Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Aug 9, 2022

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Onto Innovation second quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Michael Sheaffer. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Sheaffer
Senior Director of Investor Relations, Onto Innovation

Thank you, Kyle, and good afternoon, everyone. Onto Innovation issued its 2022 second quarter financial results this afternoon shortly after the market closed. If you haven't received a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website, where a copy of the release is posted. Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer, and Mark Slicer, Chief Financial Officer.

As always, I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Such statements are subject to a range of changes, risks, and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially. For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results, I would encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings.

Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release. I will now go ahead and turn the call over to Michael Plisinski . Mike?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon, and welcome to Onto Innovation's second quarter earnings call. We have many exciting highlights to cover today, but before we do, I want to first welcome Mark Slicer to his first earnings call with Onto Innovation. As many of you are aware, Mark joins us from Boston Scientific, where he was Senior Vice President of Global Financial Operations.

In this role, he was responsible for the financial performance of the worldwide manufacturing and distribution network, having a production value of approximately $3 billion annually. Mark's experience driving global supply chain improvements, gross margin expansion, and M&A will be an asset to our team as we build the scale to support the growing demand for our connected solutions. In fact, we're on pace for systems revenue to grow 30% this year, following 48% growth in 2021.

We believe this strong performance is a result of the compelling value of our connected solutions and a customer success team which has been realigned to support our customers' goals. We see this leading to deeper and earlier collaborations with strategic customers across the value chain, which in turn will help Onto Innovation sustain our strong performance in the years ahead.

Let's begin with a look at the growth in the second quarter. Once again, the Onto Innovation team delivered another record-breaking quarter of $256 million of revenue, aided by customer acceptance of our JetStep X500 lithography systems. This is a significant milestone for the JetStep lithography program, which was designed to meet the growing demand for advanced substrates to support heterogeneous packages for high-performance compute applications.

In addition to strong volume growth, we see an increase in the number of interconnect layers per panel flowing future factory output. Considering these factors, we anticipate capacity constraints could continue through 2024. The acceleration of the multi-year program to meet this demand, compounded by the impacts of COVID, supply chains, rising logistics costs, resulted in initial product margins well below our targets.

Through each of these next six quarters, we are systematically improving manufacturing efficiencies, volume supply agreements, leveraging lead times to use more cost-effective logistics, and increasing the performance and productivity of the platform.

With these efforts, and in spite of elevated supply chain costs, we expect our corporate gross margin for the second half of 2022 to return to recent norms of 54%-55% for the remainder of the year, and that includes the projected shipment of 2 JetStep systems in the third quarter and 3 in the fourth quarter. Including contributions from lithography business, our specialty in advanced packaging revenue increased 19% over the prior quarter.

Another highlight from this market included the successful launch of our new EB40 module for the Dragonfly G3. This system provides the increased throughput and sensitivity required to monitor yield loss at the edge of wafers for advanced memory and logic devices.

We enhanced this platform further by integrating our 280C software, which includes the machine learning classifications required to deliver process insights to our customers, not just defect counts from less sophisticated alternatives.

This same value proposition was recently adopted by a NovusEdge customer in the wafer manufacturing, and this differentiation partially contributed to Onto securing more than $100 million of orders extending into 2025 to support the capacity expansion of bare silicon for EUV applications.

Through the rapid demand for our EB40, a few of our new suppliers struggled to meet their delivery commitments in the quarter. This impacted inspection shipments in the second quarter by roughly $5 million. We expect improvements in the third quarter, but will still be constrained until the fourth quarter.

Turning now to the advanced nodes market, revenue is down slightly over the first quarter, but up 47% year-over-year. Leading this growth was our Atlas OCD platform for measuring critical dimensions of 3D transistors at the nanometer scale. Last month, our Atlas V was honored by industry experts at SEMI Americas and Semiconductor Digest with the Best of West Award at SEMICON West Trade Show.

