Greetings and welcome to the Plug January Business Update conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during this conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to our host, Teal Hoyos, Senior Director, Marketing Communications. Thank you. You may begin.
Thank you. Welcome to Plug's January Business Update conference call. This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements contain projections of future results of operations or of our financial position or other forward-looking information. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Act of 1934. We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on forward-looking statements, and such statements should not be read or understood as a guarantee of future performance or results.
Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those disclosed as a result of various factors, including but not limited to risks and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A, Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31st, 2021, as well as other reports we file from time to time with the SEC. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the day which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call or as a result of new information. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug's CEO, Andy Marsh.
Well, thank you, Teal, and thank you everyone for joining this call today. I'd like to start out for those who have not been on this call. Every January, for about the past decade at Plug, we've kind of provided a overview of what we expect the next year to be. This is not an earnings call. This is an outlook call for 2023. Like all these calls though, it's covered by the Safe Harbor statement, which Teal shows right here. Let's get on with the story. Every week I meet with our employees and talk through what are the key initiatives for the coming quarter, for the coming year, and these are our key initiatives for 2023. I stared at this today and thinking about how to present it. I almost would put this in three separate buckets.
There's a great deal of activity ongoing at Plug associated with hydrogen generation. Everything from building our own plants, to generating hydrogen using Plug electrolyzers for ourselves and for customers like New Fortress Energy, as well as how do you deliver that hydrogen and how do you take gaseous hydrogen and make it liquid? You'll hear me talk a little bit more about that, but so much of our business revolves around how to make hydrogen readily available, how to make hydrogen cost-effective, and how to make hydrogen lower and lower carbon intensity. That's who Plug Power is. I can tell you, one of the challenges in this industry for the decade and a half I've been involved in it has been those three elements of hydrogen, and Plug has been solving that problem.
I look at the whole application space, which is a driver for revenue for Plug, and we are an outstanding hardware company. Our newest stationary product, which I'll talk more and more about, is really 1.8 MW of power in a nice 40-ft container. It's more than that. Now, it's really a accumulation of 25 years experience. Everything we've learned, how to put 60,000 fuel cells out into the world, how to manufacture MEAs, how to make balance of plant, are all captured in this offering. I find this offering unique and this application, coupled with our material handling, coupled with our on-road vehicle activities with HYVIA, I believe is another key element of Plug's business and closely tied to everything we're doing to green hydrogen, 'cause these products make green hydrogen a continual annuity stream for Plug.
On top of that is our commitment to be a world-class manufacturer and to establish world-class relationships in our supply chain. If over the last two years, much of our discussions have been about JVs with people like Renault, people like SK. I think this year you're going to hear a lot more about partnerships with our supply chain so that we can deliver quality-strong products to our customer base. Look, we're bringing people and brought in folks to build world-class manufacturing operations for us. Not world-class just for the fuel cell and hydrogen business, but world-class for manufacturing in general. I think many of you saw our 155,000 sq ft g igafactory in Rochester, New York, just south of me here. We built a 400,000 sq f t manufacturing plant in under a year. Pretty astonishing.
I think many of you saw the grand opening, but there is a commitment to manufacturing, to supply chain, to construction, like our plants, which I believe is unique in the industry. Look, now I'm going to talk a little bit about the quarter. There isn't too much to share today 'cause Paul's still working on it. You know, I guess I would start out by saying, it was a tougher quarter than expected. Yes, you know, the company grew 45%-50% this year. We wanted to grow 80%. We didn't make that. We did grow in the fourth quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2021, 60%. Look, we ran into some hiccups.
I think that when you're introducing the whole suite of new products that Plug was introducing, which added, quite honestly, complexity to supply chain. We were, you know, pushing forward in December and, you know, in mid-December, late December, we still felt we had a chance. We didn't make it. We ran into items. We've overcome them at this time. It's really not supply chain issues. It really had to do with the fact that the new products came out a little slower than we hoped. Manufacturing had a few more issues than we hoped, you know, we feel that those issues have been overcome. If you really look at it, you know, two-thirds of our revenue miss for the year actually had to do with the new product ramp and its implications, quite honestly, to supply chain.
One-third actually had to do with our customer's construction. When I look at we have sites where the hydrogen infrastructure's already been built and ready to go, fuel cells ready to ship, the customer's construction, in many cases, did not get completed, that'll happen in the first quarter. I'd really like to reiterate, this is an important point, we didn't lose any backlog, we didn't lose any deal. The business keeps on growing. That's why, you know, we remain confident in our goals for 2023 of $1.4 billion in revenue with 10% gross margin.
I believe that the activities Plug's doing in green hydrogen, building out our electrolyzers, our partnerships, our continued investment in applications, will allow Plug to take a considerable share of this market, not only in 2023, but in 2026 and 2030. By 2030, we see this as a $20 billion enterprise with 22% OI. I wanna share with you, based on our present run rate, what a OI breakeven quarter. Notice I used the word OI. I didn't use the word EBITDA. I mean, Plug is now driving to achieving OI, operating income breakeven in the next 12 months. A quarter of $600 million, gross margin of 20% will allow Plug to be breakeven with our present run rate. Key to that is scaling our factories.
What's interesting is, you know, I usually would say key to that is driving sales. I'm not really worried about the sales. I'm worried about making sure we ramp our production, ramp our large scale stationary product, continue to improve the reliability, and build out our green hydrogen plants. That's how we achieve this journey. As time goes on, our breakeven revenue point for a quarter on an OI basis will migrate down from $600 million to the range of $350 million-$400 million. That's the roadmap. If you gotta look at hydrogen and the impact of hydrogen, and I take a step back and think about 2023. Plug is, you know, 2022. Plug is going to use 65 tons of hydrogen per day, liquid hydrogen, largest in the world.
As we source more and more of that with green hydrogen, some of this will be sourced this year in green hydrogen, the difference between 2022 and 2023, if it all was green, was a $100 million swing. That's why we're investing in green hydrogen, that continues to grow. One of the items, if you look at the next slide, we're really clear on how we're getting there. I think many of the analysts on the call today, they understand this roadmap. You gotta get land, you gotta get the PPA agreement, you gotta construct the plant, you gotta commission it, you gotta get the full production. I had the wonderful opportunity to be at our facility in Georgia on Monday and walk the plant. The plant is in commissioning. It still has some construction going on.
