Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI)
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J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference 2025

Mar 13, 2025

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us at 7:30 A.M. Mike and Chris from Resideo. Thank you for coming.

Mike Carlet
CFO, Resideo Technologies

Thank you.

We'll start off high level, just for those in the room, those on the phone, newer to the story. Mike, could you give us a quick overview of Resideo and how the company's evolved since your Honeywell spin in 2018?

Sure. You know, today, Resideo is an over $7 billion revenue company. You know, we have a gross profit of over close to 20%, EBITDA of close to a little bit over $700 million. You know, and really, we operate in two business segments. We have our ADI distribution segment, really focused on professional integrators in the commercial space. About 75% of that business is in commercial, security being the primary focus of those commercial integrators. You know, over $4 billion of revenue. We're running gross margins in the high teens, EBITDA margins in the high single digits, really focused on those products and solutions that serve those commercial integrators, with about 190 locations globally, about 100 in the Americas, a little bit over 100 in the Americas, 90 around the rest of the world, and a very robust e-commerce omnichannel platform.

Last year, we announced that we bought Snap One, I want to say Snap AV, that's where I originally started, Snap One, which was about a $1 billion revenue, about a $100 million EBITDA business, more focused on the residential audio video side of the business. Bringing those two businesses together really allowed ADI to now have a broader breadth of product solutions and broaden the customer base to serve more residential integrators and commercial. The P&S side, we're really focused on developing and manufacturing a suite of products related to control and sensing, mostly focused on the residential market. Those products provide safety solutions, security solutions, energy solutions. Again, about a little bit over a $2.5 billion business, very strong gross margins over 40%, strong EBITDA margins in the mid-20s.

That relationship with professionals who rely on those products and solutions is really the core of how we think about the value add of that business.

You joined last year as CFO with the acquisition of Snap One. What have your early observations been at Resideo and maybe what surprised you the most?

Yeah, I think first what surprised me, I think, you know, we really talked about the Snap One and ADI integration, but if you think about the Snap product category and what Resideo was doing on the P&S side, I think those products really aligned really well in addition to just that ADI distribution piece. The ADI piece, you know, was really about bringing those customers in, but the product piece, those control products really make a lot of sense. I think what Resideo has been doing and continues to do, very innovative on the product and solution piece of the business, that really can continue to add value going forward. I think the market does not really understand who we are or what we are. You know, you have these two business segments that are clearly vertically integrated, but at the same time, they are different.

One's a distribution business, one's a product development manufacturing business. We'll talk more about that. I think that given that, given the spin from Honeywell six years ago, given the environmental liability, given the focus the company's had on the last four or five years after the spin of focus on really fixing the fundamentals of the business and gross margin expansion, which we've done a really good job with, I still think there's just a lack of understanding, a bit of disinterest, and I think the market just really doesn't value the opportunities that the company has and really doesn't understand it. I don't think people, because of those things, take the time to really dig in and understand what's there, which, you know, I think creates opportunities.

I want to hit on two more topical themes, then dive more into the business segment. First, let's start with macro. I think certainly top of mind right now. The question is, what macro indicators matter most for Resideo and what are you seeing right now?

I think, you know, again, I think what's good is because we have these businesses that operate a bit in two different macro. One is much more commercial at ADI, one's more residential at P&S, but clearly those market drivers are similar. On the residential side, it's by far housing, not necessarily new build housing, but the whole housing resale, remodel side of the business. Probably resale being the single biggest macro driver that we look at, because if you think about it, people don't wake up on their birthday or Christmas and ask for a thermostat or a security panel or a new valve for their hot water heater. These are things that are infrastructure related. They're installed at the point in time when people are doing work on their homes.

Similarly, on the commercial side, you know, these are things that are tied to either a new commercial project, a renovation project. You know, we look at those things very closely. You know, housing seems to be bouncing back a bit, you know, and we'll see what happens from a macro standpoint. Inflation is, I think it's a little bit down as of last week, but who knows what's going to happen with the macro indicators. We were cautiously optimistic coming into this year about the interest rate environment, but resale activity still is very, very depressed, which is the single biggest thing. Even though remodel, the overall remodel index is up a little bit, the resale portion of that is not, and the single biggest piece is how people think about investing in their homes from a resale. We remain cautiously optimistic.