This award recognizes innovative new products each year that are significantly advancing semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Of course, one of the biggest advances in the industry is the transition from FinFET transistors to a higher performance but more complicated nanosheet transistor structure.

Our Atlas 3D metrology has been qualified by several leading logic manufacturers for their critical nanosheet process control steps. We've received orders for both 3- and 2-nanometer nanosheet nodes.

We believe this demonstrates the performance advantage of our patented optical sensors and advanced analytics over X-ray and other optical alternatives for volume production. Likewise, the expansion of our metrology technology into the planar films market is proving valuable to customers.

The Iris platform is currently delivering throughputs at twice the speed of alternative systems while maintaining comparable stability. In the second quarter, revenue from Iris grew 49% over last year, and we are on track to meet or exceed our goal of achieving $50 million in revenue from this market segment by the end of the year.

Over the last 2 years, we've seen revenue from MetaPULSE acoustic metrology double that of preceding years, addressing applications in 3D NAND, power, and MEMS segments. Our new Echo acoustic metrology is positioned to extend that capability to newer industry challenges.

For example, in 3D NAND, as the tier stacks continue to grow, new opaque hard mask materials are being transitioned for critical channel hole formation. Echo metrology is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these technology inflections and is already entering the market with an order backlog of $20 million. Now, I'll turn the call over to Mark for a review of the financial highlights and our third quarter outlook.

Mark Slicer
CFO, Sequel Med Tech

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. First, let me thank Mike and the entire Onto team for an incredible welcome. I am excited to be part of Onto Innovation and look forward to contributing to the next phase of profitable and leveraged growth ahead of us. I will start by providing some details on Q2 results, then follow with an outlook for the third quarter.

As Mike mentioned, we had another record quarter with second quarter revenues of $256.3 million, approximately $8 million above the high end of our previous guidance range, supported by the recognition of the X500 lithography systems within the quarter. Breaking down the revenue by market, Advanced Nodes revenue of $94.5 million grew 47% year-over-year and represents 37% of revenue.

Specialty device and advanced packaging, which benefited from the X500 revenue within the quarter, achieved $117.3 million, grew 28% year-over-year, and represents 46% of revenue. Software and services revenue of $44.5 million, setting another quarterly record, grew 19% year-over-year and represents 17% of revenue.

As was mentioned during Q1, once able to recognize the revenue on lithography systems, this would create a headwind on the quarterly gross margins, which were 52%, down from 54% in the first quarter. In addition, we continue to experience significant disruptions and inflationary cost pressures from our supply chain, which are also impacting gross margins in the quarter. Second quarter operating expenses were $59 million at the midpoint of our previous guidance.

We did see an increase sequentially by approximately $2 million from the first quarter, primarily from higher compensation costs. However, we continue to drive significant operating expense leverage as on a year-over-year comparison, operating expenses as a percent of revenue decreased by 600 basis points.

We also posted strong operating margins at 29%, continuing to demonstrate the leverage in our operating model as our operating margin increased by approximately 300 basis points compared to a year ago. Operating margin is down from Q1, primarily due to the gross margin impact from the lithography systems. We do expect our operating margin to reaccelerate in Q3. Net income in the second quarter was $64 million or $1.28 per share, $0.02 above the midpoint of our previous guidance.

Moving to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash of $545 million, up $34 million since the start of the year and up $3.1 million since Q1. During the quarter, we did leverage our overall strong cash position to make further investments in our inventory and our infrastructure to support the growth of the business.

Inventory increased to $281 million in the quarter on higher planned revenue in the second half of 2022, as well as increasing certain safety stock levels as a hedge against ongoing supply chain disruptions. Accounts receivable increased to $235 million in the quarter, and our days sales outstanding increased to 83 days due to the timing of the revenue within the quarter.

We do expect to get back to the normal trend of cash generation in the second half of 2022. Now turning to our outlook for Q3. We currently expect revenue for the third quarter to be between $242 million-$258 million.

