Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 10, 2021

Good morning, and welcome to Blue Owl Capital Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. During the presentation, your lines will remain on listen only. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I'd like to advise all parties that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to En Dai, Head of Investor Relations for Blue Owl. Thanks, operator, and good morning to everyone on the call today. Joining me this morning are Doug Ostrover, our Chief Executive Officer Mark Lipschultz and Michael Riesch, our Co Presidents and Alan Kirschenbaum, our Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind our listeners that remarks made during the call may contain forward looking statements, which are not a guarantee of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that are outside the company's control. Actual results may differ materially from those in forward looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in Blue Owl Capital's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements. We would also like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release available on the Investor Resources section of our website at blueowl.com. This morning, we issued our financial results for the Q2 of 2021 and reported adjusted fee related earnings or FRE of $0.10 per share and adjusted distributable earnings or DE of $0.09 per share. We also declared a dividend of $0.04 per share payable on September 8 to shareholders of record as of August 24. We'll be referring to the earnings presentation throughout the call today, so please have that on hand. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Doug. Thank you, Ann. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our first Blue Owl earnings call. We are very appreciative of the time that you're taking to join us on our call today and we look forward to seeing you all in person, hopefully sometime soon. Given that this is our first earnings call, I thought I would start with a brief introduction to the Blue Owl story and highlight our vision for the combined platform and the tremendous growth we see ahead. Mark and Michael will then provide their perspectives on what we're seeing across the industry before providing color on business performance for direct lending and GP Solutions. From there, Alan will cover our financial results, and then we will be happy to take any questions. So let me start with a very high level view of Blue Owl's position in the marketplace. We are a leading solutions provider to the private markets with $62,000,000,000 of assets under management, of which $8,500,000,000 does not yet earn fees, but will once that capital is deployed. And notably, 97% of our management fees come from permanent capital. So we have very high visibility into our earnings growth over the next 6, 12 and even 18 months. We support the entire ecosystem of alternative asset managers through 2 businesses, direct lending, where we provide capital to sponsors to finance their portfolio companies and GP Solutions, where we provide capital to the alternative asset managers themselves. Essentially, we are selling the picks and shovels to the industry. Or said another way, we are the equivalent of SaaS providers to the alternative asset management space. Our long term goal is to continue to expand meaningfully in these businesses and add additional capabilities that also fit this mandate of serving the private markets ecosystem. As I think about the market landscape for Blue Owl today, I see 2 businesses which are primed to benefit greatly from the continued growth in the alternative asset management industry. We remain in a historically low rate environment with investors searching for incremental yield and increasingly expanding their allocations to alternative assets. As the alternatives world expands further, we expect Blue Owl to continue to take market share as we provide capital solutions to these more mature larger segments of the industry. What we've also seen is that during challenging markets such as the financial crisis of 2,008, the managers with experienced investment teams and strong track records attract the most capital as investors protect their portfolios. We firmly believe Blue Owl will fall into that category as well. In addition to the strong growth we see ahead for each of direct lending and GP solutions on we see significant opportunities for synergies between the two businesses. Today, we have just 2% overlap in our LP base, which tells us 2 things. One, that our combined reach across the investor universe has grown dramatically through this transaction and 2, that there are many opportunities for us to introduce our LPs to unique yield and return opportunities that they may not have had on their radars. We also see the potential for synergies on the investment side as there will be times when direct lending can bring unique investment opportunities to GP Solutions and vice versa, translating into additional value for our limited partners and shareholders. Given that some in the audience may be newer to the Blue Owl story, let me back up and provide a brief history of our businesses. I'm going to start with Alrock. We started Alrock with the goal of building 1 of the premier firms in direct lending. We saw a meaningful opportunity in the upper middle market lending space and knew that we could raise a significant amount of capital to address that opportunity. We were confident that we could leverage our combined market experience and relationships to build a wide funnel of deals, select those with the best risk reward opportunities, create downside protection through disciplined risk management, and ultimately generate strong returns