Good morning, and thank you for joining us here on the first day of Needham's twenty-sixth Annual Growth Conference. My name is Quinn Bolton. I'm the semiconductor analyst for Needham and Company. It's my pleasure to host this fireside chat with Pixelworks. The company is a fabless semiconductor supplier that provides industry-leading content creation, video delivery, and display processing solutions that enable highly authentic viewing experiences with superior visual quality across all screens, from cinema to smartphones.
In 2023, the company saw very strong growth in its mobile segment, which offset weakness in the projector or home and entertainment business. We expect the mobile strength to continue in 2024, especially if the company can gain momentum in the international markets. Joining me today from the company are President and CEO, Todd DeBonis, and CFO, Haley Aman. Todd, Haley, thank you for joining us.
Thanks for having us, Quinn.
I wanted to start off at, sort of some big picture or kinda more industry-level questions, and then we'll get into lots of company-specific questions. But at the industry level what kind of trends are you seeing right now playing out in the mobile market and probably mostly specific to China, since that's where a lot of the activity is for you? And what trends do you see over the next couple of years that you're positioning the business to take advantage of?
Mm-hmm. So when I talk about the mobile market, our concentration is first of all specific to the Android market, and then within the Android market, we're very focused on China. We are starting to ship beyond China through our partners. And within that China Android market, we've predominantly been attached and sold solutions at flagship or what I'll call premium solutions, so let's say above $400 or $500 ASP phones. We've been in a few lower-level phones, but predominantly we're in that range of phones, and we're in most of the major tier ones. And anywhere they believe they need to enhance the visual experience, predominantly the mobile gaming experience, it is now...
I think we're at a point, we're at this tipping point where what we call Rendering Acceleration, and what we do is offload the GPU during this visual experience, predominantly gaming, where you can render an immersive game. T here's a big push by the mobile gaming community, so Tencent, NetEase, Activision, a lot of gaming companies that have been successful in console or PC gaming, want to bring that same level of immersive experience to you, in the mobile environment. And in fact, they want it so that if you're playing in this console or PC world, you can literally pick up and move and continue the game from your mobile device. But they...
It's not just continuing to play the game, they want you to see the same types of graphics, and have that immersive ability in a handheld device that usually has to operate under 55 degrees Celsius and about 5 watts of consumption, right? There are certain system requirements in these mobile devices. So to do that, the gaming companies have challenges to modify their games to reach this target. The ODMs have a big challenge, mainly thermal challenges, right? To hit these goals. What we've done is created a way for them, a whole new way of thinking. Don't just put a bigger GPU that's gonna draw more power to what we call brute force rendering. Offload the rendering and do post-processing.
What we do is very unique to mobile, but it is not unique to the total gaming environment. NVIDIA does this in their processors, which they call deep learning super sampling, DLSS. They've now emerged to, I think, 3.5 they're coming out with, and each time they come out with a new version, it's sort of, are they doing just high-resolution scaling, or are they now doing frame interpolation? What are they doing to try to offload their GPU? And they have similar power requirements, but it's a completely different system what I mean?
Right 100-watt type GPU cards, but they still have thermal issues, right? With big fans on them. And so we're just doing a similar type of changing of how you render a game, but in the mobile environment.
And a much, much lower power envelope.
Much lower power envelope.
Staying with sort of the China market and the gaming market are there any sort of broader industry trends you'd want to call out in terms of what are you seeing in terms of overall demand in China? I know that several semiconductor companies have kind of said, "Hey, China's been pretty slow since COVID, and haven't seen a big recovery in China." You're obviously much more tied to a certain segment within the China smartphone handset, but if you're seeing broader trends that you can share, I'm sure investors on the webcast would appreciate it.
So, I mean, my view for those that are broadly exposed, okay we're partners with both Qualcomm and MediaTek. We're formal ISV partners, independent software vendor partners. I think both of them saw an inventory reduction, and they saw a bounce back, and then they saw a softening... and because 2023 was challenging, you will see growth. But in the grand scheme of things, you're seeing a mature market, you're seeing it flatten out. It is not escaping the broader China economic situation. I t is, it is if you talk to people on the street in most of the big cities, it's pretty glum. T hey're buckled down, right? It's what it you'll see the numbers won't say they're in a recession.
If you talk to the people, it feels exactly like it feels in America when you're in a deep recession, okay?
Got it.
People just buckle down, they don't spend money, savings rate goes up. It's a challenge. You have to, and the China government's got to figure out how to release those animal spirits. They have not done it yet. I think their biggest issue is in the property market. There's other issues, but I think their biggest issue is in the property market.
