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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Dec 1, 2022

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the REX American Resources Fiscal 2022 Third Quarter Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Douglas Bruggeman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Douglas Bruggeman
CFO, REX American Resources

Good morning, thank you for joining REX American Resources Fiscal 2022 third quarter conference call. We'll get to our presentation and comments momentarily as well as your question-and-answer session, but first I'll review the safe harbor disclosure. In addition to historical facts or statements of current conditions, today's conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements reflect the company's current expectations and beliefs, but are not guarantees of future performance. As such, actual results may vary materially from expectations. The risks and uncertainties associated with the forward-looking statements are described in today's news announcement and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q. REX American Resources assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

I have joining me on the call today Stuart Rose, Executive Chairman of the Board, and Zafar Rizvi, Chief Executive Officer. I'll review our financial performance and then turn the call over to Stuart for his comments. Sales for the third quarter increased by 8.5% as we experienced higher pricing for ethanol, distillers grains, and corn oil. Ethanol sales for the quarter were based upon 66.3 million gallons this year versus 69 million gallons last year. We report a gross profit of $11.3 million this year versus a gross profit of $25.2 million in the prior year. For the current year quarter, improved selling prices were offset by higher corn and natural gas pricing. Ethanol pricing improved by 8%.

Dried distillers grains and corn oil pricing both improved by 25% for this year's quarter over the prior year third quarter. Corn cost increased by 17%, and natural gas pricing increased by 56% for this year's quarter compared to the prior year, as inflationary pressures and the impact on commodity pricing from the Ukraine-Russia conflict continued. Corn pricing was also impacted by higher corn basis based upon reduced availability of corn as we approach the harvest season. Gross profit comparison between years benefited slightly from fewer ethanol contracts sold net of freight in the current year, which leads to higher sales. SG&A increased for the third quarter to $7.9 million from $6.3 million in the prior year.

The increase is primarily due to an increase in the number of ethanol contracts that require the freight to be paid by us compared to the prior year, which we classify as SG&A cost. We had income of $661,000 from our unconsolidated equity investment in this year's third quarter versus income of $349,000 in the prior year. The company's interest and other income in the current year increased dramatically to $2 million versus $35,000 the previous year, primarily reflecting increased yields in our cash. The discontinued operations reflected in the prior year numbers are from the refined coal business as we ended those operations on November 18, 2021. There was no impact in the current year.

We reported a tax provision from continuing operations of $1.2 million for this year versus a provision of $4.3 million in the prior year, primarily reflecting the lower level of income in the current year. These factors led to net income attributable to REX shareholders from continuing operations of $3.2 million for this year's third quarter versus $13.3 million in the prior year. Total net income per share from continuing discontinued operations attributable to REX shareholders was $0.18 for this year's third quarter versus $0.85 in the prior year. I would again like to point out all outstanding shares for all periods have been retroactively adjusted to reflect the three-for-one stock split, which was effective on August 5th of 2022. Stuart, I now turn the call over to you.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Thank you, Doug. Going forward, currently in the current quarter, we remain profitable, but crush spreads are still challenging, which our CEO, Zafar Rizvi, will discuss in his segment. We've made significant progress in carbon capture, which again will be discussed by Zafar Rizvi in his segment. In terms of our cash, we have approximately $290 million in cash, very little or no debt. We continue to look for investments in ethanol companies, although nothing is imminent. We're also making major investments in carbon capture, which will be discussed later in the call. We also now can earn meaningful interest on our cash, and with $290 million, we expect our interest income to go up during the current quarter and during the following quarters. We buy back stock on dips.

We bought back approximately 250,000 shares in the quarter. We have board authorization for another 875,000 shares. Zafar Rizvi will now discuss our ethanol and carbon capture operation. Thank you.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Thanks, Stuart.