You walk that plant and you walk in and you see right there a power substation to support our needs. You see high voltage transformers feeding the rectifier systems, which are feeding electrolyzers, which are on site. Liquification, which includes large nitrogen compressors and helium compressors. You see the depots for moving and delivering hydrogen to our customers. You see the on-site storage. This site will start producing hydrogen at the end of March. You know, when I walked there and I walked through the team, not only did I see what we've accomplished to date, but I really saw the roadmap for New York, where a lot of work's been done already, for Texas, where work has been done already, for expansion with Tennessee and Louisiana work. When I look at it, we have the equation down. We know how to do it.
I think that this positions Plug uniquely in the marketplace. What's really interesting is how hydrogen equates to our stationary product. You know, stationary product. I don't know if folks remember what the Microsoft product looked like that we showed off in July and August. This is the product today on a 53 ft trailer. That's 1.75 MW of power. That product itself is going through final qualification that we will be shipping over 20 MW this year. A good deal of that is for green EV charging, where people cannot get the grid. It's also for some, you know, prime peak power applications, which is a huge market opportunity for Plug, as well as backup power, which we believe become peaker plants when we talk to some of our customers.
You know, we have strong orders for this product. The last bullet here is one that, when you think about the work we're doing with green hydrogen and you think about this continuous revenue stream and cash stream for Plug, this is using 1.4 tons per day of hydrogen. I think folks can do the math. That's a huge, huge revenue stream. When I look at this product, that's as important, if not more important, than the margin we'll make on the products. Our focus with this product is deploy as many as possible. As many as we deploy them, it's become such a huge long-term opportunity for Plug that pays over and over again every month. This product wouldn't have been possible with all the relationships that we've done throughout the years in the material handling business.
People like Walmart, Amazon, BMW, people like, I almost said Tesla, folks. Folks like Tesco. This product is really based, that stationary product, on the 60,000 fuel cells we've shipped in the field for material handling. It's based on the 200 fueling stations we've built. This year, with our pedestal customers, we'll do over 50 sites. In Europe, we'll do eight sites. We will, you know, we will be increasing our number of pedestal customers by four this year. We're continuing to drive down the cost, which will have benefits to all the applications Plug's involved with, everything from stationary products to on-road vehicles. This market will grow our business. If we move on to the next slide, Teal, you see our electrolyzer pipeline.
I'm going to tell our electrolyzer story a little bit different than folks may be thinking about it. You know, I actually see two separate markets here. We've developed and are beginning to ship a 5- MW self-contained electrolyzer. If you're a user of electrolyzer, if you want to take advantage of the IRA, you can buy a product that all you have to do is bring green electricity to and build a pad and have green hydrogen. That product is ideal for folks in concrete manufacturing, glass manufacturing. We already have orders for 34 to be delivered this year of this 5-MW platform. That 5-MW platform also, you know, if you look at it, half of those orders for that platform were received in the last 60 days. I think you're beginning to see some of the power of the IRA.
Our goal there is how to fabricate faster. The second big market opportunity, like what we're doing with NFE, New Fortress Energy, H2 Energy, is building large-scale plant. Who's better to help you build a 10 large-scale plant for electrolyzers than the company that's done it already? I can't wait. We actually had, I know Sanjay, one of the major oil companies at our plant in Georgia yesterday reviewing what we're doing. That plant not only becomes a demonstration of our electrolyzer technology, show people our trailers, show people ultimately our liquefiers. That's what those plants show. No one else in the world has the ability to take someone to a site and say, "You wanna see electrolyzer? Here you go, made by Plug. You wanna see our trailers and how to fill it?
This is how you do it." Not only is it an incredible opportunity for us to generate green hydrogen, it helps us scale this industry, make hydrogen ubiquitous, help us in our own applications. The plant's unique, and I know, Teal, we are planning in the second quarter to bring lots of analysts down there to show off this facility. This facility, if you move to the next slide, Teal, shows a great deal of our cryogenics capability. You know, hydrogen's tough. Hydrogen becomes a liquid at around 25 degrees Kelvin, almost absolute zero. That capability, though, is important to move and transport and store hydrogen. We look at our work and our liquefiers themselves, we believe, are the most efficient.
We look at them, and we believe they're incredibly cost-effective because we can use Plug scale building plants to help others. Our trailers, we're beginning to ship trailers at a faster and faster rate. Those trailer technology, we're also beginning to leverage for H2 mobile refuelers, as well as building our own on-site hydrogen tanks. Cryogenics is key not only for the next 15 years in this industry but for the next 50 years. Plug has this capability, which we've added to our portfolio in the last 12-13 months, which we believe separates us from the competition. I think the fact that we took orders for $150 million worth of liquefiers in the last 60 days of the quarter speaks volumes about what we're developing with this product line.
We also have joint ventures, and, you know, we're excited about our joint venture with HYVIA. I've driven the vehicle. Folks at, one of, if not the largest, last mile of vehicle delivery tells me they believe 35%-65% of last mile will be hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that look like our HYVIA. We'll ship 500 to 1,000 this year, targeting 100,000 by 2030. Our JV with ACCIONA, we will be deploying our first hydrogen plants with them in 2024. They've been incredibly aggressive finding sites for green hydrogen generation. We couldn't find a better partner for Southern Europe than ACCIONA. I think many of you know about our Olin relationship using their chlor-alkali stream.
This plant with Olin, which we have parts available, will be deployed by the third quarter. SK, you know, I was at the show with SK in Vegas over the first week in January at CES. I haven't been talking a lot about SK, but you walk in their booth and, you know, this was a tremendous booth. They spent probably $10 million on this booth. A good 25% of it was committed to hydrogen, and a lot of that their work with Plug. With SK, we're building hydrogen fueling stations in South Korea as we speak. With SK, we're gonna be doing over 1,000 buses over the next 18 months. With SK, by 2025, we'll have 400 MW of stationary products deployed.
With SK, we'll have a gigafactory in place. SK's become a wonderful partner. I think any of you who had the opportunity to go through that booth at CES got a sense of how close we are. Finally, I'd like to end by showing you know, I think this is a detail that many of you who are analysts were looking for throughout the year. This gives you a diagram of the mix of revenue between our different entities. When I take a look at this, what you see is that by the end of this year, the material handling business and electrolyzer business will be of equal size, and the hydrogen business of the pie will continue to grow. Now, to end this, I'd like to reiterate that, you know, we have the right plan for building out these green hydrogen plants.
