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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 3, 2023

Operator

Good morning, welcome to Rapid Micro Biosystems' fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you'll need to press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Beaulieu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Beaulieu
VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Good morning, thank you for joining the Rapid Micro Biosystems fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Joining me on the call are Rob Spignesi, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sean Wirtjes, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. A copy of the release is available on the company's website at rapidmicrobio.com under Investors in the News & Events section. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that many statements made during this call may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Any statements contained in this call that relate to expectations or predictions of future events, results, or performance are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements relating to Rapid Micro's financial condition, anticipated year-end cash balance, cash runway, and future revenue and system placements, expectations for business development and growth, customer interest and adoption of the Growth Direct System, expectations for our new RMB Nucleus Mold Alarm, and the potential impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and the coronavirus pandemic on Rapid Micro's business. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

For a list and description of the risks and uncertainties associated with Rapid Micro's business, please refer to the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 24th, 2022, as such risk factors are updated in our subsequent filings with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors, and you should be aware that these statements should be considered estimates only and are not a guarantee of future performance. This conference call contains time-sensitive information and is accurate only as of the live broadcast today, March 3rd, 2023. Rapid Micro disclaims any intention or obligation, except as required by law, to update or revise any financial projections or forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. On today's call, I will begin with a summary of our Q4 performance and then discuss our growth strategy and why we believe that the actions we have recently taken position Rapid Micro for a return to solid growth in 2023. I will turn the call over to Sean for a more detailed discussion of our financial results and our guidance. Total revenue was $4.4 million in the fourth quarter and $17.1 million for the full year. We placed two new systems in the fourth quarter, including one to a new top 20 pharma customer.

These results are in line or better than our January pre-announcement, as well as the guidance we provided in August and reaffirmed on our third quarter call in November. On a cumulative basis, we have placed 125 systems, including 103 fully validated systems, and have sold over 3 million consumables, driving strong recurring revenue, which grew by 40% to $11 million in 2022. Customers are clearly using the Growth Direct, which speaks to the strength of our value proposition and the robustness of our business model. 2022 proved to be a challenging year, with our performance impacted by customer site access limitations and our own execution not meeting our expectations. In response to these challenges, we launched a comprehensive action plan to improve execution, drive efficiencies in the business, and enhance performance.

As we look forward to 2023, our confidence stems from the improvements we have made in four key areas of our growth strategy. The first is accelerating Growth Direct System placements. The second is developing and commercializing new products. The third is expanding our gross margins by leveraging both internal cost initiatives and scaling the business. Fourth is the prudent management of our cash balance, which we recognize as one of our most important assets. Accelerating Growth Direct System placements remains our highest priority, and we have enhanced not only our sales processes, but also our customer experience and service organizations. We have added focused resources and launched enhanced training programs and new sales methodologies. We are expanding our lead generation and marketing capabilities, and we have equipped our teams with new sales tools. We continue to expand our focus on key accounts.

This is important as we partner with our larger customers to support reference selling and in the development of scientific white papers and technical training webinars. Last month, we held our annual global sales meeting and the team is excited about the scale and scope of these efforts. In 2023, we expect to attend over 20 events and conferences around the globe. Building on the success of the Growth Direct Day, which held for both current and prospective customers in the fourth quarter, we are planning additional events globally in 2023. We are also planning to meaningfully increase the number of in-person customer events for Growth Direct demonstrations and system training at our Lowell and Lexington, Massachusetts locations. These sessions are focused events that seek to deepen our customers' knowledge of the Growth Direct System's capabilities and help them more robustly understand its value proposition and use cases.

We continue to have a robust funnel of system placement opportunities, which includes a strong mix of new and existing customers. Our expanded focus on key accounts is important, as these customers make up our largest opportunity for multi-system orders within our funnel. By product category, biologics, including cell and gene therapies, make up the majority of our funnel, as well as global opportunities within the CDMO segment. Geographically, opportunities in the U.S. and Europe continue to make up the majority of our funnel. We are excited about the traction we are gaining in the Asia-Pacific region, including a new customer win in the fourth quarter. We look forward to sharing highlights of our performance in this region with you over the course of 2023. Another major part of our growth strategy is the development of new products.

