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Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference 2025

Jun 11, 2025

Operator

All right, welcome back to day two of the Wells Fargo Industrial and Materials conference. I'm delighted to continue and segue into the trucking and logistics portion of our conference with Ryder System. With us, we've got Robert Sanchez, the Chairman and CEO, as well as in the audience, Calene Candela. I'm gonna turn it over to Robert for some prepared remarks, and then we'll jump into Q&A.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Okay, thank you. I'll just do a quick overview of the company for those of you who may not be as familiar. Ryder is just under $13 billion, Fortune 500 company. We've been around for 92 years. We're in the transportation logistics outsourcing business. We operate in North America, U.S., Mexico, and Canada. We have about 50,000 employees made up of warehouse workers, truck drivers, mainly warehouse workers, truck drivers, and technicians. We operate in about 1,000 different locations across North America. We do everything from renting trucks to leasing fleets of trucks. We have a fleet of about 250,000 vehicles that we own most of them and maintain all of them. We offer dedicated transportation, so trucks and drivers, and then we offer broad supply chain logistics services such as running distribution centers.

We operate about 330 distribution centers, about 100 million sq ft of warehouse space for customers. We offer e-commerce fulfillment services, last-mile services for big and bulky, and most recently, we acquired co-manufacturing and co-packaging services. A broad, we like to say, port-to-door services in logistics. We've been on a journey over the last five years to really transform the business. Back in the end of 2019, we made a decision we needed to do three things. Number one is we needed to de-risk the business, realizing in our leasing business we were carrying a lot more risk in that business than what we wanted, specifically around used trucks. We were expecting a certain amount of revenue from the final sale of a used truck after the lease that, in a volatile used truck market, really was hurting us.

We made a decision to really de-risk that business, lower the residual assumption for all new leases. Five years ago, we are now in the last year of really refreshing the entire portfolio with a new pricing method. We also wanted to improve the profitability of the business, so increase the spreads on the business. We had historically targeted 60-100 basis point spreads on our leases. We moved that up to 100-150 and now have, have had, this is our, I guess, our 6th year now of the 100-150 basis point spreads. Just better returns on that portfolio of leases. Then we wanted to accelerate the more asset-light and, and in a lot of ways, higher return businesses of supply chain and dedicated. This is the tail of the tape of what that has done to the business.

You go, you look on the left side is, is 2018 and what our results were in 2018, which was a peak year in the freight market compared to 2025, which today you would argue is we're probably at a trough or trough-like, period of the freight market. The shift in the business, very in, in just round numbers, supply chain and dedicated were about 45% of the revenues of the company in 2018. Today, they're about 60% of the revenues. The earnings per share that we accomplished in 2018 was just under $6. This year, we're gonna do anywhere between $12.85 and $13.60. That is, a, almost double the earnings in a trough year today versus what they were in a peak year before the transformation. Return on equity, which is our primary metric, in a peak year, we were generating about 13% return on equity.

This year, we're targeting in a trough to generate anywhere between 16.5 and 17.5. Our goal is over the cycle to do in the low 20s. In a peak year, we'd be in the mid-20s, from a return on equity standpoint. You can see the operating cash flow has increased significantly also. I think we're really proud of the work we've done and the transformation of the business. The good news is that there's still more to come. We have still additional strategic initiatives that we think can improve the business further. We identified $150 million of earnings improvement from strategic initiatives that we can execute on. $20 million-$25 million is just from this final tranche of leases that needed to be repriced with the lower residual and the higher returns.

Maintenance costs, which was a big driver of some of the improvement we've already had. We still think there's more to come there. We've identified $50 million of additional maintenance cost savings that we can execute on. We did a, we've done several acquisitions, but one that we did last year was Cardinal and dedicated, which increased our dedicated revenue by about 50%. There were synergies associated with that, which are $40 million-$60 million. The execution on those synergies is also a contributor to that $150 million. Those are the big drivers. $150 million, we feel confident that by the end of this year, we'll have accomplished $100 million of the $150 million. These are things that we have direct line of sight to that are really more independent of what happens in the economy and things that we can execute on.

We then have another $200 million that we've identified of earnings improvement just as the economy picks up and as the freight economy picks up, primarily driven by our rental and used truck business. Because, as you might imagine, our rental business right now, transactional part of the company, is soft. As that business really picks back up, we see a lot of earnings opportunity there, along with used trucks. We do still sell a lot of used trucks. We're not as reliant on those used trucks to make our earnings, but still have opportunities as the market picks up to get some improvement there. A couple hundred million at least of earnings improvement as we transition from a trough in the freight cycle to a peak. Excited about the opportunities as we go forward.