I think, you know, obviously lots of volatility out there, lots of uncertainty that can drive things. We're trying to operate within that environment. I think our guide, you know, thought about a flat to slightly up, but uncertain macro is how we thought about the environment we're operating in and how we're investing against that. As things stabilize, if they stabilize, we'll make different decisions, but that's overall. I think, again, the resale lever in the residential North America market is the single biggest macro factor that I think really we focus on.

Tariffs, the other hot topic, if you will, just could you walk through your exposure? I know it's different for the two segments, and then also how you're positioning yourself to mitigate potential impacts.

It's a day that ends in Y. The tariff conversation is going to change, right? We're trying to think about those things and how we're going to operate. As you said, I think there are definitely different impacts on the two sides. I think we've said that about 50% of our manufacturing on the P&S side is performed in Mexico. You know, that's if you just take a 25% increase in tariffs, you could look at our COGS on the P&S side, you can do the math and see what an impact it would have, but it's over a couple hundred million dollars, everything else being equal just on the COGS piece. We have all the mitigation activities that we've been planning for and thinking about to offset that impact. That's an annual impact, by the way, not an in-year impact.

You know, who knows if that's actually going to happen? In the short term, you know, we're doing things like positioning inventory, running the factories at a little bit different rate to maybe produce a little bit more inventory and position it. We've talked to all of our customers on both P&S and ADI about the potential impacts of tariffs. I think obviously price is a huge short-term lever. When we all went through this, you know, both during the first administration of President Trump, as well as during COVID when the supply chain got all disrupted, I think there was a lot of price activity, and I think the markets generally accepted that.

I think there's price, there's inventory positioning, but we're not making long-term investments right now, because ultimately, if the tariffs come into place and remain in place, and you think that's long-term, you're going to make different decisions on how you optimize your manufacturing footprint. We've got plans around that. We have lots of novels on what we could do and might do, but we're not going to make those investments until we understand what's happening, because, you know, we want to make sure we understand the ROI, we want to make sure the investment, the payback times. All that's out there. We think we could substantially mitigate the impact of tariffs in the short to mid-term just from our price activity and some of those other short-term things we're doing.

Long-term, there would be some investments required to really optimize the footprint, but that'll all be dependent upon what ultimately happens. If anybody has any advice of what they think might happen, you know, I've got a pool that we're running and we'll see. You know, I think everybody is aware of the uncertainty that it causes and trying to operate in that environment.

What about on the ADI side?

On the ADI side, there's a little bit of small exposure to China. We've moved a lot of our production out of China on the Snap side. If you go back, Snap eight, nine years ago had almost 50% of their supply base in China. That is down into the teens, I believe it is. I think there is, we're not disadvantaged. The things that come out of China are the things that is almost 100%. A lot of, you know, the video and cameras come out of China. You know, we think we could pass that price along. It's a relatively small amount. On the third-party product side, we're the same as everybody else.

If third-party products, which is, you know, over 75% of what we distribute, over 80% of what we distribute at ADI is third-party products, you know, we're all going to be treated the same. I think as a distributor, you sort of pass that on because no one's disadvantaged. Everybody just sort of sees that go up and down. I do think then the macro impact of this, you know, just mentioned a lot of price. What's the macro impact going to be if not just us, but lots of other companies out there are passing through price increases as we think about all this? That's, I think, the biggest risk around this. I think we feel pretty good about the mitigation we can perform directly. I think it's the macro impacts that really give us pause to think about as this happens, what the future holds.

Makes sense. Let's dig into the products and solution business first. You have four segments: air, safety, security, energy, and water. Maybe to start, could you just distill down the business into the key product offerings and the primary end markets for these segments?

Yep. We call them lines of business. If you call them segments, the accountant gets a little twitchy. I think let's start with air. In the air business, we are the market leader in thermostats. We market them under the Honeywell Home brand under a license from Honeywell from the spin, but we have the exclusive rights to that brand on the residential side in North America. Those Honeywell Home thermostats are the market leader in thermostats. It's been a relatively old product line. We've had lots of platforms as we talk about MPI, and I'm sure we'll get into that. A lot of our MPI is in that area to consolidate onto single platforms, bring some new products to market. We also participate and lead in a couple other areas such as filtration, indoor air quality, zoning that all provide other areas there.

