Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 21, 2021

Welcome to the RLI Third Quarter Earnings Teleconference. This call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Aaron Dieffenthaler. Sir, please begin. Thank you, Chelsea. Good morning, and welcome to RLI's Q3 earnings call for 2021. Joining us today are John Michael, Chairman and CEO Craig Cleothermis, President and Chief Operating Officer and Todd Bryant, Chief Financial Officer. As usual, Todd will kick things off by walking through the financials. Craig will follow with additional comments on current market conditions and our product portfolio. We'll then open the call to questions and John will close with some final thoughts. Todd? Thanks, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, we reported 3rd quarter operating earnings of $0.65 per share. The quarter's results were negatively impacted by hurricanes, Most notably, Hurricane Ida, but solid underwriting results excluding catastrophes as well as favorable benefits from prior year's loss reserves Positively impacted earnings. All in, we experienced 18% top line growth and posted a 94.6% combined ratio for the quarter. Year to date, our combined ratio stands at 88.9. From investments, income advanced 8% in the quarter as continued strong operating cash flow, $116,000,000 in the quarter $280,000,000 for the year have been additive to our invested asset base. Earnings for Maui Jim and Prime were up 3% in the quarter and while not core continue to be a benefit to earnings. Realized gains were relatively flat in the quarter, while changes in unrealized gains and losses on equity securities We're impacted by varying amounts of market volatility on a quarterly and year to date basis. As mentioned in prior calls, Large movements in equity prices in comparable periods could have a significant impact on net earnings, which you can see in both the quarterly and year to date comparisons 2020. Aggregate underwriting and investment results pushed book value per share to $27.63 Up 13% from year end inclusive of dividends. Craig will talk more about premium in a minute, but at a high level, all three segments experienced growth As we continue to take advantage of favorable market conditions in most areas of our business. From an underwriting income perspective, This quarter's combined ratio was 94.6% compared to 99.5% a year ago. Both periods were impacted by elevated hurricane losses. Hurricane losses in the quarter within our pre announced range and totaled $34,000,000 net of reinsurance. Dollars 33,000,000 of that is from our Property segment and $1,000,000 Impacted Casualty, where a number of our package policies are reported. Net of bonus related impacts, the events totaled $28,900,000 Or $0.50 per share net of tax and added 11 points to the quarter's combined ratio. From a prior year's reserves perspective, All three segments experienced favorable development. Casualty led the way with $26,000,000 of favorable loss emergence spread across the majority of product lines. Moving to expenses, our quarterly expense ratio decreased by 2.7 points to 37.9 as did general corporate expenses. The declines are due in part to reductions in certain bonus measures, but are also reflective of the increase in net earned premium and improved leverage on certain expenses. Turning to investments. It was a flat total return quarter with income offsetting modest price declines in the portfolio. Overall market yields remain subdued, but we have seen a little uplift recently as 10 year yields inched back toward the highs we saw in late March. Operating cash flow remains the primary support for growth in investment income, which turned positive in the quarter. There have been a few shifts in the allocation over the course of the year, but our strategy continues to focus on putting money to work in nearly all environments. Apart from the capital markets exposure, Investe earnings were up slightly from the comparable period in 2020 with Maui Jim and Prime contributing $5,400,000 $4,400,000 respectively. All in all, a very good quarter and strong 1st 9 months of the year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Craig. And before I start, I'm going to try to ask Chelsea maybe if she would go back and maybe read the forward looking Statements that I think we maybe forgot to do at the beginning. I didn't do any forward look, Craig. So as long as you don't either, we're going to be okay. I'll make my comments assuming that those have been implied in red. Yes. So thank you, Aaron and Todd, and good morning, everyone. As Todd mentioned, a very good quarter in light of Hurricane Ida and smaller catastrophes that impacted our customers and our results. After factoring in these events, we were still able to report a sub-ninety five combined ratio for the quarter and more than 10 points of underwriting profit year to date. At the same time, we are growing our portfolio through rate and exposure, reporting 18% top line growth for the quarter And 21% year to date. We continue to see rate increases across most of the portfolio, although there is some tapering in spots. We are maintaining a good flow of business that meets our discerning appetite. The business we are underwriting is generally stickier with higher renewal retention And new business hit ratios. We are monitoring impacts from the supply chain and labor shortages as well as derived inflation. Our talented underwriting and claim teams are working diligently to mitigate any resulting increase in loss costs by identifying risks, Sharing information across our businesses, adequately pricing the tailored coverage we provide and taking advantage of any market disruption. Now to some more specific comments at the segment level. In casualty, we reported an 86% combined ratio for the quarter 84% year to date. We were able to achieve an overall casualty rate increase of 9% for the quarter, which fueled a good portion of our 14% growth in this segment. Growth is widespread across