Good morning, and welcome to Olin Corporation's second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. Following today's brief opening comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press Star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.
Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that this discussion, along with the associated slides and the question and answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that actual results could differ materially from those projected.
Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's second quarter earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and other financial data and information are available under Press Releases. With me this morning are Scott Sutton, Olin's CEO, and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. Scott will begin with some brief remarks, after which we will be happy to take your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Scott Sutton.
Yeah. Thanks, Steve, and good morning to everybody. The Olin team did a great job delivering the highest quarterly EBITDA in our history and delivering the fourth quarter in a row where EBITDA was $700 million plus or minus, even though global economic conditions declined. We did what we said we would do. We ran our model of leadership and accelerated our reduction of Olin share count without adding debt to our investment-grade balance sheet. Still, many imagine us all the way down in the earnings and Free Cash Flow gutter in the imminent recession. I will solely focus my remarks on what Olin looks like in a recession and then on why Olin is a good investment in any event.
Let's go back and revisit the recession EBITDA and Free Cash Flow slide from our first quarter earnings call, shown here as slide number four. Starting on the left-hand side of the slide, from our $2.8 billion EBITDA 12-month run rate, it is certainly not impossible that the CAPV business experiences lower longer-term operating rate reductions as we focus on maintaining the value of our products through a recession. The associated % drop in CAPV EBITDA could be like what our Epoxy business is experiencing. The combination of the two business performance reductions results in a $1 billion EBITDA drop. The right-hand side of the slide seems to be more interesting to most Olin followers.
Starting from the 2020 EBITDA result of $636 million, the three line items that we don't expect to repeat in a recession under the new model are low chlorine pricing, selling cash- negative EDC, and Winchester operating in a significantly smaller demand structure. All three line items seem to be well accepted. The fourth upside line item, called Other Structural Change, needs some clarification, though. Included in that upside line item are the materialized fixed cost reductions for the closure of 865,000 ECU tons of chlor-alkali production, an updated epichlorohydrin positioning, maintaining part of the improved epoxy pricing under our new model of value, an improved VCM contract arrangement, and gains from multiple alliances. In this recession scenario, Olin still generates $7 per share or more of levered Free Cash Flow.
In fact, we welcome the opportunity to further reduce our share count right through the middle of a recession. Obviously, we're bullish on Olin. Slide number five shows why. We're the leader in every one of our businesses, and we run a model that looks around corners so we can position for the future today. Said differently, we take difficult actions early in the cycle. Part of that positioning is to temporarily reduce participation in markets with poor future quality indicators.
Our curtailments in Epoxy and associated upstreams at Freeport in Brazil, as well as in EDC at Freeport, continue today. Both Epoxy and EDC represent weakness on the chlorine side of the ECU. Accordingly, we match our market participation to the weak side of the ECU. This is a fundamental change to our positioning from prior periods.
Additionally, we expect to curtail Epoxy and associated upstreams again in Stade, Germany, late in the third quarter, in part due to the European energy situation. Our complete company strategy change from heavy volume to nimble value, along with the currently understated equity valuation, positions us to buy up to 20% of our outstanding shares in a year, even in a weak economic cycle. Our new $2 billion share repurchase program reflects our board's confidence in Olin's future earnings and cash flow generation. With our solid balance sheet and strong cash flow, the company is well-positioned to execute on this attractive opportunity to invest in Olin. That concludes my opening remarks. Andrew, we're now ready to take questions.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch tone phone. If you are using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global Advisors. Please go ahead.
Morning, Scott.
Morning.
You know, very helpful slides, obviously, you know, particularly, you know, you guys brought it up in Q1 and again in Q2 on the recession side of things. Look, as I take a look at your Q3 guidance and what's implied for Q4, you know, the Q4 sort of implied guidance range seems to be an EBITDA of, you know, $420 million-$620 million, right?
If I take the lower end of that guidance range for Q4 again, $420 million, I annualize that's, you know, slightly north of $1.6 billion, which kind of falls on the lower end of your trough guidance range of $1.5 billion-$2 billion. My question really is: What are you guys seeing in your order books, to, I guess, imply that sort of guidance for Q4? I mean, are you seeing some sort of imminent recession, or is that you guys being conservative as it pertains to the last quarter of the year?
