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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 9, 2020

Operator

Hello, welcome to the Plug Power's t hird quarter 2020 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Teal Hoyos. Teal, please begin.

Teal Hoyos
Director of Marketing Communications, Plug Power

Thank you. Welcome to the Plug Power 2020 third quarter earnings call. This call will include forward-looking statements. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on forward-looking statements because they involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors, including, but not limited to, risks and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A, Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31st, 2019, as well as other reports we file from time to time with the SEC.

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the day in which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug Power's CEO, Andy Marsh.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Thank you, Teal, and thank you for joining Plug Power's third quarter conference call. I'd just like to provide a few minutes overview. Please refer to our investor letter for a detailed description of the past quarter. First, I'd like to highlight our operational performance. Company achieved $126 million in gross billing. This represents 106% increase from the third quarter of 2019. Second, this quarter is really a strong validation of our business model in years to come. I think many of you know we're targeting 20% EBITDA in 2024. We achieved 19% EBITDA on an adjusted basis this past quarter, generating $21.2 million of adjusted EBITDA. The cost of warrants greatly increased this past quarter because of our increasing stock price, which can hide this significant achievement.

Third, just to highlight the acceleration of our business, in all of 2018, we shipped approximately 5,000 units versus the 4,000 GenDrive units delivered the past quarter. We also built 13 hydrogen fueling stations this quarter. Again, another record. This business is growing as expected, and we are moving into on-road vehicles and large-scale backup power systems. First, on on-road vehicles, we have deals with Linde, Doosan, and Lightning. We also have a fourth large OEM, which we are deploying vehicles for testing in Europe. Our approach to the on-road vehicle market is really straightforward. Partnerships or ventures with large OEMs, which may require some product modifications on our part for large-scale business, and standard products for integrators and low-volume applications.

Now, the reason we can do it is because the high density of our ProGen module, which is 30%- 45% higher power density than our competitors, making our products easier for customers to integrate into existing battery electric vehicles, very similar to our approach to electric forklift trucks. These same ProGen building blocks we've developed for on-road vehicles is leveraged into our large-scale backup power solution. We have closed deals for this product, and we'll be deploying units at the end of the second quarter of 2021. I've become increasingly more excited about this opportunity with both data center customers and now I'm finding logistic customers. The same restrictions limiting deployment of internal combustion engines in certain regions for vehicles, we are now also seeing similar regulations impacting the deployment of diesel generators for large-scale backup power systems.

Fuel cell and hydrogen, because of energy and gravimetric density, have the same advantages in the market as on-road vehicles versus batteries. Example that had been told from both a logistic customer and a data center customer that the regional restrictions are real. For example, California is informing customers that they must prepare to have 96 hours of backup power because of the instability of the electrical grid. By the way, they say, you can't use diesel gen sets. We believe that hydrogen fuel cells are really the only viable solution to meet this requirement. I think what's more important in my opinion, I think you're hearing end customers say the same.

I'd also like to highlight our progress in building five green hydrogen plants that will generate 100 tons of green hydrogen by 2024. We have announced partnerships with Apex and Brookfield to provide a source of green hydrogen through solar, wind, or hydropower. We're in the design phase for two of our new hydrogen plants and expect completion by the end of 2022. We are leveraging our expertise in operating and designing plants from our recent United acquisition and the ability to convert renewables into green hydrogen from our acquisition of Giner ELX. The demand for green hydrogen is closely tied to our present customers' sustainability goals.

Plug Power is projecting that by 2024, our own internal demand will approach 100 tons per day. With another note of interest to investors, our gigafactory is progressing, and with the election now over, we expect an announcement will be forthcoming for the location. The equipment to support the gigafactory is on order. We expect first production in late Q2 2021. Finally, I'd like to highlight that we will be increasing our gross billing target for this year from $310 million to $325 million-$330 million. The demand for our products will continue to grow. This will be another record quarter. Paul and I are now ready to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you like to be placed in the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Once again, that's star one to be placed in the question queue. If you're from a speakerphone, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing star one. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer. Your line is now live.

