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Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2024

Mar 4, 2024

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

All right, welcome everybody. Hopefully, you guys all grabbed a bite to eat, and we're gonna get started here with CEO and President of PayPal, Alex Chriss. As a matter of introduction, before we get started with Alex, I'm James Faucette, Senior Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley, covering Fintech. And before we actually launch into our Q&A, I do have an important disclosure, which is, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. So Alex, congrats on your new role as CEO of PayPal. I guess as an opening question and open-ended question, I'll set the stages. I often tell investors that PayPal, in your seat, is the most complicated seat in all of Fintech, right?

The reason I say that is because there is no other company that I cover that has the number of direct consumer relationships, the number of direct merchant relationships that go with that, and the web of other relationships on the back end that you have to manage. So congratulations-

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Thank you

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

... on stepping into that. And tell us, like, maybe give a little background on your prior roles and anything that you feel like has helped you become equipped to deal with that complexity.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Sure. Well, thank you for having me, and it's great to be here today. You know, the last really 19 years of my career has been focused on serving small businesses and consumers with Intuit. And prior to that, I was an entrepreneur myself, building small businesses, and so I deeply understood what that felt like, and what the needs of small businesses were. And then the last 19 years, I've had a variety of roles at Intuit, including building their platform, breaking into the combination of small business and consumer with our self-employed products, being the Chief Product Officer for 3+ years, and then being the GM of the Small Business and Self-Employed Group , which also included building consumer and small business ecosystems.

So I feel like really the last 19 years has been focused on that intersection of consumers, businesses, around the world and how it all plays together. So, certainly, when the board pitched me on this role, they didn't say, "This is the most complicated space in finance." But I actually-

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

They were trying to sell you on the spot, right?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

That's right. But you know what? It is really fun. And I will say just even as I was doing my own due diligence, thinking about the role, I could not think of really a more exciting place to be at this nexus of commerce, where, again, around the world, with the assets that we have, 400 million consumers, 30+ million merchants, all figuring out what to do in this world going forward, it's just a blessing to be here.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So you've had a few months now on the job as CEO. Can you tell us your thoughts and surprises? Like, what have your key observations been? And most importantly, at least from my perspective, what has surprised you, and how has that helped form your top one to two challenges or to-dos for this year?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So it is, it's been a little over four months now. What's been delightful has been getting to know the team. I've traveled around, traveled around the world and met with a number of our teams and a number of our customers. Everywhere I go, I meet with our customers, with consumers and merchants, and the energy and the passion of our teams has been phenomenal. The passion of our merchants has surprised me. It's been really exciting. Everyone is rooting for PayPal. The number of customers I've talked to have said, "I would not be in business if it weren't for PayPal," has been wonderful. In all transparency, the other things that have surprised me are some of the things that I think we need to work on.

So really nailing a crystal clear value proposition for the organization. From the consumer standpoint, why choose PayPal? From a merchant standpoint, why continue to use PayPal? Really nailing a focus for the organization. The team was doing a lot of different things. I think there was an opportunity for us to continue to focus, and then ensuring that we're focused on profitable growth. And I think those were surprises that it wasn't clear to me when I came, that those were the areas that we had strength in, and I think it's an opportunity for us.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So on that point is, like, particularly on the merchant side, I mean, I'll tell you is that, you know, we. And I'm sure you've heard this from investors and from others, there's always this perception of like, Oh, PayPal is here, PayPal is there. But one of the things that when we look at the top 500 e-commerce merchants in the U.S., every quarter, which we do, it's like PayPal's low level of churn has been, like, you just don't lose merchants, and the merchants you do, you lose at a much lower rate than other checkout wallets. But within that, there's clearly an opportunity on top of what you mentioned before. But, you know, as you got started, is you've already been making organizational changes, and you've been doing that pretty, pretty consistently already.

What would you highlight to investors as kind of the key changes that you feel like have been made for the better, organizationally and focus-wise? You mentioned that there was a lot of things that maybe people were looking at, but what should we be paying attention to from an investment community standpoint?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah... Look, I know everyone is, is always impatient. I am impatient as well. Four months in, I think we actually have made a tremendous amount of change. I think about it in three different buckets. First, the team. I have changed over the vast majority of my leadership team, and then even if you look a level below, we've made significant changes to the leadership team. Bringing in people that are product-oriented, that are operators, and that understand how to build go-to-market motions around the world. So number 1, team is significantly different now. I think that's a big change for us. Number 2, focus and strategy. We've been doing a lot as an organization. I noticed when I first came in that we were spread very thin, particularly from a product perspective.

