Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 4th Quarter and Full Year 2017 NRG Energy's Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin Cole, Head of Investor Relations.
You may begin.
Great. Thank you, Sonia. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's 4th quarter and full year 2017 earnings call. This morning's call is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast, which can be located in the Investors section of our website at www dotnrg.com under Presentations and Webcasts. As this is the earnings call for NRG Energy, any statement made on this call that may pertain to NRG Yield will be provided from NRG's perspective.
Please note that today's discussion may contain forward looking statements, which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events except as required by law. In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non GAAP financial measures.
For information regarding our non GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most direct comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation. Now with that, I'll turn the call over to Mauricio Gutierrez, NRG's President and CEO.
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined this morning by Kirk Andrews, our Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call and available for questions, we have Chris Moser, Head of Operations and Elizabeth Killinger, Head of our Retail Business. I'd like to start the call by highlighting the 3 key messages for today's presentation on Slide 4. First, we delivered on our 2017 goals, and we are reaffirming 2018 guidance.
After a year of relentless focus on multiple transformative priorities, We have a much clearer path to value, and I am very optimistic about the potential for upside in our business, particularly given the strength we're seeing in our core markets. 2nd, we have made significant progress in executing on our transformation plan. Our sale announcements over the past few weeks have brought us to over 90% of our target asset sale proceeds. We have also significantly exceeded our 2017 cost savings target and remain on track to achieve our target credit metrics. And 3rd, with the vast majority of our asset sales now announced and as a reflection of our confidence in the outlook for our business, we are announcing a $1,000,000,000 share buyback authorization with the first $500,000,000 program to begin immediately.
Now turning to our transformation plan update on Slide 5. As you can see by our scorecard on the left hand side of the page, we're making good progress. We have realized $150,000,000 of recurring EBITDA accretive savings during 2017, which is over 200% of our original target of $65,000,000 The excellent work throughout the organization and the focus on our continuous improvement initiative led to a jump start of our cost program early last year. This meant that we were able to pull forward some of our 20 18 initiatives and exceed our target for 2017. Looking forward, we remain on track to achieve our $590,000,000 in total run rate cost savings by 2020.
Our margin enhancement target is also on track with details of this initiative to be covered at our Analyst Day. Now moving to our portfolio optimization. Today, we're announcing the sale of our Boston Energy Trading and Marketing Business or BETM for $70,000,000 in proceeds. This transaction is intended to further simplify, streamline and focus our business and brings our total announced proceeds to over $3,000,000,000 We remain on track to close all of our recently announced transactions by the end of the year and we will update you on our remaining asset sales as they progress. Last, we continue to strengthen our capital structure.
We are on track to achieve our target net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3 times by the end of the year. With the asset the recent asset sale announcement, we now have line of sight to significant capital that can be deployed to our other capital allocation priorities. I continue to believe that our current stock price does not reflect the value of our business and presents the best return opportunity for our capital at this time. I am pleased to announce that we have authorization for $1,000,000,000 share repurchase program with a $500,000,000 program to be launched immediately. And as we progress towards the closing of the asset sales and upon completion of our initial repurchase program, we will look to execute the remaining $500,000,000 of our $1,000,000,000 program.
Moving to Slide 6 with our business and financial highlights. It was a busy year that challenged us to make our business stronger in order to position ourselves for long term success. Despite of all of these moving pieces throughout the year, as well as the devastation of Hurricane Harvey in our core Gulf region, we not only achieved top decile safety performance, but it was our 2nd best safety year in company history. This is a testament to the culture and focus of our employees and I want to express my gratitude to all of my colleagues for their hard work and for keeping safety our top priority. Now with respect to our financial results, we ended the year with just under $2,400,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA and almost $900,000,000 of free cash flow at the NRG level.
Our Generation business performed well in light of a mild summer and our Retail business delivered its 4th consecutive year of EBITDA growth with $825,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in 2017. Hats off to the retail team, which continues to deliver outstanding results every year. Now in addition to our transformation plan targets, during 2017, we also executed on our objective to find a comprehensive resolution for Genon, resulting in a reorganization plan that was approved by the bankruptcy court in December of 2017. The plan is intended to transition Genon to a standalone entity and provides NRG with certainty and visibility into the timing and services that need to be provided to Genon in this transition period. On Slide 7, I want to briefly describe the impact of our actions over the past 2 years on our portfolio.