Colin Rusch
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Thanks so much, and guys, congrats on all the progress.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Hi, Colin.

Colin Rusch
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Andy, it's always good to hear your voice. As you're looking at these hydrogen plants, and I know you've done a lot of work on the financing side, can you just give us an update on where you're at, the number of partners you're thinking about working with on the finance side, and any sort of detail around deal structure that you guys might be looking at at this point?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Colin, I can tell you a little, and then I'm going to kind of punt on the remainder of your question, but just to kind of give some guidance. We do expect to break ground on two of these plants, one with Apex, one by Brookfield, by the end of the year. When we look at the finance side, I probably would be thinking about 30% of the financing being equity and 70% being debt. We are in discussions with not only potential financial backers, but also people who are more industrial-related. I would expect that more will be coming in the future.

Colin Rusch
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Okay, great. Thanks. Just shifting to the stationary power opportunity for you guys, having a product in the market is meaningful. Can you talk a little bit about the customer dynamics, how far through the testing process you are with any of those folks, how big that funnel is, and a little bit of detail around the fuel logistics for those gen sites?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Yeah. I think that we're really beginning to do the first deployments in the second quarter, Colin, and that we do have both customers in the data center space, as well as in the logistics space, which quite honestly the issues in California really accelerated some of that discussion. I think it's a business that you probably won't see meaningful revenue till 2022. From my perspective, the funnel continues to grow. You see activities not only, I've kind of mentioned the logistic operations with our present customers. You see activities with data center customers. You also see activities with people thinking about microgrids. It's a real interesting opportunity. You actually hit on a question I spend a lot of time thinking about, is that how one thinks about the hydrogen for these solutions and do they become almost depot points also to support other customers?

You could see hydrogen at a data center or logistics center being generated on-site, provide backup, but that also could be a point of distribution. We actually do a model like that for the Southern Company, which during this past hurricane, we've really demonstrated the success of. We have 500 small-scale backup power systems for the Southern Company, and we actually service them from one or two of our customers for distribution customers. That is actually one of the more interesting opportunities, and because we have uses for hydrogen in so many applications that it kind of really makes sense because we're system guys, and you have to always think about how systems all fit together. That's a real interesting question.

Colin Rusch
Analyst, Oppenheimer

Yeah, that's incredibly helpful, Andy. Thanks so much, and I'll pass it on here.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Craig Irwin from ROTH Capital Partners. Your line is now live.

Craig Irwin
Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Good morning, Craig.

Craig Irwin
Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Hey, Andy. Congrats on a really solid quarter here. I think it's nice to see Plug really showing that it can deliver. What I wanted to ask about is the EBITDA. This is a really impressive result. Can you maybe talk about what's going right for you on the earnings side? Where do we need to focus to see whether or not this kind of performance is sustainable over the next couple of quarters? I know your guidance is more conservative and you tend to give conservative guidance, can you talk us through some of the things you're learning that's allowing you to deliver really strong EBITDA on the bottom line?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

That's a good question, Craig. First, I think the easy part of that is delivering on this next fourth quarter for our increase in guidance. If I then take a step back, I think one of the critical items is the announcement of the next pedestal customer. Jose Crespo, our EVP of Sales, is actually working with four customers, two in Europe, two in North America, who could be that next pedestal customer. If I was monitoring Plug, that's an item I would monitor. I would be monitoring, are they making an announcement for large-scale backup power systems and on-road vehicles that could be meaningful to 2024 revenue? That would be another guidepost I would use. Then I would look at our success. Look, I'm saying we're breaking ground by the end of the year on two sites.

I would be looking for some meaningful announcements and more details about those two sites with hydrogen. That's kind of my PowerPoint for the next 90 days and 450 days, and they're the kind of things I'm looking for to make sure we're on track.