Got it.
So with that, I mean, if you apply that to the mobile market, I don't think you're going to see this disconnected growth when the overall economy of China and the broader world is challenged, okay? So we'll see some growth. I don't think we'll see dramatic growth. But within the bigger segment, and this is why we have had growth, there is a big push by the China ODMs to move... And they've been challenged, they've been trying for years to go in and take market share from Samsung and Apple in the flagship segment, above $500 segment, both premium phones and flagship phones.
If you go look at their market share gains collectively, Huawei did very well pre-sanctions, and once Huawei got sanctioned on a global environment, the rest of the Chinese ODMs have not done a great job, even in their home turf. T hey haven't really been able to get outsized gains. You're starting to see some growth there, okay? I think they are doing well. They bring a lot of value, usually for $200-$300 less ASP, and that's-
Than the international
... starting to catch the attention of people, right?
So, you've kind of touched on my next question, which was your mobile business showed very strong momentum in Q2, Q3. Q4 guidance implies that business is probably up something close to 50% sequentially, 200% year-to-year. So you guys are obviously doing something right and benefiting from some trends within the China market. It sounds like the two things behind that growth may be the Chinese OEMs in general, as you just mentioned, taking share from some of the international OEMs. But also it sounds like just adoption of flagship gaming phones seems like it's really starting to see some pretty good adoption rates within the China domestic market.
I think that's what you're seeing. What you're seeing is, if you go back four or five years we had partners like Black Shark. This was a company that was very specific to mobile gaming. I mean, they put special high-response buttons and fans and all kinds of things to improve the gaming experience. ASUS is another company with the ROG phones. What you're seeing now with, like, OnePlus and iQOO and the Redmi phones from Xiaomi, and the GT series from Honor is... This is not-- I wouldn't call it a gaming phone. What I would call is a phone that still has good camera capabilities. Many cases will have flagship chips when they're available, or one-generation-old flagship chips.
They will put way more memory than probably is in our phones that are sitting on our desk right now, okay? And part of that was memory. Memory costs fell dramatically in 2023, and they took advantage of that by upping the memory. And so if you put a leading-edge AP, you put our kind of rendering acceleration, and you put a lot of memory in a device, and then you focus on the visual aspect, so the display itself, there's a big move to OLED, you can really bring an incredible experience. I mean, they look at day of use. They're very focused on day of use.
What does every one of our consumers that we're targeting? And each model has a sort of different demographic they're targeting. So they, when they come out with a feature set, they're targeting that demographic.
And then they're targeting, "Okay, how do you use your phone?" That demographic. And, "What do you spend most of your time on?" And if you go look at the demographic that all those phones we're entertaining, short-form video, social networking, gaming, mobile gaming, right, are probably half the day of use is spent on these two applications, okay? And so we have focused a lot of our feature functionality of how you improve the experience on half of the day spent for this target audience. And then we figured out how do you work at marketing those advantages through our ODMs in a collaborative way? That is starting to be accepted in the market, and I think you're seeing it through our growth.
Yeah. No, definitely seeing very strong growth, and we'll, we'll get into some of the marketing initiatives you have with IRX and, and your work with game developers. But I guess one of the questions we'll get from investors with that, that pretty healthy growth in mobile that you have seen here in 2023, can you make any comments about where do you see your inventory levels, either at the OEMs or distributors in China? Do you get pretty good POS data from, from channel partners that this stuff is moving through and being consumed at the end customer?
... Yeah. So we're a small company, and we run pretty fiscally tight, I would say. Our terms and conditions, and I think the uniqueness of our solution allows us to have more stringent terms and conditions with the channel and our end customers. And so for the most part, both in home and entertainment, and now mobile, when we transact, we transact NCNR, no inventory return, et cetera. So when we sell a product, whoever buys it, whether it's direct OEM or a distributor, they own it.
Okay.
We're smart enough to know that the distributors, if they over-inventory, they'll still come back and try to say, "Hey, I got a problem," 'cause they run on thin margins. So we manage them, and we manage that POS inventory pretty tight, but we're not exposed. We're just trying to solve a problem, right? And so with that, I'll answer your question. I just want people to understand, we're not like some other companies. They have very good stock rotation privileges, et cetera, and they don't have a good feel of the end markets, and they certainly don't have a good feel of the inventories at the end markets.