We will have an opportunity to discuss these impacts in greater detail at our Analyst Day. But in the meantime, I'd like to highlight just a few of the ways we're simplifying and improving our vertically integrated power business. First, we are reducing our capacity by over 1 half to roughly 20,000 megawatts and focusing our business on our core Texas and East markets to better match our retail business. As we are scaling back our generation, our retail business continues to be strong with a steady increase in customer count and continued solid earnings. And as you can see on the 3rd row of the slide, the EBITDA contribution from the retail business is becoming increasingly important, going from 25% in 2016 to 60% in 2018 of our total earnings.
These changes will increase the visibility and stability of our earnings profile given the better balance between generation and retail. It also increases our EBITDA to free cash flow conversion. NRG has always been a cash flow machine. And with these changes, we will make our conversion even more efficient. We will improve our free cash flow conversion from 21% in 2016 to over 60% in 2018.
Our ratio unmatched in our industry. Our business is changing. It is improving. We are rightsizing the portfolio and becoming leaner, stronger and better positioned to create shareholder value, both today and into the future. Now the markets continue to show signs of steady improvement as highlighted on Slide 8.
Over the past several years, we have highlighted to ERCOT regulators and stakeholders the extensive risk of retirements and the slowdowns in new builds given chronic low prices. Now and as expected, these dynamics are causing significant market tightening and we're entering the summer of 2018 with the lowest reserve margin on record at 9.3%. This is well below the target reserve margin of 13.75%. In the power prices in the forward markets for ERCOT are responding to these tight market conditions and have moved dramatically the past few months, per megawatt hour for the summer, as you can see on the left hand chart. This is a stark comparison to the average summer price of the past 6 years of only $35 per megawatt hour.
At NRG, we're all working to ensure our plants are ready to meet demand and provide customers solutions to proactively manage their energy bills. Now in competitive markets more broadly, there have been a persistent calls to action for reform across states and across power markets. We continue to work with regulators and customers to make sure that competitive markets are not disruptive. From a generation or retail perspective, We must get the pricing signals right in generation markets and improve the way that customers are able to access and consume power in the retail power markets. At the federal and state level, we see many indications of positive market momentum towards these objectives, and we will continue to be a vocal advocate for competitive markets.
Now turning to Slide 9, I want to provide a capital allocation update. During my first call as CEO 2 years ago, I told you that given the deep cyclical nature of our sector, we have to first ensure the robustness of our balance sheet when deploying capital. We wanted to leave no doubts about our ability to deliver on the value that we knew existed in our portfolio during any market cycle. We therefore focus on strengthening our balance sheet and paying down debt. Since 2016, we have paid roughly $1,600,000,000 in debt and extended almost $7,000,000,000 of maturities, with most of them due well beyond 2022.
Our identified asset sales will also help us to reduce close to $8,000,000,000 of debt. And with $640,000,000 allocated towards deleveraging and another $1,200,000,000 of temporary cash reserve to achieve our credit metrics, we are well on our way to achieve our target net debt to EBITDA of 3 times by the end of the year. As we continue to meet our top capital allocation priorities, we are now pivoting to evaluate growth opportunities and returning capital to shareholders. Our immediate $500,000,000 share buyback is reflective of our commitment to seeking the value maximizing outcome for our capital. And as we progress towards closing our asset sales, we expect to execute on our additional $500,000,000 authorization.
So with that, I will now turn it over to Kurt for the financial review.
Thank you, Mauricio. Turning to the financial summary on Slide 11. In 2017, NRG generated $2,373,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA and $1,300,000,000 in consolidated free cash flow before growth, with nearly $900,000,000 of that cash flow available at the NRG level. For the year, retail delivered a robust $825,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA, including the impact of low commodity prices, execution on cost reductions and continued customer growth. Generation and Renewables delivered a combined $615,000,000 in 2017 EBITDA, including the one time impact of a non cash expense of approximately $60,000,000 due to excess oil inventory write down and the write off of obsolete spare parts inventory across the fleet.
NRG yield contributed $933,000,000 in line with expectations. Including today's announced sale of our Boston Energy Trading and Marketing business, the total transformation plan asset sales announced or closed to date totals $3,000,000,000 or only $200,000,000 away from our revised target, which we expect to reach by 2019. In the Q4, we successfully refinanced our 2023 unsecured notes at a record low rate for NRG of 5.75%, reducing annual interest expense and extending the previous maturity by 5 years. In 2017, we also completed the reduction of just over $600,000,000 in corporate debt through the redemption of the remaining balances of our 2018 2021 notes. These redemptions eliminated our nearest corporate maturities and combined with interest savings on the 2023 notes refinancing led to annual cash interest savings of $55,000,000 I'd like to take a moment to address one element of our income statement, which is not included in our EBITDA results.
