Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019
Feb 12, 2020
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Pegasystems 4th Quarter 2019 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ken Stilwell, CFO. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Pegasystems' Q4 2019 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to read our safe harbor statement. Certain statements contained in this presentation may be construed as forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words expects, anticipates, intend, plans, believes, will, could, should, estimates, may, targets, strategies, intends to, projects, forecasts, guidance, likely and usually or variations of such words and other similar expressions identify forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date that the statement was made and are based on current expectations and assumptions.
Because such statements deal with future events, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results for fiscal year 2019 beyond could differ materially from the company's current expectations. Factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially from those expressed in forward looking statements are contained in the company's press release announcing its Q4 2019 earnings and in its working capital filing of the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2019, and other recent filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward looking statements, and there are no assurances that the matters contained in such statements will be achieved. Although subsequent events may cause our view to change, except as required by applicable law, we should not undertake and specifically disclaim any obligation to publicly update or revise these forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
And with that, I'll turn
the call over to Alan Trefler, founder and CEO of Pegasystems.
Thank you, Ken. As I've seen in the earnings release, we delivered a very strong Q4, which capped out strong results throughout 2019. In 2019, we made significant progress on our key goals, accelerating growth and moving to a recurring model, beginning to see a payoff on our go to market investments and creating broader and deeper client engagement and positive business results. I'm pleased with how we're executing on our strategy to help clients achieve their digital transformation goals. Our optimism is validated by clients and prospects and it's also reflected in our ACV and backlog growth.
This is driven by increasing pegging adoption with both new and long standing clients. We're very happy to see the ACV growth in total accelerated in Q4 to 22% year over year. And as we said, we believe ATV is the leading measure who most closely reflects our underlying business momentum. I want to congratulate the entire Pega team for solid execution in 2019, and I am very confident in our ability to execute. We also know there's so much more we can do to capitalize on the immense opportunity to help clients succeed with the additional transformation initiative.
Now in 2019, again, these dozens of C level execs, those recently adopted. And that was 2020 technically. We see a number of key trends affecting our clients. Now regardless of industry, a common thread is their ongoing struggle with true digital transformation. And they're thinking about how to survive competitive onslaughts and what it will take to thrive over the next 3, 5 or more years, especially with the lack of the disability we see in so much of the world and in the economy.
So there are 3 very clear common challenges that are emerging, and they line up perfectly with public capabilities. 1st, organizations need to build the right business and technology architectures to support business models that are evolving. They must pool together capabilities and assets from multiple sources, including outside your organizations, to build open platforms that will support these new business models. There are technical challenges involved in weaving together an enterprise wide and open ecosystem of people, processes and data, perfectly aligned with what we do exceptionally well. 2nd, organizations are dealing with a shift from traditional product oriented to transactional models to a world where everything is offered as a service.
The conventional idea of product, something that was bought and owned, is being turned upside down. And organizations are realizing the importance of a shift to this ad service mindset. They're adapting to be more customer centric, frictionless, easier to engage and ultimately accountable in different ways. This trend aligns equally well with our ability to enable organizational speed through intelligent automation and deliver powerful but hyper personalized customer experiences, which just brings everything together in new ways. And 3rd, powered by ubiquitous connectivity, mobile compute power and increased customer expectations, enterprises are shifting from a culture of reactive performance to focus on proactive and even preemptive engagement, using analytical principles that leverage information well beyond what's captured in the traditional CRM system to not just anticipate the needs, but also to actually rep potential negative customer issues or interactions.
The old adage of, quote, fix the problem before the customer knows they have it is finally achievable, whether you're actually making your customer more satisfied or preempting a call. These challenges are common across industries, though expressed in different ways. For example, in telecommunications, the industry of movies and selling phones to selling connectivity and content services, They understand the old style data plan is going to be a race to the bottom and are looking for ways to better understand what customers want and deliver contextual engagements and offers for an expanded portfolio of services and content across channels. I'm not all know how to do it, but we all know that they need it. A great example is in one of our largest 2019 deals with one of the world's largest telecommunication companies.
They chose Pega to help them achieve strategic digital transformation. Services in the telecom sector becoming more commoditized, they are intent on differentiating through superior proactive and preemptive service to deliver that customer experience and increase their revenue and massively drive cost out of the business, exactly the type of initiative we received it for. They chose Pega because we were the vendor that could best help them meet the evolving capital needs, achieving scale, moving to the cloud, realizing low code speed of delivery, differentiated customer service and integrating AI naturally into their customer journey. They expect to generate cases at a 1,000,000,000 a year rate in 2021, each able to take the next step action and ensure fulfillment of customers in the moment, which will lose tens of billions of next step action decisions each year. In financial services, many firms are still organized in silo The credit card division since it owns its customers and doesn't talk to the mortgage group, it doesn't talk about checking and savings.
