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Analyst Day 2016

May 18, 2016

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to PayPal's 2016 Analyst Day. I'm Gabrielle Rubinovich, Head of Investor Relations. On behalf of our team, thank you for joining us. We're thrilled to have you both here in San Jose and on our live webcast. We have a terrific program for you today.

The agenda items are listed here. Members of our executive team will discuss each of these items. We'll start with Dan Schulman, our President and CEO. Midway through the morning, we'll have a break. It will be about 15 minutes.

If you do not have an opportunity to spend time with our innovation showcase team during the registration period, you'll have that opportunity during the break. Please reserve your questions for the end of the morning. We'll have a Q and A session with all of our executives to end the program. In addition, USB drives loaded with today's presentation materials will be available at the registration desk after the end of the Q and A period. Now, please bear with me as I read our forward looking statements.

During this presentation, we'll discuss some non GAAP measures in talking about our company's performance. You can find a reconciliation of those metrics to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics in the presentation. In addition, management will make forward looking statements that are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from those discussed today for a variety of reasons, including those listed in the presentation. You can find more information about risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our operating results in our annual report on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q filed with the SEC and available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

You should not rely on any forward looking statements. All information in this presentation is as of today's date, May 18, 2016. We disclaim any obligation to update the information. And now I'd like to turn it over to Dan to kick off the day.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Welcome to PayPal. It's great to see so many of you today, and thank you so much for spending the next several hours with us. As Gabriel said, we have a packed agenda today, but I hope that you're going to take 2 things away from today. The first is that we have a very deep and talented management team here at PayPal.

No pressure on all of you now presenting, but you'll see that this team knows payments inside and out, and I couldn't be more proud to be a part of the team and to be working with them. 2nd, I hope you'll see just how much we've evolved as a company over the last several years. We are clearly well more than a button on a website. We are firmly focused on what merchants need and what consumers need. We have an expansive and important vision.

We are focused on where the world is going. We think this is going to be a mobile first world. You are going to see us moving directly into that world. And we feel if we can execute against this vision, and we are already starting to show that in our results. Not only can we generate a tremendous amount of value for our customers, but we think we can generate a tremendous amount of value for all of you, our shareholders.

Sometimes I hear that it's difficult to categorize PayPal because we don't fit into any neat one category. We are obviously a technology company. Everything we do is based on our software stack and our technology platform. But we're also obviously a financial services company and a very large financial services company. We're kind of an issuer because we acquire consumers.

We have 170,000,000 consumer accounts on our platform. And we're a merchant acquirer in that we have over 14,000,000 merchant accounts on our platform. Some people characterize us as a network. We are certainly a full service PSP, payment service provider. And outside of China, we are the world's largest branded digital wallet.

But we also offer a host of unbranded services, whether that be full stack payments, whether that be rewards modules, I'll go into that in detail. And you'll see that we don't do just basic payments anymore. We do remittances, we do credit, we do other things, and we're morphing into a lot more, and you'll see that during the course of the day. So inside the company, the way we think of ourselves and the philosophy that drives us every single day is that the company we want to be is the ultimate customer champion company. That's how we define ourselves.

We want to take all of our substantial assets, and we have great legacy assets to build off of, whether that's our world class risk management capabilities, our great servicing capabilities, our scale, our 2 sided platform, our new found technological prowess that we have, we want to take all of that and focus it on the needs of 2 constituencies, consumers and merchants, and importantly, the intersection between them as well. We feel we need to have this focus and have this external lens because the world around us, the world around all of us in this room is moving so rapidly. I mean, I don't have to tell all of you that the very face of money is changing. I think we are going to see more change in the financial services industry in the next 3 to 5 years than we've seen in the last 30. I think the change is going to be that dramatic.

Obviously, money is digitizing. Checks are going away. Cash, I'll talk about shortly, but that is slowly but surely digitizing. But mobile is changing everything. Mobile is changing the face of commerce.

I would argue that mobile is taking away the distinctions between what were previously separate categories of online, mobile, whether that be in app or mobile web, and in store environments. It is blurring the distinction between those. The other thing that mobile is doing is it is putting all the power of a bank branch in the palm of a consumer's hands. And we feel that these two trends provide tremendous opportunities for PayPal. In fact, I'd argue that we are just scratching at the surface of the opportunities in front of us.

The addressable market in front of us is huge, and I'll talk about that in just a second. But I was talking to a couple of folks, some of you in the room and some of the leading VCs in Silicon Valley. And what they all said to me is it's hard to think of that many companies here in the Valley that have so much more runway ahead of us than we do behind us, especially at our size. And I think that's absolutely true. Think about it, 85% of the world's transactions are still done in cash.

There's no question in my mind, I think it's inevitable that slowly but surely that cash will begin to digitize. And that digitization is a tremendous tailwind for PayPal. I'm not saying that cash is going to go away in the next 5, 10, 20 or 50 years. But I am going to say that there's no question that we are seeing that movement from cash to digital transactions, and I believe that the advent of mobile phones and software is going to accelerate that transition. The second thing is that, as I mentioned in the last slide, mobile is blurring the distinction between online and offline.

The thing we have here is commerce is just commerce. And what do I mean by that? When I order ahead from the PayPal app on my mobile phone to thousands of merchants that are on that app to order something, whether it be a sandwich or to pick something up. And I order it, I pay for it, I go to the store, I pick it up, I skip the line, is that an online transaction or was that an offline transaction? It's both.

They're coming together. And I would submit, and let's take time out of the equation, that 20 years from now, there really won't be point of sale anymore. It will basically be mobile checkout. And mobile checkout will blur the distinction that we think of today as online and offline. And it's already happening.

I mean, if you look at the holiday sales of last year during the Black Friday weekend, more people shop online using their mobile phones predominantly than they did in store. If you look at recent retail traffic, you're seeing an acceleration to more online, more mobile than people going into stores. These are both tremendous tailwinds for PayPal. That addressable market is $100,000,000,000,000 I'm not saying that, that $100,000,000,000,000 is available to us right now. But I am saying, as we look out into the future, that is the market that we are attacking.

Just to kind of put sort of rough numbers on it, if you round sort of our revenues, let's call us about a $10,000,000,000 business today. We're going after a $100,000,000,000,000 market. That's sort of the market share that we think we have today and what we can address going forward. But in order to do that, we need to change our value proposition. We need to build on the great assets that we have and take us from historically where we've been to where we think consumers and merchants are going.

And the first set of constituencies that we focus on are consumers. We have some pretty audacious goals internally for our consumer segment. We are putting on anywhere between 15,000,000 to 20,000,000 consumers a year or customer accounts under our platform a year. We hope to accelerate that as we go forward. But what we really are focused on is engagement per customer.

And you've seen our engagement go up basically quarter after quarter as we've started to implement this strategy. But what we really aspire to is to go from a PayPal customer using PayPal twice a month to a PayPal customer using us twice a week. And if the lawyers would let me say it, I would tell you what my own ambition is, which I'm going to do anyway. My own sorry, Louise. Look, my own personal ambition is that a PayPal user should use PayPal every single day.

That's what they should do. And by the way, we have proof points of that. If you look at the most engaged Venmo users, they use Venmo every single day. By the way, if you look at the most engaged PayPal users, they're already over 2 times a week as well. And so this is aspirational.

I always say, don't build it into your models because it's a long time coming, but that is what we are focused on as a company. And to do that, we need to basically rethink what we want to do with consumers. We think there's a huge opportunity to basically democratize financial services. And what we mean by that is that the basic things that all of us in this room take for granted, things like paying a bill or cashing a check, getting a loan, sending money to people you love overseas. For most people in the world, for over 2,000,000,000 people, that's incredibly timely.

They stand in line. They wait for half an hour, an hour to do a currency exchange. And then they pay an exorbitant rate to make that currency change. And that's ridiculous. We feel with technology and with mobile phones already out in the market as simpler, easier, more securely and importantly, less simpler, easier, more securely and importantly, less expensively than other alternative options that are out there.

But to do that, we need to move from this, which is our historic consumer experience, right? Somebody could load their PayPal or decide to pay for a purchase online with either credit, debit or a bank account. And then safely, securely and quickly, they could check out with predominantly an online merchant. By the way, this simple thing right here has been a great building block for all of us. It is everything we do to move forward.

We are not abandoning this. In fact, Bill will talk a lot about one touch. One touch radically changes this checkout experience. We want to continue to make checkout as seamless and frictionless and as easy as can be for consumers to purchase. And when they do, we drive incremental sales for our merchants.

But if we want to move from 2 times a month to 2 times a week and maybe even more, if I'm allowed to say that, then we need to move to a different proposition. And so we want to move from this to this for our consumer experience. And what you can see is a much more robust management and movement of money. We want to allow consumers to put all forms of currency onto our platform. We just announced that we are opening up in 1,000 upon 1,000 of retail locations the ability for somebody to go to a cashier, give cash and load that cash right on to our platform.

And so we are looking to put cash loans, P2P, other forms of currency onto our platform. So open that aperture up into our platform. And then once they're on the platform, for those who are underserved, and which we are targeting predominantly here, having personal financial management tools to manage their money is incredibly important. Budgets are incredibly important to this segment of the market. I'm going to bet, it's going to be a crazy bet, that none of you in the room here do a budget.

Do you every day do a budget? How many? 0. Okay. That's because doing a budget is incredibly difficult to do.

You have to write down every single transaction, the amount that you have for that transaction. I mean, you can be very dedicated for a day or 2 and then you just fall off. But if people can start to put their money onto our platform and take it off either online, in store, through ATMs to get cash out of the platform, do international remittances, pay their bills through our platform, then we can start to categorize all of their spend. And we can do that automatically through software. How much did you spend on transportation?

How much on lodging? How much on food? How much on entertainment? And then you define other categories that you want us to automatically create a budget for you. And then when you hit a limit that you set for entertainment, we can send you a text message and say you're going over your budget on this.

What do you want to do? Do you want to maybe send that into a sub account to one of your kids or maybe a sub account where you're going to save for your kid's education or for Christmas presents, whatever it may be. So we want to be in the middle of how consumers manage and move their money for the underserved market. We also want this to be a full choice, full optionality model for consumers. That's incredibly important for us as we think about being a customer champion.

That means that we want to allow people, if they want to sign up with their credit card and default on their credit card, that they can go and do that. If they want to do that on their debit card, they can go and do that. We want to be the ultimate customer champion. And we feel that if we can put customer choice firmly into our business model, that it also opens up the opportunity to work with the entire financial services ecosystem, because we can become a great partner for them to drive incremental spend on their cards and usage, incremental customers, and we can be great partners together. And this vision, this story is resonating extremely well within the ecosystem and we're quite confident that this is the right direction to go on the consumer side.

Now we have a 2 sided network and that's part of our secret sauce. On the other side of the network are merchants. And for merchants, we have just as dramatic a change in the value proposition that we're offering them. If you look up here, what you saw in that historic experience, it is this checkout with PayPal button that merchants used to take from us. And it was a great proposition.

We drive incremental sales. They put it on there. Incremental sales would come. The bigger we get, the more important we become to merchants. But we were just X percent of their checkout.

So we were an important partner to them, but not necessarily a strategic partner to them. And we weren't necessarily a strategic partner to them as they thought about where is the world going in terms of mobile and how do they use mobile to get closer to their customers. Because every retailer, every tech company, every mobile wireless carrier are thinking about digital payments and how do they use that to advance their business initiatives that they have. And so what we have started to put into place right now, and you'll see this over the course of the day, is a full services platform with multiple capabilities, whether that be 100 percent payment processing, and you can see all of the different types of payment processing on the bottom there that we will integrate into Discover, Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Android Pay, whether it be Discover, Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Android Pay, Apple Pay, LMNOP Pay, whatever it may be, we will integrate that simply and easily on an unbranded fashion into a merchant's checkout site. We'll also offer them the opportunity to use their rewards points or capabilities right onto our platform.

So if somebody wants to give a consumer, a merchant wants to write an application and reward a consumer with some sort of points or whatever it may be, right away, right at checkout or right at the time they are paying for that, they can use either those rewards or some of those rewards and some other tender type that they have. So split tender. If they want to put transactional credit on their site, we can do that for them. If they need working capital, we can provide that for them. If they want to engage in contextual commerce, which is you'll hear about this later today, which I think is the next iteration of commerce.

It's basically a merchant taking its storefront to where customers are as opposed to trying to drive customers to their storefront. And so we have tools and API sets for them to do that. So we have a full services platform that we are looking to on an unbranded basis to partner and power the applications of our partners. And that is why you're seeing so many partners, and we'll talk about this, begin to partner with PayPal because we are helping them to advance their strategic initiatives. Very importantly, once a merchant launches their app and we power it, we also position the PayPal branded button, our digital wallet extremely well.

We typically drive incremental traffic to our branded wallet as a result of this. But what we can do is use the 170,000,000 plus consumer accounts that we have in the future to basically seamlessly credentialize the authentication of that PayPal digital wallet holder into the merchant application because the problem that merchants have is, 1, they got to figure out the right value proposition and then, 2, they have to drive consumers to their app. And any friction in that sign up, of course, causes drop up. And so not only can we power the app, but we can populate the app as well. We think this is really important because we think the real thing that creates the explosion of digital payments are value proposition changes, not form factor changes.

And we're beginning to see all of our efforts reflected in our results. Not only are our revenues going up, our TPV is up. You saw our MS TPV last quarter at 39%, our mobile volumes up 54% in the Q1. Importantly, the number of customer accounts we're putting on and engagement is growing quarter after quarter as well. But what's very encouraging to me is that the more successful we are today, I feel the more successful we will be tomorrow.

There are a lot of people who sometimes say, well, you're being really successful right now, but what will happen 5 years from now? Well, truthfully, I don't think any of us knows what's going to happen 5 years from now. Who knows what the world will look like given the political environment we live in right now and everything else. But I will say this. The bigger we get in terms of our customer base, the stronger the flywheel effect that occurs.

Because the more consumers we have, the more important we are in the overall ecosystem. The more important we are to merchants, the more merchants we have, the more important we are to consumers. And then you see from the value propositions that we're putting here, the more services we offer to merchants and consumers, the more likely they are to stay with us. I think you'll see later on that if we add one additional service like P2P to a consumer who was just doing transactions with us before, their likelihood to stay with us goes up dramatically. And so we are really proud of these results, but we're really more focused on what's driving these results and how does that keep us with the momentum that we currently have right now.

One thing we take very seriously, and we know you count on us for this, is our commitments to all of you. We laid out these commitments back in June when we were doing our roadshow for PayPal. And you can see on every single one of these, we either met the high end or exceeded the commitments that we laid out to you. Q1 was more of the same. We take our commitments very seriously, and we think them through with a lot of diligence on our part.

When you're looking out 3 years, it's hard to know exactly what's going to happen in that 3 year period. You are making some bets on what the future will look like. But we think very carefully and thoughtfully about it, and we know these are important to you. They're extremely important to us. And we think if we stay focused on being a customer champion, we'll continue to deliver the commitments that you expect of us.

So I hope at the end of today, you are going to see that PayPal has evolved so much from where it was to where it is today, but how much more we can evolve going forward. This is the new PayPal. We have an expansive and important mission. We're executing on it. We couldn't be more excited about the opportunities in front of us in the future and what it holds for us as well.

So thank you very much for being here. I now want to introduce our next speaker. I'm going to embarrass him a little bit. So Bill is the Head of our Global Product and Engineering Group. Bill is one of the smartest people in the payments industry that I've ever met, if not the smartest person in the payments industry.

He has an uncanny sense of not just what customers want today, but what they want tomorrow. And not only does he know that, but then he and his team drive forward to get us there and deliver. And we are hitting our delivery commitments like we've never done before. The other thing about Bill is his parents knew he was going to go into payments. They knew.

Because why would you name somebody Bill Ready? Like, is my Bill Ready? If they didn't know he was going to go into payments. And so somebody who was born to be here, let me introduce Bill Reddy.

Speaker 3

Dan is already quite a tough act to follow, and I did know I didn't get that introduction, which will be very difficult to live up to now. But really great to have all of you here this morning. As we get into a little bit of our end to end platform, how we're delivering on those commitments that Dan talked about, I want to set a little more context around some of what's happening in the industry. You heard Dan talking about mobile and just how transformative that is. It's the case now that mobile has become the primary computing device.

I'll say that again. Mobile is the primary computing device now. And it's funny, in the early days of Braintree and Venmo, when I would share that vision for where mobile commerce is going, it sounded a bit fanatical and like a lunatic because at the time, 5 plus years ago, mobile was dollar downloads and ringtones. And that was the only thing people purchased on these tiny little touchscreen devices. But now, it is objectively true that mobile has become the primary computing device.

People spend more time on mobile than any other device. You have more time more of the e commerce shopping happening on mobile than any other computing device. And that was true not just this past holiday shopping season, the shopping season before that you cross that tipping point in terms of e commerce shopping happening on mobile devices. You see that from a number of different third party research firms that have pointed towards that. And the interesting thing that's happening as a result of that is that consumers are demanding very different experiences on mobile than they had on laptop and desktop.

And that really, in some ways, creates a lot of issues for the ecosystem. In many ways, it creates a lot of opportunities for the ecosystem. And so when you think about the fact that people are spending more of their time on mobile than anywhere else and demanding different experiences, it's part of why you see this gap between people doing the majority of their shopping on mobile, but not necessarily the majority of their buying just yet, depending on which 3rd party research you would look at. 10% to 15% of purchases maybe despite the fact you have more than half the shopping. So people aren't converting as much on mobile as they have on laptop or desktop, which really is because the experiences have fundamentally changed.

People are demanding a rewiring of the commerce experiences out there. And so if you're the CEO of an e commerce company, if you're running a retailer with a major online presence, the number one thing on your agenda is, oh, my gosh, my consumers have all moved to mobile, but my experiences haven't yet. What do I do? How do I catch up to that? And if you're a consumer, you're rethinking where you get your different experiences.

How do you get transportation services? How do you get lodging services? Where do you get financial services? You're rethinking those as a consumer. And so as Dan talked about, there's over the next 3 to 5 years more change coming than we've seen in the last 30, very, very true.

We're seeing much of that already. And so let's talk a little bit about why PayPal is at the center of that and why we are uniquely positioned to go deliver against what the ecosystem needs and deliver the buying experiences that consumers demand, deliver the financial services experiences that consumers demand and that the merchant side of our ecosystem is so keen to get to. So the unique part of PayPal is the 2 sided network. You heard Dan talk about that. We are unique in that we're the only player that operates on both the consumer and merchant side of the payment ecosystem and does so at scale globally.

