Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)
NASDAQ: OPEN · Real-Time Price · USD
5.43
-0.08 (-1.45%)
Apr 27, 2026, 12:49 PM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2024

Sep 9, 2024

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Welcome to the Opendoor presentation at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. I have the privilege of introducing Carrie Wheeler, who's the CEO of Opendoor. She served as CFO of Opendoor for two years before being appointed as CEO in December of 2022. Prior to joining Opendoor, Carrie was a partner and head of retail and consumer investing at TPG Capital. My name is Mike Ng. I cover Opendoor and real- estate tech here at the firm. We have about 35 minutes for today's presentation, inclusive of investor Q&A, so first, thank you so much for being here, Carrie.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Thanks for having me.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

It's really a-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Privilege to have you on stage.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Thank you again.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, the pleasure is mine. So, you know, Opendoor, very interesting story. The most successful iBuyer who's managed to scale its business from selling 3,000 homes a year in 2017 to a peak of 39,000 a year in 2022. Could you talk about your long-term vision for Opendoor, you know, particularly in the context of what's happening in the broader U.S. housing environment today?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Sure.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Happy to. Maybe just sort of level set on, like, where we are today and the problem we're trying to solve, which is, if anyone's ever tried to sell their home, like 99% of people do today, you find an agent, you do a bunch of repairs on spec to get your home list ready. You put it on the market, you hold a bunch of open houses, people traipse through, you get rid of the kids and the dog. You hope you go into contract with somebody, you negotiate with them. One in four of those contracts fall through. You restart that process all over again, and hopefully, you end up selling your home. We're looking to change that.

We're trying to bring simplicity and certainty and ease to the real estate market and give people something that is simple, certain, fast, and so they can move with confidence onto whatever their next step is, which is usually another home, and allow you to be an efficient buyer because you know exactly what you have in hand in terms of home equity. So that's where we are today, but we are less than 1% of the market. Still, 99% of this market is offline, it's analog, it's uncertain, and it needs to be fixed. And so that's really the business we're in today. You asked, I think, where we're going and also where we fit in all this?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It's really just there. You know, today we are in 50 markets and, you know, offering our solution to customers, and we really want people to think of us first when they're starting their home-selling journey. They may decide they want to list the traditional way, which is fine, but come to us, get an offer, know exactly what your home is worth, and then evaluate from there.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. So a lot of people have traditionally thought of Opendoor as an iBuyer, and, you know, I think Opendoor has done a very good job of pursuing a bunch of initiatives to really expand their offering beyond just the core cash offer. Could you elaborate on, you know, what the customer journey looks like on Opendoor today? How has it changed relative to the early days of the business? You know, List with Opendoor, I think, has expanded to nearly all markets. So what's the right balance between, you know, traditional iBuying versus List with Opendoor or even something else when you think about products to help customers along their home buying journey?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah, I mean, you're right. I mean, we were having this conversation two years ago, what we really had to offer you was a cash solution, right?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

A cash offer, and that's right for a lot of our customers. It's not right for all of our customers. There's a segment of people who want to understand: What is my home worth if I put it on the market? They may have a little FOMO, like, what if I- what am I leaving on the table by not going through the traditional listing process? And we can allow them to engage in some structured price-discovery by listing on the market, but still retain the assurance of a cash offer, so today, you'll come to us, and you'll see two offerings. One is sell direct, and the other one is List with Opendoor, and if you choose the List with Opendoor option, we will partner you with an agent that we have prequalified and trained.

they will list that home on the market, and then if you decide at some point during that 30-day listing journey that, you know, you're not meeting expectations or time is not your friend, you can fall back to an Opendoor offer, and what we found is that, by giving people choice, we're building trust, and for when we have listed Opendoor alongside the cash offer, our Net Promoter Score is almost 10 points higher.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Wow!

