Perimeter Solutions, Inc. (PRM)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 3, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Perimeter Solutions 2Q 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star and 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Seth Barker, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Seth Barker
VP of Investor Relations and VP of Financial Planning and Analysis, Perimeter Solutions

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Perimeter Solutions second quarter 2023 earnings call. Speaking on today's call are Haitham Khouri, Chief Executive Officer, and Chuck Kropp, Chief Financial Officer. We want to remind anyone who may be listening to a replay of this call that all statements made are as of today, August third, 2023, and these statements have not been, nor will they be updated subsequent to today's call. Also, today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These statements made today are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs about our business and the environment in which we operate, and our actual results may materially differ from those expressed or implied on today's call. Please review our SEC filings for a more complete discussion of factors that could impact our results.

The company would also like to advise you that during the call, we will be referring to non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our earnings press release and presentation, both of which will be available on our website and on the SEC's website. I will turn the call over to Haitham Khouri, Chief Executive Officer.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Thank you, Seth. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'll start with summary comments on our strategy, then discuss our financial performance and capital allocation before turning the call over to Chuck. Starting with our strategy on slide three, our goal is to deliver private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market. We plan to attain this goal by owning, operating, and growing uniquely high-quality businesses. We define uniquely high-quality businesses through the following five very specific economic criteria: One, recurring and predictable revenue streams. Two, long-term secular growth tailwinds. Three, products that account for critical but small portions of larger value streams. Four, significant free cash flow generation with high returns on tangible capital. Five, the potential for opportunistic consolidation. We believe that these five economic criteria are present at our current businesses, and we use these criteria to evaluate potential new acquisitions.

As described on slide four, we seek to drive long-term equity value creation via consistent improvement in our three operational value drivers, which are profitable new business, continual productivity improvements, and pricing to reflect the value we provide. In addition to our three operational value drivers, we seek to maximize equity value creation through a clear focus on the allocation of our capital, as well as the management of our capital structure. Turning to our financial results for the second quarter, starting with Fire Safety. As we've noted in the past, while we expect predictable long-term growth in our Fire Safety business, we also expect an element of quarterly and annual variability tied primarily to the severity of the North American fire season.

On our first quarter call, we observed that this past winter and spring were particularly wet in some of the most fire-prone regions of the United States, and therefore, that the 2023 fire season would likely experience a delayed start. This expectation materialized. As of the end of Q2, year to date, U.S. acres burned ex-Alaska were down 70% year-over-year and more than 50% below their 10-year average. The very mild early U.S. fire season is reflected in our first half Fire Safety results, where second quarter and year to date Adjusted EBITDA decreased 32% and 37%, respectively. Fire Safety's results significantly outperformed the 70% decline in the U.S. acres burned ex-Alaska for 3 primary reasons. First, our U.S. retardant business benefited from ongoing productivity and value-based pricing initiatives.

Second, our international retardant results were strong, with the second quarter particularly active in Canada. Third, our global suppressants business also delivered very strong results, with significant year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion. We've commented previously on the so-solid organic revenue and profit growth in our international retardant markets. We're again experiencing excellent results here in 2023, with international retardant revenue more than doubling year-over-year in the first half and Adjusted EBITDA posting excellent growth as well. We expect solid revenue growth and consistent margin expansion to continue in our international retardant markets going forward. Let me also take a moment to discuss the performance of our global suppressants business.

While we won't make a habit of breaking out suppressants results, I would like to highlight our progress over the past 18 months in order to provide another example of how our operating strategy is impacting our business's financial performance. In 2021, our suppressants business delivered an Adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-teens. In the first half of 2023, our suppressants business delivered an Adjusted EBITDA margin in the low 30s. We expect our full year 2023 suppressants Adjusted EBITDA margin to be in line with, if not slightly above, our low 30s first half margins. This near doubling of sustainable margins over an 18-month period, coupled with an organic revenue CAGR well into the double digits, reflects strong progress by our suppressants business unit leaders in implementing all three aspects of our three Ps operating model.

First, driving profitable new business, primarily through our market-leading fluorine-free foam offerings. Second, making solid progress on our productivity initiatives. Third, pricing our products and services to more accurately reflect the value they provide our customers. Turning now to specialty products. As evidenced by the fact that our Q2 sales didn't improve versus Q1, and were down notably versus the prior year's second quarter, the inventory destock activity that commenced in late 2022 persisted throughout the first half of 2023. Despite weak end market demand, we believe that pricing and market share in our specialty products business remained solid in the first half of this year.

