Good morning. Welcome to the PPL Corporation Investor Update conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andy Ludwig, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, welcome to the PPL Corporation conference call. We have provided slides for this presentation on the investor section of our website. We'll begin today's call with updates from Vince Sorgi, PPL President and CEO, Joe Bergstein, Chief Financial Officer, we'll conclude with a Q&A session following our prepared remarks. Before we get started, I'll draw your attention to slide two and a brief cautionary statement. Our presentation today contains forward-looking statements about future operating results or other future events. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the appendix of this presentation and PPL's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements. We'll also refer to Non-GAAP measures on this call. For reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measure, please refer to the appendix.
I'll now turn the call over to Vince.
Thank you, Andy. Good morning, everyone. I'm thrilled to be sharing our progress with you today as we continue to execute on our vision for the new PPL. We recognize that this update is a bit off cycle from our usual cadence. While none of these updates should be a surprise to the market, given the significance of them, we wanted to show our progress now instead of waiting for the year-end call. Turning to slide four. There are several key updates that we want you to take away from today's call. Updates that further enhance PPL's premium investment proposition. First and foremost, we are increasingly confident in our long-term plan to deliver 6%-8% earnings and dividend growth per year as we laid out for you in June of last year.
Illustrating this, we are extending our 6%-8% projected growth rate another year through 2026 based off the $1.58 per share midpoint of our 2023 earnings forecast range, which we announced this morning. This $1.58 per share also represents a 7% increase from our 2022 pro forma forecast of a $1.48 per share, which reflects a full year of Rhode Island Energy. We are also expecting to increase our next quarterly dividend to $0.24 per share, subject to board approval. This also represents a 7% increase, which is consistent with our targeted dividend growth rate. The second key takeaway is that we've made exceptional progress on our capital plan and have added about $2.5 billion to the plan through 2026.
This includes the proposal that we filed with the Kentucky Commission last month for replacement generation in Kentucky as we retire 1,500 MW of coal generation that is reaching end of life. We've also added nearly $1 billion of FERC transmission investments at our Pennsylvania and Rhode Island utilities. These key investments result in a substantial increase to our rate base growth, which we now project to average 5.6% annually through 2026. The third takeaway is that we continue to identify additional opportunities for operating efficiencies in support of customer affordability. We've identified an incremental $25 million of O&M savings in 2026. This brings our total annual O&M savings to about $175 million compared to our 2021 actuals. The fourth takeaway is that our updated plan maintains one of the strongest balance sheets in our sector.
We continue to project FFO to debt metrics in the 16%-18% range through at least 2026 without the need for equity issuances over this period. The fifth key takeaway is that our plan advances our clean energy transition strategy. This plan delivers significant carbon emission reductions that are projected to be 67% lower than our 2010 baseline. This fully aligns with our net zero by 2050 commitment. These carbon reductions also support our interim targets of 70% by 2035 and 80% by 2040. Finally, we are building on our best-in-class governance structure and are pleased to announce the addition of another excellent utility veteran to our board of directors in Linda Sullivan. Linda is a collaborative leader with deep utility and financial expertise.
She spent nearly three decades in the utility industry, including five years as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of American Water Works, where she helped to deliver total shareholder return of over 150% during her tenure. Linda also spent more than 20 years in a variety of leadership roles at Edison International. In addition, Linda has experience serving on utility industry boards, including both NorthWestern Energy and AltaGas. We are delighted to have Linda join our board and look forward to her keen insights as we deliver our plan as a premier U.S. utility company. Turning to slide five. We are extending our annual 6%-8% earnings and dividend growth targets by an additional year through 2026.
Our projected earnings growth is based off the midpoint of our newly established 2023 forecast range, or $1.58 per share, which is a 7% improvement over our 2022 pro forma forecast of $1.48 per share. We extended our growth projection based on our confidence in several upside opportunities we previously discussed, including incremental CapEx, additional cost efficiencies and load growth. Each of those items are showing value in our updated plan while providing offsets to the macroeconomic headwinds of higher inflation and higher interest rates. As we continue to execute our plans and deploy our strategic vision, we are more confident than ever in our ability to deliver predictable, linear and competitive annual EPS and dividend growth of 6%-8% through at least 2026. Turning to slide six.