And these silos are going to be shattered by the emergence of Open Banking. And these stacks of Open Banking standards make it easy for organizations to compete and will require that organizations put together a package with multiple products from across their own bank as well as from other institutions. This can create better customer loyalty and the customers manage from a centralized touch point environment, but it also opens the backs up to significant risk. It's a real driver, of course, that organizations have been developed. And the health care industry is the final one that's historically been transactional and ultimately incredibly reactive.
Snaps of action around a specific event, acute illness or a hospital admission. But the industry is rapidly shifting to wellness and preemptive health outcomes, which means delivering a continuous proactive and nurturing wellness experience and being able to measure the results. The cause of all of these organizations is that they need a platform on which to build their own business platforms and they need to respond and adapt quickly. With competitors using similar and sometimes identical language to us to describe themselves, I want to remind you of the true power and promise and differentiation of our solutions. We're a modern, scalable platform that has both the brain, the intelligence to make brilliant decisions and the muscle, the ability to get work done in a common architecture.
And Kaggle Infinity is the only software that truly unifies these capabilities. Our architecture technology and experience in intelligent automation is miles ahead of alternatives, and we continue to invest on taking anything for granted. I find it amusing to see some companies now dredging up churn from the 1990s like workflow. Even as we were the highest rated company in that segment back then, we were, I've always found the word ironic and frankly sad. Especially in today's era, it shouldn't be about workflow.
It should be about work to do. And that's exactly what Teva delivers. Teva's unique capabilities position us to be the platform of platforms for enterprises that want to create real digital transformation and evolve its economy. Never has our planned promise build for change been more relevant. To touch a bit on 2019 accomplishments, we continue to focus on the solutions markets and industries that we think will generate the best returns for our business.
And we both deepened our commitment to traditionally strong markets while expanding in newer markets with high potential. We continue to invest in project finance to ensure our platform remains best in industry, providing clients with the most innovative and differentiated capabilities in the market with a faster time to value, while building our roughly very unique model driven approach that makes it easier to take clients with us even if we make massive changes and introduce concepts like Cloud Choice. And at the core of this offering, it's TEGNA Infinity. There's single unified powerful intelligent automation platform increasingly adopted by our clients and prospects as the platform that they want to use to deliver their business platforms. This month, we're releasing the latest version of Pega Infinity with exciting new capabilities in our core areas of 1 to 1 client engagement, customer service and intelligent automation.
It's a really exciting new feature, built in design thinking concepts directly incorporated into the software to make low code and highly collaborative development faster and easier. Called Pega Express, we literally take the development process and guide you step by step to quickly design and deploy their projects, ranging from minimum lovable projects, small quickly, to the traditional projects that can handle the mission critical things that drive a business. This lets customers start small to take advantage of package strength and scale and evolve applications based on business needs. We think this capability is going to be especially important as organizations develop new and more platform oriented ways of thinking. So on our 2019 results, our strategy is working.
We saw good momentum, and we continue to develop customer engagement capabilities with new messaging and data visualization. We can do major AI enhancements to make it easier and faster for clients to develop smart applications. And we have continuously ranked highly in the many industry reports and demographics in this category, document reports to the customer engagement, multichannel marketing hubs, real time interaction management, industry awards for CRM, customer case management and customer service. We recently commissioned a report from Forrester that calculated the value of working with PACCAR on transforming customer engagement. Among clients for us to analyze, the average return on investment is a whopping 4 89% over a 3 year period with 6 months to breakeven.
There's an extraordinary amount of quantifiable value our customer engagement solutions at Bravigo, and you can feel free to check out the Forrester report on our website. We'll continue to enhance the Pega platform in intelligent automation with our robotic process automation solutions. And as I mentioned, we introduced the enterprise low code factory to make it possible for citizen developers to create enterprise compliant, IT blessed low code solutions. This continues to garner industry recognition by major analysts, and we were identified as being excellent in a number of key categories that are critical to our clients. And we have continued to invest in better cloud to ensure we have awesome cloud solutions while still supporting cloud choice for customers who want to run a private or partner cloud.
