Hello, welcome to the Phathom Pharmaceuticals First Quarter 2026 Earnings Result call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the Q&A session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Eric Sciorilli, Phathom's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning to discuss Phathom's first quarter 2026 results. This morning's presentation will include remarks from Steven Basta, our President and CEO, and Sanjeev Narula, our Chief Financial and Business Officer. A couple of notes before we get started. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release detailing the results we will be discussing during the call. A copy of that press release can be found under the News Releases section of our corporate website. Further, the recording of today's webcast and the slides we'll be reviewing can also be found on our corporate website under the Events and Presentation section. Before we begin, let me remind you that we will be making a number of forward-looking statements throughout today's presentation. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Phathom's control.
Actual results may materially differ from the forward-looking statements, and any such risks may materially adversely affect our business and results of operations and the trading prices for Phathom's common stock. A discussion of these statements and risk factors is available on the current safe harbor slide, as well as in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings. All forward-looking statements made on this call are based on the beliefs of Phathom as of this date, and Phathom disclaims any obligation to update these statements. Later in the call, we will be commenting on both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Specifically, in the scope of this discussion, when we refer to cash Operating Expenses, please note we are referring to the non-GAAP form of this measure, which excludes Non-cash Stock-Based Compensation.
As always, detailed reconciliations between our non-GAAP results and the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in this morning's press release. With that, I will now turn the call over to Steven Basta, Phathom's President and CEO, to kick us off. Steve?
Thank you, Eric, and thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. Let me start with a few highlights and a bit of perspective on the quarter. We more than doubled revenue from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026. We believe we're on track to potentially achieving $1 billion in annual revenue from gastroenterology prescriptions, with the potential for a $2 billion from primary care prescriptions as patients cycle back to share their VOQUEZNA experience with their PCP, and we evolve our sales and marketing focus to include this segment in the future. In 2025, we set our strategy to focus on building toward that first $1 billion target in GI. We're executing that strategy. In Q1 of this year, we expanded our sales team with nearly 50 new sales representatives trained and deployed into the field in recent months.
Our sales force alignment to enable high-frequency calls on gastroenterologists is complete. We have more than 290 reps in place to start Q2. In parallel, we're rolling out enhanced HCP marketing programs with several initiatives in the works to support the sales team. Our primary sales and marketing focus is on increasing depth of writing among gastroenterologists and associated providers. We're encouraged by the impact we're already having. There are approximately 20 million PPI prescriptions written annually from gastroenterology HCPs, and we believe that 20% to 30% market share among this group should get us to the first $1 billion in annual revenue. We previously discussed that as we look at our top 300 gastroenterology writers, they are already averaging about 20% TRX share compared to PPIs.
Importantly, when we look at new to brand or NBRX writing among these early adopters, our market share is even stronger. In Q1, VOQUEZNA achieved approximately 45% NBRx market share compared to PPIs among this group of 300 writers. This means that our top 300 gastroenterology writers were selecting VOQUEZNA for their patients nearly one out of every two times that they switched their patient's therapy to a new product. In fact, even as you look as deep as our top 3,000 gastroenterology writers in Q1, cumulative NBRx or New- to- brand prescription market share remains north of 30% in that population of physician writers compared to PPIs. We believe new to brand conversions drive future TRx growth as we expect that many of these patients who are converted to VOQUEZNA will elect to remain on VOQUEZNA.
While Q1 TRx numbers showed expected seasonality, the underlying trends in prescribing behaviors and particularly new to brand switching to VOQUEZNA reinforce our view that our strategy of going deeper in gastroenterology is starting to show early positive indicators. We've transitioned the strategy and profile of this business, and we believe the effects of those changes are still getting underway. I'd like to briefly discuss key financial highlights for the quarter, and then Sanjeev will provide further commentary during his portion of the call with more detail. Net revenues were $58.3 million for Q1 compared to $28.5 million for the same quarter last year. We believe we're seeing similar early year revenue patterns compared to last year, with late March and early April prescription trends indicating the growth going into Q2. We are thus maintaining our revenue guidance for the year.
Cash Operating expenses, excluding Stock-Based Compensation, were $56.2 million for Q1. Our team continues to exercise fiscal discipline in our operations. Lastly, our net cash usage for Q1 operations was approximately $15 million. A few quick notes on commercial metrics for Q1. Through April 17th, about 1.35 million VOQUEZNA prescriptions have been filled. Covered prescriptions increased about 5% during the most recent four-week period compared to the prior four-week period, signaling that growth that I previously described in recent weeks going into Q2. Of the approximately 268,000 prescriptions that were filled in Q1, about 168,000 were covered prescriptions, representing approximately 63% of the total, while about 100,000 were filled with cash pay.