They just look at distributor POS, and they manage their business accordingly. Frankly, all these companies are the ones that got caught sideways with the largest inventory corrections, okay? We did not.
We had a very short inventory correction, and it was predominantly with the parts in the end customers' hands. So they got surprised with their demand. And part of that was the behavior in 2021 and 2022 by OEMs, was to buy first, figure out how to sell it later. Because there was this view that everybody in the, in my particular world, everybody was gonna take Huawei's market share. Everybody bought inventory like they were gonna take market share. And guess what? None of them took their market share. Samsung did okay, Apple did okay. Most of the China OEMs didn't take much. That needed to be corrected, right? And they double ordered, and, I mean, it's not—they amplify their, their wants. When we went to the other direction, they amplified that they didn't want, right?
Right.
We are now. We were chasing product since April of 2023. We will leave 2023 with very thin inventory. So even though we're having a record quarter in mobile, our distributors are thin, we have very little inventory.
That sounds like you.
We will normalize in Q1 and Q2 with our inventory.
Got it. Okay. I wanted to kind of move now to kind of some of the visual processors. You introduced, I think it was January 4th, the X7 Gen 2 debut and the OnePlus Ace 3 smartphone. H ow is—I know, I know it's only a couple of weeks, but how do you see adoption of that phone? And, and perhaps more importantly, just talk to us about the specs on the X7 Gen 2 versus the Gen 1, and maybe some of the advantages that it has. I think you've got high efficiency, super resolution as part of the Gen 2. W hat should investors focus on in that newest version of your chip?
So when we focused on the Gen 2, there was a big push to improve performance, but not increase the cost. And then, there's always a big push to lower the power consumption for our functionality, right? And so what we did was a quick turnaround. Gen 2 was a quick turnaround of the architecture we had implemented in Gen 1, where we focused: "Okay, how could we bring the most bang for the buck in a quick fashion?" And we had been working for, let's call it, the follow-on to X7. On a whole new architecture, we're moving to 12-nanometer, low power, et cetera. And in that architecture, there were a lot of functional blocks that are completely new. New MEMC, new scaling, new picture quality functionality, some very cool stuff.
More functionality that's tied to the collaboration with the gaming content producers themselves. We've learned a lot in that cycle. We tried to do a quick turnaround of something to satiate the push we were getting from the customers of: "Give me more performance, but don't give me more cost.
Right.
'Cause they knew this new innovative solution we're bringing out, they knew that was gonna be more cost. So what we did is we took one of the real fundamental blocks we were working on for the future. We were developing our own neural network processor to run an AI-based super-resolution scaling. And we did an initial version of it that was very small, one millimeter squared. We'd gone through a big, rigorous investigation on third-party IP there. And for our specific application, we came to the conclusion we should just develop our own neural network that's focused on what we do, versus a general purpose neural processor that we licensed from somebody.
We looked around, we weren't against licensing, but we just didn't find anything that was gonna meet our needs, to tell you the truth. So we designed our own. This will be, the X7 Gen 2 is our first generation of that. It's a 3.5 TOPS per watt, very low power solution that we run AI super resolution. Some of the customers that we're targeting had tried to come out with super resolution scaling, using compute power from the APs, whether it be MediaTek or Qualcomm. Believe it or not, even those devices are at leading-edge process nodes, 4 or 5 nanometer.
The super resolution algorithms that they're putting on the general purpose compute take up way more power than when we design a very specific neural network that's only 1 millimeter squared, and we put it in a 22 nanometer device. So our quality is better, and it's at half the power some of those software algorithms were running on these very powerful APs. So we integrated that, is the main thing we integrated. We also got rid of a lot of things. W e try to develop a chip that has a lot of input, and sometimes it has more interfaces and more capabilities than every single customer wants. Well, each one comes with a cost, and each one gets carried when we sell it. Not all customers want it.
So we eliminated some of that, and we marketed and positioned that, if you want all those features, continue to buy Gen 1. If you don't want all those features, buy Gen 2, but you get this new functionality. Now, that new functionality is red hot, so we're seeing a lot of customers just migrate to the new functionality. We're still seeing there are some things in Gen 1 that just Gen 2 does not do, and if those are important to the customer, they may continue to use Gen 1.
Right.
Okay? But-
Yeah.