Craig Irwin
Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Thank you for that. Usually when Plug has such a strong quarter like this, the stock responds very favorably, very positively. The stock is maybe a little bit more tepid than many of us would have expected. It seems like your guidance, the raised gross bookings or gross billings guidance, implies $84 million-$89 million in the fourth quarter, and consensus is out there at $90 million. Can you maybe tell us if there was something pulled forward in the third quarter from the fourth quarter? Is there something seasonal where some of your pedestal customers can't take deliveries in the Thanksgiving-Christmas holiday period because it interrupts their sales? What's going on there with the sequential revenue progression, given that you've had such a strong quarter now and it doesn't read as strong? Is this just conservative?

Are you just giving us numbers that you're very confident you can make?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Craig, I've learned I've done this for 12 years. I've been less wrong recently than I've been in the past, so it's taught me to be conservative. That being said, I think you also make another really valid point. My major customers are in the logistics business associated with their big business season is the holiday season, and during the holiday seasons, they don't want to change everything. They've spent all year preparing and so I think you see the mix of customers in the fourth quarter different, and this happens every year. You see more activity in the auto space and manufacturing in the fourth quarter than we generally see earlier in the year and less in the logistics space.

I think, again, this next quarter is going to be incredibly stronger than the fourth quarter of 2019, and we see the first quarter of 2021 increasing dramatically from the first quarter of 2020. We're seeing the progress all along.

Craig Irwin
Analyst, ROTH Capital Partners

Thank you for that color. My next question is about UHG and the Tennessee plant. Can you just give us a little bit of color? I guess color is a good pun. Do you consider this a green, gray, blue hydrogen plant, given that you are using waste hydrogen off one of Olin chemicals plants? Can you maybe comment about the carbon intensity of that plant on a relative basis versus the other plants that produce hydrogen for transportation and fuel cells in North America?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure. One, what do I consider? I think it's fair to consider it a blue hydrogen plant. I think, Craig, you mentioned I'm conservative about definitions. I think a pure green hydrogen plant is one that is coming from hydropower, coming from wind, coming from solar. Look, the plant in Tennessee, that hydrogen would just be burned off in the air if we weren't using it. From a CI score, we're actually doing a deep dive at the moment, and our goal is a CI score for that plant that we get to about a 50 CI score at the pump. Our other goal is that, Craig, we're looking to ultimately deliver that hydrogen using green fuel cells and green hydrogen to bring it to the customer, so there's less of an impact from wells to wheels. Look forward to telling you more about that.

We're having a detailed study going on at the moment. Hello?

Operator

Thank you. Our next question-

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Jerry.

Operator

Is coming from Eric Stine from Craig-Hallum. Your line is now live.

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Hi, Andy.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Hi, Eric. How are you?

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

I'm doing fine. How are you?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Good.

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Good. I jumped on a little late. I apologize if I'm going to cover some things you already have. Curious, I know you've talked about four on-road programs. You're targeting mid-2021, where we could see some movement there and where it could start to contribute to revenues. I know you're also talking about a large OEM in Europe. Curious, is that one of those four? Is this a new customer or partner? Then, maybe what we can look for as part of that relationship.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure. It is one of the four, Eric, and before you joined the call, I mentioned we have deals going on with Linde, Doosan, and Lightning at the moment. We have the fourth OEM. When I think about this market, I think about how there's going to be two channels, mainly to market for us. One is partnerships or ventures with the large OEMs, and another one is leveraging our standard products to the integrators. Those four programs are ongoing, two in Europe, two in the U.S. Look forward to making more announcements as soon as possible, but these discussions always take slightly longer than I expect. I can tell you, I expected to announce a United deal in early March, and I announced it in early June or late June.

I've learned to be a little cautious, but meaningful discussions and plans are ongoing, and hope to be telling you about more about it soon.

