Earnings Call: Q4 2011

Feb 16, 2011

Afternoon. My name is Philip and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Navidea Earnings Conference Call. All lines have Thank you. Mr. Haro, you may begin your conference. Thank you, Philip. Good afternoon and welcome to NVIDIA's conference call for the Q4 of fiscal 2011. With me on the call today from NVIDIA are Jensen Huang, President and Chief Executive Officer and David White, Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one initial question with one follow-up question. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's call is being webcast live on NVIDIA's Investor Relations website and is also being recorded. A replay of the conference call will be available via telephone until February 23, 2011, and the webcast will be available for replay until our conference call to discuss our financial results for our Q1 of fiscal 2012. The content of today's conference call is NVIDIA's property and cannot be reproduced or transcribed without our prior written consent. During the course of this call, we may make forward looking statements based on current expectations. These forward looking statements are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties and our actual results may differ materially. For a discussion of factors that could affect our future financial results and business, please refer to the disclosure in today's earnings release, our Form 10 Q for the fiscal period ended October 31, 2010 and the reports we may file from time to time on Form 8 ks filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All our statements are made as of today, February 16, 2011, based on information available to us as of today and except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update any such statements. Unless otherwise noted, all references to market research and market share numbers throughout the call come from Mercury Research or Don Petty Research. I would also like to remind everyone about our upcoming Financial Analyst Day on March 8, taking place at our headquarters in Santa Clara. If you are interested in attending, you can register on our Investor Relations website. With that, let's begin. Last month NVIDIA and TSMC shipped our 1,000,000,000 GeForce GPU. This milestone was less than 12 years in the making and over that period of time, the complexity of the GPU has increased more than one 1000 times. Having advanced from being a fixed function graphics accelerator to one of the most powerful programmable computing devices in the world, the GPU is enabling enormous progress in computers ranging from smartphones and tablets to PCs to game and game consoles to workstations and supercomputers. And in that time, the GPU has become the defining technology for every platform that uses it. Our new $1,500,000,000 cross licensing agreement with Intel underscores the growing importance of the GPU to the future of personal computing as well as to the expanding markets for mobile and cloud computing. Heading into the year, we have one of the best lineups of GPUs in the company's history. The GTX 580 remains in the top spot as the fastest DX11 GPU for enthusiast gamers. We extended our DX11 technology with the launch of the GTX 570 and the GTX 560 Ti, heralded by reviewers as category leaders for the 3.40 $9 $2.49 core gamer price segments. Our GTX product stack is the gamers choice and the results show. For the 2nd consecutive quarter, our desktop standalone GPU share grew increasing from 59% in Q3 to 61% in Q4 with higher share gains in the performance and enthusiast segments. And aside from our expectations to continue to gain share, there are several big events this year that can be catalyst for growth. 1st, Intel Sandy Bridge is the best gamer CPU in a long time. And with the SLI motherboards from Intel, ASUS, and others along with the new GTX 560 TI, it offers gamers a perfect opportunity to upgrade their PC. 2nd, great game is driving GeForce GTX sales. And this year we expect to see a number of highly anticipated games such as Crisis 2, Battlefield 3, Duke Nukem Forever, Portal 2 and Diablo 3. And 3rd, 3 d vision is all about enjoying games at a whole new level, driven by a great new 3 d Vision licensed products such as Acer's new 27 inches 3 d Vision panel and Dell's XPS 17 inches 3 d Vision notebook, we expect the 3 d Vision to grow 200% this year. NVIDIA's 3 d Vision content ecosystem is the largest in the industry with support for over 500 video games, Blu ray movies and our new 3 d web portal 3dvisionlive.com, which a wealth of streaming video and photographs. In notebooks, we announced a record number of divine wins for Intel Sandy Bridge platform. More than 200 new notebook models will feature our new GeForce 500M series GPUs. Adding GeForce is one of the best ways for OEMs to differentiate PCs with premium capabilities versus the basic platforms based on Intel's graphics. Unlike basic graphics integrated into Sandy Bridge CPUs, GeForce GPUs provide advanced features and compatibility for the latest PC games including those based on DX11. Tesla achieved over $100,000,000 in revenue in fiscal 2011. It's becoming conventional wisdom in technical computing that parallel processing delivers the highest performance as well as being the most energy efficient and cost effective. The world's greatest petaflops and supercomputers are built with Tesla GPUs. The Green 500 list of the world's most energy efficient supercomputers revealed that Tsubami 2.0 from the Tokyo Institute of Technology was ranked number 2 and was the only petaflop system in the top 10. 