Yeah. I mean, thanks, Hassan. Yeah, I mean, look, Q4 is a bit different than some of the other quarters. We traditionally, you know, face some slowdowns, and then we do some purposeful things like really close down Winchester for a couple weeks at the end of the year. Naturally, Q4 is really one of our lower quarters.
I will just say that I know, you know, maybe the essence of that question is trying to get to 2023 and the outlook there. I'll just say, you know, we're taking a cautionary approach there, and we are basing our outlook and our plans on some sort of a recession that seems to be materializing. You know, we're seeing some weaker demand, particularly in the vinyls chain and continuing in epoxy.
Very helpful, Scott. As a follow-up, you know, could you just give us an update on the progress of some of the growth vectors that you guys identified earlier? You know, in particular, you know, on the sort of PVC joint venture side of things. You know, companies like Orbia have come out, talked about potentially sort of considering sort of joint venturing in the PVC domain. Any updates on that would be helpful.
Yeah, sure. I mean, I would say the one that is furthest along and we're moving into the phase of regulatory approval, you know, is our Blue Water joint venture with Mitsui, where we become, you know, basically the largest manager of liquidity in the world. We need another six months or so probably to get that operational. In terms of the vinyls venture, you know, we continue to work on that, Hassan, and we're making progress. You know, we probably need a couple quarters before, you know, we get to something that we can announce there.
Very helpful, Scott. Thank you so much.
Sure.
The next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Can you talk about the state of the epoxy market and what your epoxy volumes were like in the second quarter relative to the first?
Yeah. Hey, Jeff. Yeah. I mean, in epoxy, our volumes in the second quarter actually declined from the first quarter. In fact, you know, we ran the lowest volume quarter in the history of the business. You know, the big driver there, Jeff, is China. I mean, China is at least 50% of the world's consumption of epoxy. Consumption has declined much more than supply declined.
Essentially, China has flipped its trade flows. It has effectively become a net exporter of epoxy and epichlorohydrin, and a lot of that material is moving into Asia. Consequently, all of that material that is already produced in other parts of Asia is moving into Europe, North America. Now, we all know this is a temporary situation, but it is incredibly dramatic.
Effectively, we're running that business, you can think of it at 50% sort of asset utilization. You know, we're taking those difficult choices and making those asset and market moves to make sure we preserve value through this time. It just really doesn't get much worse than this. This is sort of beyond what you would expect out of a recession when you combine the European situation as well.
Okay, good. Can you talk a little bit about caustic demand and whether it seems to be holding up and sort of the differences between, you know, caustic prices or tightness in the United States and caustic prices or tightness in Asia?
Yeah. I think demand is okay, Jeff. I mean, I think the more interesting part of that whole discussion goes all the way back through the ECU and back to the vinyls chain. You know, what's happening with PVC pricing declining, perhaps PVC demand declining. You know, the key PVC producers are sort of in this betwixt and between world right now, where caustic values are very good, you know, in part to Olin's actions.
They're sort of running their businesses to take advantage of that and putting even more vinyls into the marketplace, which is further driving down price. That can't hold very long. Pretty soon, you know, that will flip to where vinyls production is reduced, and then caustic supply-demand fundamentals get even better than they are today. That's our expectation.
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Sure.
The next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks, good morning, everyone. Scott, can you just talk about volumes for, I guess, your chlorovinyls business in the third quarter versus second? What's the ballpark? How much is it gonna be down, if at all?
Yeah. Hey, Aleksey. You know, you've seen, you know, the announcement that we made, of course, where we said we were going to, you know, curtail our EDC production, and of course, that has an upstream impact on our ECU production as well at our Freeport, Texas facility. You know, our production is gonna be significantly reduced.
Our market participation doesn't necessarily reduce as much as our production decline because we do go out and access liquidity that's available in the marketplace. We're taking two steps there at the same time. One, we're reducing our production. Two, we're accessing liquidity that is available in the marketplace. Still, our participation is lower than it was in first quarter and fourth quarter of last year. You know, we're doing that in order to support the value of our EDC. It's down some. That's the one item on our chlor-alkali chain, you know, where we're working to preserve value as much as we can, but still prices declined.
