Okay. All right. I think we can kick things off. Great. Well, thank you all for joining us. My name is Davis Sunderland. I cover sustainable energy and mobility here at Baird with my partner Ben Kallo. Very happy to have the team here from Resideo who's going to present. We're going to do a few slides to kick things off and then turn over to a fireside chat. We have joining me CFO Mike Carlet and the global head of IR, Chris Lee. Thank you guys very much for being here. It's a small enough room. I think we can probably get away with just raising hands. Please feel free to interject whenever if you have questions. With that, maybe I'll turn it over to you guys.
Great. Well, I'll kick it off and go through the disclaimer. It's there. Don't say anything we shouldn't. At a glance, when we talk about Resideo, today, Resideo is a two-segment business, that are indispensable partners to the professionals that install our products throughout both residential and commercial establishments. Company was formed about eight or nine years ago. It was a spinoff from Honeywell. We still have the Honeywell Home brand as one of our most important brands. Really there's two segments. One is a product business, P&S, very focused on residential systems of the home. If you think of the home of a system of systems, the plumbing system, electrical system, the HVAC system, the security system, we participate in all those systems of the home. We build our own products, we manufacture our own products. We innovate around products, and bring those products to market.
Primarily, again, selling them to the professionals who install them into new builds, residential remodels, reconstruction, a little bit of commercial, primarily domestic. ADI is primarily a distribution business, more focused on the commercial side on things like low voltage security, access control, intrusion, fire, other safety products, but also with a strong presence of high-end residential and things around audio, video, residential also sold to professionals on both sides, both the commercial and residential integrator who installs those products. By way of background, we're in the process of splitting the company in two. I think most people are probably aware of that. I'll be staying with the ADI business as CFO. Chris will be staying with the product business as their Global Head of IR. We're in the process of recruiting a CFO for the product business. We'll probably tag team this a little bit.
We'll let Chris talk more about the product side. Since he'll be staying there, I'll talk more about the ADI side. We both love both of our children, and we both can talk about either one, so don't ask us which one is prettier, okay?
All right, just real quickly on P&S, we're a leading manufacturer of building products that are focused on residential sensing and control solutions. A lot of you may be aware of our products. You might use our products. These are products like a thermostat, a smoke and carbon monoxide detector, our security systems. We have leading market share in a number of the products that we choose to play in, and we play in a fairly large serviceable addressable market of about $40 billion. As Mike said, we believe in focusing on the systems, the core infrastructure systems of the home and our products controlling those core infrastructure systems, the plumbing, the HVAC, the electrical, the security.
We think we have a unique position within the marketplace given the breadth and depth of our product portfolio alongside a professional customer moat of over 100,000 professionals supported by a channel moat of key distribution partners that can touch all of us in this room and many others worldwide at an end user level. If you take a look at some of the numbers, we've shown the Q1 results. If you harken back to the prior page, P&S is roughly a $2.8 billion revenue business that's throwing off a low 40% gross margin profile and a mid 20% EBITDA profile. With that, let me turn it over to Mike.
Thanks, Chris. As we said, ADI is a leading global wholesale distributor of low voltage products, primarily security, audio, video solutions, other things around it. Mostly on the commercial side, again, the legacy ADI business, again, with a high-end residential piece as well. We have both proprietary and third-party products. High teens % of what we sell is our own exclusive branded product. Those are products that we are innovating on, that we contract manufacture. We don't manufacture them ourselves, but it's all done through contract manufacturing, JDM manufacturing, but we bring our own products. Again, mostly focused on distributing third-party products. We have an expansive network of over 1,000 manufacturers of third-party products that we bring to market.
