Earnings Call: Q4 2018

Nov 20, 2018

Good morning, and welcome to the New Jersey Resources 4th Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis Puma, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Rocco, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to New Jersey Resources' 4th quarter fiscal 'eighteen conference call and webcast. I'm joined here today by Steve Westhoven, our President and COO Pat Migliaccio, our Senior Vice President and CFO as well as other members of our senior management team. As you know, certain statements in today's call contain estimates and other forward looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. We wish to caution listeners of this call that the current expectations, assumptions and beliefs forming the basis for forward looking statements include many factors that are beyond our ability to control or estimate precisely, which could cause results to materially differ from our expectations is found in Slide 1. These items can also be found in the forward looking statements section of today's earnings release furnished on Form 8 ks and in our most recent Form 10 ks and Q as filed with the SEC. We do not, by including this statement, assume any obligation to review or revise any particular forward looking statement referenced herein in light of future events. Turning to Slide 2, we will be referring to certain non GAAP measures such as net financial earnings or NFV. We believe that NFE provides a more complete understanding of our financial performance. However, NFE is not intended to be a substitute for GAAP. Our non GAAP financial measures are discussed more fully in Item 7 of our 10 ks. I'd also like to point out that there are slides accompanying today's discussion, which are available on our website and were also furnished on Form 8 ks this morning. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to our President and COO, Steve Westo. Steve? Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. As you know from our earnings release, we delivered another strong fiscal year. Looking at Slide 3, we reported net financial earnings of $2.74 per share for fiscal 2018 compared with $1.73 per share last year. Our higher results were primarily due to tax reform and increased performance by Energy Services. We added nearly 9,600 new customers at New Jersey Natural Gas, which exceeded our expectations. As a result, we increased our customer growth rate to 1.8 percent for 2019 through 2021. The safety and reliability of our system remains one of our top priorities. Since the start of our infrastructure programs, with the support of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, we have strengthened our system by replacing all of our cast iron, removing over 400 miles of unprotected steel pipe and eliminating all low pressure main from our system. Today, we have the most environmentally sound natural gas system in New Jersey. In fiscal 2018, Clean Energy Ventures added 3 new commercial solar projects and 9 10 residential solar customers. We now have approximately 7,300 residential solar customers across New Jersey. Our combined commercial and residential installed solar capacity now totals 231 megawatts. These assets are equal to removing the emissions from over 46,000 cars from our roads annually. Our strong financial performance continues to provide an attractive total return to our shareholders. This morning, we also announced our fiscal 2019 net financial earnings guidance range of to $2.05 per share. Slide 4 illustrates our NFE over the last 4 years. We target an NFE annual growth rate of 6% to 8%, which compares favorably to our peers. On Slide 5, you can see a breakdown of the expected future NFE contributions from each of our business segments. Our regulated businesses will continue to provide the majority of our total earnings. Looking at the pie chart to the left, we expect New Jersey Natural Gas to contribute between 45% to 50% to NFE and the midstream business to contribute between 5% to 15% to NFE. Infrastructure investments and customer growth will remain the principal drivers of our regulated businesses. This year, CEV is expected to contribute between 25% to 35% to NFV, which is higher than prior years. There are two reasons for this. 1st, to take advantage of the lower tax rate, we were able to align the timing of some of our SREC sales to 2019. 2nd, we expect to recognize the ITCs associated with our commercial solar projects placed into service this year. As indicated on the chart to the right, we expect CEV to return to a more normalized range of 10% to 20% in fiscal 2020 and beyond. And lastly, we expect Energy Services to contribute between 5% to 15% to NFE going forward. Moving to Slide 6, we increased our dividend by 7.3%, representing the 25th increase in the last 23 years. Our dividend strategy targets an annual growth rate between 6% to 8% with a target payout ratio of 60% to 65%. However, this may be affected by Energy Services outperformance as we saw in 2018. This approach allows for competitive return to shareholders while reinvesting earnings in the company to support future NFV growth. Turning to Slide 7. We continue to see strong customer growth at New Jersey Natural Gas. Expectations were exceeded by adding approximately 9,600 customers this year, a 5% increase over 2017. The strength of the residential construction market, particularly in Ocean County remains the driving factor behind our growth. Today, we expect 65% of our customer growth to come from new construction. We've increased our forecast over the next 3 years to be between 28,000 to 30,000 new customers. This is an increase of approximately 1,000 customers from our prior estimates. Based on current rates, this will add cumulative utility gross margin approximately $16,500,000 over our 3 year planning period. Moving to Slide 8, I'd like to provide an update on the Southern Reliability Link. We are excited to report that we have completed the bidding process and will begin construction of Phase 1 of this project in the Q1 of fiscal 2019. We expect SRL to be in service in 2019 and plan to recover the capital cost associated with the project through a future rate case. I'd like to update you on the Delta Gateway project on Slide 9. As you know, we signed an agreement to acquire the Pennsylvania pipeline for $166,000,000 We intend to convert the 50 mile southern section to natural gas. We also plan to bring the entire project under FERC jurisdiction. On October 19, 2018, we received a notice of schedule for the environmental review from FERC. This is an important step forward in the process. FERC's schedule states that it expects to issue the environmental assessment for the project in January of 2019. We are optimistic that Adelphia will move quickly through the FERC approval process since the project will have minimal environmental impacts as it relies on existing infrastructure, brownfield locations and established rights of way. We expect Adelphia Gateway will be in service in fiscal 2019 and contribute materially to earnings in fiscal 2020. Turning to Slide 10. I'd like to take a moment to discuss the performance of Energy Services during the fiscal year. As you can see from the chart, Energy Services had an excellent year. We substantially exceeded expectations due to extreme market volatility experienced in the