Okay. Thanks a lot for this, Scott. The $2 billion buyback program, how are you thinking about the timing, something between 12 or 24 months? Also, would you consider increasing leverage to kinda hit that buyback number, or this is entirely from available Free Cash Flow?
Yeah. I mean, you know, Aleksey, I'll start with the back of that question first. Look, our intention is to, you know, buy shares out of our levered Free Cash Flow. You know, we take as much of that as we can and repurchase shares. You know, knowing that that is generally our intention, you know, if you think about the first half of this year, we probably bought back about 8% of our outstanding shares, and you should expect us to do something similar to that in the back half of this year. We'll continue on into 2023. That's the kinda run rate you might see.
Great. Thanks a lot.
Yep.
The next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. You also mentioned, I guess, in the release, that you know, you'd likely see a reduction in rates at Stade as well. Does that mean that you kinda flip back and increase the rates at Freeport? Could you just update on how you're thinking about managing through this higher energy cost environment and some of those demand trends that you're seeing there?
Yeah. Yeah, sure. I mean, when and if we take that action later here in the third quarter, I mean, we'll balance some of that. Ramping up production at our other sites. But still in this time period, this third quarter and moving into fourth quarter, I mean, you're gonna see us run our overall system in Epoxy still at very, very low rates as we reduce our participation. You know, lots of areas of that market are still pretty poor quality.
Thanks. As a quick follow-up, you know, you mentioned that China has flipped their trade flows in epoxy, I think. Just curious if you're concerned at all about that as it relates to caustic or other chlorine products, just because you know, if your outlook does call for potentially increased caustic margins or ECU margins, you know, because of reductions in operating rates due to chlorine weakness.
What do you expect more exports to wind up on the West Coast or the East Coast here because the returns are so great? Or is that unlikely? I guess just on that note, are you satisfied with the 865,000 tons of closures? Does that kinda take care of all your high-cost capacity, or would you expect to take more action on that side? Thanks.
Yeah, sure. I mean, look, what you describe has already been happening. I mean, with the slowdown generally in China demand relative to production, we've already seen additional caustic exports out of China, just like there's been a lot of extra PVC exports as well. That has been going on, and our model has already adapted to offset that exposure. We've seen those flows come in, and we're working around those flows. Still, we go out in certain cases and purchase some liquidity, you know, out of the global market space and maybe move it to a different area.
I mean, look, with regard to the 865,000 ECU tons, and just as a reminder, that 865,000 ECU tons, you know, included shutting down the remaining 200,000 tons of ECU capacity that is diaphragm based in McIntosh, Alabama. We have already accomplished that. In fact, we pulled it forward so all of the diaphragm capacity is down in McIntosh, Alabama. We'll have to see if we're satisfied with that. I mean, certainly that's made a difference in our ability to be nimble and drive for value. You know, that number has taken us to a reasonable point for now. There's always other options.
Okay, thanks.
The next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. In terms of the third quarter, if you got the volume that you're willing to walk away from, would your EBITDA be higher or lower or about the same?
Hey, Mike, this is Scott. Let me make sure I understand your question. You're saying if we were to get the volume that we are instead making proactive decisions to walk away from, what would be the outcome on EBITDA relative to what we forecasted?
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. Well, look, I mean, we're purposely, you know, not participating for a reason, right? So if we were to go out and grab, you know, that volume, it would be exactly counter to what we're trying to achieve. It's not impossible that we could accomplish that and have significantly higher EBITDA in the quarter, but it wouldn't be the right thing to do for 2023 and the back half of this year.
Got it. Okay. I guess when I take a look at your ECU PCI, you know, continues to go up, does that reverse? Where do you think it goes in the second half of the year?
Yeah. I mean, look, I'll let Todd kind of comment on this in just a minute. You know, there's clearly opportunity for pricing to move down. However, you know, fundamentally, I would say that, you know, most of our prices are gonna move up, so that if you saw a change in that, it'd likely be predominantly from mix or the impacts of our vinyls chain. Todd, help me on that.
