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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Dec 11, 2019

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Photronics Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. If you require any further assistance, please press star zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, December 11, 2019. I would now like to turn the conference over to Troy Dewar, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Troy Dewar
VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Photronics

Thank you, Joel. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our review of Photronics' 2019 Fourth Quarter Financial results. Joining me this morning are Dr. Peter Kirlin, Chief Executive Officer, John Jordan, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Dr. Christopher Progler, Vice President, Chief Technology Officer and Strategic Planning. The press release we issued earlier this morning, along with the presentation material which accompanies our remarks, is available on the Investor Relations section of our webpage. Comments made by any participants on today's call may include forward-looking statements that include such words as anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, forecast, and our view. These forward-looking statements are based upon a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking information. At this time, I will turn the call over to Peter.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Thank you, Troy, and good morning, everyone. We entered 2019 with momentum, achieving record quarterly and annual revenue due to strong design activity across the majority of our customer base, increased capacity as we ramped production at two new manufacturing facilities, and outstanding work by our entire organization to win new business and expand share. In addition to record total revenue, we raised the bar with record quarterly revenue for IC and FPD photomasks, while annual FPD revenues also reached a new high. It was a superb quarter, capping off a great year, and I'm very pleased with our performance. With growing revenue and high operating leverage, profit margins expanded. Combined with consistent efforts to control cost, we delivered 13.7% operating margins, better than last quarter and last year, despite a larger operating footprint and growing headcount.

For the year, operating margins were 9.5%, a remarkable achievement given the challenges we faced, including headwinds from startup expenses, the semiconductor and LCD industry downturns, and growing geopolitical uncertainty. These outstanding operating results generated an EPS of $0.15 per share for the quarter, which is in line with our expectations and included significant foreign exchange loss below the operating line. In addition to record revenue and solid earnings, we maintained a strong cash balance, ending the quarter with $154 million in net cash, cash generated from operations more than offset our strategic uses of cash during the quarter, including share repurchases. With the bulk of our China investment now behind us and growing confidence in our long-term ability to generate cash, we have restarted our share repurchase activity.

We see this as effective use of cash to invest in what we believe to be an undervalued asset, while also reducing the number of shares outstanding. We spent approximately $11 million for shares in the last two months of the fourth quarter, since announcing our new $100 million share repurchase program at the end of August. We anticipate our purchases will continue for the foreseeable future, given the value we see in this activity. The fourth quarter was a great end to a superb year. For the ninth consecutive quarter, we achieved year-over-year revenue growth, and for the second successive year, we attained record revenue. Our balance sheet remains strong following two years of major investment, and we are well on the way to meet the financial targets we established nearly two years ago.

I am very proud of what we have been able to accomplish and remain confident in our long-term strategy. As I meet with investors, the top two questions I receive relate to China. These come in one of two forms, the current outlook for our business in China and how the U.S.-China trade discussions are impacting our business. I would like to address each of these, starting with the latter. The trusted philosophy in management is to focus on things you can control.

When it comes to the current geopolitical environment, there is much that we cannot control that could easily become a distraction. As we see it, our challenge is to focus on our customers while effectively managing our operations in a dynamic, uncertain environment. During our third quarter conference call, we stated that uncertainty created by actions taken by the U.S. a dministration had begun to have a negative impact on some of our Chinese customers' demand.

However, the impact was concentrated and relatively small. In the fourth quarter, the impact flipped to become positive and more pervasive. As trade discussions have gone unresolved and certain high-profile companies in China have been placed on restricted trade lists, the resulting uncertainty has motivated Chinese companies to seek local solutions for their semiconductor needs as they try to become more independent and self-sufficient. In our view, the Made in China 2025 initiative has been irreversibly accelerated. One outcome of this is a growing need for photomasks. With a manufacturing facility in China supported by our global manufacturing footprint, we were able to quickly respond to these needs to enable our Chinese customers' success.

In fact, our IC capacity in Taiwan and Korea was sold out in Q4 as a result of satisfying the sudden uptick in China demand, and PDMC set a new revenue record in Q4. We are now exactly where we want to be, ramping the Xiamen factory into an oversold Asia IC manufacturing network. Looking forward, even if a trade deal is finalized, we believe this trend will continue as many Chinese technology companies are concerned about future restrictions and want to avoid any potential impact from trade wars. Turning to the outlook for our business, it is very clear that China has become a mature region for us. Just over three years ago, we announced the first of two greenfield investments to build state-of-the-art manufacturing sites. Today, both of these facilities are complete, and we are in the process of ramping them to full production.

