Good day, welcome to the Realty Income Fourth Quarter 2015 Operating Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Janeen Bedard. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, thank you all for joining us today for Realty Income's Fourth Quarter 2015 operating results conference call. Discussing our results will be John Case, Chief Executive Officer; Paul Meurer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; and Sumit Roy, President and Chief Operating Officer. During this conference call, we will make certain statements that may be considered to be forward-looking statements under the federal securities law. The company's actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in any forward-looking statements. We will disclose in greater detail the factors that may cause such differences in the company's Form 10-K. We will be observing a two-question limit during the question and answer portion of the call in order to give everyone the opportunity to participate. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, John Case.
Thanks, Janine, welcome to our call today. We had a solid Fourth Quarter, which concluded an excellent year for our company as annualized rental revenue exceeded one billion dollars for the first time in our history. AFFO per share during the Fourth Quarter increased 4.6% to $0.68, 2015 AFFO per share increased 6.6% to $2.74. As announced in yesterday's press release, we are reiterating our AFFO per share guidance for 2016 of $2.85-$2.90, which we anticipate another attractive year of earnings growth. Let me hand it over to Paul to provide additional details on our financial results. Paul?
Thanks, John. I'm going to provide a few highlights of just a few items in our financial results for the quarter, starting with the income statement. Interest expense decreased in the quarter by $7.1 million to $52 million. This decrease was driven by less overall debt in our balance sheet. We repaid $150 million of bonds and almost $200 million in mortgages last year. The decrease was also partially due to the inclusion of preferred dividends that were treated as interest expense in the Fourth Quarter of last year when we redeemed our Series E preferred equity shares in October of 2014. Another larger impact was from the recognition of a non-cash gain of approximately $4.1 million on interest rate swaps during the quarter, which caused a decrease in net liability and lowered our interest expense.
As a reminder, these mark-to-market adjustments on our floating-to-fixed interest rate swaps will tend to cause volatility in our reported interest expense and FFO on a quarterly basis, particularly when there is significant movement in short-term forward curve rates, as we saw at the end of the fourth quarter. We do adjust for this non-cash gain when computing our cash AFFO earnings. On a related note, our coverage ratios both remain strong, with interest coverage of 4.5 times and fixed charge coverage at 4.0 times. Our fixed charge coverage is the highest it has been in well over 10 years. Our G&A in 2015 as a percentage of total rental and other revenues was only 5%. We estimate this will remain our approximate run rate for G&A in 2016 as well. Our non-reimbursable property expenses in 2015 as a percentage of total rental and other revenues was only 1.4%.
These expenses came in lower this year due to lower portfolio vacancy, faster re-leasing of vacant properties, lower property insurance premiums, and fewer re-tenanting expenses. We estimate our run rate for property expenses in 2016 to be approximately 1.5%. Briefly turning to the balance sheet, we've continued to maintain our conservative capital structure. In September, we established an ATM or at-the-market equity distribution program. In Q4, we utilized this program to issue approximately 714,000 shares, generating net proceeds of $35.8 million. In October, we raised $517 million in net proceeds in a common stock offering. We used the proceeds at that time to pay down all outstanding borrowings on our unsecured revolving credit facility. This $2 billion credit facility today has a current balance of $370 million. Other than our current facility, the only variable rate debt exposure we have is on just $15.5 million of mortgage debt.
Our overall debt maturity schedule remains in very good shape, with only $170 million in mortgages and $275 million in bonds coming due in 2016, and our maturity schedule is well-laddered thereafter. Finally, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at approximately 5.1 times, and is only 5.5 times inclusive of preferred equity. Now let me turn the call back over to John to give you more background on these results.
Thanks, Paul, let me begin with an overview of the portfolio, which continues to perform well. Our occupancy based on the number of properties was 98.4%, 10 basis points higher than last quarter and unchanged from a year ago, despite having managed our most active year ever for lease expirations. Additionally, economic occupancy remains strong at 99.2%. During the year, we re-leased 353 properties with leases expiring, recapturing 101% of expiring rent. As is typical for us, we achieved this without any spending on tenant improvements. At the end of the year, we had 71 properties available for lease out of 4,538 properties in the portfolio. Over the last 20 years, we have re-leased or sold more than 2,000 properties with expired leases, recapturing approximately 98% of rents on those properties that were re-leased. Our same-store rent increased 1.3% during the quarter, and also for the year.