I think we got there ahead of everyone else. We saw where the world was going, Sanjay and his team are in construction of plants that, five plants, including our plant in Antwerp, to allow us to be the leader, to be the first one to market with large-scale green hydrogen and 500 tons per day by the end of 2025. Our application knowledge and the breadth of products we're offering is unmatched. You know, When I look at the stationary product, I think many of you understand I'm an engineer. When I go talk, I am amazed by the improvement in technology from where we were in July to where we are today. To credit to the depth of engineering capability of Plug.
Probably more important to investors and analysts, when I talk to customers, they really want this product. Finally, we're developing and continue to invest in world-class manufacturing capability. Electrolyzer stacks, electrolyzer products can be easily built and shipped to customers in 16 weeks. Nobody can do that. That's who Plug is. You know, Plug created the first market for hydrogen fuel cells and now is creating the, you know, accelerating this market faster than anyone else. As my final note, as my folks in Georgia said, all the suppliers wanna be part of the Plug team because they see we're the ones moving this industry. On that note, I appreciate everyone's indulgence. I usually give you a quick one, two minute, but today I really wanna share with you, as I do every year in January, the grander vision for Plug.
On that note, I'd love to take Paul, Sanjay are here with me, and we'd love to take your questions.
Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star followed by two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from James West with Evercore ISI. Please state your question.
Hello, James.
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Hey, Andy, how you doing?
Okay.
As we think about, I guess a couple questions from me. One is on, with natural gas prices having come down and so input cost into the gray hydrogen that you still source coming down, when does that start to flow through, in your numbers? When do you get the benefit of that?
I'm gonna let Sanjay take that, James.
Yeah.
So, uh.
Yep, sure.
James, yeah, how are you? Fair question, right?
Thank you.
You will start to see the benefit of that as early as Q1 of this year, right?
Okay
The benefit of that meaningfully in 2023. Look, I think one of the things, James, when we talk about our full year of 2023 at that 10% gross margin target and $1.4 billion in revenue, the modeling that we did from a natural gas standpoint was that natural gas gets to about $4.50 by the end of the year. Obviously, you know, I have to tell you this, right. The prices are much lower than that. Just to give you one sense, every $1 change in the natural gas price from an MMBtu perspective ends up positively impacting hydrogen cost by about $1.35 per kg. Okay. If you think about that's the delta.
By the way, just, I just wanna remind everybody, there is a three-month lag before you see the full benefit as the price comes down and, you know, we end up actually getting repricing from some of our supplier, but that is the hopefully the tailwind that we'll get to enjoy here in 2023.
Right. Okay, got it. Perhaps on the supply chain, there were, I guess, some hiccups during the year and the fourth quarter. You talk about strengthening partnerships. What, you know, how should we envision that? What kind of form or shape will those partnerships take?
I think, James, there's a good chance soon you'll see us doing actually, having suppliers in our factory actually manufacturing products hand in hand with us so that we won't be, you know. Certainly the IRA has encouraged that. One of the big ingredients of the IRA is American manufacturing. Being one of the being the leader, you know, we've been, you know, over the last six months since the IRA got packaged, we've been talking, and I think you'll see sooner rather than later, us having some joint capabilities where we, with partners, have manufacturing on site jointly with us. Those partners we select to do that with will be folks who are not only good in manufacturing, but technology leaders themselves, which allow us jointly to do work together. I think I'm really excited about that, you know, that next step in the Plug journey.
We've become really good partnering on the sales side.
Now we're really working through how to partner on the supply chain side.
Okay. Good stuff. Thanks, guys.
Okay. Thanks, James.
Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer & Company. Please state your question.
Thanks so much, guys, for doing the call.
Hey. Hey, Colin.
How you doing, Andy?
Okay.
I know you guys are still in process of ramping two of these big hydrogen facilities, but can you talk a little bit about, you know, how yields are trending so far compared to expectations and, you know, how you see that playing out over the next two quarters?
Yeah, I'm gonna let Sanjay take it. You know, I think, why don't you take that one, Sanjay?
Yeah. Colin, I just wanna make sure. The question is on how are we ramping up all of our green hydrogen plants, right?
Yeah. No, I'm talking about the actual yield and performance of the equipment, right? As you go through the testing process and qualification and start turning things on, you know, how are things performing relative to expectations and how much, you know, problem-solving are you doing in real-time with the system?
Sure, sure. Got it. Again, I think Colin, one of the key things? When it comes to the liquefaction piece of the business, you know that we have an existing liquid plant in Tennessee, right? The person who actually has moved to run our plant in Georgia ran our plant in Tennessee, and he's one of the best plant operators we have right now. From a liquefaction ramping, tuning, doing the things, we feel pretty good about that. Again, I just wanna remind everybody, we strategically made a decision on, in fact, building a gas plant in Georgia first. Why did we do that?
That's so that we can actually do a lot of testing, a lot of learning, a lot of debugging, if you would, of our 5-MW electrolyzer, so that when we're commissioning and ramping up 40-MW electrolyzer as a part of the 15-ton plant, we've gone through that process. There's a lot of learning that we can leverage as we're doing that. Colin, when it relates to, like, you know, commissioning, you know, transformer already in place. We're actually commissioning the PDCs. We're starting to commission all the different compressors that Andy talked about, helium compressor, nitrogen compressors, right? We're doing the water flushing. Look, I mean, there's always things that can come up that you don't anticipate, but so far, as Andy said, things are going as planned. We feel pretty good about it, pretty good about it. Team's doing a great job.
We're very happy with how our EPC partner is working. Colin, one thing I wanna highlight here, which I think is probably a bigger and more important point, which I think Andy earlier touched on, what this does for us in Georgia is not just about how we're gonna be able to produce liquid in Georgia, how we're gonna be able to ramp this plant up. This really helps us industrialize as we now start to build our 45-ton plant in Texas, 75-ton plant in New York. We have almost a bit of a blueprint. We know how to use that. Like, for example, in Texas and New York, we're gonna do a turnkey EPC, right?
Where not only that this plant is gonna have Plug electrolyzer and liquefier, we're now in a position where we can go to some very large global EPC companies and say, "Submit the bid. We'll pick one out of the top players," and that's how we're gonna be able to get these plants built.
Perfect. That's super helpful, Sanjay. Then for Paul, you know, the 2023 guidance around OpEx spending shows a pretty sharp slowing of growth there. Can you talk a little bit about the staffing and how that OpEx spend is where it's being allocated? You know, is the growth coming primarily in R&D, or are you looking more around some of the overhead functions? Just so we have a proper sense of how to break that out.