One of the most important underlying factors of this plan update is the substantial capital investment opportunities at our utility. We plan to replace an aging generation fleet in Kentucky and further upgrade our transmission assets in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The additional $2.5 billion of planned capital investments increases our total CapEx to more than $14 billion over this five-year period. As you can see in the chart, most of these incremental investments are planned for the back half of our plan, given the timing of the generation retirements and needed investments for replacement generation. Importantly, the timing of these investments enables us to continue to stay out of rate cases in Pennsylvania and Kentucky through at least 2026, which will help reduce near term rate pressure for our customers.
This timing also supports longer term growth as we move through the rest of the decade. Turning to slide seven. These additional capital investments will lead to projected rate base growth of over 5.5% from 2022 to 2026. We now project rate base to top $30 billion by the end of 2026. We project about a 4% average annual rate base CAGR in the front half of the plan, increasing to more than 7% in 2025 and 2026. This trajectory aligns with our rate case strategy that we believe maximizes value for both customers and share owners. Our earnings growth continues to be driven by the combination of rate base growth and operating efficiencies while we stay out of rate cases in Kentucky and Pennsylvania.
The only base rate case we are assuming in the plan is in Rhode Island to be effective in mid-2026. To be clear, our earnings growth is not dependent on base rate cases. This significantly de-risks our plan over the next few years while continuing to support affordability for our customers. Turning to slide eight. We've summarized our Kentucky CPCN filing, which supports an economic plan to replace a significant portion of the coal fleet in Kentucky, which is approaching end of life. In total, we expect to retire about 1,500 MW of our coal generation by 2028, reflected by the gray bars in the chart. Included in the 1,500 MW is the 485 MW Ghent Unit Two, which is the primary plant that would be impacted by the EPA's proposed Good Neighbor Plan.
Focusing on the replacement generation, we've developed a comprehensive plan that will deliver a balanced portfolio that keeps reliability and affordability for our customers front and center, and aligns with our clean energy goals. Our proposal includes adding two new combined cycle natural gas plants, which would come online in mid 2027 and mid 2028. Each combined cycle plant would be built at one of our existing sites. This provides for a just transition of our coal fleet and supports our current and future workforce, as well as tax revenues and economic activity for our local communities. We also proposed adding nearly 1,000 MW of solar generation through a combination of PPAs and company-owned assets. The 640 MW of solar PPAs would be expected to come online in 2026.
The 240 MW of company-owned solar would come online in 2026 and 2027. We are proposing a four-hour, 125 MW battery storage facility to be online by 2026. The total capital investment associated with this plan is approximately $2.1 billion from 2023-2028. We expect a decision from the Kentucky Commission in the fourth quarter of this year. Turning to slide nine. The result of our plan would be a generation portfolio that can reliably serve our customers' energy needs at the lowest reasonable cost, while at the same time significantly reducing our emissions. This plan puts into action tangible progress towards achieving our net zero goals in a responsible and economic manner.
Looking at the chart on the left, by the time this plan is in full effect, we expect our carbon emissions to be one-third of what they were in 2010. Further, as shown on the chart on the upper right, our carbon intensity is projected to improve by over 25% and will be more in line with our peers. Our generation mix shifts from about 80% coal today to a mix that is less than 50% from coal, about 40% from gas, and approximately 10% from renewables, primarily solar. We continue to invest in industry-leading R&D to economically reach net zero by 2050. This includes our leading initiatives in carbon capture technology with the Department of Energy and University of Kentucky, utility scale energy storage technology, solar powered electric vehicle charging, and renewable hydrogen blending in our gas operations.