No, that's right. That's right, Scott.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning and nice result. I was curious on Winchester. I saw that you're guiding 3Q to be down due to higher costs. Typically, Winchester has its best quarter in the third quarter. Does that imply that you've basically been running flat out here in the second quarter, and you know, there's not much more that you can get from a volume perspective, and it's really just a function of you know, the higher input costs? Is that how we think about it?
Hi, Frank, it's Todd. Yeah, and we would expect that, you know, volumes in Q3 will be similar to Q2. Given the demand environment we're in, I think that's how you should expect Winchester to operate. Again, it's you know, that's where Winchester is. You know, we have a high degree of confidence, as you know, where we hedge a lot of our commodities. We have a high degree of confidence our commodity costs in the third quarter will be higher than it was in the second quarter. You know, that's the headwind that we're facing here in the very near term.
Helpful. Thank you. Coming back to Slide 4, just wanna make sure I understand fully. The comment about relative to today, if you were to run your assets at 50%, chemical assets at 50% for an entire year, we should be thinking about EBITDA in the $1.5 billion. Is that how we read that?
Yeah. I would say in the $1.5 billion-$2 billion range. I mean, if the imminent recession, you know, became so bad and lasted that long, and we had to turn down everything to that low a level, then we would end up somewhere in the $1.5 billion-$2 billion. I mean, if that occurred, we'd be taking a lot of other actions to try to, you know, push us upward in that range. That's the impact that a dramatic move and dramatic actions like that could have on Olin.
Very helpful. Thank you so much.
Sure.
The next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Scott, if Germany went to phase three of their energy contingency program, how do you think that would impact supply demand in the markets where you compete, and by extension, Olin?
Yeah. I mean, there'd be a direct impact on Olin, and then there'd be indirect and tertiary impacts likely. I mean, the direct impact would be, you know, somewhat of a negative hit just because of our assets there. But as we've shown recently, we certainly have the ability to curtail those and still be okay. When you get to the, you know, the secondary impact, it's more than likely to increase product values in trade flows that move into Europe. Any increase in the product value of those trade flows is a positive for Olin.
Okay, I appreciate that. Then secondly, I wanted to ask you about caustic soda pricing. I think in early July, you proposed an increase, and then if some of the consultant notes are to be believed, you doubled the amount of the increase, or a week or two later in mid-July. Is that accurate? And if so, why did you do that? Maybe you can elaborate on what you're seeing in that market today.
Yeah, sure. Yeah. I mean, I would say that's generally accurate, that we did take that step, you know, because that product has more value in today's environment. What's really behind that and driving that is that with the weakness of chlorine derivatives and, you know, again, you can think of epoxy, you can think of polyurethanes, you can think of PVC and the supporting vinyl intermediates there. With that evolving weakness, it essentially changed the side of the ECU that is weaker than the other side. For many months, the caustic side has been the weaker side relative to chlorine and derivatives. Now, chlorine derivatives are the weaker side of the ECU.
We have flip-flopped our model just over the recent course of history, and we've set our market participation on a first order, based on that weaker side of the ECU being chlorine and derivatives. Basically, concurrently with that, we expect an increase in the value of the caustic side, and we've moved our pricing up.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Sure.
The next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just a couple questions regarding this statement about you could run your assets at 50% rates for a year. Where would you estimate your operating rates are likely to be in the third quarter? And can you comment on the significance of the one year phrase? Is there something implicit in running at that rate that is really unsustainable beyond just the financial impacts?
Yeah, sure. I mean, you know, the only business that we've really provided, you know, indications on where we're running is our epoxy business. We've said we're running that business pretty close to 50% operating rate. I would just say in our CAPV business that, you know, we're well above that level and have plenty of room there. You know, the only significance in the one year is we were trying to demonstrate, you know, what is the lowest full year EBITDA that Olin might have in its future. We picked a pretty long recession scenario. In other words, one year where the global economy declined so much that we had to run at that rate every day for a full year.
We're trying to be a bit conservative here because clearly Olin's equity value is driven by the view that under that kind of scenario, our EBITDA must be much lower than where we believe it is. We're just trying to present a compelling case that says we are good in a recession. In fact, we can create value via really good capital allocation right through the middle of that recession. That's the idea that's behind that 12-month window.