We expect our gross margins will be between 54%-55%, driven by sales mix, expanding our supply chain, and leveraging our fixed cost structure. For operating expenses, we expect to be between $60 million-$62 million. For the full year 2022, assuming no changes to tax legislation, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 13%-14%.

We expect our diluted share count for Q3 to be approximately 50 million shares. Based upon these assumptions, we anticipate our non-GAAP earnings to be between $1.21 per share-$1.42 per share. With that, I will turn it back to Mike for additional insights into Q3 and the remainder of 2022.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Thank you, Mark. We continue to believe revenue in the second half of 2022 will be stronger than the first half. Within the advanced nodes market in the third quarter, we see double-digit growth from logic and NAND customers, more than offsetting declines in spending from DRAM manufacturers.

The logic spending is primarily for sub-5-nanometer nodes, where we see increases in sampling rates and layer share gains, resulting in higher attach rates for Atlas metrology. In 3D NAND, strong Atlas sales are being complemented by growing adoption of our Aspect metrology. We expect repeat orders and another top 5 NAND manufacturer to adopt Aspect for production in the quarter.

The Aspect metrology system is providing superior precision, stability, and robustness for the high aspect ratio channel hole metrology relative to competitive solutions using traditional simpler interferometric designs.

We expect this product to be a larger contributor to revenue as manufacturers move high stack 3D NAND into higher volumes of production. We do foresee a decline for our specialty and advanced packaging customers after such a strong second quarter. We expect this to pick up again in the fourth quarter, particularly for packaging and power devices.

Contributing to our view of a stronger second half, bookings outpaced billings in the second quarter, adding to our backlog, which is now over $700 million. Given this unprecedented visibility, we project system sales to advanced node customers to grow over 40% for the year, and systems for specialty devices and advanced packaging to grow over 20%, each well ahead of fab equipment spending estimates of 8%-10% for the industry overall.

Even with this exciting growth, we're still in the early stages of transforming our company into a partner of choice for connected solutions across the semiconductor value chain. Although we're happy with the progress made so far, we see our best and most exciting advances are still to come. With that, we will open the call for your questions. Kyle, please open the lines.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We pause just for a moment to assemble the queue. We take our first question from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company. Your line is open.

Quinn Bolton
Managing Director, Equity Research, Needham & Company

Hey, guys. Congratulations on the nice results and especially on recognizing revenue on the JetStep X500. I wanted to start just with a couple of clarifications. Mike, I think you'd mentioned that there were some production issues for the inspection systems in Q2 and $5 million revenue was affected, and it sounds like some of those constraints continue into Q3. Can you just kind of give us a sense of what you're seeing for that market, especially with the very strong demand for Dragonfly with EB40?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Sure. That's actually the challenge. The suppliers, some of our suppliers were unable to meet that strong demand. You know, we announced the product. We had, I think it was over 11 or over 10 customers add up to $75 million in backlog.

You know, customers or let's say the customers wanted the tools in the first, I don't know, several quarters, first two quarters. Some of our suppliers, in fact, some fairly, you know, smaller, obscure suppliers were unable to meet the demand. We're working with them to increase their capacity and their production capabilities. There was some quality issues where we had to help them work through some rework.

As we get through that, we'll be able to meet, you know, full demand and be right back on track. We are accelerating. We did ship tools in the second quarter. We will ship more tools in the third quarter and finally relieve the constraints in the fourth quarter.

Quinn Bolton
Managing Director, Equity Research, Needham & Company

Got it. Then the second question on the JetStep lithography systems. I know the initial systems that you recognized in the second quarter here carried pretty low gross margins just given the long eval costs. But as you look forward to Q3, Q4, can you give us some sense where those margins go as you begin to recognize you know sort of tools that did not go through those extended evals?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yeah. As I mentioned, there'll be steady improvements over the next six quarters. Without trying to peel back individual product line gross margins, I did provide commentary that we'll be back into the 54%-55% range in the third and fourth quarters, and that will include two JetStep lithography systems in the third quarter and three in the fourth.