We view innovation as a way to leverage a Growth Direct platform, increasing our value proposition to our customers, creating barriers to entry, and importantly, accelerating revenue growth. We were pleased to exit 2022 with momentum in our new product development efforts following the full market release of RMB Nucleus Mold Alarm. Mold Alarm is a software product that allows for the early detection of mold in the manufacturing environment and gives the Growth Direct System the ability to differentiate between mold and bacteria. Customers are especially interested in differentiating between the two, as mold can grow quickly and require a significant and costly remediation plan. Mold Alarm is capable of alerting customers to the presence of mold in as little as one day.

Following the full release in December, we are executing against our commercialization plan, which includes fully training our sales and service teams and partnering with several of our larger customers for deployment across their networks. Turning to our rapid sterility program, we continue to make steady progress with product development, including ongoing beta testing with one of our existing top 20 global customers. The sterility products will consist of a new consumable for the Growth Direct System, so again, leveraging our platform technology for growth. Sterility testing is typically the final step in the drug manufacturing process before the product is shipped to the market for patient use. The legacy method can take 14 days or longer, and we are targeting 5-7 days for final results and even faster to first detection, which will allow customers to release product significantly faster.

Lastly, we are nearing the completion of our manufacturing expansion in our Lexington facility. This site will include a backup consumable manufacturing line and a Growth Direct demonstration lab for current and prospective customers. We are looking forward to hosting customers at this new facility this year. As we begin 2023, we are encouraged with the progress and execution of our growth strategy to accelerate system placements and further new product development. Customer engagement and site access has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, which allows our teams to work more closely with customers, understand their micro QC workflows and challenges, and better demonstrate the manufacturing and regulatory benefits of the Growth Direct System. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Sean to discuss our fourth quarter performance and our 2023 outlook. Sean?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported fourth quarter 2022 commercial revenue of $4.4 million, which compares to $4.9 million of commercial revenue reported in Q4 2021. We placed two Growth Direct Systems in the fourth quarter compared to three last year. Product revenue, which is comprised of systems and consumables, was $2.8 million in Q4 compared to $2.9 million in Q4 last year. Consumable sales grew approximately 20% in the quarter and offset the impact of one fewer system placement compared to Q4 last year. Service revenue was $1.5 million in Q4 compared to $2.0 million last year. We completed the validation of three systems in the quarter, bringing total validated systems to 103 at the end of 2022.

While Q4 revenue was lower than last year due to less validation activity, service contract revenue increased approximately 40% due to our higher base of validated systems. Fourth quarter recurring revenue was $2.9 million, representing an increase of nearly 30% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, driven by growth in both consumables and service contracts. Non-recurring revenue was $1.5 million in Q4 compared to $2.6 million in Q4 last year as a result of one fewer system placement and lower validation activity. Turning to gross margins, product margins were -$2.4 million in Q4 compared to -$2.7 million in the fourth quarter last year. The improvement was a result of continued progress on our consumable manufacturing efficiency initiatives despite unfavorable product mix.

On a sequential basis, product margins were consistent with Q3. While system margins were slightly negative in the quarter, due mainly to lower system revenue and reduced production volumes, they improved meaningfully compared to Q3. Consumable margins declined in Q4 on both a year-over-year and sequential basis due to unplanned downtime on our automated manufacturing line. Service margins were -$188,000 in Q4 compared to +$48,000 last year. The decline was due to lower validation revenue as well as higher spending on personnel, travel, and materials associated with supporting a higher level of systems under service contracts. On a combined basis, our fourth quarter gross margin percentage was -59%.

This was relatively flat compared to Q4 last year with better system margins and benefits from our consumables efficiency initiatives offset by unfavorable product mix, unplanned manufacturing downtime and consumables, and lower service margins. We continue to see some inflationary headwinds in certain material, freight, and labor costs, they did not have a meaningful impact during the quarter. Moving down the P&L, total operating expenses were $14.7 million in the fourth quarter, consisting of $4.1 million in sales and marketing, $3.4 million in R&D, and $7.1 million in G&A. This compares to total operating expenses of $12.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The increase was mainly due to $0.8 million in severance employee benefits and retention related to the restructuring plan we announced in August, as well as $1.0 million in expenses related to the strategic review process we announced in August and concluded in December. Net loss was $16.4 million in Q4. This compares to a net loss of $14.6 million in the fourth quarter last year. The higher net loss in Q4 this year was primarily due to higher operating expenses as a result of the non-recurring items I outlined a moment ago. Net loss per share attributable to common shareholders was $0.39 in Q4 2022, compared to a net loss of $0.35 in the prior year quarter. With respect to non-cash expenses and capital expenditures, depreciation and amortization was $0.9 million.