We expect annual same-store rent growth to remain approximately 1.3% in 2016. 90% of our leases have contractual rent increases. Approximately 75% of our investment-grade leases have rental rate growth that averages about 1.3%. Additionally, we have never had a year with negative same-store rent growth since we started reporting this metric 20 years ago. Our portfolio continues to be diversified by tenant, industry, geography, and to a certain extent, property type, all of which contributes to the stability of our cash flow. At the end of the year, our properties were leased to 240 commercial tenants in 47 different industries, located in 49 states and Puerto Rico. 79% of our rental revenue is from our traditional retail properties. The largest component outside of retail is industrial properties at about 13% of rental revenue.
There was not much movement in the composition of our top tenants and industries during the fourth quarter. Walgreens remains our largest tenant at 6.9% of rental revenue, and drugstores remain our largest industry at 10.9% of rental revenue. We continue to have excellent credit quality in the portfolio, with 44% of our rental revenue generated from investment-grade-rated tenants. This percentage will continue to fluctuate and should be positively impacted in 2016 by Walgreens' pending acquisition of Rite Aid, which represents 2% of our annualized rental revenue. The store-level performance of our retail tenants remains sound. Our weighted average rent coverage ratio for the retail properties continues to be 2.6 times on a full-year basis, and the median is also 2.6 times. Moving on to acquisitions. During the quarter, we completed $204 million in acquisitions, and we continue to see a high volume of sourced acquisition opportunities.
In 2015, we sourced approximately $32 billion in acquisition opportunities, which is our second-most active year ever for sourced volume. We remain disciplined in our investment strategy, declining just 4% or nearly $1.3 billion in the amount sourced, and continue to see a strong flow of opportunities in our target property types. We continue to expect to complete approximately $750 million in acquisitions for 2016. As always, this principally reflects our typical flow business and does not account for any large-scale transactions. Let me hand it over to Sumit to discuss our acquisitions and dispositions. Sumit?
Thank you, John. During the fourth quarter of 2015, we invested $204 million in 104 properties located in 26 states at an average initial cash cap rate of 7.1%, and with a weighted average lease term of 15.7 years. On a revenue basis, 28% of total acquisitions are from investment-grade tenants, 89% of the revenues are generated from retail, and 11% are from industrial. These assets are leased to 23 different tenants in 17 industries. We closed 14 independent transactions in the fourth quarter, and the average investment per property was approximately $2 million. During 2015, we invested $1.26 billion in 286 properties located in 40 states at an average initial cash cap rate of 6.6%, and with a weighted average lease term of 16.5 years. On a revenue basis, 46% of total acquisitions are from investment-grade tenants.
87% of the revenues are generated from retail, and 13% are from industrial. These assets are leased to 45 different tenants in 21 industries. Of the 49 independent transactions closed during 2015, 3 transactions were above $50 million. Transaction flow continues to remain healthy. We sourced more than $7 billion in the fourth quarter. During 2015, we have sourced nearly $32 billion in potential transaction opportunities. Of these opportunities, 60% of the volume sourced were portfolios, and 40%, or approximately $13 billion, were one-off assets. As to pricing, cap rates remained flat in the fourth quarter, with investment-grade properties trading from around 5% to high 6% cap rate range, and non-investment-grade properties trading from high 5% to low 8% cap rate range. Our disposition program remains active.
During the quarter, we sold 16 properties for $13.9 million at a net cash cap rate of 8.1% and realized an unlevered IRR of 10.2%. This brings us to 38 properties sold in 2015 for $65.4 million at a net cash cap rate of 7.6% and realized an unlevered IRR of 12.1%. Our investment spreads relative to our weighted average cost of capital were healthy, averaging 236 basis points in the fourth quarter, which were above our historical average spreads. For the year, spreads were 182 basis points.
In conclusion, given the continued activity in our space, we remain confident in reaching our 2016 acquisition target of approximately $750 million, and disposition value between $15 million and $75 million. With that, I would like to hand it back to John.