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Got it. Okay, last one for me, just on pedestal customers. You've talked about that you hope to sign one by the end of 2020. Curious if that's still the outlook, I think you've said in the past that to get to your 2024 goals, that you'd target six to seven in total. Wondering if that's still the number as well.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Yeah, I think the number's six. Earlier in the call, Eric, I mentioned that Jose Crespo, our EVP of Sales, is working with two potential pedestal customers in the United States, two in Europe, and we still expect that we'll have one done by year-end.

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Okay, you said six is kind of the number you're targeting for 2024?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

That's correct.

Eric Stine
Analyst, Craig-Hallum

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Okay. Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Christopher Souther from B. Riley. Your line is now live.

Christopher Souther
Analyst, B. Riley

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. First, I wanted to see if you could walk through some of the warrant mechanics. As of the second quarter, about half of the Amazon warrants had vested and a smaller portion of the Walmart ones had. I thought these were typically more paid in installments as those tranches hit. Was this just a matter of very large orders during the quarter or exercise of some of those warrants? Could you kind of remind us how the math works on that?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure. I'm going to start off, and then I'm going to hand it off to Paul, Chris. The warrants actually get charged against each order. I know this may be hard for folks to understand, the higher warrant charges, which is a non-cash event, is actually a real positive. One of our pedestal customers in the third quarter actually exceeded the tranche where the warrant price gets reset. The warrant price is reset at a rate that's actually 10x higher in cost than the original warrants, which is a real good item, since those warrants strike price is over $13 versus the original strike price of $1.19. What it really says with these increased warrant charges is that you've seen increased purchases of our products.

I think from the last time, I would highlight the fact that the stock is doing so well and the fact that those strike price for the warrants is now 11x, 12x higher, it ultimately means less dilution for shareholders. Though it's somewhat hard to see maybe in GAAP financials all the time, this less dilution is really, really good and something we negotiated three years ago to protect shareholders, and it's really proven now. Paul, would you like to add to this from an accounting point of view?

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

Yeah, I think you covered it, Andy. It's really two factors in terms of the jump in the cost rate from a GAAP basis, which is increased purchases and them moving into the final tranche, which now the price has been set and because it's 10x, we use the Black-Scholes methodology, which is the proven accounting approach to use. The cost value is higher, so you just get a book effect, which, as Andy said, is non-cash. Those are the two drivers that drove that increase. That's why you see the delta change in the quarter.

Christopher Souther
Analyst, B. Riley

Got it. On the opportunity within backup power stations, you had targeted that as a portion of the $250 million by 2024. Maybe just from a high level, do you see this progressing similar to material handling, where it's several kind of key customers that are going to be doing kind of a lion's share? How many customers do you think you'd need to kind of hit those longer-term targets? Is it going to be kind of announcements like that that give visibility? I just wanted to get an idea of what the ramp and pipeline should look like there.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Chris, that's a good question, and I think there are some differences. One, I think you're absolutely right that the initial ramp of that business will be more associated with large customers or large owners of data centers. I think you know some of those names. I think that'll be the initial success. As well as maybe with some of our present logistic customers. I think, ultimately, large-scale diesel generators are going to have more and more, I'll say, policy pressure and customer pressures, and that I think that you'll see more and more enterprise opportunities. Take a hotel where you may have a large-scale diesel generator set today in a city that won't allow it anymore, and thinking through those models and how to go to market, probably is a post-2024 activity.

I do think it's really a large market opportunity which will first take off with big customers. It'll take off because of policy, both the customers' policies and government policies. It's a real interesting opportunity.

Christopher Souther
Analyst, B. Riley

That's helpful. Just last one, I wanted to see if you could walk us in the moving pieces on the fuel margins. Obviously, the sales are up, but the gross margins are down. I assume United Hydrogen is added in there. I was curious if there are any kind of one-time items or how we should think about kind of the ramp in margins over the next few quarters there as you start to make a dent with some of the integration of green hydrogen strategies.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Paul, do you want to talk about the margins? Because I think the margins probably are better on a non-GAAP basis.