Stock compensation expense was $1.1 million, and capital expenditures were $0.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. As of December 31st, we had $138.4 million in cash equivalents, and investments. We remain confident this provides us with cash runway at least into 2026. Turning to our 2023 outlook, my comments will be focused on the full year and the first quarter. For the full year 2023, we expect our commercial revenue to be at least $22 million, which assumes that we will place at least 15 systems and represents growth of at least 30%. For Q1, we expect commercial revenue of at least $4 million, which assumes at least two system placements.

From there, we expect to continue to build momentum as we move through the year with commercial revenue and system placements accelerating as we move into the second half, peaking in Q4. Having said that, we continue to be subject to quarter-to-quarter variability in the timing of system placements and therefore revenue. As Rob mentioned, most geographies are essentially back to pre-pandemic operations. However, we are still operating in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. As a result, our guidance reflects our expectation that we will continue to see uncertainty and variability in some customer purchase decisions, including longer than expected lead times for some multi-system orders. With respect to other revenue streams, we expect the fact that we placed nine systems in 2022 to result in lower revenue growth and service mainly related to validations and to a lesser extent, consumables in 2023 as compared to 2022.

We expect to complete at least 14 validations in 2023 with at least two in the first quarter. Based on our revenue outlook, we expect our Q1 gross margin to be similar to Q4 2022 and then improve as the year progresses as cost reduction and manufacturing efficiency initiatives generate benefits and volume leverage increases. With respect to operating expenses, we expect quarterly OpEx to be between $12.5 million and $13.5 million in 2023, with variability mainly driven by $1.8 million in non-recurring restructuring and related expenses that will impact the first three quarters of the year, as well as the timing of certain new product development activities. Finally, we expect cash burn to be roughly $40 million in 2023.

This includes a meaningful positive contribution from working capital, particularly as a result of inventory reduction initiatives and approximately $2 million of CapEx spend. We expect this to put us at or slightly below $100 million in cash and investments at the end of 2023. That concludes my comments on our full year and Q1 outlook. At this point, we'll open the call up for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Dan Arias from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Dan Arias
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the questions. Sean, maybe just to start on the guide, at least $22 million. Obviously, that leaves the door open to something higher. Rob's initial comment sounded pretty confident, I guess I would say. You know, you did highlight uncertainty and lead times, that you'll be dealing with this year. Can you just talk to where you think the biggest swing factors are for the year? Is it macro-related or is it more Rapid related? Then ultimately, how conservative or not conservative you think this outlook is?

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Hey, Dan, it's Rob. I'll take the first slice of that and Sean can weigh in. Yeah. Our goal for guidance was to put up something that we believe is fully achievable. Now I'll kind of go through how we thought about it. This may answer some other questions on the phone, but sort of on the side that gives us confidence in what we're seeing is number one, the environment, as we touched on in our remarks, is basically back to pre-pandemic levels. The quality and type and frequency of customer interactions is robust and very encouraging to include in-person events, which is critical to our sales process, as you know.

Critically, customers are engaged with us in the process, and we're seeing those leading indicators that gives us confidence. Customers going through facility planning, right? Global coordination for multi-site orders, which tends to be a part of the process to getting multi-site order as customers harmonize on our platform, the site alignment. We're seeing business cases being developed and work through procurement processes. That is a, you know, a encouraging, outlook for us. Our team deployment training is going well, just coming off our global sales meeting, and the team is engaged and going after it. We touched on this in the remarks as well, but our Asia-Pacific region is, call it, up and running, largely, and we do expect contribution from North America, Europe, and Asia in 2023.

Our funnel, again, has a good mix of new and existing opportunities to include multi-system opportunities for both new and existing customers. The sum total of that gives us, you know, good confidence in the year, offset by, you know, the generally the macroeconomic overlay that's out there that can, you know, create headwinds to certain budgeting processes and availability, cost of capital. We have seen, you know, last minute or late-breaking, you know, budget moves. That's also weighing. The sum total of this, a bit of a long answer. I wanted to give you a full perspective on how we thought about the year.

Dan Arias
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

No, that's helpful context. I mean, I guess to your last point, are you do you feel like the budget at this point, as we stand here in the beginning of March, are generally set, you've gotten past the period of budgeting uncertainty? Or are you still dealing with that factor as we head into the end of 1Q, it's a matter of how that shapes up for the, you know, over the next couple of months?