Air is a very big strength for us. Security, you know, we've always played in the intrusion side of the business. As we think about the future growth there, you know, security is going from detection of break to detection from a video standpoint, and surveillance is the new security in a lot of ways. We are making investments there both in hardware and software to continue to drive that business forward. That is probably the business that's most tied to the resale. If you think about when do people put a new security system in place, you know, it's when they buy a house, somebody comes and knocks on the door, there's a whole industry built around that. That one has been impacted a lot by the macro. You know, we sort of look at energy and water together.

A lot of that is, you know, valves and controls around boilers and heaters and things like that. It's partly an OEM business, partly a distribution business, but it is things that also go into the control and sensing the home. I think on all those products, you know, what we think about is, except for some of that OEM stuff, it's the professional is the customer. And so we're reaching that professional through various channels. We could sell through, you know, Lowe's or Home Depot or retail because that's where the pros are buying some of those products. We can sell through electrical distribution. We have a lot of obviously relationship between ADI and P&S on how we distribute those products.

Ultimately, it's the relationship with the professional that provides the moat for P&S because that professional really wants to rely on professional-grade products that can be installed, supported easily, professionally, allow them to make a profit on. We've always been a great partner to them. We probably haven't invested as much in new products historically as we were focused on improving the margin of the business. I think with the recent reinvigoration of the MPI, I think those professionals are really excited about the things we're bringing to market.

The next two questions are on margins and MPI. Starting with margins, it's certainly been a big priority for you or for the company over the past couple of years. Where are you on the journey and how much more runway is there still ahead?

We are well on the journey, but there's definitely runway. The runways, you know, I think historically, when Honeywell spun the business off, ADI was this nice little self-contained business. The P&S business was a bunch of product lines and lines of business that didn't necessarily operate as one coherent business. A lot of this time was taken about optimizing the manufacturing footprint, putting processes in place to really do that. I think you can see the results over the last few years with that gross margin improvement. A lot of that margin improvement has been structural improvement based upon improvements in the operations of the business. That's where a lot of investment has gone. A lot of time has gone to think about those things. That's not done, but I think we're well on the way for doing that.

Again, that's how we ended up with, you know, about 50% of our manufacturing in Mexico as we thought about optimizing that. I think there's still, you know, a couple hundred basis points of improvement that we're going to see from that ongoing structural improvement over the next three to five years. This is on the P&S side. The second piece of that is obviously the MPI. As we start now investing, shifting our focus from a maniacal focus on, you know, improving the gross margin to a balanced focus of both continuing to improve margin, but also investing in growth and MPI. We think those new products we're launching will allow us to demand additional gross margin. We'll deserve it because of those products. We do think there's additional accretion that will come from that MPI of another couple hundred basis points over time.

You know, we think over a five-year period, if we're thinking 300-400 basis points improvement in margin on P&S is a reasonable sort of, you know, high-level model. We don't have a specific model out there. We're working with Chris, who's our new head of IR, sitting in the back of the room, and I have been talking about the long-term model. We'll get that out there in the next year. I think, you know, at a high level, that's how we would think about it. At ADI, just real quickly, I think there's two things that drive margin at ADI. Obviously, adding the Snap business, the exclusive brands part of ADI, which are proprietary products, has become a more important part of the business. Clearly, those products have additional margin.

Our relationship with our third-party product distributors is always going to be primary. We're not going to be over 50% proprietary products. If we can get a couple more points of proprietary products in there through growth, through adding some new product lines that maybe we don't have, that'll help grow the margin given that increased margin profile there. Our focus on e-commerce, our e-commerce business does have a better margin profile for a number of reasons. We think, again, where we lead in that area, we think that will continue to drive some margin accretion as well.

New product innovation, you've talked about a couple of times, big priority. Kind of where do you see the most opportunity, where are you focused, and just what can you share about the roadmap?

Yeah, I think we launched a number of products in Q4. I think in the short term, what we're focused on from MPI, and again, I think it's interesting, we have products that are decades old. That work, that work, but they're not the, you know, we're not going to be cutting edge, but we need to at least be, you know, aligned. Some of that's just aesthetics. Some of it's platforming. Again, some of it drives the manufacturing efficiency if we can replatform things. I think our main focus is around our air business, our security business, taking our existing product categories and our existing customers and making those investments in products to get them up to speed, up to par, replatform them. That's the short term. That's this year, that's next year, is a lot of focus on those areas.