Thanks, Sumit. We had a very active year on the capital markets front to meet our funding needs. In 2015, we raised approximately $1.2 billion in equity capital, positioning us well as we entered 2016. We are now at the lowest leverage levels we've been at in 10 years, with debt to total market cap at approximately 25%. Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape with plenty of liquidity and financial flexibility. Our sector-leading cost of capital continues to allow us to drive strong earnings and dividend growth while remaining disciplined with our investment strategy. Last month, we announced our 84th dividend increase, representing a 5% increase from this time last year. We have increased our dividend every year since the company's listing in 1994, growing the dividend at a compound average annual rate of just under 5%.
Our AFFO payout ratio in 2015 was 82.9%, which is a level we were quite comfortable with. To wrap it up, we had a great year and remain optimistic for 2016. Our portfolio is performing well, and we continue to see a healthy volume of acquisition opportunities. We remain well-positioned to act on high-quality acquisitions given our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity, and cost of capital advantage. At this time, I'd like to open it up for questions. Operator?
If you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing *1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is disengaged to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We do ask that you limit yourself to two questions at a time. Again, press *1 to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to assemble the queue. We'll go first to Juan Sanabria of Bank of America.
Hi. Thanks for the time, guys. On the acquisition front, could you just comment about how you're feeling about opportunities maybe versus three or six months ago? Are you looking at more portfolio deals, given it seems like some of the premiums have gone away? Any possibilities to partner with third parties to take down larger deals?
Sure, Juan. First of all, as we look forward on the acquisitions front, we're still seeing a good, steady flow of opportunities. We're still confident in our $750 million acquisitions guidance for this year. That doesn't include any large-scale portfolios or entity-level type transactions. We're constantly scouring the market for opportunities and considering opportunities on a large scale. As far as working with third parties, it's something we would consider. We haven't done that before. If there were a transaction where perhaps there was a large portfolio where part of the real estate made a lot of sense for us and part of it didn't, we would certainly consider partnering with someone who wanted the portion of the real estate that was not consistent with our investment philosophy.
Thanks. Just on your cost to capital front, have you guys thought about taking advantage of where your share price is today and hitting the market now ahead of any potential bigger deal flow that may be coming the way in 2016? How do you think about that?
Yeah. Well, we're constantly monitoring all of the capital markets, equity, debt, preferred. Right now we only have about $350 million outstanding on our lines, so we've got capacity of about $1.7 billion. There's no need to access the markets unless they were particularly appealing or we had an immediate use for the proceeds. We're paying attention to what's happening out there and looking at it. Right now, we're comfortable where we are as we speak today.
We'll go next to Nick Joseph at Citi.
Thanks. I guess sticking with acquisitions, what are you seeing in terms of pricing of portfolios compared to individual assets?
Individual assets are now priced a bit more aggressively than the portfolios, which is a flip of where we were a couple of years ago. We ended up looking at one-off acquisitions are probably trading at cap rates of 20 to as much as 50 basis points inside of where mid-size portfolios of comparable properties are trading. There is a little bit of an arb there.
Hey, John, it's Michael Bilerman. Just as you think about the other side of using your currency instead of just issuing new equity and raising that capital, you certainly can use that equity in any sort of M&A. I'm just curious how, you're a former banker, are you trying to shake the tree loose out of any of your competitors just given how high your stock trades and where your multiple is in trying to drive some of that in a public M&A and leveraging your currency in that fashion?
We actually are constantly looking at entity-level opportunities, and given the multiple advantage we have relative to the sector today, it makes sense for us to consider those opportunities. To transact, you've got to have a willing, logical seller and a willing, logical buyer. We'll see what may or may not happen on that front, but it's certainly something that we're considering.
We'll go next to Vikram Malhotra of Morgan Stanley.
Thanks. Just following up on the M&A question, just trying to understand, obviously, you have the cost of capital. If you were to just prioritize, what do you do with this cost of capital from here? If you look past at least historically, you've traded obviously at premiums to the broader REIT group, but that premium has not remained there for a considerable amount of time. It seems like there's a window, and I'm just trying to understand, if you were to prioritize what you do with it, if you could walk us through, that'd be helpful.