The FPD facility in Hefei began production at the end of the second quarter and has ramped quickly due to strong end-market demand and relatively short qualification times. The IC facility in Xiamen, which is part of a JV with DNP, began qualifications in the third quarter. As a result of 9-month to 12-month qualification times, it's trailing the FPD ramp by approximately four quarters. During the fourth quarter, we generated $11 million in revenue from mass-produced in China, nearly all FPD. In parallel with expanding our manufacturing operations into China, we have also intensely focused on building a strong book of business there. Revenues to China were a record in the fourth quarter and represented 33% of our total revenue.

Not only did we set a new record in the quarter, but our total was an outstanding 49% better than the previous high-water mark that was established just one quarter ago. For the year, revenue of product shipped to China was 27% of our total revenue. To put that in perspective, when we announced our Xiamen investment in 2016, China represented about 5% of our total revenue. In just three years, we have increased our China revenue fivefold. Over that time, we have entered into long-term purchase agreements with four customers in China, two IC and two FPD. As you would expect, they are well represented in our China revenue, corresponding to just under 60% of the total. However, we also have numerous other customers that make up the other 40%.

This means our business is diverse and not overly reliant on any one customer or product, which makes our revenue stream healthier and more sustainable. Even now, we are engaged with other customers on discussions for long-term agreements, which will further enhance the quality of our China business. As has been the case for most of last year, FPD demand was very strong for us in all regions, particularly China. FPD revenue this quarter was $43.7 million, which corresponds to an annual run rate of $175 million. 61% of this was for customers in China. When we presented our long-term outlook in early 2018, we indicated our FPD revenues would double to about $200 million annually, which included Hefei production plus growth at other facilities. Since then, capacity additions in the LCD market have outpaced growth in demand, resulting in a market downturn.

As a result, the near-term outlook for G10.5 Plus production has softened, as has the associated photomask demand. Conversely, AMOLED demand has strengthened more rapidly than we expected two years ago. In addition to a vibrant Korean business, we are now shipping to more than half a dozen Chinese AMOLED display manufacturers, whose customers are focused on penetrating the global market for premium smartphones, the most advanced of which incorporate foldable displays. Recently, BOE announced a significant increase in plans for the production of flexible AMOLED panels in 2020. Dynamic markets create opportunities, and our AMOLED outlook is now much stronger than we projected in 2018. With a balance of these puts and takes, we see China being a very attractive region for FPD investment well into the future. Earlier this year, we ordered two Prexision Lite 8 mask writers from Mycronic.

These will be important assets as we optimize our existing operations, allowing us to expand capacity for mainstream masks, which are used for certain layers and mask sets for high-end applications such as AMOLED, and large-screen OLED TVs that are manufactured on G8 or smaller panels. Samsung, our largest FPD customer, recently reported plans to expand their QD- OLED capacity. These new tools, by optimizing the balance of throughput and resolution, effectively map our global factory into the sweet spot of this expanded range of applications. With the success of our business in China, we expect to operate Hefei at full capacity for the remainder of the quarter. When we designed our Hefei cleanroom, we included the option for future expansion within the building's footprint to allow us to grow without the need to add bricks and mortar.

The display market in China is very strong, and we have established ourselves as the domestic market and technology leader. We are therefore considering accelerating our phase II investment to extend this leadership position and realize additional financial benefits more quickly, enhancing our return on investment. 2019 was a great year for Photronics. We made significant strides towards meeting our long-term target. Revenue is running at record levels across the organization. Production is ramping at two new manufacturing facilities. As utilization levels rise, we anticipate growing earnings more quickly than revenue. We have a clear line of sight to additional organic growth. Our balance sheet is strong and can support investments for profitable growth. We are very optimistic. At this time, I will turn the call over to John for his commentary on our performance and outlook.

John P. Jordan
EVP and CFO, Photronics

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone. We saw strength across nearly all of our end markets in the fourth quarter, resulting in record quarterly revenue of $156.3 million, 13% better than the previous quarter and 8% better than the fourth quarter of last year. Sectors that have been strong remained strong, and other sectors strengthened during the quarter. Our new manufacturing facilities in China contribute $11.2 million in revenue, further fueling growth. It was a great quarter and demonstrates the benefit of our broad and deep product lineup and global footprint. IC revenue was a record in the fourth quarter, up 12% sequentially and 1% year-over-year. Demand growth was broad-based, with increases in logic and memory and across technology nodes, encompassing high-end and mainstream. From a regional standpoint, China and Taiwan were notable areas of strength.