In 2019, we expanded our Cloud Choice guarantee with preliminary support, and we added several important security certifications, including HITRUST, IRAP and FedRAMP, making it much easier to do business in health care and with the government. More importantly, as senior results, the demand for Pega Cloud and Cloud Choice continues to grow. We're thrilled to see. So 2019 was a year of quality growth, and we continue to focus on expanding the field organization to better capture the remarkable opportunity in front of us. This includes our client successful organization, helping us capitalize on the opportunity for expansion within our client base.
We have also increased engagement, which we judge based on high quality interactions on the web or meetings or e mail conversations by more than 30% of our target organizations, and we expanded our certified ecosystem by more than 25%. You may recall that in 2017, we launched our Pega Ventures program to invest in emerging Pega partners and help accelerate their ecosystem. Since then, we've invested in 9 companies in the U. S. And EMEA, all of whom are doing well and growing.
We just had an announcement and we're really pleased to see that TelesTech, a leading digital global consumer experience technology and services company, just bought one of these partners, Surrendabel. TelesTech has more than 48,000 employees on 6 continents focused on delivering transformative customer experiences, engagement and great solutions. And the fact that they see an opportunity to grow their business with a Pega focused practice is exactly the kind of results we were looking for when we established this program and a great validation. And then the final topic is EgoWorld. This is a significant amount of the year.
It's our flagship conference, and it's going to be very, very exciting this year. We have terrific clients signed up to present over 100. So for example, UnitedHealthcare will be speaking about how to use AI for next generation customer care. Ford will be talking about how they are harnessing Pega across the enterprise to enable citizen development. HSBC will be talking about how it's rolling Pega globally based on the successes they saw in their early regions.
And me and Agree, we'll be talking about using Pega to build the future of insurance through what they call insurance in a box. This year, we'll be in our hometown of Boston, and we hope you'll be able to join us at what will be the biggest and best ever world ever on June 1 2nd. So in summary, we're very happy with our 2019 performance. I'm pleased to see our license and cloud ACV growth in the way that it has. In 2020, you can see us operate with an ongoing rhythm of continuous improvement to improve our products, expand our ecosystem, invest in sales and marketing to capture the full potential of the opportunity while being mindful of cost and profitability.
Our continued to be very positive about how our software is being adopted, and we have really, really excellent visibility to revenue for next year and are thus guiding to be over $1,000,000,000 of revenue. I'm excited to see this milestone and grateful for the entire Pega team that has gotten us where we are today and carries us into the future. I'm thankful to our clients and shareholders for continuing to trust us. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin.
Thank you, Alan. We've reached an important milestone we consciously shifted Pega's business model, moving from a company that primarily sold software on a perpetual license basis to a much larger company that sells mostly on a subscription basis. We've made great progress on our transition so far. 2 of the most important success metrics that we've been tracking to show in the impact and progress of our strategic execution during this transition, of our annual contract value or ACV and remaining performance obligation, RPO, or sometimes referred to as backlog. Let me first talk about ACV.
Just to remind you, we entered 2019 with the target of increasing total ACV by about 20% in 20 19. I'm pleased to report that total ACV growth exceeded our expectations. At the end of 2019, our total ACV was $693,000,000 a solid increase of 22% from 20 eighteen's total ACV of 570,000,000 dollars Pega Cloud ACV grew 54 percent from $110,000,000 in 20 18 to $169,000,000 in 20 19. This impressive result drove this total ACV growth rate up to 22%. ACV growth continues to be our most important metric, reflecting the successful execution of our strategy.
Total ACV is the sum of recurring Pega Cloud and client cloud commitment, representing the annualized recurring spend of our clients for cloud, term license and maintenance. Another reason that the CV growth is so important is because the best leading indicator for our future revenue growth. Now let's turn to remaining performance obligation, RPO, also called backlog, which is another important metric. In 2019, Pega Cloud backlog increased by 41%, going from $299,000,000 as of December 31, 2018 to $422,000,000 as of December 31, 2019. Backlog reflects client commitments not recorded as revenue as of the period reported, providing visibility into where a significant portion of our future revenue will come from.
Total backlog increased by $205,000,000 from $631,000,000 to 836,000,000 dollars an increase of about 33% when compared to the balance at the end of fiscal 2018. A robust backlog is another benefit of our cloud transition. Historically, much of our bookings were taken as revenue in the current period, causing variability in our quarterly results. These days, the largest portion of our bookings are cloud, most of which goes into backlog, creating a more predictable revenue and cash flow stream. You can see further evidence of our successful transition to the recurring revenue business by looking at the change in our total revenue mix.