Turning to slide 10. We remain laser-focused on executing our business transformation plan and are confident in increasing our targeted annual O&M savings by $25 million in 2026. In total, we now have a clear line of sight on at least $175 million of annual savings by 2026. The source of these incremental savings is primarily driven by implementing common systems across the company within our T&D operations as we continue to execute our Utility of the Future playbook. Our Utility of the Future playbook is about building self-healing grids with automation, technology and data science. We are now leveraging the vast amount of data we obtain from thousands of smart sensors on our grid to minimize labor-intensive work, automate our customer service functions, including the use of self-service technologies, and monitor our assets to predict failures before they occur and cause outages.
We have made substantial progress in testing and piloting the technologies needed to achieve these results. We are now implementing these technologies across our entire portfolio of utilities, which will take several years to complete. What excites me most is that we'll continue to see additional opportunities to drive efficiencies throughout our business for years to come as we realize the benefits of our actions and scale these best practices across our utilities. I'll now turn the call over to Joe to review in more detail the financial aspects of our updated plan. Joe?
Thank you, Vince. Good morning, everyone. I share Vince's enthusiasm on our updated plan and the progress we've made to date and look forward to sharing some of the key financial highlights with you. Turning to slide 12. We've made some important updates that further strengthen and lengthen PPL's financial outlook. First, we expect the incremental capital that Vince outlined will experience minimal regulatory lag as most of these investments are subject to existing regulatory mechanisms. This includes key additions to transmission investments under FERC formula rates and the investments in our new generation facilities in Kentucky as we've requested to record them as construction work in progress and accrue AFUDC on those investments. Importantly, AFUDC treatment would enable us to defer our next rate case in Kentucky to beyond 2026, which is positive for our customers.
Looking across the five-year plan, we now project over 60% of our total capital investments will be recovered by or subject to existing regulatory mechanisms. Our CapEx plan continues to reflect only identified projects and does not include placeholders. In our second key update, we've increased our load assumptions in both Pennsylvania and Kentucky due to the strong trends and economic development we continue to experience in our service territories. We are now incorporating about a half a % of base customer load growth in both Pennsylvania and Kentucky. We have also added the expected load increases from the Ford battery plants in Kentucky. We continue to expect further development with the build-out of ancillary load from these facilities and the record economic development in the state, which would be upside to our plan.
The third key update is that we've reflected current macroeconomic assumptions in this plan and remain extremely confident in delivering on our stated growth targets. This includes incorporating the impacts from higher interest rates and inflation. Our teams have done a phenomenal job in managing these risks, including achieving constructive outcomes with our labor contracts, diversifying our suppliers, and managing our pension plans with our liability-driven strategy, which minimizes pension expense volatility. All of these factors and more have positioned the company well to successfully navigate macroeconomic risks and deliver our long-term plan. The fourth key consideration is that we continue to expect minimal rate case activity within the planning period. As Vince mentioned, we are only expecting to have a base rate case in Rhode Island following the stay-out period agreed to in the acquisition filing with rates effective mid-2026.
Our efficiency model and capital trackers support earning our allowed returns without rate cases in Pennsylvania or Kentucky through at least 2026. This is important as we consider the impacts of rising commodity prices on our customers and strive to deliver premier service in the most affordable manner. Finally, we continue to see value in maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund our organic growth and expect to deliver our targeted 16%-18% FFO to debt metrics throughout the plan period. We can achieve this without the need to issue equity at least through our planning horizon. We also expect our holding company debt to total debt ratio to remain below 25% throughout the plan period.
While we have made several enhancements to this plan, we continue to see several upside opportunities that further enhance our growth predictability, providing potential offsets if we experience prolonged inflation impacts and may even support stronger growth. These include the load growth upside previously noted, additional opportunities for further cost efficiencies as we execute our playbook and drive towards top quartile performance, and continued progress on identifying CapEx opportunities in areas with tracking mechanisms. We have an ample backlog of longer-dated CapEx opportunities, including implementing the Utility of the Future playbook in Kentucky and Rhode Island, continuous evaluation of the most cost-effective generation resources for our customers, offshore transmission spending in New England, and resiliency and grid hardening across our jurisdictions. All told, we are in excellent shape from a financial perspective and are excited to execute on this enhanced plan for our customers and shareowners. Turning to slide 13.