As I mentioned on the Q1 call, while it's difficult to predict precisely when inventory destocks will abate, they are definitionally temporary in nature and should end when channel inventories are depleted, which we believe will inevitably occur in this case as well. Before moving away from our operating results, let me make a summary comment reflecting on our first 18 or so months as a public company. In summary, we are very confident in our three Ps operating strategy and believe that we are driving significant improvement across each of our business lines through this operating strategy. The results are very clear in suppressants. The results are also very clear in our international retardant markets. The results are clear in specialty products when comparing 2022 to 2021, both of which we believe to be roughly similar market demand years.

As I just discussed, the soft chemicals end market is temporarily obscuring the improvement so far this year. The results are not yet clear to investors in our retardant business. This is primarily because our first couple of wildfire seasons have been very mild, with 2022 US acres burned ex-Alaska down 36% year-over-year, and first half 2023 acres burned down a further 70%. That said, with everything we've learned over the past 18 months, we feel strongly that our retardant business fits our long-term criteria for businesses we want to own and is a business in which our value creation playbook applies. We feel excellent about the underlying improvement in our retardant business, and we are confident that this improvement will be visible to investors in a more normal fire season. Turning now to cash and capital allocation.

We repurchased approximately 4 million shares in the second quarter at an average purchase price of $6.58. We have approximately 71.6 million remaining on our existing repurchase authorization, and we ended the second quarter with approximately 22 million of cash on our balance sheet. Turning to M&A. Over the past 12-18 months, capital markets have been challenging and overall M&A activity has been tepid. This challenging market backdrop, combined with the consecutive mild fire seasons over the same time frame, have impacted our M&A efforts. However, we believe that slow M&A markets and soft fire seasons are transitory phenomena. In the meantime, we are honing our operational playbook and building our M&A pipeline.

We are confident that we will eventually acquire the right business, where our three Ps playbook applies, and therefore, where we expect to drive improvements in line with what we've delivered at our different businesses so far at Perimeter. M&A remains a key part of our long-term value creation playbook. Between our available cash balance and the significant free cash flow we expect to generate in the second half of 2023, which Chuck will touch on here shortly, we believe that we're well positioned to take advantage of any potential compelling capital allocation opportunities that might arise, including potential acquisitions, significant share repurchases, or otherwise. Let me now comment on the, on the competitive environment in our retardant business. We don't control what will occur around the potential introduction of competing retardant products. We do, however, control how we prepare for potential competition and we are preparing vigorously.

Perimeter is the gold standard as far as the efficacy and safety of our products, quality of our service, and the passion, dedication, and integrity of our people. However, we will not get complacent. We are pushing harder than ever to raise the bar on ourselves in every aspect of our business. We believe this competitive mentality will make us an even better company, irrespective of the what, when, and how of potential competition. Turning finally to our full year 2023 financial expectations. We're confident that the unit economics of all our businesses are improved in 2023 versus 2022. Therefore, we're confident that with similar year-over-year end market conditions in 2023 versus 2022, each of our businesses should deliver notably improved year-over-year financial results.

That said, our 2023 financial results will largely depend on these end market conditions, namely, the severity of the US fire season and the timing of the normalization of the specialty products end market. Specifically, if the second half of the US fire season is severe to the point where it compensates for the mild first half, such that the overall 23 US fire season is an on-trend fire season, and if the specialty products end market normalizes in the second half, we are comfortable that consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $180 million is a reasonable expectation for 2023. That said, if these end markets fail to recover, as I just articulated in the second half, we'd expect to deliver softer year. In either case, we will focus on what we can control.

We will continue to press on each of our value drivers across each of our business units and grow our latent long-term earnings power. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chuck.

Chuck Kropp
CFO, Perimeter Solutions

Thanks, Haitham. Turning to slide six. Second quarter sales in our Fire Safety business were $53.1 million, down 20% versus the prior year, and $71.9 million year-to-date, down 15% versus the prior year. The decline was driven by lower fire retardant sales in the United States, partially offset by higher international retardant sales and higher suppressant sales. Second quarter Adjusted EBITDA in our Fire Safety business was $16.5 million, down 32% versus the prior year, and $13.2 million year-to-date, down 37% versus the prior year. Second quarter sales in our specialty products business were $23 million, down 33% versus the prior year, and $48.1 million year-to-date, down 35% versus the prior year.

Second quarter Adjusted EBITDA in our specialty products business was $4.5 million, down 61% versus the prior year, and $10.9 million year to date, down 59% versus the prior year. As Haitham noted, we believe that our pricing and market share in specialty products are similar to last year, and that the first half weakness is primarily attributable to temporarily soft and market demand. Moving on to the consolidated business. Second quarter consolidated sales were $76.1 million, down 25% versus the prior year, and $120 million year to date, down 24% versus the prior year. Second quarter consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $21 million, down 41% versus the prior year, and $24.1 million year to date, down 49% versus the prior year. Moving below Adjusted EBITDA.