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

Yeah. If you look on a non-GAAP basis, it was effectively break even for the quarter. I think what you're seeing is the benefit of the United Hydrogen starting to kick in. As we've talked publicly, we're actually investing to ramp additional capacity out of that existing facility. As that starts to kick in and we're able to utilize that, you'll see continued progression. I think as we move into next year, we're actually continuing to invest in increased efficiencies in the systems, making big strides.

I think directionally, you're going to continue to see great leverage in that product line as we start to l everage the existing facility we have, leverage the existing capacity we have, invest in efficiencies, and then as early 2023, when the new capacity comes online, there'll be again another big step function. We're pleased with the direction that we're making and the efforts, and I think you're going to continue to see that continue to play out.

Christopher Souther
Analyst, B. Riley

Understood. Thanks for the color there. I'll hop back into queue.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now live.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Hi, Jed.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Hi. Thanks. Hey, guys. Couple questions. I guess, Andy, first, if I just kind of read between the lines, you sound a lot more bullish and optimistic than I've heard in the past, so it could just be me misunderstanding, but around backup power. I guess I just wanted to unpack that a little bit, and I'm curious, is your optimism more market dynamics in terms of what you've seen unfold over the past 90 days or so? Has it had more to do with your two acquisitions? I would think that maybe United and Giner, is that what changed it, or have you always been this bullish and I just wasn't paying attention to that?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Jed, I think your read of me is correct. If you would've sat down with me 1.5 year ago, you would have never heard me be so positive about the backup power market. I think what primarily changed is that I'm hearing it from customers, people who would be users of these products. I'll give you an example. For National Hydrogen Day, which I'm sure everyone here celebrated, I was on a panel with Microsoft, and Microsoft explained why hydrogen was the right solution for data centers in the future. They're believing that it'd be cost competitive with internal combustion engines by 2024. I think those sort of bullish notions I also hear from our logistic customers.

Finally, I think you hit on another point, that our ability to provide a full system solution with electrolyzers as well as ability now to distribute hydrogen, which I think is going to be important for large scale backup power as all the combination of both of them have made me more bullish about this market.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Got it. I think one of the challenges for you and other companies in this space is changing the conversation. You had just mentioned in terms of compared to traditional internal combustible, it seems like the efficiency compare as well as even the negative externalities really isn't the competition. For example, in the battery backup, and this is why I ask the question, and in particular, your acquisition of United, the fact that when you look at the complexity of the grid and the fact that in California, utilities are actually shutting off solar in the middle of the day to keep from substations blowing up, that generation and those electrons could be used somewhere to gain some value versus just shuttering it.

That therefore your comparison is to, I would think, akin to driving through Trenton and looking at the flaring of refineries, that that energy is just going into the sky. In the same way, hydrogen seems like that's the lowest hanging fruit, so you don't get in this really physics-ending conversation comparing the storage to that of lithium ion or other storage solutions where hydrogen has a lower down conversion in the round trip of that energy.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Yeah. I think that's an interesting point, Jed, and when I think about it, so let's take it. I'm going to answer your question too. First, I think you hit on a very valuable point. Two other points. One, when one thinks about storage, there's been significant work done by people like Jack Brouwer at UC Irvine, by the DOE, that kind of shows that from a energy density point of view, from a cost point of view, that after about 11 hours, hydrogen is the best storage medium. In a place like California, you not only have to think about inter-day storage, but long-term seasonal storage.