Yeah. I think, a couple things. One, you know, we were pretty public last year about making investments in the business to support the growth on a CapEx and an OpEx standpoint. We feel like we've gotten a lot of that, you know, scale invested in platform. That, to that degree, it should slow. The other dynamic is if you look in the numbers last year, there's a lot of acquisition accounting. A lot of that doesn't necessarily repeat. As that abates, you know, it affords us to use those dollars in other ways. That helps kinda mitigate what you might see in some escalation.
That's I think the mix will probably be relatively consistent to what we did last year from an R&D and admin standpoint, but, you know, it's those two dynamics that I shared, that's why that it should, you know, be softer in terms of growth this year versus last year.
Great. Thanks so much, guys.
Thanks, Colin.
Our next question comes from Bill Peterson with JP Morgan. Please state your question.
Hi, Bill.
Hi. Hi, Andy and team. Thanks for doing this call. My first question is related to the visibility you have and I guess how we should think about the growth through the year. You know, the fourth quarter came in below expectations, and obviously probably like $100 million or so kind of below the expectation of the quarter. As we think about the year with $1.4 billion as your goal, I guess how much visibility do you have into that so far? How much is booked versus how much needs to be booked, and how should we think about the half-over-half dynamics?
I'll take portions of it and then I'll pull it off to Paul. It, it has to do with kind of the different businesses, and then I'll let Paul go into more. If you think about electrolyzers, we're sitting with electrolyzers pretty much at 80%-85% bill of what we need to meet the numbers. In the material handling market, it's about 70%, call it 75%. In the cryogenics area, you know, the trailers, I would probably put it in the 60% range, just because the trailers are much more, much faster. The, the liquefier itself, really, really clear visibility, probably close to 100% of what we're expecting. On hydrogen plants, obviously we can sell everything we can make with hydrogen at the moment.
That's kind of how I look at it. Paul, do you wanna talk from a more, higher level?
Well, I just would say a couple things. One, if you look at it on a whole, a large, you know, high-level basis, you're probably gonna see what I'm confident you'll see similar to what we've had in the past with the, you know, first half being kind of one-third of our sales and the second half being two-thirds of our sales. Part of that is the continued seasonality that we continue to experience with a business like material handling. Part of it is just some of the dynamics, you know, when we're turning on the green plants in the course of the year and we're continuing to scale up electrolyzers.
A lot of these large scale projects are really starting to take, you know, ramp up, they'll be in a greater capacity and spreading of scale in the second half. All of that combined is how you see it kind of driving out of that kind of one-third to two-third framework for the first half versus second half.
Yeah, appreciate that color. Maybe there's an earlier question about, you know, the benefits of lower nat gas prices, but you didn't really raise your margin, I guess, outlook for the year. I, and I believe back at, you know, when you did the symposium, nat gas prices were actually quite a bit higher, I believe. I guess with that in mind, can you walk through the puts and takes on how we should think about, you know, margins? Again, you didn't raise it, so what's, what are the challenges you have in terms of meeting the target and what are the, let's say, the tailwinds as you move through the year?
Yeah. I guess I wanna make sure it's clear, Bill, the numbers we showed today was for 2023 were exactly the same as the symposium.
That's right.
Yeah.
Nat gas prices are actually better than.
Yes, I understand.
when you had that symposium.
Yeah. Paul.
I'm gonna use my phrase I used at the symposium as which customers don't want me to ever talk about making money and, you know, vendors don't want, you know, you know, don't want us making money and, you know, investors want us making money. You know, it makes it hard to forecast. What I would say is, when you look at trends with the nat price being lower today than what we've just shared in terms of our, what Sanjay conveyed that's in our plan, that tells you that, you know, there's upside there, right? We feel, you know, pretty good both in terms of the volume upside, which as I sell more product holistically, you know, potentially could be it will help on the margin front.
There's also more upside on the cost down initiatives, which includes nat price and other initiatives that we got going on. I think it's something we're gonna continue to monitor. We have another call coming up first quarter. We'll be able to continue to give you guys more insight and updates as we move through the year. You know, coming off the quarter we just did and with some of those challenges, you know, I think it's a balanced approach right now to kind of keep those targets as we sit today.
Well understood. Thank you.
Thanks, Bill.
Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Please state your question.
Good afternoon, guys.
Manav.
Thank you, sir. A quick question here. First, we have seen a lot of positive news on the liquefier front, Nikola, TC Energy. I'm trying to understand how you look at this business. Can this business grow as the need for, you know, mobile hydrogen increases? One of your competitors has a 30% gross margin in this business. Is there any reason you can't hit that 30% gross margin as you expand in this business?
I'll let Sanjay take that one. Sanjay?
I think the answer to that is, maybe I'll just keep it brief and say yes, but let me elaborate. Great question. By the way, couple of points. You know, number one, we also benefit from supply chain quite a bit with our liquefier. One, we're using it for our own purposes and also selling it to the third party, right? That, and secondly, and I think Andy just touched on it during his prepared remark, we had one of the major oil company touring our plant. You can imagine that we are actually having discussions with folks like that as they are looking to get into this business, right? When you think about, kind of the 30%, you know, sort of we have one of the best energy efficiency from a pricing standpoint.
We believe we have the best pricing in the market. From a supply chain and a cost perspective, we can drive that cost down faster. To your point of why we should not have the kind of the margin you talked about, yes, you're right, we should. That's the right way to think about it. This is a business, right? As Andy said, it becomes quite chunky in terms of three liquefier being about a $150 million in revenue opportunity, and our funnel is substantially larger than that. Obviously, we're doing a lot of work with a lot of different parties and hopefully more to come.
Perfect. You know, the thing with sales cycles is we always want more.
I understand.
Now that you have given us this wonderful chart for 2023 sales mix. The obvious question is, can you help us understand a little bit better how that mix could be looking in 2026 or 2025 in terms of, you know, how much bigger could electrolyzers be by then, versus the material handling as we look 3 to 4 years out?
I think three to four years out, material handling is probably our fourth biggest business. I think what you'll see is our biggest. You know, and I'm gonna separate. I think our biggest margin business is probably hydrogen generation. I think our biggest revenue business is electrolyzers. I think that, you know, stationary products is probably number two, if not number one, depending upon, you know, certain, you know, how the SK ramp occurs. Number three, I would put hydrogen. Number four, material handling. Still important to us, but it was the baseline of everything we've learned. These other businesses are the opportunities and the chunks. You know, just to give you a feel, probably one of my 5-MW electrolyzer boxes generates more revenue than one distribution center.
Thank you, guys. Thank you for all the additional details.