Good morning, everyone. As I mentioned in our previous quarterly calls, challenging logistic problems caused by issues with the railroad and availability of corn that were slowed down in our production. The availability of corn in the South Dakota due to drought last year and again this year resulted in a decrease in corn yield, which led to an increase in the price of corn greater than the ethanol price. On top of that, the high price of natural gas is also negatively affecting the profit margin in the ethanol industry, as Doug mentioned earlier. The USDA November corn report shows the corn yield dropped 26% in Nebraska and 10% in the South Dakota. Nebraska, about 2.9 million bushels were dropped, and in South Dakota, 78 million bushels were dropped compared to last year.

In South Dakota, where our NuGen Energy plant is located, it increased 13% in Illinois where our One Earth Energy plant is located. Sorry for that. The USDA also reported corn production increase in Illinois, North Dakota, and Minneapolis, and production dropped in all other corn-producing states. The worst affected states are nearly all western states, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas. The November USDA report shows an expected output of 13.93 billion bushels for the 2022, 2023 crop year compared to approximately 15 billion bushels in the 2021, 2022 crop year, a decrease of 8%.

On the bright side, ethanol and DDG export have increased compared to last year through September 2022 at the. The non-food corn oil price continued to increase, and it is expected to increase even more. Ethanol exports September 2022 total 1.12 billion gallons compared to 873 million gallons for the same period last year, a 27% increase. Despite all these issues and difficulties, as long as we continue to source corn at reasonable price and railroad efficiency and logistic improves at this very early stage, as Stuart mentioned, we expect that the fourth quarter could be profitable. Let me now share the progress of our carbon sequestration project. These are the bullet points. The first test well at One Earth Energy was successfully drilled in total depth of around 7,100 feet.

The 3D seismic testing and water movement tests are completed, and we are very pleased with the results. Several other tests and modeling were performed to verify maximum injection pressure, reservoir quality, rock core analysis, expected movement of the CO₂ plume. The test results shows the location is very good target for carbon sequestration. The design of the compression facility is complete. The contract to build the compression part of the facility have been signed and long lead time equipment has been ordered. The pipeline to injection well operator identification number has been received. The work on pipeline FEED study is expected to be finished by January 2023. The Class VI permit for three injection well with a capacity to store 90 million tons of carbon have been completed and submitted.

We continue to complete several other documents required by different government agencies, but most documents that require a lead time are completed or expected to be completed very soon. Once again, this is a highly technical and time-consuming project. It is required considerable time to make progress, but we are pleased that we have started. What we started 40 years ago now has achieved some big milestones. As I also mentioned in our previous call, we are also evaluating several other projects that would increase production, efficiency, and energy saving as well as reduce water consumption at our plants. We believe the completion of some of these projects will lead to a greater benefit under the Inflation Reduction Act passed by Congress. The Section 45Q cash payment for the carbon sequestration increased to $85 per metric ton from $50 per metric ton.

The clean fuel production credit Section 45Z, which is related to the reduced Carbon Intensity score, would provide a much better return on than 45Q. In summary, we are very pleased to announce once again a profitable quarter in a very difficult environment as well as very good progress with our carbon sequestration projects. Hitting these carbon sequestration milestone and achieving a ninth consecutive quarter of positive income cannot be accomplished without the hard work and dedication of our colleagues. We are very appreciative of their efforts on achieving these positive results. I will give back the floor to Stuart Rose for additional comments.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Thank you, Zafar. In conclusion, the ethanol business remains steady, and we believe our potential carbon capture business is going to help significantly by government legislation along with great progress by Zafar Rizvi and his team. We continue to believe that we have among the best plants in the industry. Our locations are good, especially the one that is right in the middle of what we consider the best carbon capture area of the country. More importantly, we truly believe as Zafar that we have among the best employees in the industry. Most companies in the industry, were not or many companies were not profitable.