Those products are being very well received. Our focus is pro thermostats, our Vista security panels, a number of things that are going on that I think are exciting. Longer term, I think, again, taking some of those products and tweaking them to broaden the market application. Very long term, thinking about new product categories that we can enter within those categories, I think, you know, but in air, there's pieces that we're strong. There's pieces where we can use some MPI to expand our product breadth around that. Those are things that we're looking at and considering as we go forward. If you look at our guide for this year, you know, one of the things that's there is you might see that the EBITDA margin is not growing as much as you might expect given the gross margin.

It's because we plan for tens of millions of dollars of investment in the MPI line. Obviously, as we think about the uncertain macro, that's levers we can pull. If things are great, we can lean in a little bit more heavily. If things slow down, we can, you know, lean out of those things. We will continue to look at that and make decisions as we go. You know, there is a significant investment in MPI and some marketing around those products as well that's baked into the guide.

Okay. Moving to ADI, distribution business for you really seemed to gain momentum through the year. It grew 9% organically in Q4. What drove that improvement in growth and what are the trends that you've seen so far in 2025?

Yeah, I think, look, we were thrilled with the 9% growth at ADI. I wouldn't necessarily think about us as a high single-digit grower as a perpetual number. I think, you know, a couple points below that is where we're targeting. Q4 was great. A lot of it driven by large commercial products, our national large integrators working on large commercial products, particularly around the video and access areas as the areas that had the most growth. Those are not our highest margin areas either. While the top line grew, the margin line didn't grow quite as much, which is fine. You know, we're going to see some of that. That is why we have a broad product catalog. That was a great quarter. Q1 of this year, as we think about our guide, you know, won't be nearly as strong for a couple of reasons.

One, one thing we have to really get people focused on is our average daily sales. I think it's a metric we haven't talked about much. I'm not sure we'll talk about it in Q1, but we're talking about it internally a lot because there's two less ADI sales days given the calendar in Q1 this year versus Q1 last year. In and of itself, that's about a three-point drag on year-on-year performance. As everybody's known, there's a lot of weather impacts this year. Rob Aarnes, who runs our ADI business, told me this is the worst weather year he's seen since 2015. Most times, weather impact doesn't permanently hit us. You know, we defer some things. The projects don't go away, but it does then take, you know, a few months to claw it back.

I think we've had, you know, hundreds of lost sales days at the store level because of the weather impacts. That's a couple points as well. The macro remains a little bit uncertain. You know, all that's out there, but we do think ADI should be growing at least mid-teens, slightly above the market cycle. We think we have competitive advantage between the omnichannel business, between our e-commerce business that will allow us to continue to outperform. Again, we think we have lots of opportunity with that Snap ADI integration to continue to bring more products to more customers.

You're obviously very familiar with Snap One. Could you just talk about the strategic rationale behind that acquisition and where you're at with the integration process?

Yeah. Listen, I think it's a funny story in ways. I mean, we met John Heyman, who was the old CEO of Snap One, and I originally met Rob, who runs ADI back in 2017 before ADI was even spun out of Honeywell. Snap was going through a spin or recapitalization from PE firms. Rob came in, and we both walked out of the office, you know, our team and his team, and said, "This deal should happen." We don't know when it's going to happen, but this deal should happen. You know, the complementary aspects, how we think about future growth, what Snap was trying to do with our products. We had the significant majority of the custom integrator residential folks. We thought commercial was an entry for us. ADI had all the commercial integrators. They were looking at residential. They're in the security side.

Snap's in the AV side. All those things just fit really, really well together. You know, we talked to each other every year or two, you know, do the dance and talk about what the opportunities were. The strategic rationale of bringing together, you know, again, those e-commerce-oriented business, bringing together the residential and commercial aspects, bringing together the AV and security aspects all make this a really, really good fit for what we're looking to do. We're thrilled it happened. I think from an integration standpoint, it's going great ahead of schedule. I think the cultures around both businesses are very similar. The customer-first aspects, the focus on serving the professional, making their life easy, allowing them to be more profitable is all very, very common between both platforms. You know, we're ahead of our plans on synergy, which is obviously important.