3 other Tesla based systems made the top 10 along with the systems in 11th, 12th and 13 spots. During the quarter, HP, Dell and IBM all entered into production with their Tesla powered servers. With the sales in the market of the world's largest enterprise sales force engaged, we look forward to accelerating the adoption of Tesla. Technical Computing Servers and Enterprises in the cloud represents a multi $1,000,000,000 growth opportunity for Tesla. CES was the coming out party for our Tecker 2 customers. Motorola, LG, Acer, Asus and Toshiba all announced their flagship smartphones and tablets to tremendous industry claim at CES. The Motorola Zoom with Android 3.0 won overall best of show and the AtriX won best of show in the smartphone category. And LG began shipments of the Optimus 2X in Korea in January. At CES, we also unveiled our long term processor initiative codenamed project Denver to develop custom CPU cores based on the ARM architecture. This initiative is focused on NVIDIA CPU running the ARM instruction set, which will fully integrated on the same chip as the NVIDIA GPU. It will target personal computers, servers and supercomputers. In addition to Audi, which we have enjoyed a deep a deep partnership since 2004, we announced 2 new partnerships at CES with BMW North America and Tesla Motors that will put NVIDIA processors and navigation and vehicle information systems across all next generation BMW cars worldwide and the Tesla Roadster Model S respectively. In this week at the Mobile World Congress, Samsung joined our marquee list of customers announcing their Galaxy Tab 10.1 and their plans for our next generation Tegra 2 superphone. LG also officially announced new Optimus Pad, which will be the G slate for T Mobile. Our highlight at MWC was a demonstration of Kalao, the world's 1st mobile quad core processor. Kalao, our next generation TEGRA SoC, which features a new 12 core NVIDIA GPU provides 5 times the performance of to strategic partners and based on our competition announcements week we believe are at least a year ahead of them. We are targeting to deliver CAL tablets and smartphones later this year. Our strategy with Tegra is to utilize our deep expertise in IP and computing to create processors for the mobile convenient revolution. We Tegrid to be the most advanced processor for mobile applications and to target the tablet segment, which is expected to be approximately 208,000,000 units by 20 14 and the smartphone segment which is growing at a compounded 19% annual growth rate to approximately 600,000,000 units in 5 years as estimated by the Gartner Group. And now with Microsoft's announcements, TEGRA can directly access the Windows PC market. Heading into Q1, our primary focus is to continue to wrap both our GeForce on Sandy Bridge and TEGRA2 customers into production. More importantly, our results are beginning to tell the bigger story about NVIDIA's transformation. Even as we are revolutions happening with mobile and cloud computing. We have never been more optimistic about our growth opportunities. With that, let me turn the call over to David. Thanks, Mike. Revenue for the Q4 was $886,400,000 up 5% sequentially. Gross margin of 48.1% was a record for the 2nd consecutive quarter. It was at the high end of our range, primarily as a result of Richard's GPU product mix than we had expected at the beginning of the quarter. GAAP OpEx was $247,000,000 This includes the Intel settlement of $57,000,000 Without it, our R and D and SG and A costs would have been a combined $304,000,000 in line with our estimates. Combined these results generated a GAAP net income of $171,400,000 or $0.29 per diluted share. Revenue by business segment was as follows. Our GPU business was up 5.5%. Our MCP revenue was down significantly as we entered into the final stage phase of that business, but this was more than offset by strong growth in desktop and notebook discrete. Our professional business was down slightly, Quadro was down, but this was almost completely offset by strong growth in Tesla. And our consumer business was up despite a seasonally down console business, thanks to strong TEGRO customer ramps. Turning to the balance sheet, our focus on inventory reduction continue to make progress as we were able to reduce it by another 8.5 percent to $345,500,000 Channel inventory was at or below expectations. These results together with receipt of our first payment from Intel allowed us to report cash balances of approximately $2,500,000,000 Our outlook for the quarter of fiscal 2012 is as follows. Revenue is expected to be up 6% to 8% from the 4th quarter. GAAP gross margin is expected to be 48.5 percent to 49.5 percent. GAAP operating expenses are expected be approximately $327,000,000 GAAP tax rate is expected to be between 16% 18%. That includes our prepared remarks. And with that, we'll now take questions. Your first question is from the line of Uchi Orji. Sure. Thank you very much. David, let me just start off asking you what's going on with desktop GPU ASPs. They were up significantly from the way we're looking at it. Is this a combination of a combination of seasonality or channel feel? And is this sustainable? That's my first question. Well, it's primarily mix. We launched 3 new products at the top of our product lineup, as Mike talked about in his comments. And those are all higher ASPs for the company. So they drove not only ASPs for us, but they also drove margin for us. All right. One other question I wanted to ask you. At Mobile World Congress, it seems like everyone is racing and this is for Mike. Is this a race to launch I have on Quad Core is, first of all, do you is there enough application