We had a profitable quarter. We consider that the real reason why we're doing better than most is we consider our employees to be the best. That, I think, separates us in ethanol, and I think you'll see, and we hope that it will continue and will separate us in carbon capture. I'll now leave the podium open to questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press the one four on your telephone. You will hear a three tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the one followed by the three. Once again, to register a question, please press the one four on your telephone keypad. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Jordan Levy with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Morning, all, and really nice execution again this quarter. Maybe I'll start out. Now, you're clearly making good progress on the CCS side. If I think about that project moving forward, along with the clean fuel credit and the IRA that starts, I think, in 2025, maybe could you just help us think about how those two items might play together as we get into some of the out years, assuming CCS progresses and what that means for the business?

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Zafar.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yeah. Jordan, this is, you know, Section 45Z and 45Q. 45Q is a direct payment up to $85 per ton. Section 45Z is a tax credit, which you receive if you reduce the carbon intensity, which is the line right now, most ethanol plants have approximately 70 CI score, what we call it, carbon intensity plan. There is a line which is a 50. If you reduce anything below the 50, you get some per gallon basis tax credit on each gallon you produce. There is a formula to look at it. We are not tax. We just wanna make sure we are not tax expert, but this is what I understand. There's carbon. When you do the carbon sequestration, you reduce approximately 30.4 CI score.

There is about 18 points is for the land use. That also reduce because we are our land use, what happened, we further reduced that 18 points. If you started from 70, and then you reduce by almost 48 points, and then you can reduce your further CI score. If you are able to achieve a zero, which is not that difficult, not that easy, but there is also have to be made a lot of changes in the process and other things which has to be accomplished. As I mentioned, we were working on a lot of these things previously from last couple of years to reduce our further CI score. We are already working on that thing.

If we, for example, if we are able to achieve zero, I'm not saying that we will be or we will not be, then it's almost equal to $1 a gallon of your ethanol production. If we are producing 150 million gallons and we reduce CI score to zero, we can have almost per gallon basis, $1 a gallon that maybe in one location can be as much as $150 million. We are not expert, but that's what we understand at this time.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

I'm certainly no tax expert either, but that's a great explanation. Maybe just to clarify, did you on the land use side of that, did you mention that you're working on something to get that 18-point reduction or is that just a stipulation of it?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

No. When we have accomplished the carbon sequestration, because if we take the carbon all and put it in the ground, that under that formula, we get approximately 30 points for the carbon sequestration we did. 18 points, which is now ethanol has been used. They've used always that when they compare their our CI score, they always add 18 points for the land use. That land use will be automatically will also get the reduction with the carbon sequestration. That's where it adds up. That's what I understand.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

You're basically, you know, you're getting nearly a 50-point reduction just from the Carbon Capture.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yes, exactly.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

None of these, none of these numbers that Zafar is saying include what we potentially the higher selling price of zero carbon or low carbon ethanol.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Right.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

it's another We don't want anyone to put that in their numbers, but that's a real possibility also.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Exactly.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

No, that's-

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

As I said, you know, generally there is a 70, normally 70-72, generally ethanol plants have CI score, which they call it. If you take it 30 point reduction for the carbon sequestration and 18 point reduction for the land. That's a 48. 70- 48. You can see that it's gonna become approximately 22. The line start with the 50 that you have to have minimum 50 and then go down. That's where the comparison is done. It is there a formula which we understand that it will be used.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Next, there's been some headlines on RVOs coming out in the next day or whatever. Just curious your thoughts if we assume mandates for ethanol are roughly held flat over the next three years or so.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I think we are hearing, it's approximately still going to be staying $15 billion for ethanol, which, you know, they may increase the overall to $21 billion. We understand that it's probably going to stay $15 billion for the ethanol, but we're not sure of until it's released.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