The incremental IQVIA reporting gap mentioned on our previous call was resolved by mid-March, and the TRx numbers we are reporting today include the prescriptions that IQVIA has not captured. On a year-over-year basis, covered prescriptions grew about 91%, and total prescriptions filled grew about 115%. The higher growth in total prescriptions reflects the impact of introducing the cash pay option for Medicare patients as of April 2025. Weekly TRxs in March approached the previous December highs. Now, as we begin Q2, we've seen two of the first three weeks in April reach new all-time prescription highs for covered prescriptions. I mentioned earlier that we view NBRx prescription growth as an early indicator of how our strategy is playing out.
We believe NBRx writing is the leading signal for a growing patient base, as it represents a patient being switched to VOQUEZNA prescriptions for the first time. Many of these new-to-brand prescriptions progress to consistent refill prescriptions in future quarters, thus driving growth. In Q1, we saw covered NBRx grow approximately 11% over Q4 of 2025, signaling that we are continuing to see a solid rate of new patient starts on VOQUEZNA. The proportion of NBRx being written by gastroenterologists versus other specialties has increased over the last few quarters, indicating the early effect of our strategy focus on gastroenterology. Introducing more new patients with GERD VOQUEZNA is the first step to drive durable growth. Persistent refills for these patients contribute to growth in future quarters.
Among a cohort of patients that started VOQUEZNA in 2024, we saw an average of approximately six bottles worth of VOQUEZNA dispensed over a subsequent 12-month period. One note on this analysis is that the analysis may actually understate persistence to some degree, as an additional 18% of the patients who had stopped VOQUEZNA through that analysis. Actually restarted therapy within 12- months of their original prescription. Lastly, we've recently been hearing questions from investors about a possible new P-CABs entrant into the U.S. market. Internally, we're preparing for a potential second P-CABs approval in the U.S. in 2027. Last week, two Tegoprazan abstracts related to the Erosive Esophagitis phase III trial for this product were released ahead of this year's DDW conference, where the data will be presented next week. The abstracts provide a preliminary summary of the data.
As anticipated, the Tegoprazan results support the effectiveness of P-CABs as a class. While cross-trial comparisons have inherent limitations, and the studies were not a head-to-head evaluation, it may be helpful to our investors to note that in our VOQUEZNA phase III Erosive Esophagitis trial, approximately 93% of patients in all categories of Erosive Esophagitis achieved healing of their erosions by eight weeks. In the separate recently reported Tegoprazan study, approximately 85% of patients in all categories of Erosive Esophagitis achieved healing of their erosions by eight weeks. We continue to feel confident in VOQUEZNA's robust clinical data profile and are executing our commercial strategy in the GERD market. Overall, we remain confident in our outlook for 2026. Our foundation is strong. The sales force is implementing our Gastroenterology-Focused Strategy, and new patients continue to start therapy.
We are fully in execution mode as we continue to work to drive TRx and sales growth. I'll now turn the call over to Sanjeev to take you through our financial updates.
Thank you, Steve, and hello, everyone. We have a lot to cover, so let's jump right into our Q1 results. Revenues for quarter one were $58.3 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 104% and a sequential growth of 1% over Q4 2025. Our Q1 2026 revenue was somewhat light compared to our internal expectation due to market access seasonality and other factors like winter storm and deployment timing of new sales force team members. However, with recent weekly prescriptions demonstrating growth relative to early Q1 and our expanded sales force in place, we remain confident in our outlook for VOQUEZNA in 2026. Our gross till net discount for Q1 came in at the lower end of our 55%-59% guidance range because of channel mix for quarter's prescription.
Our gross margin was in line with our guidance at approximately 80% for Q1. As described during last quarter's call, this now reflects certain third-party fulfillment costs being accounted for as cost of goods sold instead of Gross to Net adjustments. Q1 cash operating expenses were about $56.2 million, reflecting continued disciplined expense management. This co-sequential step-up was anticipated and tied to three main drivers. Expansion of our sales force, our annual national sales meeting in February, and the ramp-up of our phase II EoE trial. In fact, I'm pleased to report that the EoE trial is enrolling ahead of schedule, and as a result, we are anticipating top-line data by late Q4 2026 or early Q1 2027. Importantly, we continue to demonstrate expense discipline across the organization with year-on-year cash Operating Expenses down about 43% compared to Q1 2025.