Over the past 4 years, we've moved from a business that was about 50% recurring revenue to a business that's over 67% recurring revenue at the end of 2019. That's a pretty spectacular shift in a relatively short period of time. When you include Tega Consulting, we have almost 90% visibility to our 2020 revenue target. A core element of our strategy continues to be to build a more valuable business by shifting a greater percentage of our annual revenue to the subscription model. We believe satisfying demand for recurring arrangements not only enables us to capture significant lifetime value from existing customers, but also unlocks previously untapped customer segments, which can include business units that would prefer operating rather than capital expenses or companies whose cash constraints prevent them from making big advanced investments.
We also enable our clients to start fast and scale, which aligns very well with the subscription based model. I want to drive home this point. We will continue to provide flexibility to our clients who see tremendous value in our Cloud Choice differentiator, and our clients continue to invest in Pega on a recurring basis. Our deliberate ongoing transformation to a recurring business model continues to track to plan. As we've discussed in the past, the cloud transition typically takes a software company about 4 to 5 years to complete.
Today, towards the approximate midpoint of our cloud transition. If our cloud transition continues at this pace, we will expect revenue and profitability optics to improve noticeably in 2020 2021 and to normalize during 2022. We continue to invest in sales capacity and build out our cloud infrastructure to continue to scale this significant growth engine, which is in the near term has temporarily slowed our margin improvement. We expect the lag between the business we win and its revenue and the resulting mismatch between revenue and cost to diminish over time as we exit this transition. We remain very confident that the long term benefits of our recurring business model, including a more predictable future revenue and cash flow stream, far outweighs its huge short term off things around reported revenue growth and the impact to short term cash flow EPS margin and profitability.
For 2019, we're reporting both GAAP and non GAAP results. A full reconciliation of all GAAP to non GAAP measures is provided in the financial tables in the press release issued earlier today and those are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website. So let's turn to a few other details. In 2019, we returned about $74,000,000 to shareholders, comprised of about $9,000,000 of dividends and approximately $65,000,000 in share buybacks and net settlements of equity. And we finished the quarter with just over 5,100 employees worldwide, an increase of approximately 13% from 1 year ago.
More than half of the new hires joined our go to market organization. This growth reflects the fact that TEGS continues to be seen by candidates as an extremely attractive place to work. Turning to our fiscal year 2020 guidance. Given our strong ACV growth in 2019, it's clear that Pega's annual revenue will exceed $1,000,000,000 for the first time in the company's history, an important milestone. Assuming that Pega Cloud continues and it's approximately half of new client commitments, we expect $1,100,000,000 of revenue, representing total annual revenue growth of about 20% for 2020.
From earnings perspective, we expect to achieve approximately $0.20 of non GAAP EPS. We believe that the quarterly revenue and cost linearity for 2020 should resemble our quarterly linearity for 2019. We anticipate a slightly better gross margin in 2020 as our cloud business achieves better scale efficiency. The impact of the cloud shift will be significant to revenue and margins in 2020 as we cross the midway point of this cloud transition. So continuing to drive significant ACV growth is a priority and is the ultimate measure of the successful execution of our strategy.
In 2020 beyond, we're focused on achieving several key goals. First, we aspire to increase our growth rate. The market for digital transformation is huge and PEG is well positioned for continued success given our outstanding team, our best in class product portfolio and our proven track record of customer success. 2nd, we will continue to shift our business to an increasingly recurring model, improving our revenue and cash flow visibility. 3rd, we will continue to differentiate by offering cloud choice to our clients.
4th, we are focused on building a business that can sustain greater improvement in profitability as we scale, allowing us to make progress running the business under the rule of 40 theme, balancing growth and margin, while we continue to invest in sales and marketing to capture this massive market opportunity in front of us. Before opening the call for questions, I'd like to invite each of you to our Annual Investor Day on Monday, June 1, during our annual conference, PegaWorld Inspire, which is in Boston, as Alan mentioned. To attend, please send an email to pegainvestorrelations pega.com. For those who cannot join in person, we'll hold a webcast the day of the event accessible on the Investor Relations section of our website. And with that, operator, we will open the call to questions.
We'll go first to Rishi Jaluria from D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.