Okay.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Alex Kania with Wolfe Research. Please state your question.
Hi, Alex.
Hi there. How are you?
Okay.
Good. Just maybe kind of a, sort of a follow-up question, I guess, on that is, you know, just thinking since the October meeting, I'm kind of wondering, you know, we've seen a couple of these chunky liquefier, you know, sales announcements. Obviously, some are a little bit further dated. Just how has that revenue mix, that you gave in the slides evolved, you know, over the last three or four months? I'm just... thinking about, you know.
Yeah.
Obviously going to this meeting and thinking about, you know, feeling good about $1.4 billion, but just I'm wondering kind of how the moving parts have moved. Maybe related to that, just thinking about some spillover from Q4 in terms of revenue and deliveries. You know, are there kind of offsets that we should think about, you know, relative to October?
Yeah. I'm gonna turn it over to Paul first, Alex. We purposely did not want to go over-aggressive on this call. You know, I would say that we're presently surprised by the growth of the liquefier business and the activity going on there. I think as we learn more and we have more customer engagement and close more deals, it may change. I'll let Paul answer the rest of it, but look, you know, I'm gonna add one item. Three years ago, people would say you're totally dependent upon Amazon and Walmart. That dynamic has changed significantly.
Both of them are critical customers to Plug, but the liquefier business, the electrolyzer business, the trailer business, all that has provided us a great deal of diversity, which actually makes the prediction, as especially as these new product launches now are becoming cleaner and cleaner, the prediction for the business becomes a bit easier this year. On that note, Paul, I'll let you kind of follow up.
I guess, you know, Andy said earlier, you know, the good news, really good news is when you look at, you know, 2022 and in particularly Q4, it wasn't that the volume and the sales and the opportunities weren't there and they didn't go anywhere. Obviously, all of that rolls into 2024. As we sit today, that gives us a lot, you know, just even higher confidence than we even in any year we've ever started, given what that rollover effect does. You know, that is a good, you know, and that really helps really gonna kick off the first half even stronger potentially than historically.
You know, as we sit today, we feel really good about the $1.4 billion. We got the pipeline and, you know, there's a lot of positive factors, including the diversity of mix, which gives us a lot of, you know, platforms to. And all of them have tremendous upsides on that. We feel really good about that and that rollover really helps, you know, helps increase our confidence level in terms of our outlook.
Great. Thanks. Just last question I have is just any sense that you're getting from, you know, Treasury in terms of finalizing rules around, you know, the PTC provisions or any other important ones within, you know, for you, making sure that, you know, all of those are. Kind of come out and hopefully similar to what your expectations are?
I would say this, Alex. I think, you know, Treasury, you know. Look, I don't. The number of comment letters, I forget the number of comment letters on the IRA. How much, Sanjay?
1,700.
1,700 comment letters probably is not helping them get through it.
Yesterday.
You know, we're looking at probably late second quarter before Treasury comes out with its announcement. I think, you look at a couple elements that make us feel comfortable. Look, we're American-made. For American, that's important to the rules and regulations, whatever happens. You know, you look at our plant in Texas, where the wind farm that'll support us is already there, which was built. You know, no doubt that's green energy. We're feeling. You know, look, not gonna say we're not going to be monitoring and talking to folks that make sure that our views of Plug and the industry are highlighted, but it'll take a while for the Treasury to get the regulations done. I guess I would add this.
You know, there always will be back and forth with Treasury even after the rules are written on interpretation. We've lived that in the material handling industry. I've lived that world here at Plug since 2008. There will always be some back and forth.
Great. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please state your question.
Hello, P.J.
Hey, Andy. Good afternoon, everyone.
Good afternoon.
How much of your green hydrogen in 2023, the 65 tons per day on average that you expect will go to your pedestal customers? I keep asking the same question to Sanjay. Is how would you price this hydrogen?
Yeah.
Your customers are large customers that have huge balance sheets, amazing market caps. Hydrogen will be a small cost for them, but it's a big deal for you. How would you really price this green hydrogen?
P.J., unfortunately, I'm gonna let Sanjay answer that question for you.
Thanks, Andy. P.J., I think we're gonna have to take you in some of these customer negotiations. Look, point very well taken, right? But again, I think, for as Andy mentioned, for 2023, you know, as a part of driving our margin expansion and obviously continue to drive the cost of hydrogen down, we are gonna be allocating, you know, meaningful amount of this near-term production to our various customers, right? The list is obviously larger. It's not just our two pedestal customer, as we talked about our demand being at least 65 tons per day for the full year of 2023. Now, from a pricing standpoint, P.J., it depends a bit, right? One of the things that we've always said is, what is Plug's mission?
We're trying to make green hydrogen economical, ubiquitous, and easy, right? With that in mind, we wanna make sure that we're getting the return on our plans. The return on this invested capital is attractive, but we're also not here to maximize what that price is gonna be for everybody. We're not trying to play this game. Look, we've suffered that. We don't want somebody else to suffer that as we have done for the last several years, given all the challenges and the dynamics we've seen in this hydrogen industry, right? Having said that, as Andy said, despite all this pricing dynamics with the production tax credit in place, I do believe that this is gonna be a business of probably a higher margin than some of our equipment business.
In light of that, I think, you know, that's the probably the best I can give you here in terms of how we're thinking about pricing as well as margin profile for our green hydrogen business. Just to add one last comment here, there are some customers, right, that are obviously paying pretty substantial price for this. I think on a case-by-case basis, there is a scenario where, you know, pricing could actually be meaningfully higher than what we're giving to our pedestal customers.
Okay. Then you didn't take down your, you know, 2023 target of 200 tons per day by end of the 2023.
Correct.
Does that confidence come from these EPC contracts that you'll be giving out, that you think they can execute and you can keep that target?
Yeah, P.J., that's a great question, right? I think when we're talking about now commissioning. By the way, one another thing we did highlight, right, from commissioning to full product production, it's anywhere between three to six months. What we have learned here in Georgia really allows us to sort of talk about why we can in fact get Texas done in the timeline we're talking about, 'cause we're kinda done it, right? It's not a, you know, in a PowerPoint kind of a presentation, "Hey, these are the things we need to do." We're actually doing it on the site, on the ground, so we know what are the challenges we face, we know how we've mitigated them. That gives us the blueprint to take that to a global EPC companies and ask them for a turnkey EPC contract. That's what's gonna happen in Texas.