You just don't see that any place else, particularly when you think about controlling the experiences from the consumer all the way to the merchant. All the many, many different things that happen in between a payment transaction between the consumer and the merchant that can have 20 plus entities that touch a transaction in the sort of typical payments infrastructure, PayPal can see that end to end. So as we move into a world of more and more new experiences, our ability to control the end to end from the consumer all the way to the merchant in the 2 sided network lets us deliver experiences that others can't. And while that has been traditionally what made PayPal so unique, we're enhancing that. You heard Dan talk about that in terms of where we're going and the expansive vision around where that can go.

And tangibly today, we're doing things with you look at the consumer side of our value prop with Zoom coming in and offering international remittances, which is a really, really important part of the life of those consumers that need to get money home to their families. Or Venmo, that has become a part of the a defining part of the experience for college students and millennials and something they really connect to, which is sort of unheard of for financial services. You look at the merchant side of that, where with Braintree, we're getting to next generation commerce and getting to the kinds of apps and experiences that really foreshadow where the rest of the industry is going that are building on top of Braintree and putting their entire checkout on top of Braintree. So expanding what we do for the merchant from, as Dan described, not just the button, but the entire purchasing experience. And while Braintree is doing that online and in app, for in store, we have Payday coming into the family.

It's taking that in store as retailers build their own apps for in store purchasing, bringing a full end to end solution for that as well. And interestingly, all these things are feeding back into the network that you look at Braintree that not only is powering a full checkout, it's brought PayPal into Airbnb and Uber and Dropbox and all these great next generation experiences bringing PayPal acceptance into those experiences along with powering the full checkout or Paydient getting to great in store applications. We'll talk about Subway and some of those kinds of things where we're not only powering the full experience there, but bringing PayPal's acceptance method through those things. And so there really is a great flywheel effect between the consumer and merchant side of the business, where our consumers look at the broader set of financial services we can provide, the broader set of ways they can get to new experiences because of PayPal. And our merchants look at the great incrementality we can bring them by powering so much of their commerce ecosystem, but also the consumers we can bring.

So this fantastic flywheel, But importantly, because we have the end to end experience on both sides of the network around the world, we can go light up experiences faster than anybody else as this world evolves over the next few years. So let's talk about the first of those constituents to the merchant side. So we as Dan described, we're organized around our 2 primary customer constituents, consumers on the one side and merchant on the other. And importantly, within my group, we've got consumer focused teams, merchant focused teams, and we're focused on the flywheel between those, so that we get to consumers thinking of us as a central part of their life and merchants thinking about us as an operating system for commerce. And what we provide for them, the sort of PayPal acceptance that when you think about 3 years ago, this PayPal button is

Speaker 4

the primary thing you thought about

Speaker 3

for PayPal. And you can see we've already started to expand offers and all these things that bundle in with what PayPal offers. And and offers and all these things that bundle in with what PayPal offers up, both to the consumer as well as to the merchant in terms of ways they can get incrementality from consumer. But in addition to expanding what we wrap around that, we're also improving the core service, right? That PayPal button is going the core digital wallet experience is going from a nice to have to a must have.

It's sort of a crazy thing to think about, right? That you look at the tremendous amount of volume that PayPal does today. And honestly, in the laptop desktop world, PayPal typing in your PayPal username and password was better than typing in your payment credentials and shipping address and billing address. But on a laptop or desktop, it was good, but the difference between that and the legacy wasn't as big as it's becoming in the mobile world, where it's truly becoming must have in the mobile world that people will not go type in lots and lots of information on a tiny little touch screen device. They're demanding push button experiences.

To deliver the push button experience, you need the digital wallet. You need the 2 sided network. And so the core value prop is enhancing at the same time as we're wrapping more and more around that core value prop. And so for the merchant side of this, the core value prop for them really is this full end to end. As they that CEO of that e commerce company or the head of the online division of a major retailer, just thinking about the convergence of these things happening because of mobile.

Every single thing they need to go power their buying experience is not just for PayPal acceptance, but for the entire buying experience, we're powering. And importantly, helping them to bring their experiences to life, letting them bring forward their loyalty programs, their rewards programs, so that they can do things that are about much more than just form factor conversion, that they can do things that really deliver new value to the consumer because of mobile. And honestly, those are the experiences that gain traction. You have this dichotomy of many players that have really, really tried to get mobile commerce and payments to happen with little results. And then you have other experiences that have just taken off and exploded.

And the difference is the ones that use mobile to go deliver a value proposition to the consumer, those are the ones that take off. And so as we think about enabling the full set of things that a merchant may need as we move into this mobile world, importantly, we're giving them all the tools and capabilities to go deliver their value propositions, right? That's really, really, really important and fundamentally different than just enabling moving a swipe to a tap or change in form factor. We're letting merchants deliver their value proposition in their way, bring that forward in a new context, whether that's mobile or other new context we'll talk about, but helping to enable them to do that and helping them to connect with consumers via our branded experiences at the same time. So there's this great synergistic effect between those things.

And importantly, as we do that, partnering with much of the ecosystem to do so. So let's talk about how we're doing in online checkout innovation. So it's a little bit of a there's some stats here that we'll go through and of course the obligatory up into the right chart talking about our mobile growth. But if you look at this huge business that PayPal has built in online, our Merchant Services business grew at 39% in Q1. So you think about that on this huge denominator, 39% growth.

You look at the e commerce industry in general and depending on sort of which research report you look at, plus or minus 10% kind of annual growth, PayPal's merchant services growing at 39%. So when I say that the value prop is becoming a must have, not a nice to have, and we're expanding that, Those are the objective results of us delivering on that and delivering on it at huge, huge scale. And to give you a little more of how we're doing against competitors, Comscore recently did a research report on PayPal versus other new wallet players and other traditional checkout experiences. And PayPal converted at 87.5%. Put that in context, 36% higher than the next best new wallet competitor, 42% higher than standard checkout.

And so when you sort of visualize, okay, how much better is it to have a push button experience than to go type in lots of payment credentials and shipping address and billing address, you see that reflected in conversion. That conversion, that is that issue that I said is in the mind of the CEO of an e commerce company or a major retailer. They're saying, my users just aren't converting. They're shopping with me on mobile, but they're not buying. This is the demonstration of how much more PayPal delivers on that than the legacy buying experiences out there or even other new interests that don't have the 2 sided network at scale that we do.

So all that leads to our mobile business that cumulatively since the inception of our mobile business in 2,006, we've got $175,000,000,000 in volume. And if you look at that, it took several years before it really gained traction. But now that it is, we did $66,000,000,000 in mobile last year alone, right? So you say $175,000,000,000 in the 10 years we've been doing mobile, dollars 66,000,000,000 of that last year alone. And so that is clear evidence of just how much more our value prop is resonant as we move to mobile.

But the other part of this that's really important is our global reach. So when we talk about people moving to mobile as primary computing device, that's not just here in the United States. That is a global phenomenon. In fact, for much of the rest of the world, people aren't moving to mobile as primary computing device. Mobile was their first computing device.

That's where they started. They're not thinking about, how do I move from a laptop or desktop. They never had a laptop or a desktop. Mobile was the first thing they had. And so our global reach is really important.

And when we say we're a global company, we have more than half our revenue comes outside the United States. More than half our accounts are outside the United States. And so Global Reach, that 170,000,000 consumers, more than half of them are outside the United States. And importantly, Interbrand listed PayPal as a top 100 global brand, which is a great honor and indicative of how much consumers think about us as a sign of trust and safety and security that I'm going to have a great simple experience that I know is safe when I use PayPal. It's indicative of that.

But the interesting thing, when you go outside the United States, our brand is even stronger. In the U. K, we are ranked the number 3 financial services brand in the U. K. In Australia, we are ranked the number 4 brand overall, not just for financial services, overall.

And so the others, you had Woolworths, one of the largest retailers in Australia, Google, Kohl's, PayPal as the overall top brands in the entire country. So you go outside the United States, and that's even stronger, in terms of how much we resonate with consumers outside the U. S. And very, very important for our merchants because we handle 14,000,000 merchants around the world and much of what they want from PayPal is to reach consumers around the world. And in fact, cross border trade is becoming more and more important.

What you have happening as you move to mobile, as you move to these global communication platforms, Facebook, Twitter, app stores, these are all global distribution platforms. And so as people connect with one another around the world more seamlessly, they also transact around the world and they want to transact around the world more seamlessly. And as you do that, the PayPal value proposition is on display because we have the network to let them do so, and we have the 2 sides both sides of that network, so they know they can transact safely, securely and with ease when they see PayPal. And how important is this? As some Forrester stats here, dollars 424,000,000 by 2021 is their projection on how much e commerce will happen cross border.

It will be 15% of online commerce by 2021 according to that research, And China will represent 40% of that. But then you think about, okay, well, what's PayPal doing inside of that? What's PayPal's reach there? When you look at how consumers activate on PayPal, consumers activate via cross border on PayPal, 1 in 5 in North America, 2 in 5 in EMEA, 1 in 3 in APAC. And our cross border shoppers spend twice as much with PayPal as those that are domestic only.

And cross border trade is a full 25% of our business. So just like with mobile, where we over index the industry several times on cross border trade where the rest of the industry is saying we'll get to 15% by 2021, we're at 25% today. This is the power of the 2 sided network at scale around the world. And so let's talk a little bit more about how we're driving forward on delivering sort of this rewiring of the world's buying experiences because it is the world's buying experiences that we endeavor to rewire, the world's financial services that we endeavor to rewire. So we talked a lot about PayPal One Touch and Dan hit this a little bit.

There's a big step forward on our core value proposition, how do you shop with PayPal, how do you buy with PayPal. PayPal One Touch, which basically lets you across the merchants where it's accepted, if you're a consumer that's opted into it, you can make a purchase literally by just pushing a button. No user ID and password required, no entering of payment credentials, no entering of shipping and billing address, truly a fully push button experience, no typing whatsoever. We rolled that out to PayPal users just over a year ago, and it's become the most rapidly adopted product in the history of PayPal. We have more than 22,000,000 consumers that have already started using the product.

It's in 144 merchant markets around the world, 200 plus consumer markets around the world. More than half the Internet Retailer 500 has PayPal One Touch. And so you think about that in a world where there's lots and lots of churn around, new offerings, new players vying for consumer attention and merchant attention, consumers saying, well, where can I use it? Oh, not a lot of places. Merchants are saying, well, how many consumers can you bring me?

Not a lot. We're saying we can go roll out a great buying experience that delivers great lift in conversion and do so globally. And importantly, it's really, really important, without the consumer or the merchant having to do work to get it. So it's not just that they want the new experience and they really need the new experience on both sides of the network. This is where PayPal is really unique for both the consumer and the merchant.

We can make it so there's no work for them to get it, right? So the consumer literally just opts in. A merchant doesn't have to go do new coding. They don't have to make road map changes for much of our merchant network. And that's why we have more than half the Unit Retailer 500 just in the 1st year accepting the product.

And so good place to maybe move and show you, but what is this experience like? Let's just get a visual of what we're talking about with OneTouch. We'll show a video here. So this is it's going to be a little slow. This is sort of the pre OneTouch world.

We're going to take you through like what is an online checkout today. And for the sake of the eye chart here, we're going to do it on laptop and desktop. It's far worse on a mobile device. So as you come to checkout today, we got a little timer up here that's counting just how long does this take, filling in all this information. And imagine doing this tiny little touchscreen device where you're going to have backspaces and fat fingers and get really, really frustrated.

This is why if you've got to do all this on a tiny little touchscreen, why is it that users are shopping on mobile but not yet buying? It's because most of the industry is asking them to do this. And it takes it's going to take a full minute on a laptop or desktop. On a mobile device, it's 2 plus minutes and abandonment rates are huge. It really, really is a fundamental problem that the industry is facing.

This is what if you're that e commerce CEO, what are you wrestling with? Why aren't my consumers buying from me? This is why. And by the way, those consumers have other alternatives now, right? So if they're not buying from that retailer, they're buying somewhere else.

And so they're thinking about, I've got to solve this problem. I can't put my consumers through this because consumers, particularly on mobile, which is where they're spending most of their time, will not tolerate this buying experience. It's antiquated, it's slow, and this is what we're taking them to without them having to do work. Literally press a button, no sign in required, confirm your payment where you want to ship, and literally, you're done. That's it.

And importantly, 0 typing across all of that, truly just push buttons. So you take a full minute on laptop or desktop, 2 plus minutes on mobile, down to roughly 10 seconds and no typing required. And this is why you look at and you say, well, hey, why does PayPal have a full 30% of their transactions on mobile when the rest of the industry is struggling to get to 10% or 15%? This is why. And really importantly, as we shift and talk about, well, okay, where else are we delivering this experience?

Small sellers have always been the strength of PayPal. In fact, much of PayPal's legacy is democratizing great buying experiences and putting them in the hands of small sellers. One of the really interesting things that's happened as you have this explosion of cloud computing and alternatives for more and more small businesses to go build, you have a lot more places where a small seller can go sell online. Used to be that eBay was the exclusive domain of where that would happen and it's still one of the best places a small seller can go sell things online. That's why PayPal and eBay worked so well together and still work so well together.

But as you have more and more alternatives and more places a small seller can go sell their wares, create their own site, the PayPal value prop is just as strong and on just as much display with those small sellers in those places. And so when you think about the big commerces of the world, the Shopify's of the world, the Magentos and 3 d Carts of the world and 1900 other plus partners that work with PayPal, we're solving this problem for their small sellers of how do you get around the world? How do you get great mobile experiences? How do you create trust with consumers that don't know that merchant? How does a consumer know they're going to have a safe buying experience?

We're solving that problem. The PayPal value prop is really on display there. But rather than hear me talk about it, we're going to tee up a video of CEO of BigCommerce to tell you how they think about partnering with PayPal on these buying experiences.

Speaker 5

BigCommerce is the world's leading cloud based commerce platform for fast growing merchants. We power over 60,000 stores around the world from starter merchants up to 50,000,000 or more in annual sales. PayPal powered by Braintree gives big commerce and its merchants a real competitive advantage. It's the most advanced gateway on the market, comes with all of the major payment methods that a merchant wants to accept, and those who have the one touch implementation are seeing conversion rates higher than ever before, especially for their consumers choosing it. Over the next couple of years, omni channel will be one of the things that most helps merchants to sell more on the BigCommerce platform.

From one place, you can sell through your branded online store, through social networks like Pinterest, Facebook and Twitter or through marketplaces like eBay and Amazon. All of those are being integrated into the BigCommerce platform, and PayPal is essential to all of that because payment needs to occur on those platforms as well. And every step of the way, we'll be working with PayPal to enable merchant success.

Speaker 3

So as you can see, the players that are enabling all these other alternatives where small sellers can go sell online, PayPal is a critical partner there across the entire checkout Braintree for unbranded payment acceptance, PayPal for great branded acceptance, really, really helping to bring more and more commerce to these small sellers just as we've always done even though that has shifted to new contexts. So we're going to talk a little about in app. And so as we go a little further into mobile, we've talked about that a good bit in terms of like what are the consumers demanding for mobile. You look at the in app experiences that are really redefining how consumers will engage on mobile devices And a strong majority of those runs on the Braintree platform. Braintree is powering that mobile commerce revolution.

And so the names that you know of that have defined that Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, all these run on the Braintree platform. And in addition to the really big names you know, it's also the up and comers that run on the platform as well. And so to give you a couple of tangible data points to take that from hyperbole to like objective like okay how are we doing and leading that you look at Mary Meeker's report, her latest Internet trends report and the companies that she's listed there as sort of changing the way Internet commerce works, precisely half those run on the Braintree platform, far more than any other provider out there. You also see it on display at the launch of Apple Pay, approximately half the apps on stage behind Tim Cook getting Apple Pay via the Braintree platform. At the launch of Android Pay, exactly half the apps on stage at the launch of Android Pay getting Android Pay via the Braintree platform.

So those are 3 pretty good analogs as you think about, well, how much of the next generation of in app purchasing are happening on Braintree, driving far more of that than anybody else in the ecosystem. Why are we doing that? How is that happening? It's the case that, 1, we bet on mobile really, really early with Braintree objectively before others. PayPal has started betting on that.

It's a lot of why the coming together of Braintree and PayPal made so much sense. But importantly, as we said, we want to go democratize access to these tools. Everybody knows the Uber experience that runs on top of Braintree. But importantly, we said, as mobile commerce starts to happen, we need to democratize the push button buying experience. But we also need to democratize a lot more sophisticated capabilities so that app developers can deliver great mobile commerce experiences.

And so, yes, it's great easy APIs that access the things you need to accept payments, but that alone, a cool API is necessary, but not sufficient. Importantly, it's easy access to sophisticated capabilities, fraud tools, being able to accept payments around the world, being able to deliver great buying experiences through native mobile APIs, those types of things, getting access to the best online buying methods, PayPal, One Touch and other new entrants to the space, really, really important. And so that's why you see so many of the preeminent companies that are changing the space run on the Braintree platform far more than anybody else. It's for that reason. It's not just the sexy API.

It is what you get access to with that API. And then it can take you from your first dollar of revenue to $1,000,000,000 plus in revenue. And we have many, many examples of that full journey happening on our platform and many, many companies that do 1,000,000,000 of dollars on the platform. And to make that even more objective, terms of how that's doing, in the last year, the transactions processed on Braintree have grown by more than 3x in the last year. So even on a huge denominator, growing at 3x in the course of the last year in terms of the transactions that happened on the platform.

We talked about democratizing push button buying experiences, 269,000,000 consumer cards on file with Braintree, over a250,000,000 on file with Braintree. So when we talk about democratizing those types of buying experiences and doing it at scale that others can't match, gives you some objective data around that. 46 markets where we allow this to happen. So we're not just doing this in the U. S, doing it around the world.

And so when you think about the great experiences here that run on the platform, well, there are alternatives to those or some that have gone global. Those outside the U. S. Tend to run on the Braintree platform as well. And so the common thread across all these things is that PayPal's strength, the 2 sided network has always been most on display as we move into new context, right?

Every time consumers and merchants meet one another in a new context, immediately, you need a brokerage of trust. You need both sides to be able to seamlessly connect with one another. And so every single time consumers and merchants have met one another in a new context, PayPal has led the way. That started with eBay in the late '90s, and that has grown into a tremendous business. It then moved mid-2000s to online e commerce for many, many other merchants, and that's grown into a tremendous business.

