Earnings Call: Q1 2021

Apr 29, 2021

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Ovintiv's 2021 First Quarter Results Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Members of the investment community will have the opportunity to ask questions and can join the queue at any time by pressing members of the media attending in a listen only mode today, you may quote statements made by any of the Ovintiv representatives. However, members of the media who wish to quote others who are speaking on this call today, we advise you to contact those individuals directly to obtain their consent. Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the expressed consent of Ovintiv. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Campbell from Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Campbell. Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q1 2021 conference call. This call is being webcast and the slides we will use today are available on our website atoventiv.com. Please take note of the advisory regarding forward looking statements at the end of our slides and in our disclosure documents filed on SEDAR and EDGAR. Following our prepared remarks today, we will be available to take your specific questions. As always, limit your time to one question and one follow-up as this allows us to get to more of your questions in a timely fashion. I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Doug Suttles. Thanks, Steve. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We're eager to share our results today on another strong quarter. Following our prepared remarks, as Steve said, we'll be available to take your questions. As outlined in our pre release a few weeks ago and again in today's results, our business continues to perform exceptionally well. We are rapidly paying down debt. We finished the quarter with less debt, generated significant free cash flow and exceeded our divestiture target with the announced sale of our Eagle Ford and Duvernay assets. Our Duvernay asset closed yesterday and our Eagle Ford sale is on track to close later this quarter. We weathered winter storm Yuri with minimal impacts in the quarter and no impact to our full year forecast. We are highly confident in our ability to deliver the plan we've laid out for 2021. Our 2021 outlook remains consistent with our investment framework and reiterates our key priorities of debt reduction, maximizing efficiencies and maintaining the scale of our business. What a difference a year makes. This time last year, in the face of the pandemic related destruction of global oil demand, we were making real time decisions to reduce capital spending, shutting in production and quickly implementing new safety measures to protect the health of our people. Despite the uncertainty, we were very confident we could not only manage the challenge, but emerge stronger and more efficient, positioning the company to thrive as demand for our products returned. We were prepared for volatility and our business had tremendous flexibility that aided our decision making. The proactive steps took a year ago have positioned us very well today and it is coming through in our results. In the first quarter, we delivered net earnings of $309,000,000 generated total cash flow of $890,000,000 and free cash flow of $540,000,000 These numbers are inclusive of $156,000,000 cash tax recovery that we received during the quarter. We expect 2021 to be our 4th consecutive year of free cash flow generation. Our capital investments came in lower than forecast at $350,000,000 as our teams continue to do a great job of offsetting limited inflationary pressures with new efficiencies and innovation. Our culture of innovation makes a difference in every part of our business, but is clearly evident in our operating performance. Our full year capital program of $1,500,000,000 screens us one of the best capital efficiencies in the E and P sector today. We've made incredible progress on driving costs out of the business and our culture of innovation is what drives and sustains this. Our multi basin portfolio provided stability to our production profile in the quarter. Like others, we were forced to temporarily shut in volumes earlier this year in Texas and Oklahoma in response to winter storm Yuri. But strong performance from the Montney and other base areas allowed us to maintain crude and condensate volumes of 198,000 barrels a day, in line with our original full year target of 200,000 barrels per day. In fact, on a full year basis, we expect to fully offset the effects of winter storm Yuri. Debt reduction remains our number one priority and we've made tremendous progress towards our total debt target of $4,500,000,000 During the quarter, we reduced our debt by $467,000,000 and ended the quarter with liquidity of $3,800,000,000 We've now dropped our debt by nearly $1,000,000,000 since mid year 2020, the last three quarters. As I mentioned, we have exceeded our $1,000,000,000 divestiture target. Yesterday, we closed the sale of our Duvernay asset and we expect the Eagle Ford to close later this quarter. These proceeds will go directly to debt repayment. Based on a $50 WTI oil price and $2.75 NYMEX gas price, which looks conservative compared to today's strip, we expect our total debt to be less than $5,000,000,000 by year end and expect to reach our $4,500,000,000 debt target in the first half of next year. We expect to generate free cash flow of about $1,500,000,000 in 2021 if we use pricing consistent with today's strip for the remainder of the year. Our longer term framework remains intact with a leverage target of 1.5 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA or lower and a reinvestment rate of less than 75%. Factoring in the impact of asset sales, we expect our full year crude and condensate production to average approximately 