Yeah. We have typically traded at a premium to the sector. The premium widens during periods of market volatility and uncertainty like we're seeing today. For the vast majority of our history, we've traded at the highest multiple in the sector. As we look at what we may do with the capital advantages from a cost perspective that we have today, we want to stay consistent with our investment strategies. On the retail front, it's looking for service-oriented, non-discretionary, low price point businesses that have good real estate and rents that make sense, structures that make sense. On the industrial side, it's high-quality real estate leased to Fortune 1000 companies with investment-grade credit ratings.
Those are the buckets we're really focused on. What we don't want to do is go out and untimely use a lot of capital to buy properties that aren't consistent with the assets that have worked for the company over the long term. We don't feel pressured to buy inferior assets at times where our multiple advantage is very significant.
Okay. If you were to say, hypothetically, if there were two portfolios of a public portfolio or a public company and a larger private portfolio, somewhat similar return profiles, similar properties, how do you think about those two? Are there factors that draw you towards one or the other at this point? Would you be considering either of them, even if your leverage ticks up? They're not leverage neutral.
We look to do transactions on a leverage-neutral basis, That's what we've done in the vast past, whether it be on the private side or the entity-level side. Really what's going to drive which opportunities we pursue is going to be the opportunities that result in the most value for the shareholders of our company. That's how we're going to look at it. We have shown in the past that we can execute public transactions, entity-level transactions, or large portfolio transactions. We do have some leverage capacity today. As you heard, we're at our lowest leverage levels in the last 10 years, We have taken advantage of the capital markets to really strengthen and solidify the balance sheet. We're very well positioned to grow today, where we could take on a bit more leverage than we have today.
Our long-term target has been two-thirds equity, one-third debt. As you know, we're inside of that today.
We'll go next to RJ Milligan of Baird.
Hey, good afternoon, guys. John, to those comments, obviously attractive cost of equity here, How do you think, or Paul, how do you think about your cost of debt here? How has it changed over the past couple of months? Do you have any visibility as to where you could issue long-term debt today?
This is John. Ten-year debt is in the low fours, 410, 420. Spreads have gapped out as rates have declined, so there hasn't been a big pickup there. Paul, anything on-
Yeah. The bandwidth all in has really stayed in the 4% to 4.2% range in spite of wherever the Treasury or spreads have moved.
Okay. In terms of acquisitions this year, has the spread between investment-grade and below investment-grade shifted at all given the macro volatility? Would you say that it's still, on a risk-adjusted basis, more attractive to be going after the investment-grade tenants?
Well, we're going to continue. The spreads really haven't changed the relationship of those spreads. We'll pursue opportunities in both sectors, the ones that meet our investment parameters and make the most sense for us. On the investment grade side, you're seeing some fairly aggressive pricing, as Sumit alluded to earlier. You have around the 5% area on the really higher quality product. In the non-investment grade, you're still seeing right around 6% on the higher quality product. That's not much different than where we were at the end of last year. cap rates have remained stable. The ranges on investment grade go up to as high as the high sixes, and on non-investment grade, they go up to as high as 8%. The spreads are better today from an investment standpoint, given our cost of capital.
For the year last year, we had investment spreads of 182 basis points on about the $1.3 billion that we acquired. In the fourth quarter, that was more like 236 basis points on the $204 million we acquired. Today, they're running in excess of 250 basis points. The margins have never been better than they are now on the acquisitions front. We'll be more driven by the opportunities in both the non-investment grade and investment grade sectors. We'll react to those versus having sort of a fixed percentage of what we want to buy in each. That's consistent with how we've always done it.
We'll go next to Sameet Khanna of Capital One Securities.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Just for those tenants that provide unit-level financials, is there anything in those results that suggest a change in economic activity, or are there geographies that are doing better than others or anything like that?
No, we are constantly looking at that. The tenant base is in excellent shape. There's some non-material issues, as there always are, that are factored into our guidance. Right now we feel good about the tenant base and their health and condition.
Sure. As it pertains to acquisitions, are there any industries that you're looking to invest in or not invest in? Has there been any change in sort of the buyer or seller pools?