I've also wanted to ask you just whether or not you're getting any collective criticisms from the municipal water treatment authorities on the price of chlorine. Anything going on there that's kind of unusual?
No, I wouldn't say that there's anything unusual. I think the real issue is that, you know, chlorine is only been moved up to call it $0.50 a pound. For the value it provides and then the importance of the material that, you know, we directionally in that market got to move it toward $1 a pound. That's the only criticism we have is our own that it's undervalued.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. This is James Cannon on for Josh.
Hi.
If you were further to lower your utilization and shut plants down, would there be a significant working capital release?
Well, look, I mean, the working capital release should one occur, you know, would likely be at the face or at the initial point of a slowdown. That's when you would see it. It's not necessarily associated with a curtailment or a shutdown. Those are generally not related.
Okay. Thank you.
Sure.
The next question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Scott, how are you thinking about the global cost curve for ECU in the back half of the year? We've seen a big increase in European natural gas prices so far in July. Does that provide some price support for caustic and chlorine, or do you expect these demand factors to outweigh that?
Yeah. Yeah, thanks for the question. I mean, generally, I just don't think about it at all, to tell you the truth. I mean, we're focused on the value of ECUs for what they deliver in the marketplace and in the world. I mean, your point is relevant that, you know, as the energy complex and other cost and inflation in the world that may be different between the regions. You're right, we can sort of point at Europe here. As that moves up, it certainly helps put what I'll call a psychological margin bottom or a floor on where the value of ECUs might be. It's the trends that are happening are generally only favorable there.
Makes sense. Then can we circle back to the Winchester guide for Q3? I guess, you know, we're seeing copper and lead prices that are actually cheaper in July versus the Q2 average. Could you walk through exactly what commodity costs are causing the headwinds in Q3?
Matthew, this is Todd. As you know, we do hedge our commodity costs, not just natural gas, but you know, copper and zinc for Winchester for brass. You know, a quarter out, we are very heavily hedged. We have a rolling four-quarter program. Because of our hedge positions, I mean, you just can't look at the, I'll say, the current month or the spot prices in the market and assume that will be the value that runs through our P&L. Again, we do have a high degree of confidence based on our hedges. Our commodity costs and other material costs are gonna be higher in the third quarter than the second.
Sounds good. Thank you.
The next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. This is Alyssa on for Angel. I'm just wondering if bolt-on M&A is still in the mix. If so, you know, what kind of opportunities are you looking at there? How are valuations trending in this, you know, weak macro?
Yeah. Hi. I mean, it's definitely part of the mix. I mean, when we do think about our capital allocation program, I mean, you know, we're gonna. You know, we take care of our dividend. There's a very limited amount of bonds that, you know, we'd like to pay by the end of the year, but that's capped at roughly $200 million. Most of that is gonna go to share repurchase. There is some opportunistic small bolt-on M&A available. I'm doubtful that, you know, there's a high chance that a lot of that would happen in the back half of this year. 2023 is not impossible. What is more likely is that we continue to make progress on some of these alliances and joint ventures, which are very low capital endeavors. Todd, go.
Maybe just to add a comment, Scott. As we look at, you know, bolt-on or M&A activities, you know, those investments truly need to compete with investing in Olin stock and buying Olin shares back with, directionally a 20% Free Cash Flow yield. You know, the lens of M&A has to compete with that. Today, you know, even though maybe multiples have come in a little bit, it's still a pretty high hurdle to, you know, for that to compete with the Olin stock price.
Understood. Thank you.
The next question comes from Eric Petrie with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Scott and Todd.
Morning.
Hi.
I was wondering if you could comment a little bit your thoughts on the EPA's proposal to ban, you know, the asbestos cell-based production. In terms of Olin, would you take that as an opportunity to keep capacity flat or expand or reduce capacity?
Yeah. Yeah, sure. I mean, it's a proposed rule right now, and the proposed rule has a two year phase out of all diaphragm asbestos-based chlorine production. So, roughly 30%-40% of this country's ECU production and chlorine production is based on asbestos diaphragms. So, if the EPA was to be able to finalize that rule in its current form, you'd probably cripple the country. That's not gonna happen. We've been engaged in this activity for quite a while and have pushed back on it. I think you're not likely to see a final rule come out that is as proposed. If that rule came out like that, there'd be no choice but to shut down immense amounts of capacity, and you would see ECUs turned into gold if that happens.