We reported a loss from operations excluding Stock-Based Compensation of approximately $9.9 million. We ended the quarter with about $181 million in cash and cash equivalents, which reflects roughly $15 million used in Q1 after netting out the flows from our equity raise and debt amendment. The increase in cash usage compared to Q4 2025 was driven by the timing of our annual corporate bonus payout and changes in the working capital due to timing of certain payments. We anticipated these dynamics and remain confident in our path to operating profitability and cash flow positivity. Overall, our balance sheet remains strong and as a result of our operations and the deliberate capital structure enhancement we did at the start of the year.
Based on our current operating plan, we believe our cash on hand, along with the anticipated future cash generated from operations, will be sufficient to invest in our business, satisfy all outstanding debt obligations at all times without the need for another debt or equity raise. Let me speak about our financial guidance for 2026. We're maintaining all guidance ranges and estimates provided during last quarterly call. We continue to anticipate 2026 net revenue between $320 million to $345 million. We continue to believe our Gross to Net discount will be within the 55%-59% range and gross margin will be approximately 80%. As for spend, we anticipate that Cash Operating Expenses, excluding Stock-Based Compensation, will be between $235 million and $255 million.
As we think about cadence, we continue to believe revenues will be more heavily weighted towards the back half of the year. We expect expenses to modestly step up in Q2, reflecting full quarter's worth of cost of the expanded Sales force. Lastly, we continue to anticipate achieving operating profitability, excluding Stock-Based Compensation, by Q3 and for full year 2026, with positive cash flow in 2027. We remain focused on executing with discipline, and we feel confident in our ability to deliver on our GI Focus Strategy. We ended the quarter with strong balance sheet and believe we will strengthen our financial position as revenues grow. In summary, our priorities remain clear. First, drive efficient growth towards achieving $1 billion from GI prescriptions. Second, support strategic investments where needed, while continuing to be disciplined on spend.
As we look ahead, I am encouraged by the efforts and dedication of our commercial and R&D teams. We're energized by the opportunity in front of us, and we believe our internal metrics show the momentum is building. With that, I will now turn the call back to Steve for his closing remarks. Steve.
Thank you, Sanjeevv, for the detailed financial review. With an expanded and trained Sales force executing our Gastroenterology-Focused Strategy and continued expense discipline, we believe we have a clear path to strengthening the revenue trajectory and achieving operating profitability in the months ahead. Thank you to our team and our investors for your continued dedication and support. We look forward to continuing to serve the patients in need of VOQUEZNA. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Yes, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star one one again. Again, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question or comment comes from the line of Yatin Suneja from Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions and congrats on good performance. Two questions for me. First one is on the competition. Steven, I think you just mentioned a little bit about how you see their product. I'd love to understand from a, from a market dynamic perspective, what do you expect? You are right now the only branded that is doing the heavy lifting. Do you expect the market to expand or them to take some share? Just love your articulation there. Then maybe second for Sanjeev Narula. I think you touched a little bit on the Gross to Net dynamic. I understand, I think there was better Gross to Net yield. Your guidance for 55%-59% still stays.
Is there some room there for an upside as we go into second quarter or third quarter? Generally they tend to be a little bit better. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thanks so much for both of the questions and the kind sentiments. As you described, we are in fact tracking the evolution of Tegoprazan, as you know, they start to build awareness. A wareness is at a pretty low level in the market right now because they don't have a current commercial organization, they're in the NDA review process. Certainly we expect that as a second P-CABs entrant comes to market, there's a shift in sentiment from vonoprazan or VOQUEZNA is a new product and I have to learn about a new product to now there's a new category, and I have to learn about the new category and think about how to integrate this new category into my treatment.
That helps to build awareness within the gastroenterology community and generally what prior, you know, market experience for a number of products has shown is that the first mover in that space gets the lion's share of the market b ut there's a growth in awareness of a category as a second entrant comes in, and we're certainly optimistic in that regard. The other thing is that as we look at the data, there's just no compelling reason for anyone to switch a patient from VOQUEZNA to, you know, from vonoprazan to Tegoprazan. That's the data doesn't suggest that a patient's gonna do better. We think that the market share that we've won and the presence in the market that we've won is really quite solid. We are going to be continuing to grow our presence in the market.