I'll tell you a story. I started September 27th. That was a board meeting week. The week after, I gathered all of our product leaders in Austin for a product review. We sat down, it was a 3-day review. 4 hours in, I stopped the meeting because we were reviewing 300 different items. I said, "Not all of these are created equal. It's time for us to focus." We spent the next 2 days identifying what was the most critical areas, things that I know we'll talk about today, but you all have seen me talk about at earnings, and really ended up being our First Look innovations, really a maniacal focus on branded checkout, accelerating the value proposition on unbranded, investing in Venmo, and then really focusing on a platform.

Those narrow items were things that were going to take 2-3 years on the current roadmap. We delivered them in 60 days. So that allowed us to increase velocity and allowed us to really allow the team to understand what we were capable of. So team, focus, and then lastly, a real change in our operating mechanisms. We've gone top to bottom in the organization and changed the way that we are operating the business, the way we're doing product reviews, the way we're doing financial reviews. We changed the way that we're organized. Now organized around business units, consumer, small business, and enterprise. Now allows us to really focus the energy of the organization and ensure that we are delivering for the most important areas for growth. So pretty significant change in 4 months. The results will now take time.

We will get better every single day, but that's, that's the goal right now.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So, you know, when I look at PayPal and kind of priority in terms of, especially as you characterized it, driving profitable growth, and as you said, it was easy to have hundreds and hundreds of different projects or initiatives. But to me, one of the key things is improving the branded checkout experience and reducing friction, right? Like, I think about the example I always give is that, you know, I'll pose the question to somebody who doesn't understand the PayPal value prop. And I say: Okay, how do you check out when you're at a convenience store, at the grocery store? Do you swipe, dip, or tap? And everybody says, "Oh, I tap." And I'm like: Well, why is that?

Like, the savings aren't that much on any given transaction, but just that small reduction in friction drives a lot of behavior change, right? And it compounds the more transactions you have. And so when I look at, at that same, that same, you know, view applied to PayPal checkout, like reducing that friction is an important part of that priority. What are the steps that PayPal is taking now, and what are the next to-dos that the branded experience we can expect for the branded experience to help reduce that friction at checkout?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah, it's a really essential and important part of our business, and it is the number one priority for us. So let's go back, and think about how PayPal was created, and even to your previous comment around, you know, merchants are not attriting in the ones that you've talked to from branded, because for a real reason, right? The majority of checkout still goes through a guest checkout experience. That is an experience that is fraught with friction and errors and abandoned carts. And if you're a merchant and you're trying to drive conversion rate, you want the most frictionless experience. PayPal created that option. You click a button, and all of a sudden, you now have a vaulted instrument, customer information that's consistent, automatically plugged in, you check out, and you go.

A decade ago, we were the only button there. That's why merchants came on. Today, you fast-forward to today, now there's lots of choices. And so from a branded checkout experience, we still have the number one ubiquity. We are still the one that's driving great conversion. But in all transparency, I think there are certain elements in which we have lost our advantage in frictionless. And I'll give you an example. I think mobile, mobile checkout, we over the last few years have lost the high ground in terms of being able to have the most seamless experience. That's something that you saw us roll out with First Look, which is reduced attrition and getting to parity or better when it comes to a seamless experience. So that's table stakes in my mind. It has to be frictionless.

Step two is now we have to create a differentiated value proposition. For us, that we know we're already going to be great when it comes to privacy and security. People already understand that from a brand perspective. We have to now have better value proposition, which we're focused on with rewards. It's why you saw us roll out our Advanced Offers Platform , enabling our merchants to actually leverage our targeted consumer data to be able to find the right consumer at the right time and actually pay for that conversion. That puts more money in the pocket of our consumers, it gives them a reason to choose PayPal for every single purchase, and it creates the flywheel of merchants getting better checkout experience. Then the third one is our ability to be ubiquitous.

We already are online, but for my vision, I wanna make sure that PayPal is available and is the choice for every purchase, everywhere, every time. That means it has to be available online and offline, and we need to be available every time someone wants to make a purchase.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I wanna ask a couple of follow-up questions tied together there, and that is, like, rewards programs, like what we've seen globally, is that rewards are the most effective in terms of driving consumer behavior change or reinforcing behavior. You can look at markets around the world, just even on basic debit and credit. If you don't have rewards associated with that, the take-up is slow, and the change in behavior is slow. Whereas if you do have rewards, it can be quite, not only rapid, but it tends to be consistent and compound over time. But when I look at rewards and I also look at like offline checkout, where the economics are different, how are you thinking about managing that back to your point on profitability?