This is something that we wanted to make sure as we talk about cash flow and free cash flow, we really highlight for folks is our capital deployment capacity. Over a three-year period, we can generate about $10 billion-$10.5 billion of operating cash flow. That also generates an additional $3.5 billion of debt capacity. We have about $13 billion-$13.5 billion of capital that we can deploy over that three-year period. Eight, just under $9 billion will go to replace vehicles that are just at the end of their life, need to be replaced to continue on with the next lease or the next rental. We got about $500,000 that goes into dividends, leaving us with just about $4.3 billion of what we call flexible deployable capital.

That's gonna go towards either growth, primarily in our lease and rental business, or acquisitions and share buybacks. If you look at the history, we have a history of doing all of those, right? We're gonna grow the fleet some, and we'll also be able to deploy some capital into share buybacks and acquisitions. You can assume that's gonna be about a 50/50 split, maybe a little bit more on the organic growth side. It goes to show you that we're kind of in a Goldilocks-type model here where we are able to grow the business, we are able to generate good returns, and we are able to have the flexibility to do acquisitions when they come up that are right and also give some money back to our shareholders through buybacks. That's it.

Operator

Robert, thank you for that overview. You know, one of the unique things with the Ryder story is you guys are gonna grow earnings at the midpoint of guidance compared to most transports. We're seeing earnings move backwards. A lot of that's driven by the $70 million of kind of company-specific initiatives that you laid out. Could you discuss kind of how much of that $70 million you guys had realized in the first quarter and kind of what the other big buckets that we'll see stepping up over the course of the year are?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, I would, I mean, you could just take the $70 million, assume it's pro rata through the year is probably a pretty good assumption. It's basically made up of the, the big buckets there are the last tranche of leases that are being repriced, with the lower residuals and the higher spreads. Maintenance costs, so we talked about $50 million of maintenance cost initiatives. We'll get a good chunk of those this year. and then the synergies, you had, you know, about $50 million of synergies, that we believe we can, we're gonna be getting. We have good line of sight to from the Cardinal acquisition. It's primarily as Cardinal, we did, we did have some opportunities from an overhead standpoint to get some benefits.

There are also a lot of benefits as the vehicles that were running for Cardinal, they were owned by Cardinal, maintained either by Cardinal or through other third parties. As they go into the Ryder network, we're able to buy them at a better price. We're able to maintain them more efficiently and really drive a lot of cost out that way. It is just churning those vehicles through the machine, and that's why we feel really confident in our ability to hit that.

Operator

You know, as we think about that $150 million exiting this year, there'll be about $50 million left. How should I think about the opportunity to realize that $50 million? Is that something that can all happen next year? Does it take a couple years to kind of get there? How should we just kind of think about the full realization?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we haven't given guidance out that far, but you can assume a lot of that really happens in 2026. Maintenance costs, again, is gonna be a big driver of that. You will already be done with the pricing, so it'll be primarily maintenance costs and additional initiatives, still related to the synergies. The other piece has really been, I didn't spend a lot of time talking about that, but in our e-commerce business, in our multi-client warehousing business, as we rationalize that network for the amount of business that we have and also get more business through there, there's an improvement in earnings too that will flow through there.

Operator

Yeah, one of the big drivers of just the structural improvement in the margins as well as the earnings and cash flow has been that lease repricing initiative. And as you noted, we're gonna be kind of getting through that. But as I take a step back, you know, one of the big things that we were hearing yesterday was truck prices go up every year. In addition to that, we've seen a big increase in interest expense, interest rates more broadly. All that, I would imagine, would cycle through and provide kind of an incremental kicker as you guys start to cycle that lease repricing initiative. Maybe you could help us think about how will that benefit Ryder over the next few years?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, I think that's a great point because as the vehicles become more expensive, that's additional capital we deploy at the higher returns that we're shooting for. If you think about inflation over the last, since 2018 for trucks, truck costs have gone up 45% over that seven-year period. Tractor prices have gone up about 25%. That inflation gets built into the next lease, and then we build our return on top of that. Yeah, that's the other kicker that I think going forward gives us confidence that you're gonna continue to see earnings growth and good returns.