now to take advantage of this level of power that you're bringing in at the end of this year? And then secondly, do you need 28 nanometers to make this profitably? Can you talk about the economics of that? That's my suggestion. Thanks. Hey, Uchi, I'll let Jen answer that question. How is that? Sure. Hi, Yuqi. Hi, Jen. Let's see. Quad Core, it is the case that the the year after. At Mobile World Congress, we demonstrated Cal L and there were quite a few systems on hand for demonstrating all aspects of Kalau, whether it was extreme high definition video, it has the ability to support very high definition displays. The overall horsepower and computational capability of Cal L is about 5x the performance of TEGRA 2 and has some really exciting new technologies for extremely low power operations, even though we have 4 CPUs inside our Intel IO processor. These are all the breakthroughs that we demonstrated at Mobile World Congress. Whereas some of the competitors seem panicked to announce something on their PowerPoint slides, we tend to announce a product when we're this year. With respect to the this year. With respect to the importance of quad core, obviously quad core is incredibly important otherwise it wouldn't be on all of the suppliers' roadmaps. We were the 1st in the world to announce and ship dual core. During that time, a lot of people asked us about that and now it's quad core. If you think about the tablet or mobile device applications, you'll realize that very quickly they're multitasking. You're multitasking whether you're streaming music while you're reading a book or you're playing a game and you're being connected to other players in a physics processing while you're playing a game. 1 of the most physics processing while you're playing a game. One of the most delightful parts of the games that people like these days, whether it's Angry Birds or others, it's just the realistic physics that it does. And the way that the bricks and the buildings fall apart are physically real and you're going to see more and more that type of capability over time. And so whether it's multitasking, whether it's image processing for of applications are all very, very intensive users of multi CPU cores. And last thing is, it's actually logical and completely intuitive if you think about it. But 4 CPU cores working less hard consumes less energy than 1 CPU core or 2 CPU cores working their butt off. And that's the reason why if you look at the PC industry, what people have said about the PC hitting the brick wall and hitting the power wall. Remember when CPUs were cranking at extreme high frequencies. Those are just bad ideas. Brute forcing CPU design and overclocking it and causing it to run extremely fast, it's just not a very good idea. It makes a lot more sense to run at the natural frequency of the semiconductor process and utilize all kinds of parallelism ideas. In the case of CPUs, we have 4 cores, in the case of the GPU, we have 12 cores. Using parallelism is the most efficient and also the highest performance approach to computing that we know. I mean, will it in terms of economics, will it be get it by 28 nanometer? Well, 28 nanometer is not available yet. So it's not an option this year. On the other hand, 40 nanometer is actually more economical than 28 nanometer this year and we'll likely expect it to be so until about first half, maybe even the midpoint of next year. So 40 nanometer is absolutely the right approach if it's most mature and we can go into very, very high production very, very quickly because the yields are so great. And your next question is from the line of Ambrish Srivastava. Hi. This is Emily calling in for Ambrish. Thank you for taking my call. For the TEGRA business, can you comment on the mix of that between smartphones and tablets today and where you see that as we exit the year? Well, it's hard to tell because it depends on how many smart phones and tablets our partners sell. And so it's really, really hard to tell. I mean, one of the things that we all have to recognize is the market for tablets is much, much larger than we all expected. And every single time an analyst comes out with another projection for the size of the tablet market, it gets bigger. And I think there's a couple of reasons for that. They're just wonderfully delightful to use. They're easy to carry around and you see more and more people now around tablets instead of surely instead of I've never seen anybody carry a net book around, but you're seeing more and more people carry tablets around the tablet the notebooks. And also even if you have a PC, you don't mind buying a tablet to it's it's an easy purchase. It's easy to use and delightful to use. And so I think people are surprised by the size of tablet market. My sense is that we're going to continue to be surprised by the size of the tablet market certainly as more and more capabilities come out. One of the things that we're really excited about is that these tablets are now completely flash accelerated. And so you can go to any website, you could run any application off the web that you respect to. And so those kind of new usage capabilities and this freedom to explore capability is something that we're quite excited about. And so it's just it's hard for us to tell right now. The thing that I can tell you is that our design wins are all Tier 1s. These are the marquee names of the mobile industry and the computing industry and have a great deal of faith in their ability to create exciting products and taking them to market. And so we'll just have to wait and see how it turns out. All right. And then within the GPU segment, can