That's what's gonna happen in New York. That's what's gonna happen in multiple other plants that we're gonna continue to build. Short answer to your question is learning what we've learned in Georgia is gonna actually be a huge value add, not to get Georgia up and running by the end of March here in the end of Q1 and early Q2, but really how we execute on many projects going forward.
Thank you.
Thanks, P.J.
Our next question comes from Jordan Levy with Truist Securities. Please state your question.
Hi, Jordan.
Afternoon, all. Thanks for taking my questions. As my first time on the call, appreciate the feed with all the details. I just wanted to hit quickly on the stationary business. You all, you know, you obviously talked to the work you did with Microsoft last year. Just curious how you're thinking about the other two avenues for that business being, EV charge and PrimePower, and how those develop or mature over the next year and then maybe over the next, you know, three to four years and how you see that playing out?
This year, EV charging will be the largest segment for us to sell to. What really is interesting is, you know, it's tied to customers committed to renewables. Like have no way to provide really the power to provide that renewable, low CI, you know, energy to their vehicles. Quite honestly, this is a ultimately will be a benefit to our HYVIA business. When you start thinking about bringing those transmission lines, you know, you know, maybe having to have 15 MW, 20 MW of power brought into the middle of a city, it's not easy. I think if you talk to bus companies, they're always commenting about that's their EV challenge. We see that market continuing to expand, when we talk to our last mile delivery folks as well as folks who are, you know.
One of the biggest opportunities that we have there, which will be this year, which will probably be the second largest, is folks using our products as peaker plants, and that, we actually have a significant deal which combines our electrolyzers, our stationary products, and using it at peaker plants with utilities. I think over the next two, three years, that's a large portion of our business. When you start thinking about, as hydrogen becomes more and more available, I think that, this stationary market, like what we're doing with SK, where you're talking hundreds of megawatts deployments, that hydrogen ultimately replaces natural gas generators as we drive down the cost of both green hydrogen as well as drive down the cost of the stationary products. I think that's the roadmap. I think this year.
I'll just add, you know, I talk about backup power, and I hope this answer is coherent, but even with the backup power products, we ultimately see customers looking to put more value. We know through our discussions with the largest data centers customers that they're looking to use these quiet fuel cell plants to be able to provide peak power when the grid is expensive, as well as an opportunity maybe for them to sell peak power back to the grid. You know, it is really part of holistically how the utility network will evolve over the next decade. Hope that helped.
Yeah, yeah, it definitely does. Really appreciate it. I'll leave it at that. Thanks so much.
You're welcome.
Our next question comes from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Please state your question.
Hi, Eric.
Hi, everyone. Hello, thanks for sneaking me in here at the end. maybe I'll just stick with materials handling. you mentioned the 50 new sites this year.
Yeah.
You know, just curious how that maybe breaks down between the, you know, your Walmart and Amazons and some of your new ones. Maybe just some clarity on the three new Pedestal accounts in North America. You know, I'm curious, you know, whether those are in part driven by or spurred a little bit by, you know, by some of the tax credits or, you know, whether that is on the ROI alone?
Yeah. Eric, with material handling, I think that you'll see probably of those 50 sites, probably, 40%-50% of them will be with, you know, our two largest customers, and maybe the mix will be a little bit different. You know, I think folks are, you know, familiar, you know, that Amazon's probably slowed down a bit but have not stopped on new builds. There are now, because it's slowed down, much like Walmart, you know, brownfields become more interesting since there's time to look at them. There's opportunities there. I think, I think the rest.
This is important, and this I think comes down to the diversity of our, as we diversify our customer base, probably more than half of our deployments this year, if not, 'cause there's more than just the Pedestal customers that we'll be deploying with, you know, probably 60%-65% are different customers than Amazon and Walmart. I see that as a real positive. I think the IRA does have an impact for helping to establish new Pedestal customers 'cause the, you know, the IRA's purpose is to continue to drive down, you know, the cost of these technologies by providing, you know, tax credits in the near term.
With our American manufacturing, I think there's an opportunity for the tax credits for these products to be beyond 30%, up to 50% based on American content and labor, which strengthens the value proposition and certainly helps with the three new Pedestal customers.
Okay, I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Thanks, Eric.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo. Please state your question.
Hi.
Hello, Praneeth.
Good afternoon. Hi.
Hello, Praneeth. How are you?
Good. I just wanted to ask, you know, what you're seeing in terms of pricing for your electrolyzer since the IRA was announced. There's clearly a lot of demand that's being fueled by the IRA, so I'm wondering if you're in a position to raise pricing on electrolyzers and capture more of this demand.
I would say this, Praneeth, we have, you know, as we've, you know, been in this market and learned where price points are, we have found opportunities to manage the pricing of our products, to be able to capture higher gross margins. Now, I think the product it will be unique in the fact that it's coming out with, you know, positive gross margins and the level of material handling almost out of the gate.
Got it. Then the second question here, just wondering if you could provide an update on your CapEx spending plans for 2023, and then maybe how you see CapEx costs trending for your green hydrogen build-out on a per ton basis? Thanks.
Why don't you go per ton, Sanjay, and Paul, maybe you talk about your capital plan.
We really there's no change in terms of how we're looking at that on a per ton basis since what we talked about during our symposium back in October, right? If anything, all the learnings in Georgia, and as I just touched on, sort of doing the turnkey EPC, you know, we do see a lot of optimization opportunity continuing to drive the CapEx down, right? Our lead plans are gonna be obviously in that $8 million-$9 million a ton range. That's an integrated green hydrogen plant. If you're talking about a byproduct hydrogen plant, those numbers will be, again, lower than that in a meaningful manner. Again, I think, you know, no real change, you know, versus what we've shared with you during our symposium.
Paul.
I think, you know, as with last year, the bulk of our CapEx is on green hydrogen. You know, we do have a couple key manufacturing facilities that we're investing in. You know, cumulatively, that'll be 5%, 6%, 7% of our sales, but in terms of the CapEx rate. The, you know, holistically, we think it'll be in the $1 billion range again this year in terms of the total dollars we're spending, you know, on that proposition. We think that we can't go fast enough given those opportunities and the economics around it.
Where do you think the balance sheet will end up, Paul?
We're gonna end up, we'll close 2022 with over, you know, around $3 billion in cash. We announced, I think it's publicly announced, that we've paid off Generate I really don't have any debt. I'm well positioned. We could, depending on where we land on, you know, as we've talked publicly, we're looking at circulating that capital on the profiles. As we turn these plants on this year, that's a great platform to do that. We could end up the year in that $3 billion range as well as we circulate that capital.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Praneeth .