We have an omni-channel solution where we are looking at our business both from our footprint of stores, over 100 stores in the U.S., with a very robust e-commerce business on top of that work very closely together to make sure that our professional integrators can buy the products they need, how they want to acquire them, how they need to, and have them ready to install wherever they need to install them. Very similar to the product business, very focused on integrators. There's also about 100,000 integrators. They're not the exact same integrators. There is some overlap between the two sides, there is also a different set of customers to some extent between both, very focused on providing solutions to the professionals that install those products. About a $1.2 billion business in Q1.
Think about that, multiply by four, it's pushing $5 billion, just under $5 billion run rate of business. Gross margin's a little bit over 20%, EBITDA margin's in the low to mid single digits. Mid single digits. Low mid single, above 5%. Actually get there.
Awesome.
Okay. Just before we close out, the company has been recognized by a number of different publications and organizations. Not on this list yet, but you may see in the very near future another notable piece of recognition that measures revenue scale vis-à-vis the Fortune 500. You can also see clearly in the middle the recognition from Forbes as a trusted and best company to work with, or work for. We're really proud of all the recognition that we've been afforded by many different constituents here.
I think with that, Davis, we're going to the far side.
That's perfect. Awesome. Well, maybe I'll try and direct ADI to you, Mike, and P&S to you, Chris. Maybe just first at a high level, if you could talk just about the genesis of why break things up, what led to the split, where we are in the split. I think it was about this time last year when we were talking about synergies between the two businesses, obviously you guys have decided to split them up. Just context on that would help frame the conversation.
Sure. Chris and I actually joined the company about the same time, a little bit over two years ago. About two years ago. When we looked at the history of the business, and we talked to the board as we were coming on board, these are two really good businesses, but they operate very independently within Resideo. They've done that for a number of years. It's funny, I always say, if you went to the ADI sales kickoff, the only time the word Resideo is mentioned is when the sales lead for Resideo gets on stage and talks about being a supplier to ADI. Otherwise, ADI, they're wearing ADI shirts, they're tattooed ADI. Everybody's got the color. They wear the colors, which is great. One's a distribution business, one's a product innovation and manufacturing company. One is primarily focused on residential, one's primarily focused on commercial.
They are different businesses with different capital needs, with different governance needs, and so having them under a common roof, Honeywell spun them out together for a particular reason back eight years ago. Today, when we've looked at the businesses, and have for a number of years, we really thought they'd be better off standalone. It provides more clarity to the markets. It lets investors make a decision which one of those business types do they want to invest in. What are the macro drivers of each one that are somewhat different in areas that people want to underwrite? We've always said if the opportunity presented itself, we would think about separating them. Again, they operate very separately.
We had some legacy liability issues with Honeywell from the spin that had prevented the company from being separated in the past. We settled those liabilities last year, and we were able to announce the fact that we were going to separate them. We've been moving down that path. We, in fact, filed the Form 10 for ADI just a bit ago, showing the standalone results of ADI. We announced that the spin would happen between middle of Q3 and middle of Q4. We announced that we would have our investor days sometime in July in anticipation of that. Really, we're having the investor days in July thinking that it will be in the early part of that timeframe. We gave ourselves a little bit of range. Between credit market uncertainty, we never know when something's going to happen between making sure we're operationally ready, right?
Everybody asks, "What can stop this from happening?" Nothing's going to stop it from happening in total. If an IT person walks in my office and says, "Hey, we can't pay people." We got to make sure we can pay everybody. Again, everything's green, we're on path, but we just want to make sure if something comes up, we give ourself a little wiggle room. We think it'll be earlier in that timeframe, not later.
Maybe just one other question on the spin. I think, Chris, we'd talked previously about there being some special dividend or some special financing going on to pay back shareholders of Resideo or the Remain Co, I should say. Could you just talk a little bit about that and I guess broader capital allocation as it relates to the two?
Sure. Actually, we've posted some of the decks that we're using for our credit processes on our investor relations website. They're out there to be seen.
Specifically, a Form 8-K-
Yep.
...filed on May 11th, where you'll see the two financing decks we're using.