all major products in our portfolio and much of the rate continues to be driven by excess liability products, particularly commercial And management liability coverages. Our transportation business continues to bounce back with increased bookings in public auto, But it's still challenged by driver shortages. Overall, wheels based rates continue to be up, but rate increases are more moderate in size. Despite the overall growth in the transportation space, we still find the trucking class to be increasingly competitive as top line and rates Decrease for the quarter. Claim counts continue to climb to previous levels and more jury trials are being scheduled. We will remain vigilant for social inflation and work to mitigate it through our investment in superior talent, training and triaging of claims. In Property, we reported a combined ratio of 127 for the quarter and 105 year to date. The excess and surplus Wind product is the driver of the unprofitable results. Hurricane Ida was one of the most intense and damaging hurricanes to strike the United States in recorded history. From day 1, we have had our teams on the ground assessing losses and helping our customers get back into business. About 90% of our claims reported have been in the state of Louisiana as the New Orleans metro area is one of our peak zones for wind exposure. The event along with general market conditions and expected inflation have kept cat rates up double digits for the 8th consecutive quarter. Overall, top line growth was 32% for the Property segment in the quarter, driven by exposures and a 7% segment rate increase. All products in this segment realized growth. In surety, we reported 75% to mine ratio for the quarter. All three of our major products in this segment have grown profitably. Overall, our top line grew 10% in the quarter. Despite economic challenges, both the commercial and contract surety markets remain very competitive. We are back visiting producers in person And continue to invest in capabilities that make it easy to do business and help our producers grow with us. There are more construction opportunities in the market And we are supporting our contractors as they win this business. We will continue to expand our writings with existing clients and producers And invest in technology, where it is the differentiator. We had a quiet quarter on the claim front despite the added risk from supply chain and labor issues. Overall, another profitable quarter with solid growth. Our underwriting experts are ready to participate where disruption and market pricing permit us to flex our underwriting prowess At rates that are commensurate with the risk. As always, we are alert to the uncertainty associated with inflation and supply chain disruption. We will continue to do what we do best, focus on the basics. We will diligently underwrite quality accounts, Assess evolving exposures require adequate valuation of insured property and walk away from underpriced business. We are good stewards of our capital, but also of our insured's risk and reputation. I want to thank our ROI associates for delivering great results And value to all of our stakeholders and for helping our customers, especially in times of need. I'd now like to open it up for questions. Thank you, sir. And before we get started with the Q and A session, please let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, RLI management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward looking statements are subject to certain factors and which could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the risk factors described in the company's various SEC filings, including in the annual report on Form 10 ks as supplemented in the Form 10 Q for the quarterly period ending June 30, 2021, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has filed a Form 8 ks with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing 2nd quarter results. RLI management may make reference during the call to operating earnings and earnings per share from operations, which are non GAAP measures of financial results. RLI's operating earnings and earnings per share from operations consist of net earnings after the elimination of after tax realized gains or losses and after tax unrealized gains or losses on equity securities. ROI's management believes these measures are useful in gauging core operating performance across reporting periods, but may not be comparable to other companies' definitions of operating earnings. The question and answer session will begin now at this time. Please stand by for your first question. Our first question will come from Collin Johnson. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. It looks like a relatively large quarter over quarter jump in earnings of Prime Holdings this quarter. Is there anything in particular that drove that acceleration? Collyn, this is Todd. I would say not outside of just continued revenue growth. I mean they've grown quite a bit. And just like us with our growth you're seeing more Being realized through earned premium through revenue. So outside of that growth, no, there really isn't anything. Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then as you kind of continue to grow the balance sheet, leverage ratios have gradually declined. Not that leverage, I think, is a huge consideration or part of the story here, but as we approach the 2023 maturity of the $150,000,000 senior notes, Just curious, could you share how you all think about your capital structure going forward? Yes. John, it's Todd. Certainly, you're right from a leverage standpoint. We're low from that perspective because we have grown capital As much as we have. So it's something we talk about. We tend to be conservative there. There certainly is room to increase The leverage and something we still are talking about and we'll look to Make some decisions as we move through to 2023. Great. Thank you. Those are my questions. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Schmitt. Hi, good morning. Could you discuss how much of your growth in the casualty book is coming from E and S lines? I guess that would mainly be General liability and excess liability. But are you seeing standard riders for kick more business into that market or what are you seeing there? Well, Jeff, it's Craig. E and S business is growing at about the pace that the rest Of our casualty portfolio is growing maybe a little faster, but not a lot faster. I mean all the products in there are specialty products. Even though they aren't maybe not E and S products, they are less regulated than other products. So But the formal definition of E and S, I guess, is growing about the same pace. Casualty probably a little less at a little slower pace than the property business there. I mean, the property rates obviously continue to climb at a little bit faster rate than the casualty rate. So our underwriters are taking it Try and take advantage of that. Yes. Okay. And then just looking at the Acquisition expense ratio, if you go back, I think it was 34% historically, 33% last year, year to date It's 32%. Is that really just kind of a changing business mix that's driving that? I mean, how should we think about that run rate going forward? Is 32 The right level. Well, yes, some of it is change in the mix. You're right about that. If you think in terms of if our divisional side of the house is and home office too, but that's not in the acquisition, is half of Our overall operating expenses and a lot of that is people as you can imagine. So we're going to leverage people a bit better or should As we continue to grow earned premium, you've seen that a bit. I think if you look in the totality, right, of the expense ratio, we were down a couple of points Full year which I think is a better way of looking at it. From a full year basis last year, you're seeing some improvement I know roughly another point this year. So there are some things that we can leverage a bit better, but you're right, it's reflected a bit of mix of products And that's where the opportunity is. Right, right. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question will come from Meyer Shields. Thanks. On the construction surety side, If we have a combination of a worker shortage and rising materials inflation, does that have any impact for surety losses? Meyer, this is Craig. I mean, potentially, yes. Obviously, any delay In the construction of the project, can cause at least the principal or the To put the principal in claim, however, we typically have opportunity to work our way out of that. The other thing that Offsets that it's also very difficult to find a replacement contractor to do the work. So a lot of times they just want to continue with the contractor they had. It's just a matter of A little bit of delay. There is some understanding, I think, of the fact that there is a labor shortage. I think a lot of them want the construction to be done Correctly, well done as opposed to in a shoddy way. So they would rather us Finish the project with skilled workers as opposed to unskilled workers. So there's a lot of working things out like that and a lot of the contracts do have Ways to pass on the extra costs associated with completing the project. So the increased cost of materials, a lot of times it's passed on To the person that's paying for the project. I think Meyer, if you look to We're probably a little bit elevated. Again, if you go back and look from an underlying standpoint over the past year and a half or so From the loss booking ratio on the surety side. So I think that uncertainty, whether you call it COVID last year and Some of the things Craig was referring to this year. There's recognition of that. Okay. Yes, perfect. That's what I was looking for. And then I think Craig, in your comments, you mentioned, I guess, a shortage of drivers in transportation. Is there a way of assessing how good drivers are now compared to, let's say, 2019, so more apples to apples excluding COVID? How much shorter they are? Is that what you say? How much more of a shortage? Is that what you're asking? Really, driver quality, in other words, is Yes. To be a group of overall drivers, are they worse than they were to you? Yes. I don't think we're probably in a good position to be able to assess, I mean, The general population of drivers, I mean, obviously, we're going to continue to be very picky. I mean, we're looking for professional drivers to get into the To the public automobiles, the buses and the trucks that we insure, that doesn't mean that the general population isn't evolving. I did see an article The other day about letting 18 year olds behind the wheel of a big truck. I don't know that's the target market for us. So I certainly would expect given the shortage overall and the fact that there's fewer people wanting To go back to work for various reasons and people choosing to retire a little earlier than maybe they would just because the lifestyle choices Has created certainly more risk on the road, I would say, in regards to large vehicles. Okay, perfect. That's what I need now. All right. Thank you. Our next question will come from Scott Heleniak. Hi, good morning. Just wanted to first touch on the property premium growth, which Pretty significant. You talked about your rate increases are pretty good 7% or so. But just wondering if you could touch more on the opportunity you're seeing there just By account and geography, you see that growth continuing to 2022. You think this is more short term. And then also is there any kind of change in mix in terms of more or less cat exposed property, You know, if a business written recently, just any detail there would be helpful. Sure, Scott. This is Craig. I mean, we're seeing growth across the portfolio at double digit growth rates. So, I mean, we are seeing probably more opportunity on our E and S side of the house, particularly on the hurricane side in the Southeast where you've seen the catastrophes Yes. As well as there's