Lots of times what we see on rewards is that there has to be some priming that has to be done to convince merchants to help fund those. Or if we look at the profitability and economics of in-person, it's great for habituation and building that like brand, but the economics are a lot narrower, and so it tends to be require high investment without a lot of direct return. So how are you thinking about balancing those issues with... And do you have a different formula that you think works? And how should we think about that's impact on profitability?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So to reinforce what you said, rewards is a proven model, but rewards today I think are very generic. There's an element of, you know, a point or 2 points cashback for just a general purchase. I think that's good table stakes, that's a good way to get started, but the vision that we have for rewards is getting much more focused and hyper-targeted, and leveraging the scale that we have and the data that we have. And so play this out, and this is why we're talking a lot about building a profile and then leveraging AI to be able to deliver specific rewards. When we're talking about this, what we're talking about is actually disrupting really the ad model for merchants.

So today, if you're a merchant, and we've tested this with our enterprise merchants all the way down to small businesses, if you're a merchant and you wanna go out and try to fill the top of the funnel and drive more consumer adoption, you can put more money into a search engine, you can put more money out into the ether and hope to drive consumers into the funnel and hope that that converts. What we're doing is the value proposition we're driving to merchants is saying, "No, we have built a profile of a consumer, because we see their purchases across platforms, across devices, and we're able to actually build a profile of what they've actually purchased." So we know this person buys size large, they like the color blue, and their shoe size is 11. Okay?

If you tell us who you actually wanna convert, we can leverage the merchant profiles that we have, we can leverage all the eyeballs that we have coming into our app, into our receipts, into all the different ecosystems that we play in, and allow you to target that user. And you only pay for the reward if they actually check out. So we're changing the ad paradigm from a top-of-funnel, I hope that this converts, to an ROI that is actually specific to actual checkout. And so far, the conversations have been fantastic. It's early days, and we're gonna have to build this over time, but we feel like this is back to the margin question.

This is something that is funded by merchants, and actually is delivering both merchant ROI, because they're getting the specific customer that they want, and consumer ROI, because they're getting the reward for making the purchase.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So I think probably one of the most challenging questions that we have to answer for investors, et cetera, is that kind of pitch conceptually, has been around for 20 years. And one of the big hurdles, particularly within the payments ecosystem, has been getting merchant buy-in because of the concerns around, ultimately, like if you just use a basic example of like in part of building that profile that you're gonna take to Lowe's, you're probably relying on purchases that came from Home Depot, if you're building my profile, right? And for Home Depot and for Lowe's, that becomes uncomfortable. And so what do you think is different, today versus over the last 20 years? Or what are the differences that PayPal can bring in that conversation, do you feel like...

I know it's early days, but what are your intuitions as to what those differences can be now versus maybe what has been presented to them over the years from other players?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah, for me, it's about building a consumer profile.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

It's not about building. It's not about selling SKU-specific information. I think that's been the mistake in the past, is being able to say, "Hey, this is the specific hammer that you bought at Home Depot. You know, go-

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

These are the nails that work best with that hammer, whatever.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. I, I think, you know, what we're doing is building a consumer profile, and again, because we are ubiquitous, because we're cross-platform, we see purchases across everything, and we're giving our consumers the ability to actually manage their profile. And so now they get to actually opt in and out, "Hey, this is what I want to build my profile. I actually want more targeted ads. I want more targeted rewards." And we can leverage, again, our AI profiles to be able to do that. So, you know, look, I think the, the concept, to your point, has been around for a while. At the scale that we're at, you know, with $1.5 trillion of commerce coming through our platform, we're seeing a significant amount of purchases and access to consumers.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. So I wanna go back to the branded market share and competitive landscape. To your point is there's lots of buttons around, for better or worse, I think, especially in the investment community, there's some people underappreciate some buttons and attribute too much strength or presence to others just based on personal experience. But it certainly has been a key topic for investors, and there's certainly development there. How are you thinking about PayPal's competitive positioning and market retention, especially when we compare it to the likes of Apple Pay? And maybe we'll dovetail that in with kind of the question around what you expect to have happen.