Operator

We'll continue to see the ROI, the ROE you guys are targeting, but it'll just be at a higher level.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

At a higher capital amount. Yep.

Operator

That makes sense. If there are any questions in the audience, please raise your hand. We will get a mic around. We do want to make this interactive, but I'm happy to continue kind of driving here. The cyclical earnings recovery, right? That's something we've been waiting to see, hasn't been coming there. We've had some kind of starts and stops along the way, but how should we think about, you know, the big buckets that you guys see? We've got used vehicle and rental. Those would be the biggest drivers of this. You also mentioned a little bit in the SCS segment with some of the warehousing tailwinds. I'd imagine there's some of the dedicated too, but, you know, I'm curious how we should think about that full bucket, kind of the full $200 million in the buckets.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, I think, we're, I guess we're in our third year now of this freight recession, which is almost unbelievable. I think we've been able to show the resiliency of the contractual part of Ryder's business, the lease business, the dedicated, 'cause our dedicated is really for the most part specialized dedicated contracts and most of our supply chain business, again, multi-year contracts. You've seen our earnings really be able to hold up really well as we're, that's really the driver of most of the earnings that Ryder has. The variability comes from rental, so transactional part of the business, which is about less than 10% of the revenues of the company. Then our used vehicle sales gains will move up and down with the price. You know, where are we on that?

I think we keep thinking we're, it looks like we're bumping along the bottom here, just waiting for the uncertainty, the wait and see to kind of go away and companies to really jump in and start investing and start moving stuff around. We see a great opportunity there as rental comes back. Our rental fleet is down about, I think, 9,000, 8, 9,000 units. Just to get our utilization back up to where it needs to be, you're gonna have a lot of earnings come in. In addition to that, we'll build up that rental fleet again, and you'll get significant earnings from that along with gains.

You know, our gains this year are gonna be lower than they were last year, still on the low end of what we call normalized, and certainly below the peak levels that we've seen over the cycle.

Operator

Maybe we could kind of dig a little bit further into rental. You had noted kind of softer conditions in the month of April. Has that continued, kind of quarter to date, like the softer underlying rental conditions when you guys decided, all right, we're actually gonna reduce the fleet a little bit more here?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we don't do mid-quarter updates, but I'll tell you, the environment kind of continues to be this wait and see. You know, we're kind of seeing companies taking a long time to make decisions, not a big increase in movement yet of stuff. You kind of feel like we're close, kind of feel like everybody wants to do stuff, but we're just still seeing customers delaying decisions even around signing long-term contracts, and then just not the economic activity yet that I think we're all hoping for.

Operator

Kind of a coiled spring in, in rental. We're just waiting, waiting to see that underlying improvement. When you think about the rental fleet, you, you've shifted a lot more to the truck portion away from the kind of the tractor. Are there any meaningful differences in utilization rates that you're seeing kind of across those two end markets, or are they pretty similar?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we started to see, on the tractor side, especially on the used sleeper tractors, on the used truck part of the business, we started to see some improvement there, which is a pretty good sign that, you know, maybe the carrier market is beginning to turn a little bit. We are still seeing softness, I would tell you. I mean, what we saw in the, we talked about this in the first quarter, we still saw softness across the market in rental. We were not seeing the big pickup that we would expect. We were not, we did not, in our forecast, we did not really count on a big pickup in rental in the second quarter. Yeah, I think the uncertainty has been, the uncertainty that was originally for, because of high interest rates, got substituted by uncertainty for the election.

We got substituted now for uncertainty over the tariffs. Hopefully this is the last of the uncertainty items, but probably not. Something else will come up.

Moderator

I think for the full year outlook, you guys basically baked in normal seasonality in the second half of the year, but nothing.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

On the high end of our range, we baked in normal seasonality. On the low end, we baked no seasonality.

Operator

Okay. That's helpful. You had mentioned this kind of a moment ago that your used sleepers, you're actually seeing a little bit of improvement on if we kind of take out some of the aged inventory.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Right.

Moderator

Can you remind us kind of what your mix was in Q1 of wholesale versus retail and kind of how you see that playing out over the course of the year? Like will we be done reducing the size of that aged inventory in the second quarter?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, our goal is to get the aged inventory flushed out this quarter.

Moderator

Okay.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

By the end of the second quarter, we should be out of most of that aged inventory, and then we'll be converting back to more retail type of sales as we get into the second half of the year.