the inflationary impact that I think everybody is starting to realize it's costing more To replace these buildings, particularly in the Southeast is where it's being built. We're not seeing it as much like on the Quakeside of the house, I mean, we are getting rate on the Quakeside of the house, but certainly it trails what we're getting on the hurricane side. It's what people are familiar with and they Remember that we've had big hurricanes, so it's easier to get the rate on that side. I would expect that we're going to continue to see rate And probably some both exposure and rate growth in the hurricane book. But we are seeing growth just to be clear And our Hawaii homeowners book is still growing at double digit rates. I mean, there is some hurricane exposure there, but most of that is fire exposure on the Hi, Lance. And our Marine business is within that group too and it's maybe not as cat exposed as our E and S business, although it is cat exposed, but not as cat exposed. So I think we're expecting to see continued growth across The property portfolio because of the Okay. Sure. And so the Southeast hurricane, is that something that you're You feel like there's a little more opportunity than normal, right, given where rates are? Or is that just something you don't want to take on the cat exposure or just doing it at kind of a measured pace? Yes. Scott, I mean, if we can grow at adequate premiums, which we think currently We're there, but if we could continue to get rate and continue to get rate adequacy there, obviously that's evolving given the cost of Reconstruction down there, so the bar has gone up down there in regards to price. But fortunately, we've been able to get more price. Certainly, we think that's an opportunity. And when I say Southeast, probably, I mean, the opportunity is more non Florida down there right now than it is in Florida. But I mean, we have Room in Florida if we'd like to grow, if the rates allow us to. Okay. That's helpful. And then Craig, you mentioned in your comments some tapering of rates in a few areas. Is there any specific lines that you could call out on that? And is there any specific lines that are holding up better than you thought? Yes. I mean, most of the excess casualty stuff, I mentioned would have been like the commercial excess in the E and S space, which is a lot of excess of contractors, by the way. And then our D and O business or management liability business, the rates at least for this quarter seem to hold up more than I thought they were going In the wheels based businesses, you're starting to see a little, I mean, it's still increases, but we were getting double digit increases and they're now Mid single digit increases, so that's really where I've seen it fall off. Some of the other places in where we write, which is smaller casualty business with lower limits, The rates never went up that much. They were going up 3%, 4%, maybe 5%, and maybe they're a point or so lower than that right now. So that's what we're talking about in regards to moderation. Okay. Yes. And then lastly, I was wondering, Todd, you mentioned seeing a little bit of incremental yield potential. I mean, obviously, that's 10 year treasury is going up a little bit. It's not where it was 2, 3 years ago, but what is your new money yield now? What are you seeing in the marketplace Versus existing portfolio yield. What's the spread on that? I don't know if you have that handy. Yes, Scott, it's Aaron. We're probably in the low 2s versus upper 2s for what's in the portfolio today. Okay. Still a ways to go, right, to narrow the gap. So okay. Yes. We'd like to close the gap with Horizon continued rise in yields will take that trade as we've mentioned before in terms of Bond price is going down, but being able to invest at higher rates. Craig has asked the underwriters to keep throwing operating cash flow Aaron, it's right for the portfolio. It's been a help. It's been a big help. Yes. I hope they keep doing that. All right. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Inglis. Hey, good morning folks. Craig, I've got a question for you about your thoughts and views about Climate change, something everyone's been talking about. What is ROI's view about climate change impact on your book of business? And what have you What has that led you to do over the last 3, 4, 5 years? And what do you think it will lead you to do going forward? Can I speak to an underwriting question from the lines of business, geography, whatever? So I've been dying to wait for that question. But No. I mean, our policies obviously, our policies are renewable every year. Obviously, we're very watchful of the impact of climate change. I mean, it's very difficult for us to measure the impact. Fortunately, we are in a situation where we get to reprice our accounts every year. And I'm not a scientist, so I can't really comment on the quantify the impact, but certainly we are watchful. And if we continue to have severe hurricanes and storms and events As a result of climate change, I mean, obviously that's got to be factored into what it costs to ensure those locations. Okay. Thanks. That's all I had. Thank you. There are no further questions. So I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. John Michael. Thank you. What a great business We are in. We're able to help our customers Get back in business from these the hurricanes and other catastrophes like this And yet still are able to post a very satisfactory quarter, Mid-90s combined ratio, we had excellent growth during the quarter and An excellent beat of the analyst expectations. So with that, we'll talk to you again next quarter, Some of us will and we'll leave it at that. Thank you all for joining. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to access the replay this call, you may do so by dialing 1-eight eighty eight-two zero three-eleven twelve with an ID number of 9,884,611. This concludes our conference for today. Thank you all for participating and have a nice day.