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

And so early days, we got to all markets, as you said, most of all of our markets by the end of June. But we think that this will be an incremental product for us, accretive to conversion long-term, and it's certainly, I think, brand building. It's a better experience for the customer when they can kind of evaluate those two things.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, and maybe just as a follow-up to that, you know, Opendoor has several partnerships with organizations like eXp and Zillow and Redfin. Could you talk a little bit about the nature of those partnerships? Are they more about, you know, driving brand awareness and a top-of-funnel, "Hey, somebody's looking for a cash offer on Zillow," so that, you know, it can go to Opendoor? Or is it more, that real estate brokerage partnership model that you kind of talked about at the onset?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Or both?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It's all the above. We like all our partnership channels. In total, across agents, online, real estate, and homebuilders, it's north of 40% of our volume that we do today and growing, and the reason we like them is, number one, that's where sellers are. So we want to be anywhere sellers are. If you're thinking about buying a new home, but you have to sell your old home, we want to be there in that homebuilder, you know, community on a weekend, providing a solution to customers.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We want to be in an agent's pocket when they're thinking about showing their customer their alternative. I can list or I can sell direct and be done with it, and that might be the right solution. We want to be there, and we certainly want to be on Zillow. When you're trolling real estate late night, and you're thinking about alternatives, we want to show up for you, a de facto cash offer solution on the Internet.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So we love all those partnership channels. And we believe that our partners also recognize that consumers want the solution, and that's why they have partnered with us. And the reason to like those channels are not just for the coverage and the expansive footprint and the awareness it drives, but also for us, they're very efficient marketing channels.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

And so we really leaned into those in the last couple of years, and we'll continue to expand and grow them. All of them are important.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

That's great. Could you talk a little bit about Opendoor's acquisition strategy? You know, Opendoor is ramping up its business through more acquisitions after a softer period of acquisitions in 2023. What is your buy-box, and what does your model look like right now, and how has it evolved over time?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah. So I think at a high level, like, how are we gonna grow more and more acquisitions over time? How do we increase our top- of- funnel for Opendoor?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

There's probably three big levers. Number one is, like, people just need to know about us. We're still relatively... Well, we're not new, we're ten years old. Like, we need awareness, 'cause with awareness builds trust, and with trust, we build conversion. What we see in our markets where we have higher awareness, as much as 45% aided awareness in our most mature markets, conversion's one third higher than an immature market. Awareness really matters, and we have been shifting more and more of our marketing mix to drive brand and creative and really sort of tell the story of, like, why Opendoor, why start your selling journey here?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It's been really successful, and so even though total marketing spend for us has come down the last couple of years on the back of, you know, the malaise, I'll call it, that we've been seeing in the real estate market, we have seen brand awareness be at record levels for us, so that strategy has worked really, really well, and we'll continue to invest behind it, so that's top of funnel on awareness. The other thing is, we have seen in our markets year to date, one in four sellers, true sellers, have come to us, entered their address. That's great, one in four, so 28% of all sellers who either sold to Opendoor or chose to list on the market within 60 days, so high intent, right?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