Interest expense in the second quarter was $10.3 million, in line with our regular quarterly run rate. Depreciation was approximately $2.4 million, while amortization expense was $13.8 million. Cash paid for income tax was $8.2 million in Q2. CapEx was approximately $1.9 million in Q2. Our full year 2023 expectations for interest expense, depreciation, taxes, working capital, and CapEx are unchanged. We ended the quarter with approximately $675 million of senior notes, cash of approximately $22.1 million, and approximately 154.5 million basic shares outstanding. Slide 8 bridges our basic and diluted share count, which includes shares issuable under the Founder Advisory Agreement in future periods. We expect our second half cash generation to be strong as we draw down from our peak inventory levels.

Even if the second half fire season is relatively mild, such that the 2023 U.S. fire season looks like the mild 2022 U.S. season, we expect to generate approximately $100 million or more in second half-

2023 free cash flow and end the year with over $120 million in cash on our balance sheet. This figure will, of course, change if the second half of the fire season is extremely mild or if we deploy capital towards M&A or share repurchases. With that, I'll hand the call back to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Yeah. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I actually want to follow up on one of the last points that Chuck made just on free cash flow. A $100 million in second half, if you have similar year-on-year performance, what's the implied EBITDA behind that?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

You asked what the EBITDA assumption is behind that?

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Yes.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

We haven't disclosed that, Josh. I mean, it's not, it's not the hardest thing in the world to back solve to, but we haven't disclosed it.

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Yeah, I guess the variables working capital. I, I, I assume in that scenario, you'd have a pretty significant working capital release. Can you size that?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Definitely gonna convert some inventory to cash, no question. But in terms of overall working capital, in line with our expectations.

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Okay. Let me try it a different way here. I mean, Hait, if you were i t's helpful to kind of understand your view if we get back to a normal fire season. I mean, is there a way to think about, you know, if things are similar year-on-year or still remain down 50%, I guess, what levers are in your control to have EBITDA growth? Because you talked about, I think, delivering growth even in that scenario. Maybe exclude specialty, because I think we can make our own assumptions on destocking there. But within Fire Safety, you know, I think probably the uplift you describe in suppressants is maybe a few million. I guess, what on the retardant side gives you conviction that you could deliver growth in that scenario?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

It's just a question of unit economics, Josh. At, at this point in the fire season, frankly, the cake is largely baked on, on what the unit economics are. What, what, what we sort of harvest today are, are the efforts we've put in over the past 12, 18 months, and the question is just what, what have we been able to do, as far as, number 1, offering more value to our customers and being fairly compensated for that value in the form of pricing. Number 2, reducing and improving our costs through productivity. The benefit, the net of both of those is, is unit economics. We feel like we've done enough on a unit economic basis to do meaningfully better than last year, all things being equal.

It's, it's almost impossible to do enough on unit economics to overcome the 70% decline in acres we had in the first half. The, the ultimate second half result will, will, will be based on the ultimate second half, to a varying elector of, of the fire season. But we feel, we feel very good about the work we've done on what we control here, which is unit economics per gallon sold.

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Okay, thanks. If I could just ask one more and, and just go on hit specialty briefly. I mean, I imagine you're not going to want to break out price or volume for us. I'd just ask, like, with what we're seeing, you know, majority destocking, has anything changed on the pricing side in terms of what you're getting? When destocking ends, you know, is that unit economic for you guys better or worse than where you exited last year?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

We feel very good, very good that it is no worse than last year, i.e., our unit economics, if anything, have improved versus last year. Everything you're seeing there is lower volume. I'll add, you can have, you can have lower volume due to lower market demand or lower market share, and we feel very good that it is not a function of lower market share, but rather a function of, of, of a destock, which has persisted throughout the first half. Like you said, the prepared remarks will, will end at some point. Hard, hard to predict when exactly.

Josh Spector
Executive Director, Chemicals Equity Research, UBS

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian DiRubbio with Baird. Please go ahead.

Brian DiRubbio
Analyst, Baird

Good morning, gentlemen. Just a couple of questions for me. I want, want to focus on working capital and specifically just the inventory build over the last year. I think by my numbers, inventories are up about 32.5%. Can you help us get a sense of, you know, I understand the fire season's been, you know, crushed versus last year and probably it's versus expectations, but just would love to get a sense of, you know, what that inventory is comprised of, how much of that is, you know, retardants versus maybe specialty products, you know, and, and how's that gonna impact your plant operating rates going forward? Just love to get the dynamics here.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Sure. Majority of it is in the Fire Safety retardant market. There is some impact on specialty products with the destock, but not nearly as impactful as Fire Safety. You know, there is some impact to the operations, but in terms of just being prepared for the customer, that's what we're focused on, and that's what that inventory is there for.

