RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)
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Apr 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT - Market closed
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Feb 10, 2022

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the RBC Bearings Fiscal 2022 Q3 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll only press star one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star, then zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mike Cummings, with Alpha IR. Please go ahead.

Mike Cummings
Senior Managing Director, Alpha IR Group

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings Fiscal 2022 Q3 Earnings Conference Call. With me on the call today are Dr. Michael J. Hartnett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Daniel A. Bergeron, Director, Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer; and Robert M. Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before beginning today's call, let me remind you that some of the statements made today will be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors. We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. These factors are also described in greater detail in the press release and on the company's website.

In addition, reconciliation between GAAP and Non-GAAP financial information is included as part of the release and is available on the company's website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Okay, thank you, Mike, and good morning to all, and welcome. This is our first quarterly report after completing the acquisition of Dodge Industrial Products division from Asea Brown Boveri , Switzerland, on November 1, 2022. Two months of Dodge operational performance are included in this report, but three months of financial drag was experienced as we worked through the acquisition mechanics through October and acquired the company November 1. We are pleased and excited to welcome the Dodge businesses and teams into RBC Bearings family and look forward to and can fully visualize a long, fruitful, and mutually beneficial relationship for our investors, employees, customers, and suppliers. The Dodge businesses materially strengthen our industrial offering and positions us very favorably relative to a large and important base of customers with an exciting new platform of products, and I'll talk more about this later.

In summary, RBC Bearings net sales for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 were $267 million versus $145.9 million for the same period last year, an increase of 83%. Dodge sales were $110 million over the two-month period. For the third fiscal quarter of 2021, sales of industrial products represented 65% of our net sales, with aerospace products representing 35%. Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was $100.3 million, or 37.6% of net sales. This compares to $56.4 million, or 38.7%, for the same period last year.

Adjusted operating income was $44.8 million, 16.8% of net sales, compared to last year's $27.9 million and 19.1% of net sales. EBITDA was $71.4 million, or 26.7% of net sales, compared to $41 million and 28.1%, a 72.8% increase. As others have reported, and we concur, the industrial demand today is through the roof. While industrial sectors we serve are performing, demand for industrial products in many cases exceeds our capacity, mostly as a result of supply chain constraints, particularly at the Dodge businesses.

We have worked through these constraints with vigor over the past nine months and see improvements ahead, but it's a problem that will linger and continue to bite our ankles, at least for the first half of fiscal 2023. A sample of important sectors we serve with their strengths are mining, sand and gravel, taconite, both surface and subsurface. Steel shortages today drive you know substantial demand here for our products. Construction is strong. Aggregate has a very strong outlook for 8 currently, and 8 in 18 months, we expect the increase in order flow from the infrastructure bill for highways and bridges, which has been the typical lead lag equation in that sector. Food and beverage, proteins, beef, cattle, turkey, chicken, canning continues to grow with increased demand for our new product offerings.

Oil and gas is very strong, and I'm sure everyone knows the story here when you fill up your tank. And warehousing, it's a great rush to build fulfillment centers to supply the last mile, to support the last mile strategies underway by Amazon, Tractor Supply, Home Depot, Walmart, Target, et cetera. Our products are well integrated into these, into these, these new businesses. Semiconductor machinery, very strong. Billions for new plants have been announced by Intel, Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor, and many others... and in industrial distribution as a result of all the demand for the previous sectors mentioned, continues to be strong, and that sector is consolidating. To summarize, we are making as much as we can in every site where we have industrial production. Turning now to aerospace and defense.

Our Q3 of fiscal 2022, net sales were up by 3.5%, led by aircraft OEM, which is up by 10.5%. Weak defense sales held down the expansion. These can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter, depending upon build schedules and milestone achievements in our plants, but we expect these to normalize by the end of the year. Also, postponement of the 787 production dampened the OEM rate, capping it at the 10.5% previously mentioned. Our backlog for this sector is up over $80 million, and we are planning for a major volume expansion beginning next year, as Boeing and Airbus expand build rates for their single-aisle planes and Dreamliner production resumes. Important airframes in our lineup are the 737 MAX, 787, 777X, the 777, the A320, and the A350.