No significant changes on the buyer-seller pool, the industries are consistent with the ones that we're in. If you look at the 47 industries we're in today, with very few exceptions, they're going to lie within those industries. We want to stay away from discretionary industries and businesses.
We'll go next to Rob Stevenson of Janney.
Good afternoon, guys. Looks like in the fourth quarter, according to the supplemental that you guys bought 10 Rite Aids. Are those basically straight down the middle sort of normal 10-year plus leases, or have you guys started to look more opportunistically at some of the Rite Aid locations or even Walgreens locations that has five years or less in it to possibly do a re-tenanting?
That was a sale-leaseback transaction we did directly with Rite Aid, who is an existing tenant of ours, and it was done before the Walgreens announcement. It worked out very well for us. Those weren't one-off transactions. It was just a fortuitous timing, I would say, in terms of when the transaction was executed.
Okay. Is there the capability to do anything on an opportunistic basis with short-term lease Rite Aids or even Walgreens where the current owner might be across the street from something else from one of the other locations, might getting worried that they're going to close down the location where you guys can buy it at an attractive rate and repurpose it to some other tenant? If that's lined up.
That's not a big emphasis of our business. We pay attention to those opportunities, we're really looking for assets with long lease terms that are well-positioned competitively and we're not going to have any sort of near-term issues for. If we saw something incredibly compelling, we would certainly take a look at it, where if we had a kind of tenant in our back pocket and we knew we were going to sign a 20-year lease on favorable terms on a building that was going to become vacant, we'd certainly look at that, and we've done that in the past. It's not a major component of our business, we have done that in the past.
We'll go next to Ross Nussbaum of UBS.
Hey, John. Good afternoon.
Hey, Ross.
It sounds like from some of your earlier comments regarding acquisitions and in particular M&A. It sounds like you are more open to M&A today than you have been in the recent past. Do you think that's a fair characterization?
I would say, given the multiple advantage we have relative to the other 13, 14 companies in the sector, that it's a bit more interesting today. At the same time, I would say that we want to end up with assets that are consistent with our investment philosophy. We're not signaling that we'd go out there and just to do a large transaction, take on assets that we'd consider to be of risk in the intermediate to long term.
You and I have talked about this topic before, but how do you think about net asset value, or property value versus investment spread? Even if you theoretically could buy another public player at a multiple that would be accretive to your FFO, what if that meant paying a reasonably high, I don't know what the right word is, premium to the actual value of the assets when you know you can go into the private market all day long and pay actual NAV or property value? How do you balance that thinking?
Well, we want to be paying NAV, whether we're buying in the private market or whether we're buying in the public market. There would have to be something incredibly compelling about the opportunity strategically, for us to do that. We're focused both on spreads and accretion as well as the value of the assets. We would not want to do anything that would be NAV dilutive.
We'll go next to Amit Meyyani of Oppenheimer.
Hi, good afternoon. Can you guys comment on the difference in cap rates for industrial versus retail?
Yeah. Amit, industrial versus retail?
Yeah.
Great.
We haven't really seen much of a movement in cap rates for the type of industrial assets that we pursue, which is Fortune 1000 clients with 10+ years. In terms of the cost, we are paying right around that $65 to $75 to $80 per sq ft for brand new, concrete tilt-up type of buildings. That seems to still be the case today. With retail, as you know, depending on the product type, it ranges from anywhere between 200, 150 to 200 sq ft, all the way up to 400, 450 for a C store. Again, with regards to pricing, despite all the volatility that we are seeing in the market, we have not seen cap rates move in one direction or the other. They've stayed fairly steady for both those products in, I'd say, over the last six to nine months.
Got it. Just bigger picture, any changes to the watch list or anything else we should be aware of on that front?
No. Watch list is down to 1% of revenues, which is the lowest it's been in the last five years. Again, the portfolio is in good health and there are no material issues for us.
We'll go next to Tyler Grant of Green Street Advisors.
Hello, guys. Just a quick question from me. What do you see as being the right size for Realty Income in terms of assets?
The right size in terms of assets?
Yeah.