In that, you'll see that ADI is going to raise $1 billion of third-party debt, $900 million. This is all intended. We're in the process, but this is what we think will happen. That'll be about half Term Loan B and half unsecured bonds. We'll pay $900 million of that $1 billion over to P&S, Remain Co. Remain Co will use that to delever and pay down their leverage. That's sort of the cash flows and capital structure. I think from that, our commitment is to push our leverage levels to the right level. They'll be a little bit high coming out. Certainly manageable. From a management standpoint, fine. From a market standpoint, we want to get them down a little bit.
I think for the very short term, we're going to look to de-lever a little bit and then look at other capital allocations go forward from a prudent allocation basis.
Sure. Well, maybe with that as context, just on the span and where you guys are, maybe diving a bit deeper into each of the segments. I'll go first to you, Mike, and then to you, Chris. Just could you talk a bit about the drivers, maybe the cyclicality of each of these businesses? Obviously, some of these products would be consumer discretionary, and just kind of what you're seeing as it relates to health of the consumers in this market. I guess there's a lot weaved within there.
Yep.
I'll leave it at that for now.
I think ADI is an incredibly strong business that is primarily executing with those integrators. If you think about a long history of mid to upper single-digit growth, driven by continued expansion into the commercial markets, innovation, if you think about the commercial security, it's not really discretionary in today's day and age. It's a market that is incredibly important when you look around places like this, whether that's that exit sign, whether it's the alarm system, whether it's the security system. All those are things that, as you think about the need for those products, isn't going away. In fact, given the advances in some of the technology around security, continues to be driving some of that forward. ADI is just a phenomenal execution machine. It has done a really good job.
Had some things over the last six or nine months where we did a once in a lifetime change in our ERP system.
Which is phenomenal going forward. Creates a little bit of headwinds in the very short term, but really drives that business forward. On the residential side, ADI bought a company, Snap One, about two years ago. About a quarter of the business is residential focused, really very much on the high end residential AV area, which is a much more discretionary purchase. That has been a little bit more challenged more recently. Certainly, we know what's happening with housing. It's not doing great. The more discretionary it is, the less well it's doing. It's actually interesting. When Chris talks about P&S, actually done really well through that cycle because smoke detectors and thermostats are not really discretionary purchases. The things that ADI is selling, a little bit more discretionary at the very high end.
We're looking forward to that housing market improving a bit, and we think that'll be a great tailwind for us in the future.
Yeah, that's a great point to jump in on P&S. I think to first frame, the majority, around 80% of P&S's revenues are estimated to come from the residential market. As Mike said, the products that we sell and that many people use are non-discretionary. If you have a smoke detector, those have a natural life and I think, between replacement cycle, between remodeling a house, between repairing a house, it drives a need fundamentally for that type of product or many of our products. It's also supported by a regulatory environment that's supportive of safety and security and your comfort, right? Comfort and protection. I think when you look at the macro drivers impacting the P&S business.
Certainly, we have exposure to the residential macro, and specifically when you break that down, it's the repair and remodel market, it's the new construction market, and then it's a replacement market. I think we have more bias and exposure to R&R, and specifically, we would prefer remodel because it's more lucrative. Given today's macroeconomic environment and customer behavior, we're more in a repair cycle currently. Even amidst a tough residential macro backdrop over the last couple of years, P&S is outperforming market expectations. I think that's fundamentally driven by our shift in strategy toward designing and manufacturing differentiated solutions. Best-of-breed product that we're using to introduce in the market and to tactically attack certain segments of the market in which to gain share and to grow margin.
You touched on this a little bit, Mike, and I know there's an Investor Day coming, so I don't want to steal thunder from that. With that as a caveat, looking at the profile of these two businesses, and again, I'll go first to you, Mike, and then to you, Chris, but thinking about visibility at the spin, whether it be in terms of backlog or pipeline, I guess that's part one. Then also thinking in the longer term about the margin profiles of each business that will be left. If you could talk about how what we've seen in the past differs from what you expect going forward.