And then mobile, while that started in 2016, you saw there are many years of that being less than 1% of PayPal's volume and then in the last few years because we iterated on that early and once the consumer got there and the ecosystem started to catch up, it's a full 30% of PayPal's transactions now happen on mobile. And so while those three new contexts have now become big businesses, still with lots of growth left, have become big businesses, we have 2 more new contexts that are just starting to shape up. But the common thread of, okay, the consumer and the merchant are going to meet each other in some new place, and how do they do that? Our 2 sided network that is unique allows us to deliver that in ways that no one else can. And so we're going to talk about in store.

We're going to talk about social and other context of how that's starting to emerge, But we're going to tee that up first with what we're doing in store. And so I welcome Kevin Laresi, came in as CEO of Paydient and now leads all of in store for PayPal.

Speaker 6

Thanks very much, Bill. It's really great to be here in front of all of you today. And one of the things I'd like to point out is that it's such an exciting time to be at PayPal because of the pace of the innovation that's happening. And certainly, we think there's a lot of innovation occurring in store. And to kind of go back to one of the points that Dan made, as we're deploying more of these leading edge next generation solutions in store, what we're really doing is dramatically expanding our addressable market.

Remember, all of these in store transactions used to be locked up behind a Magstripe terminal. And now because of the advent of the mobile device, they're really available to us and available to the PayPal user. That transition is also helping us move closer to what Dan's talked about, which is moving our customer closer to being able to use this 2 times a week versus 2 times a month, which is really exciting. What I'm going to do today is talk to you a little bit about our platform for in store, some of the features it has, some of the benefits it delivers, but most importantly, as Bill said, how it enables us to deliver some really compelling next generation user experiences that we call smart wallet experiences. So if you look at this slide, it's really an illustration of our strategy.

We want PayPal to be everywhere in store. And that starts with having a platform that enables the merchant to enable any app that they want to be able to conduct a transaction in store. Certainly, we're doing that for the PayPal app. But more and more, especially the largest merchants, want to launch their own branded mobile wallet capability inside of their own app, and we are making it easy for them to do that. We can even enable mobile banking apps to transact in their store if they like or other apps.

Now one of the ways that we're succeeding with merchants is that we're giving them a lot more capability than just payment processing. Dan talked about this. We're delivering real solutions. And enrollment capabilities to really streamline that very critical first step, and enrollment capabilities to really streamline that very critical first step in getting their app going. How do they get customers enrolled very easily, very quickly and at very low cost?

We're also doing things like mobilizing what might have been a card based loyalty program for them. We're also providing risk and security services to make transactions done with this platform much safer for the consumer and much more cost effective for the merchant. And we like to call this merchant. Now what does it really mean in terms of benefits? Well, one of the key benefits is that by leveraging PayPal and leveraging all of our capabilities, the merchant can deliver an experience to the consumer that's the same regardless if the consumer is using an iOS device or an Android device, big benefit.

Another big benefit, a lot of these large retailers have very heterogeneous, very complicated in store environments. They might have 500 stores that run a proprietary point of sale and another 1,000 running Micros. No problem if they go with PayPal. We're agnostic about that. We make the experience the same for the consumer regardless of the underlying point of sale platform.

And of course, as I mentioned earlier, we also allow the merchant to deploy a variety of payment instruments. Bill's talked about this, Dan's talked about it. If the merchant would like to have their own private label card or their own gift card in that wallet, they can do it. If they want standard credit and debit, they can do that as well. Whatever they want, the platform supports it.

We're agnostic about it. And finally, of course, letting them accept any app that they like in their store. The platform enables that. It gives them the choice, and it gives them the flexibility to deliver that kind of capability. Now none of this really matters though unless we can deliver a really compelling user experience.

Bill talked a lot about this, rewiring the experience, making it completely different. And one of the great things about our 2 sided network and our assets We can know the We can know the context of what merchant they're at, what location they're at. We can know about the transaction, and we can use that to deliver a really compelling experience that goes far beyond just turning a swipe into a tap. What we're really doing is we're really allowing the merchant and the consumer to realize the promise of putting the mobile device in the middle of this transaction. What does that mean for the merchant?

The merchant wants to leverage the mobile device to get deeper engagement, more loyalty from that consumer. And the way that they want to do it is by getting more information about that consumer every time that they transact with this mobile app on the PayPal platform, and we can deliver that to the merchant. For the consumer, we give them what they want, right? We give them a frictionless experience to pay in store, to engage in that commerce transaction. But the other really neat thing that we do is we can deliver back to them information about how that merchant is actually giving them a good deal, how they're earning or burning loyalty points during the transaction, how an offer is being redeemed, all of that we can expose to them.

So what I'm going to show you now is an animation that illustrates one of these Smart Wallet user experiences where you'll see a consumer using the Mom's Deli app kick off a transaction and typically in a retailer app these days, it's done by showing or scanning a QR code. And then you'll see in a seamless way with a single interaction at the point of sale, we're going to redeem an offer, we're going to deliver a payment instrument to make the payment, and we're also going to earn and burn loyalty points. Let's go ahead and roll the animation. You'll see here, kick off the transaction, selects their preferred payment instrument PayPal, redeems an offer, earns and burns loyalty points, all with one interaction, all driven off of our cloud based platform. Now for merchants, we do something really, really cool.

And Bill talked about this, the power of our 2 sided network and the fact that we have all of this information about consumers. This is so great for the merchant and so great for the consumer. What we're going to do is we're going to leverage the fact that, that consumer already has entered their e mail address, their name, their address, and we're going to let the consumer opt in to using that data to register for the Mom's Deli app, including giving the Mom's Deli app their PayPal credentials. So let's go ahead and roll the animation. What's especially interesting here is this is a one touch user.

So although it said speed up the registration by logging in, they didn't have to. We prefilled the name, e mail address, consumer just sets up their password, they're ready to go, ready to start using the app, ready to pay with PayPal. Now next, what we're going to do is we're going to show you some real world examples of how some of our customers are actually leveraging this platform. So the first one we're going to show you is Shell. Shell in the U.

K. Is something they call the motor staff, and what they're doing is they're leveraging PayPal to deliver a great user experience to make it really easy for their customers to unlock the pump and actually go ahead and pay for their gas. Let's go ahead and play the video.

Speaker 7

From busy bakers to hectic decorators, to multitasking moms, we know you're busy. That's why we've teamed up with PayPal to introduce Fill Up and Go, a speedy secure mobile payment service. Here's how it works. Once you've downloaded our app, simply pull up to the pump, open the app, and enter your code. Then scan the QR code or enter the pump ID.

And that's it. No more queuing behind weekly shoppers. No more leaving the kids behind when you pay. Just fill up and go. And we'll even send you an electronic receipt, leaving you to get on with your busy life.

Speaker 6

Pretty cool. So Dan also talked about how we as a company are becoming much more partner friendly and enabling so many more services that are even enabling us to become a deeper partner than ever before with financial services firms, other firms. And so what I want to show you is what, for some of you, may actually be a reasonably unexpected use of our platform, and that is we're going to show you how with our partner FIS and with BMO Harris, we're actually enabling banks to embed in their mobile banking applications the ability to get cash out of ATMs. And this functionality now is actually embedded in the applications that run the 2 major ATM providers' ATMs for both Diebold and NCR. Let's go ahead and just play the video.

Speaker 1

BMO Harris Mobile Cash. Just point and scan. Leave your card at home. Money. I think someone's been practicing.

BMO Harris Bank. We're here to help.

Speaker 6

Great. And with that, I will be turning it back to Bill. Thank you all very much.

Speaker 3

All right. As you've now seen from what Kevin showed with in store, what we talked about previously with in app and online, across all these, we are bringing together the entire PayPal platform, empowering new experiences, oftentimes in ways you wouldn't expect, right, powering an ATM transaction that you wouldn't have thought of PayPal doing previously, but we're taking the 2 sided network, taking the platform that we have and opening that up to go power so much more of the evolving commerce landscape. And all that is fully integrated, ties together and is part of both the amazing global platform that we have and part of the flywheel effect of how this continues to just build upon itself and compound as the 2 sided network is really on display across so many of those experiences. And so we should talk some about the other side of our network, the consumer. And so this flywheel effect, what our merchants across so many of these experiences want most is connectivity to consumers.

They want incrementality. They want the ability to go create transactions that otherwise wouldn't have happened. So much of the traditional payments world is thought of as sort of dial tone access, right? Like it's just getting access into sort of the dial tone versus what can you do for me that gets me a next sale, a new purchase, a next user. That is far more differentiated than just can you process a transaction.

And so that side of our network, tremendously important. And how we serve the consumer to make sure that we have the great other side of that flywheel is super important. You heard Dan talk about, if we democratize access to financial services, we can help billions of people to fulfill their dreams, right? And we have that sounds like a very ambitious statement, right? And perhaps a higher place in the consumer's mind than maybe what we occupy today, but we're already starting to get there with many of our experiences.

And so as we think about becoming a central part of the financial life of the consumer, PayPal today is 2 to 3 times a month. We want to get to 2 to 3 times a week. But as we mentioned previously, we've already seen for our most engaged Venmo users, they engage daily, often multiple times a day. And it's something that you ask them, well, if you can only have 3 apps on your phone, which would you pick? And it commonly comes up.

I gave a talk at Stanford Engineering a few months back and told them about some of the things that we do and all the great experiences we power. And oh, and you may also know Venmo. And all the way up to that point, the room was like, oh, yes, pretty cool. Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox. Okay, cool.

And then, oh, yes, you may know Venmo, and the room erupts, oh, my gosh, Venmo changed my life. And so it's that kind of reaction that people have, but you're seeing that across much of what we're doing. And we already have a primary position in the mind of the consumer across many of our stores. You take the core PayPal experiences where we talked about for online purchases, for in app purchases, for cross border transactions. For each of these places, the consumer already thinks about PayPal as the primary way they'll do these things.

So for many aspects of their financial life, PayPal is primary already. And as we expand those, we come to even more and more of a primary position in the consumer's mind of how they think about managing and moving their money, how they think about their daily financial life. And so as we talk about how we're doing that, one of the things that we're doing, consistent with other major players in the industry, is that we're consciously employing a multi app strategy, right? In a world of apps, you have thinner slices, more specialized functions, those types of things. And so while at the foundation, we have the PayPal app that recently rolled out in more than 140 plus markets in a single day, driving great global innovation and great engagement with consumers there.

We also have Venmo that connects to a demographic and creates experience around social that just has not been seen in financial services before, not been seen in commerce before. You have Zoom that in enabling international remittances is this really, really important part of the daily life of the consumers that use that product. And so just as you see with Facebook, for example, that has multiple apps, some of which do similar things, Facebook, when they think about does the next generation of users want to use the Instagram app to take a photo and share it or the Facebook app, was all feeding back into the same network, right? And so the user can choose the front end experience they want, Instagram to take the photo or the Facebook app to take the photo, but it's feeding back into the same network. And we're doing that across these experiences as well.

And we'll talk more about that where Pay with Venmo is starting to get into at Braintree and PayPal Merchants. PayPal and Zoom, you'll be able to use PayPal for these international remittances. And so we're bringing those things together so you're getting the benefit of the network just as you would with like the Facebook, Instagram example or think about Google where you segment not on demographics, but on the use case, the slice of use case that whether you're using Gmail or Google Maps or Google Docs or these different things, you have slices of experiences that are separate apps, but you have a common network across those things. So we're employing that kind of strategy, but importantly, bringing together the benefit of the network behind those things so that we can segment on either demographic or on use case, which is really important as we move into a mobile and social world, but tying that all together. And so how much are we doing of that?

What's that look like? We have more than 170,000,000 consumer accounts. We've talked about that. So the PayPal side has massive, massive scale on that, far bigger than you see from any other financial service provider really, particularly outside of China as you think globally. Venmo, at more than $1,000,000,000 a month on Venmo, you think about that, how many apps in the world do more than $1,000,000,000 a month in volume through a native app?

You probably don't need all your fingers to count the number of apps in the world that have that kind of volume flowing through them. Zoom had 1,600,000 accounts as of the end of last year. Again, this really critical service connecting users around the world. So significant scale there across many, many markets. We'll come back and talk more about Zoom.

And all that together, you're getting to $66,000,000,000 of mobile payment volume in 2015, dollars 1,400,000,000 mobile payment transactions. So doing this is a huge, huge scale, And we're just getting started and sort of expanding to the full set of what Dan talked about in the expansive vision of what we can do to go serve our consumer and help them to manage and move their money, democratize access to financial services. And so where are we headed? We hit this a little bit before. That previously, you thought of PayPal and you had just a few ways to get money into PayPal, and you had really only one way to get it out.

And so if you only had one way to get it out, you're probably not going to put as much money in because it's harder to get it out. And so as we think about expanding that, we are simultaneously expanding both sides of the money coming in and your ways to get money out, right? There's far more ways to get money in. And we embrace consumer choice. We want consumers to use any way they want to be able to go transact with our system.

And that opens up a lot of partnership opportunity, ways we can work with others, and We want to let them go transact any way they want on the other side of that, whether that's online, in app, whether it's taking money out through an ATM, all these things, any way they might think about getting money out of the system, we want to let them do that as well. And if we can do that, we can really start to do so many more things around how we help them manage and move their money. And there's quite a lot that we think about in terms of what we can go do with that, but the foundation of that is that if we can get great access for money into the system, great ways to get money out of it at a moment in time when consumers are reimagining who provides these services, right? You think about something like Venmo that now is like the core part of the daily life of a millennial. That's an example of how people are just as they move to mobile saying, well, hey, I sort of reassess who I look to, to do these things for me, and there's new things that can be done for me that weren't there before.

So importantly, it's at a unique moment in time where we have the opportunity to do it. And consumers are already thinking about for so many of these other new experiences. Well, PayPal is already who I look to, to provide those. And so at the moment in time where consumers are open to finding these new experiences, PayPal has license to provide those new experiences. So let's talk about one of those that gets a lot of attention in Venmo and has really become a cultural phenomenon.

We talked about the $1,000,000,000 a month that Venmo hit in January, but you talk about the obligatory up into the right chart continuing to accelerate, right? So if you look just in the last couple of years, Venmo has gone from you go back here to like early 2014, still very much this experimental thing that people are saying, wait, people are having a conversation about their payments? What's that like? I haven't heard about that before. To, on this side of it, one of the most popular apps in the world when you think about how much dollar volume is going through that app and continuing to expand.

And as we've done that, going from experimental app back here to essential part of the daily life of many users, we're expanding out the way we offer that service, making sure that it's gone from experimental to well rounded with 24x7 customer support, phone support, all these kinds of things that as a consumer thinks about this as a more essential part of their life, that it's well rounded and offers those things as well. But the real secret sauce of Venmo, in addition to being just a really slick native transaction that takes the friction out of paying somebody back out of them out of sending money on a mobile device is really the fact that it captures real life moments, right? That you think about the moments of magic in that and that you get on Venmo and you see, oh, my friends are already there, and I can transact with them seamlessly. It's really easy. And the awkward exchanges we had before, like going to dinner and like we all plop down 10 credit cards and the server looks at us like, I want to murder you, goes to, okay, one person can put down a card and like, I'll just Venmo you, right?

And not only that, the conversation about the great dinner that we had or the round of drinks that we shared is captured there as well. And so interestingly, this conversation, this thing that was this sort of oddity of Venmo when we first started doing it that we thought was really important because we really felt that while P2P was a great early use case for mobile, we also knew that there were real conversations to be had there, right? Social commerce, if you look at sort of 5 years ago when we started with this, social commerce was dead, right? Like everybody had tried it. It hadn't worked.

And sort of social commerce was thought to be dead. And it's, oh my gosh, why are you doing this? The difference was we captured organic transactions, sort of that adage that how you know where to put the sidewalks on campus, we'll just look where the grass is worn down already. Everybody else is trying to force conversations in places where they weren't happening. We said, let's just capture the organic conversations that people may not be ready to talk about every single payment they make, but the person to person payments, those tend to be in person with a group of friends.

There's probably a conversation around how that happened, the concert that you went to or the dinner that you share or the event that was shared by the group. So there's an organic conversation that we captured. And we see that many, many users open the app just to engage with the news feed, just to see where other people are transacting and comment on those things and like those things. And so that's a big part of how we get to a significant portion of Venmo users actually engaging daily. Even when they don't have payment transactions to make, they engage daily because they want to see what their friends are doing.

They want to see what were my friends up to last night, and they see that in the app. And importantly, as we think about expanding that, you look at emojis inside of Venmo and sort of what people are sharing. Pizza is the most popular emoji. It gets shared every few seconds or actually 20 times or once every 20 seconds a pizza emoji gets shared, which sets us up for things like we did an experimentation with Papa John's last year to make it so that at the end of Papa John's purchase, you could go split the tab using Venmo, right? Well, the reason that happened is they could look and see users were already declaring, here is what I use Venmo for.

I'm already using Venmo to go split those transactions. And there's many, many other things that people are using Venmo for. And in fact, just Venmo me or I'll Venmo you, like Venmo has become a verb. And you look at this these are just some tweets just in the last few days before we had to like finalize presentation here, right? So just some recent ones where you look at whether you're at, I think this is University of Central Florida here, on the East Coast all the way to Fresno State, so not just like Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, the elite places, it's everywhere.

A state school guy myself, no judgments there. It's from Central Florida to Fresno State, it's becoming a central part of the college experience, right? Like your college experience, Venmo is one of those things that defines it. Just Venmo me is part of what's in your mind when you think about what was your college experience. That's when we talk about becoming a part of the daily life of consumers, that's what we mean.

Why is that happening? So you see the one down here at the bottom. These are go to a Twitter search yourself, right? Like these are not unique. These are sort of out there all the time.

I care more about the captions in Venmo than about actually getting paid for anything. And so think about that. A financial service where people care more about the experience than the actual dollars being exchanged. And so where does that put you in the mind of the consumer relative to typical financial services? It's a completely different it's not a different arena like it's a completely different sport, right?

That is just totally different than the way the legacy sort of industry thinks about these things, but it's part of how the next generation of consumers thinks about them and what they're going to demand. And so Venmo Me as a verb, unlike others, that can mean, oh, we'll use some other service, Venmo necessitates you're doing it on Venmo. Venmo is synonymous with like, if we're going to transact, you're going to pay me, I'm going to pay you. Venmoing you is not only the verb, it prescribes how we're going to do that. And so we're taking that from this small slice of transactions.