We're visited often by the major plane builders to make sure that we have enough capacity in our plants to service the demand that is ahead in the succeeding quarters. Regarding our Q4 , we're expecting sales of between $340 million and $350 million in total. I'll now turn the call over to Dan and Rob for more details on the financial performance.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Thank you, Mike. Expanding on gross margin that Mike already covered, gross margin for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was affected by a $7.0 million inventory step-up related to the Dodge acquisition. Q4 , fiscal 2022 gross margin is expected to be affected by a $6.8 million inventory step-up related to the acquisition. SG&A for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was $43.2 million, compared to $25.7 million for the same period last year. Excluding $12.0 million in costs from the Dodge business, the increase is primarily associated with an increase in personnel costs year-over-year. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A was 16.2% for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to 17.6% for the same period last year.

Other operating expenses for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 totaled $35.8 million, compared to $3.3 million for the same period last year. For the Q3 of fiscal 2022, other operating expenses included $23.5 million of costs associated with the Dodge acquisition, $12.1 million of amortization of intangible assets, and $0.2 million of other items. Other operating expense for the same period last year consisted mainly of $2.6 million of amortization of intangible assets, $0.5 million of restructuring costs and related items, and $0.2 million of other costs. Operating income was $14.4 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to operating income of $26.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2021.

On an adjusted basis, operating income would have been $44.8 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to adjusted operating income of $27.9 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2021. Other non-operating expense was expense of $1.4 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to income of $0.1 million for the same period last year. For the Q3 of fiscal 2022, other non-operating expenses were comprised of $0.9 million of charges associated with the elimination of a domestic debt facility, $0.4 million of post-retirement benefit costs, and $0.1 million of other items.

For the Q3 of fiscal 2021, other non-operating income was comprised of $0.5 million of gains on marketable securities, partially offset by $0.2 million of foreign exchange loss and $0.2 million of other items. For the Q3 of fiscal 2022, the company reported a net loss of $0.1 million, compared to net income of $21.6 million for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, net income was $26.1 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to $22.7 million for the same period last year. Net loss available to common stockholders for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was negative $5.8 million, compared to net income of $21.6 million for the same period last year.

On an adjusted basis, net income available to common stockholders for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was $20.3 million, compared to $22.7 million for the same period last year. Adjusted cash net income available to the common stockholders for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was $42.2 million, compared to $33.9 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share was -$0.20 per share for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to $0.86 per share for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, diluted EPS for the Q3 of fiscal 2022 was $0.70 per share, compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $0.90 per share for the same period last year.

Diluted Cash EPS was an adjusted $0.46 per share for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to $0.35 per share for the same period last year. Adjusted cash net income and adjusted cash earnings per share excludes non-cash expenses for depreciation and amortization of fixed intangible assets-

... stock compensation, and amortization of deferred financing fees, net of their income tax impact. We believe that adjusted cash net income and adjusted cash earnings per share are useful in assessing our financial performance by excluding items that do not affect the cash available to common stockholders. Turning to cash flow, the company generated $40.0 million in cash from operating activities for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to $36.1 million for the same period last year, and $133.4 million in cash from operating activities for the nine-month period fiscal 2022, compared to $110.6 million for the same nine-month period last year. Capital expenditures were $14.9 million for the Q3 of fiscal 2022, compared to $2.8 million for the same period last year.

Approximately $6.2 million of capital spending this quarter was related to the Dodge acquisition, and they were submitted post-closing purchase price adjustment costs. Total debt as of January 1, 2022, was $1.79 billion, and cash on hand was $255.5 million. I would now like to turn the call back to the operator for the question-and-answer session.

Operator

Thank you. If you have a question at this time, please press star, then one on your touchtone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Our first question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Yeah, good morning, guys. Mike, I missed a little bit. Did you say Dodge contributed $100 million in sales in the quarter or $110 million? I missed that.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

I think it was 110.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

One ten.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yeah, 110.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

110. Okay. Okay. And, and can you give us what they contributed in, in terms of backlogs? Because backlog was up sequentially pretty, pretty meaningfully.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

I think it was about $50 million.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

$50 million. Okay. Okay. So did your organic industrial sales rise? Because it, you know, it sounds like everything's going great guns, but did you have any issues that slowed your organic industrial sales at all?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

