America

Excellent. Thank you. Just if you can clarify that last comment just in brief, what are the criteria here? How are you thinking about the merits or what kind of thresholds do we need to see in order to especially sell or divest other assets here and/or frankly buy since you introduced that as well here, if you don't mind?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

I don't have the criteria established yet, a little bit too early for that. You know, we are looking at the data points out there. We've seen the Dominion transaction. We've seen some of the other transactions. There'll be data point that feed into our process, but I can't sit here and tell you I have the criteria established right now. I mean, this is, what, my sixth day on the job, so I don't have all those things done yet. We're working really hard on it.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Senior Research Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah. Sorry, I don't mean to press you too much there. Just last little detail, if I can, just, on the solar projects here, I know that they're moving around a little bit because of the ongoing WRO policy backdrop. But no shift really in terms of meaningful earnings impact that you know of quite yet or more importantly probably rate case timing, right?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Not right now, but I'm gonna turn that over to Shawn Anderson, maybe a little more detail on that.

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Yes. Thanks. Thanks, Lloyd. Thanks for the question, Julien. You said it. It's premature to speculate how any potential delay might change the regulatory strategy here. I'd note just as I did in my prepared remarks that we have not seen a delay yet that it's extended beyond the timeline we initially planned for. So there's a lot that's gonna play out here. There's a couple other considerations just to note. Indiana, as you probably already know, allows for a forward test year. We've utilized that historically for both our electric and gas cases in the past, so it has some precedent there. It also has some precedent for rate step implementations. I think it's really important to remember that all of these projects have already received an approved CPCN.

While the timing might have some potential to flex, we believe the need for these rate-based additions is just really clear in terms of how they'll add value for our community. As you'd expect, we'll continue to be active, and we'll evaluate and monitor this and, much more to come here at, in May or at the midpoint of 2022.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Senior Research Analyst, Bank of America

Excellent. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on. Cheers.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director and Sector Head of Power, Utilities Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for taking my question. Just, Lloyd, congratulations on your appointment.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Thank you.

Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director and Sector Head of Power, Utilities Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Yeah. Yep, sure. Just, can you clarify for us on the Analyst Day in May, is that gonna be extended through 2028, or do you have sort of a terminal year in mind that we're gonna see your plans through?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Yeah, let me set expectations for Analyst Day. I can't promise you on Analyst Day that our strategic review will be complete. I think that we'll have more clarity on where we are and what the plan looks like, but, you know, I wanna dive in and understand the organization and the business a little better. You know, we're talking about Analyst Day around the May timetable, and I just don't believe we'll have the whole strategic review done by then. I just think that's really fast. But I do think we'll have an idea of what the strategic review looks like and the timetable for when we'll complete the strategic review by Analyst Day.

Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director and Sector Head of Power, Utilities Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Got it. That's very helpful. It won't be complete, but you'll give us sort of the bookends of what the process might look like and, you know, kind of, when that process might come to a conclusion.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

That's correct.

Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director and Sector Head of Power, Utilities Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Just in terms of like, you know, the extension of the CapEx plans and EPS growth, what year should we be expecting to, you know, to see this plan get extended to?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Let me turn that over to Donald with a little more detail on Analyst Day.

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Yeah. Thanks for the question. We are planning to extend the financial plan. If you think about that next IRP, the 2021 IRP we just filed last quarter, with the future retirement of Michigan City, we do wanna take the plan out to at least the period of retiring that plant. It would certainly be to 2027 or 2028, depending on what the outcome is there. Certainly, we would provide an update on long-term strategy in the SG profile as Lloyd has provided.

Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director and Sector Head of Power, Utilities Equity Research, Evercore ISI

All right. Thanks so much for that color, guys. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Yep.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Jamieson Ward
Associate Analyst, Guggenheim Partners

Hi, guys. It's Jamieson Ward on for Shar. We were wondering if, just to piggyback on the last couple questions about the Analyst Day and then one on the Indiana RFP. So we've got the 2028 year there. When you think about the way that you currently guide and provide disclosures, we're curious if we might expect to see some changes there or if we should be expecting to see the same type of disclosures, but simply moved forward out to future years. Would you use this as an opportunity to change the way you guide?