for our investors. And we thought by doing all of that, we could create an institutional quality, best in class lending platform. Over the past 5.5 years, I think we've certainly achieved that goal. Our ability to deliver timely and flexible solutions in scale has resonated with the market as we have originated $35,000,000,000 of loans since we started our business. We've established ourselves as a leading competitor in the upper middle market lending space with over $31,000,000,000 of AUM and our strict underwriting, strong covenants and focus on portfolio diversification have resulted in industry leading returns for our investors. Unexpected test for our platform, much as it was for the broader U. S. And global economies. And we as a firm made it through this very difficult period exceptionally well. The $35,000,000,000 we have originated has been across 300 investments and we have had only 2 realized losses of original principal through June 30 with notional on those investments of just $255,000,000 or less than 1% of what we've originated and we still own both of those investments. This speaks to the quality and resiliency of the portfolio. We have built 1 of the largest dedicated direct lending investment teams in the industry with nearly 70 investment professionals, including 23 Managing Directors with average experience of 20 years. And despite the impressive growth that we've experienced in our direct lending business since we launched 5.5 short years ago, I truly believe the best is still ahead. Now turning to GP Capital Solutions. Dial is the clear leader in its market, having founded the industry and taken stakes in over 50 alternative asset management firms since inception, and that number continues to grow. In addition to providing growth capital for new and existing businesses, Dial offers great strategic value to its partner managers through its business services platform team and also offers debt financing solutions. The partner managers collectively manage roughly $1,000,000,000,000 of AUM giving Dial a unique and very broad perspective on trends in the alternative asset management industry. We will endeavor to share the insights we garnered from this special perch with you. I think Michael and the team have built a terrific business and it really fits well with what we focus on at Alrock. We want to be market leaders in a space. We look for unique value propositions that allow us to generate strong performance for our investors and we like businesses where we can create scale, The dial business falls into all of those categories. Shifting now to Blue Owl's financial profile and Alan is going to cover this in greater detail later in the call. We've had the benefit of watching what other companies in our space have done and we've seen what works and what doesn't. We believe the market has told us that it values a steady and predictable earnings stream with high growth potential and that's exactly what we offer at Booall. FRE currently constitutes 100% of our earnings, meaning our revenues come from management fees, which are highly predictable each year. When it comes to AUM, we are not on the hamster wheel raising capital because when we raise incremental AUM, we keep it since almost all of our AUM is permanent. We are not required capital to investors. We like to think of it as a layer cake. As we raise capital, we just add a new layer of capital to our existing permanent capital base. Unlike most alternative asset managers, we don't have to raise 20,000,000,000 dollars to grow our AUM by $10,000,000,000 since capital doesn't leave the system. And that's a big differentiator for our platform. Because of this, we have industry leading growth generated from highly visible drivers and best in class profitability and FRE margins. We have a track record of investment outperformance and diversified and growing distribution capabilities across the institutional investor and retail distribution channels. We offer a healthy 2.5 percent dividend yield based on our June 30 closing stock price and we're hopeful that our quarterly dividend could double by the Q4 of next year. Our balance sheet is strong with almost $600,000,000 of liquidity, and we are committed to maintaining our investment grade ratings over time. And importantly, we have an industry leading fully aligned management team. We did not sell any shares in the transaction and we own about 25% of BLUAL outstanding shares, so we are well aligned with our shareholders. In addition, we as a management team have personally invested a substantial amount into our funds, meaning we are also very aligned with our LPs. Internally, we have an undertaking that we call Project BrightBlue, which has 3 primary objectives. 1, we want to out perform the FRE expectations set forth for us. 2, we'd like to pursue strategic acquisitions that complement our current best in class businesses and 3, we would like to trade at parity with or better than our closest peers in the public markets. If we can achieve these objectives, we believe we can drive significant shareholder value over the course of the next few years. Finally, before I turn the call over to Mark, I'd be remiss if I didn't spend a moment on something that carries a lot of weight for us as a management team, which is culture. We built our firm on a culture of being entrepreneurial and nimble and treating everyone with respect. As we've grown, we've spent a lot of time and effort focused on maintaining these core tenants, And we believe it has been and will continue to be a key differentiator for BuWao in our investment performance and our financial results. With that, I will turn it over to Mark and Michael, who will provide their perspectives on the state of the alternatives industry