Quinn Bolton
Managing Director, Equity Research, Needham & Company

Got it. Thank you. I'll go back in the queue.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

That will continue to improve throughout 2023.

Quinn Bolton
Managing Director, Equity Research, Needham & Company

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities. Your line is open.

Craig Ellis
Director Of Research, Senior Semiconductor and Capital Equipment Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Yeah, thanks for taking the question, and I'll echo the congratulations on

Ramp on the JetStep X500, just a significant milestone there, guys. Congratulations. I wanted to start just by following up with a longer-term JetStep question. Nice to see the momentum building as we go through the back half, with two and three product shipping respectively in 3Q and 4Q. Can you provide us any color on just the way the linearity could shake out in 2023? Is the backlog simply that $100 million minus what you have shipped in 2Q and plan to ship in the second half, or have you added to the prior $100 million backlog?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

You might recall we were capacity constrained, so we already booked our full capacity for 2023. In fact, we increased capacity for 2023 and then booked that. That was done, you know, early last year. Right now we're working on 2024 and looking at the demand and our manufacturing constraints and increasing capacity to serve 2024 demands.

From a linearity perspective, I don't recall if we're going to be at max capacity in the first quarter, but it would be either starting the first quarter and then leveling off for the next three quarters, or we'll start right out at that top level for all four quarters.

Craig Ellis
Director Of Research, Senior Semiconductor and Capital Equipment Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Got it. Mike, it'd be great just to get some additional color on the commentary around Atlas and the 2-nanometer gate-all-around and advanced transistor architecture qualifications, and just some of the things you're seeing in that part of the market.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yeah. We are seeing a lot of movement. It's, you know, a bunch of pull-ins, you know, people trying to accelerate their ability to ramp. You know, recently we had some customers publicly announce delays to their 3-nanometer process. From our perspective and what we're seeing, there's still, you know, decent demand for the Atlas in order to ramp the pilot production and eventually volume for the nanosheet transition.

We are seeing different timelines from different logic suppliers. You know, we've one that's announced they're already running production, other a little bit maybe a year behind, and then a third even further behind than that. That's all, everybody's racing to bring that to production, you know, relatively quickly.

I see a lot of movement and competition in the space. What's nice for us is that the Atlas is proving to be a very potent tool for them to be able to make the critical measurements for the new nanosheet process steps.

Those critical measurements are requiring far more sampling and because of the APC control layer. We're actually taking our data and adjusting the process, so providing true APC, automatic process control, in order to meet the yield requirements. That's also adding to the attach rate.

Craig Ellis
Director Of Research, Senior Semiconductor and Capital Equipment Analyst, B. Riley Securities

If I could sneak in just one more before hopping back in the queue. Mike, it sounded like from your commentary that the Aspect strength that you're seeing across a number of manufacturers is indeed quite strong.

While there's been a lot of concern of late about capital spending in the memory market, it seems like where you're positioned for layer count increases, which are predominantly 128 layer, going up to, I think there have been three different announcements above 230 layer. It seems like that's benefiting the company's position in the marketplace. Is that right? Can you just give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing in the NAND area?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yeah, that's definitely correct. I think it also brings in the Echo product line as well. We're seeing opportunities for Echo there as well on the hard mask layer. From an overall NAND perspective, this transition to high-stack 3D NAND is going to be, you know, similar to the transistor transition.

It's gonna be a big step function. You know, it's all about bit density. Where historically we just had the Atlas, now we have Atlas, Aspect and MetaPULSE, the Echo product line, providing a more complete solution for process control of, you know, in the case of channel hole development, formation, as well as other features in the 3D NAND, like the hard mask layer.

In addition, we're leveraging our hybrid metrology capabilities to take the different data streams from these tools and further enhance the information we're providing the customers. That becomes very unique. It's one thing to get measurement capability from different, you know, three different tools, and you can mix and match and maybe replace. When their combination of data streams provides some unique value, that becomes, let's say, more sticky.