While revenue of IC products shipped into China grew significantly, up 72% from the previous quarter, the predominance of these masks was produced outside of China. As we've reported previously, qualification for IC products takes 9 months- 12 months, so production from our new Xiamen facility will be increasing over the next few quarters, providing another leg of growth as those qualifications are completed. Underlying IC market demand is expected to be stable to improving, influenced somewhat by normal seasonality. FPD revenue was also a record, 15% higher than the previous record established last quarter. The drivers remained the same, strong demand for mobile displays and increased production from our Hefei facility. We do not anticipate any weakening of these trends, so we expect the growth in Hefei to continue as production ramps. Gross margin improved sequentially. The impact from operating leverage expanded margins to 24.4%.

Operating margin also improved to 13.7%, the effect of increased revenue and lower operating expenses. The headwind from China operations was $4.1 million, and our Hefei operation was close to break-even in Q4. Total year operating expense margin, excluding China expenses, was essentially flat year-on-year. Other expense was $6.1 million, almost entirely due to unrealized foreign exchange loss, primarily in China and Korea. Minority interest was essentially flat compared with the third quarter. Earnings from our Taiwan JV was partially offset by losses from the China JV. This resulted in net income attributable to Photronics Inc shareholders of $9.7 million, or $0.15 per diluted share. Cash generated by operations was quite strong at $48 million for the quarter. We also received $5 million in government incentives from China. We spent $17 million for CapEx in the quarter and paid $19 million in dividends to our Taiwan JV partner.

We also repurchased nearly one million shares of our common stock in the quarter for $11 million. For the fiscal year 2019, we repurchased 2.1 million shares for a total of $22 million. Since the inception of our share repurchase program in July 2018, we have spent $45 million to repurchase 4.7 million shares. The share repurchases, combined with the redemption of our convertible debt over the last few years, have reduced our reported diluted shares by 15% from the peak in 2015, creating additional value for our shareholders. CapEx for the full year 2019 was $177 million, slightly less than our estimate of $185 million. We expect that difference, together with the approximately $25 million deferral we mentioned during our third quarter conference call, to be spent in early 2020. For the fiscal year 2020, we expect total CapEx to be approximately $100 million, which includes the 2019 carryover.

Before I provide first-quarter guidance, I'll remind you that our visibility is always limited, as our backlog is typically only one to two weeks, and demand for some of our products is inherently uneven and difficult to predict. Additionally, the ASPs for high-end mask sets are high, and as this segment of the business grows, a relatively low number of high-end orders can have a significant impact on our quarterly revenue and earnings. Lastly, I'll caution that any development from the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China or from tensions between Korea and Japan could potentially have an adverse impact on our industry and therefore our results. Given those caveats, we expect first-quarter revenue to be in the range of $146 million-$154 million.

The first fiscal quarter is typically a seasonally slower quarter for Photronics, but we assume that our IC markets will be stable to improving, and the strength in mobile displays will continue to fuel the FPD business. We also anticipate increasing contribution from our new China facilities. Based on this revenue expectation and our current operating model, we estimate earnings for the first quarter to be in the range of $0.13-$0.18 per diluted share. At the beginning of 2019, we spoke of a cautious optimism as market conditions appeared challenging, and we needed to complete and equip our new China facilities, but we were encouraged by our financial strength and market position. At the end of the year and looking into 2020, we believe we have performed well and are in a great position. We are financially strong, and our market position is better than ever.

We are optimistic and look forward to even greater accomplishments next year. I will now turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Hi, good morning. It's Brian Chin on for Patrick. Thanks so much for taking our questions, and congratulations on the results. Maybe first question here, just Peter, maybe to go back and just clarify something in addition. So the $100 million CapEx for fiscal 2020, which includes the carryover, does that include that potential acceleration, Peter, you referenced in terms of the phase II capacity install on Hefei? And also, would that phase II effectively double your output from that facility? And from a timing standpoint, how quickly can you install and ramp that capacity?

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Okay. The approximate $100 million is a $33 million carryover. In addition to that, what we would describe as maintenance CapEx at our current run rate, that number is current run rate $625 million, 10% of $625 million is $62.5 million a dd $33, you get approximately $100. There is no CapEx for the next wave in Hefei in that number. The magnitude of the CapEx will dictate the amount of revenue uplift that we can achieve, right? We have not definitively made up our mind exactly how much to invest and when. Our global factory is sold out. We have no more capacity. We have returning business away from multiple customers. We're the market leader in AMOLED displays, so the demand there is tremendous. There's no doubt if we invest, we can fill the tools, I think, no doubt.