today, and then we'll cover business performance for the quarter. Thank you very much. Mark, I'll turn it over to you. Great. Thanks, Doug. I'd also like to extend a warm welcome to our new and prospective public shareholders. One of the questions we get most often when we meet with shareholders now is this, how do we expect the alternatives industry to continue to evolve and how does Blue Owl's business fit within that evolution? So before I provide some background on our direct lending business and talk about where we're going, I thought I'd take a step back and share some thoughts on the broader alternatives industry. I think you all know well the tailwinds that support the continued growth for alternative asset managers. Investors are looking for attractive risk adjusted returns in a market where that can be very hard to find. Allocations to alternatives have continued to rise as investors realize they can trade some amount of liquidity for excess returns and for what we believe is a much better overall risk adjusted return. As more traditional alternative products such as private equity and real assets have grown, new alternatives market segments such as direct lending, GP minority stakes and secondaries and co investments have really emerged and flourished. At a high level, Blue Owl's role in the market is to provide capital to the alternatives ecosystem, which continues to expand in size, scale and complexity. And while the larger alternatives industry continues to grow at a robust 12% average annual growth rate, areas such as direct lending and GP minority stakes are expected to grow even more quickly. So let's break that down for direct lending. By some estimates, there is $1,500,000,000,000 of dry powder just in private equity alone and $3,300,000,000,000 across private markets more broadly with more being raised every day. Now compare that to the size of the entire direct lending market with just over $300,000,000,000 total across drawdown funds and public and private BDCs. When you consider that direct lending continues to take market share within the credit space, that suggests some very strong growth ahead for the direct lending industry with great visibility, which really brings me to the background on Owl Rock. So when we came up with the idea of building a market leader in growing direct lending and formed Alaroc, we set some very big goals for ourselves. Sitting here today, I think we have both met and surpassed those goals. We've grown our direct lending AUM to $31,000,000,000 in under 6 years, And the strong pace of growth reflects the demand we've seen from LPs for the products that we offer and the need for capital in the companies in which we invest. It also shows investors great need for yield in this market environment. Today, we offer 4 investment strategies, our largest being diversified lending with $20,000,000,000 of AUM. We also have dedicated technology, 1st lien and opportunistic lending strategies, each of which is growing very nicely. We believe our technology lending strategy, which we launched back in 2018 and has now grown to over $6,000,000,000 in AUM, is already the market leader in providing structured solutions to the upper middle market technology industry. There continues to be a tremendous opportunity for tech, particularly given the outstanding 13.5 percent net IRR for our Teck BDC with 0 losses since inception and not a single non accrual. Now it's one thing to raise large pools of capital and another to put it to work in a disciplined thoughtful way. While we've originated 35 $1,000,000,000 of loans since inception, with gross originations over $5,000,000,000 this quarter alone, I think it's notable that our broad ecosystem allows us to be extremely selective in the deals that we do. To provide some context, we've looked at over 5,800 deals since inception, and just over 300 of those have made it to the finish line. We have a very wide funnel for deals that continues to grow, but we invest in only the highest conviction investment opportunities that we see, which is about 5% of the deals reviewed. Our discipline and diligence doesn't end there. We perform rigorous portfolio monitoring with a focus on capital preservation, and we will remain in continuous close with the sponsors and the management teams. This meticulous focus on downside protection and portfolio management really worked to our advantage as the U. S. And global economy shut down during the COVID-nineteen pandemic. The fact that we were often the only lender for a borrower or one of a few made it easier to provide dedicated support and to have timely comprehensive discussions about liquidity, covenants and potential credit events that could arise from this unprecedented situation. We made it through the pandemic thus far with very strong performance. We have had only 2 realized losses associated with a total of $255,000,000 notional value in loans relative to the $35,000,000,000 of origination in our firm's history. Ultimately, the pandemic was a very important test for our platform that we fortunately passed with flying colors thus far. Across the direct lending platform, annualized realized losses have been just 5 basis points since the inception of our firm, outperforming what investors can get in the public markets and putting us amongst the very top of our peer group. Looking ahead, and I don't mean to sound Pollyannaish about our growth prospects, but we really do see tremendous runway to continue expanding our direct lending business. We've grown to $31,000,000,000 of AUM, but we're still very small relative to total market opportunity. And our pipeline looks very strong. Sponsors like our business model because we can provide flexible and bespoke lending solutions at scale. We can act quickly and we have permanent capital, so borrowers and sponsors don't have to worry about our funds coming to the end of their investment periods. We're singularly focused on lending, which means we are not competing with their private equity businesses. And if their portfolio companies need to borrow more to do a transaction or fund incremental growth, that's easy for us to do because we've been in constant dialogue and we can underwrite something in a very timely fashion. So there are a number of avenues that will drive our future growth. 