That's how we measure it. True sellers have come to us and given us their information and engaged with us, not all, obviously, converted, and that's great, but, like, why, why not one in two? Why not all, right? Like, we want everyone to start their home journey with us. So awareness-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Doesn't hurt to get a cash offer, right?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Doesn't hurt to get a cash offer. You understand exactly where you are, and you can go from there. And so, again, building awareness for us drives conversion, drives trust, and so that's, like, one big lever. The other one is partnerships, which we just talked about. So just being everywhere sellers are and making sure we're the de facto, simple, certain, fast solution for them through the cash offer or through List with Opendoor. Like, we're actually trialing with one of our largest home builder partners now, a List with Opendoor solutions. Like, we want to be multi-product across everything eventually. And then the last thing I'd say is, like, just buy-box and markets. You asked me, like, where are you today?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We have four X'd our buy-box in the last, I guess, five years now, since 2019 . So today, you know, based on what we have in our models, we can comfortably underwrite $650 billion of serviceable addressable market, against, like, a $1.6 trillion real estate market. So we underwrite about 40% of it. So that's grown a lot, up four X, and we will continue to, like, look at where it makes sense to add more buy-box. It could be more ZIP codes, it could be price point, it could be, segments of the market, like maybe we don't do condos in market X.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Like, we'll continue to kind of build it, but certainly today we're not constrained by the buy-box we can underwrite. We've got lots of room. 50 markets today, that hasn't been a focus for us as of late. Over time, we want to be in most markets, if not all. 50, and you know, over time, that can expand as well.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. And just as a follow-up to that, you know, expanding to most markets over time, $650 billion of the $1.6 trillion opportunity. What do you look at in terms of characteristics of a market that makes it attractive to expand into or to include in your buy-box over time? Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah, I mean, number one is, you know, how do our models respond to that market, and can we underwrite with a reasonable band of accuracy?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So we take a lot of time to back test and make sure we have the right data, make sure we understand the nuances of that market.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Every market's got their own idiosyncrasies. So we want to spend some time there, and when we've opened markets historically, we have gone, I'd say, carefully. So we open it, and we spend a little bit of time buying some homes and seeing them go all the way from acquisition through to resale before we actually kind of turn on a lot of marketing and turn on a lot of inventory spend. So it's... I think one of the misperceptions of our business is, like, it only works in new housing stock. It only works in homogeneous. It works great in Phoenix, it's not gonna work in [audio distortion]. And the reality is, you know, we are in all kinds of markets. We're in heavy seasonal markets like Minneapolis, like snow on roofs in the winter. Like, how do you do physical assessments?

We have figured that out over time. We are in, you know, all sorts of price points. We're in different home types, and so it really does resonate. What we care about more is that we wanna be where we can underwrite with reasonable band of accuracy, and we wanna be where most of the transactions are happening. Like, we wanna be in that part of the distribution curve where, like, the most volume, the most activity, the most liquid.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. It's more about the data and the volume-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

More about the data.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

-of transaction.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It has a little bit to do with, like, we do look and make sure that there's enough labor, trade labor in that market for us to have enough share of wallet with them, that we can also renovate and repair efficiently.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. Great. If we could take a step back and maybe just talk about the U.S. housing market at large. Could you talk a little bit about Opendoor's outlook for the market this year and into next? You know, I think if you look at MBA data, they're looking for 4.2 million U.S. existing homes this year, going to 4.4 million next. Obviously, a long ways from the peak or the recent peak that we saw in 2021 , with 6.1 million. But what's Opendoor's outlook, and how does that inform your strategy?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah. Well, the market has certainly been a headwind the last couple years. We have not been swimming, you know, with the fishes, as they say. You know, on the seller side, sellers are locked into their current mortgage rates, by and large, and then they're loathe to give that up. So there's just a real, you know, paralysis in the seller community to kind of list on the market. And then you've got buyers who have sincere affordability challenges. So the market's been pretty frozen, and you referenced the four million-ish kind of-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

... annual transactions. Typically, over the last thirty years, you know, on average, five million people a year have moved. So if you think back the last couple years, you got two million people. Like, life is still happening, right? You're still moving, you're having kids, you're changing jobs. Like, all those things are still happening, and yet you are stuck. So the market is sort of in this state of being frozen. One of the things we talked about in Q2 is that, you know, the market for us has actually become softer in the back-half of this year, more so than we would have expected. I mean, the one thing we can count on in the housing market is that seasonality shows up every year, 'cause that's just consumer behavior, right?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I wanna move in the first half of the year, wanna get kind of, you know, set and get back to school, and, like, I'm less inclined to move in the back-half of the year. That's how transactions flow, but what we saw is seasonality showed up early this year, and it was, I'd say, more pronounced. Like, it rolled over, so that things were a little bit more negative than we would've seen. We look at two things. We look at the rate at which homes are going into contract. We call that clearance.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Clearance is actually 30% slower than it was last year, even. This, like, homes are not transacting quickly. They're staying on the market for much longer, and as many as one in four or one in five sellers are delisting. That is a decade-high for at least the time period we've been in the market.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So, people aren't talking about that a lot, but delistings is a real phenomenon right now that is, like, literally off the historical charts. People are not finding their prices, and they're leaving the market. And so there's this shadow book of inventory that I think is really weighing on-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