you comment on your expectation for ASPs on desktops and notebooks as the Sandy Bridge systems are rolled out? Our ASPs, it depends on 2 factors. On the one hand, most of the notebook ASPs are going to be lower than the GTX 580 and 570 to 560 we just recently rolled out. On the other hand, the GTX 570 560 are still ramping. And so it's hard to say exactly how it's going to play out. We're just going to have to report on the progress as we go. We're excited about the gamers market. The gamers market has 3 catalysts this year. One, there's some really, really big titles for PC gaming coming out. Crysis 2 is just really, really exciting. And so I think the enthusiasts come out when there's great new breakthrough games like Crysis. The second thing is, it's been a long time since the PC gamers had a basic platform upgrade opportunity. Sandy Bridge is the best CPU that's been built for PC gamers in a long, long time. And so we have SLI motherboards with Intel, we have SLI motherboards with Asynstech, with Gigabyte, with many others, so that gamers can upgrade their PCs with affordable, very low power and very high performance systems. And so when Sandy Bridge starts to ramp and the SLI motherboards start to shift here in the near future, we're going to have to see how many people come up for the upgrade. And then lastly is 3 d vision. When you can enjoy everything in the 3 d, it's just much more exciting. And 3 d vision basically doubles the resolution, 1 for Inchai, doubles the resolution that is needed to enjoy the game. And so that tends to drive higher end ASPs. And so we're just going to have to wait and see before we know, can tell for sure. And your next question is from the line of Harlan Sur. Hi. Thank you for taking my question and nice job on the quarterly execution. Within your guidance for the Q1, can you just give us a sense directionally about the quarter on quarter revenue trends for your 3 different segments? Well, Harlan, this is David. Hi, David. On the desktop side, typically we see some seasonality in there in Q1. That will probably modest for the business. Our notebook business is going to grow very nicely in Q1, primarily as a result of the Sandy Bridge platforms we'll be shipping in the quarter. And we expect obviously Tesla and Integra to continue growing and helping drive our revenue growth going into the new fiscal year. And then I think you said on your earnings release that you expect Quadro grow again in the Q1 as well? Yes, that's correct. Okay, great. And then one more question if I may. On Tigra, obviously the team has a rapid ramp ahead of them. And I think the concern with anything associated with the mobile and retail spaces, how do you monitor sell through to the end markets and to consumers and then to kind of triangulate that with the orders that you're getting from your handset and your tablet customers. So maybe you can take us through how the team plans to keep a close eye on sell into your customers versus sell through to the end markets? Thank you. I think the way I would look at that is in our larger businesses like Quadro and GeForce, we put a lot of energy into monitoring sellouts and sell throughs. And the reason for that is because we're such a large position in the marketplace. Tegra is a brand new product for us and we have almost zero exposure in the mobile industry and this is really our first major push into it. And the devices that we're in are not fringe or exotic devices. I mean, they're not transformer type devices or new three d displays where people aren't sure yet whether those adoption are going to be quite high or not. These are straight down the middle, high end and where the demand is the greatest superphone devices right now. And as you see from the devices, they're beautiful and they're the primary platforms for the marquee customers that we're working with. I mean, it is core to their business. These aren't fringe products. And so I think that from that perspective, I have relative amount of confidence that our partners are going to do a great job marketing them and the enthusiasm in the marketplace is already really, really high and the reviews have been great. So my sense is that we're going to do quite well. As we get to be a much larger player in the mobile space, we're going to have to develop those things that those kind of systems that we use for the PC industry where we monitor sell throughs and sell outs. And so we have to continue to do a better job with that. But at the moment, I think that we're going into, I guess, what people would consider Blue Ocean. Your next question is from the line of Friedman. Hi, great. Thanks for taking my question guys. Last quarter you mentioned that you thought that TEGRA could actually be above your chipset business. Would you care to comment on if that occurred or not? It did not occur this quarter, it will occur next quarter. Okay. Would it be possible for you to rank your product segments by gross margin, so we can sort of get a sense of where the gross margin benefits are really coming from? So, Doug, as we've talked about previously, our professional business, which includes both Quadro and Tesla are highest margin businesses for the company. And below that would be Tegra and our desktop notebook business below that. Tegra and then I'm sorry the desktop is Our desktop and notebook business, which are below our company average. Would desktop be above notebook? Yes. And then when we look at some of the OpEx numbers, it looks like this quarter you're planning on OpEx growth that looks a little bit above the revenue guided, especially if we were to strip out the $22,000,000 royalty payment. Can you comment on what we should think about for OpEx both in Q1 and throughout the balance of the year given the need to support all the TEGRA programs? Well, we're as we included in the CFO commentary, a lot of what's driving the really the 2 largest components that are driving operating expense really are the fact that our stock price has gone up and that's driving stock based compensation. And the other piece is hiring and engineering support materials and so forth for all of the products that we're launching. We will some of those investments we're making and are coming in Q1 proceed revenue that we hope to realize later on in the year as we see Tesla Integra and our other pieces of our business ramping as it relates to 327, which I think is what we guided for Q1 and how that's going to behave going forward. We won't have, for example, payroll tax for the full year and so forth. And so that will naturally go down and some other expenses will offset that. But I wouldn't expect it to be appreciably higher going through the year when you net all those things out. And I it's inappropriate to not include royalties as a part of our ongoing business. There are several businesses in our company where royalties is the natural way for us to engage our customers. And it does require innovation and engineering invention for us to benefit from those royalties. And so I think the 2 go hand in hand and it's not I wouldn't split it out. I would expect it to be an ongoing part of our business going forward. And your next question is from the line of Raj Seth. Hi, thanks. Thanks for taking the question. Jensen, a question on Tegra. You've talked before about chip IC companies having to become much more systems aware. I'm curious when you engage with key partners like HP, can you talk a little bit about how much sort of system level software integration you're doing, how much they're doing? And does your engagement model differ from your competitors in any way? Thanks. We're actually not engaged with HP. So you chose one that we're not actually Oh, I'm sorry. Yes. Forgive me, but any of your key partners? The answer is in the mobile space, there's just a lot of system software to do. And it is doing developing multimedia and system software technology is one of the areas where we just have an enormous amount of expertise because of building sophisticated computers over the years. And if you look at the PC, the amount of system software we have to do for it is every bit now the same in the mobile industry, if not more. And that's one of the reasons why we believe that mobile computing was going to be such a great opportunity for us that on the one hand, the modem will continue to be important. On the other hand, for certain classes of devices, whether it's the phones or tablets, its computing capability is one of the most important things. And in order to deliver on a great computing experience, the ability to create all of the system software from video to graphic to multitasking to all of the flash accelerations and just the enormous amount of Open GL and whatever it is and computer vision and imaging software and all of that kind of software working together in a just a really wonderful experience is hard to pull together. And this is something that we believe we have a great deal of expertise and a great deal of capacity to do. So we do quite a large amount of it. And it's we know our architecture best. This is an area that in terms of system software, few companies in the world has a very large capacity to do. The 3 companies that probably have the largest capacity in the world of system software is probably us, Intel and AMD, because of all the computers that we've built over the years. And we just have more people in system software with this expertise than just not anywhere else in the world. And so I think that this is something that is of great importance and is becoming more and more important and a greater and greater bottleneck. If you read some of the early reviews of Checkatoo phones, some of the comments that people are making are the stability and the performance of these phones right off the chute. Most of the phones that smartphones that you may have bought with the exception of Apple's products, frankly, you've had to debug into existence. And we think that that's not inherent to a phone, it's just because it's inherent to building great computers. And so I think this is an area of great differentiation for us. Can I ask a follow-up, if I might? So this is one of the differentiators. You've got a very aggressive road the key differentiators other than what you just talked about in the tablet market and handset market from your perspective? And over time, given the integration trends, at least in the handset market, is the lack of baseband and conductivity a material constraint or not for you in your view? Thanks. Computing capability that we're looking at is still rather nascent. The benefit that we have is and we described this at Mobile World Congress, the benefit that we have is the rich and deep pipeline of intellectual property that we can bring to bear as mobile devices become more and more computing capable. We put we went from a company that was working on basically 1.5 to 2 mobile chips to a company that now has 5 chips on the roadmap. And we're concurrently working on projects that go all the way out to 20 nanometer and beyond. We don't have to wait for anyone to create the computing technology for us to license. We have all the technology here for us to bring to bear and execute a really aggressive roadmap. And that's how