Hey guys, thanks so much for taking my questions and nice to see a strong finish to the year. A couple of ones. First, in thinking about the cloud gross margin side, I know we talked about it and there's the investments on the cloud infrastructure side. It was down a little bit this year. How should we be thinking about the opportunity for cloud gross margin expansion heading into next year and beyond?
So hey, Richie, it's Ken. So it's a great question. We originally had kind of envisioned this cloud margin being much more of a linear scaling between 2018 through 2022 as we start to achieve more normalized margin. And the reality is, as we've talked about, we made some significant investments in 2019 like our FedRAMP certification but also getting ahead of some of the accelerated growth in cloud to make sure we have the right infrastructure support. So I think 2019, we've mentioned before and we firmly believe is really a trough year for us.
And that gross margin will improve in 2020 2021 2022 with fairly kind of linear fashion each year getting up to where our more steady state margins are. So you will definitely see improvement in cloud margin. Some of that is scale improvement because the cloud is bigger. But it's also some specific things that we've done to really run our cloud more efficiently in 2000 at the end of 2019. Got it.
And then on the hiring side, you mentioned the growth in both home plays and go to market. It looks like the headcount this quarter is up about 33% versus last year. It's been accelerating pretty steadily for the past couple of quarters. Can you give us a sense for where how do you feel you are in terms of sales and go to market higher? And when I think should we expect the catch up curve to be over and see sales hiring rates maybe drop back in line with ACV growth?
Yes. I think the solution to that problem, to be candid, is to get the ACV growth up. If that doesn't happen, then we're going to not continue to accelerate if we can't get to a high level of confidence that we're going to get to a return. I think what's happened in the last 18 months in particular, to just give sort of a little subjective flavor to it, as we've really deepened our engagements with some of these enormous, enormous companies we deal with, We're, A, finding way more opportunity and, B, it's a reminder that it takes a while to get introduced, reintroduced and build those relationships. I actually had a meeting at the beginning of 2019 where a very senior executive of 1 of the world's largest banks who was already a customer.
I heard what we did, had a discussion and he looked at me and said, where the hell have you guys been? He said, I can't escape. You can guess what the consequence of that, you can't escape Lamar. And what you have is way better than what they have. And frankly, there's business that will be coming from that.
Take a certain critical mass. This is going to be an important test year for us to demonstrate that we can get returns and get them more reliably, and we're committed to showing that.
All right. Great. That's helpful. In terms of maybe cash flow question for you, It did look a little light in the quarter. And then just going through the balance sheet, it looks like that may be a little bit on the receivable side.
Can you maybe shed a little bit more light on cash flow? I mean, based on guidance, you're talking about something in the neighborhood of 600 basis points of margin expansion on the income statement. But how should we be thinking about capital margins next year? So as you go through a cloud transition, I mean, there's some people that talk about they refer to this concept as financing the transition, right? Because you're going away from receiving all your perpetual revenue upfront.
And not only do you have the revenue trough, you actually do create a natural delay in billing because the billing matches really matches the revenue a little bit more closely for our cloud business. So we're sorry, we're about halfway through our cloud transition and we've largely funded that through cash available balance sheet, etcetera. So we are we believe that 2020 will be better than 2019. And 2021 will be better than 2020. And 2022 will kind of be back to more normal level.
But naturally, if you go through a cost transition, there is a pressure on cash flow just like there is on the options of top line revenue. But it's nothing unusual, and we're well positioned to get through the transition. All right. Got it, Collyn. And then my last one from me, and I'll hop.
Just in terms of the guidance for next year, I apologize if I missed this. What are you assuming in terms of Pega Cloud as a percent of new sales in 2020 versus what we saw in 2019? So we have assumed a 50% mix of Pega Cloud again because that would seem directionally in line with what we saw in 2019. And also, we're kind of with cloud choice, we really feel that there's a lot of choice and a lot of flexibility our clients need and want. And so we believe that cloud Pega Cloud, excuse me, will be somewhere in the 50% range again for next year.
All right. Perfect. Thank you so much, guys.
And next, we'll go to Steve Koenig from Wedbush Securities.
I'll just give you 2 here, one maybe one more for Ken and one more for Alan. So Ken, apologies, I dropped a couple of times, so if you already answered this. But talk to me
a little bit
about your ACV expectations. You did 22% year on year in Q4. Was that a result of some large deals coming in? Or was it a result of you feel solidly that the hiring you've done is now becoming more productive and is that a new baseline for next year? Or would you look to improve upon?