We've got very strong market share among several thousand gastroenterologists, and that expands every month as the Sales force spends more time. You know, we've got at least another year to be building that depth of awareness and building the habit among gastroenterologists around prescribing VOQUEZNA. I think that all positions us very nicely, you know, we think growing awareness of this category will just help build it.
Yeah. Yeah, to the question about Gross to Net. As you said in our prepared remarks, it came in at the lower end of our guidance and the guidance at 55%-59%. I think what happens on our business or any business is there is a channel mix that go on quarter to quarter and that could change the Gross to Net percentage. Excuse me, let me get some water. In first quarter, we see a higher proportion of cash scripts, and what that does is that drives gross to net to be a little lower because cash scripts don't have any Gross to Net item.
I don't expect us to deviate from our range, but it's going to be within the range and every quarter, you know, could be different because of different dynamics that are going on. For full year, that's how we're maintaining our Gross to Net range at 55%-59%. Very good. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Umer Raffat from Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to touch up just broadly on your observations commercially with the readjusted commercial focus and what the feedback is and how much of a follow-through you guys are continuing to expect with the turnaround we're seeing on IMS already. Secondly, as we think about the path for the company forward in terms of heading towards better than breakeven, et cetera, what are the priorities from a potential M&A perspective? I'm not talking large deals. I'm just saying to enable the OpEx to be levered across a larger sales base in the areas you're already operating in. Thank you very much.
Umer, thanks so much for both of the questions. Thinking about first the commercial focus and, you know, what we're seeing, we are, you know, feeling and hearing from the field, the same kinds of things that you can see in the IQVIA or the IMS numbers in recent weeks. There is growing activity, growing momentum in the adoption pattern. We've got, you know, territories regularly seeing all-time highs in terms of the new prescription volume that is happening. One of the reasons that we spent a little bit of time today talking about NBRx trends rather than just TRx trends, because the easy thing to look at from IQVIA numbers is sort of look at the TRx trends.
What we think about as a forward indicator of that commercial momentum is how effectively are we converting new patients. Those new patient starts are really where we can have an impact. When a sales rep is in an office working with a gastroenterologist about, you know, thinking about what kinds of patients are appropriate for VOQUEZNA, they're not changing the established base of patients that are already getting PPIs and aren't in the office. The only patients they can switch are the patients that they're seeing in the office at that time. That's really the new to brand volume, and that's where we move the needle first, and then that foretells the future momentum. We expect that the momentum on new to brand conversions predicts that we're gonna have continued momentum on TRx growth, and that should show up in the future quarters.
And quite enthusiastic about that feedback and that dynamic in all of our conversations with physicians and with our field personnel. Our field team is feeling pretty solid about that. Then path forward in terms of M&A priorities and the kinds of things. There's not urgency for us to bring a second thing in. We are starting outreach to identify other GI assets that would be complementary to bring into our Sales force. Those could be commercial products or they could be phase II or phase III products that we could launch before our LOE date of, you know, 2033 or 2034. We've got a few years to identify those assets and bring them in.
There's not a great urgency to do so right now because, quite honestly, I don't want to distract the field. Team is focused on conversations around VOQUEZNA with accounts, and there is still a lot of education and market depth to build in terms of all of those conversations. You know, we're starting to evaluate those programs. There's nothing imminent, but we are looking at really interesting things and also looking at new applications for VOQUEZNA. We're doing the EoE phase II trial. We've been evaluating the potential to look at as-needed dosing of VOQUEZNA. There's lots of interesting talk around potential synergy of using VOQUEZNA when patients are on GLP-1s associated with the GERD that arises in the context of GLP-1 use.
There are a number of really interesting opportunities that could be expansion opportunities for us just within the VOQUEZNA opportunity set.
Umer, just to look at the cash flow opportunity in the company, as you pointed out, with the strategy in place and the, you know, us generating the positive cash flow next year and the cap structure we, you know, we enhanced beginning of the year. I think that gives us the flexibility to meet obviously our obligation, but we'll have the flexibility of additional cash to invest as we expand VOQUEZNA, you know, potentially in a couple of years, maybe do primary care, and maybe combine that with the DTC. We'll have the resources and the cash flow to be able to do that. We feel pretty good about what the trajectory is, and we're gonna take best use of the opportunity.
Thank you very much, guys.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Kristen Kluska from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is now open.