So imagine if this small slice of transactions, person to person transactions made an essential part of the daily life of those users. As we now expand that to the other 90% of the transactions they conduct, how much of a part of their daily life can that be? We look at what we're doing at Pay with Venmo. So Pay with Venmo is now in beta. And interestingly, we're not just making that so that it's another buying experience, that it's okay, another push button buying experience.

It's capturing the magic of Venmo and bringing it to transactions outside of P2P. So you look at this, this is Muncury where not only can I have a seamless purchase on Muncury, I can split the transaction? So if I need to split it with my roommates, I can do it right inside of the purchase that we split it right there. It takes all the awkwardness out of, well, hey, I sprang for the food, you got to pay me back, which for most of us in this room, like we're probably okay with like just picking up the tab and you'll get it next time, I'll get whatever. If you're in college, you're a millennial, you're still struggling with student loans, all these things, that matters a lot.

Or you can share it. You can say, hey, here's the great thing I got that I want my friends to experience. So I can share it right from within the app. So there's a great flywheel around that and the engagement it creates. And we think bringing that to more experiences only spins that flywheel faster.

And so you also see it on display within game time. And so we're testing with this. We've opened it up to just over 1,000,000 users and to test it out. We're keeping it tight with a couple of merchants right now because we really, really want to make sure the experiences are right before we really start to expand it widely, which we're looking at doing in second half of this year. We'll start to broaden the aperture of places where you can use Pay with Venmo.

But we really, really want to make sure that we get the experience right, that we're capturing the organic conversations, going where the grass is worn down already, and that it's something that users are going to really love. We've had fantastic feedback so far. So we're looking forward to expanding that out later this year. But let's watch it in action and take a look at a video of just what Pay with Venmo is doing.

Speaker 4

So as

Speaker 3

you look at that, as I described, so much of that is beyond the payment, right? It's capturing the conversation, curating that experience, curating the connection between users. It's not a coincidence that we started with 2 experiences in Muntree for food services and game time for events because these are social activities, right? It's where the conversations are most natural. So we can make sure we get that experience really right.

And so like I said, looking forward to broadening that out to more of our base in second half of this year. But while Venmo is doing has become an essential part of the daily life of users and at great scale, we have even greater scale within the PayPal app. And as I mentioned, we've recently launched in 140 plus markets simultaneously with great increase engagement. A lot of fantastic things happening with the innovation in the PayPal app and PayPal P2P. So I want to welcome up Joe Lambert to tell you more about both of those.

Thanks, Joe.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Thank you. In the next 10 minutes or so, I'm going to give you an update on how we're taking advantage of this huge opportunity that Bill and Dan have talked about in the Mobile First Movement to actually be able to really redefine financial services. I'm going to discuss how consumers are engaging with PayPal's app as well as our P2P services, and you'll increasingly see how we're continuing to blur the lines between the online and the physical worlds. Let me start.

Bill just said then, we just recently relaunched our mobile application across the globe in 145 markets across both iOS and Android. It's been a remarkable relaunch. It was a complete replatforming and redesign. We simplified and personalized the experience for consumers, putting the most important customer actions front and center. You can see here on the home screen, you can see your balance, so you know where you are financially.

We made being able to view your transaction history much cleaner, being able to separate out pending transactions so that you can see what's coming up next and also made it really clear in that transaction history which funding source you used to make that purchase. We made also we streamlined the sign up process, making it easier to join the PayPal franchise, and we also integrated credit into the experience, which was for the first time integrated actually into our mobile app experience. The results are speaking for themselves. Since relaunch in February, our sign ups are up 33%, making our application a really powerful acquisition tool for new PayPal customers across the globe, 145 markets. And we're seeing 14% more downloads since our relaunch.

What's actually one of the best things about the relaunch and the redesign is actually the new better navigation is also making it easier for our customers to discover what PayPal can do for them. So customers can find we offer P2P, we offer order ahead services. And actually since launch, our order ahead services are actually up 38%. These are remarkable results. Let's take a look at the video.

But that's just the beginning. In addition to sending money, receiving money, paying in store, ordering ahead, as Dan mentioned earlier, we've also integrated the ability to be able to add cash at point of sale across the U. S. In 66,000 retail stores, customers can go up to a point of sale and add cash into their PayPal account. This helps customers to digitize cash and to be able to easily shop online or pay their bills.

We're continuing also to add new features and functionality. Coming very, very soon is NFC will be added into our wallet in the U. S. And across Australia in the summer. We're also integrating Zoom into the PayPal application, giving PayPal customers, 184,000,000 customers across the globe, the ability to have better remittance opportunities to send money to friends and family.

We're adding mobile minute top ups, which is a new service, which actually helps us to serve the needs of the more than 50% of the world's population who are still operating on prepaid mobile phones. And we'll add other capabilities like bill pay and bill splitting to help consumers manage and move their money more effectively. This new app and the new features is going to help us to drive from that 2 to 3 engagements per month, 2 to 3 engagements per week to the 2 to 3 engagements per day. But we can also deploy these capabilities using our platforms to power our partners' applications, and we can help them to meet the needs of their 100 of millions of customers around the world. We're already working with partners around the world.

But 2, we just recently announced, are Vodafone in Europe, where we're enabling millions of users to pay with Android smartphones in restaurants and retail locations using the Vodafone wallet. We also just recently announced a partnership with American Movil. With them, we're building co branded applications, one is for Telcel in Mexico, the other Claro in Brazil, which will help us to actually serve more than 140,000,000 customers active with Telcel and Claro to be able to help them to be able to request to top up their mobile phones or top up their own mobile phones and also helping them to make everyday purchases from their devices in just a few easy steps. We'll continue to support partners across the globe with our services, whether it be P2P, mobile top up, payment solutions, and we can then help to reach many, many more customers' needs across the globe. So one of the capabilities that is actually having the most traction and has a lot of opportunity for PayPal is peer to peer payments.

And Bill already touched on just how powerful peer to peer payments is becoming with Venmo, but it's across all of our properties. Consumer habits are rapidly changing, and digital P2P is fast facilitating the digitization of cash and checks. P2P payments is anticipated to grow to $174,000,000,000 by 2019. That's just in the United States. And to put some context to that, that's up from $5,600,000,000 in 2014.

This is an enormous opportunity. And through PayPal, Venmo and Zoom, we offer consumer choice and flexibility, and P2P is at the core of what we do. In 2015 alone, we did $41,000,000,000 in transaction volume in P2P across PayPal, Venmo and Zoom, and that's up 42% year over year. Now that $41,000,000,000 number is more than just friends and family. It also includes PayPal's goods and services P2P.

Through P2P goods and services, we are able to help millions of buyers and sellers connect across the world, providing buyers and sellers with protections and also driving incremental revenue. P2p also drives considerable engagement and also helps us to acquire new customers. Consumers also sending money and keeping balance within the PayPal ecosystem also then respend that balance at PayPal merchants around the world. P2P users, as Dan alluded to in his remarks earlier, are some of our most engaged users across our franchise. P2P users are actually 67% more engaged.

And P2P is quickly, as I said, becoming one of the most significant acquisition channels for us. We'll continue to improve and evolve our P2P services. Just recently, we launched PayPal. Me, which allows small businesses and charities and individuals to create a URL to drop into any digital conversation, be it text, e mail, social network, on the web, to be able to get paid back more easily and also take that awkwardness out of requesting to be paid back. And there's so much more we can do in this space.

So driving solutions to help people manage and move their money is central to PayPal's consumer vision. We are actively working to support new entrants also who are also endeavoring to drive financial participation. One example up here actually on the top right is Acorns, which is a start up democratizing investment services across the world. We recently made a small investment in Acorns and are working really closely with their leadership team to identify ways to work together to accelerate micro investment and again help to democratize investment services across the world. We're committed to delivering innovative and mobile solutions to help people manage and move their money less expensively and saving considerable time.

So with 77,700,000,000 mobile connections worldwide, we have a tremendous opportunity to transform and mobilize financial services. There's 2,000,000,000 adults in the world who do not have access to bank accounts and many, many, many more who are spending considerable time and money trying to make the existing system work. In the U. S. Alone, 1 in 13 households do not have a bank account and are entirely underserved.

And in so many other markets across the world, mobile technology can help us and will help us reimagine money to better serve everyone. So PayPal has a fantastic head start in payment innovation, and we will continue to be at the head of the curve. We have a very clear vision, powerful platforms, 100 of millions of users and a brand that was built on trust and security, in particular as it relates to personal financial information. And this helps power that flywheel effect that Bill and Dan both talked about earlier, bringing this 2 sided network together and connecting 170,000,000 customers, consumers with 14,000,000 merchants around the world. So we've talked a little bit more detail about PayPal and our mobile solutions.

We've talked a little bit about Venmo. Now I'd like to introduce John to talk a little bit more about Zoom.

Speaker 9

People come to this country to work hard. Their priority is to earn money and send as much of it home as possible to help the ones they left behind. At Zoom, a PayPal service, we work tirelessly to move money so that all immigrants can send money, pay bills internationally, and reload mobile phones for their friends and family around the world, bringing them closer.

Speaker 10

Last time when my parents came to the United States, it was when my son was born. I really wanted them to come. So I immediately used Song. I transferred money at 12:30 and they instantly got it. The next morning, they booked their tickets.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 11

All right. Good morning, everyone. I'm so excited to be here, especially after listening to all that, which I've heard many times before, just gets me so excited. I'm here to tell you about Zoom's role in PayPal's future. And we intend on dramatically increasing the reach of PayPal and reinforcing our shared vision to bring more financial services to more markets, and importantly, incremental markets.

And the opportunity is very, very large. As you can see here, dollars 600,000,000,000 moves cross border every year in the remittances space. That's just a lot of money. To the countries that receive these flows of money, they're absolutely vital to their economy. Often, it's the single largest contributor to GDP.

And to the people, the individuals who are sending or receiving money, this is very emotional. As Bill pointed out in his talk, our customers in the United States are primarily 1st generation immigrants. They've moved here to gain better opportunity, They've also moved here with a social contract to send money back home to the loved ones that they've left behind, mom and dad, sister, brother, sometimes even spouse and kids. And we're talking about maintaining lives and sometimes sustaining lives, basic necessities like putting food on the table, keeping the water running, putting electricity in the home, making sure our family has shelter, Taking care of the financial obligations of the family unit back home is one of the primary objectives, one of the emotional objectives of our consumers. Most of this business is served by off line money transfer companies, which are hard to use, hard to access and sometimes expensive.

Well, Zoom revolutionized this business when we were founded 15 years ago as the first all digital money transfer company. And we haven't stopped innovating since. Like PayPal, you heard all about mobile and how it's transforming the world. It's true in remittances as well. And we are now a mobile first money transfer company, clearly the leader in mobile money transfer, with more than 2 thirds of our transactions originating from a mobile device.

Folks, that just makes sense because I pull this out of my pocket, I log in with my thumbprint, I press one button, and mom in seconds has her money. I could be on the construction site, in the restaurant. I could be on my 12 hour shift at the hospital. I could be on the bus. I could be on couch.

And seconds later, mom has money. That's why people use our mobile service so frequently. And we don't just pay cash. You heard about being the consumer champion, giving the customers choice. We do the same thing at Zoom.

We can send cash. That's what everyone else does in the business. But we also put money directly into bank accounts. We pay bills. We reload phones.

And we do this, importantly, at speed. One of the cornerstones of Zoom's value proposition is instant. You want your money right away. So we're going to give you your money right away. And we do that in part because we have relationships with the world's largest financial institutions, retailers and mobile wallets.

As evidenced here, we're about to start putting money in M Peso wallets in Kenya. We're partnered with the largest bank in the Philippines, the largest retailer in Mexico. This is true for every market we serve. We go in, we partner with the best so we can deliver the best value proposition to our consumers. Now some of you have asked me out there, how's it going with the PayPal integration?

And I'm going to go on record and say it's going fantastic. It's really going great. We are able to take advantage of this global footprint at PayPal existing in more than 200 markets, giving us the confidence to grow our received markets in just 6 months from 39 to over 50 markets. We have the confidence to start working on more Send markets. We're going to take that amazing global asset.

It's going to help us get to Canada, U. K, Europe, Australia and other Send markets as well. We're going to give those 1,600,000 loyal customers an even better experience. They're so loyal, by the way, that in any given period, more than 90% of our volume is from repeat customers. And that's because we have the best service with the best ways to pay out money, the fastest ways to pay out money and soon on a global scale.

Let's talk a little bit about where we are right now. 1,600,000 customers can send money to mom and dad, brother, sister, spouse. You can send cash, put money into bank accounts, pay bills, reload phones. But we're not going to stop there.

Speaker 12

I want to

Speaker 11

tell you a little story. I was in Mexico a couple of weeks ago in a large retailer. They pay millions of they transact millions of transactions per week. And they do all of these things. They pay out for health care.

They allow you to buy insurance. They allow you to pay off layaway plans. Now these customers stand in line, and I got to watch them between 10:20 at a time all day long. You guys stay in line probably every week to fly, right? Well, we can't digitize the TSA, I'm sorry.

But we can digitize these payments and bring real convenience to millions of consumers in our markets for the very first time who have to stand in line, walk up with cash just to keep their water running. Or walk up with cash, I saw a $300 mortgage payment made just to pay their mortgage. You stand in line every week for your job. These people stay in line every week to live. And we're going to deliver democratization to them in ways that will deliver such great convenience and benefit to them.

We're really excited about this. Now very soon, we're going to have our own requesting experience available to beneficiaries. They will be able to use a software experience on their phones. Instead of staying in that line, you just enroll in Zoom on that phone and ask your loved one for money, not just cash, but all of the services that we make available so that you don't have to stand in line anymore. We can deliver freedom to these people, convenience, put time back in their day.

That is what we intend to do. And as we're building this robust more robust than the experience with this robust receiving experience and knowing that the PayPal wallet, that wonderful PayPal wallet is at the center of all of this. We will now be able to let people control how they spend their money. If I send $300 to my sister in Mexico, she'd be able to direct $100 of it out to cash, $50 out of it to a bill, maybe $200 over to the PayPal wallet so she can shop online with a PayPal merchant for the first time, giving consumers flexibility and choice through convenience. That's what we intend to do.

This delivers a send request spend vision for Zoom and PayPal. And it delivers the proof in this vision of why we're so excited at Zoom. I can tell you all of our employees are super excited because of that shared vision. We are going to bring digital services to mass markets for the first time and bring them true value and bring PayPal incremental synergies. With that, I'll say thank you and invite Gabrielle back up on the stage.

Speaker 1

Thanks, John. That was incredible. It's now time for our 15 minute break. We will return at 10:35. Thanks.

Okay. Well, welcome back from the break. I'd now like to introduce Steve Aloca, who is going to discuss our credit business.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 13

Thanks, Gabrielle. Welcome back from the break. I'm going to talk to you about credit at PayPal. So as my colleagues described, PayPal is providing the leading experiences that are driving engagement with both consumers and merchants. And like all the great products and experiences that you heard about before the break, credit is yet another example of leveraging both sides of this incredibly powerful network that Dan described.

So credit is a core capability that differentiates PayPal from rival payment processors and drives greater engagement for both consumers and merchants. And much like John talked about how he and his team at Zoom are thinking differently about remittance, we are similarly thinking differently about credit. We have a unique opportunity at PayPal to personalize and simplify and demystify something that is inherently complex, confusing and very impersonal today. And that's the way that we think differently about credit. We are not in the credit business to drive traditional credit economics.

We're doing this to add value to our customers by making credit simpler, safer and smarter. So let me show you how. Question I get oftentimes first from people is what exactly is credit at PayPal? Credit at PayPal today is primarily 3 products. The first is PayPal Credit.

It's an online line of credit provided mostly through PayPal merchants as a way to allow their customers to pay over time for their purchases with PayPal. The second is a credit card that we provide to consumers in partnership with Synchrony. And the 3rd, PayPal Working Capital is a business loan that we provide to PayPal's small and medium sized sellers who have an urgent need for capital to grow their business that they're not getting effectively or efficiently from banks or other lending providers today. So that helps you understand what credit is at PayPal. And maybe the only question I get more frequently than what exactly is credit at PayPal is, tell me why exactly PayPal is in the credit business.

So let me start answering that question by telling you why PayPal is not in the credit business. PayPal is not in the credit business for the sake of credit economics. PayPal is not in the credit business to drive interest and fees, which is the model for most players in the traditional credit business. We're in the credit business because we see a unique opportunity, as Dan described, to democratize the movement and management of money of which credit is a key part. And that opportunity is so unique that we think that we can provide compelling examples of providing simpler, safer and smarter ways for customers to access credit, both consumers and merchants.

So why is it that credit is so strategic to PayPal if not for credit economics? It's primarily for three reasons. It differentiates through credit, we can differentiate PayPal from rival payment processors. Credit can also drive engagement for consumers and drive engagement for merchants in this incredibly powerful 2 sided network that Dan and Bill and my other colleagues described prior to break. So let me give a few examples for the first one.

What exactly do I mean by credit helping to differentiate PayPal from rival payment processors? Credit is increasingly the hook that gets our merchant customers in the door at PayPal because merchants know that by offering PayPal Credit, they can actually drive incremental sales and grow their business. That's probably not really surprising. What might be more surprising than that is the value of our business lending product to our smaller and medium sized merchants and to small and medium sized merchants in general. So fully 1 third of non PayPal small and medium sized merchants tell us that they would switch their payment processing business today to PayPal solely to get access to PayPal Working Capital.

So it gives you some idea of the value of that product in the landscape today. And it helps to illustrate what I mean by differentiating, using credit to help to differentiate PayPal from rival payment processors. In addition to differentiating, credit is also a powerful lever to drive engagement by consumer PayPal's consumer customers on the PayPal network. I'll give you a couple of examples to help illustrate what I mean by that. New PayPal customers who adopt Credit spend twice as much on the PayPal network as new PayPal customers who don't adopt one of our credit offerings.

And PayPal customers who adopt credit transacted 73% more merchants in the PayPal network than PayPal customers who do not adopt one of our credit offerings. And this is not true just for PayPal Credit. It's also true for the credit card product that I mentioned earlier that we provide in partnership with Synchrony. So what we've seen is that when a PayPal customer adopts either PayPal Credit or the PayPal Credit Card, their total purchase volume with PayPal goes up by more than 35% subsequent to that adoption. So hopefully, that gives you some idea, a couple of examples that help to crystallize what I mean by using credit as a lever to drive engagement for our consumers in the PayPal network.