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah. I think it's generally set, Dan, but there's always some risk, especially when, you know, our customers are going through their year as well and their results, you know, come in. There's always some chance of that or some other critical priority comes up, I would say unrelated to the macroeconomy, or facilities related, that can always sort of delay things or move budget around. I would say your budgets are. We've got decent clarity on budgets generally, but the macroeconomic environment does seem to be weighing on, I'll call it, you know, some of our customers' minds.

Dan Arias
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Yeah. Okay, if I could just ask one follow-up. Sean, on the revenue mix, can you just help us with the way that you see that trending over time? I mean, I know you don't want to get too far into a long-term forecast. One of the things that was attractive at the time of the IPO was just the way that the P&L was shaping up when it comes to the percentage of sales that were coming from recurring revenues. I think you had a goal of getting to 50% by 2026, I believe. Is there anything you can help us with as far as, like, a refreshed view or an updated view on just the progression and the shift that you see there?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

I mean, I think with what we've experienced with placements over the past, you know, 5-6 quarters, you know, we actually are way ahead of schedule if you look at the revenue mix in terms of recurring. I think, you know, we had 40% recurring revenue growth in 2022. That was a point of important strength for us. I think we're gonna stay a little bit ahead of where we thought we'd be. You know, we shouldn't be, you know. I think if you look over the course of this year, you know, that's still gonna be, you know, well over 50% of the revenue recurring. I wouldn't expect that to continue over time. I'd expect us to more balance out.

I think the critical thing as we look at the business, and I think Rob touched on this, I mean, number one priority for us is getting system placements going again. If you look back a couple of years, you know, I think the kind of mix of revenue that we saw then is something that we're working to get back to a large extent, where, you know, we drive placement growth, placement growth drives validation and service growth.

That service growth then drives consumable growth, and that recurring, you know, that percentage drifts up with that. I think, Dan, you know, I think we were down in the 40% range in terms of recurring a couple of years ago, maybe even a little bit below that. We're well above 50% now. I expect that to even out over the longer term as we get back to more significant placement growth and we get that kind of engine running again with service and consumables.

Dan Arias
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Yeah. Very good. Thank you, guys.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Sure.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tejas Savant from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Yuko Oku
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hello, this is Yuko on the call for Tejas. Thank you for taking our question. Could you outline priorities for investment in light of focus on cash preservation and cost cuts? Also, are you putting in any contribution from new products, namely the RMB Nucleus Mold Alarm software, into the guide?

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

With regard to investment priorities in the business is consistent with our core planks of our business strategy. Number one is accelerating system placements, so that's investment in commercial and related activity. Investment in new product development is a clear priority as well, and investment in efficiency activities constitute the bulk of our investment approach and portfolio. I'll pass on for the second part of that question.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah. Just on that first point, I'd say, you know, obviously, Yuko, we did a restructuring back in August, you know, to take some cost out of the system here. Within those investment areas, we're gonna be very targeted. Every decision we make around investments is grounded in being responsible stewards of our cash. That is top of mind in every discussion around investment that we have, but we are gonna continue to make those investments going forward.

That's the plan. On new product contribution, specifically Mold Alarm, our goal for 2023 with Mold Alarm is to, you know, is to basically get it out there in the market, work with a number of our customers to get them using the product, so that they're in a spot where when we get to 2024, they're ready to sign up for recurring annual subscriptions to that software. Having said that, you know, we do have a bit of a contribution. I'd say it's very modest in our forecast for this year in our guidance, but I'd expect that to be much more meaningful as we move out of 2023 and get more into those annual subscription periods in 2024 and beyond.

Yuko Oku
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That was helpful. In your prior comments indicated gross margin positive potentially by late 2023, if you place high single digit placements in 4Q. Is achieving gross margin positive in late 2023 embedded into your guidance?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

I'd say, the guidance would get us very close, but not quite there in Q4. you know, I think high single-digit systems, you know, would likely get us there in Q4. I think what we have said, and just to reiterate, is if we look at the full year 2024, we expect the year to be positive. you know, based on where our guidance is right now, we would not anticipate getting there in Q4. We'd be very close, and with some upside, we could potentially get there.