Hi, good morning. Congrats everybody on all the great growth you've seen, especially when looking at the trends from last year. As the breadth and depth of your GI interactions are increasing, how are physicians understanding in a real-world scenario the additive benefits of VOQUEZNA? How do these measures and the patient feedback they get then translate to them potentially recommending the product to other patients they have?
Kristen, thank you. Thanks for the context on both physician understanding and the importance of patient awareness and patient advocacy, because both become really important components in how this product grows. What we're seeing is as we have time in the market, I mean, we're now two years into the launch. The physicians who have adopted VOQUEZNA as a meaningful part of their practice are having the opportunity to get feedback from patients about the significant improvement that VOQUEZNA provides. Interestingly, we just did a round of market research where we were doing interviews with a significant number of physicians and a significant number of patients.
One of the interesting findings from that research was, you know, often there are clinical trials, and you see a clinical outcome, and then the physician doesn't really know whether or not they can measure that clinical outcome. That's not the case here. The case here is what we see in our clinical trials, which is better outcomes with VOQUEZNA, certainly in Erosive Esophagitis patients, but also significant alleviation of pain and an increase in the heartburn-free experience for patients with Non-Erosive Reflux. Physicians are seeing that from their patients. They are hearing from their patients how much better they feel.
Every one of those feedback points, every time a physician talks to a patient who then comes back and says, "Doc, I've not felt this good in years," that conversation is a reinforcing conversation that cements in the mind of the physician, this really is a transformative experience for my patients. That's part of what drives growth. Part of what drives growth is our sales and marketing activities and the time spent in the office educating the physicians. A large part of what drives growth is physician experience and feedback from their patients that then causes them to want to prescribe it in more patients. The other thing that happens is not only do patients understand the benefit and have that conversation with their physician, but this becomes the presage to our future expansion back into primary care.
Those same patients who are telling their gastroenterologist how much better they feel are gonna go back to their primary care physician for their annual physical next year. They're gonna be having exactly that conversation with their primary care physician who referred them to the GI. It's going to naturally ask, "How did that go? How are you feeling? Are you still having the pain that you were experiencing?" That conversation leads to an education of the primary care community and positions us in future years to expand meaningfully in primary care and positions us for possible future initiatives that broaden the outreach.
Okay. Thank you. As the database for patients that have been treated with VOQUEZNA continues to increase, particularly maybe some more severe patients as you do more work with GIs, are you collecting any, you know, again, not understanding this isn't a clinical trial setting, but are you collecting any anecdotes to give you any clues as to where this therapy could potentially be studied for in the future? If you were to expand into other indications in the future, are there ways to also strengthen the IP around those opportunities as well? Thanks again.
Absolutely we are learning from physicians about the breadth of use. again, in the context of some of the recent market research, we're starting to evaluate this. We're starting to look at a number of different indications. How would physicians think about using a product on an as-needed basis, on a long-term basis for patients? Who may not require daily therapy, but PPIs can't really be used that way. That becomes an opportunity to switch a different population of patients and grow utilization. I mentioned earlier, to one of the questions that, there is an increasing prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux, symptom severity in patients who are on GLP-1s. That becomes an increasing, you know, prevalence conversation.
I've been having a series of dinner conversations with gastroenterologists in recent weeks, and it's come up several times that they are now starting to see patients who they're having to have conversations with them about whether or not to titrate their GLP-1 because of the side effect profile of the reflux and the heartburn that they're experiencing. Patients really don't wanna reduce their GLP-1s if they're losing weight, but they're having significant GERD. That becomes a significant opportunity, certainly in patients who are having severe consequences. A lot of patients with Erosive Esophagitis they may progress to Barrett's and progress to having a risk of esophageal cancer. There are a number of potential broadening thoughts that physicians have around how do I consider what patients I'm using this product for?
Those conversations are evolving as we're learning about the breadth of use that physicians want to have.
Thank you.
Your other question was on potential IP. I apologize I didn't touch that. I'm gonna probably just, you know, pass on answering questions about what potential IP we might have around what future products or indications. We'll evaluate that as we get there.
Thank you, Steve.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Paul Choi from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Hi. Thank you. Good morning. Congrats on the good quarter. To the degree you guys have insight, from either the prescription data or physician feedback, can you maybe help us understand or break down how much of the incremental prescription growth is driven by NERD versus GERD? That would be very helpful for clarification. My second question is, as you think about the, you know, potential entrance of a second P-CAB into the category over the intermediate term, you know, do you envision the category becoming more managed? If that is the case, do you think PPIs would be an appropriate analog here, given that the category eventually had multiple entrants? Thank you very much.