I think ultimately this deals, you know, while there's, you know, tens of millions, if not a hundred million dollars, I think we've said $75 million is our target. We're ahead of that target. We were ahead in year one. I think the real focus is on the customer. How do we make the customer experience better by bringing these things together? We will get the cost synergy just from, you know, the hard work that everybody's doing. The real win in this is if we make the integrators, the professionals' life better, make them more profitable, have them continue to view us as the supplier of choice and coming to us time and time again. That's the upside of the whole deal. That's not baked into anything right now.

Okay. Just one question we get a lot is around the competitive environment for ADI. How would you characterize that today? Really, where do you feel like ADI is most differentiated from the competition?

I think the environment is not, it's certainly not less competitive. I think it is more competitive in a number of areas. I think ADI's differentiation is really in two spots. One, I think that the e-commerce investments that they've made historically and continue to make really differentiate us. We are, I think, the leader from a commercial integrator e-commerce-led platform, which is interesting if you think about the world. You know, we've all been buying on Amazon for at least a decade, if not longer. You know, a lot of these integration firms, a lot of these professionals have continued with historical ways of purchasing. I think we really have seen a paradigm shift in the last few years.

I think ADI has really been in front of that paradigm shift of servicing the integrators, how they want to be serviced, serving those firms either through e-commerce, through the local store footprint, making sure those things are there. I think we do it better than anybody else. Really that omnichannel experience of bringing it there. I think our product catalog obviously is really beneficial. I think in our exclusive brands, we're able to deliver products that allow the integrator to make more money, make higher margin on products that are really, really good, also provides that competitive advantage to the market.

Maybe we'll tie the two segments together. A few questions on financials and happy to open it up to audience questions as well. I was hoping you could talk about the tie-ins between ADI and P&S, the synergies you have. Do you feel like there's more that you could do between those two businesses in the future?

Yeah, I think there's, if you think about the way the business runs, they are different business models, right? P&S is definitely a product development manufacturing business. We have, you know, double-digit manufacturing footprints around the world right now on that side of the business. We have a huge engineering team developing products. And it's thinking about that. Then we take those products and we distribute them and get them into professionals' hands through a variety of ways, through retail, through distribution. ADI is a distribution business. Completely different dynamics around those things. The vertical integration is clearly there. You know, ADI's biggest supplier is the P&S side of Resideo. The biggest customer of the P&S side is ADI.

That relationship, that vertical integration, allowing us to capture all of that margin under the four walls, allowing those communications to happen in a different way because we're all in the same house is really a great benefit of having it here. The businesses operate somewhat separately. We do have a bunch of shared services, things around, you know, cyber and accounting, you know, the typical things. The operations of the business are definitely distinct. I think as we go forward, I think that synergy continues to be there. I think whenever there's product development going on, you know, what ADI has is they've got a great relationship with those integrators. They're talking to them. They know what they need. They can take that communication channel, bring it back to P&S, allow it to inform the MPI aspect, allow it to inform the product development.

I think that's always the hardest thing in a product company is really making sure you're hearing the voice of the customer. What are the real solutions the customer needs? How do we meet those needs? I think the ADI-P&S relationship really brings that customer voice in a way that many companies don't have because of that close relationship. They are not the same business. We always, you know, think about that. Rob Aarnes and Tom Surran, who runs P&S, great relationship. We have a, you know, executive team meeting every week. We all sit in it. They each are running their business, you know, sort of independently within those two things with that close vertical integration from the things we do together.

Makes sense. A couple on financials, and then we'll close. The 2025 outlook you gave last quarter assumes revenue and gross margin growth across both segments this year. What's giving you the confidence in that, just given the current macro environment? Could you talk to some of the assumptions you're making behind it?

Yeah, so, you know, our guide did not assume anything around tariffs because I do not know how you assume anything on tariffs right now. Obviously, as things come in, we will think about adjusting as we go forward. You know, outside of tariffs, we think the macro is sort of benign. You know, it is not great. It is not bad. As we think about, you know, a benign, a, you know, conservative bit of uncertainty, we think about the things we have done over the last couple of years, the great foundation we laid in 2024, the pivot in the business from really just being focused on margin to really thinking about growth in the business and the MPI aspects and some investments we are making there. As we think about the significant investment that we are making this year in MPI, we really do think that drives that top line.