1 is expansion of our sponsor relationships. We have over 500 relationships today, and we expect that number and depth to increase meaningfully, in part due to the synergies we see with the GP Capital Solutions business. As for our existing relationships, we expect to grow with them as the sponsors raise larger funds and expand their product offerings. In addition, we believe the direct lending as an asset class will continue to expand meaningfully as borrowers see the benefits of having that 1 on 1 relationship, which was very clearly on display during the pandemic. And we will certainly continue to pursue adjacent opportunities in terms of future growth, new product launches and new investment strategies. With that, please let me turn it to my partner, Michael, discuss the GP Solutions business in more detail. Thank you, Mark. Let me start by framing the market opportunity in the GP Solutions space and provide some additional color about the history of the Dial business, and then I'll spend a minute on how the business is doing and where we're going from here. Since our founding in 2010, the Dial team recognized the tremendous growth in the alternative segment and saw a need for growth capital to assist founders and management teams in achieving their business objectives. We launched the Dial business to be the premier provider of such capital. The strong growth in the alternatives industry and the overall private markets was driven by institutional investors increasing their adoption rate for the products that these firms offer. With the industry's maturation, the need for our type of growth capital has only increased. We believe that these great businesses, investors in private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real estate and other similar strategies will continue to play a major role in the investment portfolios of institutions and individuals for decades to come. And we want to be the leading provider of capital at the GP level for this industry. Our business model is quite simple. We raise permanent capital funds, we're raising our 5th as we speak, and we invest this money into passive minority stakes in the leading companies in the alternative investment space. We typically take passive minority stakes between 10% 25%, which allows the investors in our funds to participate in what we believe to be the attractive economics of these businesses. For BlueVial shareholders, the ability to continue to raise funds to address this market opportunity drives our fee income and we see a very attractive runway ahead. Across our five funds, we have over 50 minuteority states and we believe we are the market leader in this category. The overall private market industry totals about $7,500,000,000,000 in AUM and is expected to approximately double in 5 years. As leading players in this market seek to grow and expand their business, they will require capital to invest in their funds, to seed new strategies and to grow their assistance to the firms we invest in. The initial catalyst for an investment might be a firm's need for capital, but once on board, our partner managers also benefit greatly from our business services platform, which is a team of 40 employees dedicated to helping and supporting the growth of our partner managers. Through this business services platform, we have created an ecosystem to support Dios partner managers in building their institutional networks and seeking to deliver best in class capabilities across all aspects of their business. The feedback on this platform has been extremely positive and we believe it has contributed greatly to our market leading position. Our investment pipeline has been very strong and we've been putting capital to work quickly. Notably, we've already committed approximately 30% of the capital that we expect to raise for Dial Fund 5 through 4 investments, and we only held our first closing for that fund last November. We have a number of other attractive investments that we hope to complete throughout the balance of 2021. Our performance in the strategy for our fund investors has been extremely strong with a net IRR of 24% for Dial Fund III, which had its final close in 2016, and a net IRR of 62% for Dial Fund IV, which had its final close in 2019. For our current fund, Fund 5, we've already seen quite significant early results with the portfolio already marked 20% above where our capital was put to work. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant runway for this business as private markets continue to grow at a robust pace as institutional investors continue to allocate to this pace and as retail and high net worth investors increase their allocations to alternatives. In addition to this strategy, we're in the process of launching and growing funds focused on GP lending, co investments and secondary investments, all of which will complement our existing minority equity investment strategy and benefit greatly from the deep relationships we have with the private market firms across all of Blue Owl. Finally, we kicked off our business unit focused sports and media industries. Style Home Court, our fund focused on taking minority stakes in teams within the National Basketball Association, launched and has 2 existing minority investments, 1 with the Phoenix Suns and 1 with the Sacramento Kings. With that, I will turn things over to Alan to discuss our financial results. Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start off by, first, pulling the lens back and framing our business for everyone. Then I'll take us through the relevant numbers and metrics for this quarter. When I get to the numbers, I'll make references to pages in our earnings presentation, which we posted to our website this morning. So please feel free to have that available to follow along. At a high level, we have a very simple business model. 1, we earn management fees to manage our BDCs and funds, which are highly predictable cash flow streams. 2, we don't have the volatility of carried interest revenues. And so at one level, the performance of our funds doesn't matter to BlueOwl shareholders. Of course, we care very deeply about how our funds perform. But unlike other alts managers, the returns of our funds do not really matter to our BlueOwl shareholders. That said, our strong performance has continued to support our fundraising goals. And 3, virtually all of the capital we manage is permanent. This also helps provide significant visibility into future earnings. Now to break all of this down a little more, we are a 100% of our business. Our revenues come from steady, consistent, predictable management fee cash flow streams. We have built a strong high cash flowing business. 97% of our management fees are from permanent capital. When we raise capital, it's like a layer cake, adding to our existing AUM. We are not on a hamster wheel having AUM fall away every quarter. We demonstrate best in class growth and best in class EBITDA and FRE margins. We expect to pay a strong competitive quarterly dividend with the potential to double our dividend by the Q4 of next year. We have a very strong balance sheet with a significant amount of liquidity. We are well aligned with our Blue Owl shareholders. We as a management team hold about 25% of the outstanding shares of Blue Owl and we are well aligned with our BDC shareholders and LPs across our platform as we have personally invested a substantial amount into our products. To also touch on the key drivers of our short and intermediate term growth, these include 1, deploying the capital that we've raised as we generally earn management fees on the total assets of our funds for direct lending 2, some of the products moving to full fees after their initial fee discount period like our technology BDC product and 3, raising new equity capital in products like Dial Fund 5. Okay. So let's get into some of the numbers and financial metrics of our business. Overall, we continue to be on track with the guidance we have previously provided for 2021 2022. As a reminder, our reported results include numbers for only half the quarter for GP Solutions since the transaction closed approximately halfway through the 2nd quarter, while for direct lending, we are reflecting numbers for the full quarter. Turning off on Slide 10, in the adjusted 2Q 'twenty one column, if we were to reflect the GP Solutions numbers on a full quarter basis as if the transaction closed on April 1, 2021, our total revenues would have been $210,000,000 total expenses 78,000,000 fee related earnings, dollars 130,000,000 or $0.10 per share and distributable earnings, dollars 108,000,000 or $0.09 per share. We believe this is a better indication of the full earnings power of our business for this quarter. And I will reiterate our expectation to grow our distributable earnings by over 25% next year as we continue to raise and deploy capital across the platform. Our adjusted EBITDA margin and our FRE margin were both 62% this quarter, assuming a full quarter for the Dial business, making good progress towards our target range of 65% to 70%. And our adjusted compensation expense as a percentage of total adjusted revenue was 29% this quarter, assuming a full quarter for the Dial business, already inside of our target range of 25% to 30%. Moving on to our AUM numbers, you can see on Slide 12, we reported AUM of 62,400,000,000 dollars fee paying AUM of $42,800,000,000 and AUM not yet paying fees of $8,500,000,000 AUM grew 8% to 62 point $4,000,000,000 quarter over quarter, driven primarily by capital raising, deployment of capital and direct lending and portfolio appreciation across the platform. Fee paying AUM grew 7% to $42,800,000,000 quarter over quarter, driven primarily by capital raising and deployment in direct lending. As a reminder, for GP Solutions, we earn management fees when the capital is raised, not deployed. And for direct lending, as I mentioned earlier, we generally earn management fees once the capital is deployed, typically based on total assets. AUM not yet paying fees reached $8,500,000,000 This AUM once deployed corresponds to an increase in expected annual management fees totaling $120,000,000 For direct lending, the 2nd quarter saw record gross deployments of $5,100,000,000 and net funded deployments of $3,200,000,000 the difference being paydowns of existing loans during the quarter. And our last 12 month deployment was $12,900,000,000 on a gross basis and $7,500,000,000 on a net funded basis. So of the $8,500,000,000 of AUM not yet paying fees I just mentioned, dollars 6,100,000,000 is for direct lending. So based on our average net funded deployment over the last 12 months as a deployment pace, it would take us less than 3 quarters to fully deploy this capital. Finally, I'll close out my remarks today with an overview of the firm's strong financial condition and some other closing comments. We have a balance sheet light model. And as you can see on Slide 19, we have almost $600,000,000 