Yeah, definitely. First, I think both businesses, if you think about the segments, we have segment EBITDA sitting up there. They'll both be burdened both by allocating out the corporate as well as some incremental piece. We'll see that step down a little bit from an EBITDA standpoint, but still very strong. I think that we believe both businesses have both margin, gross margin, and EBITDA margin expansion opportunities. Chris will talk about P&S, but when you look at ADI, specifically, gross margin expansion driven by continued expansion of our exclusive brands portfolio, continued expansion of our omni-channel presence. Those two things drive gross margin, which flows through to EBITDA. We've always said internally, as a segment, we had a long-term sort of a big hairy goal of getting to 10% double-digit EBITDA margins.
That is going to be a little bit more challenging given the fact we're burdening now that segment with that incremental standalone cost. I still think we'd like to see over the very long term we can get there. Not to steal the Investor Day thunder, but we still think we have hundreds of basis points of opportunity in front of us in the three- to five-year horizon, driven by continued expansion of exclusive brands, driven by continued rationalization of the footprint. We've driven a lot of synergy from the Snap acquisition. Excuse me. We're not done with that yet. The last thing that's out there really is the fact that we still have a lot of markets in the U.S. that have duplicate locations, where we really don't need two stores in every one of those markets.
We're looking to rationalize that, consolidate stores where it makes sense. That'll drive some operating efficiency as well. Again, as we said, we think some of the headwinds we've had from housing will turn into tailwinds at some point in the future. All that's going to continue to drive margin forward. We feel real good about that opportunity.
Yeah. We'll double-click on this more so at Investor Day, but I think the profile I'd like to leave you with for P&S is from a growth standpoint, think of it as a low single-digit grower in the current environment. That's going to be driven by new product introduction, where we can gain both volume adoption and a little bit of price gain from a margin standpoint. I think, though, the bigger driver for margin expansion at the gross margin level is around continuing to gain structural efficiencies in our manufacturing and supply chain footprint. We have a global manufacturing footprint and a pretty wide and diverse supply chain. We have opportunities to re-platform and drive greater amounts of efficiency, especially in the context of an operating scale that's many tens of millions of units produced in any single year.
That's obviously beneficial to the margin as we are able to achieve that type of efficiency. I think the other thing to point out on gross margin is as we continue to design and manufacture new products, they're more margin accretive, especially relative to the old design and construction of our products. I think there's embedded uplift that's driving what we estimate is, and we'll give more clarity to this at Investor Day, but somewhere around 300 basis points- 500 basis points of margin expansion over the next five years at the gross margin level. To pick that down to EBITDA, I think you should expect P&S to invest. We have reinvigorated the innovation culture at the business.
We have a fundamental belief to spend R&D dollars to develop new products for future growth. We also look to obtain operating leverage. I think that'll likely result in a lot, not all, but a lot of the gross margin expansion to drip through to EBITDA.
You mentioned the global footprint. A question that has come up very frequently in terms of both C&I businesses and residential businesses is just the impact from tariffs, shipping logistics disruptions, all kinds of the things going on at the global level. Again, with the caveat that it changes sometimes very frequently, every week or every day, sometimes there's something new to deal with. I'm wondering if you could just talk a bit for each business about what the tariff impact may be or what you're seeing as far as additional costs that you maybe have or have not been able to pass on to customers.
You go first.
From a P&S standpoint, I think first on tariffs, we are fortunate to gain an exemption from the USMCA treaty. We do have a large manufacturing footprint in Mexico as part of our philosophy to nearshore production to the markets we sell. Since the majority of our revenues are derived from North America, the production for much of that sales is in Mexico. To your point, we follow the geopolitical landscape pretty closely. Everything that we hear and see right now looks like the USMCA treaty will continue to be maintained. I think in other aspects, there's some recent news around Section 232 tariffs. They really didn't have a lot of impact on us when they were first updated earlier this year because we had received exemptions for specific products covered under Section 232.