That is a non cash impairment charge on fixed assets and goodwill of $1,800,000,000 This charge primarily consists of a $1,200,000,000 impairment loss on our interest in the South Texas project or STP, our nuclear facility south of Houston. Our regular Q4 process of revising our forecast of power and fuel prices and the impact on plant cash flows resulted in the need to write down certain fixed assets, including STP. The portion of the total write down from goodwill impairment was approximately $100,000,000 and it was largely related to the announced sale of BETM. Turning to 2018 guidance, we are reaffirming our ranges for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth. Our 2018 pro form a numbers, which are based on the midpoint of guidance and reflect the implied 2018 contribution from retained businesses and transformation plan cost savings and margin improvements are also unchanged from our call last month.
Importantly, as shown in the bottom row of the table, our pro form a financials also demonstrate the significant cash flow efficiency benefits from our retained businesses as we convert over $0.60 of every dollar of EBITDA into free cash flow, a 66% improvement in cash flow efficiency versus 2017 results. Finally, as noted in the bottom right of the table, while our 2018 pro form a EBITDA includes a substantial portion of the cost savings and margin benefits of the plan. We expect an additional $275,000,000 of incremental EBITDA beyond 2018 as we reach our run rate of recurring savings by 2020. Turning now to Slide 12. We provided a financial summary of our 2017 NRG level capital allocation with changes since our Q3 update highlighted in blue.
We finished the year with $440,000,000 of excess capital remaining available for allocation, a $370,000,000 increase versus our 3rd quarter update. The substantial portion of the $370,000,000 increase is largely due to an increase in total available capital and a decrease in allocations due to a shift in timing of expenditures and commitments from 2017 to 2018. 1st, total capital available prior to allocations increased by $193,000,000 as shown on the far left of the chart. $92,000,000 of this increase reflects the difference between actual 2017 NRG level cash flow and the midpoint of guidance, which formed the basis for our previous update. The remaining $101,000,000 was a result of the sale of our Minnesota wind portfolio to a 3rd party as well as various distributed solar drop downs to NRG yield.
On the uses side, actual capital allocated to the GenOn restructuring was lower due to the shift in expected emergence from 2017 to 2018 following the quarter proved plan in December. Actual 2017 capital allocated to GenOn consists of the $125,000,000 draw by GenOn under the intercompany revolver in 2017, which will be repaid by GenOn upon emergence and NRG's pension contribution of $13,000,000 The balance of capital required for GenOn will be funded as a part of 2018 capital allocation, which I'll review shortly. Next, NRG's actual cost to achieve associated with the transformation plan were lower than original expectations, exclusively due to a delay in timing from 2017 to 2018. And finally, the remaining small changes in allocated capital reflect minor updates and actual costs related to the debt financing and the 2017 growth investments. The ending balance of $440,000,000 in excess capital at year end, shown on the right side of the slide, forms the basis for our 2018 capital allocation, which I'll now review on Slide 13.
Our expected capital from existing sources on the left of the chart on Page 13 includes the $440,000,000 ending 2017 balance plus the $1,000,000,000 of pro form a free cash flow from 2018. We expect this to be significantly augmented by the closing of our announced asset sales, which now include the sale of Bedam. The total net proceeds of $2,792,000,000 reflect the aggregate proceeds of our 2018 announced asset sales, net of transaction costs, leading to total expected 2018 excess capital available of just over $4,200,000,000 Turning to uses of capital, we have allocated just over $2,000,000,000 to the balance sheet. This is comprised of approximately $760,000,000 of permanent debt reduction and the balance of $1,200,000,000 expected to be a temporary reserve to ensure we achieve our target ratio of 3 times net debt to EBITDA. I'll review the basis for this $1,200,000,000 reserve in greater detail on the credit slide at the end of my section.
But we expect the $760,000,000 in 2018 permanent debt reduction to be necessary to achieve the 3 times net debt to EBITDA ratio in 2018 and beyond. However, due in part to the fact that as I mentioned earlier, in 2018, we will not yet realize $275,000,000 in recurring EBITDA from the full run rate of the transformation, our 2018 ratio does not yet reflect the full impact of the plan. As such, we are temporarily increasing our minimum cash balance in 2018 by $1,200,000,000 in order to achieve the target ratio. As our ratio improves over time, we would expect that this reserve would be released and available for future allocation. Next, as Mauricio mentioned earlier, we're allocating $1,000,000,000 of 2018 capital towards share repurchases, the first 500 of which we expect to begin immediately.