Maybe some thoughts on how that could trend. So yes, Steve, we the ATV that we did in 2019, I would not attribute to a small number of deals that skewed the number. We always do sales of size, as everyone probably knows on this call. So there's always a certain amount of our bookings that are with larger transactions. But I wouldn't say that I don't I wouldn't have said that 2019 was skewed in that direction.
In terms of the what's hopefully the new normal, right, in terms of the ACV number, naturally, we want that number to, at a minimum, be about 20% because if we can keep it above that, we can really stay close to our longer term target. However, we're investing in a pace in go to market that we should yield something higher than that. Seeing 22% for fiscal 2019 is really promising to suggest that maybe this is the start of an acceleration of that number, which would then really validate the strategy of us increasing go to market. Well, I'd like to know
it's my secret that we really think that for companies with high quality executing well that the right number for growth should be meaningfully above 20% to 22%, as you gave in the 30s, I would say, at a minimum. And so we're investing and working to do that. The good news is that the pipeline, what we consider to be a qualified pipeline, actually grew at a faster rate than our ACV growth. So that, I think, sets us up well and suggests that if we can even convert it to contract, we should be able to certainly not flip that. Great.
That's really helpful color. I appreciate both
of you guys weighing in on that. Great. And then sort of follow-up on kind of change of pace here. As you look at your development work on Project Phoenix, how do you expect kind of how should we think about the rollout when that goes to EA? How it goes to EA?
Does it replace Infinity? Is it incremental to Infinity? Kind of help us understand the shape of that development as it goes to market.
Yes. So when we announced and had the deep dive to the 1 of the architects from our clients at PegaWorld last year, We did a whole extra day on a Wednesday to really do a deep dive with about 150 clients and architects. And what some of the stuff we want to be really clear about is, A, this is something that is rolled out in increments. And we have already rolled out some meaningful pieces of Infinity in terms of being able to, frankly, modernize and interoperate with our client systems. And it is not going to be something we just rip out and replace Infinity with.
This is Phoenix is a project, not a product. And it's a project to really actually take advantage of cloud native technologies, take advantage of state of the art new user experiences. If you want to see an example of what we're talking about, if you go to design. Pega.com, you can see an entirely design system we put out and that Phoenix will bring that into the absolutely latest state of the art front end, organized around the app. We expect because we're model driven, we'll be able to take huge amounts of what our customers have already done with us.
So this is not a replacement plan. This is entirely a build for change built into the architecture plan. I'm really happy with how it's going. And if you could imagine, I'm actually personally pretty close to
it. I could imagine. Great. Well, thank you very much guys and congrats on the Q4.
Thanks, Steve.
Next, we'll go to Eun Kim from Rosenblatt Securities.
Congrats on a strong quarter, Alan and Ken. Alan, can you just qualitatively talk about the trend around large deals? I know Steve talked about it in the previous question. But not sure if you guys qualify large deals as $1,000,000 plus deals or not, but has that been trending up? Or has that been trending down?
Or do you move away from the perpetual license business? Just want to better understand the overall dynamics there or is the large deal activity or the megadeer activity is the one that's been trending down?
Yes. I would say that the total contract value, if you wanted to sort of normalize that, is similar or frankly a little smaller because we're more open. I mean, we've changed our attitude about lots of things. If you think about December of 2017 before we flipped, our sales comp plans and everything else that we did were geared to try to get the salespeople to shut a 5th year off even if the customer only wanted to go for free. So duration used to be routinely really close to 5 years.
And naturally, a lot of customers in an app of service business really are more accustomed to starting out typically for 3 or 4 year term. And whereas we used to overcompensate, frankly, hindsight for that extra 5th year commitment, We're now I think doing it much smaller. Means duration is going down a little. It didn't have to if we've been stubborn about some of the stuff. We could have kept it up.
But the reality is the fact that duration has gone down to be in the something sort of range means that means actually 2 things. 1, I think we're writing better business. And 2, the RPO, the backlog, if we had forced like we were, duration to be 5 years, would be at least the 4th higher, right? So those numbers which are already good, but really terrific. And of course, a bunch of it would have come in as perpetual, but we've gotten the cash outflow.
But the tender the business is exactly the way we want it to look, and it's not dependent on big deals. I don't know why they consider a $1,000,000 deal that makes, in fact, in many ways with the clients whom we do business with. That's kind of an off trade deal that will be and instead of working real hard to sell at the $4,000,000 a year deal upfront, let them buy the $500,000 or $1,000,000 deal and then work on being successful, not selling them. I think that's going to be a lot more reliable, too.