And the third reason why credit is so strategic to PayPal is because just like driving engagement on the consumer side, we see that credit also drives engagement on the merchant side, right? It's because we're providing those really unique, really different experiences with credit through merchants that what we're seeing is merchants who offer PayPal credit on their stores see sales go up as measured by TPV by 20% or 30%. Similarly, when we provide PayPal Working Capital, that business loan product to our small and medium sized merchants, We see that a merchant who adopt PayPal merchant who adopts that PayPal Working Capital product has their attrition cut literally in half. It's not high to begin with. Only about 6% of our small, medium sized merchants end up leaving us on an annual basis.

That attrition rate is cut in half when they adopt PayPal Working Capital. And we see that customers who adopt that PayPal Working Capital product, a full 90% of them reapply and take a subsequent PayPal working capital product after paying down their first loan. So hopefully that gives you an idea of what I mean by driving engagement for both consumers and merchants in this incredibly powerful 2 sided network that you're hearing so much about this morning. So you've seen that PayPal Credit has grown impressively. And I think this is evidence to support how much these credit solutions and offerings that we're offering that we're providing to PayPal customers are resonating with PayPal consumers and merchant customers.

The numbers on this chart represent 33% CAGR since PayPal bought bill me later in 2,008. So I think that provides evidence of the way that these credit solutions are resonating with PayPal's consumer and merchant customers. And for the reasons that I described earlier and the way we're thinking differently about credit and the credit business model, you can imagine that we are as excited as ever about continuing this great growth story. The prospects to do that in the way that, as Dan and Bill and my other colleagues described, helps to democratize money and think very differently about credit are immense. But I also want to put this in some perspective because it's not it hasn't been that long since 2,008 and 2,009 and the credit crisis that we all remember well.

And I want to allay some of the concerns that I've heard about credit's growth relative to PayPal. This is a credit business. And 1st and foremost, we are going to grow this business responsibly and in a way that's measured. It's the most important thing to take away when you talk about in any way, shape or form, credit's growth at PayPal. But I also want to put it in context.

The credit business today at PayPal is less than 10% of PayPal's revenue. At current rates of growth, it would be at least another decade before the PayPal Credit business was 20% even of PayPal's revenue. And increasingly going forward, we're funding the Credit business to generate all of that great ecosystem goodness that I described before in ways that are increasingly asset light. So we're going to continue to use a mix of capital from both internal and external sources. This started in 2014 with changing our partner bank and having our partner bank participate in some of the receivables.

Last year, in Q2 of last year, we did nearly $0.75 billion participation interest with a couple of investors. And most recently in the Q2, we announced the use of our FBO balances to fund some of our credit growth in Europe, our European credit growth. So I'll give you some example of the things that we're doing to increasingly fund that credit growth in a way that's asset light that's off of our balance sheet. But in addition to diversifying our funding sources in that way, the thing that I'm the most excited about in terms of growing credit in a way that's asset light is what we can do through partners. What I'm talking about here are the kind of innovative partnership arrangements like what we've done with Synchrony that allow us to focus on the things that differentiate us the most.

One of the most unique differentiators we have at PayPal is the data that we have about our customers and the risk management capabilities that Dan referenced earlier this morning. When you combine that with the PayPal brand, the trusted brand that we have with our customers and the digital and mobile experiences that we're designing, they can integrate a simpler, safer, smarter way to think about credit into an integrated seamless PayPal experience for merchants and consumers. That's incredibly valuable to partners like Synchrony, like other financial institutions that have balance sheet and capabilities that we don't need to replicate by building in house. So by thinking differently about partnerships in that way, we get the best of both worlds. And I think one of the biggest, if not the biggest

Speaker 11

game changing differentiator of all

Speaker 13

is what we can do with our data, what we can observe about the way customers behave with us through their interactions at PayPal on both the consumer and the merchant side, and what they're willing to share with us because of that trusted relationship, because of those magical moments that Bill described. Our ability to take that data and turn that into real intelligence and the assessment of our customers' risk is I think one of the biggest game changer opportunities that touches every part of what we want to do in continuing to provide different experiences that democratize the management and movement of money at PayPal and particularly through credit. So when Bill talks about the secret sauce of Venmo being the magical experiences, right, The secret sauce when we talk about credit is really the ability to use our data and our risk capabilities. Turbocharged by partnering with financial institutions that covet that. So no better transition when we're talking about that secret sauce than to my colleague and great friend who really is one of the very best minds in the business when it comes to risk management and the use of data that I'm describing.

So to hear more about that, let me turn it over to my colleague and good friend, Tomer Burrell.

Speaker 14

Thank you, Steve. I guess after this we could just skip my session and move on to save some time. So as Steve pointed out, it is PayPal's unique capabilities in risk management that make it possible for us to offer to our customers, merchants and consumers unparalleled credit products. And in that sense, credit is no different than the rest of our business. You may think about risk management as merely managing losses.

In fact, for us, as Steve said already, risk is the secret sauce that enables us to grow our business sustainably, to serve our customers as true customer champions, while taking risks nobody else can take. Risk is at the core of our value proposition. 1st and foremost, it is what makes our ecosystem safe. It is what makes our customers trust us with their money, with their financial and personal details and trust each other. And indeed, PayPal has been repeatedly regarded as one of the most trusted brands in the payments industry.

At the same time, robust risk management is what enables us to make it easy for our customers to use us. Bill Reddy mentioned earlier this morning, one touch, essentially the ability of customers to use our product without logging in, without username and password. That relies on robust risk management. Another example is the onboarding of new customers. The sign up process in PayPal is very swift, easy, you just feed in a few simple details and most importantly, you can transact immediately afterwards with no delay, sell stuff, buy stuff, send money.

Once again, that relies on robust risk management. And we support these core tenants of our value proposition, trust and ease of use, while maintaining loss levels of between 27 31 basis points of our total payment volume and that figure combines losses associated with both the credit and payments products. We believe these are among the lowest loss levels in the comparable industry. Of course, reducing losses in itself is easy if you don't care about the impact on good customers. And we certainly do care and care a lot.

We dedicate most of our energy and resources into reducing the impact on good customers, into increasing the accuracy of our risk models and decisions. And we have reached recently the best false positive ratios for our risk decisions in our history. Once again, we believe it's among the best in the industry. This is not to say that we don't make mistakes. We review, assess and make decisions on 15,000,000 transactions per day, make all these decisions instantaneously,

Speaker 2

and we

Speaker 14

do make mistakes, making risk decisions that impact good customers or not preventing fraud from happening to them. Unlike other providers of digital payment services, we view the experience of customers when they go through such a bad event as core to our responsibility, as core to the overall customer experience that we owe them. We have one of the most expansive protection policies in the industry, protecting both buyers and sellers from the financial losses associated with bad events. And we complement this policy with the 8,000 service professionals that we have available worldwide, 20 fourseven, that are there to handhold customers when they go through these bad events and make sure that the experience is right, that they're not only made whole but also get the right treatment. So what are what are the things that make it possible for us to get to these outcomes?

What are the differentiators of PayPal Risk Management that bring us to this balance of flow losses, high accuracy, best customer experience, sustainable growth. The first thing I'll mention is our platform. Unlike most financial services companies, we have built our own in house end to end platform for risk management. From data processing all the way to decisioning, including data sciences, analytics, tools, everything in house. Initially, we did that out of necessity.

There was just no platform that was a good fit to what we do in PayPal out there. But over the years, this has become a true source of competitive advantage for us because this platform allows for unprecedented level of customization, customization of our risk decisions to our customers, to our global footprint, to our unique products. And fed into this platform that we've built, we have a data set that is not only massive, but also exceptionally rich. We have the data generated by the 15,000,000 transactions per day that the 184,000,000 active accounts generate. Of course, we have the whole history of data including those by inactive accounts that we have in our on our file.

We collect data from a very diverse geography, the 200 plus markets that we operate in. We collect data on both sides of the transaction, being a 2 sided network, from consumers and sellers, from senders and receivers of money. And the type of data that we collect is very diverse. It's not only what we call offline data, the data that the user fed to us, the name, the address, the phone, etcetera. It's also many, many types of online data elements, many of which you think about or wouldn't think about.

Of course, the simple things like IP address, but also things around browser type, browser language and the mobile space device, device type, location, etcetera, a long, long, long list. And this rate rich data set allows us to get to the accuracy levels that we aspire to using this unique platform that we have. Another thing that these two things, the platform and the data combined allow us is to attract the best data scientists out there because this combination, a platform that is really great to use, a rich data set and a place where they can really generate significant impact on the business is a truly unique combination. And we were able we are able to have built truly a state of the art data sciences practice in PayPal that leverages any technique that is out there in the big data space, forest management and driving this accuracy through continuous innovation. This is why other financial services companies still typically use traditional statistical modeling, logistic regression, etcetera.

So it makes a big difference. And even that is not sufficient for us. We strive for accuracy that we believe can be achieved only by complementing the insights that big data generates, big data crunching that generates what we call top down, complementing it by human insights. At the end of the day, we're talking about human behavior and humans are still best equipped to get to the right human insights about the behavior of others. So we dedicate a lot of effort into what we call a story based approach to get the highest level of accuracy.

I'll try and illustrate this point through an example. So let's say we have Dan here with an American account in good standing still at this moment, and we have a transaction attempt from Dan's account coming from Bangkok from an IP range in Bangkok, Thailand. And we need to make a instantaneous decision what to do with this transaction. Many financial services companies would either decline this transaction altogether because it's too high risk, it may not be Dan, or challenge Dan to prove it to us that this is indeed Dan, either by texting him. Well, his mobile phone may or may not accept texts in Thailand or by calling him And this could be in the middle of the night, not great experience for Dan.

What big data allows us is to leverage, first of all, the full account history making this decision. For example, we can find that 3 years ago, Dan made a successful transaction from that same IP range from Thailand. Well, it means as he probably visited there in the past, the transaction is far less risky. Or we could look at the whole data that we hold. For example, we could find out from that from that IP range, we have many, many foreigners making successful transactions.

This probably means this is a hotel in Bangkok. So again, the riskiness of the transaction goes down. But we nail it through the human insight around how DAN would behave leading to this transaction attempt. For example, we could find out that we would look and to see whether he was actually logging in to his PayPal app while staying in the San Francisco airport or any other airport a few days earlier. Well, that signifies the fact that he actually traveled.

Or we would look for reservations that he made in the last 3 months if we find a reservation to a hotel in Thailand. Once again, this proves that this is indeed Dan. So to summarize, we have a unique combination of a rich and massive data set being used on a proprietary end to end platform and a very and a top notch data sciences practice, this combination leads to risk management being a key competitive advantage for PayPal, allowing us to get financial leverage, sustainable growth and most important, drive exceptional customer experience. And now back to Bill Reddy.

Speaker 3

All right. So really, really insightful how Tomer thinks about risk. And it really is a great enabler of the things that we do here. So many people think about risk as sort of defense systems. And it's offense here too, right, that Tomer mentioned one touch and all these great new experiences that we're doing is because we have these great risk systems that let us authenticate users in ways that others couldn't dream of, that is such a great enabler for us.

And as we talk about tokenization, sort of new buzzword in the industry, which interestingly is quite an old concept. PayPal has been tokenizing instruments since literally its inception almost. In fact, PayPal has more than a 1,000,000,000 tokenized financial instruments on file, going all the way back to like starting with the 1st financial instrument being tokenized in 1999. So this concept has been around for quite a long time. And the reason it's become topic of conversation of late is that others are now starting to say, oh, we could do some things with tokenization, too, and welcome to the party.

It's great. Like there's a lot of interesting things that can be enabled with tokenization. At the same time, it's really important that you think about, well, what are all the things that go around that? Because at the end of the day, when you think about what is tokenization? At its most fundamental level, like you all can pull out the cards in your wallet and see the 16 digit number on the front of your card.

At the most fundamental level, a token is just another 16 digit number, just like the one on your card, that is of limited use. And there's a couple of other things that go with the cryptograms and these kinds of things that help to secure it. But really, it's around a limited use representation of the financial instruments you already had. This concept has been around for a long time. But as you now have others starting to participate, it opens up some opportunities.

And so while tokenization has been a core of how PayPal has delivered value for many, many years, in terms of how we make it so that people can shop without sharing, that we tokenize those transactions so that the people aren't sharing underlying financial instruments. As others now participate in this, it opens up great opportunities that you can think about that as ways that we will bring new experiences to PayPal. How can we think about PayPal moving into the store? How can we think about PayPal being accepted at merchants where PayPal is not accepted today? Network level tokens and these types of things open up those opportunities.

But importantly, what doesn't it do? And so talking about this on the heels of what Tomer shared with risk, as tokenization first came out and you had many players starting to experiment with tokenization, it's not a silver bullet. And in fact, many of the first attempts at using tokenization, particularly recently, they actually became on ramps for fraudsters that, okay, yes, it was secure, but if you had a stolen card, oh, great, you didn't need to go print a physical card now. You just go use a tokenized representation of that. And actually, lots of industry reports around this kind of stuff that it became on ramp for fraudsters.

And so I mentioned that to say the things you wrap around are really important. And that's where you look at the experiences that you can wrap around tokenization. And PayPal is still quite unique in the 2 sided network, the risk capabilities we have, the experiences we can light up. And tokenization has always been at our core. It's a core competency for us.

But as we see others start to participate there, it really is a fantastic thing because it actually opens up experiences that we can provide that are enabled by that tokenization, but that others would have a really hard time providing because they don't have the 2 sided global network or the inherent risk capabilities of those types of things. And so a few examples of that, you have we talked about Pay with Venmo before, that's running on top of network level tokenization. You look at some of the partnerships that we have, we recently announced working inside of the Vodafone wallet in Europe. And that's powered by PayPal, also leveraging Visa tokens, right? And so there's an example of how you look at onboarding experiences where PayPal is solving the ease of use for the onboarding, solving risk and fraud and those kinds of things of how these things come on.

But a Visa token allowing for that transaction to happen at many merchant locations. So that's an example of how it's a useful tool, particularly when embedded in the 2 sided network and the broader set of capabilities that PayPal has. And in fact, it's opening up more and more partnerships for us and removing conflict in a lot of ways. When you think about the other players in the ecosystem, we've talked a lot about how we partner with others. But when you think about card networks and issuers and acquirers and the other participants in this ecosystem, tokens actually give us a common way to interact with many of those players.

And we've been great partners with many of those players up to this point, but it gives us even more ways to work with those players and to invite them into the experiences that we're creating. So removes a lot of friction in that way and opens up things like the Vodafone experience. We'll come back and talk more about what we're doing with Facebook and Pinterest and some of the others that are out there. We're taking our own tokenization services and leveraging other token services that are coming in to really light up great, great new experiences. And it's really, really important because we talked about commerce moving into new context, and we think that this is a really important part of how PayPal enables many of these new experiences that will happen in new contexts.

It's another arrow in the quiver for how we can help a consumer and a merchant meet one another in an entirely new context and have a great transaction, a low friction transaction, but it's safe and secure because of all the other things we can wrap around it. So with that, I'm going to transition over to Juan Benitez, GM and CTO of Braintree to talk more about the evolution of commerce. Thanks, Ron.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. Well, myself and the entire Braintree team couldn't be more excited to be participating today and with our mission here at PayPal and also with the exciting mission we have supporting all the merchants that we have on our platform. It's especially exciting in a time when there is so much innovation happening in the space. And frankly, the rate of innovation is increasing every single day. We saw this slide earlier, and Bill was just talking about all the new contexts that are happening.

We spent a lot of time today talking about how big a shift mobile has been in the last 3, 5, 7 years. Well, there's another one coming, and that's that one here for 2016 that's evolving very rapidly. And this is social and new context in commerce in what we call contextual commerce. We think it will have the same type of impact and hopefully help drive a lot of the innovation and hopefully help drive a lot of the innovation that our partners and merchants and consumers will enjoy in all this. But before we talk about some of the platforms and things we're doing, let's take a step back and really talk about what is contextual commerce and what does it mean.

So today, traditionally, merchants will engage, when a discovery process and advertisement process that many of you will be familiar with. We all see it and click on ads every day. So offers are out there. Products are out there. They're on search sites.

They're on blog sites. There's display ads. But when a consumer is on a platform such as one of those sites or social networking site, and they want to transact on an offer they see and purchase something they see, the purchase process gets shoved behind a few interactions, clicking on that link, a redirect to some other site, and hopefully, fingers crossed, good deep linking to actually land you on the product that you were hoping to actually engage with and purchase. Then the whole purchase process starts. So in a world where transactions are becoming time is more precious, Transactions are more complicated.

We're all looking for fast action on our mobile devices, heading to meetings and from a train. We've had this process there that just really may not need to be there anymore. And that's really what we see evolving, where this notion of redirecting off of a place where consumers are spending their time and then going to the merchant site to actually purchase the product or the service or transact, that's no longer going to be necessary in the years ahead. Those transactions will occur directly wherever the consumer is spending that time, whether it's a blog site or a social site, a messaging platform, a search results page. We're very convinced that this is the future wave of innovation that's coming in commerce.

And many of our partners and many significant players in the ecosystem are also innovating around this in the prior few months in this year. This is one of the few cases where I think the innovation will happen so quickly because every single participant in this ecosystem benefits. If this works and the consumer no longer has to be redirected and hopefully deep linked to the right product, the consumer wins with a faster, easier purchase process that we're all looking for. The merchant also wins. No longer do I have to think about how to pull people to my site or to my app to see my products.

I have the ability to actually have my product visible and actionable on totally different sites. I've like extended my storefront. I've extended my website or app to where consumers are spending their time. That's really exciting. I don't have to worry about just getting clicks anymore.

I'm actually engaged and integrated into these platforms. And finally, for those platforms and search result pages and messaging sites and blogs, they don't want all their customers that they've worked hard to acquire just redirecting to other places and losing engagement with them. They want them to stay right where they are, right on their platform. So all three of these players, the consumer, the merchant and the platform where the consumer is spending their time, generally usually an advertising platform, has a lot to gain in all this innovation that's happening. And we think that will help fuel faster innovation since they're all aligned and will hopefully win in this process.

So how do we make some of these things happen? It's very early days. But we're building a set of different tools across both the Braintree platform and core aspects of the PayPal stack to ensure that we can help fuel these experiences. For us, retailer tools is a big part of that. And so we're thinking across the different spectrum of constituencies here.