We have this mandate in the EU with Apple Pay and what they've got to make available and how PayPal can take advantage of that, et cetera.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So, as we talked about before, and I'll say it again, our branded experience is, our branded checkout is healthy, it's growing, but I think there are opportunities for us. So one, we have to nail the experience. It's what we talked about earlier. We have to make sure that our experience is at par or better than anyone else out there. Two, we have to make sure that it is ubiquitous, which means it's available online and offline. And I think there are more opportunities opening up for it to be offline, and nothing is stopping us right now from making sure that PayPal is available for every purchase, everywhere, every time, both in an online experience and offline.

The third, which I think is an interesting one that is something we're investing in, is actually going after what I would consider to be non-consumption of the branded experience. So 60% of purchases are still done through a guest checkout experience.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Okay, so that's someone still going in and entering their name, their address, and their credit card information. This is why Fastlane was such an important innovation for us that we rolled out at first look. So as a reminder, this is something that we're now giving to our merchants, both large enterprises all the way down to our small businesses, that allow them to have a guest checkout experience, where as soon as you, as the consumer, enter in your email address, we can identify 70% of those consumers coming in because they've used PayPal in the past. We auto-fill in their name, their address, and their credit card information. That's driving a conversion rate experience as high as 80% with our merchants. That is dramatically higher, 40% higher than any other guest checkout that's out there. So that is huge for our merchants.

What that does from a branded perspective, though, is that now allows us to follow up with that customer and say, "Hey, thank you for purchasing and doing the guest checkout through Fastlane. Did you know that if you'd actually used PayPal, you could have saved 2%, or you could have gotten this reward?" So the network effect starts to build, and it gives us, I think, a competitive advantage in being able to drive branded checkout and growth over time.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So, on Fastlane, for example, how dependent is that experience on a merchant using Braintree as their back end? And you know, I guess maybe I'll just start there, and how do we think about the things that you can do with PayPal specific versus the leverage that you get between when a merchant has Braintree at the back end versus and you get the combination of that with a consumer using PayPal on the front end?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Look, we always want to be the place that our merchants can come to, to be the one-stop shop for branded and unbranded.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

So whether it's Braintree or PPCP, there is a huge advantage to our merchants to be able to have one place for them to be able to have branded experiences as well as unbranded. Fastlane now takes that to the next level, where they have the best-in-class branded experience and the best-in-class guest checkout experience. And again, I think it is a competitive differentiator for us.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

But for that Fastlane to work, is it necessary right now that they be a Braintree customer or not?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Braintree or PPCP, today it is.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Over time, we'll think about if we want to separate it out, but for us, we know we get better economics when we do that, for we want that to be part of the most recent merchant integration-

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Right. Right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

... and make sure that they're using our checkout.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

When we think about Braintree, obviously, that's been growing much faster than PayPal's other products and growing at a multiple of e-commerce growth, so by definition, taking share. You've talked about improving the transaction margin profile there, with more SMB focus and incremental services. Where are we in, you know, I guess we're trying to figure out, like, is there an opportunity to take price or what's the path to margin expansion there? Because certainly it looks as if the Braintree growth has been at least dilutive to the overall margin percentage profile of the company.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So if I go back and think about the strategy for Braintree and unbranded over the last few years, it has been a focus on establishing what I would consider to be a beachhead. Right? This is a product that was in a highly competitive space, that needed incremental product development work in order to win in the market, and really priced aggressively in order to gain customers over the last few years.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

When I think about where we are today, I believe we've got the best product in the market. I believe with innovations like Fastlane, we've now leapfrogged the competition and proven ourselves at scale. And so now a combination of being able to price to value based on the quality of the product and expanding into small business and international, I think gives us lots of opportunity for margin expansion. And I expect Braintree and PPCP to be nice, profitable growth drivers for us.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So as you look to do that and see that profitable component improve, how should we think about that relative to the growth rates that have been established? I mean, can we sustain these growth rates while improving profitability, or do we think there should be some moderation? Like, what's that trade-off in your mind in the near term, and then what does it ultimately look like in your medium to long-term planning?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. My focus is on profitable revenue growth.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

And so, you know, the variability of gross revenue is gonna go up and down based on new customers coming in, the growth rate of some of those. Some of these are very large customers coming in.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Yep.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

That will be variable. My focus right now is on profitable revenue growth and then margin expansion.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Got it. And then I want to go on to some other areas, but first I want to finish up on this capability you highlighted at your first look product day, some of the accelerated improvements in development that you were able to bring in. And we saw a lot of those initiatives revolving around branded checkout, including Fastlane. We've talked about here this afternoon, but you've also talked about launching new marketing promotional tools that we've alluded to, Smart Receipts , a handful of other things. How would you rank where the prioritization of those, and what's the timeline that we should be keeping in mind as it relates to progress and milestones or demonstrable improvement in each of those capabilities?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So we've talked about most of the innovations.