The new products that we've launched have had great reception from the market, from the integrators. We launched some of them last year. Obviously, we've been doing research around those products. We've heard what the customer wants. As long as the market doesn't, you know, contract significantly, we feel really good about, you know, some top line growth, continued margin expansion from the things that we've been doing. Again, we continue to optimize that manufacturing footprint. We continue to optimize the supply chain. We think the exclusive brand side of ADI gives us, you know, additional levers as well. It is those foundational things that we've done over the last few years on the margin side, the things we've done last year to start invigorating some growth that really give us a high degree of comfort on the guide we put out there.

It sounds like you're working on this, so you may not have a direct answer today, but I'll ask. Just a lot of moving parts this year with macro tariffs, but how do you think about the longer-term growth opportunity margin framework in perhaps a more normalized environment?

Yeah, I think that given the investments we're making, given the competitive positioning we have, particularly, again, our relationship with those professional integrators and how they view us as the provider of choice in many areas, we think that we should be growing, you know, a couple points above the macro. We're going to be a cyclical business, right? We're tied to housing. We're tied to resale activity. We're tied to new build. We're tied to the commercial market, real estate market. All those things are going to drive our business, right? We're not a big consumer discretionary spend. We're not, you know, going to come up with some sexy new, you know, iPhone product that everybody's going to run out and buy for Christmas, right? I think within those things, we think we are well-positioned to help grow the market. We think we're well-positioned to capture share.

We should be growing a couple points above the cycle based upon the investments we're making. We should be doing that continuing for the next, you know, three to five years in a way that allows us to continue to enhance gross margin. I think the stair step we're making in SG&A and R&D this year, it is a stair step. I don't think it comes back out. You know, some of it's one-time in nature, but we can argue that some of it will come down and that it's one-time to catch up. My view is we're sort of establishing a new baseline for R&D investment based upon the things we're doing this year.

I don't expect it to stair step up again, but I do expect it to sort of maintain at the levels we're putting out there, which again, I think allows us to generate some of that incremental growth as we go forward.

Could you just talk to some of your key priorities on capital allocation?

Yep. I think, you know, very aligned with the legacy team, Tony, who is the prior CFO. You know, he and I spoke many times as I've been onboarding. Very aligned that, you know, the primary goal of the company is deleveraging. We think having our leverage, our net leverage below 2x is the right spot for us to be. If we're not there, we want to have visibility to get there and get there quickly. Until we're there, you know, we think that's the primary goal. I say that, you know, we went and deployed, obviously, a lot of capital last year for the Snap One acquisition. I think within that capital allocation, if there's great M&A opportunities, we'll look at them. Again, the primary goal is deleverage.

Once we get that leverage down below 2x, we'll think about other things we can do, returning capital to shareholders, you know, other M&A opportunities that are out there. Primary right now, deleveraging by building cash on the balance sheet more than any other way.

With the Honeywell spin in 2018, you were gifted with a Honeywell liability. Could you just explain what that is and, you know, how you treat that internally?

Yeah, I always tell people there's a 30-second version of this, a 30-minute version of it, a 3-minute version, a 3-hour version. I'll start with the 30-second version. That's probably more than 30 seconds. Honeywell, when they spun it, basically said, we're going to put an indemnification on the spun company to indemnify Honeywell for any environmental liabilities Honeywell has. Has nothing to do with us, nothing to do with our real estate, nothing to do with our footprint. If Honeywell has an environmental liability at one of their facilities anywhere, we indemnify them for 90% of that. It's a contractual relationship. It is what it is. It's put in place of the spin. It's good financial engineering by them. You know, that's it is what it is. It is basically capped at $35 million a quarter. It runs for another 17 years.

It was really 25 years. There's 17 years left. The accounting is very complicated because it's tied to Honeywell's environmental accounting and how we indemnify them for that, which is, you know, which is the right GAAP accounting. In reality, I always view it as, you know, ignore everything on the balance sheet, even ignore how we treat it on the P&L. It's $35 million a quarter for the next 17 years. We actually deduct, so that's $140 million a year. In our adjusted EBITDA, that $140 million runs through our adjusted EBITDA. We can talk about it as an adjusted EBITDA. We can talk it as a balance sheet item. Everybody asks what's the right way to do it. There's no right way. It's however you want to choose to model it.

Just think about it as $35 million a quarter for the next 17 years of cash outflow. That is the cap. It could be less than that. It could be less than that. That is just sort of model it at the max payout. It is likely to be the case in my mind. We just think about it that way.