... transaction velocity and pricing. And then, you know, the back-half of the year, we expect always to be soft from a pricing standpoint. I'd say it's softer than we would have expected, and we have responded by widening our spreads and, you know, being more conservative on our pricing effectively, and that's really our expectations for the back-half of this year. You know, softer, slower, and smaller for us than we otherwise would have forecasted.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. That's really interesting. And could you just talk about, like, when you began to observe these trends of, like, lower clearance rates, higher rates of delisting? You know, what do you think that all means for home price appreciation? And maybe the answer is just more volatility, which is why there's the widening spread, but.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah, so first of all, when we talk about home prices, we really talk about month to month, and the world tends to talk about year- over- year.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We're in the month-to-month business, right? We're thinking about our exposure over a four, five, six-month period. And as I said, in the back-half of the year, home prices are always soft. They're flat zero, or they're modestly negative. They're a little bit more negative than that right now.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

That is sort of the expectation we're managing against right now for the balance of the year, really because we want to manage appropriately for risk first and manage for our balance sheet. The good news is we can reset our expectations every week. We reassess where we are giving offers, how we are managing our spreads, how we are meeting marketing. You know, we're watching clearance, we're watching velocity, we're watching home price trends, and you know, if and when they change, we can respond to that. That's our business model.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. How are you thinking about responding to interest rate changes over the remainder of the year and into next, right? I think the expectation is that we'll get 325 basis points cuts through then.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah, exactly. Listen, we all are hoping for rate relief and reduction. I think it feels like now the probability of that happening is higher than it's been certainly in the last couple of years. You know, we're not necessarily in the macroeconomic business.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I can't tell you for certain, like, what will that mean? But, you know, the hope is that it will unlock some sellers who have been frozen and, like, take the edge off some of the affordability pressure. And, we are set up very well to respond to that in the first part of next year.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

That's great. You know, putting it all together and kind of translating it back to the model, Opendoor has a target 5%-7% contribution margin for this year, and I think over the long-term as well. Maybe you can just start and talk about the components, you know, the unit economics that get you to that 5%-7%, and you know, your confidence in that being the right range for the long-term.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah. You know, we actually, two years ago, were operating more like 4%-6%, and we did two things. One is we took some costs out, and we also recognized it was healthier for us to manage to a higher margin target, hence the 5%-7%. We give ourself a range annually because quarter to quarter, just given seasonality, there is some variation. We want to be able to manage to that.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Hence the five to seven. To your question, is that the right range? We think it is for now. Over time, we would like to marry that with other ancillaries and increase the margin target, but, like, for the core business today, five to seven is what we're managing against. You asked, like, what goes into that? That is really, like, at a unit level, you know. You know, we bought it for here, we sold it for here, less our holding costs, less our transaction costs. What does that mean for overall margin? We want to be within that five to seven on a long-term annual basis.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. You know, Opendoor has done a really good job of managing OpEx. You know, last quarter, I think you guys drove $7 million in OpEx savings quarter on quarter through being more efficient with marketing and certainly some reduced hiring. Could you just expand a little bit more on your cost management efforts? How much more OpEx could we pull out of the operating model if we need to, right?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Mm-hmm.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