Paul, thanks for the questions. In terms of the relative use, we don't always have visibility on the underlying diagnosis that drove the specific prescription for every one of our TRx, whether it's a NERD patient or an EE patient or a past EE patient b ecause you may have a patient that had erosive esophagitis and now is having symptoms again, may not have erosions, but the physician is concerned that they might get erosions. There are patients that sort of cross over between the two categories. What we see is generally a gastroenterologist will start by putting their most severe patients on VOQUEZNA, and then they will grow their utilization over time.
Often the starting point is the Erosive Esophagitis patient who has severe erosions, who's failed multiple rounds of PPIs, has failed BID PPIs. There's just no other alternative. They don't have any other way to help this patient. They need to help them heal. That's the patient with which a gastroenterologist may start. When they see success with that patient, they see that VOQUEZNA has actually enabled that patient's erosions to heal. Then the conversation that our representative is having in the office is about, you know, how the physician can start using it more broadly. Maybe it's to all of their Grade C and D Eerosive Esophagitis patients. If they see success in those patients, broaden it to all of your Erosive Esophagitis patients.
As they're seeing success in those patients, why not broaden it to your patients that have Non-Erosive Reflux but are still having significant pain and are still having nighttime heartburn or not able to sleep or are not able to tolerate certain foods? There's a natural evolution in a physician's adoption that starts from the more severe patients to the less severe patients, starts with Erosive Esophagitis and then moves to Non-Erosive Reflux. That's just the natural cadence with which a gastroenterologist tends to adopt this product. We see that evolution. That's there's some skew probably toward more Erosive Esophagitis patients in the early adoption years, and we continue to see those patients being converted but then expand into Non-Erosive Reflux patients.
In terms of how the market evolves with a second P-CAB entrant, I mean, there are so many examples where there's been a category where multiple entrants came in over the course of time and the category continued to grow substantially. We would, as I commented earlier, I think we just expect to see the category of P-CAB adoption grow as physicians become ever more familiar with this mechanism, ever more familiar with the efficacy of these products. We have a product with really terrific outcomes in which physicians have really significant confidence.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Paul.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Joseph Stringer from Needham & Company. Mr. Stringer, your line is now open.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Just to follow up on a previous answer you gave on the primary care setting. I know this is part of your future expansion plans, but just curious if you have any early quantitative metrics on the patients that cycle from Primary Care through a specialist back to Primary Care, for example, what's the recapture rate from the Initial Patient referral, you know, those patients coming back to the PCP and how is that evolving over time? Presumably that's already occurring to some extent, but just curious if you had any early color here or commentary that would be helpful. Thank you.
Justin, thanks for the question. I think that's gonna be a really important element for us to track and evolve in our understanding over the next couple of years. It's not one where we have significant metrics yet because we're still in early days. We made the GI pivot just about 12 months ago. With that GI pivot a year ago, we haven't had enough time for a significant number of those patients to make it back to their primary care physician to then start getting scripts from their primary care physician. Anecdotally, I would tell you, it was interesting, one of the observations from our analytics team is that we are starting to see primary care physicians writing scripts for VOQUEZNA whom we've never called on. That's an indication of exactly that pattern.
The only way that a physician we've never called on is writing a script for VOQUEZNA is if a patient came back to them and asked for it, and that's exactly the pattern that we want to see. As to the breadth of those metrics and exactly how we track that's still early days, and we don't have all of those worked out.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Annabel Samimy from Stifel. I mean, Stifel, your line is now open.
Hi, thanks so much for taking my questions. Wondering if there's anything that you could share about the dynamics between the cash pay and the covered patients. Do you see any increasing usage of the cash pay market as you're moving into more Medicare populations? Separately, I guess, it's great to see the EoE trial enrolling so quickly. Is that an indication that there could be bigger demand than off-label PPIs would suggest? Can you just give us a little color around what's driving that? Thank you.
On the dynamics for cash pay versus covered, I'll start and then Sanjiv, if you have additional insights, feel free to jump in on this. We saw a little bit of a bump up in the percentage of patients who received a script on a cash basis rather than a covered basis in Q1. We fully expect that every Q1 because there will be patients who, with their health plan resets, are going to have a high deductible plan and where they had coverage with a low copay. Our copay buy-down programs don't bring them down to a loan of price, and so they would end up opting for the cash pay price. We think that's a Q1 phenomenon.