We are initiating a 2023 EPS forecast of $1.50-$1.65 per share with a midpoint of $1.58 per share. This represents a 13% increase from the midpoint of our 2022 EPS forecast of $1.40 per share, which we remain very confident in achieving this year. As Vince noted, this is a 7% increase from the midpoint of the 2022 pro forma forecast of $1.48 per share, which is in line with our targeted EPS growth rate. We will provide additional details on our fourth quarter call once we have finalized the 2022 results. Turning to slide 14. The dividend is a core component of PPL's investment proposition.
Today, we've announced an expected increase, subject to board approval, of our next quarterly dividend to $0.24 per share from $0.225 per share. This represents about a 7% increase from our January 3rd dividend, which is also in line with our stated growth targets. As we have previously discussed, we are committed to growing the dividend in line with earnings growth, placing us among the leaders in our sector in dividend growth. Combining our targeted EPS growth with our dividend yield provides investors with a compelling total return proposition in the range of 9%-11% per year. Turning to slide 15. Our plan update reflects meaningful capital additions across our utilities that will deliver real value for both customers and shareowners.
The largest increase was in Kentucky due to the addition of $1.6 billion of the $2.1 billion total capital for new generation facilities through 2026. About $1.1 billion of that investment will be in the two combined cycle gas units. $240 million is planned for the construction of the 120 MW solar installation, and about $270 million of the investment is expected in the battery storage facility. The $500 million balance of the generation replacement investment will support growth beyond the planning period in 2027 and 2028. This includes an additional $300 million required for the combined cycle gas units and $200 million related to the purchase of the third-party solar facility.
We have also increased our capital plan by about $1 billion to further expand our industry-leading transmission solutions, primarily in the 2024-2026 time frame. This includes more than $700 million in Pennsylvania and $300 million in Rhode Island of FERC transmission capital under formula rates to further asset resiliency and advance smart grid technology. Our plan update also reflects our recently filed grid modernization, ISR, and advanced metering plans in Rhode Island, which are subject to regulatory approval. These plans provide a blueprint for many of the necessary investments that will enable the grid of the future, which is critical to the state's clean energy goals. Our update this morning builds on our already robust base capital plan that includes critical investments needed for enhanced network resiliency, reliability, and safety.
We're excited to deliver this plan for our customers as we deliver the clean energy future and provide an exceptional customer experience at an affordable price. Turning to slide 16. I previously noted that our updated plan continues to support our strong FFO to debt targets of 16%-18% without the need for equity issuances. As demonstrated on this chart, we plan to leverage our strong operating cash flows and debt financing to fund our capital investments. Most of these debt issuances are expected to be at the utility companies. While we also expect some holding company issuances to fund our CapEx plan, we project our holding company debt to total debt ratio to remain below 25% over the planning horizon. This is an important metric as it helps to reduce the risk profile assigned by the credit rating agencies. Turning to slide 17.
We've worked very hard to create one of the sector's best credit profiles, which we believe positions PPL to achieve a higher relative valuation. Our strong balance sheet will continue to support growth capital investment opportunities like those that we've outlined today. As you can see by the chart on the right of the slide, strong credit metrics has translated into value for shareowners. We believe the combination of our strong credit, robust rate base growth, continued line of sight to O&M savings, and strong regulatory jurisdictions that yield PPL's predictable, linear, and sustainable EPS growth provide a very attractive investment proposition for utility investors. We've already seen a 1.5 turn improvement in our relative valuation to peers since the Investor Day and believe that continued execution of our strategy supports a premium valuation over time. That concludes my prepared remarks.
I'll turn the call back over to Vince.
Thank you, Joe. In closing, I want to briefly recap today's updates and reiterate my excitement for all that we have accomplished and are positioned to deliver on. We initiated the midpoint of our 2023 forecast of $1.58 per share, in line with our 6%-8% annual growth target off the 2022 pro forma forecast of $1.48 per share. We've extended our 6%-8% earnings and dividend growth targets to 2026. We've added key investments to our capital plans and are now projecting rate base growth of over 5.5% per year, including over 7% rate base growth in the back half of the plan. We've increased our targeted annual O&M savings by more than 15% to at least $175 million by 2026.