Our next question comes from Sam Burwell with Jefferies. Please state your question.
Hi, Sam.
Hi, Andy.
How are you?
Doing well.
That's good.
I guess most of it's been asked already, and I think you might have actually hit on it in your just that last question, Paul. Wanted to confirm, how soon can you begin drawing on the DOE project financing facilities, and how quickly could you claim any money for any grant money for hydrogen hubs? I mean, do you still expect to be able to draw $1 billion from the DOE?
From a circulating capital standpoint on the facilities, yes, that's still the program we're targeting. You know, we're gonna.
Do you want me to touch on the hubs?
Yeah. I think that's still the plan. We'll actually close, you know. Look, to we're working, we're knee-deep in collaborating with them now with industrial due diligence, financial due diligence, and I think it'll be mid-year to third quarter before something like that potentially closes. Andy, you wanna talk about the hubs?
Yeah. Sam, I think people have to recognize the hubs are a much longer-term play. you know, there were how many, Jer, that they said to us at hubs that they are told folks to go ahead on? There were about 34 out of 75, I think. Yeah. There are 34 hubs which we're encouraged to submit, Plug was involved and engaged in all 34 that were encouraged to move ahead. I think that what you'll see is a little money come out maybe late this year, early next year. In Plug's view, probably the hubs are more of a 2026-2028 timeframe where the real money gets deployed.
If you name a hub, Plug's there and Plug's working with people, be it West Virginia, be it New York, be it Houston, be it California, Plug is engaged. You know, the hubs are important. We're building out this economy. Plug's building it out now, and we're looking forward to the hubs catching up.
Okay, great. and then o ne last one on the JV activity for 2023. Is there any way you could quantify, like, the contribution in terms of equity income we could expect? Then one name I haven't seen in a while is Fortescue. Any update on the status of that partnership or the electrolyzer associated with it?
Good. On Fortescue, I guess I'd like to make two points. One, we decided that we didn't want to build a factory with them because we saw the economics we could do better. We really didn't think that was worthwhile to move ahead, that we're still working with them on electrolyzers. Look, there's no better green hydrogen plant folks than us in the US. We really don't need a lot of help here in the States.
Thank you.
You're welcome.
Our next question comes from Sherif Elmaghrabi with BTIG. Please state your question.
Hi, Sherif.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Around electrolyzer manufacturing, Andy, you said the goal is to fabricate faster. I'm wondering, what are some of the bottlenecks you're running into? Now that you have a line of cryo equipment, are you seeing a larger share of orders, pair electrolyzers than cryo?
Not yet on the second one, certainly, I'm gonna separate that question out. You asked the question, orders. The answer, I don't have orders next that link them yet, but there are orders that there is a lot of sales activity, and we've really focused the sales force how to sell this complete turnkey solution. I would expect you'll hear more about that. When I think about the electrolyzers, you know, I would just say that, what really has been the issue is really having designs that you've made over and over again a few times. You know, having been involved, for 40 years in new product introduction, you hit roadblocks along the way.
I would not say those roadblocks or, you know, anything that I sat there and said, "Oh my god, we're not gonna get through it." You, you just find things that come up when you move from design into manufacturing, and we really feel we're past them. I know we had some issues with our electrolyzer stacks with, you know, certain tolerances of materials we had to work at the end of the quarter, which quite honestly impacted our revenue for the year. You know, I'm not sitting there saying, we don't have a solution. It's just, you know, we feel that by March we're at that 100 megawatt rate per month for stacks and feeling pretty good about that.
Okay. That's very helpful for how to think about it. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Curran with Seaport. Please state your question.
Hi.
Hi, guys.
Hi, Tom. How are you today?
Thanks for hanging in there.
Good.
Good. I thought I'd stick around to see if.
I agree, Tom. I, you know, it's like, you know, thank God I didn't have to take a shot for every question.
Right. I don't think I'd be able to speak at this point, but.
What's. Sorry, Tom.
Yeah. Since I did end up getting some airtime, I've only got really two left on my list. The first is, returning to CapEx for 2024, would you share just a preliminary range and provide some estimate of just how much of a swing factor back leveraging could prove to be? You know, you've already touched on the impact of the circulating capital should have as it kicks in. You know, my understanding is that starting with green hydrogen plant 4 and on, you really plan to start to introduce the project finance and that, you know, you're already fielding inbound from infrastructure funds, the phone's ringing. Just within that range for 2024 CapEx, how much could the project finance you might put in place swing it?
Yeah. I think the one thing I would. The answer is, for 2024, you know, as we sit today, you know, I would expect it to be another $1 billion. I mean, again, we think that there's plenty of opportunities when you think about scaling this up, you know, that we need to go faster. On terms of capital, back leveraging, you know, the one important thing to keep in mind, I have a north of a $5 billion-$6 billion balance sheet now with no debt, right? And I'm, you know, time is on my side as I move.
I talked earlier, I think we've talked publicly last symposium, and I'll reiterate today, we're 12-15 months out from hitting numbers that Andy showed as pro forma here, to break even to positive. That translates to positive operating cash flows. With that profile coupled with that balance sheet, coupled with an unlevered portfolio program, I have tremendous leverage scale opportunities. I think we're quite well-positioned if we choose to fund that whole pipeline with project debt, if that's what we wanna do. I come into it with an incredibly substantial platform that I can use to back lever what I have already, in addition to back those future programs.
That's my intention and expectation and, you know, that's how I see it playing.
Got it. Thanks for that, Paul. Then Andy, where are you at in exploring options for your midstream strategy? You know, you had Williams prominently participate in the 2021 symposium. Kinder Morgan just said, you know, they expect the IRA to accelerate clean energy growth opportunities, and it seems as if the European players, such as Snam, might be even farther along. So just maybe an update on the likely timing and nature of that first, you know, midstream JV or alliance announcement we should expect.
Yeah, I would call it an alliance, but I'll let Sanjay take it.
We have multiple discussions going on, as you can imagine, right? One of the key things we've been trying to do is a little bit more than just a potential partner or the announcement, if you would, right? The area where we're spending a lot of time on is really thinking about what is that economic model, how long the pipeline has to be, which plant and which location that we're building our hydrogen plant, it makes sense at, right? Where do you actually end up getting the benefit from the distribution cost perspective versus liquefaction. Look, I mean, some of the names you've mentioned here are folks obviously we know very well as well.