I think the other point I would make is that when you think about short-term storage and you're creating it to hydrogen, for example, in California, the value of that hydrogen as a fuel, which is really needed, is actually more valuable than going back into the grid or being pumped in a natural gas line. I think when you think about fuel cells and hydrogen for long-term storage, hydrogen's really clear. For short-term storage, it actually may create more value using hydrogen as a fuel, vis-à-vis using hydrogen, just creating it back to electricity and putting it on the grid.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Got it. I guess where I'm going with all this is you think of the business and you think of you've provided targets in 2024 that was largely based on a model that was primarily that of fuel cells with a slight contribution in terms of hydrogen production. Are you rethinking that in the context of this increased optimism with respect to hydrogen production and backup, which seems to be skewed more heavily to that of the production, as you just mentioned, in terms of short-term and the value of that fuel that's being created? I do have two more follow-ups.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure. Jed, we think every day about how to accelerate the growth of the business. Having done this for a dozen years, we try to make sure we focus on putting numbers out there that we feel comfortable with, that we can hit, so that I don't have a bad earnings call. That being said, I think we're just beginning to touch on the value of hydrogen in the marketplace. When I think about it, it's almost like I think this is going to be a play in market where folks who, like wireless networks, who build out the hydrogen generation that's green will get it fastest, will get an unfair share of the market, and our goal is to get an unfair share of the market.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Got it. Two questions for Paul. Thank you, Andy, by the way.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Oh, you're welcome, Jed.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Paul, first question is just how to think of, you're beating on billings as well as increasing outlook on billings, but revenue's in line, and I'm just wondering, should we think about this quarter as indicative in terms of the ratio between revenue rec and billings, or was this an anomaly?

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

Well, gross billings for us is gross revenue. It's equivalent. It's just a term that we use. The only difference is the warrant charges in terms of how that's reflected in the financials. The gross billings reflect really the commercial revenues that I've recognized in the quarter. The traction that you're seeing is directly correlated to the activity underlying the business. I think from a modeling standpoint, I think we can talk about percentage of sales and stuff like we've done in the past, and how that might play out in the future, but from a underlying business perspective and just understanding the dynamics, think about that being a true reflection of the shipments and deliveries that we made in the quarter. As we progress, I think they'll continue to be correlated. I hope that's helpful, Jed.

Jed Dorsheimer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

It is. Got it. My mistake on that. Second question, and last one from me. Paul, you were quoted in terms of saying that I think in a publication, one of the most important things for Plug would be that of the ITC tax credits for vendor financing. With the administration change, which would seem to put into a scenario analysis of more favorable spin to your outlook, I'm just wondering if you could just expand upon that, because it seems like, for me, it was the first time that I had heard that from you guys. I'm just wondering if you could articulate, I'm assuming that that's for your customers financing the equipment, but I was wondering if you could just speak to that a little bit.

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

I think there's many factors in general. I think it's one as opposed to maybe the most important, but I would say the most efficient place to monetize the tax benefits and finance the projects is in the traditional bank market. It's where our customers often go to for those that use traditional models. A lot of customers lease their trailers and their forklifts and their other operation assets. Two, they often lease their fuel cell systems. Because it's eligible for the investment tax credit, they go to the traditional market, the traditional banks. What you've seen this year is, in the market in general, and this is true for solar and wind and others, is that a lot of the banks have had losses from COVID and other effects going on in the market.

Obviously, when you reduce your taxable income, you kind of impact the available investment tax capacity in the market. I think as we go forward, my discussion previously when the quotes, I think, were around ways that things could be beneficial. Obviously, if first and foremost economy picks up, the banks will have more income. Secondly, things like the 1603 grants, if they were to reinstate that's a big change in terms of benefits of being able to access the market and not dependent on having the taxable income to be able to take the credits. It's more about just making it easier to access the banks, and for not just for Plug, but for customers in general, and those things can be enablers.

Fortunately, we've got enough traction outside of that it's not the sole factor, I guess, the best way to think about it is just one of many dynamics. We've had many customers who sign on and don't take the tax credits and still yield tremendous benefits in the programs. As I said, it's just one of many dynamics that we think about in terms of opportunities.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, that's star one to be placed into question queue. Our next question today is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright. Your line is now live.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Hi, Amit. How are you?