Going forward, I would expect it to normalize more consistently with historic levels in terms of the ratio of cash pay to covered. We don't try to manage that number precisely. What we try to do is really maximize prescriptions and then maximize how many of those prescriptions can get coverage and that number will evolve over time. I think there's a little bit of a Q1 bump that we experienced.
We already, Annabel, we're already seeing that number starting to moderate in the script data after Q1 to Steve's point. I think that's a natural phenomenon of what happens in quarter one.
Yeah. For EoE, what I can describe is what we've heard from the clinical sites, but I can't really extrapolate it out to the entire market yet. We're certainly seeing the fast enrollment of this trial reflect significant interest in a first-line therapy that doesn't have the significant burden of some of the immunologic changes that the more aggressive therapies would have. I mean, if a patient progresses to dupilumab, for example, it, you know, that's a more advanced patient. First- line treatment as standard of care for many EoE patients is in fact today PPI therapy. This is the first big study of acid suppression therapy as a treatment modality in a well-controlled clinical trial.
There was a high level of interest among the physicians in the clinical trial to enroll patients, lots of enthusiasm for it, and obviously we're enrolling ahead of schedule, so certainly pleased with that. We haven't done enough market research on it to predict exactly how broadly that's going to suggest the market opportunity is in EoE when we commercialize it. We'll do that after we see the data from this trial as we're planning out our phase III trial.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Dennis Ding from Jefferies. Mr. Ding, your line is open.
Thank you for taking our questions and congrats on a great quarter. Can you talk a little bit more about the shape of growth to net throughout the year? Should we expect it to worsen towards the top end of 55%-59% like it did last year as the percentage of cash pay comes down? Secondly, Steve Basta talked on a broadening category on a new P-CAB entrant, but curious on your thoughts more specifically for VOQUEZNA. How do you see a new competitor impacting the sales trajectory in 2027 and beyond? Do you expect any pressure from payers that would erode price? Thank you.
Hi, thank you for your question. On the first one, the shape of Gross to Net, I would stay short of making a prediction about the quarter-to-quarter number. That's the reason we give a range because as you know very well, this is entirely based on the mix of business in each quarter. Clearly quarter one gets impacted by a little bit by the cash scripts. In the subsequent quarter, there are so many other dynamics that go on. It's, it's kinda hard to say one quarter what percentage is gonna be. That's why we wanna stay within the range as we did last year.
Yep. Dennis Ding, on your second question around the shape of the market in the context of a new competitor entry, I don't think we've got enough specifics yet on how the second product may come to market, what their positioning is gonna be, it's really hard for us to predict what their market strategy is gonna be and therefore what our response will be. What we are very confident about is the momentum that we're building within the gastroenterology community, the conviction the physicians have around this product. I mean, again, our top 3,000 writers, now one out of every three new patients that they are switching acid suppression therapies, they're switching them to VOQUEZNA. That's an enormous share of mind that we have with a broad population of the gastroenterology community.
In fact, that is broadening, and we've got another year at least before a second entrant comes in to be building that market share and to be building that mind share. That I think will position us really well in the context of the competitive dynamic in the future.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Mr. Matthew Caufield from H.C. Wainwright & Co. Mr. Caufield, your line is open.
Hi. Thanks, guys, and good morning. Are there any further insights into the waiting for revenue growth expected between first half and second half? Additionally, are there thoughts on how we can best expect OpEx trends to continue for the year? I believe there was mention of the OpEx being up in 2Q. Thanks again.
Matt, thank you for your question. I think it's safe to say the revenue trajectory will follow similar trends as last year. I don't wanna get into the percentage because if I do that, then I'm actually giving you guidance for a quarter, next quarter, which I don't wanna do that. I think it's fair to say. I said in my prepared remarks, it's gonna be second half weighted business, which is what happened last year, and I don't see that changing this year as well. That's number one. Number two, on the OpEx. I think couple of things will happen. Quarter two will see a slight bump in the expenses from quarter one, and that's precisely for two reasons.
One is the EoE trial is ahead of schedule, and that's a good news. There may be a little bit more expense timing-wise in quarter two than we had earlier thought about. Number two, is the sales force is fully in place. In quarter one, we were still hiring, and that hiring is now complete, and the sales force is fully on board. That impact will also reflect in quarter two. That's gonna be marginal, and after that I expect our operating expenses to be more or less stable.
Excellent. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Martin Oster from Raymond James. Mr. Oster, your line is now open.