No. I mean, organic industrial sales are up. Everything's up.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Yeah.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Okay.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Our legacy RBC Industrial business was up close to 26%.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Okay. Okay. I'll look at that. Mike, so let me ask one more. There's kind of a perception out there, I think in the broad market, that, you know, ISM PMIs have dipped below 60. There's maybe a little bit of a growth scare out there, combined with inflation rising. You're not - it sounds like to me you're not seeing any kind of a growth scare in your industrial markets. You're talking about adding capacity and, you know, it sounds like you have some visibility to that as well. Is that a fair characterization?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, as you know, I think we have the capacity to meet demand if we could get the supply chain to support us with the materials we need to execute. Right now, that's a bit out of balance. And so all the work is going into, you know, fixing that supply chain problem. And everybody has that problem, you know, it's, you know... I've listened to the other conference calls. They're all talking about it. And we have it, too.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Yeah. Okay. Understood. And so, maybe one for Rob. So this is the segmentation going forward. It's gonna be aerospace and industrial. And will we get kind of a, you know, the historics for, you know, FY 2022 and FY 2021 for those, for the new segmentation?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

You'll see in the queue that comes out this afternoon, the 9-month period year-over-year for the aerospace defense versus industrial. And then, you know, that'll walk you down the line as you'd expect. And then at year-end, you'll see the full 12-month picture.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Okay. Okay. Okay, thanks, guys.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Good morning, Kristine.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Congratulations on closing on the Dodge deal. Can you provide an update in terms of how integration is going so far? I know it's a little bit early here, but what are you most focused on in the near term that we should watch out for? And is there anything unexpected that has come up so far?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, I would. You know, there's always the unexpected with regard to an acquisition. And I would say the unexpected here has not been material. It's just been sort of normal to changes in ownership. So, you know, I think one of the things that we've had to deal with in the acquisition is that they basically moved their entire corporate headquarters to another site, sort of in December and into January, and they're still sort of settling out that site today. So you know, that's not a normal thing that we you know experience with an acquisition, and particularly one of this size.

So that was, that was a little bit challenging. You know, I think also just getting our computer systems in place, and currently, we have an agreement with ABB to support us with their computer systems until ours are in place. And so that's taking a lot of focus and effort and BTUs. And it's, you know, we're working through it, and it's making the progress it should make.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. So that's helpful color. And then, thinking, I mean, you guys provided a revenue outlook for next quarter. How should we think about the gross margin mix there? Because, you know, you've got your volume mix, but we've also got some of the acquisition noise. How should we think about the normalized level of gross margin?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

So I think for next quarter, this is Dan, for the Q4 , we should expect to see gross margins be at least 1% better than what we experienced in Q3. And then I expect to see that again in the Q1 of the following year. But we'll be able to give you more color on that on Q1 and Q2 of next year once we get on the conference call at the end of the year. But just keep in mind that for Dodge, it's two months in there, and like RBC, it's the two worst months of the year, right? It was November and December, which is packed full of holidays and the least amount of production days.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

I see. And Dan, just to confirm, you said that's a one percentage point increase in gross margin sequentially next quarter versus this quarter, right? That's not a year-over-year number?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yes.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. And then if I could squeeze in one more. What are you guys seeing from a supply chain and inflation standpoint? What are you seeing in terms of unexpected price increases, and how are you able to, or to what degree are you able to pass it through your customers?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, you know, the supply chain for November and December kicked Dodge right in the shin. And, so that impacted their gross margins. I don't think anybody expected to see what we saw, and, but it was what it was. And, we've rectified the situation in January.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Wow! So can you guys provide a little bit more color in terms of what you had to do to rectify that? And, you know, what gives you the confidence of that one percentage point gross margin increase next quarter? Because it's a pretty meaningful jump, especially with the headwind you mentioned.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, we did a few things. One of the things we did was increase prices. The next thing we did was do some account management that we thought could lead to significant improvements.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Great, thanks. I'll pass off to the next person. I appreciate the time, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Morning, Joe.