With 14,000,000 merchants globally, we have a great opportunity to provide tools that will be very differentiated and that will help democratize access to these amazing contextual experiences for small retailers around the world. And that would be highly beneficial to them growing their businesses. And it's also a deeper way for us to engage with them, not just payments and all the things we can do today for them that you've heard today, but also helping them get more orders, more engagement, more even more consumer activity than we can bring them today. On the platform side, we can do really, really powerful things that are pretty unique in the industry in terms of what we can do to fuel these experiences in some of the most powerful ways. Some of you would see some demos today out in the hallway, and we'll show you some examples here of what we can do with these capabilities.

And all that is built on the foundation that we have across the technology tools we have here at PayPal, including tokenization that Bill just talked about. And those tools also help us make sure that for all this goodness we're giving to on the merchant side and to these platforms, we can also make sure the consumers have a great purchasing experience, including paying with PayPal and all these contextual experiences, even if the merchant whose product is on that site does not accept PayPal. For our retailer tools, we have basically built a conduit, if you will, that will connect up with wherever the small retailer is managing their current products or goods. And we'll make it very easy for them to continue to manage there but make those products available to be sold, in other forms and other new contexts that they're not currently in. This is where we help them reach new consumers through a variety of different new media.

Here are some examples. So today we have the capability through what we launched with PayPal Commerce, which was a follow on from the acquisition of Modus that we did last year, to let small retailers have access to create buy buttons that could be used in websites, in mobile app experiences, or in native apps themselves in addition to mobile web. And they can have their products be able to be immediately actionable and bought within any of those contexts. This last one is one that I find especially exciting as well. We all have tons and tons of email offers.

It's still one of the dominant ways of engaging between merchant consumers today. We all have dozens of these offers in our inbox right now and probably 1,000 more in various spam folders. But there are many that we all want to action on. But yet you have to click on the link, be redirected, go to a site and then begin the purchase process. It would be much more compelling.

And as a consumer, I also want to be able to purchase directly from the email. Let me just buy that product. I want to go do it. Make it easier. We have the tools to make that happen, an immediate purchase process immediately actionable from clicking the link in the email.

We'll also be investing in what we call our channel tools and APIs, making it so that the products that merchants want to get out to these sites can be easily exposed across a variety of different platforms, mobile and otherwise, because those platforms want to have access to these products to have that stronger engagement with their network as well than consumers on their site. So across those retailer tools, we can also do really exciting things with significant platforms. And I'll talk about 2 examples. The first is what we did last year with Pinterest, a site that garners tremendous amount of engagement and interest from consumers browsing products and goods. Previously, you used to have to be able to redirect, like we talked about, onto some other site.

Well, with the announcement last year of Pinterest buyable pins, consumers can transact immediately on the goods that merchants make available on Pinterest site directly. When that launched, our capabilities in the Braintree platform allowed us to support 4 of the 5 merchants that went live with Bible pins, including Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, which we're very happy to engage in. But there are also new emerging examples, and messaging is a very big part of that. So today, more than 900,000,000 consumers and 50,000,000 merchants engage on Facebook Messenger. A tremendous amount of engagement in commerce is happening on this platform.

And last December, one of the most interesting experiences we've recently seen came live in Facebook Messenger, where you're able to directly book an Uber ride directly from Facebook Messenger without leaving the Facebook Messenger experience, all driven on contextual input about the conversation that was happening. So let me give you an example of that. And let's play the

Speaker 3

video so you can see it.

Speaker 4

So everything you're seeing here is happening directly within Facebook Messenger. We're a platform of Facebook size and of course, of oversize in their global reach, both want to connect in new ways to have new utility to each of their customers. So highly integrated experience, all directly there within Facebook Messenger, back from Uber. The most innovation and This is still, as exciting as that is, very early days. There's lots of innovation to come.

And our platforms and investments, we hope, will help us be a significant participant in and help enable consumers to pay with PayPal or whatever is the best way to pay, merchants to be able to participate no matter what size of merchant you are, and all those platforms to have really successful experiences on their platforms and the engagement that

Speaker 12

that will drive.

Speaker 4

So thank you all very much. With that, I'll hand back over to Bill to talk about more of our partnerships.

Speaker 3

All right. So we will talk a little bit about how we innovate at global scale. And we're going to talk through some of our platforms, those kinds of things. Bear with me. I'm not going to nerd out on you too much, but it's really important in terms of how we go deliver really rapid iteration as we approach a very complex, very rapidly evolving landscape?

And how do we work with the many, many different partners that are also participating in that rapidly evolving landscape? So first of all, when you think about the platform that we offer, we've talked about several of these components today around, it's not just sort of core payment services, it's risk and identity and credit and all these things we wrap around those services that are part of how we bring the 2 sided network together, how we enable transactions that nobody else could, how we enable that seamless experience that Juan showed that you can be inside of Facebook Messenger and call an Uber, have the payment happen and never leave the Messenger app, but all the payment information just transacted seamlessly, securely. It's this kind of platform that lets us go enable those things, lets us go do things like one touch at global scale or roll out a new consumer app to 140 plus markets in a single day. It's because of the integrated platform across all these things we can do that. And as we have re architected that platform over the last several years, and PayPal in the world of financial services, PayPal is in its infancy.

In the world of technology companies, PayPal has been around for 16 plus years. And so you have some replatforming to do. And so we've talked about that publicly. We've been through a lot of that replatforming, but we've moved to great developer experiences. We've moved to service oriented architecture.

We've moved to agile software development. All these things that make it so that as we have these great capabilities and this great two sided network, we can iterate really, really quickly at pace that's very hard for others to match. In fact, just think about the scale of those platforms and the things that we can do and what we're bringing to bear, just a few stats for you. We've talked about our overall sort of payment volume, things like that, 1,430,000,000 payments just in Q4 of last year. We our peak second, we're doing over 1,000 payments a second in our peak second, right?

You think about just the sheer magnitude of that and how much of the world's e commerce is happening when every single second that goes by you're powering 1,000 transactions. Underneath all that, 4,700,000,000,000 database calls that happened from that 2,700 network devices. Data, we talked about how we're moving into these contextually driven experiences and how important data is to make sure it's the 18 terabytes of data processed daily. All 18 terabytes of data processed daily, all this around where these consumers transacting from. Tomer gave you this great example of how do we know that somebody is really transacting from Bangkok or not?

Where are all the places they've been? Where have they log in? It's the 18 terabytes of data that we see daily that feeds into this great engine that lets us go do decisioning across these things. And so as you think about that scale, you would say, well, hey, most other players that operate at that scale, you think about the traditional Financial Services industry, you're talking about quarterly release cycles, right, that code pushes happen once a quarter, maybe once a month. In Q4, we did 20,000 plus code deployments in Q4 in a single quarter.

We have developers deploying code multiple times a day. So when you think about this amazing two sided network of consumers and merchants around the world, the rapid iteration that it takes to go evolve the experiences that they're demanding as they move to mobile as primary computing device, we get many, many more at bats than others, right? And this is an important concept. You think in baseball, if you hit 3 times and strike out 7, you're in the Hall of Fame, right? 3 out of 10, Hall of Fame.

In the world of building mobile experiences and venture capital, you hit 1 out of 10, you're in the Hall of Fame. So really getting a lot of at bats matters a lot. Figuring out what are those right customer interactions, you need many, many, many iterations. So when we deploy 20,000 times in a quarter, many, many times a day, we have a far greater number of at bats than when you think about legacy financial infrastructure that deploys once a quarter, once a month. You're just not getting enough at bats to find those right experiences.

So that is structural advantage relative to what you see in legacy sort of financial services world. And to be able to go iterate quickly on both sides of the network that because we can control the experiences on both sides, we get those at bats without having to go ask consumers to go do work, without having to ask merchants to go do work. We're constantly running multiple tests simultaneously without having to ask people to do different integrations or those kinds of things. So we get just many, many, many more at bats. And as we're going through a rapid evolution in the landscape, it's going to take many at bats to figure that out, and we just get far more of them because of the way that we've architected, because we've moved to agile style software development, because we have re architected our platforms in a way that we can deploy globally all at once.

That's a real, real structural advantage that lets us take our 2 sided network and bring that to bear in ways that others just never could. So what's that lead to? As we think about the landscape and the other participants, there's a reason that you're seeing us really, really partnering with some of the leading players in the space, right? Big difference between sort of the PayPal today versus how you would have thought about PayPal in the past that PayPal has from its inception had a lot of the end to end and be able to see the transaction the whole way through. But for a lot of that was sort of closed, right?

It wasn't opened up to partners necessarily. It's opened up to consumers. It's opened up to merchants, but maybe not as much to partners. And we've started to open that up for the service oriented architecture and things like that, that we have moved to. It's not just for internal consumption.

It's making it so that we can work with many, many other partners in the ecosystem. So I mentioned the Vodafone example earlier, where for tap to pay transactions on Vodafone, the Vodafone wallet, PayPal powering that, making it seamless to sign up for that and then partnering with Visa for the tokenization services underneath. We see similar things across Juan brought up one of the examples of Facebook, but we're partnering with Facebook across many experiences. Apple and Google, I mentioned that both of those, we're powering approximately half or more of the apps that launch of Apple Pay and Android Pay, which by the way Google at IO this morning talked about launching in the U. K.

Many of those experiences for Google for Android Pay's launch in the U. K. Running on top of our Braintree platform, things like HotelTonight and YPlan, some of the marquee apps there running on the Braintree platform. And so along with those services is also the fact that we are recently added into Google Play as a payment method. Alibaba, that we've recently started to work with, pilot programs still for B2B, but starting to work with many, many other partners in the space.

And the reason we're doing so is that there are going to be many participants as you have this sort of rewiring of commerce, but those participants are all looking and seeing that PayPal touches far more of the end to end than anybody else. And because we're willing to let others in, because we're willing to say, well, we'll power much of it, but we don't have to power all of it. We can partner with others for these things, enable great experiences. You're seeing many, many players wanting to work with us and build on our platform. And so it really brings me to sort of how do we think about where we go from here, right?

We've talked about Dan sort of set out the expansive vision for how we want to be the operating system for commerce for our merchants, how we want to be part of the daily life of our consumers and really sort of rethink financial services, democratize access to those things for billions of consumers, letting them fulfill hopes and dreams. And we see the beginnings of that. In some places, the most expansive elements of that vision were sort of in the earliest days with those, but we see the beginnings of that, like with Venmo where users are engaging daily. But across all that, as we think about this rewiring of commerce, this move to mobile, consumers really thinking about what do they want to use as part of how they acquire these different services, there's going to be many participants. There is no one player.

As much as we have touted how much we can bring to bear for consumers, for merchants, for the ecosystem, there are going to be many participants. But the thing that is true is that what makes PayPal really unique is the 2 sided network of consumers and merchants operating at scale globally with all the capabilities in between. And so what that lets us do is along with these many, many iterations that we talked about, we're not just iterating on our own. We're iterating with partners. And those partners that we're iterating with is some of the biggest names in tech, platform players that we've talked about, but it's also financial services players.

We think about issuers and networks and acquirers and others that we're bringing into this as well that it's great for all of us. Dan opened up with how much of the world still runs on cash. We all have that as a common enemy. And because we're opening up the platform and others are seeing that we can deliver these experiences in ways that no others can, we're seeing many, many more players in the ecosystem partnering with us, helping to iterate with us. And they're looking at saying they know they benefit from that because we're enabling transactions that nobody else could.

We're bringing incrementality to them as well. And we're helping them to participate in the way commerce gets rewired over the next several years. We're helping them to participate in the way consumers are going to rethink how they'll interact with financial services. So it's as much as we have amazing progress, we're still early days, and there's lots, lots more to go. But hopefully, we've conveyed some of why we think there are real structural elements that let us go compete and play in that area in ways that no others could, right?

And those are defensible structural advantages that are really, really hard to replicate. The 2 sided network, many players have tried to replicate. It's very, very hard to do. And by us being willing to partner with others and let others receive that benefit, we think that we are in a fantastic position to go build that mobile future with many, many other players in the ecosystem as part of that as well. So thank you all.

And with that, I'll turn it back over to John Rainey.

Speaker 12

Well, thank you all for being here and investing your time to hear about our story. It's I know we've gone through a lot of material. We're in the home stretch right now. Our goal with this Analyst Day has been to demonstrate to you that we're executing on our strategy and how we are transforming our company into becoming a customer champion. And you've heard this morning from the likes of Dan and Bill and others how we've positioned ourselves from a technology perspective to do that.

But we're also doing it from a financial perspective as well. And you'll hear more about that in the coming slides here. But it's important to note that with the strategy that we have, we can continue to drive the key financial metrics of revenue, EPS, free cash flow to continue to increase shareholder value. The theme throughout the day has been customer champion. And it's important to recognize that being a customer champion is truly at the heart of who we are.

And we are reinventing ourselves as a company right now to allow our customers to do what they want and when they want on PayPal. And our desire is to be at the very center of our customers' daily financial lives. But by the very same token, we are putting our customers at the center of everything that we do and all the decisions that we make. And that will allow us to be the world's leading open digital payments platform. But at the because it's a strategy that allows us to capture this enormous growth opportunity that you've heard about today.

Simply put, our powerful, 2 sided global platform makes our future as a customer champion possible from both a technology perspective as well as a financial one. And you've heard a lot about how we're driving this from a technology perspective. But from a financial perspective, it's fairly simple. Our scale allows us to grow our revenue at a lower overall marginal unit cost as we continue to expand relevance and ubiquity with our customers. Dan spoke at the very beginning about the opportunity that we have in front of us.

And that opportunity is underpinned by 2 massive and global trends that are taking place. The first is the mass adoption of mobile technology, the second being the digitization of money. And we firmly believe that we can play in and win this $100,000,000,000,000 digital commerce opportunity. To get there, we will leverage many of the assets you've already heard about today, 2 decades of experience in digital payments, our infrastructure, our technology and our innovation. As has been suggested earlier, we cut our teeth in this business by being a button on a website.

But we are so much more than that. We have a unique set of assets that singularly positions us to be able to take advantage of the tailwinds that I've described, the proliferation of mobile technology and the digitization of payments, so that we can transform the way that our customers move and manage money. But we're not stopping there. We will continue to add to our suite of products with other things that add value to customers and enable that vision of becoming a central part of their everyday life. You've heard today about our compelling merchant value proposition.

And when that's combined with the engaging consumer offering we have, we have a very powerful 2 sided network. And we combine that with best in class risk and data analytics with a robust and agile platform. And that allows us to offer truly differentiated products like OneTouch, contextual commerce and credit. And this is all strengthened by the power of our brand. We have 17 years of trust and engagement that we've developed with our customers.

And we are at scale in over 200 markets around the world. All of these together will help fuel our growth for years to come. PayPal is one of very few companies that have the size and scale that we do that also have the same growth profile that we do. And by virtually any measure up here, you can see that our growth has been impressive. We continue to add millions of customers each year.

And just as importantly, those customers are becoming more engaged as we see their level of engagement increase each quarter at double digit percentage rates. Those 2 combined result in the type of transaction growth and TPD growth that you see here, both of which are appreciably faster than the overall e commerce market. Strong customer metrics directly relate into strong financial metrics. And since our separation from eBay, in each of the three quarters that we've reported earnings, you've seen revenue growth in the 20% range. And because of the scale of our business and the efficiencies of our platform and the operating leverage, we've been able to grow EPS even faster than that.

And each successive quarter, we are generating more and more free cash flow, with free cash flow margins well in excess of 20%. And I want to be very clear about one point. And that's when we talk about being a customer champion, that is not incongruent in any way at all with creating shareholder value. In fact, we think that it's the very vehicle to increase our shareholder value. And these are the metrics that we are focused on as a management team: increasing revenue, increasing earnings per share, growing free cash flow, because those are the metrics which most closely tie to our value as a company.

I want to spend a moment here talking about the basic economics around being a customer champion. And these are very basic principles, but I think they bear discussing because it's a fundamental shift in what we've done historically. And I first should acknowledge that if we have a goal to increase our ubiquity and relevance with our customers, then it is absolutely imperative that we are more than an occasional purchase on a website. We need to be an everyday part of their financial lives. To do that, we have to offer PayPal as an option where they shop and buy things every single day.

That requires expanding into larger merchants. Larger merchants are going to drive a lot of volume, but they'll also benefit from volume based pricing. And this is going to cause our take rate, our unit revenue to decline from where it is today. And that's part of our strategy because that also drives much of the volume that we see in our business. And the result of 2 of those together generates a lot of revenue growth.

The key for us is our ability to grow, while still keeping our unit revenue costs growing at something less than I'm sorry, unit costs growing at something less than unit revenue. And the result of all of this is free cash flow and EPS continuing to grow to increase shareholder value. Dan talked earlier about the vision and the aspiration we have in terms of the number of transactions that we have today, 2x to 3x per month, and moving that to something like 2 to 3x per week. I won't belabor this point, but I want to point out at the very bottom of this graph, I think this is the salient point here, is that customer choice drives this. And very simply, by customer choice, we mean removing friction from the PayPal experience today to where our customers can do whatever they want, whenever they want with us.

We have very diversified assets that all have very strong discrete growth characteristics. And you've heard about that in the balance of the presentation today. But the important thing about this from an economic perspective is when all these assets are combined together, they act as accelerators in our business, creating what you hear us refer to as a flywheel like effect. If you look at products like Venmo and Zoom, they increase engagement with consumers. Credit is a great complementary product that increases our share.

You've got Braintree, where we have a greater share of checkout. And then we're expanding into new and different offerings that we don't have today in an entirely different context, like what Juan alluded to. The important point about this is that the value of all of these assets is far, far greater than simply the sum of their parts. And I want to spend a moment walking through the economics of the flywheel effect on some of these different components of our business. And I'll start with Braintree.

So as was discussed by my colleagues, Braintree is a very high growing part of our business, and it's generating a lot of our revenue growth as well. But part of the magic of Braintree, particularly from a CFO's perspective, is this flywheel like effect because we see that when we have 100% share of checkout with merchants, it gives us the ability to have the branded PayPal core as an option as well. And moreover, when we do that, we see an increase in that usage versus just a standalone merchant where we don't have 100% share of checkout. Let me orient you to this slide here real quickly. So on the left side, we've got the amount of revenue that we have from a merchant.