In response to housing,

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

You know.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah, no. I mean, I'd say the, the path to profitability has a lot to do with how we manage our cost structure, and we've been very focused on how do we deliver a more efficient cost structure over the last two years. And, kudos to our team. Like, we've taken out, on the total OpEx basis, I mean, there's some marketing spend in there, and that can go up and go down. But like, no, about 50% reduction in OpEx peak from 2022-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

to where we are today. And certainly, given where our volumes are trending today, we need to do more, and we can do more. So we're continuing to look at our cost structure to be more efficient. You're right, we're trending around $100 million a quarter. We actually took $35 million out annually, announced that last quarter through, by spinning out one of the businesses that we had incubated called Mainstay. So that was another benefit on the cost side, in addition to the seven you referenced, and so we'll get that annualized benefit, back-half of the year. But, something we're very focused on because the whole company is focused on, we need to be at a place where we are just adjusted income positive. That, for us, is basically operating free cash flow.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

And we know that. And so, at a time where, you know, volumes continue to be under pressure in this environment, we have to resize our cost structure to fit that.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. You mentioned Mainstay. I would love to learn a little bit more about that. You know, what was the strategic rationale for spinning off Mainstay? Why is now the right time? And for those that may not be aware, could you just talk about what Mainstay is?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yep.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yep. So for us, Mainstay is a market intelligence and data platform that really is, helps service the single-family rental REIT market. And it was a natural extension of what we do well today, which is we were, buying and selling homes with consumers, and we were also doing it for the REITs. And we could sell them some of our homes, and sometimes we were buyer of homes, and we were helping them, manage in that way. And we realized, like, we have, I would argue, probably more home data than anyone else in the country.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yep.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

You know, we collect a lot from home sellers. We also walk in a lot of homes, so like, many multiples more of what we actually acquire, we actually get to see, and we've been collecting that data in a structured way for ten years. We realized there was a way to extend that data advantage and allow REITs to have some access in the right way to that information. And so something we've been incubating for the last couple of years. They were of a size, scale, and like, product market fit where we had outside interest from investors, and I think it was sort of time to send Mainstay on its way, which is a good thing. We retained a significant chunk of the business, and so we'll continue to hopefully enjoy the, you know, its upside and value creation over time.

But for us, it allows us to really focus right now to 100% on the consumer business, simplify our cost structure. It just made sense to do it right now.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. That's really helpful. Just before we move on from OpEx, I just want to touch on marketing again. You talked about having more of a targeted model. Could you just elaborate a little bit more on, like, how you're going to toggle that marketing lever once the housing market begins to recover? Like, are these savings that you know, we'll see in the bottom line and it'll be durable? Will you lean more heavily into marketing as the housing market goes up because of the top-of-funnel opportunity?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Mm-hmm.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

What's the right way to think about that?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We want to be dynamic in how we think about our marketing investments. At one level, we want them to be durable, right?

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Because we're in the awareness growing business, and we want to make sure that we're continuing to invest in that. You know, if you think about when customers come to us, not everyone says yes, right? Initially, they take a first offer, and then they just decide not to transact. That's fine, but they convert over months or years after that, so 75% of our volume today is coming from customers who previously asked for an offer, didn't convert on the first time, but converted on a subsequent refresh. They might get 50 refreshes. That's fine.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So we will continue to invest in that marketing funnel, and make sure that we are re-engaging and like, have a really robust marketing life cycle because we have this incredible base of customers we retain and engage with over time. So marketing does go up and down for us at some level, though, with spreads. So when our spreads are really high and we're taking in less volume, some of that spend gets less efficient. There's a baseline level that we're going to maintain, but we will toggle at some level, like, depending on where we are in that spread cycle, the amount of investment we have. But long-term, like, building the brand and building consumer awareness is really important to us. So assuming as we're growing volumes, we should expect to grow marketing dollars.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. And, you know, having people come to Opendoor as the first destination, you know, certainly helps to give them some degree of price-discovery, right? There's no reason why, you know, their first stop shouldn't be Opendoor, at least to establish a floor, if nothing else-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We agree.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

-um-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We agree.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

on, you know, what they can get for selling a home.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