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay, so maybe just that. I know you gave us some color around aero trends this quarter. I'm curious, like, how did your MRO business trend this quarter? And then can you maybe give us a little bit more insight on the defense business? I think you guys called that out as being a little bit weaker. And, you know, I guess we're hearing from some of the other companies we cover, you know, that U.S. defense is probably gonna be a little bit weaker throughout 2022. So any color there would be helpful.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Okay. So, Joe, what was your first question?

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Oh, just really about the aero aftermarket MRO business and how-

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Okay

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

how that business did this quarter.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, we don't, you know, we don't have much business in the aero aftermarket, but the aero aftermarket that we do have is doing quite well. And so that business is up and approaching pre-pandemic levels. It's not there yet, but we can see it getting there. It's doing very well. A lot of our what we'll call, what they call aftermarket is really, really aircraft distribution. And that aircraft distribution is both aftermarket and also the aircraft distribution supplies small or maybe not so small subcontractors to the major builders. And so they're gonna wax and wane with build rates.

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Got it. That makes sense. And what about on the defense side? Just the commentary around U.S. defense.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

You know, the defense business, you know, we have pockets of weakness and pockets of great strength. And normally, where we have pockets of great strength, we have very complex products that are not easy to make, and that's why they come to us to make them. And sometimes they don't go out the door when they're supposed to go out the door, according to our plan. And that's what happened in the quarter, and we expect to rectify a good part of that in the Q4 .

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And maybe one last one for me. You know, being the new person on the block covering you guys. I'm just curious, just in terms of the disclosures and now that you've got, you know, industrial and aero, you know, much bigger businesses. Like, is there any thought around providing a little bit more detail, granularity around, like, the margins of these businesses, so we can see, you know, kind of like the mix impact going forward, a little bit easier?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, if you, if you could kind of guarantee our competition wouldn't read that report, we would be happy to give it to you. But, you know, it's, you know, it's, it's pretty, it's pretty confidential.

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. No, I can guarantee that. I'm sure they'd be interested in it.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

You will at least get within the segment, you know, footnote; you'll get the definition of the aerospace, defense versus industrial, and then we will have the gross margins for each of the segments as you'd expect. So that'll be in the Q.

Joe Ritchie
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press Star, then one. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess one first, it looks like looking at the segment level data for industrial and aero on the trailing basis, you made some adjustments to last year's number. What moved out of, I guess, the industrial segment and into aerospace?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

The biggest component move, Mike, was the marine business, right? The marine business was historically classified within industrial, but it's a defense product, so it was moved over with aerospace and defense.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Okay, got it. Okay, that makes sense. And then, are you guys planning to give us any more detail on, you know, ongoing costs here for modeling purpose? I mean, I know you have the transaction costs. You spelled out the amortization, but do you have an expectation of what we can expect for integration costs, you know, the full sort of amortization? Were there any other fair value step ups, or do you plan to disclose that just to kind of help us with modeling here?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Yeah, I mean, as we mentioned earlier, you know, we've got about another $6.8 million in the step up of amortization of the inventory. That'll come out in the next quarter. You know, we've incurred, I would say, the majority of the one-time acquisition costs. There will still be, you know, I'd say, $500,000-$1 million of additional costs in the Q4 , kind of one-time costs there. And then the TSA costs, we're probably expecting another $4.5 million next quarter, and those, you know, are bridged out over the 12 months after the acquisition close date of 11/1, and they'll slowly fall off. So we'll have more color to offer on the next call.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

And depreciation, amortization.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Okay.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Is running about $110 million?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

That's right. So depreciation amortization is going to be just under $28 million next quarter.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Okay.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Total.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Okay. Got it. Got it. And are you guys, you know, when you announced this, you talked about $7-$8, you know, EPS range, I guess, cash EPS. I guess I've never seen anybody add back depreciation, and if I did an apples to apples, I mean, you guys did $7.15 in fiscal 2020, adding back depreciation, adding back stock comp. I mean, it seems like that $7-$8, you know, again, adding back depreciation, I know you're trying to get a cash cap, cash number, but you probably should deduct the CapEx, and it almost seems like it's a free cash flow number. I mean, what's the... I've just never seen that before. Just wondering what the thought process there was.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