Dividends, which represent the balance of allocated return of capital shareholder are unchanged versus the 2017 rate. Turning to GenOn, we expect $178,000,000 of capital towards the remaining commitments under the plan as GenOn expected to merge in 2018. This consists of the $261,000,000 settlement amount and the 2018 pension contribution, partially offset by the repayment by GenOn of the intercompany revolver. We expect $246,000,000 in capital allocation toward the completion of our investment and cost to achieve under the transformation plan, including the amounts delayed from 2017 to 2018 I mentioned earlier. Finally, expected 2018 growth investments of $195,000,000 consists primarily of the Carlsbad project, which is more than offset by the drop down proceeds reflected in the asset sale bar to the left.
And Canal 3, which remains under option for purchase by Genon under the plan of reorganization. Based on these current allocations, this implies $613,000,000 of excess capital remaining to be allocated in 2018. Please turn to Slide 14, and I'll use this ending balance as a starting point to update the roll forward to pro form a 2020 excess capital we first provided last July as a part of the transformation plan announcement. Beginning on the left side of the chart on that slide, we start with the excess capital from 2018 of $613,000,000 I'll briefly walk from left to right to summarize the sources and uses in 2019 2020 to update our revised expected cumulative excess capital. 1st, using our pro form a 2018 free cash flow as a basis for 2019 2020 adds $2,000,000,000 of additional cash.
Next, as shown in the table above the 3rd green bar, we add $404,000,000 of cumulative incremental cash flow from the transformation plan, which is not reflected in our 2018 pro form a free cash flow. This incremental cash flow is primarily due to the increase in margin enhancements toward the 2020 run rate of $215,000,000 $90,000,000 in additional cost savings versus the 2018 rate and the $20,000,000 increase in run rate maintenance CapEx. Next, while our 2018 capital per allocation reflects the bulk of asset sales toward the target, we reflect the remaining balance of $205,000,000 in additional proceeds expected by 2019. $90,000,000 of additional cumulative cash flow reflects 2 years of cash interest savings on the $640,000,000 of permanent corporate debt reduction we assume to take place at year end 2018. Turning to uses, $88,000,000 of debt amortization reflects the final portion of the repayment of Midwest Gen capacity monetization shown as debt for accounting purposes as well as ongoing, but relatively de minimis amortization on our term loan.
$30,000,000 represents 2 years of our ongoing commitment to fund GenOn pension contributions as part of the plan. And finally, dollars 75,000,000 to fund 2 years of annual dividends at the current rate, which of course will be slightly lower based on the share buyback. We had the release of $1,200,000,000 cash reserve I spoke about earlier to arrive at implied balance of just over $4,300,000,000 in excess capital through 2020, which for comparative purposes is $5,300,000,000 before taking into account the 2018 share buyback allocation and represents in the aggregate over 60% of our current market capitalization. And finally, turning to a brief update on pro form a 2018 capital structure on Slide 15. First, we've modified this slide on the left side to more clearly reflect our consolidated debt balance and pro form a debt balance in the context of targeted divestitures.
Just over $8,100,000,000 of our ending consolidated debt balance will be eliminated upon the closure of the sale of NRG Yield and Renewables business as well as the associated drop downs to NRG Yield. What remains is a pro form a consolidated debt balance of $8,500,000,000 $1,300,000,000 of which is non recourse debt. Approximately 90% of this remaining balance of non recourse debt is the project debt balance at the Ivanpaugh project level, which amortizes funded by project level cash flows over the remaining life of the The balance of non recourse debt at what remains of the Midwest Gen capacity monetization transaction, which is treated as debt for accounting purposes and is fully repaid by 2019. Turning to the right side of the slide, our 2017 recourse debt balance of $7,186,000,000 will be further reduced in 2018 by the term loan amortization and the permanent corporate debt reduction as a part of the transformation plan and included in 2018 capital allocation. For presentation purposes, we've included only the $500,000,000 minimum cash balance and the $1,200,000,000 cash reserve I spoke about earlier to derive implied net debt.
We assume that $613,000,000 in remaining excess capital in 2018 shown in the red box at the bottom of the slide has been allocated to other opportunities. The denominator of ratio starts with our 2018 pro form a EBITDA, which does not yet reflect the full run rate impact of the transformation plan with $275,000,000 of additional savings expected beyond this year. We deduct the EBITDA from non recourse entities, Ivapod, MidwestGen and add back the cash distributions from those subsidiaries as well as consistent with our previous slides on credit ratios, certain non cash expenses included in EBITDA. Our net debt balance of $4,800,000,000 temporarily reduced by the $1,200,000,000 cash reserve reflects a ratio of 3 times our pro form a recourse EBITDA, in line with our revised target. With that, I'll turn it back to Mauricio for closing remarks.