Helpful. Then for my follow-up question, you're guiding third quarter EBITDA down 15% quarter-over-quarter. How would you bucket that roughly between volume, price, and higher costs?
Yeah. Well, I think, you know, you see some elements of all of that. You know, like Todd commented, where we have hedge positions and other things and costs, some of that is, you know, well-known. You know, because of the steps that we've announced to curtail some of our production, there's an element of that that is volume, which is offset by the material that we purchase and resell. Pricing across, more products than not are likely to increase a bit, offsetting some of that as well. It's kind of a balance.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay.
The next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. First question, I just wanted to follow up on a comment Todd made, but just given all the energy volatility, can you just remind us your hedging position or just philosophy around locking in natural gas or electricity costs?
Yeah. Hey, thanks, Mike. You know, we think of energy directionally, 70% of our North American power is natural gas based, and we are a very heavy hedger of gas, you know, as proxy for our energy consumption. So a quarter out, we are very heavily hedged. A significant hedge position already locked in for the third quarter. It's really a rolling four-quarter position that, you know, has a sliding scale with the remaining quarters. So as gas, you know, stays up, you'll see it roll through our P&L as higher energy costs. When gas comes down, you know, that gives us an opportunity to lock into lower prices. You know, we're confident that, you know, we will have higher costs in our chemical businesses for power in the third quarter.
Got it. Makes sense. Maybe just a second, I want to circle back to, I think your answer to Jeff's question about epoxy and China turning to a net exporter. Just when you look at other chemical products or cycles, when you see that happen, things do tend to get a bit sloppy for a bit of time. Can you just walk through your comfort that that's not the case for epoxy or EPI right now, and it's only temporary, as you say?
Yeah. Well, no, I would just say that it is already the case for EPI and Epoxy. There is so much material that used to be imported into China that now because of, you know, the mismatch of China's internal consumption versus their production, now that material that used to move into China does not anymore. Most of that material came from other Asian countries.
Consequently, those other Asian countries have been exporting that material to North America and to Europe, and that's been going on for a number of months. That is why, you know, our Epoxy earnings came down. You know, we've elected not to participate in that, have our value remain where it is, and when that reverses, which it will reverse, we're left where our volumes return, but they return at the pricing level that we had notched it up to.
Great. Makes sense. Thank you.
Sure.
The next question comes from Roger Spitz with Bank of America Credit. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning.
Morning.
Can we have an update on your desire to actually achieve IG ratings and perhaps your share repurchase program announced that suggests that you're not really chasing that?
Hi, Roger. It's Todd. You know, obviously, you know in the past, Olin has been an investment-grade credit. You know, we've been operating with investment-grade metrics since, you know, late last year. You know, and as you can see from the recession scenario that we laid out on Slide 4, frankly, we can continue to operate with investment-grade metrics during a recession, given the strong balance sheet earnings and cash flows of the business.
To your question about the share repurchase, I don't think that we are sacrificing any of our credit metrics on our share repurchase program. Now, we understand the question about investment-grade, and we're gonna continue, you know, to evaluate whether investment-grade really should be an objective for Olin, given that the view is we can operate with those metrics, you know, in a recession as well as, you know, without.
Great. Secondly, a number of the European chlor-alkali producers have been able to expand their spreads in the face of extraordinarily high electrical power costs. I wonder if you could speak to your chlor-alkali on a non-forward integrated basis, how your spreads have looked here in North America.
Yeah. I would just say that they've been constantly expanding. You know, if you kind of refer to a chart we have in the appendix, it's you know, the ECU PCI. It basically shows the expanding you know, contribution margin there. So that is our you know, variable margin, and it's been ever-expanding over nearly the last couple years. Yeah. That's Slide 9 in the deck, Roger.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Sure.
As there are no further questions, this concludes our question- and- answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Sutton for closing comments.
Yeah, no, thanks a lot. I would just thank everyone for joining us today, and we appreciate the questions. Thanks a lot.
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.