I don't think there is necessarily a right size, but we will continue to grow the company consistent with our investment strategies and take advantage of the opportunities out there in what is a vast marketplace. We do not have a target, in terms of size. It's really more about delivering earnings growth and dividend growth and total shareholder return.
All right, sure. In terms of, do you think that there would be anything more attractive about having $25 billion worth of assets instead of having, let's call it, $18 billion worth of assets?
No. I don't think so. This is a very scalable business. When you look at our EBITDA margin at nearly 94%, it's sector-leading. We're delivering more of our revenues to our shareholders than the rest of the sector. Our G&A margin of 5%, very efficient. With size and scale comes increased efficiencies, which really lead to, I think, a competitive advantage based on size. We wouldn't grow just to grow. We would grow to create earnings growth and dividend growth with assets consistent with our investment philosophy.
We'll go next to Todd Stender of Wells Fargo.
Hi, thanks. The deal flow you're seeing continues to be pretty steady and robust. Can you provide what the mix is? Maybe just share what the percentage is if you look at it, where the investment opportunities came from from last year, whether they're marketed deals, existing relationships, or pension funds even bringing you opportunities.
Sure. Sumit, you want to take that?
Yeah, sure. Todd, in terms of the portfolio and one-off mix, I would say it's about 25% of what we sourced last year versus even in 2015 was about the same. 25% is one-off, 75% portfolio deals. When you start to focus then on the portfolio deals, what we've started to notice is a lot more companies that were sort of hesitant in years past to even engage in conversations dealing with sale-leasebacks, became far more open to those types of conversations. In fact, some of them even resulted in transactions that we were involved in in last year.
Whereas in 2014, most of the product that we saw were from companies that were very familiar with the sale-leaseback market, and most of the volume driven were by either other sellers of large portfolios, both private and public, and/or companies that had done sale-leasebacks in the past. The only real change in terms of the product mix, I would say that we saw was new entrants coming in that had not engaged in conversations in years past. Outside of that, one-off versus portfolio, the mix was about the same. It was 26% in 2014 and 25% in 2015. I'd say the mix was about the same.
Is it more compelling, Sumit, just because of pricing? Commercial real estate prices have been so good, people are at least considering it now.
I would say pricing is definitely one piece of it. I would also say that there has been put a fair amount of external pressures by investors, et cetera, rattling the cages and talking about, what is it that a particular operating company should focus on. The debt markets have helped. The fact that our cap rates have compressed have helped. I think the single biggest driver in my mind has been some of the investors talking about monetizing real estate and getting back to the core business. I think that has been the single biggest factor.
We'll go next to Richard Moore of RBC Capital Markets.
Hi, good afternoon guys.
Hi, Rich.
Sumit, are you sort of saying that, and John, remember we had all these retailers that wanted to do spins of their real estate, and that's sort of not happening now. The government's kind of shut that down. Is that group of potential sale-leaseback guys coming too? Are you seeing more of that, those pre-spin guys that can't do the spins anymore?
Yeah, I think that was actually favorable news to the net lease industry and companies like ours. To the extent they want to monetize their real estate, they're going to be talking to us. I do think, to add on to what Sumit was saying, is that these companies that have large real estate holdings that are not real estate companies are under pressure to increase their own returns on investment. Carrying that real estate when it could be sold to someone like us or someone in our sector could certainly enhance their return on investment. There is that pressure, and we're seeing that. The recent news with regard to the ability to do these spins is certainly a net positive to the sector.
Okay, good. Thank you. It's interesting because you guys probably don't sit and look at the stock market all day long like a bunch of us on the phone do, but pretty much the only thing green on my screen is you guys. That means the market's worried about something. I'm curious how you guys monitor for bankruptcies. I mean, what's the chance among your tenant base? What's the chance that you could have a surprise in there? How close are you in touch, do you think, with the health of each of these retailers?
Yeah. We have a, as you know, you've covered us for a long time. As you know, Rich, we have our own internal credit and research team, and we are constantly analyzing and scouring the portfolio in terms of credit and industry trends as well. Currently, our watch list is 1%. Tenants that we have potential credit issues with are just under 6% of the entire portfolio. Most of that doesn't make it onto the watch list because it's really good real estate, and we'd like to have it back, and we think there's upside there. In terms of our coverages, they've held steady right around 2.6, 2.7, and we're not anticipating any sort of material tenant issues. We do track that very closely and don't see anything there.