Here's another one: We still have customers coming back at X5 and starting new designs because it is a 30% lower ASP than either X7 Gen 1 or Gen 2, 'cause they're about the same price. Our next follow-on device, we have indicated to everybody, including the investors, that the ASPs are going higher, much higher, right? There are new customers that are targeting a lower ASP, a broader demographic, and they just don't wanna bear the price of either X7 Gen 1, Gen 2, or our newest device, and so we're getting a big push for them. Not only do we come in and sort of rejuvenate X5, do we come out with a new version that meets that kind of price-performance level.
Got it. That sounds almost like they're asking for a good, better, best for the X5, X7, and then next gen.
Yeah, you get all kinds of messages. So you got, you got sift through the messages, right? If you just listened, you would probably just do good enough.
Okay.
Okay?
Yeah.
The customers or my customer base, our customer base, are very good at just telling you, "Good enough, cheap." And then we have a little bit of that, "Well, we think we know what you're going to need. We know you're not telling us you need it, but we think you..." And we're gonna make big investments in that category, even though you're really guiding us not to do it. And so far, we've done that a couple of times, and when we come out with the device, broad adoption. So, you got be careful what you hear.
Got it. Got it. So you've got Gen 2, you've got next generation coming out. How do you see the impact on gross margins from those newer chips and the new generation, I think, I hope I've got my notes right, you previously said you're on track to sample that new gen sometime Q2 of this year. Is that still the right timeframe for the new gen chip?
So, the chip taped out over the holidays.
Okay.
Which was-
Congratulations.
Thank you. I don't think we've had a chip that doesn't have some form of drama. We've had a lot of chips with first-run silicon, right? We've never we don't do many, many respins. The particular drama in this one is we used a back-end vendor, 'cause we, we outsourced all our layout and back-end, just because we don't do enough chips, and we're doing to a year maybe, right? To carry a full team inside, and all the tools, they're very leading-edge tools, and you have to upgrade them all the time. So we use an outsource, and the outsource vendor was acquired over the holidays, while we were taping out-
Oh!
... by the See, when you use outsource vendors, they usually use best-in-breed tools. Use a little Synopsys, a little Cadence, a little Mentor, you name it. Well, when one of those top companies buys somebody, the other companies don't wanna sell to them anymore. And that's what happened. That was the drama. So even with that drama, we taped out, and we're pretty sure we delayed our tape, like, 2 weeks 'cause we wanted to improve a last-minute couple of things there. We're pretty confident it's going to go to market for silicon, right? So we will see, but with that happening, we'll be sampling customers in May.
Perfect. Perfect, and, and margin-
We've pre-sold this device. There's customers that have already bought in. They have already targeted models. Because of our history of first silicon success, they will make plans around it, and so what that means is you also see a bunch of risk wafer starts in production for it.
Okay. Sorry, just lastly, the gross margin impact on X2 and the new gen, are these margin accretive?
Absolutely. So, we lowered the cost of Gen 2 over X7, I'd say 20%. We sell it at the same ASPs as Gen 1. Bringing in new feature and functionality that has very good performance on it, so bringing in that AI block and then having it work the way we said it did, allowed us to price it consistent with X7 Gen 1, even though the cost was much lower. So pretty much all those cost savings we didn't pass on. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. Depends on the value proposition you're bringing customers. In Gen 2's case, we did not. And then, as you move to our newest generation device, that'll be the back half of 2024, the ASP goes up dramatically, and because it is so innovative-...
We've been pretty resistant to dropping pricing at this stage in the game too much, and so what you will see is even a further margin improvement on that device. Now, with that said, we will see some customers that probably say: "Okay, certain models I need best-in-breed, I'll go with your newest device at their highest ASPs. Certain models, I'll go with X7 Gen 2," and they yet even further models, "I like your low-end strategy if you're gonna stay committed to it." We are starting to see people that wanna put this rendering acceleration functionality in lower ASPs, higher volume devices, as a check mark.
So I think we've reached that point where there's in China, for sure, there is an acceptance of what we do, of this rendering acceleration, that they wanna go put it as a check mark in lower-end devices, but they just don't wanna pay the price.
Right.
So-
Got it.
We may indulge them.
Can you spend a couple minutes talking about your work with the game developers? You've mentioned two game developers, Perfect World and NetEase, have integrated your SDK into some of their games. Yeah, what are the advantages when the game developers do that?
So there's two things. We do tuning of games, right? And actually the gaming experience. And how you tune it is we can tune with the OEM when they integrate our solution, so that the hardware works well with games that have either been optimized to our feature set or non-optimized. So we have over between 30 and 40 games that we have tuned. We support 100 games, okay? Not all of them are tuned, right, either from the hardware standpoint or a combination of the gaming and hardware standpoint. Many of the announcements you've seen, like NetEase and Perfect World, and you will see some announcements come shortly with new vendors. I mean, we had one in China only that we... We were somewhat prevented from marketing it in North America, which was Call of Duty: Mobile.