I have a closing question. Any questions from the audience before we go to it? Maybe I should have done this earlier. All right.

Yeah, the products business that you said, I think 50% is manufactured in Mexico. How are your competitors set up? Is it a similar dynamic for them?

It depends on the product line. There are some where we're a little bit advantaged for the ways that our competitors are. There are some product lines, lines of business where we're disadvantaged. It really is a mishmash of what's there. As we think about what we're doing for mitigating activities, obviously we're considering the competitive environment that's out there. With four lines of business and a lot of different categories, it's not going to be the same for each one.

Okay. Can you also, I don't know if CD&R did like some transaction in December, or can you just explain a little bit their role in the company?

Yeah, so when we did the Snap One acquisition, CD&R put a $500 million PIPE into the business to help fund that transaction. That gave them about an 11%-12% stake on an as-converted basis on that, what's that, on their investment. What they did in December is they basically entered into a forward purchase agreement with, I think it was UBS, that allows them to continue to buy up to about 19.9% of the business on the open market. They did it that way so they would not have to disclose every single purchase, I think. I think it was really just them showing, hey, we believe in this business. Not just showing, I think really, I do not know if they are buying, like you know as much as I do. I think they really do believe, obviously made an investment.

Obviously, like I said upfront, I think they believe that there's opportunity here for, you know, value creation. I think they're looking to make decisions to buy out in there in the open market. That was a mechanism to allow them to do it.

Thank you.

Yeah, just a quick one. If you had clarity on the tariffs were going to stay and they were going to stay at a certain amount, what would be the process to bring manufacturing actually back, you know, what you do in Mexico back to the U.S.? And could you get the labor? Can you, like, how long would that take?

I don't know if we'll come back to the U.S. Some of it might.

It wouldn't necessarily.

It would not necessarily. I mean, there are lots of places to go. You have to think about that, you know, the overall economic impact. What are the labor rates? What is the supply chain? Where are the, you know, the raw materials coming from? Where is the right labor? What is the transportation cost? You know, I think there are, again, different product lines, different categories are going to have different outputs. We have a big facility right now that we were also gifted by Honeywell in the spin-off in Minneapolis, Golden Valley. It is over a million sq ft that, you know, is not being fully utilized. Again, will we use this very old location? Maybe not. There are lots of opportunities there. We have manufacturing in Europe. We have a location still in the Far East. We are talking to contract manufacturers and JDMs about things we would do.

I think the solutions that everyone's going to have is going to be a mishmash of things. It is not just about the Mexico tariffs. The reciprocal tariffs are out there. It really is understanding the overall impact. What's the ROI of the investments? Back to the question that was asked. Where are we disadvantaged? Where are we not? Where is the market going to absorb a price increase long-term? Where do we think short-term we're not worried about it, but long-term, you know, do we think we need to really position that? It is very nuanced. We've got a great supply chain team, a great integrate ISC team that's really leading on this and putting great thought into it. We just can't do anything until we get some clarity at least.

Right. The answer is not necessarily bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

Not bring manufacturing. Again, I think there could be some.

Could be.

There could be some. Absolutely. There are already things we're doing. Like there's some software that we currently flash in Mexico. We can do that in the U.S. right now, which would bring some back. There are things you can do, but I think the long-term is really uncertain.

Thank you.

Awesome. We have one minute, so I'll wrap up with this. You've been here for about a year now?

Seven months.

What are you most excited about over the next three to five years for the business? What do you think is the most underappreciated part of the story?

Listen, as an investor, like everybody else, I just really think this story is not understood by the market. I think the maniacal focus of the company over the last four years on the margin accretion has really changed the structural margin profile of the business, has changed the profitability of the business. I think the investments we can now make in growth, even I would say when I started seven months ago, growth was not that it was not mentioned, but it was way down the list of things that the companies worry about from a value creation standpoint because the low hanging fruit was improve those operations. I do think, you know, as Tom came in about a year ago on the P&S side, a little bit over a year, talking about MPI, talking about growth as a part of the business, I think is important.

I think between the market confusion over the Honeywell spin, we're getting further away from that. It's stabilizing. People will start understanding the story. We'll start generating some growth. If we get a little bit of help from the macro as housing, particularly resale, gets returning to a normal level, I think there's lots of things we're doing that can drive a lot of value creation.

Great. We'll leave it there. Thank you.

Thank you, everybody.

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