Moderator

You know, when I think about 2Q relative to 1Q, will you be selling more of the aged inventory? Is it similar? Is it less? Just 'cause there is obviously a negative mix anytime we are doing more wholesale,

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, you're gonna see, I mean, in the second quarter, we built in, you know, continue to flush out what was left. There could be a little bit more in the second quarter, again, just to get those units out of the inventory and get into the second half with the inventory looking more like what we'd like it to.

Moderator

If I take a step back, we're finally starting to see some of the underlying green shoots that we would expect, right? The net new orders are coming down, which is negative for the broader business, but should be eventually a positive for the used vehicle sales. Maybe you could walk us through how long after a year or, you know, half a year of depressed net orders do we start seeing the used vehicle side prices pick up?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, it, it's a, it's a complicated calculation 'cause it also depends on demand, right? Depends on how strong demand is. Clearly when new trucks are being produced, they're typically being produced to replace a used truck. It is generating one used truck into the market. That is not good when used truck prices are depressed. The fact that orders are down is a good sign for the used truck market. Eventually you see that inventory beginning to get flushed out. I really can't give you a, you know, a timeframe. I've been predicting that this market's gonna turn around in six months for the last two years, so I'm not gonna keep doing that. I would tell you six months out, things are gonna be better, but who knows?

Moderator

Yeah. I mean, we're seeing price increases on the news, so that also helps out demand for used. And candidly, I've been amazed that the used units sold has been as high as they've been, just given how depressed the market has been for as long as it has been. Hopefully we see an uptick in the not too distant future there. We've been talking about this wait and see environment from, you know, from a leasing perspective, from a demand perspective. Do you think we just need to get kind of the tariff certainty resolved to kind of see additional companies making increases in their capital deployment and thereby kind of helping out underlying truck demand? Or is there something else you think we need to see?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

I think so. I think after the election there was a sense of, okay, we're going into an administration now with lower taxes, less regulation. Those are all, you know, positives for business. I think the tariffs sort of put a little bit of a monkey wrench in that. Just, and it's not so much the tariff, but the uncertainty around it, I think is what's creating some of this. I think as we get past that, if we can get back to lower taxes, deregulatory environment, I think companies, the good news is I think most of the customers that we deal with are in good shape, have good balance sheets. They wanna expand. No company gets an award for shrinking. Most companies get awards for growing. I think most companies wanna grow.

Once we get enough visibility to say, okay, I know generally what's gonna happen with these tariffs and I know a little bit more visibility as to what the playing field's gonna look like, I think we'll start to see companies get back into growth mode.

Moderator

Maybe you could talk a little bit about what the backlog is for kind of new, new FMS leases.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah.

Moderator

and the dedicated side, like has that meaningfully changed just given this wait and see approach?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, really across all three businesses, our pipelines are strong. It's just taken customers longer to make decisions. We're seeing a lot of decisions being put on hold. Let's wait till next month, which usually happens when there's a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Yeah, I think we've now been in a little bit of a long period here of seeing this since probably about a year ago now. If you go back about a year is where, right, a little bit more than a year when it really first started.

Moderator

Are you starting to see any kind of green shoots in whether it is truck miles driven, lease extensions, redeployments? Is there anything to kind of get us a little bit more excited that maybe we are getting closer to a turn?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

We did. We saw lease miles per unit. So that's a metric that we follow to see what our lease customers are doing with their trucks. We had 11 quarters, I think it was, of decline. Two quarters ago is when we first started to see a turn. That's a bit of a positive where now we're seeing that our lease customers are using the trucks that they lease from us more. It's still off, in terms of total miles that they're running, they're still off from where they should be or the peak, if you will, where you start to see the mad trucks. A sign that it's at least bottoming out and maybe, maybe coming back.

Moderator

How much would you say we're below kind of that kind of traditional threshold where people wanna add incremental units over time?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

I think it was, I think it was about a 10%, 10% below where we start to see that really improve.

Moderator

Interesting. Earlier in our discussion, you had kind of highlighted the opportunity for Cardinal synergies. Sounds like you're making really good traction on those. As we look at, you know, some of your finances, it looks like you brought on about 7,000, give or take, new units from there. There are still probably about five that are under leases, which presumably means you're paying someone else for that truck. How quickly should we think about those remaining trucks, which are not currently running through FMS that came with Cardinal?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, those leases, just as they expire, they're typically operating leases with banks, many of them. As they expire, we're turning them over into, to Ryder. A lot of that will be, a good chunk of it will be done this year, and then there'll be some that'll still carry over into next year.