Yuko Oku
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Then one more, if I may. You mentioned 14 validations expected in 2023, but given lag between system placements and validation and soft system placements last year, could you help us think about how you're thinking about pace of validating systems in 2023? Should we expect that to be spread roughly evenly across the quarters or more back-end weighted?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

A bit more back-end weighted, but I wouldn't overstate that. You know, I think there's a couple important things to say on this topic, Yuko, that I'll hit. One is, you know, we do have more than the number of systems we validated last year, kind of in our validation backlog, either in process or waiting to start. Just to kind of hit that question head on, you know, we do have some customers, I'd say it's the minority, but there are some where they're waiting for some type of construction, anything from getting air and power and data into a room to a complete site build. That means the customer's got a system that's waiting to go in, and there's the delay as we wait for that construction to be completed.

That is a factor that you should be aware of that contributes to that number being a little bit higher than what we've placed in the last year plus. And then as we go forward, as you think about the systems that we placed this year, you know, we are working very hard, as you know, to shrink the time to get a validation completed, and that differs between new customers and existing customers typically. That's an important mix question, as you think about modeling it. You know, typically as you look at placements in the second half of the year, there aren't many of those that are going to get fully validated before you hit the end of the year.

Our opportunity to complete validation on systems placed this year is really going to be focused on the front part of the year. You know, that, as we've indicated, the sequencing for the guidance is going to be the lower end of the system placements in the year. Just those are important things I think to keep in mind as you think about, the question you asked.

Yuko Oku
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. That was very helpful color. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, guys. This is Casey on for Rachel. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess, can you elaborate on the unplanned downtime that contributed to flat sequential margins here on the gross line? Can you maybe quantify how much of a headwind this was? You know, why it was unplanned? Then, you know, just maybe the cadence of gross margin expansion embedded in the guide? I think you mentioned that you're going to see, you know, flat gross margins in 1 Q. You know, is there more downtime kind of embedded in there? You know, how should we think about that?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yep. Sure, Casey. You know, we do have some downtime that's planned. This was not what we encountered in this particular situation. You know, we've looked at the causes of the unplanned downtime. We understand them, we've addressed them, and, you know, we feel good that they won't recur. We'll continue to focus on that and make sure that we do what we can to make sure that's what actually rolls out. As you think about 2023 guidance, we have not assumed that we see a recurrence of that. We believe we've kind of addressed what we ran into in Q4. In terms of the impact, it was meaningful.

We're not going to give a quantified number, but, you know, I'd say it's the number one contributor of our variance from what we expected in the fourth quarter in terms of margin performance, compared to what we thought going into the quarter.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Got it.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

You asked about cadence in... Sorry, Casey.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Didn't mean to interrupt. You asked about cadence in 2023. You're right. We guided that we think Q1 will look a lot like Q4. I think that's true for the quarter in general. Then as we work our way through the year, given what I said a few minutes ago, you know, we expect to end the year getting pretty close to positive in Q4. You know, I think if you kind of roll out the revenue guidance we gave and the sequencing there with the volume increases that should come along with that, I'd expect to see the margins follow pretty closely in terms of the step-up as you work your way through the year.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Got it. That's helpful. Just on the pull-through per instrument, on the consumable side, I think this year was around $80,000 per system. You know, at our conference, you talked about pull-through increasing high singles to potentially mid-teens in 2023. I guess, can you just walk through what's embedded in the 2023 guidance from a instrument pull-through perspective? You know, what needs to happen for you guys to get to the high end of that range? Yeah, puts and takes into that range.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah. We did finish the year in 2022 around that $80,000 mark, excuse me. The guidance has built into it, I think in the high single digits in terms of the full year growth in that metric, and I'd expect us to start the year in the first half below where that would put us and to finish the year above where that would put us. You know, I think the things. In moving validations ahead in line with what we expect is critical to make sure that happens.

You know, as is some of the things we're working on around what we refer to as Project Rapid, where we're doing things to reduce the amount of time it takes to actually get a validation completed. I'd say we haven't assumed heroics on those things to get to the guidance number. So there is potentially upside there if we can over-execute on that. Those are the main things that would drive our ability to get to that range and that, you know, high single-digit type growth number for the year versus the 80.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Got it. Maybe just how should we think about instrument ASP in 2023? Just curious if you have a plan on moving price around just given the macro environment one way or the other.