Thank you, Kirk. Just a few final remarks on our priorities for the year on Slide 17. And as always, our first priority is to deliver on our financial and operational goals. We're focused on executing our transformation plan objectives and bringing our announced asset sales to a timely close in the second half of the year. In 2017, it was a priority to find a comprehensive resolution for Genon.
And during the year, we were able to achieve this objective. Now, with a planned confirmation by the courts, we're focused on working with GenOn on transition services, so that GenOn may be a standalone company by September of 2018. I want to acknowledge that 2017 was an important year for our company, and we underwent a series of changes stemming from multiple strategic initiatives. I am very proud of our success in greatly simplifying our business and positioning ourselves to thrive under any market cycles. I look forward to continuing our conversation about the long term strategy and prospects of the company at our Analyst Day on March 27.
I want to thank you for your time today and your interest in NRG. And with that, Sonia, we are now ready to open the lines for questions.
Thank you. Our first question comes from Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning, Stephen.
Congratulations on continued progress on your transformation plan.
Thank you.
Wanted to first touch on Texas. We share your optimism about the tightening supply demand balance. Can you speak to how you're likely to be positioned for the summer just at a high level? I know it's challenging to tell us exact megawatts of open position. But to the extent that we do see relatively high summertime prices, how can we think about the strategy for remaining open and positioned to take advantage of such price moves?
Right. So Stephen, let me answer the question with, I guess, two timeframes. The first is 2018 because we have seen a pretty significant increase in prices for this summer and then perhaps longer term, which is more of a structural change. So for summer of 2018, our generation business is very well positioned. We actually disclosed in the appendix our hedge percentages now on a pro form a basis.
And as you're going to see, we are about 30% open on our heat rate exposure. So we are from a generation standpoint, we're well positioned to benefit from the market tightening or the tightening conditions that exist in the market. Our retail business is well positioned as well. As you recall, we back to back all our retail, I guess, loads and about half of our portfolio is fixed price. So you should expect that half of the portfolio is completely locked in and the margins are locked in.
The other half is in variable pricing. We take steps to manage that load. And as the load progresses and it fixes their price, we can what I described is detail or perfect the hedges that we have on that variable pricing loan. Now longer term, 2019 beyond, our generation business is pretty open as you can tell on the hedging we're just not going to have a chance to have new builds in the span of 1.5 years or 2 years. Our retail business on the other hand, as you appreciate, if there is a structural change in the Texas market, all retailers will see this new level of pricing in the market.
So first of all, it doesn't put us in any disadvantage. Number 2, having our generation business, it offsets a little bit the margin compression that you should expect from or that you could expect from higher prices in our retail business and more than offsets that. And then the final thing that I will say is volatility creates opportunities and it creates opportunities for retail companies and generation companies that are well positioned. We saw it during the polar vortex and we actually are ready to capitalize on this opportunity as perhaps customers look want to move to retail companies that are better capitalized, that have generation behind them and superior service that we provide. So we see that also as an opportunity.
That's very helpful. Shifting over to growth opportunities, you obviously are generating a great deal of excess cash that could be deployed on organic growth opportunities. How do you think about the fields of opportunities? Is this a target set of opportunities you're looking at? Or given where you stand today, is it relatively likely we should see fairly sizable additional share repurchases just given the implied return in your own stock?
Yes. Well, I mean, first is the latter part of your question, which is we're deploying $1,000,000,000 because we believe the returns on our stock are pretty attractive. And number 2, we are always evaluating the market in terms of attractive opportunities. What I will say is just given where the market conditions are, those attractive opportunities are perhaps more likely in the retail business than in the generation business. And that's where we're going to be focusing.
I mean, keep in mind that in the East, we're still long generation. We need to continue growing our retail business both organically and perhaps if there is an attractive opportunity in the retail sector, we will evaluate that. But without a doubt, right now, the most compelling return for our capital is our own stock, and that's what we're focusing on.
That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Steven.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Hey guys, this is Antoine Foro, Julien actually. How are you?
Hey, good morning.
Hi. To come back a little bit on the capital allocation beyond the $1,000,000,000 buyback, how would you guys think about a recurring dividend program in terms of payout and yield?
Yes. I mean, it's one of the options that we have to returning capital to our shareholders. We laid out our priorities a couple of earnings calls ago. And when I think about capital deployment and capital allocation, it's just using those principles that we have already articulated to you. We need to make sure that our business is performing at the operating and financial level that we want.