We are economically advancing our clean energy strategy through a plan that would provide safe, reliable, and affordable energy for our customers and reduce our coal generation by about a third, significantly reducing our carbon footprint. We developed this plan without the need for equity issuances, given the strength of our balance sheet. Finally, we continue to enhance the already strong governance structure at PPL with the addition of Linda Sullivan to our board of directors. When I became PPL CEO, improving our relative TSR performance was a priority for me as we pursued our strategy to provide safe, reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for our customers. I strongly believe that we are on track to do just that.
I'm very proud of the team we've assembled here at PPL and what we've already accomplished in a relatively short period of time, from selling our U.K. assets at a record valuation and acquiring a phenomenal asset in Rhode Island Energy to more recently delivering on and exceeding the goals set at our investor day last June despite rising interest rates and inflation. The actions we have taken have resulted in a significant relative improvement in our share price performance, and this is reflected in PPL's improved relative valuation versus peers. Our focus moving forward is to continue this momentum as we work to attain a premium valuation in our sector. It is a fantastic time to be a part of this company, and we remain as excited as ever about PPL's bright future. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble a roster. Our first question will come from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Morning, Shar.
Good morning. Vince, you know, the latest update points towards strong rate-based growth in the back half of the plan. How should we, I guess, think about the runway of 6-8 as you flip from, you know, O&M savings to Kentucky spend and then beyond? I guess put differently, you know, at a high level, I guess, where do you see the next incremental opportunities as we look at 27 and beyond, as you kind of continue to close the gap between rate-based growth and EPS growth?
Yeah, sure, Shar. You know, the update that we provided today was, you know, obviously a comprehensive update through 2026. As we look beyond 2026, we are seeing significant capital opportunities as we think longer term, right? When we're looking at grid modernization, grid resiliency, digital transformation, we're looking at transmission upgrades across all three of the jurisdictions, replacing the aging infrastructure in Kentucky, including the assets that we talked about at length today. You know, some of that spend moves into the 2027, 2028 timeframe. We're seeing plenty of opportunity for earnings growth through the end of the decade, Shar. That's really will be driven by a continued combination of both rate-based growth and the continuation of our O&M efficiency strategy. While we're not providing guidance today beyond 2026, you know, clearly our focus is to maintain that growth rate.
Okay, perfect. That's what I was trying to allude to. Thanks, Vince. I know substantial update on the Rhode Island CapEx plan, and it's kind of the segments within. What's driving the CapEx above the top end of your prior guide in 25, as we're focusing there from the $750 range to the $875? How should we sort of think about the run rates there going forward, especially on the gas side?
Yeah. Well, the plans that we put in place, right? We just filed the ISR, the grid modernization and the AMI plan. Those were all, you know, comprehensively put together to determine, you know, what we feel is required to meet the state's 100% renewable energy requirements by 2033 and support much needed system upgrades to support resiliency and reliability of the grid. A lot of this, Shar, is really just as we've, you know, taken ownership of the asset, we're taking physical stock of the condition of the assets and fine-tuning our plans to really meet the legislative requirements that have been set. Also includes a lot of grid enhancement to connect a lot more DER penetration. We've talked in the past about the backlog that we're seeing there.
We expect, you know, that to continue as well. Grid modernization on the cost side, right? We are expecting grid modernization will help to reduce costs for our customers longer term as we deploy those capital investments. Again, we keep rates, you know, front and center as we're thinking about our capital plans, our capital strategy, you know, should continue to result in O&M efficiencies as we move through the plan.
Terrific. Then just real quick, lastly, just the Pennsylvania distribution CapEx, it declined a bit between, you know, 2023 and 2025 from the prior guide. Anything we should be reading into there?