The things that I'd want you to think about are the focus areas, branded checkout, unbranded, differentiator, and continuing to grow profitable growth through unbranded and Venmo.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, right, right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Differentiator.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

So those are the three areas. The underneath, if you really look at the innovations, this changes our value proposition in the market. So if you think about it from the consumer standpoint and the branded standpoint, we're now playing in the entire life cycle, from access to consumers, filling the top of the funnel with the ad platform, through to checkout, through to post-purchase with our receipts, and then driving habituation across. So that is a very different place for PayPal to be playing today than we've been playing in the past-

... where we've just been focused on that checkout experience. In the unbranded, we're now focused on not just processing, but then also driving guest checkout through Fastlane, and then driving that back to branded as well. So I just would think about the framing of these innovations in a very different way.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So Venmo, you, we've gone most of this without really even touching on Venmo, but you mentioned it just now, and it's certainly a great asset with a lot of active young consumers. In our own survey work that we've done, Venmo has to be one of the most penetrated fintech brands that there is, particularly in consumers in that under 27, 28 or in the Gen Z demographic. You know, and you've been rolling out that as a payment method to more websites. Where does Venmo acceptance expansion fall on your list of priorities, and how much more expansion can we drive this year? And I'm just wondering, like, what is the... You know, acceptance seems to be key, but what is the real path to monetizing that customer base?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. Venmo is a tremendous asset. It is, you know, from an active use perspective, very, very strong, and in a demographic that is highly valuable.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

I also think we have not done a very good job of monetizing this product. And really, when I think about monetizing it, I think customer back and ensuring that we're looking at the needs of the customer and then thinking about: How do we drive additional use cases that can also drive monetization? I want to use my son, who I shipped off to college in September, as an example. Venmo is the way that he communicates with his customer, with his colleagues and his friends right now, right? They go out to dinner, they use Venmo. They're going off to a volleyball tournament, they're using Venmo. But we have huge opportunity. He does not want a separate bank account. I send him money through Venmo, it's now sitting there.

We have to make sure that he has more opportunities to be able to pay. That means including a debit card, including a credit card, giving him opportunities, including routing information, so that he can pay the rent for his apartment, getting the ability for him to be able to not just have money come in, but also move out in the right way. The second is ensuring that it's available both online and offline. It makes no sense that when he sits around with his six friends and they each send him $10 for the pizza, that he then has to pay for that pizza using something else. That makes absolutely no sense to me. And so it has to be available for him to be able to complete his purchases in every single situation.

And then third, from a monetization perspective, he's out there getting a haircut and ensuring that he's using Venmo to be able to pay service-based businesses, which are 70% of the businesses out there. But right now, there's no way for that barber to be able to communicate back to him or get access to his friend network. There is now with our Business Profiles that we've rolled out. Again, very early days, but our ability to tap into service-based businesses and allow those businesses to, in a hyperlocal way, communicate with their customers and take these payments. Think about how they provide incentives and offers for them to get money back or get access to their customer base in a very social element, which is what made Venmo great, I think are three very clear monetization opportunities for us.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So I want to talk about transaction margin dollar growth, and that's been a key metric that investors have been focused on for a few years now. And there are a lot of factors that go into that KPI. But what are the key to-dos from your perspective to improve on the flat growth you've guided for that line for 2024? And even if it's not this year or for next year, like, what are the key things that we need to be watching to see that return to growth?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. Let me talk about two things. One, let me talk about the guide. I've been in the seat four months. Most of my leadership team has been in less, so it was prudent for us as we get to our first guide of the year, to be very thoughtful, to give ourselves the flexibility that we need to be able to execute on the business that we have going forward. That's just a smart way for us to think about it. I want myself and our team to put points on the board before we get over ourselves in terms of a guide. So that's how we thought about it, and we were transparent on the last-

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

earnings call around that. In terms of transaction margin dollar growth, this is really important, and I think, perhaps this is misunderstood. So let me break it down into three different components. The first is branded. Bless you.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

The first is branded. So branded, from a volume perspective, continues to grow, and grow, in a healthy way. Transaction margin dollars for branded are growing, and growing well. I think there is more room for us to continue to expand based on all the innovation we talked about earlier. But branded continues to grow and is, and is doing well for us. Unbranded, when I think about that, we are growing gross revenue well, and as we talked about, I think we have an opportunity to price to value and continue to grow our profitable transaction margin dollar growth on unbranded, and that's gonna be a key focus for us this year.