Now that we have line of sight the asset sales on our credit metrics, then it gives us the opportunity to start thinking about growth or returning capital to shareholders. And in the returning capital to shareholders bucket, I mean, we have the share buybacks or a dividend. And right now, just given where the stock is, we have opted to execute on our on share repurchases. But dividends are a very viable way to returning capital to shareholders. We're going to continue evaluating that throughout the year.
And once we finish with our initiatives and complete the repositioning of our portfolio, then we will have a robust conversation internally and with our Board of Directors to see what is the best way to return capital to shareholders. But hopefully, the announcements that we're making today demonstrate that are clear examples of our commitment to be very disciplined when it comes to capital allocation.
Got it. And then can
you give us a bit more detail on the $215,000,000 retail EBITDA enhancement in terms of how you plan to achieve that and whether the timing you laid out previously has changed at all?
Yes. So you're talking about the margin enhancement for retail, right?
Right.
Yes. We provided some information about that when we announced the transformation plan. And in subsequent calls, I will tell you that we're investing heavily in our retail business, both on our asset sale channels, on our IT platform and just the further integration of generation and retail, which helps us manage or better manage and optimize our margins. In the Analyst Day, one of our objectives is to provide you a lot more visibility and clarity in terms of how do we plan to achieve the $250,000,000 The only point that I also have made in the past is, if you look at what we have achieved the last 3 years, we actually grew our retail business by $200,000,000 So what we're saying is in the next 3 years, we're going to grow it by another $200,000,000 We have done it before, it's achievable, but I am very mindful that we need to provide a lot more specificity about how we're going to do that and I intend to do that with my colleagues, particularly Elizabeth and Rob as responsible as of the retail businesses to provide more specificity about how we're going to do it.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you,
Antonio. Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Thanks. Good morning.
Hey, good morning, Greg.
Just a little bit of cleanup on the Q4 and fiscal year results. The EBITDA came in a bit below the guidance range, but despite that, the free cash flow was quite robust. Can I attribute that to that write down that you guys called out in Q4 that was non cash, the $60,000,000 as being sort of the key thing that took you down below the range?
Yes, Greg, it's Kirk. That's correct. I mean, that's one of the reasons why I highlighted that non cash, non recurring impairment charge, which the larger impairments on the fixed assets, that's just the acceleration of depreciation, which is part of EBITDA. But because that's inventory, which would normally go through COGS, we chose to leave that obviously as part of our deduct to get to EBITDA, but obviously highlighting the fact that that's one time and non cash. Couple of other elements as we roll through other of which are non cash, we made an accrual for a potential liquidated damages due to the delay of the Carlsbad project.
I think that was like zip code of $20,000,000 of accrual towards the year end. And the remainder of sort of the unexpected variances, if you want to call it that, for lack of a better term, we had is largely related to really the renewable side, which is really still consolidated. We had some delays in projects reaching COD, which obviously delays their contribution of EBITDA. But overall, the main one to highlight is the $60,000,000 you started with.
Great. Two more questions. On the $600,000,000 change $1,000,000 that's currently unallocated, I presume you're going to give us some more guidance on how you're going to allocate that capital at the Analyst Day. And so that gets sort of been held back until you can give us a sense of how you're focusing the business strategy and therefore where you're going to allocate those dollars?
Yes, Greg. I mean, we'll provide you some more clarity during the Analyst Day. But what I can tell you today is we're going to be applying the same capital allocation principle that we have applied to date. So while we will do that at the Analyst Day, I don't think you should expect any big surprises in terms of the disciplined approach that we're taking on capital allocation.
Great. And my last question, I think Steven Bird alluded to this earlier, just be a little bit more direct. It's always been, in hindsight over the years, a mistake to get too excited too early in the year in terms of guidance ranges and changing them. But forward curves and power market dynamics have improved quite significantly since you gave the guidance range. So are you can you give us any sense of given how you've hedged the portfolio, whether forward curves were to hold up at these levels for the remainder of the year?
Where do you sort of be within the guidance range? Or is it just too early in the year for you to want to get too excited about it?
Well, I mean, first of all, we're very comfortable with the guidance that we have provided today. That's why we're affirming it. Number 2, we're not going to tell you specifically how we are positioning ourselves for the summer. I mean, we provided you the hedge disclosures on the appendix. And as you can tell, we are roughly about 30% open on our total portfolio for heat rate exposure.
So the commercial team and Chris Monser is managing very closely the position in the summer. Now with the further integration that we have between generation and retail, we have a pretty good line of sight in terms of the needs that our retail business needs, has to mitigate any potential impact on it. But where I stand today, I just feel very, very comfortable with the position of our business and the guidance that we have provided to you.
Okay. Thank you guys. Have a great morning.
Thanks, Greg.