From a cost impact, on just a general net basis, we don't have a lot of exposure to tariffs and those tariffs we are paying are relatively immaterial. I think to round it out, just given your question around the geopolitical landscape, we certainly have signaled in our last earnings that we intend to raise prices this quarter, in the second quarter of 2026, to combat some of the inflationary cost pressures, largely around fuel for freight. There's a little bit of exposure to things like memory chips or other cost aspects being impacted geopolitically. We think, on a net basis, it is immaterial to the margin. There will be a little bit of cost leakage, especially in Q2, as the increased pricing will lag the costs. For the second half of the year, we believe that we will fully cover the exposure with the price increase.
Mike?
Yeah. Similar at ADI. Again, as a reminder, most of what we sell, the vast majority, is third-party product. As we get those costs passed on to us by those third-party product providers, we pass them on to our customers, as does everybody else that distributes those products. In fact, in the short term, really good distributors take advantage of that situation a little bit and, as those price changes are announced, they pass them through quickly, but you're still carrying inventory at a lower level. In the short term, we actually benefit from some of this in the very short term. That actually happened to a much greater degree last year in the second quarter and into the third quarter. If you think of all the initial tariffs that came out last year, price got passed through immediately.
We were carrying inventory at that lower acquisition cost. There was a bit of a bubble that we're lapping in Q2 and into Q3 where we had incremental profitability dollars margin last year, that pushed it up a little bit, that we're going to be lapping. Q2 does have that challenge from a lap standpoint. We are raising prices slightly as some of the incremental costs are out there, but it's not a material event to us, and we think it's small and can be covered by everything that's out there. Other tariffs on the residential side, our exclusive brands, we do source a lot of that out of Asia. Not a ton out of China. We've really decreased our reliance on China a lot over the last few years, and so China's a small part of it.
We don't think we're competitively disadvantaged at all from a tariff standpoint. Like everybody else, we pass those costs along.
I want to get to a question on the remainder of the year outlook. Maybe just one other quickly on the footprint of the business and I guess what it will look like post-spin. Is there anything else that you guys are seeing as opportunities to maybe prune further or, I assume no further M&A during the spin process, but any thoughts on that and what the footprint could ultimately look like?
I think, listen, both companies on a standalone basis will have their own capital allocation, will be able to make their own decisions. Today they generally do, but again, it's a combined company, so there is a little bit of arm wrestle for dollars once in a while. Doesn't happen a lot. I think that, as you said, in the very short term, very much deleveraging will be the story. I don't think you should expect any M&A soon, but we think there are M&A opportunities, whether it's category expansion, whether it's customer acquisition, geographic expansion for both businesses. We view them more on the bolt-on type of view. We're not looking for transformational acquisition opportunities. They're both out there. Other than that, I think you can expect more of the same. As we said, most of these companies operate pretty separately, they'll have separate governance.
Investors will make their own decision. I wouldn't expect radical change in either business as a result of the separation.
Mm-hmm. Anything to add?
No, I think Mike covered for both companies.
Perfect. Well, maybe turning to 2026 outlook, again, with lots of things going on under the surface and Investor Day upcoming as a caveat, I wonder if you could just talk about the current outlook, if that assumes any changes in consumer spending behavior or a, I guess, particular view on the macro environment or any other considerations there.
Yeah. First when we give our guidance today, we're still guiding Resideo as a total company. Right? We know we're separating, Investor Day will give more clarity to each individual company's standalone performance. Our guidance does reflect the total company. Now, as we think about each business underneath that, there are some different drivers around each, as we'll try to touch on them a little bit. On the ADI side, there's really a couple things going on. First of all, we talked about that headwind from a gross margin standpoint that we have right now. We also know we had some pull ahead last year into Q2 from a revenue standpoint. Excuse me, our revenue comps in Q2 last year were up 9%. Q2's going to continue to be a challenge.