we're able to year in, year out crank out leading edge products that as the rest of the industry is just putting it and talking about it on paper. With respect to modems, there are quite a few modem players in the world. I mean, you'd be surprised how many of them there are. Qualcomm is obviously a supplier and finance is a supplier, ST, Ericsson is a supplier. There are many others. And where our focus is on the segments of the marketplace where computing is really important. And we believe that there's a great deal of work that we can do here before we need to consider increase levels of integration. And then lastly, both the computing side and the modem side are going through very rapid innovation better video and better and better video capability and such. And on the other hand, modems are going from 2.5 gs to 3 gs to 4 gs. And so all of these are moving parts. Integration is the enemy of innovation. And so it's hard to move as fast when you have to integrate everything into one ship. And your next question is from the line of Rakesh. Yes. Hi, guys. I was just wondering, when you look at your TEGRA, obviously, it's ramping into a lot of multiple tablets here. What is the breakout in Q4? And how do you see that in Q1, Q2? If you would give us some more color on that? In Q1, in Q4, we just barely started shipping the early production ramp of the first partners. In Q1, we will be in quite significant production across many of the OEMs. So it's going to be quite a big step up. Got it. And just to take a step back, you had guided What was your guide, previous guide for TEGRA for the year end? Have you are you seeing any change on the upside or downside here as you've gone through the last couple of quarters and see it? We have not guided TEGRA for the year. Probably the new piece of information about Segura that is Cal Al going to production this year. I think I don't think anybody expected us to announce that. I don't think anybody expected us to have a roadmap that was this aggressive. And it was a surprise to all of our competitors and it was even a surprise to many of our customers. And so, all of our partners are in retooling mode right now on road map so that they can catch up to us on Kal Al. And so I'm excited about the second half of the year as the tablet market continues to develop and as we go into Kellogg. So those are that's a new piece of information that I think very few people realize and consider. Your next question is from the line of Tim Luke. Thank you so much. I was wondering, as you look at the revenue momentum, having had a strong uptick into April as you start the TEGRA round, do you feel that sort of rate of growth may be sustainable through into the July period? Or is it to some extent that you've had a big near term lift associated with the initial supply into the channel? And I was wondering, if you could have any framework associated with the expectation of the timeline for you to talk about these things, the growth opportunities, really the only thing you can really keep in mind is the size of the opportunity and the tablet opportunity is obviously larger than anybody expected. And I think people are getting a firmer grip on why it is that the tablet is such a wonderful computing device. Secondly, I think the partners that we are going to market with are undoubtedly the best in the world. If we had to choose the best Android partners in the world that are part of the market with, I think we've we could have chosen the better or less. And so, I think we're going to be able to address a very large market and address it with partners who could give us global reach. With respect to future TEGRAS, I'm not sure there was an exact question, but we haven't I haven't used the word TEGRA3 yet, but we demonstrated recently a processor called Cal L. It's an internal coding for the next generation processor. We haven't figured out we haven't decided yet what the market name is going to be. It is intended to be in production in Q3. Thank you. And for David on OpEx, if I may. Having seen the guidance move up around the $25,000,000 in the April quarter. Do you think that the rate of growth in OpEx through the next several quarters to support somewhat lower? Thank you so much. Tim, I think the magnitude quarter over quarter after Q1 should be much lower. You got 2 step functions that kind of impacted Q1. 1 was the restart of payroll taxes, which is pretty binary. And so we'll have to wait and see what happens to the stock price, but certainly the FICA won't be going and getting reset again. And I think in terms of our controllable expenses, in terms of engineering, materials and rents and all of those things, people costs and so forth, I wouldn't expect it to be rising as much as it did from Q4, Q1. Your next question is from the line of Patrick Wang. Thanks for taking my question. David, you're going to get a nice lift in gross margins over the course of this year due to your royalty payments. I was hoping you could talk about gross margins over time and perhaps how to think about that as your royalty steps up into the July quarter and beyond? Well, the royalty or license fee from Intel will contribute 2.5 to 3 points of gross margin starting in the through the year as well, particularly as Tesla, Integra products ramp. And I think even as our desktop business, our high end GTX 560, 70, 80 products continue to gain momentum out in the marketplace. So certainly, we see a path for our margins being well into the low 50s sometime during the year. Okay. I mean, if I just do a little bit of math there, it should almost be conceivable that you could exit the year