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Morning, Andy. Thank you for taking my questions.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Congrats on the strong quarter, by the way. For the two plants, Andy, you are breaking ground on, could you give us a sense of the sort of the completion timeframe, and then how should we think about utilization levels ramping at these facilities?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Sure. Two plants, one which will be in the Northeast and one which will be in the Southwest, they'll come online in the second half of 2022, probably the fourth quarter of 2022. We would expect that those plants would be fully utilized, I would say, by early 2024.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Understood. Thank you for that. Do you have a sense of maybe sort of the margin impact from these plants getting to full utilization in the 2024 period?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

At full utilization, we expect these plants to be in line with a 30%-35% gross margin.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Wow. Thank you.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

You're welcome.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Just when we look at these warrants, previously, they've seemed to be a little bit of an overhang, but do you feel these are now sort of a little bit of an edge protecting or has protected the business from maybe competitors, et cetera, given that these large industrial customers were tied to just not really being able to go to anybody else but you guys?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

I think the key item is that we need to perform for our customers every day and focus on providing our customers value. Next to preparing for calls like this, Amit, I don't spend a lot of time thinking about the warrants. I think about how to keep on making sure that Plug Power is delivering value for our customers.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Understood. Just one last one. With respect to sort of your 2024, 2025 guidance, what's the contribution from Europe expected to be towards that guidance?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

If I look at next year, I think Europe contributes 10% of our revenue, and I would think by 2024, you can expect it to be in the 15%-20% range.

Amit Dayal
Analyst, H.C. Wainwright

Understood. That's all I have, Andy. Thank you so much.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

All right. Take it easy, Amit.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Moses Sutton from Barclays. Your line is now live.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Congrats on all the.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Moses?

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Investment and execution.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Yeah.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Hi. How's it going, Andy?

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Okay, Moses. You're last but not least, Moses.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Oh, thank you very much. Appreciate squeezing in at the end here. Apologies if I missed this before, did you provide 2021 adjusted EBITDA target, or just even if you could speak more generally, is the EBITDA margin going to be above 15%? Are we looking at $60 million, $70 million range off of the $450 million in billings? Any sort of directional view there would be quite helpful. Thanks.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Paul, are you there?

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

Yeah. I'm sorry. I wasn't sure if you wanted me to respond.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Yeah.

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

We haven't given that guidance, Moses. I guess at this point, what I can tell you is it will definitely be higher. We haven't really provided that. We've seen the pipeline, the sales are going to be higher, and we see continued progression and margin profiles for all our product lines. We're very confident that we'll continue to be accretive and go up. We haven't given a specific range yet.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Great.

Paul Middleton
CFO, Plug Power

We have a business plan scheduled for end of January, as we do every year. At that point, we might be in a better position to give you more specificity.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Looking forward to that. Maybe to, I guess, end the call here on this really out there question. Would you ever consider integrating some ownership of solar and wind assets? Truly controlling the full integration from electricity generation to hydrogen production and its use, maybe there could be some synergies there. These assets are easy to operate with third parties. Why not control the very full process ultimately one day? I know that's an out there question for you, Andy.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Well, Moses, I think we've bitten off enough with our plans at the moment. When you have such good partners like Apex and Brookfield, I don't see any need to get into their business. Our plan at the moment is to work with partners. I think, as you know, this activity is being driven by Sanjay Shrestha, and Sanjay has really been working with folks to make sure we have rates which allows us to generate competitive green hydrogen.

Moses Sutton
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Exciting stuff. Thanks again.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Okay. Thank you, Moses.

Operator

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question- and- answer session. I'll let you turn the floor back over to Andy for any further closing comments.

Andy Marsh
CEO, Plug Power

Well, thank you everyone. I really enjoyed our discussion today. We're really pleased with the quarter. It's going to be another great fourth quarter, and look forward to talking to many of you in the near future. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.