Craig Ellis
Director Of Research, Senior Semiconductor and Capital Equipment Analyst, B. Riley Securities

Got it. Thanks very much, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Brian Chin with Stifel. Your line is open.

Brian Chin
Director, Equity Research, Stifel

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe just to initially hop in with a few questions on lithography. Just wondering, Mark, if you could provide what gross margins would have been in 2Q and 3Q, excluding litho, number one.

Number two, the 54%-55% level in second half is a pretty good snapback. So kind of curious what some of those initial gross margin improvement levers you're seeing in terms of that recovery and also maybe if you're seeing a better mix with Atlas tools, et cetera, also in terms of the other products in second half.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yeah, yeah. Thanks, Brian. Certainly on the gross margin, I mean, as Mike mentioned, I don't think we're gonna get into the specifics of the litho tool. You know, as we commented on, I mean, certainly we see a return back into that 54%-55% range.

Obviously baked within that we do continue to see, you know, cost pressures and supply chain pressures which we made comment on. I don't expect that to be any different in Q3 and Q4, so we'll see some of those headwinds we'll still have to try and offset.

Brian Chin
Director, Equity Research, Stifel

I got it. One of the big helpers is sort of the lower revenue contribution, second half relative to 2Q, with litho.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

No, Brian, we also will see, as I mentioned, a steady improvement in the gross margin throughout the next six quarters, specifically to the litho. We've also been working on, you know, increasing the value propositions for our existing tools, driving throughput, driving other enhancements to help, you know, offset some of the supply chain challenges we've seen. I think, you know, we're definitely taking several steps to maintain or continue to expand the gross margin despite the headwinds that we face.

Brian Chin
Director, Equity Research, Stifel

Okay. Fair enough. I guess I think I'm obliged again to ask about memory. Mike, within the construct of your higher second half versus first half, and certainly your new product expansions, you know, play a big role, I think, in that for the year as well as probably even second half.

What sort of risk are you dialing in in terms of memory? Obviously, it seems a little bit fluid in terms of recent commentary from, you know, some of the key spenders in memory or specifically one earlier today. Kind of curious, what are you dialing in in terms of, you know, maybe a downtick in DRAM. Seems like NAND, you know, seems pretty healthy still. What are you thinking through second half and maybe even to tease out sort of next year in terms of the fluidity?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

For sure, we think we have the announcements baked into our commentary. I did mention in the prepared remarks that DRAM would be down but offset by continued strength in NAND and logic, particularly for the advanced nodes.

Yeah, barring future surprises, you know, wheels falling off the bus kind of thing, our channel checks, our discussions with the customers, you know, we're pretty confident. The visibility we have, the fact that the book-to-bill has continued to be higher, you know, over 1, leads us to believe we're still in an environment where the equipment is in high demand. You know, for us, it's not just the volume.

We're also tied to several technology transitions, not just with the transistors, you know, the nanosheets or the subfive nanometer, but also with certain DRAM transitions, one A, one B, that they all have different names. There are some DRAM technology transitions, as well as of course, the 3D NANDs, the high stack 3D NAND we've been talking about.

Flipping to specialty and advanced packaging, you're right. We do see some opportunities with the lithography, with some of the new products. Certainly the high demand of the Dragonfly looks to be very solid. We've talked about pretty strong backlog in the wafer manufacturing space. The very conservative wafer manufacturers driving or ex.

Driving expansions to support the growing demand for EUV wafers and our position for process control solutions and material solutions to serve that market. You know, you take all these different shots on goal, and you can add them up and take a factor for some of the negativity, and we still, you know, we still see the stronger second half and some of the numbers we talked about for growth, 40% advanced node systems and 20% or more for packaging and specialty.

Brian Chin
Director, Equity Research, Stifel

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Hans Chung with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Hans Chung
Market Intelligence Manager, TSMC

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. First, can you provide some color around the specialty and the advanced packaging segment? How much of the business is sort of have more exposure to the mobile end market? What's the revenue mix between like compound semiconductor versus just the other piece? How much exposure to the silicon carbide? Thank you.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

That was a lot. I don't think we have all the breakdowns that you're asking for, but just to give you a kind of to step back and provide some higher level view. For, let's say, a consumer market, I would say that the primary driver there is our OSAT business, and that's factored in. We definitely mentioned a slowdown there.