of liquidity as of June 30, with a long dated capital structure that is comprised of $700,000,000 of 10 year debt and an undrawn $150,000,000 senior secured revolver with almost 3 years of maturity remaining. Our net debt is approximately 250,000,000 dollars or approximately 0.5 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA. Our Board declared a dividend of $0.04 per share for the Q2 of 2021, which we calculated by looking at the full quarter results I just mentioned, distributable earnings of 108,000,000 dollars and using half that number for our dividend payable since we closed the transaction roughly halfway through the second quarter. Although our dividend policy is to pay approximately 85% of our distributable earnings on a quarterly basis, this represents 100% for the quarter. Going forward, you should generally expect us to maximize the amount of our dividend each quarter with a target of 85% of DE. Finally, our Board approved a $100,000,000 discretionary stock buyback plan during the quarter. To wrap up, when I look down the road, we believe our investment performance, our focus on delivering institutional quality products across all distribution channels and the overall brand we've built will drive our growth for the future. We are still in our early days of entering new markets and growing our business. And once again, I want to thank all of our stakeholders for joining us today. We believe our business to be a very differentiated story in the alt space with a compelling financial model, and we look forward to spending more time with all of you in person in the coming months and quarters. With that, operator, can we please open the line for questions? Our first question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Great. Thanks for the question. Good morning, everybody, and congrats on the Q1. So first, I was hoping to start with a question around direct lending. Obviously, the pace of origination has been running well above historical levels. And from the ORCC call, it sounds like that pace has sort of continued so far into the Q3. So I was hoping you could expand on your sort of expectations for origination pace for the rest of the year. How Al is sort of differentiating itself in the marketplace to make sure you gain sort of incremental share of deal flow without taking excessive risk? And I guess secondly, Alan, to your point about the fact that it will take only 3 quarters to deploy sort of the Shadow AUM here, how are you thinking about the sources of additional fundraising here to make sure that you have enough sort of dry powder to meet the need of the channel? Great. Well, listen, thank you, Alex, for the questions. So first off, the direct lending pace, as you just observed, absolutely continues very robustly. We continue to see activity this quarter that's at least consistent with the levels of last quarter. And while the timing in any given quarter of exactly what will close in terms of a new loan, what will happen in terms of repayments? It's hard to know with precision. We're continuing to see elevated activity. To the kind of durability question, again, understand that there's a unknowable rhythm to the pace of a certain number of investments, the backdrop is extremely strong. If you look at fundraising and private equity, we're now looking at probably about $1,500,000,000,000 of dry powder, and $400,000,000 of year to date private equity fundraising, which is just tremendous. That is the demand equation for our product. And our product in fact is really taking share within the overall financing environment. So if you think about just being simple for a moment, that one point $5,000,000,000,000 uses $1 of leverage or $1,500,000,000,000 of demand just for new financings coming into the marketplace, predictably in some fashion over the coming years. And we are well positioned to take, I think, substantial advantage of that. As you've also seen, the size of financing that we are doing are growing. We're now taking multibillion dollar unitranche financings. That's a pretty new phenomena, but I think a durable one in all likelihood. Add to that the trillions of existing leverage financing in the non investment grade market, which has to be refinanced and really the TAM, so to speak, I think is really not to the constraint. It really has to do with, as you point out, maintaining our very, very careful discipline, which has been our hallmark. As you obviously saw in our comments, our performance since inception on that is running platform wide at about 5 basis points. Really, I think best of breed or right in there. So maintaining that discipline is key. We have our intention of maintaining that discipline, but we continue to see very elevated activity levels currently and certainly think there's all the underpinnings for that to continue for years to come. And hey, this is Doug Ostrower. Maybe I can comment just on growth in general and answer your question specifically about raising additional capital. Certainly, our biggest growth initiatives, our business is relatively simple. And I like to think about it as we have 5 things we're trying to accomplish in the near term. So one is, you mentioned this, get the $8,500,000,000 of assets that we've raised. We're not currently earning management fees on yet, get that deployed. Mark talked about the elevated deployment level. We think that will continue for the rest of the year, hopefully for some time. And Alan touched on this, that's $120,000,000 of incremental revenue per year. Obviously, Dial Fund 5, which Michael will touch on at some point, I'm sure in Q and A, but our deployment there has been excellent. The existing funds, funds 34, the performance has really been exceptional. So highly confident in that