And the other part of marketing is just it's not all spend, right? So having our partnership channels be robust-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

That's right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

is a really important extension of our marketing power.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Do you feel like you have full coverage in terms of your partner brokerages in each of the markets that you operate in to, you know, have?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

No.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Oh-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

There's lots more to go get. I mean, like, we're in 90 home builders.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So we're in many, but not all. The more to do on the home builder side. We can certainly deepen our share within home builders. If you think about what has to happen with home builders, is not only is that top-to-top relationship important, but you know, the home sale associate selling a new-build home has to actually understand the proposition of Opendoor, and so we need to kind of go community by community from any of these home builders. There is more to get. There are thousands of agents out there.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

You know, two years ago, agents would have said, "Opendoor is trying to, like, take away my job." No, no, we're trying to make your job easier.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Like, come to a listing appointment, have an Opendoor offer in hand. You can still list the traditional way if that's what your customer wants to do, but the return on time for that agent is really high. If that furnishes the customer's needs, and that's what they want, that's a really easy transaction. And by the way, there's lots of things we can do for agents. We have things around a buy-box we can furnish them. We've got listings we can give them. So, like, it's a very symbiotic relationship that's important to us.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

There's thousands of them to go get over time. I hope my partnerships team is listening to this. Then, you know, online real estate, I mean, that's, you know, relatively smaller universe of folks, but, I think there's more to be done there over time for us, too. So, there are other channels. There's lenders, you know, other folks that we can deal with over time.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. I wanted to ask you about what you think the implications of the NAR settlement are. Obviously, buyer brokerage commissions are no longer required. I think it's more clear that they're negotiable. You know, it certainly feels like that should be a good thing as it relates to selling expenses on Opendoor's side.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Mm-hmm.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

At the same time, I wonder how much of the brokerage commission rate dictates the service fee, so to speak? I don't know if that would be true.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Yeah.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

So for us, it's a cost, right? To your point.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It's a meaningful cost. We talked about the 5%-7% contribution margin target.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Within there is an assumption that I am paying a buyer's agent for every home I'm selling because everyone's coming with an agent in tow.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Mm-hmm.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Fine. And so let's just say that's two and a half points of our cost structure, like, very meaningful. So, our expectation is this NAR settlement, where there's been a bifurcation of, you know, seller, you pay for your agent, buyer, you negotiate separately and pay for your agent, that will bring the overall buyer broker commission down over time. And we said that in. You know, we saw from April to August, you know, ten, fifteen basis points of compression on the commission side.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

For us, it's a cost, and it probably ultimately is a pass-through. So if I have, you know, that two and a half points becomes, just make up a number, becomes one, it's fine. My spreads just come down. My margin is an impact, but the overall cost of transaction for the consumer goes down.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Conversion gets better. Like, it's a win-win. Like, it's great. Anything that's good for the consumer is good for us. We're totally aligned with the consumer, and there should be less friction and less cost in transaction over time, and that's a good thing. Right now, there's a whole lot of confusion in the market on the part of agents, and understandably so. This has totally upended their world for how they get compensated, the kinds of conversations they need to have, and we're super sensitive to that. We have indicated, like, you know, if you're an agent and you come to us with the best offer, like, of course, we're gonna cover that agent's compensation. But right now, there's a lot of swirl in the market. It's gonna take a while for us to see where this all settles.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. And I know you gave the hypothetical, two and a half to one point zero. I mean, that's obviously-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. It'll be a lot of compression. But, I do think, you know, as buyers increasingly become educated about what they are paying their agent, there is no free lunch here. There has been this-

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

... understanding that, like, I didn't pay for my buyer's agent, it came out of the seller's pocket.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Oh, right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I just think, I think that's changing. Like, there's a lot of education that's happening. Like, open up the paper, right? You can't help but read about this almost every day. It's been very topical for consumers, and it'll start, I think, to change the narrative, and I'm sure there will be splintering of, like, how a buyer's agent might get compensated. Maybe you get paid for tours. Separately, you might get paid for this. Like, we'll see. We will follow the market on this. We have lots of homes to sell. People use agents typically to buy homes, and that's fine. But, oh, by the way, we have built the only direct e-commerce platform to buy a home in the country.