On the flip side, part of our packaging business and part of the demand for the Dragonfly has been around packaging for advanced memory and logic devices, and the efforts that customers are investing in to improve yields for those devices by driving higher yields, by better process monitoring on the edge, where they could see a higher yield loss of die. I think that's one part of it.

In the specialty, I'd say a bulk of our power business is tied to compound semiconductor, and to the extent I think silicon carbide is still relatively small there. To the extent that, you know, our customers are investing in the silicon carbide ramp, we certainly have positions. I don't know, do you have more detail?

Hans Chung
Market Intelligence Manager, TSMC

No.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

No. Sorry, we don't have that so finely broken down, Hans.

Hans Chung
Market Intelligence Manager, TSMC

Okay. That's fair. I guess the next question is more like medium term. I remember, before you come in, like there in terms of demand, there will be 80% of the 3D NAND will be more than 176 layers. I'm just curious, like how does that translate to your revenue opportunity in 3D NAND? Would that be kind of across the Atlas, Aspect and/or the acoustic metrology, or it's more weighted to the Atlas?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

The Atlas is definitely the workhorse. That's well established and process tool of record in every NAND manufacturer. That's for sure. You know, the workhorse or the bulk of the revenue opportunities.

We're further adding to that with the Aspect and the Echo product lines. We think that those combinations, you know, especially as we see a ramp into the higher stack 3D NAND, those combinations are gonna increase and certainly increase in percentage of our overall revenue there.

How much is a little bit unclear 'cause they're still trying to determine how much process monitoring they're gonna do with these tools. Is it gonna be in line in every step, or is it going to be, you know, a sampling rate? That's what they're working on now as part of ramping up production.

Hans Chung
Market Intelligence Manager, TSMC

Okay. Thank you.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Well, for sure, we will see each of these tools, we're already seeing them being qualified for production, so they will be part of production. What's in question is the attach rate.

Hans Chung
Market Intelligence Manager, TSMC

Got it. I'll attempt to keep.

Operator

We take our next question from David Duley with Steelhead Securities. Your line is open.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Congratulations on nice results. I guess I was wondering if you could excuse me, provide us a little bit more detail. How big do you think the size of the Atlas market is at this point, and what sort of market share do you have with that product line in that space?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

These are estimates 'cause it's not broken down, you know, by any industry analyst. I would say it's about $400 million-$500 million or so, out of an optical metrology market of about $1.2 billion now. In that, I would say we have, well, pretty good share. I'd say we're probably, I don't know, certainly dominant in the high end, the high-end OCD applications.

I think, you know, some of the more common OCD applications, we might have a little less share. Overall that's, you know, that's the view. I can't say for sure what the share is. I'd say 50% on the high end or more. On the common share, maybe, you know, 30%-40%, something like this, 'cause we're a little more expensive for that.

That's where our Iris platform is coming into play, where we're able to offer that upgrade ability so we can go after cost effectively the lower end of that market and be able to compete and gain share there, and then offer the upgrade ability to, you know, full OCD and full capability of our Atlas. The other penetration points are the planar films, which is the other half of that optical metrology market.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

Okay. Now as far as the lithography business goes, you're talking about shipping five, I guess, five units in the second half. That sounds similar to the revenue recognition level that you just had in the first half.

You know, I guess roughly $40-ish million for the calendar year. Can you help us understand, you know, with you increasing capacity next year, what the revenue potential is if there's no supply constraints?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

I had mentioned we had $100 million in backlog. You've got the $40 million coming out, so that's at least $60 million. You know, if we can squeeze a little more in, we'll try.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

Okay. Just as a housekeeping, you mentioned a couple times system sales in 2022, advanced nodes, and then the advanced packaging and specialty. Could you just repeat those growth rates for me? Because somehow or another, I missed them.