So we're talking to customers, we're talking to the local government, and we're trying to arrive at a business plan for the next wave that has the acceptable financial returns that we're looking for. That's not done yet. That's a work in progress. Hopefully, we'll have a lot more to say about that on the next call, but we're getting close. Timing of it is more difficult because the long pole in the tent typically can easily run now, anyways, anywhere from 15 months-18 months. So that's the only challenge we have is the speed at which our suppliers can respond. So everything else is lining up nicely.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Okay. Was that 15 months-18 months? Was that a lead time on the tool? Just to clarify.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Yep.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Okay. Got it. So even if you made the decision in the next quarter, it wouldn't be producing revenue within the fiscal 2020 horizon. It would be beyond that.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

No, not unless we can pull a miracle, right? But highly unlikely. Yep.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Oh, got it. Got it. And it's kind of related to that. The China startup cost, it looked like kind of a 200 basis point lesser headwind in the fiscal 4 Q. What are you sort of thinking in terms of fiscal 1 Q January? And yeah, I guess that'd be my next question.

John P. Jordan
EVP and CFO, Photronics

Hi, Brian. Good morning. It'll be less in first quarter. As we said, Hefei almost reached break-even in the fourth quarter, so we expect that to continue improving, and the effect from Xiamen will be less.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Yep.

John P. Jordan
EVP and CFO, Photronics

Go ahead, Peter.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

No, just to clarify that, as John said, Hefei is profitable. We expect it to make money in the quarter, and we expect that it will continue to make quarter every quarter. So we're through the knothole and out the other side, and quickly, as I said, right, sold out qualifications behind us, so Hefei's making money. Xiamen, on the other hand, we can accelerate qualifications. The market pool might help us, is helping us, I think, a little in that respect, but no revenue and lots of people and lots of plates create expense. But that expense, as we reach the second half of the current year and moving into next fiscal year, should rapidly turn to revenue and profit. So it's getting less.

It's getting less because of the profit we're generating in FPD, and we'll turn the corner late in the year, early next, when both FPD and IC are making money.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Okay. Maybe my last question, just to flesh things out a little bit here, but it sounds like what was more of a headwind now has shifted to a little bit of a tailwind in fiscal 4Q in terms of China and maybe China mainstream in particular in terms of on the IC side of the business. I'm kind of curious, can you sort of maybe calibrate sort of how your non-China high-end mainstream business is doing right now? That encompasses maybe the memory market as well, and also sort of how you sort of whether you think there's any sort of temporary unsustained business coming from China based on sort of, like you said, the maybe buffering that might be happening in the China market right now.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

No, I think you read my comments, Brian. We don't see the momentum in China diminishing. We don't see this as a temporary blip on the radar screen. There's been a strategic shift in the market that, in our view, is not moving in the opposite direction. China is, they have their foot flat on the floor, and the market's part of it, but also the government's behind it, and the government doesn't really have the same profitability requirements that a normal enterprise has. So China is moving to be self-sufficient. They see non-Chinese suppliers as strategic liabilities, and they ain't turning back. So this is not a temporary blip. It is a material change in how the business goes, not to diminish. As far as the rest of the business is concerned, this particular quarter, our memory business was up relative to the prior quarter.

It was down slightly prior to the quarter a year ago, given our customer base in memory, which is basically foundry DRAM and one very large non-volatile player who's not really sensitive to the industry downturn. Our memory business has gone along quite nicely through the last year, up, down a little, but not a material change either way. I do think that when we get somewhere around the middle of the calendar year and the overall memory market, if it improves as many people think, we should be in a position to build on our memory revenues, so the way we see the business, the guidance for the quarter is seasonal softness, and to the extent it's offset by growth in FPD, we get to the top of the range.

And by the way, if we get to the top of the range, FPD should be at or above its $200 million run rate that we projected so long ago. So that's kind of how the quarter sits. And we really can build on the IC revenue beyond what we have because the Asian network is sold out right now, and China has not yet been qualified, so we can't ship revenue. So there's no more IC revenue to come out of China. Now, if the non-China business, non-China Taiwanese business picks up in IC, we can raise our IC revenue bar. So whether the second half of the year is memory getting better or it's the Xiamen capacity ramping in, we see a nice revenue trajectory for our IC business in the second half.

Could be great or it could be good, but it's going to likely be one or the other.

Brian Chin
Director, Stifel Financial

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson. Your line is now open. Tom, if your line is muted, please unmute.

Hi, guys. Thank you. Can you hear me?

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Yep.

Yep. Oh, hey, yeah. This is Franklin for Tom. Thank you for letting us ask a few questions. You talked about IC coming back in China. Can you speak a little more to it in terms of what is driving the return on spending in, is it memory or logic? And maybe a little far-fetched, but perhaps who the main players behind it are?