fundraise. In terms of replenishing our capital, I think you know and we can spend some time on this if you'd like. We're getting ready to launch a retail product into the wirehouses. And again, I'd like to maybe further in Q and A spend a little more time on this, it's called our core income fund. I think Blackstone has been raising $4,000,000,000 a month. We've been raising about $100,000,000 a month and we think it's we're early in the process, but we were hopeful we can exceed people's expectations with what we can do in retail. Then I think we have a number of BDCs that we're earning discounted fees on until they list. Alan touched on our tech fund, at some point that will go public and we think we have the ability to go out and raise additional BDCs. So we're cautiously optimistic on what we can do in the next number of quarters. But I think on those five initiatives, we're highly confident that you'll see us execute over the next 3 or 4 quarters on each of those. Great. Thank you both. And maybe just touching on the other side of the ledger and talk about the GP Solutions business and dial. So Michael, I think this is probably for you, but one of the questions we get the most from investors is really about the addressable market for dial here, given the fact that the private market is obviously very large. You mentioned $7,500,000,000,000 in AUM. But as you think about what's really addressable for Dial and more importantly, how much in fee paying AUM relative to your sort of $19 ish billion today in the second quarter do you think you will require to support the growth, I'll call it over the next 3 to 5 years to support the growth in this GP solution space? Yes. Good morning, Alex. Thanks for the question. We look at the GP solution space as one of the most under penetrated spaces in all of alternatives. When we estimate the TAM, the addressable market, we think it's about $500,000,000,000 of total capacity now growing to $750,000,000,000 over the next 5 years. When you look at our fund, which we can come back to, our current fund that we're raising, fund 5 targeting a $9,000,000,000 cover and our competitors, which are substantially smaller and they're really only 2 major competitors, you're looking at a tiny, tiny percentage of the addressable market being met by the existing funds. So we see a really long runway, not just Fund 5, but on into 6, 7 and 8 and a lot of conversations that have been developing and percolating for years. It's quite often that a relationship of ours will take anywhere from 3, 4, 5 years to ultimately result in a GP stake. So we have a really long runway and our eyes are on the horizon and we think there's plenty of capital to raise and deploy over time. Great. Thanks again. And maybe the last question for me. And Doug, you mentioned this, but clearly there is a lot of interest and appetite in the retail channel for private markets funds. It feels like in the last 2 to 3 quarter that's been a theme that folks have talked about for a long time, but it feels like it's sort of final year. So maybe spend a minute on sort of what differentiates Blue Owl and your credit products in the retail channel and sort of how you expect it to evolve over the next few quarters years? Okay. Well, if it's okay with you, I just want to spend a moment on retail in general, because I know you're familiar with what we've built, but I'm not sure everybody else on the phone is. We've been in the retail space since we've launched. And we've had really good success in the channel. As I mentioned, we're currently in the market with our core income fund. Our sales have exceeded over $100,000,000 a month, but most of those sales have been in the independent broker dealer channel. As I mentioned, now we are expanding into wirehouse distribution, and we're expecting that to go well. But at this point, we're reluctant to get ahead of ourselves in terms of predictions. But I'm hopeful over the next few quarters, we'll have some good news there. But if you take a step back, there is no doubt retail is a huge opportunity. We believe it's as large as the institutional market, but with much lower adoption rates. I mentioned Blackstone earlier, they've had tremendous success. I think I mentioned it was $4,000,000,000 a quarter. It's actually they're raising $4,000,000,000 a month between their non traded REIT and their credit product. So it gives you a sense of the numbers that can be achieved in these channels. So we think our products are very competitive. Mark talked about our lending performance. We think it's best in class. We actually think it's tough decile. From day 1, though, we built our platform to serve the institutional and the retail investors in the same way. This is different than many of our peers. If you look at what we've built, retail and institutional own the identical securities at the same price. And we think that makes a big difference in terms of what the retail experience will be. Our goal is to bring a true institutional experience to that retail market. So we're really optimistic as it relates to retail. But again, we're not ready yet to make any big predictions. To give you an idea of scale, today we have over 40 professionals focused exclusively on retail. And I think by the end of the year, that number will approach 50 professionals. We're also building out our Asian and European retail distribution and we expect to raise a significant amount of capital abroad. And then finally, we're currently only working on distributing lending products through retail and Dial has some strategies that we think could fit really well in the retail channels. They're certainly the market leader. And so that's something that we'll also be spending a lot of time on as well. Perfect. Well, thank you very much for taking all my questions. Thank you, Alex. Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt. Hi, good morning guys from Autonomous Research. So I appreciate you stuck with the 2021 2022 guidance, but if we take the 180,000,000 dollars of 2Q management fees compared to the guidance of like $956,000,000 I think for the year, it would seem you are tracking well below that. So could you help bridge the gap between the kind of 2Q management fee run rate and sticking with the 2021 guidance? Sure, of course, Patrick. Thank you. It's Alan Kirschenbaum. So the annual guidance, we are right on track for the quarter of where we expect it to be for management fees. You can't take our annual numbers and divide by 4. For a growing business, we should expect each quarter, putting aside one time items, each quarter revenues and FRE and DE will be higher than the previous quarter, with the growth that we projected out and we expect of our business for the next year, for the next few years. So this quarter, we're right on top of our management fee numbers that we expected. Expenses came in a little lower and transaction fees came in a little higher. And so that's really the headline story for the quarter. And what you should expect is when and Mark touched on this earlier, when we have elevated originations on the direct lending side of our business, you should expect higher transaction fees. And the same goes the other way. As we have lower originations, you should expect lower transaction fees. And so 2Q, as Craig and I were on our call last week for Alrock Capital Corporation, we talked about record numbers for 2Q and we noted that 3Q will be roughly the same or could be higher than 2Q. So as we think about the 3Q numbers for Blue Owl, we could have the with Dial Fund 5? Could you remind us of that? Of course. Yes, there is a fee holiday. So Michael talked about $9,000,000,000 as our target fundraise for Dial Fund 5. We've closed that, that is subject to a fee holiday about $2,000,000,000 and we expect there could be another $500,000,000 give or take. And so that fee holiday is for initial closers or those investors who were around the first close, but couldn't get closed for the first close, that runs through the end of this year. And so those will all investors in Dial Fund 5 will pay the full 2% fee starting Jan 1. Got it. Very helpful. Great. Doug, you mentioned the, I think, the retail product running at about $100,000,000 a month. Am I right that that's basically just 1 month at this point? But it's been in the No, we have been that's what we've been running for a while. But that's in the independent broker dealer channel. And we are just getting ready to go into the wires. We'll be in a few big wire houses between now and the end of the year. And then I think you'll see the syndicate grow in a very meaningful way starting January 1. So hopefully, as I said, we'll have a lot more to talk about in the upcoming quarters. But we're cautiously optimistic. And based on our track record and the feedback we're getting so far, we're expecting it to go relatively well. Got it. And last one I have is a little bit broader, but I know it's early days and who knows what's going to happen in D. C, but do you guys have any thoughts on how a change in the capital a change in the carried interest tax rate could have on the cash flow of the dial portfolios? Is there any concern that could meaningfully impair the yields of those vehicles? Yes. Thanks, Patrick. It's Michael. What really happens when different tax legislation is proposed is that you have a tremendous amount of thinking and activity from the owner's perspective in planning out how they will own and continue to run their businesses. And it generates incremental activity, not just a pull forward of some conversations that may have been longer in duration, but also a number of players that get off the fence and do want to think about GP stake deals that wouldn't have actually done so. So we see a very strong uptick in the actual volume of opportunities for us, both near term and medium term. But as it relates to our investment yield, our investors are predominantly passive across all of the dial funds. And so for that reason, at least any of the carried interest legislation that's proposed to date wouldn't impact a passive investor in a DIAL fund. So it actually continues to have very attractive cash flow profile that wouldn't be impacted or impeded by anything that's currently been proposed in Washington or quite frankly any of the European jurisdictions as well. And Patrick, this is Mark. Go ahead, Jack. Just to follow-up a thought and just a refresher, which you know this to be true, but for BlueOwl shareholders, the underlying yields and performance in our products, whether on the direct lending side or the dial side within recent ranges really don't matter. Remember, carried interest is 0% of the revenues of Laval. And so while it is certainly relevant and we keep a close eye on it as it bears on delivering performance, which as you know, ValPhy, for example, is currently running over 60%. So I think we're feeling very good about that performance. But that performance inures to the benefit of the LPs from a Blue Dollar shareholder point of view. We are the picks and shovels with a SaaS offer. We get paid a recurring fee to manage those products a permanent basis. And at this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn call back over to Doug Ostrower for closing comments. Well, thanks so much, everyone. It was a treat having some time to speak with you today. We look forward to working closely with all of you and hopefully continuing to see your expectations. Thanks again. Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.