it's just our view of Cash EPS. This is Dan. It's just our view of Cash EPS. So just taking our net income available to shareholders, and if we didn't have these non-cash items tax effective, what would be the Cash EPS number? So we define it in the press release. We gave you a breakdown, exactly how it's calculated, and it's just a way that we're measuring our performance on our Cash EPS number.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, guys. Sorry, I got on the call a little late, so hopefully this isn't redundant. But trailing twelve-month revenue for Dodge was around $620 million, if I'm remembering right. And I think that's what we basically tracked to this quarter for the, for the two-month contribution. How should we think about organic growth on that trailing twelve-month base or trailing quarter base in 4Q, and how does that compare to RBC organic for industrial?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, I think, you know, I think their organic growth is to some extent muted by supply chain. And their organic growth could be sort of where a roll's organic growth is. We don't have the kind of supply chain issues that they have. We're a little bit more vertically integrated, and as a result of that, we avoid some of that. So, you know, their organic growth will certainly be up double digits. It'll probably be in the low double digits, but it could be better than that if they can get on the other side of these supply chain issues.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Did you say what you expect for your, you know, the legacy business, for lack of a better term, will do an organic growth for 4Q?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

We didn't say it, but-

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

... Would you like to?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, you know, it's gonna be in the upper single digits. That's what we're modeling.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

So, Dodge will actually do better. I thought you said low double digit there, and you're saying upper single digits for your, the legacy business?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yeah.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. And how are you seeing growth for, since they have so much aftermarket exposure, what's their aftermarket growth rate versus OEM? Is that growing faster for them?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

You know, it's sort of an 80/20 thing, where, you know, 80% of their business is what they call aftermarket or distribution market. So it's so biased towards that 80% that the 20% doesn't create much sway. And certainly the difficulty right now is servicing that 80% and servicing it well.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right. You know, I know in general, Dodge has good margins, but are there any product lines you need to reprice or exit there now that you've gotten in to look at the whole portfolio?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, the short answer there is yes.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Is that a, you know, sizable portion of the portfolio, or is that, is that pretty small?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

It's not small, but it's, you know, relative to the size of Dodge. It's not material either.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right. And now that you've been through the factories more in detail, do you see opportunities for automation or robotics to drive some efficiency or productivity, or are they pretty well optimized in terms of that kind of historical CapEx for programs?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

They're, you know, for the most part, I would say, you know, 75% of their factories are pretty optimized. There's still 25% that can do better, and basically, they just haven't gotten to. You know, they've been working through it one factory at a time. So-

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

There's still some upside there.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Gotcha. And just last one: I know there's always a lot of charges and adjustments when you're integrating a big acquisition, but just, I guess, you know, supply chain notwithstanding, when would you expect that we start to see what we can consider more normal free cash flow from the complete portfolio?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

I would say as we enter into the Q1 of next year, you'll start to see it.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yeah, and I think Q4 will be pretty clean, too.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Yeah.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

So, I think you should, yeah, it seems pretty clean slate on Q4.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Can you remind us what you expect the entire portfolio will run in terms of a free cash flow margin, or just what you convert free cash flow from revenue?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yeah, we haven't given that-

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Annual.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

We haven't given that number, but we definitely will at the end of May when we're talking about fiscal year 2023, and we have a full year Dodge baked into our forecast and a full year of RBC baked in.

Steve Barger
Managing Director, KeyBanc Capital Markets

All right, guys. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up question from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Yeah, just a couple other modeling questions. The inventory step up that you gave for the Q3 and the Q4 , does that, does that just stay in the income statement for, you know, kind of that midterm, kind of, kind of time horizon for that $6 -$7 million type of a level?

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

Nope, that'll be it. After the Q4 , we should be all set with that one.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Okay, that's, that's gone. And then just in terms of, you know, you guys put out that adjusted EBITDA margin goal of, I think it was in the mid-30s, I believe. Can you, do you have a sense of what the components of that are? Is it, you know, 50/50 gross margin, SG&A improvements, or any, maybe you could walk us through a little bit of how you intend to reach those goals.