Great. Thanks for that detail. That does really help. And then on the professional services or consulting services line, Can you just obviously, that's been trending down as we try to offload some of that work to your system in a better channel. Is that can you just update us on the progress there?
And should we continue to expect the revenue trend to trend down in 2020?
No, I think that one, Yig. I don't suspect the professional services will decline in 2020 like it did in 2019. However, we're also not expecting professional services to grow at the pace that our ACV would be growing because I think quite frankly that would be a failure with our ecosystem bill to be able to make sure that we're encouraging lots more people entering the ecosystem to help support Pega solutions. But I don't believe you'll see a decline. I think we've been thinking about professional services being more of a single digit grower, right, year over year over the next few years, which then would, of course, bring the total mix in our favor from more towards software related subscription.
Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then just quickly, Ken, also on cash flow. What is besides the billings being the biggest driver of the cash flow dynamics, is there any other component that could potentially have an impact in 2020? I mean, do you expect receivables to have an impact or any other items?
No, not at all. Our receivables are well in check. We have real sometimes the receivable peak up at the end of the year just because the timing of our annual maintenance billings, etcetera, that tend to be more skewed towards Q4. So the AR tends to jump off in a Q4 and then kind of cheap down through the year. You kind of if you look at our last few years, you'll see that trend.
So it's not there's no ESL or collection issues whatsoever. The real challenge is to go through cloud transition is just going from billing many years upfront in a perpetual and going to billing year by year. You have to kind of get through that transition to normalize things. And that's just what's going on with the billing maybe like flattening over the last few years as we get through that transition.
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Our next we'll go to Mark Schappel from Benchmark. Your line is open.
Ken, starting with you, during
the past 12 to 18 months or so, reducing contract durations has been a focus of the company or something you've been working on. And I was just Yes.
So
Yes. So just one clarification, Mark, just so there's no misunderstanding with that. We aren't dropping duration just for I don't think you're implying this, just for sake of dropping duration. It's that what happens is when you push for longer duration, something has to give and typically you have to give deeper price discounts to get that longer commitment. That's kind of the way it works in software.
And given our retention rates being very high, there really isn't a necessary counterbalance, a lot of benefit for us to really push hard to that 5, 6, 7 year contract because you're giving up ACV to get that. So what happened is as we pushed more to be more actual and nimble with selling and really not try to force or as Alan said, be stubborn around pushing for a longer duration, it's actually freed up market opportunity for us to sell. It's actually higher ACV. But the duration question that you ask is, we started this journey, we were a little bit north of 4 years on average duration. And now we're quite kind of closer to just north or just a little bit above 3 years.
So the great thing about that is we went through that and backlog is still growing annually and ACV is still growing. And so really and we've seen good pricing and unit economics on the deals that we've done. But our duration has come down by somewhere north of 4 to maybe somewhere north of 3 years.
Thank you. That's helpful. And then Alan, moving on here, it's been 8 or 9 months since you bought a small little messaging broker or vendor. I think it was in the chat. And anyways, I was wondering if you could just give us an update of where that product stands right now, that's kind of a growing and kind of emerging space these days.
Yes. We're that's an example of bringing in both talent and technology that we tend to do the work upfront to really work to incorporate it into a really sensible current platform. And part of our announcements in the next like week is going to highlight some really impressive new capabilities that, that brings us in this area of what's sometimes referred to as direct messaging, where organizations want to communicate through their customers through chat, but do it personally and effectively. And so that's been a very, very nice action. And we're also very pleased with the talent that we got.
So I think that's the first example of types of things we're going to continue to do more on more of that are not very controversial and I think still allow us to improve the operating performance. Great. And then finally,
I was wondering if you could just give us a sense of where you would view the demand environment today versus, say, a year or so ago?
Well, pipeline is meaningfully up, and customers are really interested in having these conversations. You're never sure what the future is going to be, but right now, it looks pretty darn good. So I think the demand environment is excellent. We're able to both complement and, in some cases, compete with some of the players like the sales force or whatever that are out there, funds a lot of cap filling that we can do with those organizations. And so companies that had thought that they might go one place for a solution realize that sometimes they need a little bit more.