Okay, this is a franchise owned by Activision. Tencent licenses that for China. So we had announcements in China that we collaborated with Tencent to Call of Duty: Mobile is been optimized for our visual processor for China. It was all local language; we adhered to it, but I can talk about it on an investor conference. So we're starting to see some really tier-one studios migrate to our experience. Their biggest job is like, "Well, how many phones are you in?" And we tell them. And so there is the models recently that we've announced that are IRX certified. There's 6 or so that have been announced in the last 5 months. But if you really look at IRX capable, and IRX means Image Rendering Accelerator.
We don't talk a lot about it, we just copyrighted IRX, and we're backing that, we're putting a lot of energy into that labeling of the experience. But you go back to X5, most of the phones that have included X5, and then X7 Gen 1, X7 Gen 2, and then our newest device by the end of 2024, we'll have cumulative devices of over 30 million IRX-certified devices that are really out there. Now, not all of them were announced as IRX certified, but they're capable of taking advantage of some of this tuning capability that we do with the game manufacturers.
Got it.
And so now we're starting to hit a set of numbers that the studios are like, they're starting to pay attention, right?
And as the install base grows, they have more incentive to tune the games to that installed base, so sort of sounds a little bit like a flywheel.
So let me give you an idea. One of the hottest games that was out over the last two years is from a studio in China called miHoYo, and it's called Genshin Impact, and probably most of this audience here has no idea what I'm talking about. But if you have kids, just ask them, okay? My kids, I have a daughter, 21, in college, it's not her favorite game anymore, but for a year, this is all she played, okay? It's sort of an anime cool story game. miHoYo, it's a very good story, but they put a lot of energy into the immersive graphics, and when they did that, it was the most challenging game for all these hardware vendors to render naturally, natively, at high resolution and high frame rate.
In fact, most people that don't use our solution, if they can run 1 hour at 60 frames per second at full resolution, which is only 1080p in that game, they consider that a success, okay? We take the game, we allow them to render it at 30 frames per second at lower resolution. We put it all the way to 120 frames per second at full resolution of the screen, whether it's a 1.5K screen with Gen 2 or a 2K screen with Gen 1, and we save 1.2 watts of system power while doing it, okay? So it's almost too good to be true. It's a 20% power savings, and you hit frame rates that you can't hit natively, period. It hits the thermal limiter. It just doesn't have the capability to do it.
They came out with a new game, a follow-on to Genshin Impact, they called Star Rail. They did not optimize it for a phone, 'cause they come out with games—many of these guys are coming out with games for the console, or TV, or PC, and mobile at the same time. And so they focus a lot on the immersive capabilities in the big hardware arena, and then they don't optimize them for mobile right away. Over time, they optimize them. Well, that particular game came out, they can only run it at 30 frames per second, low resolution, without the phone seizing up, okay? So there's a bit the more and more you see these studios coming into this domain, they are challenged by the system power performance requirements.
And so what they're now seeing, in that particular case, you're seeing, like, miHoYo go: "Well, what do you do? We may have to use your solution just to come out with this game," right? So it's no longer. I think you're gonna reach a point, it may not be optional to do what we do.
I wanna-
Depends on the studios, what they wanna do, right? Do they wanna dumb down the game so that it can be used on all these phones that are out there, or do they want to push the hardware vendors to give them mobile devices that achieve their goal of immersive experiences on a phone?
Got it. Wanted to spend a couple of minutes on the projector business or home and entertainment. Well this business has been affected by the inventory build-up, that's affected a lot of the semiconductor industry. Can you just give us your latest thoughts on where you think we are in that inventory correction process, and when do you think supply-demand kinda comes back into balance?
Yeah, if you'd asked me 4 or 5 months ago, I'd have said by mid-2024 we will be corrected, and then it would be a slow grind of increased volumes, as market demand improved. The number one market for projectors has for within the projector segment, okay, it's a broad segment. There's projectors out in the world that I call toys that are $100. They use old LCD display technology from phones, and then they shine a light through with some reflectors, and it's a very cheap light source, right? And picture quality, right? Those are toys. But there's a whole segment of consumer devices between $300-$500 that the DLP market has done a pretty good job of trying to address.