No, I would just say fine-tuning, you know, where we're deploying the CapEx. You know, we'll continue to look at opportunities in distribution longer term, but for this-Five year cycle. I think the priority is on getting some of those transmission investments in and then the generation replacement.
Terrific. Congrats, Vince, on a, you know, fantastic update and big congrats on Linda. That's a huge win for you guys. Thanks. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Shar. Appreciate it.
The next question comes from Nicholas Campanella of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Appreciate it. Just on the EPS CAGR, you know, appreciate the comments. You kind of high-graded the forecast for inflation, interest rates, the higher load, etc. Just given the fact that you're executing on these O&M savings, you're not in rate cases, do you still expect to kind of grow linearly through this forecast period through 2026, or how would you kind of frame where you are in this CAGR, 2024, 2025, 2026? Thanks.
Yeah, we expect our growth to be linear. you know, if you look at 2023 off of our 2022 pro forma, it's solidly in that 6%-8% range. Yeah, Nick, we expect a linear growth rate throughout the time period.
Thanks. Just I assume on the CapEx increase, you're largely funding it with parent debt. You know, I hear you on the comments, 16%-18% range. Where do you stand in that range?
Yeah. Hey, Nick, it's Joe. We'll fund that through a combination of operating company debt and holding company debt, maintaining that 16%-18% credit and holdco debt to total debt below the 25% mark from the rating agencies. We would expect to be right around the midpoint of that range, so right around 17% through the period.
Got it. Appreciate that. Just one last one, if I can, just on the inflation topic, you know, understanding the gas business is a little smaller than, or is much smaller than the electric business, the strips come in a lot here over the near term. Can you just, you know, help us understand if that's translating to lower bills for customers? Does it inform your hedging strategy at all for 23 and 24 to the extent that you have one? That would be helpful. Thanks.
Yeah, sure. Nick, again, it's Joe. It should certainly be beneficial to customers as we move forward. For the winter, we're hedged pretty much, wouldn't see a major impact on a customer bill perspective with the strips coming in, as you indicated. On a longer term basis, it would be certainly offset to some of the bill increases that we've recently seen if it sticks.
Thanks a lot. Have a great day.
Yeah. Thanks, Nick. You too.
The next question comes from David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Oh, hey. Good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. Great update.
Good morning, Dave.
Let's see. Do you think you could give your latest thinking on the load growth outlook here with the increase, up to the 0.5%, and which customer classes are you seeing that come from, whether it's resi versus commercial here?
Yeah, sure, Dave. It's Joe. Look, as we said, we're updating our load forecast here. To a 0.5%. What we've been seeing in Pennsylvania and Kentucky is about a 0.5%-1% load growth. We're incorporating the lower end of that range, which obviously then provides some potential upside to the plan or offset if we see a higher interest rates or inflation over the period. Where we're seeing that is in both jurisdictions is predominantly in the C&I space. Just as a reminder, Rhode Island's decoupled, so there's no-- that's why we're not factoring any load in there.
Yep. Got it. That makes sense. Could you touch on the cost cut outlook here in the near term? What's your confidence level in the 2023 targets or 2023 and 2024 targets still on track? I was curious what quartile this plan would bring you to by the end of it for the different subsidiaries.
Sure. We, as you know, we're targeting longer term first quartile operating efficiency performance across the utilities. We, in terms of the near term target, Dave, we're feeling very confident in our ability to achieve actually all of the savings that we've provided through 2026. We have plans in place to achieve those. We're well underway in our execution of those. We've already completed the centralization of shared services activities. We talked about that a little bit on the third quarter call. We were ahead of schedule on that. The other areas around system implementations and deploying our smart grid across the portfolio, we're right on schedule with all of that. Feeling very confident in our ability to achieve that.
We do have, in terms of quartiles, EUI will be, you know, moving into first quartile. The others will still be in the second quartile. We are, we did include slide 25 in the appendix, which just shows, you know, the benchmarking when we look at our O&M per customer for the various utilities. If you just look at the T&D, the electric T&D component of that alone, it's about a $200 million opportunity. As we've updated here on the call, we've only included about $105 million of that through 2026 in the $175 million target. There's quite a bit of runway for us to continue with our efficiency strategy beyond 2026.