with something in the mid-50s. Is that just unrealistic? We'll just have to wait and see. We've got a lot second half of the year has got a lot of unknowns on at this point particularly in some of our new businesses. So we certainly like to think that we'll have a very nice back end of the year and that will contribute to margin up, but that will just have to wait. Your next I wonder could you tell me more about what went into that decision process? Is it time to market or is it even your customers request? I guess just wanted to understand that a little more. Well, first of all, 28 nanometer is not available this year, not until very end of the year. And I think with us going for us to go for us to ship production out in Q3, we have to start wafers in early Q2, right? And so, 28 nanometer is not an option. Secondarily, 40 nanometers is now in the 3rd year of its production and the yields are fabulous. And so that's a wonderful reason to do it. And so I think on the one hand, 28 nanometer is available on the other hand, 40 nanometer is giving fabulose. So I think it's just a naturally the right answer. But going forward, the way to think about it is the general rhythm that you'll see in the industry for companies that come up with new processors every year, you should expect to see 2 that have have used different ways of explaining their rhythm. And some use one process node change, one is an architecture change, the next one is a process node change. So basically, it's every other year for a new process node. And I think that rhythm is not a bad move. I mean, that's basically how quickly the reason that TEGRA2 and TEGRA NEXT for Cal L would use the same process and then the following ones would be 29 year deal. Your next question is from the line of Shawn Webster. A couple of questions. On TEGRA, is there a breakeven run rate that you guys need for you to be breaking even on an operating margin basis now? The answer is it's hard to predict. And the reason for that is this, more and more of our company is involved in the TEGRA roadmap. So as quickly as that TEGRA is growing more of our company's overall R and D is driving into the Tegra road map. And it's because it's great for mobile devices, smartphones, tablets and because of Microsoft's announcement with Windows Next running on ARM, all of a sudden, Cheggura has the ability to the opportunity to take future generation Tegra Processors directly into the notebook market is really exciting to me. And it's also a way for the PC industry to really be revolutionized, if you will, with industrial designs that are exquisite in battery life and usage models that are very, very different than today's notebook. I mean, I think it's pretty clear at this point that in the future Windows notebooks will make today's notebooks look a little bit like refrigerators. And it's I think that we have the ability to completely revolutionize how people see notebook computers again, and I'm excited about that. And so how much of our engineering should really go into Tegra? And related, Denver plus Tesla, the answer is a lot. And so the breakeven point could eventually become all of NVIDIA. Okay. And switching gears, I love the Superman analogy for Carlyle, by the way. But on your core GPU and chipset business, what is the size of the chipset business for you guys today, just to get a sense of the trajectory where we're sitting now and as we evolve the next couple of quarters? And then also, can you share with us what your GPU units did sequentially for Q4? So on the MCP business, Sean, I think we've talked previously about that business roughly running its course for the most part through the first half of this fiscal year fiscal 'twelve. And then in the second half of the year, it should be a pretty minor piece of our business. We've not really broken it out beyond that other than to say at least at this point we know that TEGRA will exceed it in Q1. And as far as units are concerned, our units were up in the 4th quarter, primarily on the strength of our mainstream business, but more importantly, the revenue per unit on the ASP as someone asked earlier, was driven primarily by our mix changes. And we're happy to see that drives a lot of earnings potential for the company and opportunity for the company. And we don't right now see that changing materially going forward. Your next question is from the line of James Snyder. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Related to TEGR2, in Q1, could you share with us what you think your ASPs are today in that product and where do you think they'll be as we exit the year, do you think they'll be down or maybe even up given the mix of Kal El? Let me just you some directional input. Our ASPs for tablets because the package is larger and the BIN tends to be a little higher, our tablet margins or ASPs are higher than that of smartphones. Smartphones are also designed into depending on which tier of the customers we engage with, extremely high volume engagements or moderate volume engagements, those ASPs tend to be lower than tablets. And Cal Al, as the world's 1st supply core, is we command a premium when the product comes out. And so those are kind of the directional levels. We haven't broken that much further than that. Okay. And maybe as a follow-up, could you address your notebook GPU share as we head through this year? I mean, clearly you're gaining share on the San Dimitry platforms. Do you think that it kind of steps up in Q1 and Q2 and then kind of plateaus as we head throughout the back half of the year? Or do you think that's more of a gradual continuing up throughout the year? Most