And what happens with the right conversations with the right people? If you go to the website and take a look at some of the videos that have been posted in the last 6 months, Well, some of these clients are saying, look at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, it's mind coming really good. So I think that environment is strong. Great. Thank
you. And next we'll go to Steve Enders from KeyBanc. Your line is open.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I was just wondering how the sales ramp that you guys have been implementing over the couple of years, how those investments and the tires are ramping? And how do you feel about their ability to execute on the strong pipeline growth that you've been seeing?
So I'll take part of that and then I'll give a second to Alan. So one of the things that I think we've been watching closely is as we hire more of our go to market team, how fast are they able to build pipe, what's the quality of that pipe. And then naturally, the next part of that is how quickly can they convert that pipe into their first and their second and their third deal, right? And what's the pipe? And we traditionally had a relatively longer ramping for new sales staff previous to the last couple of years.
What's really encouraging is that we started this bigger push for sales capacity about 18 months ago. And not only have we had good plate build, but we've already seen ACG accelerate above the 20% target that we've been operating. So that it kind of gives us a level of optimism that there is this increased capacity can certainly help drive an accelerated growth. Now we're not seeing the full yield of that yet because a lot of people are still ramping. So I'll hand it over to Alan on other thoughts.
Yes. This is a business where having great experience, having good confidence, etcetera, can help. And so people do need some time to come up for curve. We've also been putting quite a bit of effort, and we've invested, frankly, a lot in really improving our enablement, making it so that it is better and more structured. We just had a sales kickoff in January that was entirely really organized around getting organization, getting account executives to really understand what the strategy is for every one of the organizations.
And we pretty uniformly heard that it was the best education, the best trading and the most practical advice that we've ever received. So I guess we've really seen things that make me quite optimistic that we'll see increased growth. And frankly, we need to figure out how to accelerate it.
Okay. That's really helpful. And just kind of on the same front, how are you thinking about these same kind of sales force investments into next year? And I guess, how do you think about incremental OpEx growth on the sales front?
So let me make a comment about OpEx in total. So OpEx will grow at a slower pace than our revenue growth, obviously, because you see the non GAAP EPS improvement. That will be the case in 2021, likely, and the case in 2022 as well. So you will start to see operating leverage over the next 3 years. If you look at where that OpEx growth is coming from, it will be largely skewed towards the market.
And so the increase the investments that we will do, assuming that we are getting the yields and the return, as Alan mentioned earlier, on those investments, we are certainly skewing it that way because even growing at 22% or even 25% in the markets we're in and our scale, there's still a lot more cannibalization we can do for our competitors in those markets. And so we feel like that is an investment worth making.
Making. And next we'll go to Pat Walravens from JMP Securities.
Hi, this is Mark for Pat. Thank you so much for taking the question. So just wondering in terms of the market trend, if you see any new CRM or BPM trends in 2020? Or is there any change in competitive dynamics there? Thank you.
So I think it's pretty much as it has been historically. In the process space, in the automation space, we're pretty advantaged with our technology. You still see competitors running around, competitors willing to drop prices. But dropping prices doesn't deliver a lifetime. So we've found that we've been able to be quite successful at maintaining a rational price model and also having clients be successful.
I think the biggest competitive dynamic has been the change in our behavior, whereas historically we were just so skewed and the hindsight, I would say, just naturally biased to whale deals. We really have an openness and we've really staff the company with people that understand that in an ACV world and an as a service world, it's great to eat the whale and lots of bites. And I would say that behavior has meaningfully changed in the last 24 months. And I think that's all for the best. There's lots of noise out in the market.
Everyone's talking about stuff, but I'm not seeing a material change.
And
at this time, I'd like turn the call back over to Alan Trefler for closing remarks. Yes.
Thank you very much, everybody. I think that we worked hard in 2019. It's nice to have seen it close the way that it did. We're already deeply I think it's 2020. 2019 actually feels like a long time ago.
I will end with a final pitch for PegaWorld. We're expecting word of magnitude over 7,000 people. It should be terrific. There are just awesome presentations already on the docket with new companies like Procter and Gamble talking about what they're doing existing clients like Wells Sainsbury's and Unilever and a whole variety of governmental functions. So it's been a great business for us.
If you go online and tell me what you can see what they're going to be talking about. And it's not this BS pie in the sky stuff. I will tell you that many of our customers compete with each other, so we're not really allowed to talk about what they do. But when they come to this conference, they'll usually be remarkably transparent. And it's a great opportunity to see how these forward thinking companies are actually really getting in touch.
So thank you for listening and hope to see you June 1 and 2nd at PegaWorld and obviously we'll be talking to you before that. Thank you very much.
And that does conclude our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.