That doesn't include, you know, the other parts of the business.
Okay, excellent. Thanks so much for the color.
Sure.
The next question comes from Paul Zimbardo of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi Dan. Thank you.
Hey, Paul.
A couple of cleanup ones. Thank you for the update again. On the 50 basis points customer load growth that you just talked about, could you quantify how much the EPS contribution that is? Also, is it fair to think about that it's more later in the plan when some of this discrete load comes online, or is it more ratable?
Yeah, Paul, you're not coming through very clear. I think you asked what was the quantification of the load growth, 0.5%? 0.5% is about $0.01-$0.02 per year.
Okay. Apologies about the phone. I think intermittent. Is that ratable or is that more with the discrete load coming on later in the horizon?
That's ratable. The 50 basis point increase is on base load. In addition to that, we've added in the back part of the plan, the expected load increase that we see coming on from the Ford battery plants, starting in 2025.
Okay, great. I feel compelled to ask, just given the strong organic standalone plan, would you entertain any of the potential acquisition opportunities if they come on the market?
Well, as you said, our plan has significant organic growth opportunities, and that's where our focus is. We don't need M&A to deliver this growth plan. Yeah, our focus is on delivering what we just laid out.
Okay, excellent. Thank you all very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Gregg Orrill of UBS. Please go ahead.
Morning, Greg.
Yeah. Hi. Hey, good morning. Congratulations. As you head into the Kentucky CPCN, you know, regulatory process, what's the, you know, case that you would make to customers for the spending around that? Thank you.
Sure. We've, you know, we've really developed a very comprehensive plan. Again, we think delivers a very balanced generation portfolio as we look to replace our coal facilities that are reaching end of life. We have kept, you know, reliability and affordability for our customers, very front and center as we've developed that plan. The investments that we've put forward in there, we believe clearly benefit our customers. They're transitioning to lower cost assets. They are obviously lower carbon sources of energy. Economically, they are advantageous for our customers over the long term. Overall, the generation mix is clearly least cost and will have a minimal, if any, impact on our customer rates.
As we go through the process, Gregg, you know, we look forward to engaging with all of our stakeholders in Kentucky, to provide the support on why we believe this is the best plan forward for our customers.
Do you need approval to implement the AFUDC in Kentucky?
Yes, we've requested that as part of the CPCN filing, to record AFUDC on the assets. That'll benefit our customers as well because it enables us to extend the rate case stay out period.
Okay, thank you.
Sure.
The next question comes from Ryan Levine of Citi. Please go ahead.
Good morning.
Hi, Ryan.
Given there's some conservatism built into this plan, where do you see the biggest opportunities for upside, given potential upside to load forecasts and some of the other key components?
Well, first I would just reiterate that we really remain confident in our ability to deliver at least the midpoint of our growth range. The update today should give investors that same level of confidence based on our expectations, the 2023 outlook that we came out with and the extension of our 6%-8% in dividend growth rate through 2026. Joe, why don't you talk a little bit about, you know, specific drivers that we see within the range?
Yeah, sure. The drivers for our range are really consistent with what we talked about in our prior plan. From an upside perspective, they include additional O&M efficiencies, which come from the business transformation that we've been talking about, additional CapEx opportunities, particularly in areas that we see track capital opportunities as we're executing the plan. Of course, interest rates and inflation could be positive or negative to the plan. The load trends again, always could be the plus or minus on the plan. Again, we've only there implemented or included here 0.5% of load growth, and we've been seeing 0.5%-1%. The bias is to the upside at this point.
We have multiple levers at our disposal, which really gives us the confidence, in the midpoint of our range and the potential for upsides.
Appreciate the color. To expand, you highlighted the growth could be extended beyond 2026. As you're going through this plan, is there an expectation that the CapEx numbers would continue at a fairly ratable portion into 2027? Or is there more of a sharp demarcation line in terms of year-end 2026 that's embedded in this?