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

It's something that we're exploring. We certainly wanna look at the plan and, you know, how the plan comes out. You know, we wanna be able to communicate that in the most effective way for our shareholders. If you still step back and you think about what drives our annual earnings, it's our annual CapEx programs and it's those trackers that provides the predictability of our earnings growth and our cash flow growth. That's always going to be the strong foundation of our long-term plan. Certainly wanna make sure that as we look at the next phase of our plan, we're communicating that in a way that provides the most impact for shareholders to understand the long-term value of NiSource.

Jamieson Ward
Associate Analyst, Guggenheim Partners

Got it. Thank you. On the Indiana IRP and the current RFP analysis, do you expect that you would have and include any amount of the $750 million of potential incremental CapEx there by the Analyst Day, or would that be something that you'd be updating post Analyst Day?

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Yeah, that is our intention that next tranche of potential investment would be included in that financial plan at that time. If you think about our last Analyst Day, we provided a range of the potential investment, and I'd expect we'd be in that same place in May.

Jamieson Ward
Associate Analyst, Guggenheim Partners

Got it. Thank you very much. I'll jump back in the queue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Your line is open.

Travis Miller
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Good morning, everyone. Thank you. I was wondering on the Indiana Electric rate case, is there anything specific that has to happen, either in your eyes or just administratively before you could file that later this year?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Pablo, you wanna handle that one?

Pablo Vegas
EVP and COO, NiSource

Yeah, thanks for the question. No, I mean, I think we're set up in terms of the timing. What we're looking at right now is making sure that all the planned investments around the renewables that are gonna be getting developed over the course of this year and next year, and the timing issues we've talked about related to that are all gonna line up with the expected in-service dates that we need in order to support that rate case. All of the core approvals, the Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity, the CPCNs, those have all been approved in advance. The prudence of these investments that we're gonna do are essentially have been supported.

Now it's just making sure that the timing of the projects aligns with the timing of the rate case and the windows for that rate case, and that'll be the driver. Everything is lined up for that for the second half of this year.

Travis Miller
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay. Just real quick on that. It would be more the capital side of it than, say, anything that happened with operating expenses. Is that the idea that that would be the biggest factor in terms of rate increase or whatever, right? Okay.

Pablo Vegas
EVP and COO, NiSource

Yeah, that's right. It'd be the CapEx associated with the renewable projects and when that would go in service and be considered used and useful for the purpose of the rate case.

Travis Miller
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Perfect. Okay. Great. Lloyd, you obviously mentioned the portfolio review. If you were to make any kind of changes, particularly sell, what would be the use of capital for that? Thinking particularly potential equity to fund either the electric side or some other initiative. Can you take me through your thought process in terms of how you'd use any kind of capital, incremental capital?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

I think there are a couple ways to think about that. One is, you know, if you were to sell off some pieces of the portfolio, that would eliminate the need for equity in the future, so that's a possibility. There's also a possibility that if you're selling pieces of portfolio off, you could find some other attractive investments to make, and whether it's in capital programs for, you know, Your Energy, Your Future on the ESG side, or whether there are some attractive properties or that we may want to purchase. I think I don't want to speculate on that, but I think what we're trying to do is make the best use if we sell something, the best use or efficient use of that capital to add shareholder value.

Travis Miller
Senior Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay. Great. Thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question is from Richard Sunderland with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Richard Sunderland
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Good morning. Thanks for the time today. Maybe just starting with Ohio, any sense on the near-term pace of the proceeding? Just really curious if you're seeing anything on the ground here.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

You know, I don't know if that Pablo handles the detail. You know, I think Ohio's moving along, you know, at a what I call a reasonable pace. We don't have any concerns with Ohio, but it's just taking time and, you know, Pablo, you want to give a little more detail?

Pablo Vegas
EVP and COO, NiSource

Yeah, happy to. Thanks, Richard. Yeah. You know, there's a lot on the docket at the PUCO right now. There's a DP&L case that is going to hearing. You've got a Duke electric case that is out there, and it's still in the discovery phase. It's been a while, you know, since Columbia Gas of Ohio has filed a rate case. Now, I'll say that, you know, about half or a little more than half of our total costs have already flowed through extensive reviews in our tracker programs that we have over the last decade or so. We're not expecting any issues or problems. The case is going fine. The next step is gonna be to get the staff report.

We expect to see that hopefully sometime in the next several weeks to a couple of months. We're still projecting an overall rate case timing of concluding sometime in the middle of the year. It's moving forward, as Lloyd said, as we would expect, and no concerns on our part there.