Moderator

You know, just thinking about the DTS segment, if I go back kind of 2022, 2023, you guys were at the base of the high end of kind of the range in that 8-9% margin. How quickly do you think we can get back there? Is it just as simple, hey, once we get the 40-60 of synergies we're targeting at Cardinal, we'll be there? Or is there something else you guys need to see to get back?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

That's a big part of it. I think the 40-60 is a big chunk of it. May need a little bit of, as we, as we go into 2020, you know, we now had a period where we just haven't had a lot of organic growth. These companies are just taking longer to make decisions. As we get into 2026, you start to see some of that growth come back, and I think that should help us get back in that range. Yeah, I do expect us to get back in that range. We've kept that as our long-term target.

It really has been, as we brought in some of the Cardinal business, some of that business had lower margins because of some of the cost issues that we've talked about, but also some of these contracts we've had to go back and relook at also. I'd expect we'd be able to get that done here over the next, you know, 24 months.

Moderator

That's great. And has, you know, some of the kind of margin erosion also been companies that are securing dedicated capacity have seen kind of fleet reductions? And that's a headwind as well?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

That's a good point. Yeah. Most of our business is specialized, dedicated, not dedicated capacity.

Moderator

Right.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

During COVID, there were customers who were moving stuff through truckload that said, you know what, I can't find capacity. Let me just add some trucks to my dedicated fleet. Those vehicles over time have been going away, and that's created certainly some pressure on the top line for dedicated.

Moderator

Can you remind us about your dedicated fleet expectation? I think it was roughly flattish for the year, but can you kind of remind us what your expectation for the, for the baked into guidance there?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we're gonna be below our target in terms of growth, and that's primarily because of the environment we're in. We're just not seeing a lot of companies making decisions. Plus, for dedicated, I'd argue it's also the freight market is just soft still. Until that starts to pick up and people have a tough time finding truck drivers and being able to secure the movement of freight, that's typically when things get hard in terms of operations, that's when it's good for Ryder. When it's hard to find a truck driver, hard to move your load, that's really good for us. If it's hard to maintain a truck, that's really good for us. If it's hard to move supply chain stuff around, that's good for us.

The good thing is supply chain complexity, I think, is continuing to be difficult and complicated, which is why that part of the business is, you know, continuing to grow really nicely.

Moderator

Yeah, no, that's always been a big driver of dedicated. If I look at, you know, the Ryder margins or even the targets relative to some of the best in class out there, some of your competitors can get up to the double digits. Is that just a difference of network density? Do you think it's some of the spot opportunities that truckload players kind of generate and, you know, structurally can Ryder achieve? Do you think they could achieve in the future?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we're getting pretty close to that. I think we've, you know, we've been pretty close to that number. The gap historically has been density, as you mentioned, the ability also to double utilize equipment with some of the other businesses that our competitors have. You know, we haven't given up on that. We do kind of view that as a long-term goal that we'd like to get to.

Moderator

I segueing back to the FMS business. Historically, you know, kind of within this new pricing regime, you've been targeting two to four thousand of net unit additions. Obviously, we haven't been at that level. Kind of more recently, I think a lot of that is the demand backdrop. Do you think that's the right level for Ryder from a growth perspective, from a returns perspective? We're just in a softer environment or, you know, maybe, maybe should it be lower than that level?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, no, I think two to four is the right one. That's the, that's where we'll have good earnings growth, good top line growth, but also good free cash flow. That is kind of the Goldilocks level. Since we have been below for a few years, we might see us get a little bit above that when the market picks back up. That's a good average over the cycle is what we would expect to get.

Moderator

Should we think about kind of going above that level, is that growth in rental that drives kind of the incremental growth, or is it more of growth of the traditional FMS customers?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

It, the two to four thousand is lease growth. On top of that, we would have some rental growth as we build our rental fleet back up. You're gonna get a chunk of that from just customers who have a fleet needing an additional, they have 10 trucks, they need one more. You get a portion of that. Some will be new customers that we bring in that maybe have their own, that buy their own trucks and their own maintenance and they're in the private fleet and we bring them into the lease fleet.

Moderator

Interesting. Are you seeing any changes in terms of the private fleet conversations, the tenor there? Or has it just been like we've talked about, kind of across the business, the steady state wait and see?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, it's been generally wait and see. You know, I think most customers are sticking with what they're doing right now and no one's making big changes until they see kind of where things are going.