Mark Slicer
CFO, Sequel Med Tech

Yeah, sorry. Advanced nodes, the 47% year-over-year and represents 37% of revenue. Specialty device and advanced packaging grew 28% year-over-year and represents 46% of revenue. Software and services grew at 19% year-over-year and represents 17% of revenue.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

I actually meant, I think Mike mentioned what the systems growth was going to be for the calendar year for both segments at one point or another.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Oh.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

Now that you just repeated it in the third quarter.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Sorry. Yeah, sorry. I had mentioned that based on the projections we see, the advanced node systems revenue would be around 40%, over 40%. Based on the projections, the pace we're at, the advanced packaging and specialty systems revenue would be over 20%.

David Duley
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Steelhead Securities LLC

Thank you.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

You're welcome.

Operator

We take our next question from Mark Miller with The Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Mark Miller
Senior Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Thank you for the question. With the recently signed U.S. CHIPS Act, Europe has previously authorized funding for internal chip production. Also, I believe there's at least 7 fabs totaling over $80 billion that are supposed to start coming up next year. When do these opportunities start hitting your order book?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

I guess as soon as they start ordering equipment. Right now, that's a pretty fluid situation. My understanding is, the government is going to set up an entire, I won't say bureaucracy, but a body to govern how the funds will be allocated, because it's quite a big amount, and there's two different groups that are being considered or two different bodies being considered for this.

As that comes out, then the rules will come out for how the money will be distributed. Obviously, there are sensitivities. We saw that in the debates between, the various stakeholders on the policymakers on the, on the CHIPS Act itself. From that, then we'll start to see hopefully pretty aggressive announcements from our customers, and pretty aggressive ramps. They've got to break ground.

They've got to build the fabs, the shells, and then start ordering equipment to fill them. I would say a year. You know, some have already started, so we're optimistic. You know, TSMC is probably the furthest along. Samsung's coming up, and Intel would be behind them. You know, it'll be. I wouldn't expect anything, you know, in the next six months.

Mark Miller
Senior Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. You're building up significant cash. What are your priorities again for cash?

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Priorities are primarily for M&A. We think that's still the best opportunity for shareholder value creation. We've talked about buybacks. You know, we have an authorized buyback out there. $80 million?

Mark Slicer
CFO, Sequel Med Tech

$100 million.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

$100 million.

Mark Slicer
CFO, Sequel Med Tech

$100 million.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yep.

Mark Miller
Senior Equity Research Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Thank you.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please press star one to ask a question. Star one to ask a question. We take our next question from Eric Gregg with Four Tree Island Advisory. Your line is open.

Eric Gregg
Founder and Principal, Four Tree Island Advisory LLC

Thank you. Congratulations on the great quarter and good outlook. Actually, this is just a follow-up to the immediately prior question. It looks like you have about $11 of cash in the balance sheet right now, and you're trading at maybe 10 times next year's earnings. Why isn't it stock purchases in a higher priority or maybe more balanced in your capital allocation focus relative to acquisitions, given how low risk it may seem and so attractive at these levels? Thanks.

Mark Slicer
CFO, Sequel Med Tech

Yeah. Yeah, no, I mean, certainly, you know, we continue to consider M&A a first priority. In that regard, I think, you know, from a cash standpoint, you know, making sure we have those funds available is obviously a priority.

Michael Plisinski
CEO, Onto Innovation

Yeah, we have formulas. We look at, you know, the investments we could make on the buyback and the pipeline we have for M&A, and we make decisions based on basically the best returns. That's just prudent management, I guess.

Eric Gregg
Founder and Principal, Four Tree Island Advisory LLC

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Michael Sheaffer for any additional closing comments.

Michael Sheaffer
Senior Director of Investor Relations, Onto Innovation

Thanks, Kyle. We'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on our website by 7:30 Eastern Time this evening. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Onto Innovation. Kyle, please conclude the call. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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