190,000 barrels per day. We had no capital allocated to either the Duvernay or the Eagle Ford this year, so our planned capital investments for 2021 remain unchanged at approximately $1,500,000,000 Strong environmental performance and continuous improvement was demonstrated again this quarter with our venting and flare in volumes coming in below 0.4% of gas sales. I'll now turn the call over to Corey. Thanks, Doug. As Doug mentioned, we're positioned to generate about $1,500,000,000 in free cash flow in 2021 at current prices. This will allow us to reduce debt, improve leverage ratios and repay our upcoming bond maturities with cash on hand. When you combine the proceeds from our asset sales and the free cash flow we expect to generate, we should have enough cash to pay both of our upcoming debt maturities, the first of which is par callable starting August and repay a significant amount of any short term commercial paper or revolver balance. We are very pleased with the acceleration of our debt repayment strategy. We know this is the best thing we can do for our shareholders and this has been reflected in the performance of our equity year to date. Our 2021 outlook equates to reinvestment rate of about 60% of cash flow at $50 WTI oil and $2.75 NYMEX natural gas. And at current strip pricing, the reinvestment rate is just above 50%. Over the longer term, we will continue to steward our business to a leverage ratio of 1.5 times net debt to EBITDA or less at mid cycle prices. We think this level of leverage is appropriate for an E and P company and consistent with an investment grade credit rating. The credit rating agencies have taken notice of the strong outlook for our business and the acceleration of our debt reduction efforts. As such, we have recently received positive credit rating outlook changes from all of the rating agencies. And as a reminder, our strong financial performance is further bolstered by our declining legacy cost profile. We have again outlined the cost trajectory in the appendix where on a cumulative basis, you will see approximately $1,800,000,000 of legacy cost reductions from 2021 to 2025 when compared with our 2020 run rate. There is no risk associated with these cost reductions. They simply roll off over time, improving our cash flows. I'll now turn the call over to Greg Givens. Thanks, Corey. We continue to deliver industry leading well cost reductions in our core three assets. The recovery in the global economy has led to increased demand for fuel as well as other raw materials. And as a result, we did see modest cost inflation during the quarter on commodities like diesel and steel. Our centralized supply chain management team anticipated these cost increases. Their efforts in procurement and contracting along with operational efficiencies in the field allowed us to fully mitigate the impact of cost inflation during the quarter. Year to date well costs in the core three assets were either in line with or below our full year targets. These costs are roughly 12% lower compared to 2020. Despite continued pressure on select items, we fully expect to meet or beat our capital guidance of $1,500,000,000 for the year. We entered the year with significant operational momentum across all of our assets. During the Q1, our teams continue to deliver pace setting spud to rig release times and record lateral lengths. In the Permian, drilling efficiency gains and simul frac completions continued to drive our strong performance in the play. This included a new drilling pacesetter with less than 7 days spud to rig release time. In the Anadarko, we had another record of cost performance. In the STACK, D and C costs averaged dollars excuse me, dollars 4.40 per foot, about 4% lower than our full year 2021 guidance and 8% lower than our 2020 average. The team also achieved a record operational quarter with a 9 day average spud to rig release time and a 6.2 day pacesetter well. In the SCOOP, we brought on 5 Springer wells in the quarter with average D and C costs of $5,200,000 per well with oil performance exceeding type curve expectations. Moving north to the Montney, our D and C cost averaged $3.80 per foot or 16% below the 2020 program average. Approximately 80% of our Montney wells were completed using simulfrac technology. We've been very pleased with the application of this technology in the play and the consistency of the well results. The graphs on this slide are a good representation of the level of drilling efficiency that we are achieving today across the portfolio. Today, we are not only developing our acreage with longer laterals, but we are doing so in a significantly shorter amount of time. We were very excited to see the start up of the Howard County wet sand facility during the quarter. With this mine, our world class supply chain management and operations teams have secured a low cost and low risk source of sand in the Permian without using our capital. We have exclusive rights to the mine, which is expected to supply sand to about 2 thirds of our Permian operations. This will reduce our exposure to inflationary pressures and lower our completion costs. We are expected to source sand at around $0.016 per pound from the new mine. That translates to roughly $100,000 of savings per well in the Permian. There are also significant environmental and logistical advantages. We expect the mine will reduce our annual truck mileage in Howard County by about 80%. It will also reduce our CO2 emissions by about 200 tons per well. We are continually pursuing efficiency initiatives like this throughout our operations. I'll now turn the call over to Brendan, who will speak more to the role that technology and innovation are playing across the company. Thanks, Greg. As Greg has just pointed out, our efficiency gains are continuing in 2021. We often get asked about