Robert M. Sullivan
VP and CFO, RBC Bearings

I don't have the exact math to tell you, but what I can tell you is that, as Dan alluded to, we're expecting steady, strong gross margin improvement in the coming quarters, which is going to, you know, bleed right into that. And then, you know, the SG&A, you can see the consolidated SG&A this quarter at 16%. As we start to peel another full quarter of Dodge in there, the percentage of SG&A as a percentage of sales will continue to bleed down to the EBITDA line and really benefit that number. So, that kind of directionally will start to take us where we want to get to.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Yeah, and Pete, I think you're referring to also the, you know, the synergies that we were anticipating on the business, and I'd say that was probably broken down 60/40. 60 impact in sales, COGS, and 40 impact in SG&A. And all those programs we've started, but it's only been two months in, right? So, but I think we're more than well on target for what we thought fiscal year 2023 would be on our synergies. So I think we'll probably be ahead of the game for what we anticipated for the first year on synergies. And we'll report more on that on the Q4 , when we have more firm numbers and more to talk about.

Pete Skibitski
Managing Director, Alembic Global Advisors

Great. I appreciate the call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

... Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Mike, earlier you mentioned, you know, my question about unexpected things that you found at Dodge. I guess, like with the supply chain issue, the inflation issue being solved already, and now you guys have had time to look at all the factories thoroughly, is there a reason to change, or is there a change, in terms of your expected run rate synergy of $70 -$100 million annually by the fifth year of the acquisition close? Do you see potential upside to that number or downside to that number from what you've seen so far?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, you know, when we've gone through the factories and got a sense of, you know, where the easy synergies are, and so we kind of wanna line those up first. I think the consideration here is if we decide to use traditional RVC classic manufacturing capacity, what is the best use of that capacity? Is it to, you know, improve the gross margin, which it's -- there's some very obvious things that we could do if we embarked upon that path that we identified.

I think that another alternative and another consideration is there's some growth opportunities in some of their products if they had a more cost-effective way of getting those products to market. And right now, those products are somewhat throttled based upon, you know, cost, price, pressure, and so, they promote them lightly. And there's a lot of upside in the marketplace if those products could be manufactured with a better cost structure. So, yeah, I mean, do we wanna chase the expansion in gross margin, or do you wanna chase the expansion in sales? Because, you know, once you commit to one of those paths, you decommit to the other one.

So we're trying to make sure that we use—we make the best decision possible on what we can do to improve the operating results of the entire company.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

I see. I mean, the net of that, right, is either through the gross margin expansion or revenue growth, you're gonna get some of these synergies, either through cost synergies or revenue synergies. So my, my, my next question would be, on a net basis, is that 70-100 doable, or is it looking like you could do a lot better?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, you know, if I say we're gonna do a lot better, are you gonna make it $200?

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Well, I've covered you guys for a long time, and you always beat expectations, so I'm just trying to find where that happy medium is. But,

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, I-

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Maybe it's too early, you know, but, you know, it can't hurt, it can't hurt to try and ask, right?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Right. Yeah, I think let's leave the goalposts, you know, you know, where they are right now, and, and, you know, we're still working on the first phase of this.

Kristine Liwag
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks, guys.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Thanks, Christine.

Operator

Thank you. And our next follow-up question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Hey, guys. Just one more on the supply chain. I know, I know you talked about initially at Dodge, you know, the $200 million of component costs per year. Has any of the tightness and bottlenecks in supply chain given you the opportunity to accelerate? You know, it sounded like initially you were gonna let contracts sort of run their course, but, you know, presumably with all suppliers dealing with extended lead times and higher prices, have you thought about accelerating the insourcing of those components?

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Well, you know, the major issues aren't anything that we produce. I mean, we don't make steel, and right now, the industry has a real problem getting steel. And so, you know, everywhere at RBC and, to a lesser extent, Dodge, we're moving lead times out because we need, you know, we need to hedge our backlogs with regard to when we're gonna get steel to produce the product. So, you know, steel is... Steel, in some cases has doubled. And, and so, it's, you know, it's something that, I think the entire industry is wrestling with right now.

Michael Ciarmoli
Managing Director, Truist Securities

Got it. All right, great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time, and I would like to turn the conference back over to Dr. Hartnett for any further remarks.

Michael J. Hartnett
Chairman, President and CEO, RBC Bearings

Okay. Well, appreciate your attention and your comments and questions this meeting, and we look forward to speaking with you again. I think it's late May by the time we do this again, and we'll have much more to speak about, and we expect we have some pretty good news by the end of May. So thank you and good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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