Yeah, we're not, you know, we're not providing specific guidance beyond 26. Joe, do you wanna talk about just high level, how we're thinking about CapEx beyond 26?
Yeah, sure. We see, as we said in our prepared remarks, significant capital investment opportunities beyond this planning horizon, as we establish the Utility of the Future. Again, we talked about grid modernization, grid resiliency, transmission upgrades, digital transformation, just replacing aging infrastructure. Then we don't complete the generation build-out here for this replacement generation in this time period. We have additional spending in 2027 and 2028 to complete that generation replacement build as well. We see plenty of opportunity to deploy capital across our service territories.
Yeah. Ryan, it's Vince. You know, when you look at the $2.5 billion incremental capital that we identified, you know, most of that was contemplated in the $27 billion through 2030 that we talked about. There was about a $0.5 billion-$1 billion of incremental capital identified, you know, above the original $27 billion. Again, as we continue to execute the plan, we continue to find required projects to, you know, sure up safety, reliability, grid resiliency, et cetera. Again, we're feeling confident in our ability to continue to grow earnings beyond 2026. Again, I would see that being a combination of rate-based growth and operating efficiencies, again, given the long runway we see in that strategy.
Thank you.
Sure.
Next question comes from Anthony Crowdell of Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Vince. Good morning, Joe.
Morning, Anthony.
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks so much for the great update. Just two quick questions, one more housekeeping. Just you talk about maybe some additional interest you're taking on at the parent and you're assuming inflation. Just curious for modeling purposes, what type of rate are you assuming on the issuance of the debt at the parent?
Yeah, Anthony, it's Joe. We don't have a single rate in our business plan. As you would imagine, we look across the portfolio and where we're gonna issue that debt, whether it's at the operating companies or the holding companies, and think about various tenors across those entities. Of course, we have other options at our disposal, including short-term debt. There's not one rate. What I could tell you though, is that we are current with what the rates you're seeing in today's market.
Great. If I could pivot, it, you know, I think I remember writing notes when you bought WPD, but I'm just the transformation probably since June has been pretty significant and well deserved. Just we've had the timing has been the catalyst that has been going out, I think, since June. You guys have been really on top of it. We've got a lot of updates. I mean, when we look from here forward, is it, you know, do we keep getting updates like this out of cycle updates, or is it gonna be more of you thinking execution, delivering on quarters? 'Cause we've kind of been spoiled of, you know, from investor data now, there's been a lot of data points, a lot of information that's come out. What can we think about now going forward?
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Anthony. Look, I would say we will get back to our normal cadence of updates. It was, again, we felt it was important to get out as soon as we could, given the significant regulatory filings that we just made in Kentucky and Rhode Island, the significant progress that we've made in the other areas of the business, our continued confidence in, you know, where we're gonna come out on 2022, and then of course, our growth for 2023. We also know that, you know, the year-end call cycle is extremely busy for investors, and we didn't want these updates to get lost among all of those other calls, given the significance.
Then of course, we have an investor conference over the next two days, and so we wanted to be able to talk to investors about these updates, and so it was important for us to get out in front of that. Once we get past this, I would expect that we'll be back on our normal cadence.
Great. Just since I joined the queue, you may not wanna answer this, just some Bloomberg news hit, that you know, an activist, maybe a top 10 holder, you know, I don't know if there's any comment on it, but just any particular discussions or anything that maybe drove the update or the involvement of the activists in the PPL story?
No, nothing, Anthony. You know, those are market rumors and speculation. As you know, we don't comment on rumors. This update, again, we've been talking about these updates with investors really as we moved through last year. Again, I don't think any of these are a surprise to the market. You know, this is really just our update.
Great. Thanks for taking my questions and congratulations again.
Thanks.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Vince Sorgi for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Just wanna thank everybody for joining us today. The group of us heading down to Florida for the Evercore conference over the next two days. For those of you that'll be there, we look forward to seeing you. That concludes our call. Thanks again for joining us.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.