Richard Sunderland
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you for the color there. Maybe just one other one. What are the regulatory requirements with delivering the 2018 IRP projects? We're curious how you see kind of supply chain risks within that context.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Shawn?

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Hey, I'm sorry. Could you just repeat that? The phone cut out right when you asked that question.

Richard Sunderland
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Apologies. Just, you know, the regulatory requirements with delivering the 2018 IRP projects and how you see supply chain risks specifically in that context?

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

The 2018 projects have all been approved from a CPCN standpoint. That's the first step in the process. Well, there's a number of steps to the process. That's the first real regulatory step that you've got to cross through that demonstrates the prudence. In terms of the projects themselves, then they need to be executed. It's a process, of course, through the supply chain process to get the materials on site and then to construct the facilities. That takes six to 12 months, depending upon the size of the facility and where it's being constructed. That's where the remaining projects outside the three that are operational are in the construction phase or to be constructed phase. The project team is currently working with the developers to then stand those projects up.

Right now, the schedule for the projects remains with four more projects to be COD or operational this year, and then the remainder of the projects in 2023. That would all take you through construction. As we've already sort of highlighted here on a rate case standpoint, you'll file a rate case and do a forward-look test year that moves through that in-service date to then pick up those investments as part of your regulatory requirement and your CapEx additions.

Richard Sunderland
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Got it. Just to be clear, it's, you know, really around timing of the rate cases we discussed earlier and in terms of required delivery dates or other obligations coming out of the CPCN process, not so much to watch here. Is that fair?

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Yeah. That's exactly right. We'll step through each project individually. There's multiple steps through that in terms of getting those constructed, bringing materials on site, et cetera. We'll step through each of those projects and then sweep all those investments into the rate case and proceed accordingly.

Richard Sunderland
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Great. That was very helpful. Thank you for the time today.

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Absolutely.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.

Ryan Levine
Equity Analyst, Citi

Good morning. Question for Lloyd. What are your priorities in the first 100 days as CEO, and more specifically, what work processes, streams are underway to evaluate the business operations as part of this broader business review?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

I mean, a couple of things that we're going to continue on. One is NiSource Next. You know, we've taken some costs out of the business over the last couple of years with operational efficiency. We want to kind of ramp up the next phase of NiSource Next. I think as part of the strategic review process, we have an initiative called Your Energy, Your Future. You know, when you look at that's the retirement of the coal plants by 2028. What's the next phase of that, especially focused on the gas distribution system? Yeah, I think decarbonizing the gas distribution system is good for the customers, and I think it will present an opportunity for the company to make investments. We're looking hard at that. As I mentioned earlier, continue to look hard at the portfolio. Those are probably the three focus areas.

Ryan Levine
Equity Analyst, Citi

Thanks. As you do this business review, should we look for some higher near-term costs to help evaluate these different options? Is the company doing this business review completely internally or is there more reliance on third-party consultants?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Yeah. I think the cost efficiencies that we know about today are in the current guidance. When you look at our targets for next year and the following year, you know, the 7%-9%, we have cost efficiencies built into those. We're gonna look harder to try to drive a little more, but right now, I mean, those are the guidance numbers we have, and I have a lot of confidence in us hitting those numbers.

Ryan Levine
Equity Analyst, Citi

Okay. Last question from me is more specific on the quarter. What was the driver of some of the O&M cost declines in the electric business, and what drove some of the higher costs around O&M in the gas business?

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Yeah. When you look at the electric business, part of the cost decrease is related to the shutdown of our coal plants, two of our Schahfer units that retired in 2021. In the gas business, it's continued spend and investment in our safety and SMS programs. We'll continue to see that over the next couple of years. The objective of NiSource Next is to help mitigate the inflation that we see every year so that we can afford to continue to invest in safety and reliability.

Ryan Levine
Equity Analyst, Citi

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Insoo Kim
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, thank you. My question, and it was more on the O&M side, but to piggyback off your guys' comments on the higher gas O&M, you know, related to SMS, my question was gonna be kind of, you know, have you hit a pretty good runway in terms of the spending on the SMS side for, you know, safety and reliability purposes? You know, are we seeing, you know, that continue to trend up over the years? You know, Lloyd, you've, you know, talked about cost management as one of, you know, your key priorities as well. Other than this type of spend which is definitely very important, I think, for the company, what are some other general areas of cost efficiencies that we should be looking out for?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Let me start with SMS because I do want, though I didn't mention it, sure, we are committed to continuing with SMS. I think in this business, when I think about SMS, I think about operational excellence. I think that's table stakes in this business. We have to operate well, and we have to continue to invest in those programs. You know, on the other hand, we're going to control the cost in those programs. We want to make sure that we invest effectively. As a result of those programs, I think over time, you should get cost efficiencies out of them. Cost ramps up a little bit, but as the people who operate get used to the new ways of doing business, you should gain efficiencies out of that.