If you look at the trends of ADI, we think those trends continue through Q2, and really the end of Q2 being the inflection point where we expect to see performance beginning to improve, driven by a couple of things. First of all, last year's comps were very easy. We know the revenue, we know the run rate of revenue. Our daily sales average that we're on right now drives a very significant amount of growth on the back half of the year. If nothing else changes, and generally our forecasting and guidance philosophy is just don't assume changes in the macro. Don't assume changes in things we can't control. If they're absolutely blatantly right there, we'll try to incorporate them in. Outside of that, we're just going to assume that the macro stays relatively consistent from wherever we are when we give guidance, and that's what we've assumed.
We haven't assumed any changes in consumer behavior, housing, macro. That could be good or bad, right? Depending upon what happens out there.
Sure.
That's all there, but we do expect a good bump in revenue year-over-year given the run rate we're on. We do think some of the commercial recovery activities that the ADI team's executing, as we said, last year, as we put our new ERP system in, we think we lost a little bit of wallet share with some customers. We don't think we lost any customers, but as you're going through a change like that, people sometimes wander a little bit off the reservation and go test out a competitor. We're in the process of winning that back, and we're not assuming we get it all back, but we're assuming we bounce off the low point that we're at and get a little bit of that back.
We know that over the last couple of years, we made a lot of investments in the company.
Some of that driven by these changes we're making, some of that driven by the Snap integration. We generated a ton of synergies, but we also know we've made some investments and we're looking to take tens of millions of dollars of costs out of the business this year that will impact the second half of the year. We'll have that benefit in the second half of the year, which will all be very accretive to the ADI performance in the back half of the year.
I think for P&S, I think the low single-digit growth profile that I mentioned before, I would encourage you guys to continue to think that for 2026 because that's what's baked into the guide. I think if you look at Q1 as a starting point, it was good growth that we would tell you is not sustainable. I think it's not sustainable because Q1 had some weather good guys, which are temporary in nature. I think there were core fundamental pieces of the growth, like the new products that were introduced last year benefiting the Q1 growth this year.
We do anticipate with more new products to come, you'll see the impact into the P&L probably six to nine months after their launch because it generally takes a little bit of time for those markets to be seeded in the market for our professional customer base to learn about the features and functionality, play with the products before they choose to invest and bank their franchises on our products. That all said, when we look through the rest of the year, like I mentioned, we think it's an LSD growth profile for the rest of the year. I want to signal that in the second half of this year, we have already baked into the guide a little bit of risk associated with a large security customer who has signaled that they could lower some volumes with us. This is not a new dynamic.
We'll definitely work with that customer, with whom we have a very good relationship with, to see if there are ways to mitigate some of that potential risk. Being prudent, we've conservatively modeled that in. From a gross margin and an EBITDA margin perspective, first on gross margin, Q1 was the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year gross margin expansion. As I mentioned earlier, we do fully have conviction on continued gross margin expansion. However, the path may not be linear. So there could be a quarter sometime this year where that streak of consecutive year-over-year margin expansion could get broken, but then would reinflate to be up and to the right. As I said earlier, a lot of the gross margin expansion does strip through to EBITDA.
Hey, Chris, one last thing just to call out. You've said this is, there were four extra sales days in Q1 this year. There's four fewer sales days in Q4. Just as you think about that's just kind of the calendar and correcting the 4-4-5 calendar. That does flip. We got a benefit when you talk about the 8% growth at P&S, 9% growth at P&S in Q1. About a little bit less than half of that was driven by those incremental sales days, even more at ADI, which has very much a daily sales cycle. Just keep that in mind when we think about the back half of the year, we lose those four days.
With just a few seconds left, I think we'll wrap it there. Thank you guys very much for your time.
Awesome.
Thank you for joining us.
Thank you.
Thank you.