One thing that would be important, and we don't know so far the Biden administration's held firm, is no waivers. They have the ability to give waivers wherever they feel like giving them, and administrations have in the past. Biden has been pretty good at very little or no waivers. If it's no waivers, that's actually a decent increase.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yeah.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Hopefully, this export continue to increase. As I said, this year, we can see that we are way ahead compared to last year. If export continue to increase, that will also help us.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Got it. That's helpful. Lastly, I'm jumping around a bit here, but just to go back to CCS Zafar, maybe can you just you went over it in your prepared remarks, but just so we have it, you know, separated out. Can you just talk to kind of the next steps as we move into early next year? I know you mentioned that you've, you know, most of the long, you know, long-term items you've been working on, and the detailed plans, but maybe just, you know, break out what we should be looking for as you move into 1Q, 2Q next year.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yeah, Jordan, as I have mentioned, you know, there's a lot of still work to do because there's a lot of government agencies permits we are still in process applying. Those permits doesn't take that long compared to Class VI permit that could take from six months to 18 months. Other permits, which is required by the Illinois, required by the federal government and other things. We are working on those progress. We cannot start injection well, start even digging the injection well up to the time we receive EPA permit. We are in the process of looking at to starting the bid already to be prepared for as soon as we receive permit from EPA, we should be prepared to start injection well.

There's going to be a lot of work will be happening a lot in next year. Our goal is hopefully, but, you know, this certainly that's our forward-looking statement that we complete this project by the end of 2024. This could take longer, but that's what we are trying to achieve.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Got you. Just because you filed for three permits, I would assume that you're thinking about some third-party volumes there too.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I think at this stage, yeah, at that stage, probably that's what we're thinking because we do not have enough capacity for our ethanol facility. We know there is a lot of demand for the well going to be in the future. We just wanted to make sure is there going to be two extra well will be available. We don't have to dig, you know, start digging them right away. They will be started as needed basis, but we will have already a permit from the EPA to achieve those. If we wanted to start it, we can start it anytime.

Jordan Levy
VP, Equity Research Analyst - Clean Energy, Truist Securities

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Thank you, Jordan.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Sakai with Singular Research. Please proceed.

Chris Sakai
Director of Research, Singular Research

Yes. Hi, good morning.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Good morning.

Chris Sakai
Director of Research, Singular Research

Can you talk more about, or is REX experiencing any logistical challenges, with rail?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I think the main concern which we have is, as you can see, the recently going on that, you know, there is strike, and you can hear it from the strike and all around that during the 2019, 2020, 2021, the railroad laid off lot of people. Then suddenly, you know, these drivers and all those things, demand increase, but there is not enough manpower. We see sometimes that, you know, power is already there, or the power made it to the pro-plants to pull, but there's no driver. They're supposed to pull it on, say, every Monday, they're not there up to Saturday, Sunday. So as these things delayed further to pick up those rail cars, either other containers are not available sometime.

That delay caused If there's a limited storage, although we have increased lot of storage compared to other ethanol facilities, but there is a point reach which your tanks are completely full, then you have to slow down the project or your storages are full. You can't really overflow the ethanol from the tanks, and then you have to slow down and wait for the rail cars to come back before you load it again. That certainly caused the problem of production. That certainly has caused the problem of shipment, and, unfortunately, that's the consistent continued problem at this stage.

Chris Sakai
Director of Research, Singular Research

Okay, thanks for that. As we head into winter, can you comment on how an increase in the price of natural gas will affect profitability?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yes, I think, actually that's really we are already analyzing it. Generally, we try to make sure that we have at least enough natural gas before we get into that plan. But you can see it's, NYMEX is trading today the $6.93, and last month it was $6.35, and last year it was $5.42. So there's a $1.50 is change, and this, you know, changed since that happened. It's consistently, continuously, we see the natural gas, although there is enough natural gas in this country, I think the basically reaction is due to the European situation or Ukraine war again. Since that happened, that's the time this natural gas prices start going up. You know, that makes really major impact.

If we look at it actually in calendar year, it was about $2.08 average. 2021, it was $3.84 average. Now for the this calendar year so far is a $6.64 average. There's this, and we don't know what happened in 2023, but that certainly is affecting the bottom line. As Doug mentioned, there's a 56% increase, that takes away your 56% of the portion of the profit.