first half of fiscal twenty eighteen. This allowed us to take advantage of favorable pricing spreads in the physical natural gas market. We are forecasting Energy Services NFE contribution to return to a normal range of 5% to 15%. While there's an opportunity for additional earnings in the event of extreme market conditions, we do not factor this into our earnings guidance. On Slide 11, I'd like to update you on Clean Energy Ventures. During fiscal 2018, we made a total capital investment of about $100,000,000 for projects placed into service. This year, we have already placed 2 projects into service and expect to complete another 4 projects before the end of the fiscal year, 3 of which are currently in the permitting process. The 4th project has been identified and we expect to have it contracted in the Q1 of fiscal 2019. These 6 installations total over 50 megawatts of capacity and represent an investment of 100 and $31,000,000 of ITC eligible capital for fiscal 2019. We serve approximately 7,300 residential customers through our Sunlight Advantage program. And this year, we plan to add another 1,000 residential solar customers. As you know, New Jersey passed the Clean Energy Act in May of 2018 and the BPU has been tasked with developing and implementing incentive program for the new projects. We continue to work closely with the BPU, the governor's office and legislators to help ensure solar remains viable for future investment, while contributing to the state's clean energy goals. Finally, I'd like to mention that we remain on track to close the sale of our remaining wind assets in the Q1 2019. I'd like to turn the call over to Pat now for some details on the financials. Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Building on Steve's comments, we actively hedge our SREC production to lock in revenue for future energy years, results of which are shown on Slide 12. As you can see, about 90% of our SREC sales from facilities currently operational and those under construction are hedged for energy years 2019 2020 at average price of $192 per SREC. For energy year 2021, the hedged amount is 58% at $192 as well. We will continue to hedge through fiscal 2019 with a focus on increasing our hedge ratios in the outer years. As we close out fiscal 2018, I provided a breakdown of the changes from year to year in each of our principal subsidiaries. You can see the tax reform had a major impact on all of our businesses, but you can also clearly see the outperformance of Energy Services. On Slide 14, I'd like to highlight a couple elements of our capital spending plan. For New Jersey Natural Gas, we expect to spend $475,000,000 in fiscal 2019. The increase in spending this year is attributed to SRL construction, meter exchanges, new facilities and information technology investments. For midstream, we expect to spend over $300,000,000 in fiscal 2019 as we anticipate bringing the Adelphi Gateway project online. As you can see on Slide 15, the majority of our financing in fiscal 2019 will come from long term debt and the sale of our wind assets. We expect to raise about $60,000,000 of incremental equity above our dividend reinvestment program. Strong cash flows in fiscal 2020 2021 support over $1,000,000,000 of investment with relatively small equity needs. We believe our cash flows and financing plans will continue to support our strong financial profile now and into the future. I'll now turn the call back to Steve for some final thoughts. Thanks, Pat. Before I open the call for questions, I want to summarize what's ahead for fiscal 2019. For New Jersey Natural Gas, we have an upcoming infrastructure filings in a rate case, which is due by November 2019. We expect SRL to be in service this year and plan to add 9,600 new customers from construction and conversions. In our Midstream segment, we anticipate Adelphi Gateway will be in service in 2019, a significant milestone for our company. This will result in a meaningful contribution to earnings in 2020 and increase our total regulated NFA. At Clean Energy Ventures, we expect to place 6 commercial solar projects into service, increasing our total solar capacity to more than 2 90 megawatts. We also expect to close on the sale of the remaining wind portfolio assets, which helps reduce our external financing needs. I'm optimistic for the year ahead. We have a great team of employees who are dedicated to executing our strategy, and I want to recognize their hard work that drives our performance. Thank you for joining us today. And now I'd like to open up the call to questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. And today's first question comes from Dennis Coleman of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone. Just a couple of quick ones for me. On the SRL, so construction will start, is it already started? I guess you're saying it'll start this quarter? It's going to start this quarter. That's right. Okay. So all the permits are in place, all the road opening, everything that we've been waiting for? We're still waiting for the Burlington County road opening permit, but we that's moving forward in process and we expect to receive that soon. So I'm sorry, just to press a bit. I guess then the construction, this will be on the base, is that that's where the construction will start? That's correct. Got it. Got it. Perfect. And then just one quick one. On the O and M expense in the Energy Services segment, pretty volatile, I guess, with earnings. Is that compensation related stuff? Is that how we should think about that? Dennis, this is Pat Migliaccio. Certainly, an element of it is compensation related. Most of those accruals or incentive payments are accrued in the 3rd and 4th quarters as we get line of sight on what the actual results are going to be. But also remember that energy services demand charges that they pay for both transportation and storage contracts are generally flat, while we earn margin on a volatile basis more in the winter than in the summer. And so, those are the 2 contributing factors. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, And our next question comes from Michael Gogler of Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Mike. Good morning, Mike. Just looking at the weather forecast here in this quarter and your guidance, just wondering if you've factored that into the quarterly outlook and the annual outlook given we're looking at some very cold weather here, particularly as it pertains to Energy Services? Mike, just a quick comment on that. It's certainly been a cold this fall, but it's way too early in the fiscal year to start changing or making adjustments to our guidance range right now. But certainly, the market has had some decent volatility and it's been constructive. Okay. I guess that's the most I'm going to get out of you? Absolutely. All right, Steve. Thanks. And this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to the management team for any final remarks. All right, Rocco. Thank you very much. Thank you all for joining us this morning. I just want to a reminder that a recording of this call is available on our website for replay. As always, we appreciate your interest and investment in New Jersey Resources. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone. Goodbye. Thank you. And thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.