Moderator

I guess we've seen the strength of the balance sheet, right? You're kind of at the lower end of the target leverage, of where you guys wanna be. How should we think about capital deployment as well as the leverage for Ryder at this point in the cycle and, you know, kind of as we move out over the next couple of years as things start to improve?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we're, you know, our target leverage debt tech was 2.50 to 3.00. We're on the low end of that. You know, the nice thing is that with that growth that we've talked about of 2,000-4,000 unit lease growth and getting our rental fleet kind of moving in the same direction, I think that puts us in a position where we're growing our earnings, we're delevering. The business model naturally delevers at that, gives us an opportunity to do acquisitions when they come up that are meaningful and also do share buybacks. It really kind of gives us a lot of options around what we do with our capital, and we can do it in the way that's gonna give us the best return.

Moderator

How do you think about kind of the capital deployment, just given kind of where the stock is as well as discussions? I would imagine, you know, times like this, they're harder. There might be more attractive valuations from an M&A perspective. How are you balancing those?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, look, you would think in this environment, maybe there is, but at the same time, if we're looking for good companies, we're looking for good, well-run companies. We're not looking for turnarounds. Good companies may not wanna sell in this environment, wanna wait for a better environment. We're still out there. We're looking to see who's, you know, who would be a good fit. We've got a team that's always, you know, in the market. If we find a right fit, we found another Cardinal, I think we would like that. If we found a new capability for our supply chain business, I think we would like that. We also always would do tuck-ins in our leasing business where they make sense. Those are basically the three types of businesses that we focus on.

Moderator

There's a lot of discussions about kind of a tax bill going around. Hopefully we do see that to incentivize growth. Bonus depreciation. Ryder's obviously got a massive lease fleet. You're investing every year. What would that mean for the company?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, that's a great point. I'm glad you brought that. It's a very meaningful thing for us. We invest $2.5 billion-$3 billion a year on trucks. So bonus depreciation is very meaningful for us. It would mean about $200 million of incremental cash flow for the company a year. We don't, it doesn't do a whole lot on the earnings side, on the earnings per share, but it does give us a meaningful, free cash flow benefit.

Moderator

Is there a preference of how that cash would be redeployed? Or it just depends on what the demand environment is?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

You know, market comes back, hopefully it's coming back. We're gonna be deploying that to the additional maybe 2,000-4,000, maybe a little bit more lease units. We're gonna build back our rental fleet. Obviously we'll still have money to continue to do acquisitions when they come up, and buybacks. Again, most of our acquisitions, just to give you, these aren't bet the farm type acquisitions. They tend to be anywhere from $200 million up to maybe, I think the $500 million-$600 million has been the largest.

Moderator

Yeah. One thing I haven't heard a lot about recently has been the 2027 emissions changes. Are you hearing about any prebuys that are gonna go along with that? Candidly, I'm not, but I'm curious. You've got a much bigger customer base that you're talking to.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah, we're not at this point. I think there's still some uncertainty about exactly what that's gonna be given, given the new administration. There's not a big move. I think it's a combination of the uncertainty around what the 2027 is gonna be. Also, the market's soft. When the market's soft, you don't see a lot of people thinking too much about, let me, let me go buy a new truck. I think that if it's gonna happen, it's getting pushed out. Again, that wasn't a big, that was gonna be a benefit possibly for us in the long term for used trucks 'cause the prior 327s. Again, not nothing that we were counting on to hit our targets.

Moderator

Yeah. Certainly we're seeing it in the net orders right now.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah.

Moderator

There is much less demand for trucks, but it's a cyclical market as we all know.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

It's not a surprise. I think this is what we normally see. You see people pull back, the market gets back in equilibrium, and then you'll see orders come back in, and the market pick back up. This is just taking longer, I think, than what we've seen historically. It's also because we came off of, you know, the COVID years where everything got way out of balance the other way.

Moderator

As you're surveying for the potential inflection, what are the couple key KPIs you're looking at to give you the sense, all right, it's time to start growing the rental fleet again or?

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Yeah. So we look at obviously rental utilization. We look at, lease miles per unit, and then we look at our used truck market and used truck pricing and see what's happening with those.

Moderator

Hopefully we start to see an uptick there, but Robert, appreciate it. We'll leave it, we'll leave it there.

Robert Sanchez
Chairman and CEO, Ryder System

Great. Thank you. Thank you for having us. Appreciate it.

Moderator

Our pleasure.

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