As we continue to roll out Fastlane, our upgraded experiences, and continue to understand what we already know with our innovation that monetizes better, and then we price to value in these conversations, we should continue to see profitable growth there. Then we have another component of really other products and services that we have that are a drag to the business. These are a combination of acquisitions that we've done over the course of the year, products that have been defocused and were, you know, in many ways orphaned throughout the organization, that we're now looking at top to bottom as a leadership team and understanding, are they core to the business? Are they places that we should invest in? Are they areas that we should divest because they're just not core anymore and they're boat anchors to the business?

And we will, we will address those over the course of the year. So in 2024, that other will be reduced compared to 2023, and my goal is to get to a point where we now have anything in our portfolio is growing from a profitable transaction margin dollar perspective.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Got it. And then just last couple minutes here, you know, I think that, you guys didn't provide a top-line outlook for fiscal year 2024, instead focusing on this level of profitability, et cetera, but how are you thinking about e-commerce growth itself or the macro and market environment for PayPal through February and the rest of the year? And, you know, just trying to get a sense of how you're feeling about the world you're operating in.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah, you know, it is. The way we thought about it is, we looked at 2023. We believe 2024 is going to be similar to 2023. So far, January and the beginning of this quarter has proven that out, and so we're not seeing a lot of variability there. Consumers seem to be pretty resilient. Our merchants seem to be pretty, pretty resilient, so that's how we thought about the year.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. And then, you know, you mentioned some other things that have been floating around out there. Can you give us an updated view on PayPal's credit strategy and kind of how you're feeling about that, PayPal's lending and BNPL products? How much of a growth contributor and profitability driver should we anticipate those being, especially as we think about the interest rate environment? And you know, I guess if I think about, like, the incremental margins on transactions versus credit, credit typically is lower, but would love to hear how you're thinking about those as drivers, not only for volumes, but for the business generally.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. So I always think about it customer back. It is wonderful to have lots of options for our consumers as they, as they go to make purchases.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Buy now, pay later, as an example, has allowed more consumers to be able to make purchases, particularly higher ticket items.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

But I just look at it as, as a piece of our portfolio. I really don't think about it as a specific business that we need to drive. You know, the reality is it's going to be ubiquitous. Every card, every bank, every offering is gonna have a buy now, pay later. It's just gonna be an option. The more I think about is, how do we help our consumers make the right choice at the time of purchase?

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right. Right.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

And so right now, if you're a consumer and you're faced with 15 different choices when you check out as to how you should pay for it, I don't know how you make that choice. I think we have an opportunity because of the breadth and the scale that we have and the data that we have to work with our consumers and say, "Hey, what are your goals? Are your goals to save money? Are your goals to maximize rewards? What, what do you wanna do? Let us actually leverage our AI and figure out how we help understand, with the instruments that you have, with the credit that you have, make the right choice at the right time." I'm much more focused on that, and I think that will drive more volume growth.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Well, Alex, in the last minute or so we have here, you know, we started off the conversation saying, "Hey, this is, this is a really, really complicated business within the fintech landscape." And now that you've had four months or so to, to kind of bring yourself up to speed, what are your top few things that concern you or keep you up or feel like, "Hey, we have to get this right as an organization and as a leadership team?

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Yeah. You know, there have been different points throughout my career in which, you know, I've worked with the team and stood at a whiteboard and said, "Hey, does anyone have any ideas for growth? Does anyone know what we should go do?" That is not where we are right now. We know exactly what we need to go do. This is all about execution, and it's about velocity. And so, you know, what we are working on as a team is making progress every single day, ensuring that this quarter is better than next quarter, is better than the following quarter, and ensuring that our teams are just executing.

That goes from innovation, to go to market, to how we work with, with customer service, to our OpEx, and how we continue to drive efficiencies throughout our ecosystem, and ensuring that we're delivering the most thoughtful, profitable growth for the organization. So velocity and execution, we know what to go do. We just have to go do it.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Love it. Alex, thank you so much. Appreciate you joining us here at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference.

Alex Chriss
President and CEO, PayPal

Thank you.

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