Thank you. And our next question comes from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Hey, good morning. Hi, Mauricio. So the just I know I've asked this in the past, but just you do give the continued benefits of the cost cutting and the margin enhancement out to 2020.
Just the base business excluding that and I know there's a lot of moving parts, but is it fair in the past we've talked about it being kind of assume flattish off of the base in 2017 2018. Is that still kind of a fair thing to do or any guidance there on other drivers?
Yes. Steve, it's Kirk. I mean, obviously, you already referenced the sort of the on the come aspect of the transformation plan at 275. But setting the transformation plan trajectory to the side, yes, we feel comfortable with the underpinnings of the base business, which is what informed our confidence to sort of reaffirm using that as an anchor in that roll forward walk that I provided for you. Our outlook is consistent with that perspective over the long term beyond 2018, yes.
Okay, great. And then on the one sorry, one more question on ERCOT and specific really to the summer peak, could you talk about your generation to load match at summer peak days, periods, etcetera, in terms of protecting in the event there is high volume, spiky pricing?
Hey, Steve. Chris Moser here. I would think of it this way. With the integrated portfolio, the final position in any given hour is going to depend on where the retail actuals come in and where the and how the units perform in that given random hour out of the 700 on peak hours we're going to see. If it's a high load, high price situation, we we're set up to be we're just fine in that situation.
If it is extreme load and extreme price that's going to limit the upside as the units length ends up covering and protecting retail margins. So but in an extreme load, extreme price situation in 2018 that should have some carry forward and bleed through into 2019 and beyond, which should give us some pretty good hedging opportunities in the forwards. And that's keep in mind that's an area where retail retains a lot of pricing flexibility given that they're not they haven't sold everything out there yet. So I feel like we're in a pretty good shape right now.
Okay. One last question and you may want to leave this to the Analyst Day, but just your main peer company talked a little bit about thinking about whether they might want to look to investment grade credit metrics or rating in the future. Is that a priority for you at all? Or is that really not something that you're focused on?
Yes. Steve, it's Kirk. Not primarily focused on it. I mean, certainly, improvements in credit ratings are something certainly to aspire to from a cost of capital and reliability of access in the markets as you sort of leg up the scale, if you will. But I think we feel comfortable with sort of the zip code of that BB ratio striking the right balance between delivering the right equity return to our shareholders on the one hand and managing the risk of the balance sheet on the other and most importantly, maintaining our confidence in the access to reasonably priced capital even through the cycle.
That's not to say we continue to look towards that. I mean, as I think I maybe even said in a prior call, maybe the last call we had, we don't look at our credit ratio objectives as I said it and forget it. We continue to review those in the context of what we see, including but not limited to the fact that obviously, the tax shield is not quite as robust today as it was a few months ago by virtue of the Tax Reform Act. So that's in contra review, but I think suffice to say, that's not a primary focus. We're comfortable with our BB target.
And Steve,
let me just add that we have been very clear about our priorities. We have communicated that to all of you. Those priorities are right now on execution. That's our focus right now is to execute on those priorities. And as Kirk mentioned, I mean, once we have demonstrated that we deliver on those commitments that we've made, then we will reevaluate.
But for now, our priorities are very clear and we're executing towards them.
Thank you.
Thank you, Steve.
Thank you. And our next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim. Your line is now open.
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Hey, good morning, Shahriar.
So most of my questions were answered, but just on sort of the dividend and just a quick follow-up. Is there longevity in the token dividend? So like as you sort of think about returning capital and assuming you decide it's more economic to buy back shares, why sort of retain this token dividend? Should we sort of think about it as either you potentially looking to enact a higher payout ratio and maybe growing that dividend given what your cash flow profile is, or removing the policy altogether? So why keep this dividend if you're going to maintain it at such a low level?
No, that is a good observation, Sharon. We actually have been having conversations internally about that. And as you can appreciate, we're going
to have we're going to
be talking to you in a more comprehensive basis around our capital allocation program, but importantly, in the context of our long term strategy and long term prospects that the company has. So if I this is something that we're going to be getting into more detail at the Analyst Day.
Okay. That's helpful. And then, Kirk, let me just follow-up real quick on sort of your leverage targets like and outside of ratings, you guys you do have a peer that's noticeably shooting below that. You've got the integrated utility Gencos that are certainly leaner. You have other cyclical industries that have tighter metrics.
Is 3 turns really optimal outside of ratings, especially given that you're kind of left without an industry, a sector and eventually going to have to benchmark yourself with other cyclical industries as you project sort of this message to investors. So what is optimal? Is 3 turns still optimal? Or is your thought process, could it evolve?