Again, other issues, not issues, but in our guidance, we'll continue to look at corporate services. Just like most companies, we're looking at productivity and any other cost that we spend in the business, making sure that those costs are aligned with other high-performing organizations.

Insoo Kim
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Understood. My only other question is, I think this is the second quarter that you've, you know, reiterated that 7%-9%, but off, you know, typically a higher base and, you know, this time off of the actual, 2021 results. As we go forward, I guess, in future years, is that something that we should think about as a something that you will do going, you know, forward, kind of guiding off of, you know, achievements on an annual basis, on an actual basis?

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

Yeah. I'd say it's too early for me to provide guidance on next year's results. Give us some time. Again, I'll go back to, you know, the core drivers of our earnings. It's the annual CapEx programs, and that's really what provides that clarity and consistency of earnings, and allows us to guide off of last year's earnings and update off of that. I won't guide for 2023 yet, but certainly expect that we'll, you know, we've got confidence that we'll be in that 7%-9% range off of 2021.

Insoo Kim
Senior Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thank you so much.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Nick Campanella
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just in terms of the strategic review comments and thinking about portfolio rotation, you know, I recall when you sold the Massachusetts assets, you did have some dis-synergies due to, you know, cost allocation model from the parent down to the opcos. I'm just curious if that hurdle exists kind of across the entire portfolio, and how we should kind of be thinking about that, if you are considering potentially, you know, rotating capital here? Thanks.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

I think that hurdle is going to exist across the portfolio. When you rotate something out, you got to deal with the dissynergies. I think that. You know, we're here and we need to manage those. If we decide to rotate something off the portfolio, we have to consider that in the math, but we also have to consider the fact that dis-synergies can be managed, and that'll be part of our strategic review process as we think about that. We believe they can be managed.

Nick Campanella
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thanks a lot for that. Just one for Donald on the 7%-9% CAGR and just, like, the relevant puts and takes. You know, you guys issued the equity units last spring, and, you know, share count in the outer years can kind of move around depending on where those are remarketed. Does your updated 7%-9% CAGR kind of take into account the increase in share price that we've seen since then?

Donald Brown
EVP and CFO, NiSource

It does. We're always paying attention to, you know, and updating our model for share price and share count that is in our guidance right now. But again, we wanna make sure that we've got some cushion as share price moves around, that you know, we're not moving outside of our guidance. We're confident where we are, and certainly recognize the appreciation in the stock price over the last year and a half.

Nick Campanella
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Steve Fleishman
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

Yeah. Hey, good morning. So, Lloyd, just high level curious on the, you know, you've been around both now, you know, NiSource on the board and at electric utilities over time, and curious if you have a view on kind of the mix between electric and gas, and is that an important aspect as part of your strategic review?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

You know, I think it is, Steve. I think as we look at the strategic review, some of the companies that are receiving higher multiples have a higher mix of electric than gas. I think we have to consider that as part of our strategic evaluation. Does that make sense? Are there opportunities to shift to more electric versus gas? I don't think we need to be out of gas. I think in the states that we operate in, you know, gas is very valuable. It may not be popular, but it's valuable. I think as we look at this portfolio, we have to consider all those options, but also consider where we operate.

Steve Fleishman
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

Great. That's helpful. I just wanted to follow up on the renewables projects 'cause I just wanted to clarify maybe, I guess, with Shawn just are these projects all on schedule, as of now? Or, you know, and just, you know, it sounded like they are on schedule, but then you're having to monitor everything. I guess I just wanna clarify just, you know, where things stand. My recollection is you had pretty strong contract terms in the event that anything was delayed. Could you remind us how you're protected there, if at all?