The right side is the value or the profit, if you will, from a merchant. And in each of these cases, we're comparing and contrasting simply the branded PayPal experience and product versus Braintree and the branded experience. And where we have Braintree capture 100% of the processing, we see a 20% flywheel effect on the branded business. The net result of all of this is that when Braintree is doing the processing for a merchant, we have 5 times as much revenue than we otherwise would and 2 to 3 times as much value. Credit is another part of our business.

And Steve covered this very well earlier. But it is truly a complementary product that we provide, very much for the flywheel type effect. It's been relatively constant at about 2% to 2.5% of our TPV over the last several years. And there's no reason necessarily to see that ratio change over time. We can accomplish the things that we want to with credit, with credit's percentage of our business being in that range.

Steve, again, covered a lot of this, but a couple of quick points. In addition to reducing card abandonment, seeing a higher level of engagement, we see 20% to 30% greater spend with credit customers. For customers that sign up with credit the first time, it's twice as much. And that's a very compelling value proposition to take to merchants. With our working capital product, we help our merchants grow.

That's good for them, and that's good for us. And because of that, we also see a dramatic reduction in churn. And Steve covered this, but I think this point is worth reemphasizing because there have been some that have speculated about our dependence on credit for revenue and operating income. And I want to dispel that notion again. PayPal credit for us today is less than 10% of our revenue.

And at our current growth rates, we don't expect that to be greater than 20% in the next decade. It's a very important point as we think about the durability and the quality of our earnings. One Touch is, I think, a fantastic example of the innovation of our business. And you've heard a lot today about the product features around that and what that does for us and how compelling that is for merchants. But to put some simple economics around this, what this means financially, we've got 22,000,000 users that have opted into OneTouch.

That's a relatively small proportion of our population today. But with those users that have adopted OneTouch, we see on average a 5% increase in the level of engagement. And if I just use simple math here for a second, that results in roughly 1.5 more transactions per account. I take that and I multiply it by our share of the average payment value. And the annualized benefit of those customers that have adopted OneTouch is $50,000,000 in incremental revenue.

And when you consider for a second that a large portion of the population has not adopted this yet, and there's the potential to increase that 5% engagement to something beyond that. You can see that that 50,000,000 can become a multiple of that over time. We have 1,000,000 merchants in 144 markets that have signed up for this. And perhaps the most compelling data point about OneTouch is the very last one in the bottom right here. OneTouch drives not only higher conversion, appreciably higher conversion for merchants.

And that's very compelling in terms of the value proposition. I think that there's probably no better example of the growth in the digitization of money than what we see in P2P. And Joe covered that very well earlier. But when you look at the average PayPal user versus a user that is heavily engaged in P2P, the number of transactions is 67% higher. But the more compelling point from a financial perspective is not up here.

When we look at the customer lifetime value of a P2P user versus the platform average, A P2P user is twice as valuable versus the platform average. And when you consider for a moment the potential of something like Venmo, where their user base today is already 4 times more engaged than the PayPal user base, you can see why we get excited about that and consider that to be a huge opportunity in terms of the growth of our business. So customer choice. So again, customer choice is allowing our customers to do what they want, when they want. And several of you have asked me questions about this in the past that, well, won't that mean that that will change your funding mix?

If the organic funding mix is something different than what you experienced today, won't that make your costs go up? And the answer is yes, that's entirely likely, all right? But I also think that just focus on that misses the more compelling point about why we're doing this, because there's a revenue side to the equation as well. We have seen that when we remove friction from the process for our customers, we have much higher customer activation, we have a much greater level of customer engagement, we have much less customer churn, all of those you can take together to a merchant, and that creates a very compelling value proposition to acquire more merchants. And very importantly, to the far right, this allows us to partner with other people in the ecosystem in ways that we've not been able to historically, because we can drive tremendous amounts of volumes to our partners.

So to bring this full circle, we've got a very complementary and compelling suite of products, and one that we will add to as we go forward, all again to get to a point where we can be at the center of our customers' daily financial lives. And as we do this, our platform becomes increasingly powerful. This is the opportunity to bend the curve here with what we're doing right now. And this depiction here is forward looking. You see our growth by the various components of our business.

But as we grow our merchant services with the likes of Braintree, as we expand the engagement of our P2P usage, as we expand mobile, We have the opportunity to double our payment volume from last year in just the next 4 years to $600,000,000,000 And that's something that this team is laser focused on achieving. So I want to transition for just a second to talk about some of the fundamental economics of our business. The graph in front of you shows 2 lines. 1 is our payment volume. The other is our take rate.

And you can see in the center of that graph where the two lines diverge. This is a direct result of the execution of the strategy that we're taking right now, all right? As we expand our product mix, and we expand into larger merchants, that drives a lot of that volume growth. But it also results in a take rate decline. But I want to be very, very clear about this one point.

Our take rate decline is not a result of a decline in like for like pricing. It is entirely a result of merchant mix, product mix and to a lesser extent foreign currency headwinds. And even despite this take rate decline, we were able to increase operating income 15% in this period of time. And part of that is because of the operating leverage that we have in the business. This is a similar graph, but this shows our volume related expenses and all of our other expenses expressed as a percentage of revenue.

And you can see intuitively, as our volume has grown, our volume related expenses have grown. But we've been able to offset that with the operating leverage we have in the business. And that's because a significant portion of those other operating expenses are fixed costs. This pie chart depicts the breakdown of our cost in that bucket. And roughly 75% of them are fixed in nature.

There is no need to grow those just because we are growing. We have the discretion to, but we don't have to. It's not required for our growth. And when you look at that in terms of our transaction costs, or our cost per transaction on the volume related expenses, that's declined from $0.72 to $0.70 But more compelling, more impressive is the non volume piece. That's gone from $0.89 to $0.78 a 12% decline over time.

The result of that is that allows us to generate operating and free cash flow margins consistently in the 20% range. Last year, we generated $1,800,000,000 in free cash flow, roughly $0.20 of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue that we've earned. This year, our expectation is to generate more than $2,100,000,000 in free cash flow. The important thing about that, though, is that allows us to reinvest in our business for growth, creating this virtuous cycle for growth. The blessing of being a large cash flow generator as well as having a strong balance sheet is it gives us the opportunity to allocate capital in a manner that can increase shareholder value.

And we've discussed in the past what our priorities are for capital allocation. But I think I can simplify it. Very simply, our priority is growth. And we want to grow our customers, and we want to grow that level of engagement. We can do that through organic investment.

We can also do that through acquisitions. But because of our balance sheet and our cash flow generation, we can also complement that with returning cash to shareholders. And we've demonstrated a lot of success in each of these areas. We've invested in our platform and in innovation like OneTouch. We've had successful acquisitions like Braintree, Venmo, Paydient and Zoom.

And in the Q1, when the stock market traded off, we repurchased almost $600,000,000 of cash, well below our intrinsic value. So this was the graph that we showed at the time of our spin with our medium term guidance. We suggested that TPV growth would grow in the mid-20s percent. And each quarter since our spin, we've exceeded that by a fair margin. That gives us and the management team even more confidence today in our ability to consistently generate revenue increases annually of 15% year after year.

We can keep our operating margins stable to growing. But I also want to be clear, we're not going to shy away from investing in the business, much like the example that we've done with Zoom in the last year. That is a good long term decision for us. We're not necessarily managing margin for the next quarter. And lastly, free cash flow can continue to grow in line with revenue, all of which will help to create the type of shareholder value increases that we expect.

And that is that's one point I want to really impress upon this team. As you have a management team here that is laser focused on increasing shareholder value, we want to continue to grow revenue. We're focused on high quality, consistent, durable earnings. With our cash flow generation, we can continue to invest for growth, and we'll allocate capital to maximize shareholder returns. So I want to close with this.

As you've heard today, PayPal is an open digital payments platform that's operating at scale on a global level. We have exceedingly strong tailwinds, and you've got a management team that's focused on delivering. And we have an enormous opportunity in front of us. And we believe firmly that PayPal is the company that is uniquely positioned to capture that opportunity. So with that, I'd like to ask Dan and Bill to join me back up here on stage, and we'll open this up to questions.

Speaker 1

Okay. So for Q and A, we're going to have 4 mic runners in the room. Raise your hand and they'll get to you. We'll call on you by panel number.

Speaker 2

Can I give you this? By panel

Speaker 12

number.

Speaker 15

Thanks. It's Jamie Freeman from Susquehanna. I was going to address the question to Juan, but I'll address it to you, Bill. With regard to embedded payments and what you call contextual commerce, are you expanding the payments pie there or you're just elevating Braintree's significance in the payment stack? Is the post contextual commerce bigger?

Or is it just more important for Braintree?

Speaker 3

I think for the contextual commerce experience as well as much of the other experiences we're talking about, we are growing the pie, right? And it's really been true it's true of contextual commerce. So you think about this that these if people are more likely to transact, we talk about that with one touch. When you increase conversion, these were lost sales, right? So you truly are growing the pie, not just for the payments ecosystem, but for merchants and satisfying consumers.

And so we're early with contextual commerce, but we think it is very much a pie growing kind of opportunity. But so much of the business, one touch or the way that we enable SMB small businesses to come online and sell around the world, these are all transactions or many of these transactions wouldn't have occurred otherwise. So there wasn't a way to get there. So much of the PayPal business is pie growing and new activity that wouldn't have otherwise occurred.

Speaker 15

And I just have one follow-up. Dan, with regard to the objective of going from expanding from twice a month to twice a week. So that's like 75 incremental transactions a year. How much of that 75 increment is face to face? And I realize the lines are blurring, but mobile face to face, however you want to define it, how much is that incremental to your market opportunity?

Speaker 2

Yes. We haven't broken out exactly as we go from 28 or so to 100 or so transactions exactly where each of those comes. What we do know is every single time somebody adds an incremental service, their amount of usage with us and their engagement grows dramatically. And so as you see from Joe's presentation, and John referenced this, when you just add P2P, you see an increased engagement of 57%. That to me is an amazing stat.

And we are adding more and more functionality and ubiquity, both in terms of how somebody can put cash and money onto the platform, how they can take that money off the platform and what they can do in between to manage it. And what I have seen in my history in financial services is every time you add a little bit to that, the actual it doesn't go up just by that little bit, the flywheel effect expands dramatically. And I've seen at other places that I've been where when you do this, the lifetime value of a customer can increase like 5 times from where it was before. So we are very focused on this in terms of just being more in the middle of how consumers manage and move their money. And that's going to be both money coming in, money going out in different contexts, including contextual as well as how they manage it in between.

We'll take 2.

Speaker 16

Thank you. Colin Sebastian from Robert Baird. First off, with respect to the large addressable market, dollars 100,000,000,000,000 and the blurring of the lines between online and offline, I wonder if you could put a finer point on the in store opportunity in terms of the pace of the rollouts, how quickly we should expect that to evolve? And then secondly, just interested in your higher level comments or whether you can envision a time when there might be a unified PayPal branded loyalty program, if you see any value in that over time?

Speaker 3

Yes. Sure. I'll take the first part of that around how long to get to in the store. We showed with mobile, for example, that many of the experiences we launched mobile, we launched our first mobile experiences in 2,006. And so for the 1st 4 or 5 years of that, mobile was less than 1% of PayPal's TPV.

Now it's a full of PayPal's TPV. Now it's a full 30% of our transactions. So you had a 4 or 5 year period there where we were iterating, the market was evolving, and it took a while before it really caught on. Once it did catch on, the 2 sided network, the things that we can bring to bear that others can't made it so that PayPal enables far more of that than just about anybody else in the industry. And I think with in store, you'll see a similar thing.

It's going to take a little while for that to catch on, right? We're sort of on that curve that we showed of sort of what mobile looked like back in 2 1006 and 2007, I think in stores are at a similar stage around mobile affecting in store, but you're starting to see the beginnings of those types of things, right? You think about the Starbucks app or the Subway app, other retailer driven apps that are really starting to get engagement in the store. And I think that you're now starting to see the beginnings of that. And so while it's going to take a while to play out, you're starting to have visibility into what's going to matter.

And the common points there are that if we can enable merchants and retailers to bring their value prop to life, to share their loyalty and their rewards and those types of things, you can get great engagement, but it's got to be more than just moving swipe to tab. Those have been sort of very slow to get going. But things like the Starbucks app or like the Subway app, you're bringing order ahead and loyalty and rewards and these kinds of things to bear. Consumers are willing to engage in that, and there's a lot more growth. But we think it's early innings, but with lots more potential to come in the future.

Speaker 2

Yes. Just to add on top of it, we're also doing this very, very differently than we did maybe 3, 4, 5 years ago. What we're building now is a platform that can be extended to any POS environment across any operating system. And what we're not trying to do is bespoke heavy development customization for every integration into a retailer. That's expensive.

It's you're trying to change a consumer behavior and it's a very high beta, whether it will be successful or not. And so what we want to really do on in store is naturally follow the consumer using mobile. And mobile really is the disruptive element here. So we were an online shop, and we started following the consumer using mobile. And now we have great share position in mobile transactions, and that's both in app and mobile web.

And then we're just going to follow them as they move mobile to in store. And so we've got with some of the larger merchants, some more we're working a much more fulsome cross context integration, but utilizing all elements of our platform. And that gets me to the second part of your question. We actually don't think there's a need for us to create our own rewards or loyalty program. I've seen that before as well.

It can seem initially attractive until you see the looming liabilities on your balance sheet as you start to pull that out. We have a great service. And what we want to basically do is enable merchants and tech companies and mobile carriers to create the value proposition, including rewards, right? And give their consumers a reason to use that platform. By the way, that gives us a cross merchant, cross tech company rewards platform that we're not funding, but is a part of our platform that enables our consumers.

I think that's just the smarter way for us to go.

Speaker 1

3 in the back.

Speaker 17

Thanks guys. It's Darrin Peller from Barclays. The information you shared with us is helpful today, but I think we were just looking for perhaps a bit more granularity. And want to touch first on Venmo, which I know is an area that could really enable some opportunity for incremental revenue, you talk about monetizing it. Instead of just telling us the volume, is there anything extra you could tell us about the number of users that are embedded in that 170,000,000 consumers?

And then how much overlap there is between your existing PayPal customer base that do or don't use Venmo today? Then maybe a little more color on timing of monetization?

Speaker 2

Why don't you start?

Speaker 3

I'll give so much of what you asked for, we don't break out, and I can't provide you exact answers to those things. What I will tell you is that the $1,000,000,000 in monthly volume flowing through Venmo, the user growth is meaningful, right? You don't get to $1,000,000,000 It's not sort of 100,000 people batting money back and forth to get to $1,000,000,000 a month. Like it's pretty substantial to be able to say that you're transacting levels that few other native apps in the world have seen. So it's meaningful growth, but we don't break it out.

And then in terms of the overlap, one of the things that we see with Venmo is that, of course, you're going to have some overlap with PayPal users. They're choosing to use Venmo plus they're choosing to use PayPal, just like with the other examples of multi app strategy that we presented, how many people use an Instagram app plus the Facebook app. There's going to be some to do that. But is it important that you have that user engaged in both those places because it brings even more value to the network? Certainly so, right?

And so while we don't break out specifics on those, you see some overlap. But it's also the case that with Venmo, you really think about Venmo as like capturing a demographic and being sort of a cultural phenomenon, right, in a way that few other applications have. And so there's certainly a lot of engagement there with users that may not have otherwise been engaged in our platform. And so there is certainly incrementality to that, that it's not just pure overlap between the 2. But even when it is overlap, there's value in us having the multiple touch points as we've hit sort of several times.

It just gives us more engagement from the users, gives us higher lifetime value. John took you through some of these stats on how much more valuable a customer is over Slack if it's engaged in P2P. And so even if that's through a complementary app to PayPal, we think there's still long term value in that. So I don't know, Dan or John, if you would add to that.

Speaker 2

I'll just add a little bit. First of all, we want to be very responsible with the information that we give you. We're in beta right now. It's still a reasonably small amount of merchants, and we just expanded to 1,000,000 Venmo users. We're looking forward to sharing that with you.

We've gotten some very interesting, very positive feedback from our early results on this that encourages us to roll out as rapidly as we possibly can around this. But until we have more, what I would call, sort of data that we can extrapolate against, really to share any of that with you right now would, as I mentioned to some people, might get you either too excited or it depends on how excited you've already been on this. So I think we'll just we'll wait until we have a little bit more data set and then we'll start to share that information. We absolutely believe that our Venmo base is very monetizable. It is an extremely engaged base.

But and we are going to add services beyond Pay with Venmo to the Venmo base as well. So we're quite excited about that. But just give us a little bit of time to have some meaningful data and information to share with you. And as soon as we feel that is, we will share it and look forward to it.

Speaker 1

We'll take 4.

Speaker 18

Great. Thanks. George Mihalos from Cowen. And again, guys, thanks for doing this today. Two quick questions.

Firstly, Dan, you talked about having penetrated about 50%, I think, of the Fortune 500 retailers. What are the gating factors to getting into the remaining 250% is there a handful of specific issues that you can call out? And then secondly, on the risk management side, the 30 basis points that you called out on both the transaction side and on the loan loss side, Just wondering if you can provide a little bit more color on what fraud is just specifically on the transaction side ex the credit business? Thank you.

Speaker 3

I'll take the first part of that around getting to the rest of the Internet Retailer 500. It's actually the case that PayPal is accepted on approximately 75% of the Internet Retailer 500 in terms of PayPal acceptance overall. For one touch, it's at 50% of the Internet Retailer 500 here in the U. S. Just to reconcile those 2.

So for PayPal overall, we're at 75% today. So we have great distribution amongst really large retailers as well as fantastic strength with small businesses where we have 1,000,000 plus merchants that really get you into middle market and long tail small businesses. And for one touch getting from the Internet Retailer 500 that we have today to the rest, you know, much of this is around, you know, the places where we can directly control experience versus the places where we're partnering. But across all those, we're bringing merchants onto OneTouch as well as the PayPal platform overall quite quickly, right? So we see that expanding as the value prop expands around these things and we're solving mobile conversion, where we're seeing merchant growth on the platform across segments, whether it's large retailers all the way down to small businesses and 75% of the Internet Retailer 500 accepting PayPal today, we've come a long way in that, and we expect that over time we'll get to even more of those.

Speaker 2

I'd also say, we're taking a lot of our legacy flows and moving them on to our newest flows. As soon as they come on to our newest flows, those merchants automatically move into OneTouch. And we'll be doing that over the course of the year. And that's why we said in the last earnings call that we anticipate that the number of One Touch merchants will grow from 1,000,000 or so today to well over 2,000,000 by the end of the year. And that part of that will be some of those in the IR 500 as well.