Well, to avoid repeating some of the things I said in response to Steve's question, we are comfortable and reaffirming that 3 times target. And what informs our thinking beyond what I've talked about in the past about strike and the right balance and everything else is cash flow context matters to us at the end of the day. And both Mauricio and I again reiterated our how pleased we are with what the knock on effect of what we're doing in the transformation plan means and our ability to more efficiently translate EBITDA to free cash flow. And legging towards 2 thirds or $0.67 of every dollar translating, that makes a big difference. So if I'm comparing apples to apples to somebody else's at a 2x net debt to EBITDA ratio, but they're converting $0.35 on every dollar where I'm converting $0.70 That calibration factor on cash flow, I think, is important not to ignore because it certainly informs our thinking.
And while EBITDA is a nice statistic, cash rules the day in terms of financial flexibility. And that, I think, is a distinction that's worth repeating.
Okay. That's helpful. Congrats, guys, on executing on the plan so far.
Thank you, Sean. Thank
you. And our next question comes from Andrey Storozynski of Macquarie. Your line is now open.
Thank you. I wanted to go back to the sensitivity of earnings to changes in heat rates. So when I look at Slide 24, where you show the sensitivity of your margins, especially for the Texas business, it seems largely unchanged versus what you showed us, I think, during the financial update and actually during the Q3 earnings call. So and you've had a pretty meaningful move in heat rates in Texas. So the sensitivity is versus the levels at the end of the year?
Is this versus the current guidance? What is the basis for that sensitivity?
This is Chris, Angie. I believe that that is as of this week. Are you looking at the heat rate sensitivity $54,000,000 Texas 2018? That's what you're going to Yes. I'd think of it as $54,000,000 from what is arguably a higher spot.
Okay. And Angie, let me just because you were talking about comparing against previous disclosure. So I think it's important to mention that in this new hedge disclosure, I think we pulled out some of the portfolios or assets that we're selling, particularly the large end business. So if you I just want to make sure that the team is working with you to as you're looking at previous disclosures with new disclosures that you're comparing apples to apples. And this new hedge disclosure, I believe, does not include the businesses that are held for sale now.
So but that's an important I guess that's an important piece of information, Angie.
Okay. But there's nothing being sold in Texas, right? I mean, Texas generation assets are intact. So you're
saying that the okay.
We can follow-up. Let me just make sure I'm looking at the Q3 2017 earnings presentation where the heat rate sensitivity for Texas and South Central is 62 In the one that you have in front of you with the 54, it's Texas only, but we can run this down off the call if you'd like.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Angie.
Thank you. And we have time for one more question. Our final question comes from the line of Abe Azar of Witolde Bank. Your line is now open.
Good morning. Congratulations. Thank you, Abe. Just following up on your hedge profile. You remain more open for next year than I remember you being in recent years.
Is this a reflection of your view that there's potentially more improvement in the forward curves? Or is this a liquidity or something else?
No, it's 2 things and it goes to a little bit of what I was just talking to Angie about the if you're looking at the previous quarters, they would have had South Central included in that. And given that South Central has a pretty big short position in it against the co op contracts, when you pull that out and you're just looking at Texas by itself or Texas and the rest of the pro form a situation, it will look slightly less hedged. But given that South Central is give or take a 20% kind of a number, if you look back at 4Q 2016 for 2018, we were about 44% hedged gas. And if now we're at 4Q 2017, at 2019, it's kind of 26%. So that give or take rough and tough looks pretty similar to where we were on an apples to apples basis.
Unfortunately, Q4 2017, Q4 2016 aren't apples to apples because of the South Central being pulled out of the numbers on the 2017 number.
Yes. But I think it's fair to say that we were expecting a market tightening in Texas. We knew that the chronic prices were that we experienced over 6 years were going to accelerate retirements or slow down new builds. We position ourselves correctly. I think we're now seeing the benefit we will see the benefits in our portfolio.
And we will execute on our strategy on our hedging strategy just the way we have executed in the past. We're opportunistic based on our commodity pricing. We manage our credit ratios and our balance sheet. And now we also have to be mindful that the synergies that exist between matching generation and retail. So these are the three legs of our strategic hedging program.
We are not deviating from that. And I think you should expect as the year progresses and the market reprises itself or rerates itself that we will execute accordingly. Great. That's all. We'll see you at the end of the month.
Okay, great. Thank you, Abe.
Thank you. And this does conclude our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mauricio Gutierrez for any closing remarks.
Great. Thank you, Sonia, and thank you again for your interest in NRG. We're very excited about the changes that we have made in our portfolio and our business, and I look forward to talking to all of you at the end of the month. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.