Yeah. The demand in China really is both memory, logic, high-end mainstream. It's very broad-based. It's big customers like Huali or SMIC, and it's many other smaller customers with factories that are ramping and coming online. So yeah, it's really quite broad. I think, generally speaking, some real bright spots are the movement of the display driver business, the 28 nm. And you heard a lot about how strong the AMOLED market is, how vibrant the display business is. Well, there's a big shift underway right now at the 28 nm nodes to push the display driver business down there. 5G is an unbelievable, I think, driver in the China business right now, both in-country and then the movement of the China mobile products down their, what is it, Belt and Road Initiative. The China manufacturers are really following the money around the world as China expands its global footprint.

Automotive applications, real driver in our business, consumer products. It's really hard to point to any one specific market, but generally, IoT, mobile, 5G, and display all are hitting on eight cylinders in China right now and Taiwan, right? Korea is feeding into that too because it's the non-U.S. supply chain.

All right. Thank you for the color. And then as a follow-up to Brian's question on CapEx earlier, so when you remove the carryover from this year, you get roughly $70 million. Is this sort of the ballpark that you're thinking about moving forward as a maintenance level, or what are your thoughts on that?

Yeah. I think our view of maintenance CapEx is about 10% of revenue, right? So that for us is what we see as a good target going forward. Maybe a little more some years, maybe a little less, others. Because I'll just remind you, a leading-edge photolithography tool is $40 million, so you don't need to buy many of those to be at 10%.

Yeah. Okay. No, thank you for that. And then right now you have four customers with long-term agreements in China. How many of these customers do you have the capacity to serve over time?

Well, we're taking care of all of them. I think to quantify it, what we said was it represents about $300 million of business over a three-year period. So that's $100 million a year on average. Right now, that's between 15%- 20% of our revenue, which is on one hand a really nice solid baseload, but it's not something that overwhelms our global footprint on the other. And one of the reasons that Hefei is such a success story for us is we ramped it into an oversold manufacturing network. And we've been working to put our IC factory in Xiamen into the same scenario. You want to ramp into an oversold condition so that as the business comes or as the capability comes, you can sell it.

So we feel right now, you can say on one hand it's lucky, but on the other hand, right, the factory, we've been working on it for almost three years. We're in exactly the same spot in Xiamen that we were two quarters ago in Hefei. We can sell everything we can make.

Okay. Thank you. And then lastly, from us, thank you for the color regarding the headwinds in China. You said that the effect has been concentrated and relatively small. And could you sort of quantify what you're baking into your guidance for the first quarter?

No. The headwinds in China were in Q3. We mentioned that the business was impacted. What happened over the summer has some very prominent companies got put on restricted trade lists. There was disruption in the product development roadmaps, but generally, the Chinese electronics manufacturers came to the conclusion that by buying from Chinese companies or Taiwanese companies and perhaps if they have the Korean companies, they can build their products. They don't quite work as well as they thought they might, but they work well enough, and when they came to that realization, we saw a real acceleration in our Asian IC business, an acceleration that for me was really remarkable, so that happened in the fourth quarter, so Q3 was a slight headwind. Q4, it was a significant tailwind.

Regarding Q1, the whole world in the electronics business works on a product development cycle targeted at the Christmas holiday season. Some people don't celebrate it, but generally, there's a huge product cycle that goes on every year to have the shelves full for the holiday shopping season. So for our business, what that means is this quarter, which includes Christmas, is sort of a lull. So we work on a cadence where Q1 is typically the lowest, Q2 and Q3 are the highest, and Q4 typically slides down between Q1 and Q3. That's how our business works every year in a flat market. If there's industry upturn, it sits on top of that cadence. If there's a downturn, it sits on top of that cadence. So for us, Q1 is normally the seasonally slowest quarter.

And the guidance at the bottom of the range reflects that. That's what we look like in a flat market with seasonality put on top, 5% down. But what John said and what I reiterated is we could be flat, which is 5% up, depending on how strong the growth in FPD is in the quarter to offset the normal seasonality across the entirety of the business. So that's how the guidance comes about.

All right. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Peter Kirlin for closing remarks.

Peter Kirlin
CEO, Photronics

Thank you for joining us this morning. As we move into a new year, our business is performing, and we are well positioned to continue growing into 2020 and beyond. We are the leader in the merchant photomask industry with tremendous market position and leading technology. Our operations are aligned with several secular growth trends, such as the adoption of AMOLED for mobile displays, and we have a proven investment strategy that is driving profitable growth. Finally, before closing, I would like to take this opportunity to once again thank all our employees for their outstanding contributions throughout this year and to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday season.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

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