From a timing standpoint, I hate to really put a timeline in play here, but we've got not just pipeline, we've got a lot of activity going on, even from a long-duration storage perspective, activity in salt cavern, right? There's a team that's just focused on activities like that. Sometime during 2023, we certainly expect that there'll be more that we'll be able to talk to you all about.
Got it. Thanks again for taking my questions, guys.
Thanks, Tom.
Thank you. Thanks, Tom.
Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. Please state your question.
Hi, Craig.
Hi. good afternoon, and thanks for hanging with me.
Okay.
Really appreciate the color about the potential margin upside on the lower gas prices. Wonder if you can opine, you know, as we look in the mid-decade, obviously there's no change in guidance from the symposium, but how much opportunity set still is outstanding to be clarified with the IRA? Maybe you could specifically discuss anything you're hearing or seeing around getting maximum PTC off brine electrolysis with your Olin relationship.
I'm gonna let Sanjay take the Olin and, you know, I'll probably opine about, you know, the future, beyond that. Sanjay.
On the Olin front, right? I mean, We are obviously doing a lot of work with them in terms of thinking through what is the best way to optimize the production tax credit working together. Today, as you really think about the chlor-alkali plant and the first piece of the puzzle, you gotta think about it, what is the existing CI score, right? There is that metrics you gotta go through. Second piece you need to think about is how do we buy, you know, renewable electricity that actually flows through that, you know, brine electrolysis process as well. Another piece is new capital investment, which obviously is the part of the liquefaction that we're building with them here in this 15-ton plant as well.
You got the labor piece, you got the apprenticeship piece. Right now, I think it would be premature to share with you all what that PTC could look like in terms of this, you know, chlor-alkali feed gas plant. Look, we're very aligned on that between both parties. We both know why it's important, how we wanna think about it, we're collaborating. You know, obviously buying the renewable electricity to flow through that electrolysis will be a part of the Olin side. All the other work from liquefaction, thinking about new capital investment, thinking about labor apprenticeship program is really the piece that, you know, we at Plug are certainly quite involved in. Give us some time, and certainly we'll be able to tell you a lot more about it.
Craig, you know, in the long term, I really think about ourselves as, you know, how much energy, how much hydrogen we'll be able to deliver to our applications. That application space, you know, is a space that we'll continue to dream. You know, there are going to be I mean, I was going through DRI for green steel and thinking through with our folks in Europe about how we could support that activity. That space, you know, we're not committed to do every application ourselves. We are committed to sell green hydrogen to every application. You know, I'm hoping Plug has the greatest app store in the world, and the greatest relationships with everyone who wants to use green hydrogen.
You know, I know where we're working, you know, you just think about a future data center. You know, I come from a world where there's lots of copper, boy, moving hydrogen without copper would be really interesting. You know, we have technology on the board where one could think about distributive fuel cells, almost like little mini power supplies spread throughout a vehicle, spread on the wheels, which could drive vehicles. I think the application space will continue to expand and grow as more and more creative people have come into the world, into this industry, and we're gonna be the company selling them green hydrogen for certain and doing a lot of those devices ourselves.
Just a final follow-up. As far as getting all the IRA benefits and your ability to upscale the applications you focus on over time, is it fair to say that there is upside to these 30% margins?
I would say to you, I think we show for 2030, it's 35%. One of our goals is always to increase those margins and move that timeline in. I think the IRA and the PTC both provide us an opportunity to think through that.
Thank you.
You're welcome. Thanks, Craig.
Thank you. Our final question comes from Greg Wasikowski with Webber Research. Please state your question.
Thank you for holding staying on the line, Greg. Appreciate it.
Thank you, guys. It's, it's nice that I'm the last. I was gonna say we gotta start building in a bathroom break to some of these calls. No, thanks for holding on. I appreciate it. I'll try to make it quick. First one is on the electrolyzer backlog moving from 1.5 GW to 2 GW. Just wondering if you could comment on that being from new orders and conversion of backlog or if it's an exercise of some of the options in some of your existing agreements.
You know, I guess when I look at it at the moment, you know, 2 GW represents where we stand today. The majority of that has to do with our present arrangements for building large scale plants. Most of the shipments this year will be these 5- MW containers. That'll, that'll drive a good deal of the business in the near term from a revenue point of view, the large scale plants. As Sanjay mentioned, you know, coupling that with liquefier sales, and trailers, which I think we've already done with trailers, is, you know, these sales become, you know, multiple sales opportunities, you know, where deals in theirselves are almost, you know, these huge $500 million-$1 billion chunks. That's really how we think about it.
This year, a lot of it is, kind of starting, you know, almost, you know, Look at Georgia, there's no plant in the world like Georgia. I call that a starter hydrogen generation plant for us. In many ways, the 5 megawatt offering is a starter offering for us. Also, a starting offering and a very interesting product for our customers. Hope that helped, Greg.
Yeah. Yeah, it does. Thank you. One more because why not? We've come this far. On the Nikola deal, correct me if I'm wrong, I think it's your first take or pay supply contract. First off, is that right? Secondly, given that you're getting closer and closer to your kinda targeted contracted capacity on the hydrogen supply, should we expect that the rest of the contracts from here on out to be take or pay, or are we still kinda on a case-by-case basis?
First off, Greg, that's not the only take or pay contract we have, right? We have other take or pay contracts as well, number one. Number two, you know, again, I think, you know, like you should expect that there is more negotiations going on, more take or pay contracts. There is, you know, from a variety of different industry, including even some of our existing large customers as well. We're looking at national deals. Look, at some point, you know, we're thinking about it, as Paul touched on it, right? Take or pay, you know, Inflation Reduction Act, PTC. It's all about how do you recycle the capital, how do you improve the payback of these plans.
The short answer to your question is, look, we're very happy with that, meaningful take or pay with Nikola, but that's not the only one that we have. There is more to come.
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Sanjay. Thanks, everyone. We did it.
Thanks. Thanks, guys. Thank you for staying on. You know, I just kinda like to reiterate, you know, the message from the beginning. You know, this business, you know, it's hydrogen generation, be it our own or be it helping our customers. It's pushing more and more applications into the field, like our stationary products, which become a recurring revenue stream for Plug Power and cash stream. Finally, and we didn't touch on it much during this call, our commitment to be not only the best manufacturer when it comes to the fuel cell and hydrogen industry, but it's also becoming world-class in manufacturing across the board. We look forward to talking to you at the first quarter, at fourth quarter earnings call, and I wanna appreciate everyone who stayed on the call today. Thank you.
Thank you. That concludes today's conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a great day.