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah. you know, we have a mix. We, we generally took prices up this year. I'm not gonna get into a lot of specifics, but I think as we look at ASPs on systems, we do expect a modest increase in ASPs, as we compare 2023 to 2022.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Gotcha. Maybe if I can just squeeze one last one in. you know, the guide is pretty back-end loaded. Just, can you talk generally about your visibility into those placements in the back half of the year? you know, two placements in 1Q, 15 on the year. To get to that high single-digit placement number in 4Q, I guess, how much visibility do you have into that from, you know, a customer conversation perspective? Thank you.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah, Casey, it's Rob. Yeah, as I touched on, in the intro, question by Dan, what's giving us, you know, confidence in the guide is the conversations we're having with customers, in some cases regarding their purchase intentions on multiple systems and just the shape of the process and when we expect things to land. And of course, we're, you know, we're still, you know, we're still, you know, kind of ramping into the year. So, as well as, you know, a broader sort of mix of other opportunities we have in our funnel, across all our regions. Sort of the sum total of this kind of gives us the confidence in the outlook. It also, just practically speaking, is kind of how we think about the year rolling out with a bit more on the back end, the back end waiting.

Casey Woodring
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, great. Thank you, guys.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Thank you.

Operator

Our last question comes from Max Masucci from TD Cowen. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Stephanie Yan
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Hi, this is Stephanie on for Max. Thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions have already been asked, but if I can ask a couple of quick ones. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you have about 20 or so events and conferences planned for the year, which is great to hear. As you head into 2023, what are the key catalysts and milestones that we should be keeping an eye on for the year?

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

The, you know, the key milestones we have in our year with regard to external-facing shows of... Our largest one is end of the year, which is PDA. If Stephanie, if your question is referring to the publicly facing or open trade shows. If not, you know, please steer me. With regard to milestones, PDA is a big one. We've got a collection of other events around the world that we'll attend. We're always excited about our Growth Direct Day, which is a chance to bring together a number of new and prospective customers. Typically, this is centered around Europe.

We're hopeful to have one in the U.S. this year as well, which is a really good chance to bring the ecosystem together, to come together and do all things Growth Direct for a full day. I wouldn't call it a catalyst per se, but it's certainly a milestone as we think about interacting with key customers around the world.

Stephanie Yan
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Got it. No, that's helpful. Thanks for that. On the consumable utilization side, I know this has already been touched on a bit in the Q&A, but, you know, how quickly have existing customers been ramping on that consumable utilization versus your expectations? Do you see that there could be potential for further acceleration, versus your expectations, for the year?

Sean Wirtjes
CFO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Yeah, I'll start. Maybe Rob will have a comment as well. I think it depends on the customer. I think in general, we are improving in terms of how we work with our customers to help them make that transition more quickly. A lot of times it is heavily dependent upon their situation and resourcing and plan. Having said that, you know, that's getting better. I would also say that we are continuing to work with customers to find different ways to, even when they're in routine use and pulling through kind of where we originally expected them to increase that utilization.

Whether it's new applications, you know, we have customers who are adding products or they're getting new indications to existing products where they need more capacity or they have the ability to utilize more capacity on the system. That's also a way that we believe over time we're gonna be able to get that pull-through number higher for the business.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Just a couple other comments to that, Stephanie. We have a dedicated sales people/consultants that work with our customers in our across our regions to do just that, to ramp them as quickly as possible into routine use after validations, any training required, but certainly any ordering required, standing orders. Basically to be easy to work with and kind of grease the gears to move consumables through more quickly. To Sean's point, we also track the capacity in any systems and seek to sell, if you will, new applications onto any open capacity and of course, look for opportunities inside any manufacturing plant.

If a customer, for example, has automated environmental monitoring, there's opportunities to further automate, water and bioburden applications, which could be put on existing capacity or many times triggers a purchase of a new system. Think of it as a organic sale to a customer. In most cases, it's opportunity within an actual manufacturing plant. That's how we seek to, you know, maximize pull-through, and also it's also a great lead source for, new system opportunities as well.

Stephanie Yan
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Got it. Really helpful color there. Thanks for taking my questions.

Robert Spignesi
President and CEO, Rapid Micro Biosystems

Great. Well, thanks, Stephanie, again. We're gonna wrap the live call now. As a reminder, we are attending the TD Cowen Healthcare Conference in Boston next Wednesday, March eighth, and look forward to speaking with many of you in the coming weeks. Thanks everyone for joining us today. Julianne, we'll close the call now.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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