We'll go next to Dan Donlon of Ladenburg Thalmann.
Thank you. Good afternoon. John, given your comments on M&A, you said that public-to-public, that the REITs would have to have assets that are consistent with your investment philosophy. How many REITs out there do you think have such assets? It cut out.
Yeah. Dan, you're cutting out.
Oh, sorry. Can you hear me now better?
Yes.
Sorry about that. Given that you said that as you look at some public-to-public M&A, that another company would have to have assets that are consistent with your investment philosophy. Was just kind of curious how many REITs are out there that you think have assets that are consistent with your investment philosophy?
There are a number of them. Are there any that are completely pure? Maybe one or two. In terms of REITs that have assets that are consistent with what we're looking for and have a material amount of them, maybe they represent 50% or more, there are a lot of companies out there.
Okay. Helpful. Just kind of curious on the casual dining front, it's been a sector that you guys have steered clear of since the last recession. Was just kind of curious your appetite there. Just going back to Rich's question, given the inability of these REIT conversions to happen, there's a lot of restaurants out there that still own a lot of their own real estate. Just kind of curious your thoughts there.
Yeah. Right now, casual dining for us is about 3.5% of our overall revenues. Some of the stumbles the company has made in the past have been related to casual dining. We've learned what we want on that front. We have a fairly high bar in terms of what we would consider there. We want operating concepts that are stable to growing. We want box sizes that are, if we ever get them back, are of the size that they can be more easily relet. We want market rents. We want something close to replacement cost as well. We want coverages that are in excess of what our portfolio average is, somewhere around three times. If we find those types of opportunities, and of course, the real estate needs to be attractive as well, we'll pursue them.
The fact that we've not done many of them is more a function of the quality and structure of some of the transactions that have been done versus us saying, "Hey, we won't look at casual dining," because we will look at casual dining. The parameters around what we will invest in are fairly tight.
We'll go next to Collin Mings of Raymond James.
Hey, good afternoon.
Hey, Collin.
First question for you. You guys mentioned the watch list remains low and hasn't really changed much, can you maybe just highlight what the themes are as you think about the planned dispositions for this year? Could we see some shift maybe towards the more occupied versus vacant properties? Just as it relates to that issue, going back to Rich's question, could some of the dispositions be maybe that pool of tenants that aren't necessarily on the watch list, but maybe in lower quality given some of the economic concerns out there?
Yeah. On the dispositions front, I think in terms of what we'll be selling, it'll look similar to what it looked like in 2015, maybe a bit more occupied than vacant. We have more vacant than we typically have. The types of properties on the dispositions front are casual dining, childcare, older generation, discretionary tenants in inferior real estate locations, perhaps with credit issues. They're higher-quality properties, but we're looking to reduce our exposure to a certain tenant or to a certain sector. On the sales front, I think you'll see a little more occupied than vacant in terms of the ratio. We're looking to sell $50 million to $75 million this year, and that's incorporated into our guidance.
Well, I guess along those lines, just as far as how does your economic outlook maybe factor into that at all there? I think last year there was some acceleration in kind of your disposition activity. Is there anything from just a broader economic perspective that might again cause you to accelerate or want to jettison some of that exposure that you highlight that you're relatively more concerned about?
Well, again, when you look at the size of the watch list, it's 1%, it's fairly small. Possibly, we've had, I think our most active year on the dispositions front was about $135 million, and we've been as low as $50 million, $60 million. We're kind of thinking $50 million to $75 million, but we remain the right to be flexible there. We certainly do factor in macroeconomic conditions, but it's really that then taken down to a micro level, does it make sense for the reasons I went through to sell an asset or not?
This concludes the question and answer portion of Realty Income's conference call. I will now turn the call over to John Case for concluding remarks.
Okay. Thank you very much, Cassandra. Thanks everyone for joining us, and we look forward to seeing you at the conferences coming up. Everyone have a good afternoon. Take care. Bye.
This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.