Our partners, we're the number one market share leader by a long shot in SoCs and solutions for 3LCD. The 3LCD is a much brighter light source, it's a very high quality, and it's for larger venues. That market predominantly has been used in the education markets, okay, that's that technology, and high-quality business or large format like auditoriums and things of this nature, right? With our newest device, we'll solidify our leadership. We'll go from high 80s to mid-90s market share in that space. But that space is tiny those people that have invented 3LCD. So Epson, our largest customer, is vertically integrated. They do all their own 3LCD panels, okay?
They use us as the SoC solution provider, and then they have innovative and patented light engines, okay? Similar with the—all the other customers use Sony 3LCD panels, okay? Whether it be Sony, Panasonic, NEC, et cetera, all of our other customers, Epson in China. The 3LCD market's trying to migrate their technology to 4K low cost and retain all their advantages, and try to get back in the consumer market. The consumer market has shown resilience, right? People, as much as large panel TVs have come down dramatically in cost, the one thing they will never do, they will always be like a 60-inch large panel that can break easily. So if you're somewhat migratory, would you rather have—I mean, I'm talking about people like my, my daughter and going to college.
I have given her an Epson projector that's about this big, with speakers built into it, and a full smart TV capability that shines on the wall, versus this giant panel that's unwieldy. I f she moves apartment, she takes the thing with her very easily, packs in a suitcase. That thing has done very well. That market segment has done very well in the emerging markets, right, and China. Where we've traditionally been targeted, which is education and business, it's really tied to macroeconomics. And China's the number two market behind North America, and then Europe is the number three market. And Europe is challenged, and China is very challenged.
So I don't think we're gonna see a complete inventory correction until those markets, till the demand profile comes back, and that'll be a macroeconomic thing. So I think it's...
Right, you want my opinion, I think it's gonna take through 2024 for us to be fully inventory corrected. T hey're also migrating to new technology, and that slows down it can depends how fast they migrate. If somebody, like in the phone business, they migrate fast, you need to convert fast. In the projector business, our largest customer has 150 models. When we bring out a new chip, they'll come out with one or two larger volume models, and over three to four years, migrate their 150 models to new devices. It takes a long time, right? So with that said, I just—I think you're gonna see a challenging inventory correction.
I think we'll see flat, at best—maybe, maybe slight growth in 2024, but then I don't expect the macroeconomic situation to stay down forever. And when it rebounds, I expect that business to rebound with it.
... but it sounds like more like a 2025 event, so.
I would say so.
I-
I would say if you're modeling it, Quinn, model it in 2025.
Got it. Got it. I wanna spend maybe just the last minute or two of the session talking about you guys put out a new investor deck, in which you talked about 30% revenue growth for 2024. What are the biggest growth drivers there, and how confident you talked about the opportunity to hit breakeven in a quarter this year. W hat kind of revenue level do you need to reach quarterly breakeven?
It depends on the mix. We put that in our presentation, but, our largest growth driver in 2024, and then continued after that, most people are gonna say, "Well, it's mobile." No, it's TrueCut. Because TrueCut's coming from a very small base, okay? You will see dramatic growth, and this growth is licensing revenue, okay?
Okay.
It's a combination of licensing revenue and content production revenue. Content production revenue is not as high margin. W e spend a lot of... It's a service we provide to... You're gonna see a bunch of announcements over the next two months. New movies, new for theatrical release, studios that are gonna support it with a certain select content that really shows well on their streaming service. And then that streaming service will be targeting new home entertainment devices that really illustrate the capabilities of cinematic high frame rate. You're gonna see all these announcements come out, and as that business grows, that will be the biggest single driver on our profitability, because it's a licensing business. So, mobile will continue to grow. We've talked about that growth.
And then projector, even at a flat business, it's a cash cow business for us, right? The way we've structured it. So I think we're in a good position this year. It depends on the mix between TrueCut and mobile for that profitability, but we've given a range, and I would say anywhere between a low end of $22-$23 million, depending if it's strong TrueCut mix, to $26 million, is sort of where we're structured to breakeven. And then when do we hit that on a sustainable and an accelerated basis? Like, when do we go past it in such a dramatic fashion that I don't get asked about profitability anymore, I only get asked about growth and improved profitability? That's probably 2025.
'25.
Right?
All right. Well, we are at the end of the set time, Todd DeBonis, thank you so much for joining us at the Needham Growth Conference. Really appreciate it, and look forward to chatting with you guys after earnings.
Thank you so much, Quinn. It's been a joy.
Thanks, everyone.