of that depends on how quickly Intel is going to transition Sanyo Bridge relative to Huron River, I think, was the last five point. If Intel gets aggressive with Sandy River, of course, our share on Sandy River is much, much higher than that of Huron River. As you recall, our market we lost market share on Huron River and with the first Fermi generation. But the GTX 5, the GTX the world today. And so, the more aggressively Intel transitions from Sandy River to Human River, the more quickly we will gain share. So, partly it depends on them. Your next question is from the line of Arnab Chandra. Arnab, your line is open. We'll take the next call, operator. Your next question is from the line of Glenn Young. I think somebody quoted a Gartner number for tablets in 2014. When you think about a number that big, what do you think is a realistic target for market share in that business? Well, who knows? 2014 is a long time from now. I think the there's a couple of things that we believe in. We believe that computers are going to become thinner and thinner and easier and easier to to become an increasing important part of computing. And so it stands to reason that tablets or notebooks that can become tablets or way people are thinking about it, I think about it as just personal computers. This is way people are thinking about it, I think about it as just personal computers. This is the new personal computer. And there are just different form factors. There are smaller versions of tablets, we call them smartphones or superphones. There are larger versions of tablets, we call them notebooks. There are even super large versions of tablets, if you will, all in one PC. And so I think that you're going to find the industrial design of personal computers has become disruptive, if you will, as a result of mobile computing components being used, mobile computing processors being used. And so I think that the stands to them will become fuzzy over time. And it stands to reason that at this point, I think we all believe it's a very large market. Now to be successful within that large market, ISA has The ARM ISA has now become the de facto standard of this segment of the market and it's become very disruptive. It is the only ISA now that can support all of the major operating systems necessary for the mobile computing space from Ios to QNX to Android to now next generation Windows. So it's clear that you need to have ARM. And then after that, you need to have expertise in building computers, whether an SoC is basically a computer on a chip. And when you are a provider of a computer on a chip and there are this many operating systems to support, you better have deep, deep expertise and not to mention capacity of system software expertise building sophisticated computers like this. And so I think that's at the very high level, it's really exactly how we think about our strategy. This is a very large market. It is disruptive. It is disrupting the computer industry as we see it and know it right now. And this is an area where we believe we can add a great deal of make a great contribution and drive our growth. And so aside from that, it's hard to predict exactly whether Gartner is going to be right or not. My guess is based on where the analyst predictions have been going lately. It seems like every month they've been raising their estimates. And so we don't know where it stops. And your final question is from the line of Craig of Boerger. Hey guys, nice job and thanks for taking my question. Thanks a lot, Craig. On the GPU business, A, is there an impact in the April quarter from the Intel Sandy Bridge delay or meaning is there is production being held up? And then B, where is your notebook market share now? Where do you expect it to go? And then as part of that, do you think Sandy Bridge is going to take any overall GPU share? Number 1, we have not experienced a disruption so far on and people are still running as hard as they can. They paused, but I think Intel is doing quite a good job on helping everyone recover. With respect to share, I think our share is about 40% today. My guess is that when it's all said and done, our share should be north of 16%. And then with respect to a cash rate, the PC industry still has basically 2 tiers, the basic PC and the premium PC. If every PC uses basic Intel integrated graphics, then everything would be the same and everything would become a VCR. But obviously no consumer would like that, because they still believe that there's an opportunity to buy a better PC and one that has higher performance or higher resolution or just more interactivity or the fact that our GPU is just far, far, far more compatible with games, so in all the multimedia applications. So it depends on how you want to what you use it for. If you're a person looking for a basic PC, then integrated graphics makes sense for you and you're looking for a premium PC, and buy something a little bit better with the money you have, adding a GPU to it is really a fabulous thing. And so that basic dynamic hasn't really changed with the introduction of Sandy Bridge. So I'm not expecting much GPU attach differences. Thanks. One quick follow-up. You guys said you did about $100,000,000 of Tesla this year. Do you care to throw out a number that we should dial into our models for 2011? It's hard to say, but we should grow very nicely this year. We'll give you more guidance as we get closer to it. To it. And no further questions at this time. Do you have any closing remarks? Thank you, everyone. We look forward to talking about our Q1 results. And that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.