how we consistently deliver these gains. We look for efficiency in everything we do and our entire team is relentless about innovating to make our business better. This is a key part of our culture to identify what limits our performance today and then unleash innovation and technology to eliminate those barriers. There are several recent examples of this across the company. Our supply chain management team is harnessing data analytics and machine learning. This approach streamlines our back office work, but it also gives our team direct visibility into pricing for comparable products and services across our portfolio, allowing our team to drive down costs. Our drilling and completion teams are updating their designs in real time using proprietary mobile apps to access and visualize live data. This translates to fewer days on location and more effective completions, driving lower costs and better wells. And our production operations teams are using cloud based technology to optimize chemical pump rates and gas lift compression. Our proprietary code behind this automation works in combination with our operating control center, which provides 20 fourseven surveillance and automation of our wells and facilities. This translates to lower LOE and higher uptime. Each of these innovations plays a role and in combination they add up to meaningful value. We've created a capability where we break down complex problems and find ways to make things work better. It's happening in every part of our business from drilling, Simulfrack wet sand, artificial lift to how we market our products into our supply chain. The most powerful part of this approach is that every person at the company can contribute. We see this as a competitive advantage. It's a big part of the reason we're confident we can deliver on our 2021 targets. I'll now turn the call back to Doug. Thanks Brendan. Ovintiv remains at the forefront of our industry's transition to a new, more sustainable business model. We believe we have all of the components to deliver differentiated returns to our shareholders. We are on track to deliver free cash flow for the 4th consecutive year. We are committed to a disciplined approach to allocating capital and are on track to deliver free cash flow, significant free cash flow for the 4th consecutive year. We remain committed to returning cash to our owners. We believe our dividend is a key component to returning cash to shareholders and we did not touch it through the challenges of 2020. In the near term, we believe strongly that the best way to increase value for our shareholders is through reducing our debt and we've talked extensively on the significant progress we've made over the past three quarters and the progress we expect to make over the balance of the year. We are committed to industry leading ESG performance. Our teams are incredibly focused on reducing emissions and using technology and innovation to unlock further gains. Our flaring and venting volumes have dropped dramatically over the last 12 to 18 months and are today amongst the lowest in the industry and well below limits being discussed in many jurisdictions. And we are on track to deliver early on our 33% methane intensity reduction target. We believe reducing emissions is the first and most important role of our industry today in addressing climate change, and we are and intend to remain a leader in this area. We also see tremendous opportunity to accelerate industry efforts through collaboration with our peers. Efficiency has and always will be crucial in our business and we have the proven ability to drive leading efficiencies and continuously improve to enhance returns, grow margins and generate free cash flow. We do this in many ways, but none are more important than innovation. Our operational excellence and sophisticated risk management are differentiated and continue to create value quarter over quarter. Finally, we have the size and portfolio diversity necessary for future success. Our world class Core 3 assets in the Permian, Anadarko and Montney provide multi basin and commodity diversification, cross basin learnings and more than a decade of inventory at our current development pace. This concludes our remarks. And operator, we'd be now we'd be happy to take questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session and go to the first caller from Neil Mehta at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Good morning, team. Congrats on a great quarter. It's great to see the debt reduction timeline accelerated and the path to incremental shareholder returns improved. When you discuss various for returning capital to shareholders once you get your balance sheet in good shape, how are you thinking about increasing base dividend versus implementing a variable dividend of sorts or share buyback program? Is there any method that you think screens more attractively? And at the forward curve, when do you think we're going to be in a position to start having these conversations? Yes. Good morning, Neil. Thanks for joining us on your question. And by the way, I just like the question because it recognizes the progress we've made on debt and it sounds like the confidence folks have that we'll continue to make that progress. I think the first thing I'd say though is we need to get to our debt target of 4.5. It's clearly accelerating, clearly getting closer, but we need to make sure we get there. Then I'd add just three things. First, as we've said many times, with our Board, we're discussing a number of options and nothing is off the table. But I would emphasize 2 things. We believe the base dividend is absolutely core to our offer to shareholders. I mentioned that despite the challenges last year, we didn't touch our dividend. Our shareholders could count on that check every quarter and it showed up