Chris Sakai
Director of Research, Singular Research

Okay, thanks for the answers.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please proceed.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Hi, Pavel.

Pavel Molchanov
Director, Investment Strategy - Energy and Climate, Raymond James

Thanks for taking the question. You know, you provided some useful perspective on natural gas. Let me zoom in on corn. When we look at the futures curve, I mean, it basically points to, you know, $5, $6 a bushel practically forever. You know, we went through a decade pre-COVID with, you know, $3, $4. Is $6 corn, in your view, going to be the new normal now on a permanent basis?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I think it seems to me that at this stage, at least the area where we have, you know, CBOT probably going to continue to trade that level. Pavel, the major problem is that area is where you have drought, which I mentioned earlier in my prepared remarks. Those areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas and Texas. Texas is already the deficit corn area, these area is certainly due to the drought. The bases are very high. You can find somewhere bases are 50, 60 or 80. Even we have seen a $1.20 basis for the corn basis. If the corn is going to leave some area like, say, North Dakota this year has a bumper crops. Last year they didn't have that great. Minneapolis has a great crops, that area, and Illinois has great crops.

When you are shipping this corn from one area to other area by rail, the rails will cost about somewhere depending on the destination. If you look at, if you send it from North Dakota to Texas, it's about $1.60 to just to ship per bushel. On top of that, there are going to be a $0.60, $0.70, or maybe $0.80 on basis. If you are delivering $1.60+ paying $0.80 basis, so $2.40 to deliver a corn in those Texas or Nebraska and other area which is further away, it's going to be very difficult for some of these ethanol facility to continue to produce at that corn level price.

Pavel Molchanov
Director, Investment Strategy - Energy and Climate, Raymond James

Okay. Let me turn to a regulatory topic. You know, it seems like it's forever we've been talking about E15 on a year-round basis. I know there is a new bill from Deb Fischer in Nebraska to put legislative authorization on that without going through the EPA waivers.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yeah.

Pavel Molchanov
Director, Investment Strategy - Energy and Climate, Raymond James

You anticipate that bill, has a good chance of passing? What do you think?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I believe this time looks to be is a good chance of passing because all the players are agreed, seems like agreed, I should say. Seems like they agreed that E15 will not be bad idea. If that pass, I think that will be great help. If the pumps continue to supply 12 months in a year, then people will convert that because I have seen some several pumps actually in Illinois, Nebraska, and other area, what they call is E88. They are selling, and you can see the price difference almost $0.15- $0.20 sometime different than regular price. People are using that.

I think if these pumps can produce, sell regular basis 12 months, I think this will catch up more and more, and that will be certainly will increase another 5% ethanol demand.

Pavel Molchanov
Director, Investment Strategy - Energy and Climate, Raymond James

Okay. Then lastly, you mentioned exports and, you know, obviously kind of varies from, you know, quarter to quarter, but your general impression on the export window to China, where do things stand on that?

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

I think that if you look at it, really, we did not see much export to China this year. Mostly, I think we can see that mostly it was Canada was the highest. We produce Canada, South Korea, Netherlands, India and U.K. I think India is certainly moving also rapidly to meet their own demand locally in India, and they are pushing very hard. Certainly Brazil was not a major player this year so far, but we have seen certainly Canada and South Korea and Netherlands step up. We have not seen any major shipment to China this year.

Pavel Molchanov
Director, Investment Strategy - Energy and Climate, Raymond James

Right. Okay. That's consistent with what we're seeing. Thank you, guys.

Zafar Rizvi
CEO, REX American Resources

Yeah.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Thank you, Pavel.

Operator

Stuart Rose, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.

Stuart Rose
Executive Chairman, REX American Resources

Okay. We'd like to thank everyone for listening, and we'll look forward to talking to you at the end of next quarter. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.

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