Shawn Anderson
Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, NiSource

Yep. Thanks, Steve. Appreciate the question. All projects are currently scheduled to be in service by the end of 2023. That's the critical window. We have the benefit of the remainder of the calendar for 2022 and 2023 for each project, which is at a, you know, a different stage in its life cycle, to work through what's necessary to get it into service by the end of 2023. That does require some active monitoring in terms of the partnership agreement, the developers themselves. They're all sophisticated top-tier developers. This is their critical core competency when you think of names like NextEra, EDPR, Invenergy. There's diversity, and that was intentional across the developers themselves, so as not to have concentration risk around one developer.

We're working very closely with those developers as they continue to move through the process. Everything remains with a projected 2023 COD, and that's the critical date for us to watch. Then in terms of contractual protections, you know, each agreement's a little bit unique, but to your point, there are provisions to provide NIPSCO capacity as it relates to the agreements. There's different levels of indemnity protection and flexibility in terms of even component suppliers when you start to get into the weeds of the agreements. Each one's unique, but the important point for customers is that the energy is contracted at that price. That protects our customers. That's an important part of this, and that's what we're seeking for with all 14 of these projects.

Steve Fleishman
Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of James Thalacker with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

James Thalacker
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Oh, thanks, guys. Thanks for the time. Lloyd, just, I guess circling back to your comments on the strategic review. I know you're just beginning the process, but it sounds like you're casting a fairly wide net both in looking at both buying and selling assets. So going back to kind of Steve's question, is, you know, this kind of the initial, you know, scope is to kind of cast it wide and see what kind of falls out of that process? Or, you know, as part of the strategic review, also looking at, maybe even a more in-depth sort of view of how to sort of, you know, change the business profile to your point on the differences between the public market, valuations on gas versus the electric?

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Thanks for the question. I think you're right. The goal here is to cast the net wide, to start broad and then kind of zoom back in. You know, we're gonna look at everything, you know. We're gonna start wide, cast back in, and we're gonna take a hard look at everything. I think I've said it, or I don't want to repeat myself, but we'll look at the portfolio, operational efficiencies, cap rotation, mix of electric versus gas, but everything's on the table, is the point.

James Thalacker
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Right. I guess, you know, the other question, I think Julian asked a question, too. I know, again, I realize you're six days on the job, and we're starting this process. You know, when you kind of look at, you know, monetizations or even acquisitions, I'm assuming that there's probably some guideposts, whether it be, you know, credit accretion or maintenance of credit or EPS accretive. Do you see from, you know, your previous vantage point a lot of opportunities to, you know, maybe go on the offensive and shift that mix through accretive acquisitions? Because in general, it seems like you know, there's not a lot of you know, really good values out there in the utility, especially when you go into a sort of a private market auction or even a competitive auction bid.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

Well, I think you know, if we buy, we're gonna look for value. I mean, you got to say that. When our job is to create shareholder value, and we're gonna look for accretive acquisitions if we purchase. If we sell, we're gonna try to get as much as we can for any asset that we have. I think that's the challenge in these strategic evaluations. Everybody wants to, you know, accomplish the same objective, right? Buy low, sell high. If we're in that game, you know, I think how you look at those things and how you do that and your criteria is gonna be really important.

Everything we do, I mean, is to gain shareholder value, which means we're gonna try to make everything accretive, but we also want to protect credit quality. I mean, you got to pay attention to balance sheet. We get all those things and we're gonna get after it.

James Thalacker
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Great. Thank you so much for that. Appreciate it, and best of luck.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO, Mr. Lloyd Yates.

Lloyd Yates
CEO, NiSource

First of all, thank you for your questions. I want to close by just reiterating just a few key takeaways. Our 2021 earnings of $1.37 per share exceeded the top end of our guidance range. Number two, we're reaffirming our guidance for 2022, $1.42-$1.48 per share, and our long-term growth commitments are reaffirmed as well. Number three, we continue to evaluate NIPSCO's portion of the investment needed to replace the retiring coal-fired generation outlined in the preferred plan from the 2021 IRP. Four, our strong regulatory execution continues. You know, further illustrated by, you know, got some late-breaking news last night that NIPSCO reached a settlement in principle in the gas rate case. The details to follow there. I mean, our regulatory team is really executing strong.

As Donald mentioned, we look forward to presenting the next phase of our strategy and financial plan at our Investor Day in May, where we'll kind of give an update on where we're moving with our broad strategic review. Thank you for your comments, and we appreciate you joining us this morning, and please stay safe. Thank you.

Powered by