So, Tomer, did you want to yes, Tomer, you're on the spot here. Use the mic, Tomer. Okay.

Speaker 14

So second question, fraud is clearly the biggest financial threat that we face, the biggest risk that we face, that has been the case since the beginning of PayPal. It's also where we have the most experience in managing it effectively. But it's a big chunk of what we manage and it's also a big chunk of the loss that we experience. That's I think that's what I can say.

Speaker 2

Yes, it's right.

Speaker 1

We'll take one.

Speaker 19

Hi, it's Brian Keane, Deutsche Bank. Just had a couple of quick questions on OneTouch. How fast can we get that consumer adoption up $22,000,000 when we think about the $170,000,000 What's the some of the negating factors there? And then secondly on Venmo, can we turn on a switch too like we did with OneTouch and get it up to 1,000,000 merchants like we did with OneTouch? Last one for John, just on credit, you gave us a good stab with 10% of revenues credit, a lot of speculation on what that

Speaker 2

means for profit.

Speaker 19

Less than 10%. What that means for profit? Can you just give us any kind of thoughts around that? Thanks so much.

Speaker 3

So on the $22,000,000 for one touch, I mean, that's in the course of 1 year, right? So if you compare that to other new buying experiences of the industry, I don't think anything else comes anywhere close to that, particularly when you think about that being done around the world. But we still see it growing rapidly. We're not providing forward projections on what that looks like. I think we've been giving updates each quarter as to how that's been growing.

We've seen meaningful growth and we see that continuing to grow. As Dan mentioned, as we turn that on for more and more of our merchant not full 200 plus consumer markets. And so we're seeing good continued growth in that. No specific forward projections on it, but good continued growth and we'll continue to provide updates around that. For Venmo specifically, as I mentioned in the presentation, we're really focused on getting the experience really right.

And so we haven't given details yet of how we'll sort of deploy that further. However, we did talk a lot about one of the strengths of our platform, and you saw this with PayPal One Touch, is that because we control the experience that the consumer has on a merchant site, it lets us go provide new experiences in many, many cases, not in all cases, but in many, many cases without the merchant having to do work. And that's why we're able to get one touch out to 1,000,000 plus merchants in less than a year, more than half the Internet Retailer 500. And so as we think about many new buying experiences, that's a real structural advantage for us that we can deploy those over and over and over again without merchants having to do work. And so while we haven't provided anything specific with sort of the next steps around Pay with Venmo, the more macro statement of can you expect it as we iterate on our buying experiences overall that we'll be able to deploy many of those in the fashion of one touch that doesn't require the merchant to do work, yes, and it's a real structural advantage for us.

Speaker 2

One of the big benefits of the platform restructuring that we've done. Yes. Yes. Yes.

Speaker 12

Yes. And Brian, with respect to your credit question, that we intentionally disclosed revenue and not profits, but profit is not appreciably larger than the high single digits number that we see in revenue right now.

Speaker 1

We'll take 2.

Speaker 20

Hi, it's Lisa Ellis from Bernstein. Two quick ones for me. First, in the consumer vision, you articulated bringing access to consumers a wide range of financial tools, credit, access to their deposit accounts, etcetera. Can you just talk a bit about how you envision doing that over time while still remaining a non bank institution and sort of how partnerships fall into that? Are you envisioning a world where you've got bank partnerships where you're actually almost like a referral service or anything like that?

Just give us a little bit more color on that vision. And then the quick second one is just around, John, you mentioned all around consumer choice, how that will inevitably rate increase, drive up your volume based expenses over time. Very good color on the fact that about 75% the non transaction expenses are fixed. But over the long term, what are some of the mechanisms by which you can actually bring the volume expenses down?

Speaker 2

Sure. I'll answer the first part of it. Unless one of you guys wants to get into the regulatory piece of this.

Speaker 12

Glad to

Speaker 3

let you take that.

Speaker 2

Yes. So as you know, Lisa, we operate under state money transmittal licenses here in the U. S. And everything that we're talking about on that chart, we can do through those licenses. You do not have to be a bank to go and do that.

We are a bank, as you know, in Europe. And so there are other things that we can do in our EMEA region on this. But in the U. S, we do not have to become a bank to execute against the vision we put up against that. I would say, though, that the opportunity to work with in the ecosystem, and we've talked about that several times, we're having many good productive conversations.

I think as we move towards this customer choice model, I talked about at the last earnings call, as we're much more happy to share data that we've kept to ourselves. We think there are a lot of paths to a win win between what we're trying to do and what banks and networks are trying to do. And so we've got nothing to announce today except to say that we're under many different conversations. I would say they're very productive and encouraging. You never know which way these things will wind up at the end of the day, but encouraging.

And I do think that there is a win win for both us and for the partners that we work with.

Speaker 12

And with respect to your cost your question on cost, first, I want to preface this by saying we have a ton of opportunity in terms of the operating leverage in the business and some of the more fixed components. I know that's not your question, but I'm happy to elaborate on that. But with respect to our funding costs, I think there's 2 buckets to think about that. 1 is the funding mix piece. The other is the simple IT cost to perform those transactions.

And if I take the latter one first, when we compare ourselves in terms of the cost of our platform versus others in the ecosystem, We're at the high end and for good reasons because it's not exactly apples and apples. But I think over several years, we can bring that down by probably onethree from where it is today. So there's a big opportunity there. With respect to the funding mix piece of that

Speaker 2

Just wanted to say, Shri, did you hear that?

Speaker 12

With respect to the funding mix element of that, certainly, people organically perhaps would come up with a different funding mix than what we have today. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that as we pursue this higher level of engagement with our consumers, you know if you use our app that the more you use it, the more apt you are to leave a balance in there as well. And so we shouldn't minimize the fact that, that is our lowest cost funding source today. And so that has a way of muting some of the impact over time as well.

Speaker 1

We'll take 3.

Speaker 11

Thank you very much. Youssef Sculley at Cantor Fitzgerald. I just really have one quick question for John. I was just wondering, I just want to make sure I'm doing my math correctly. If you said that the medium term guidance basically is for TPV growth in the mid-20s, but at the same time you're also talking about TPV doubling over the next 4 years that implies, I don't know, 18%, 19%.

Is that all FX? What also goes in there? Thanks.

Speaker 12

Yes. Our guidance is all FX neutral. But basically, I'm suggesting if TBFE were to grow at 25% per year over the next 4 years, we could double it from where it is today.

Speaker 2

We'll take 4.

Speaker 10

Hi. It's Ashwin Shirvaikar from Citi. I have a question on cross border, clearly important for you guys. Are there any particular countries or regions that are driving that for PayPal? And could you talk about if there's an impact from PSD2 in Europe on your cross border revenues, if you can walk through that?

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, I'll take a first crack at that. Our cross border business, we're in 200 plus markets, right? So you certainly have sort of key corridors that are important to that, right? You think about sort of India, China, places like that, those are key corridors for us.

We've launched experiences. We have an example of one that we did with China Union Pay around helping to get Chinese consumers connected rest of world, those kinds of things. So there are certainly key corridors within that. But I think the real power in it is that it's not specific to any one corridor. It's really that many, many of these matter, and we are in 200 plus markets on our consumer side and 140 plus markets on our merchant side.

And so it really is around many, many of these that's happening. So it's not constrained to just a couple of key ones. And I think I don't know if others want to chime in on the regulatory piece of it.

Speaker 2

I won't chime in on the regulatory piece of it. But what I will say is it's not just by chance that so much of our business is cross border. I think as Tomer talked about in his presentation, we guarantee every one of those cross border transactions. We guarantee it because we have great risk modeling underneath that. And when you can guarantee a cross border transaction, it's way more important than a domestic transaction.

If I'm going to shop at a Nordstrom, I know Nordstrom, I feel comfortable with it. I don't necessarily need that guarantee. But if I'm going to shop at a merchant in a country and I don't know that merchant quite as well. That guarantee matters a ton in cross border trade. And I think the latest research that came out, I'll get this number wrong, but it's somewhere like 75% to 80% of consumers would choose to use PayPal for cross border because of the guarantees that we give.

And so it's the fact that we have so many merchants across the world and we have consumers across the world, But in every one of those regions, and John shared some of the statistics, you can see in APAC, in EMEA, in North America, there's extensive use of cross border.

Speaker 3

Yes. And we shared a little bit around some of our different regions, EMEA, North America, APAC and how many of our consumers activate around those things. As you can see a little bit of how it's important across all of those, we have some like EMEA where it's really important consumers are even more familiar with buying across borders. And we've expanded some of these protections, not just the sort of the financial protection, but things like free return shipping and those kinds of things that let people buy more and more with confidence. And so it's all part of why we see 25% plus of our business on cross border versus the industry is hoping to get to 15% in the next 6, 7, 8 years.

Speaker 10

There was a PSD piece to that, but along with that, if I can add a question on contextual commerce, obviously, you're adding the party that provides context to that mix. I would imagine that they would look for a piece of the pie, but you're also providing a lot of value expansion to the merchant. So can you talk about how that evolves? Sure.

Speaker 3

Yes, on the contextual commerce piece, if you think about there's going to be many different players that participate in that, right? 1 went through some some of that can be just transacting in the e mail that you receive, right, where you're still directly interacting with the merchant, but doing it inside of an e mail versus having to sort of come outside of that. You have other players that are going to participate in that that may have businesses built off of things like advertising, where they may think about it and say, hey, it's not necessarily that I need a cut of transaction economics because they have really rich economics on the advertising side, and they care more about can I sell more effective ads? And if I can demonstrate that those ads lead to a transaction, well, I don't want to go play for pennies in a payment processing business. I want to go sell more effective ads.

And I think it's going to be different across different participants there. But I don't know that you need to jump straight to the conclusion of well, there's more mouths to feed. I think it is it's a pie growing exercise transactions that wouldn't have happened and different players will think about how they sort of take their piece of that growing pie, not necessarily around sort of just a toll charge or more mouths to fee because it is pie growing.

Speaker 2

Many of those intermediaries do have ad based platforms that they look on. And one of the big things that they don't like is a redirect away from that site. So if you actually can keep the consumer on the site, allow them to make the transaction, but keep them there, that for them is actually a great thing as well. So you could argue, might we be able to enable even more economics as a result of that?

Speaker 1

We'll take one.

Speaker 21

Thank you. Bob Napoli from William Blair. Dan, as you said, payments industry is changing build pretty dramatically over the next several years. So I think so is the competitive environment and who you're competing against. The bear case against PayPal is that you're going to get this remediated by somebody or some of the assets you've built up are less valuable.

Who do you who are you looking at today? Who do you consider your most dangerous competition? I mean, you have Apple in app payments, you have Stripe, you have Alipay, the cross border, 40% coming out of China, Alipay, $0.10 How do you monitor that competitive environment? Who are you most concerned about? And why doesn't PayPal lose some market share or partially get disintermediated itself?

Speaker 2

So I'd say, 1st of all, it's not going to be 1 player wins all. It is a $100,000,000,000,000 marketplace out there. We have maybe 1% share of it. So I'm not going for 100% share of that. I'd take some percent share above that and would be quite successful for us.

Number 2 is payments is really hard. And there have been one high profile initiative after another that have not succeeded, whether you can start off there are a ton of charts that show PayPal growth versus all the different competitors that have come in. And I think the recent experience that MCX went through is just another example of how difficult payments really is to go and do. We have a number of very unique assets against any player out there. And I think we tried to show just the extent of that right now in terms of where we are in our basic proposition and how we're expanding that, but all the other things that we're doing and the traction that we're getting there.

And every time you do that, you reinforce the flywheel effect. People talk about Apple Pay coming into browser. Well, Apple has been already in mobile, in app since the beginning of their launch, right? And a lot of people don't well, most of you probably in here recognize it, but a lot of people don't when they hear that news. In app is probably like 60% of mobile web commerce right now.

And it's not easy, actually, even when Apple moves into it. It isn't like you can just put your fingerprint on there. You've got to have shipping information, etcetera. So for the consumer, they've got to add in a tremendous amount of information to be able to use that. And for merchants, if it's going to be a native integration and not a redirect, there's code and work that they need to do to implement that as well.

And the other thing that we have that is really different is we control and Bill talked a little bit about this, and I thought it was a really good point, but I wasn't sure that everybody understood it. We control the end to end value proposition. And what that means and by the way, there's expense associated with that, etcetera. But what that means is that we figure out how to onboard a customer. When you look at others, like in Apple or others, they depend on the banks to figure out, can you onboard that customer?

Because when the banks didn't do that, there's tremendous fraud that came in. Then when you think about all the things that Tomer does with risk management that allow us to basically define our value proposition, to give guarantees around transactions. Well, if you're just providing the UI piece of it, and not controlling that piece of like what gets accepted, what doesn't get accepted, you're not controlling that whole value proposition. You're controlling a piece of it. And then when you want to do servicing, because things inevitably go wrong at some point, we try to make them never go wrong, but inevitably they do, you need to actually provide that servicing within the context of that whole value proposition.

And unless you control the whole thing, when you have a problem, you call into One Place thinking that you're paying with the brand of what you're doing and then get redirected to a bank that has maybe the underlying financial instrument. So being able to control that full value proposition and basically having the scale that we have today, and a lot of people dismiss the scale we have today and think that that isn't actually an indicator of how successful we'll be in the future. Every quarter, when we add incremental customer accounts and incremental engagement, that just strengthens our network effect. And unlike a lot of different pays out there and there's a bombardment of pay announcements, people are confused. You can use it at 1 merchant but not another merchant.

You can use it with a certain tender type, not another tender type. You can use it with 1 iOS but not an iOS, another operating system. People are coming to us because we have a consistent, uniform, great value proposition across all of those elements. And so as I said on the earnings call, you're never guaranteed of your position going forward. You constantly have to innovate.

But payments is hard. This is all we do. We have some 17,000 plus people that are just focused on digital payment. We've revamped our technology stack. We are innovating at a speed, And Bill showed some of those statistics that we've never done before.

And so we're very mindful of the competitive environment out there. But we also have a chance to partner with a lot of that competitive environment. People also thought Facebook at one time would be a competitor, and they're a huge partner of ours right now. And we're enabling their aspirations through our platform. And so I think there are multiple ways of thinking about this.

But I think, no pun intended, the uber point of this is that we feel really good about the future as we see it right now.

Speaker 1

We have time for one last question. We'll take 2.

Speaker 22

Yes. Thank you. Before the spin from eBay, there were a lot of reasons for the spin. The ability to acquire talent, we've seen a lot of that today, just the way the market would handle growth versus value and that's played out. In terms of the other justifications, the ability to add other merchants, partner with other partners, what have you been able to accomplish since the spin and what do you think you'll still be able to accomplish?

And then the second question, you talked about a multi app strategy and how you'd incorporate different capabilities. Does that mean we're going to see cash out of PayPal? Does that mean and you talked a lot about Venmo and monetization, but Venmo has been a great customer acquisition tool for you. Do you feel like it's fully internationally penetrated or is there not opportunity to roll it out to other countries, geographies as a customer acquisition tool as well?

Speaker 3

You have the first part of that and I'll since eBay partnership I forgot

Speaker 2

about the eBay separation. It happened so long ago. So first of all, eBay is a great customer of ours. Devin and I have dinner all the time together. We work great digital payments partner to them, but actually thinking of ways how we can help to drive their business forward as well.

So that, by the way, is going fantastic. John Donahoe and I met, and we were just kind of reminiscing on just how well that's going versus all of the meetings and conversations we had about it as we were doing the split. So that's working extremely well. But you're also seeing really the benefits of that split where we truly are an independent neutral third party. And I mean all of the partners that you're seeing us were, but Alibaba wholesalers that's gone from trial now to actually rolling out.

Even platforms like Facebook and others where you had competition in some way with eBay, Those all of those boundaries are down right now. We are having conversations across the world with people who we never could have had conversations with had we been a part of eBay. And so I think you're right. I think the talent piece of that has helped. But what's really up with the talent is we're focused, and we've also been able to revamp our tech platform.

And that's enabling us to attract a lot better engineering talent than we've ever had before. And it's fun. It's fun to work on things that are growing that make a real difference in the market. So there have been a huge number of benefits. We're extremely happy with it.

And I think Devin is feeling good about what he's trying to do as well. He's working hard at that.

Speaker 3

And then the second part of that around Venmo and sort of opportunities there, you asked about international. Venmo today is still U. S. Only. So in terms of is there opportunity around international?

Well, given it's U. S. Only today, certainly that's an opportunity. We haven't announced anything specific as a sort of when we'll do that. Again, we're much more focused on making sure we get the experiences really right and that those are resonant and we would sort of bring the Venmo magic into each new experience that we take on.

So we're focused on that 1st and foremost. But certainly given that it's U. S. Only, does rest of world present opportunity? It's a reasonable conclusion for one to draw.

The other part of your question around sort of the multi app strategy, the way we think about that, I think you were asking like, hey, are we going to carve out more services outside of the PayPal app? The PayPal app will continue to be the center piece of that, right? So if you think about the core aspects of how people manage and move their money, sort of the key way that we want to interact with our consumer, you're going to see that in the PayPal app, right, much in the way that the Facebook app, as much as they're sort of Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram, this other family of apps, the Facebook app is still the centerpiece of those experiences. You think of the PayPal app that way for us, right? You have Zoom and Venmo and we have other apps.

We have a PayPal Here app that allows merchants to take card present payments, things like that. The core PayPal app will continue to be the centerpiece of how people manage and move their money. But as we get to more of those experiences that may be too heavyweight to put into the PayPal app, then thinking about how you carve that out is some of what we'll think about. Demographic sort of experiences, things like that, we'll think about. But it's a conscious strategy to make sure that the PayPal remains the centerpiece, but also effectively leverage other apps when there's a more heavyweight use case or a type of experience or demographic that we want to serve much as you've seen from other players in the space like a Facebook or Google.

Speaker 1

Thanks,

Speaker 2

Bill. All right.

Speaker 12

Well, we're going to wrap up. I want to say thank you again for all of us. We recognize that this is a significant portion of time that you carve out to do this, and we don't take that lightly. We've tried to put a program together for you today that you can get an understanding of what we think is important as well as what's of most interest to you. We appreciate your interest.

We appreciate those of you who are shareholders. And we look forward to doing this again next time. Thank you. Thank you.

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