Brian DiRubbio
Analyst, Baird

Okay, understood. Just as we think about, you know, cash flow, cash needs, capital allocation, what's the minimum liquidity level that you're comfortable running the business at over a, you know, year period?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

I'm not gonna give you an exact number, Brian, but the answer is not, not, not much at all. We ended the second quarter with a little over $20 million on the balance sheet and are very, very comfortable at that level. It's some number meaningfully lower than that. Keep in mind, we have a $100 million revolver, which is undrawn and has, in fact, never, never been drawn. We're very comfortable with our liquidity situation.

Brian DiRubbio
Analyst, Baird

Yeah, maybe just if you don't mind, put it a different way, would you be comfortable drawing your revolver for the right opportunity, in terms of capital allocation?

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Temporarily, we would. I don't, I don't think you want to run long term with a drawn revolver as part of your permanent capital structure. But would we go into our revolver to capture a very high IRR short-term opportunity with good visibility into paying it down relatively quickly? Yeah, we would.

Brian DiRubbio
Analyst, Baird

Great. That does it for me. Thanks for all the color.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Yeah. Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Kutz with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Daniel Kutz
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Hey, Dan.

Daniel Kutz
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I just wanted to ask on. I'm, I'm sure you guys have been getting a lot of questions, and we have on, on the severe Canada wildfire season, and I appreciate that, maybe, you know, you guys, kind of, revenue and earnings in that market is, is maybe less of a direct correlation to acres burned than it is in the US because of differences in the way that Canada fights wildfires. I, I just wanted to ask the question, if there's anything that you could share that might help us kind of triangulate the, the potential benefits of Perimeter of, of, you know, the significantly above trend Canada wildfire season, you know, for, for a business that, that has kind of been a mid, high single digit business or market for you guys, historically? Thanks.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Thanks for bringing that topic up, Dan. The first thing I'll say is how just remarkably proud I am, and we all are, of what our team has done, up in Canada. Just unbelievably hectic, stressful, yet critical time, and they, they, they delivered with, with, with, with absolute perfection, didn't miss a single load. We sent a bunch of production folks from all over the world, teams from Australia, teams from the U.S., some spent up to two months working in Canada. It's, it's, it's, it's been an incredible exemplary example of what Perimeter Solutions and only Perimeter Solutions can do for our customers. As far as quantifying it for you, so you can, you can look at our last couple of 10-Ks. Canada is roughly 5% of our business from a revenue perspective.

I made a comment in prepared remarks that our national business more than doubled in the first half. Canada was a big part of that, so revenue growth and profit growth in Canada were excellent in the first half. It wasn't, it wasn't only a story of Canada. Chile, Chile was quite strong in the first quarter. Australia was quite strong in the first quarter. We had a lot of good stocking activity in Europe in the second quarter as they stock up a lot more based on how severe last fire season was. There was broad-based strength in international, but Canada was clearly a standout.

That said, like I said, Canada is roughly 5% of our business, and as, as well as it has done this year, it's just not gonna mathematically offset down 70% acres in the US.

Daniel Kutz
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's all really helpful. Appreciate it. Then maybe, just one on capital allocation, and, and I guess specifically M&A. Could you kind of remind us or, or just, you know, high level talk through when you're building the M&A pipeline, what, what the kind of puts and takes are in terms of what you're looking for? Is it, you know, geographic expansion, vertical integration, you know, things that might bolster your core retardant, suppressant and, and also specialty products, businesses? Are you guys kind of indifferent to the end market and, and you're, you know, just looking for, for opportunities to check the, your target economic criteria and, and kind of value drivers. How do you think through, you know, those different, those different puts and takes when you're, when you're building your M&A pipeline? Thanks.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

It is, it is 100% a question of long-term equity value creation. There, there simply are no, there simply are no qualitative M&A criteria. We're not looking to get bigger, we're not looking to get smaller, we're not looking for synergies, we're not looking to tell a story. We're looking for businesses that fit the five target criteria, because if a business fits the five target criteria, we are very confident we can apply the three Ps playbook. As evidenced by our suppressants margins, which have doubled in 18 months, our specialty products margins, where we doubled EBITDA in our 1st year.

If we find the right business consistent with the criteria, therefore, where the three P's playbook is applicable, we can materially increase profitability in a relatively short period of time and do so sustainably, and therefore, create sustainable equity value and, and shareholder value. That's, that's really the one, that's really the one input into the, into the evaluation.

Daniel Kutz
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Understood. Thanks a lot. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press Star and one. As there are no further questions, I will now hand the conference over to Haitham Khouri for closing comments.

Haitham Khouri
CEO, Perimeter Solutions

Thank you very much, everybody, and talk to everybody 90 days from now.

Operator

Thank you. The conference of Perimeter Solutions has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

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