So if you are a buyer who doesn't feel like they need that agent, and you wanna come to us and buy an Opendoor home, like, that 2.5% can go back into your pocket. Like, we're not gonna charge you for it because we're not paying for it. And so we think there's long-term, huge strategic value in having built the only integrated direct transaction platform for real estate in this country to transact to buy your home. So.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. I want to leave a few minutes for audience questions, but before I do, maybe I'll sneak another one in. Could you talk a little bit about the role of, I guess, institutional investors play a role in, like, whether that be like SFRs-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Mm-hmm

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

... or, you know, fix and flips or anything like that? Is there a, you know, market opportunity or more meaningful market opportunity to lean more into those types of opportunities, you know, those types of things, where Opendoor is top of funnel, but you're really just serving as a marketplace to a group of institutional buyers on the other side?

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

It's been less of a focus as of late, and that is mostly because, like, the SFR folks have really pulled out of the market.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I mean, they are not very inquisitive right now. They're doing some, you know, build to rent with home builders and Scott and Phi. But in terms of, like, accessing the MLS and buying homes, like, we're really good at helping them with that. Like, Mainstay did a lot of that, and we're happy to help them do it still today. Like, we have the transaction platform to be able to do that in scale.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

And, certainly, we can leverage that, and we're happy to sell them our homes. But, today, they're just not in that market, given where their cost of capital is.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

We'll see if that changes.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. Why don't I see if there are any questions from the audience? All right, well, I'll ask a closing question. You know, as you, as you look out over the next five years, what are some of the things that you're most excited about for Opendoor as a company? You know, which products or initiatives that are in place today will, you know, we look back and say, like: Oh, that was, you know, the killer product-

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Right

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

... or the killer initiative? Yeah.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

I mean, I think the goal is, when we look back five years from now, like, the aha! that went on when we bought our groceries online for the first time, we called an Uber, we booked a flight online, we're like: God, that was so easy. Like, how did I ever do, like, picking up the phone or, like, going in there and shopping? Like, you should be able to sell your home online. Like, that's really what we wanna do. Like, how do we bring the power of technology to the real estate market and allow home sellers to transact with the same amount of convenience and certainty and ease? Like, it should be magical, right? This is, like, a really important transaction. It shouldn't be so hard.

Our mission, really, we talk about. We are powering life's progress, like, one move at a time. We have a lot of conviction that real estate's gonna move online as a result. Because people are very, very much wed now to, like, the ease of being able to transact online, and no reason that real estate can't go there. The things we're excited about is all the things you and I talked about. I mean, we have this incredible hook in this cash offer product, sell your home online in minutes, that people love, super high converting, you know, eighty plus Net Promoter Score. And we want to put it in front of all people and make sure it's top- of- mind when you start your home-selling journey.

And we have lots of other capabilities, whether it's the best home valuation data, whether it's the integrated transaction platform we built. We wanna build other ancillaries around that core, offering over time, so you can list your product with us, or list your home with us. There are other flavors of that that we can do over time. And certainly, we want to be profitable, Michael. Like, I mean, we're very focused on continuing to address our cost structure and, like, size it for the reality of where the market is today and where our volumes are. Because we know that when the market does come back and, you know, a little more neutral, maybe a little more positive, you know, we want to be in a place where we can take full advantage of that. So.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Great. That's an excellent place to wrap it up.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Great.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

It's been such a privilege to have you at our conference and to have you on stage. Thank you so much, Carrie.

Carrie Wheeler
CEO, Opendoor

Thanks, Michael.

Mike Ng
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

We appreciate it.

Powered by