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Appreciate it. I thought there was some pretty interesting data about New- to- brand prescription share amongst the top 300, top 3,000 GIs. Curious if you could give us a little bit more context around that snapshot in terms of sort of how much progress has been made since the new GI-focused strategy has come in, and then if you have a sense of what's a realistic ceiling for higher prescribers in terms of new to brand Rx? Thanks.
Martin, I mean, Thank you for the commentary. I share your enthusiasm that the new to brand data actually is a really strong clarifying indicator for where we expect the business is evolving. It's a metric that we use internally in our forecasting and in a lot of our planning activities, is how those trends are going. What we have seen in every category of physician that we call on, whether it's a gastroenterologist or a gastroenterology APP or a Primary Care Physician or Primary Care Physician APP as well, as we look at the New- to- brand prescription trends, and one of the metrics we use is New- to- brand prescriptions per sales call, those numbers continue to go up. They've been going up for the last two years.
They continue to go up. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, we are driving increasing effectiveness in those categories. Obviously now we're focusing on GI and GI APP as the core call point. Those haven't capped out. Those are continuing to improve, we would expect to continue to improve those over time. That I don't have a clear sense for where a cap is in that process. It is encouraging that we are already at the 45% level. I don't know if it caps out at, you know, 50%, 70%, 90% of their new to brand prescriptions get converted.
One of the other things that happens is as we convert more New- to- brand prescriptions and those patients stay on, the underlying TRx percentage in those offices continues to grow because more higher and higher percentage of their patients are already on VOQUEZNA, and we're continuing to convert the new patients. You'll see the TRx percentage grow toward the NBRx percentage. Where right now we've got 20% penetration in TRx volume in the top 300 accounts, we've got 45% penetration in NBRx, which suggests that we're going to be growing that 20% number toward the 45%. The two may never completely match up, one drives the other.
That's part of why we're focusing on that as the core growth metric and one of our core effectiveness and efficiency metrics in our call strategies and the call allocations.
Thanks, Steve. Yeah, it was really helpful incremental context. Hope it's a metric you'll periodically revisit in the future with us.
Yep. Yeah, I don't know that we'll do it every quarter, but we will certainly provide periodic updates.
Sounds great. Thanks.
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Chase Knickerbocker from Craig-Hallum. Your line is now open, sir.
Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just one quick one from me, and sorry for it to be on competition again here, but, Steve, I just wondered your thoughts on one thing specifically. The way that the potential competitor, the next P-CAB potentially, or the way that study was constructed, there's a chance that there might be a couple more superiority claims at launch. So, to what extent do you think that matters? Can you kind of compare and contrast to how, you know, you think the first mover advantage that you've built up with the, you know, 1 million-plus prescriptions since launch and the clinical experience here kind of pairs that? Thanks.
I, you know, I don't have complete visibility on exactly how this competitor is gonna launch or what kind of Sales force they're gonna build, and so it's hard to predict exactly what happens in that marketplace. As for the data, when we look at the core data from the abstract that's available from DDW, and we think about what's important to a physician. Again, we were talking earlier about the natural pattern of adoption. The natural pattern of adoption for a physician considering switching patients to a better acid suppression strategy if their prior PPI strategy wasn't working, is that they start their adoption curve with their most severe patients, and then as they see a product work, they move into a broader population of patients.
What we see with our data is when you put Erosive Esophagitis patients on VOQUEZNA, 93% of them heal their erosions within eight weeks. That's exactly what a physician wants to see. Every physician who is seeing that today and every physician who sees that over the next year as they put Erosive Esophagitis patients on VOQUEZNA, is going to see that their erosions are healing and this product clearly works, and it clearly produces really good outcomes. They're having clear conversations with their patients about how much better they feel because their pain is substantially relieved, you know, almost immediately, literally, you know, within hours and, you know, on the first day. I'll tell you, as a patient, the first day that I took VOQUEZNA, I felt a whole lot better. It's just really quick how this product works.
What the physician experiences with VOQUEZNA is enormously satisfying and enormously positive. They see their patients heal, they see, they hear feedback from their patients that they feel better, and they grow their utilization over time. That doesn't get disrupted at all because someone has some statistics measure in some other clinical trial when you know you've got a product that's gonna produce 93% healing rates and really good outcomes for your patients. I just don't see that having any impact in the market in any meaningful context.
Very clear, Steven. Thank you.
Thank you. I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. At this time, I would like to thank everyone for participating. Thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day. Speakers stand by.