every quarter. But it's a core component of the offer and we need to make sure it's set in the right place that it's sustainable, but it also is a consistent source of cash returned directly to shareholders. And the second thing we need to assess is, is 4.5 the right level of debt or should we actually take it further? So more on this in the future. Clearly, we're making great progress here, but we need a bit more time to mark our progress and then continue these assessment. But I would highlight that, that base dividend and making sure our debts in the right place are probably the 2 highest priorities we have. Thanks, Doug. And then turning to the assets, it seems like you're allocating more activity towards the SCOOP region of your Anadarko Basin assets relative to past. Is there a scenario for greater liquids uplift as a result? And just can you provide some color around the cost efficiencies you expect to see there given while costs traditionally have been higher in that part of the country? Yes. I think first, we have a obviously, our bigger position is up in the STACK than the SCOOP. And but we have and we'll continue to develop the SCOOP, but the inventory is more limited. So we'll be doing this as it makes sense. But our efforts there like our efforts other where are actually continuing to unlock new locations, which is encouraging. But the costing is pretty amazing. It wasn't very long ago when SCOOP wells were $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $13,000,000 And as you heard Greg talk about, he just talked about $5,200,000 But maybe I'll hand over your question about efficiencies to Greg here. Yes. Thanks for your question. And we're continuing to see the same kind of efficiency improvement. We're continuing to see the same kind of efficiency improvement in the quarter. We're continuing to see the same kind of efficiency improvement in the quarter, the impact that innovation is having on our results and our performance. And we've got a high connectivity across the whole team into solving these problems. And I'll just maybe use the winter storm Yuri as an example. And one of the things I spoke on a few minutes ago was the proprietary code we've developed to automate our gas lift systems. And so as that storm began to hit and then impact operations in Texas and Oklahoma, the automated controls on those gas lift systems were a big part of helping us keep production on longer and then bring it back on sooner as a result because it meant that we didn't have to have boots on the ground at every well site and facility in the field. We were able to drive that autonomously through our centralized control room. And so this has been a backbone that we've been building in the company for a long period of time. And so now the expertise that's being deployed against it is adding new sophistication as we go. Great. Thanks for that. And I was wondering, just given your deep knowledge in the basins you're in, not to mention basins you have past experience in. I mean, do you envision I guess I'm thinking especially about real time completion data. Do you envision that or other tools having the ability to possibly expand the footprint of any of your plays? I'm just thinking about some of the more complex geology in the stack or just deposition so thin that it wouldn't be practical to pursue them before, but now actually might be workable? Yes. No, it's actually a great question. It's actually pretty strategic as well. If you look at we kind of maybe all of us in the industry kind of maybe don't quite appreciate what we've accomplished over the last 5, 6, 7 years. We've taken a new play concept to make it one of the biggest sources of supply of oil and natural gas in the world and leading efficiencies in doing that and on almost every front, whether that's about cost or whether it's about emissions and other things. And it's all driven by innovation. It's all driven by constantly thinking about new ideas. It's that old Wallace Pratt, who is a famous geologist 80 years ago, who had a great saying, which is, oil is not found in the ground, it's found in the minds of men and women, which is what you see happening every day. But what we've been able to do and the STACK is a fantastic example of it, clearly a play that was out of favor. But through innovation, Greg highlighted the movement of learnings across the portfolio. We've got a play which generates competitive returns with any play. And tied to your question, we are now drilling in areas which just a few years ago you would have not thought would have justified the application of capital. And that's a combination of what we've been able to do on cost. Your earlier question about using big data to understand what drive results, a lot of that now is about completion design. There's still a great deal of learning happening about how to make a better well, and it's a lot more than just pump a lot more sand. It's how you actually execute that job and design that job. And what it's doing is, it is unlocking new opportunities within our portfolio. Our inventory essentially right now stays flat every year, because through this application of innovation, technology and cost reduction, we unlock new opportunities at least of the scale of the ones we drilled in the last year, creating a bit of a perpetual motion machine in this space. Now it won't go forever, but this rate of innovation, I do not expect stop, because at least in our company is why people come to work every day is to be a part of that and to drive it. Great. Thanks a lot. Thank you. At this time, we have completed the question and answer session. And we'll turn the call back over to Mr. Campbell. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your coverage and investment in our company. Have a great day. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.